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PDC19 Impact Exercise: Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) - PDC (Planetary Defense Conference) 2019 Hypothetical Exercise, NASA Ames, Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) - Characterization Summary and Updates: Assessment date: 19 April 2027; Impact date: 29 April 2027 (10 days); Earth impact probability: 100 percent, New York Area; Diameter (meters): 60 plus or minus 10 (1 minus sigma), range 26–93; Energy: mean 11 megatons, range 650 kilotons to 46 megatons; Type: S class, remaining chunk of disrupted contact binary. Risk Summary: Affected population: mean 2.4 million, range zero to 10.2 million; Likely airburst at approximately16 kilometers altitude (8 to 29 kilometers); Blast overpressure is primary hazard; Damage out to approximately 70 kilometers if larger, lower burst; Little-to-no damage if burst is small and high.

Wheeler, Lorien↗

Lessons Learned from the Flight Unit Testing of the Near Earth Asteroid Scout Flight System

The Near Earth Asteroid Scout flight mission is set to launch on the maiden voyage of the Space Launch System as a secondary payload. The spacecraft will be jettisoned in cis-lunar space and embark on an ambitious 2.5 year mission to image an asteroid. The spacecraft is uniquely equipped with an 85m2 solar sail as the main propulsion system. The monolithic sail system is designed to package within a 6U volume for launch and then deploy during flight. The NEA Scout team has presented in the past to the International Symposium on Solar Sailing topics related to the engineering development unit and design efforts to achieve flight hardware build. This paper will focus on the lessons learned from building and testing the NEA Scout flight system. Focus will be on the mechanical, software, and electrical interfaces as well as preparation for subsystem environmental tests, including thermal vacuum. Due to the unique design of the spacecraft, the solar sail subsystem was required to be located in the center of the spacecraft. This requirement lead to design challenges such as designing and accommodating critical cable harnesses to run through the center of the sail subsystem, packaging and deployment design of the sail subsystem, and integrated testing efforts through an avionics test bed to verify and validate a complete system architecture.

Lockett, Tiffany Russell↗

Episodes of Particle Ejection from the Surface of the Active Asteroid (101955) Bennu

Active asteroids are those that show evidence of ongoing mass loss. We report repeated instances of particle ejection from the surface of (101955) Bennu, demonstrating that it is an active asteroid. The ejection events were imaged by the OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer) spacecraft. For the three largest observed events, we estimated the ejected particle velocities and sizes, event times, source regions, and energies. We also determined the trajectories and photometric properties of several gravitationally bound particles that orbited temporarily in the Bennu environment. We consider multiple hypotheses for the mechanisms that lead to particle ejection for the largest events, including rotational disruption, electrostatic lofting, ice sublimation, phyllosilicate dehydration, meteoroid impacts, thermal stress fracturing, and secondary impacts.

Lauretta, D. S.↗

Spectrometer Scan Mechanism for Encountering Jovian Orbit Trojan Asteroids

This paper describes the design, testing, and lessons learned during the development of the Lucy Ralph (L'Ralph) Scan Mirror System (SMS), composed of the Scan Mirror Mechanism (SMM), Differential Position Sensor System (DPSS) and Mechanism Control Electronics (MCE). The L'Ralph SMS evolved from the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) Beam Steering Mechanism (BSM), so design comparisons will be made. Lucy is scheduled to launch in October 2021, embarking upon a 12-year mission to make close range encounters in 2025 and 2033 with seven Trojan asteroids and one main belt asteroid that are within the Jovian orbit. The L'Ralph instrument is based upon the New Horizons Ralph instrument, which is a panchromatic and color visible imager and infrared spectroscopic mapper that slewed the spacecraft for imaging. The L'Ralph SMM is to provide scanning for imaging to eliminate the need to slew the spacecraft. One purpose of this paper is to gain understanding of the reasoning behind some of the design features as compared with the ATLAS BSM. We will identify similarities and differences between the ATLAS BSM and the L'Ralph SMM that resulted from the latter's unique requirements. Another purpose of this paper is to focus upon "Lessons Learned" that came about during the development of the L'Ralph SMM and its MCE, both mechanism engineering issues and solutions as well as Ground Support Equipment (GSE) issues and solutions that came about during the validation of requirements process. At the time of this writing, the L'Ralph SMM has been flight qualified and delivered to the project.

Blumenstock, Kenneth A.↗

Impact of Phyllosilicates on Amino Acid Formation under Asteroidal Conditions

The emergence of life on Earth could have benefitted from an extraterrestrial source of amino acids. Yet, the origin of these amino acids is still debated because they may have formed prior to the solar nebula or inside the parent body of meteorites. Here, we experimentally produced amino acids by exposing an interstellar model molecule (hexamethylenetetramine) to asteroid-like hydrothermal conditions (150 °C; pH 10). We conducted additional experiments in the presence of carboxylic acids and phyllosilicates to simulate asteroidal environments. Analyses via liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry show that glycine is the most abundant amino acid formed, but non-proteinogenic α-, β-, and γ-amino acids are also produced. This production of amino acids seems to be hampered by the presence of Fe-rich smectites, while the presence of Al-rich smectites largely stimulates it. Our findings evidence (1) the production of amino acids during hydrothermal alteration of a putative interstellar precursor, (2) the importance of the formose reaction from formaldehyde and ammonia, for amino acid synthesis in meteorites, and (3) the impact of organic–mineral interactions on the nature/distribution of the amino acids produced. Altogether, the fact that the production of amino acids, which are so central to living structures, can be achieved via organo–mineral interactions under hydrothermal conditions should put these processes at a focal point for research on the origin of extraterrestrial organic compounds and into the origin of life.

Jason Peter Dworkin↗

Widespread carbon-bearing materials on near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu

(101955) Bennu is a dark, Earth orbit-crossing, asteroid thought to be assembled from the fragments of an ancient collision. Spatially-resolved visible and near-infrared spectra of Bennu provide details about its surface properties and composition. In addition to a hydrated phyllosilicate band, we detect a ubiquitous 3.4-micron absorption feature, which we attribute to a mix of organic and carbonate materials. The shape and depth of this absorption feature vary across Bennu’s surface, spanning the range seen among similar main-belt asteroids. Its distribution does not correlate with the temperature, reflectance, spectral slope, or hydrated minerals although those characteristics correlate with each other in some cases. The deepest 3.4-micron absorptions occur on individual boulders. The variations may be due to differences in abundance, recent exposure, or space weathering.

Amy A. Simon↗

Volatile-rich Asteroids in the Inner Solar System

Bennu (101195), target of the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security, Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission, is a type-B asteroid with abundant spectral evidence for hydrated silicates, low thermal inertia “boulders” and frequent bursts of particle emission. We suggest that Bennu’s parent body formed in the outer solar system before it was perturbed into the asteroid belt and then evolved into a near-Earth object. We show that this is consistent with models of planetesimal evolution. Bennu has many characteristics expected for a dormant comet, and could potentially contain a minimum of 1 wt.% adsorbed water if its gross mineralogy is consistent with the Orgueil meteorite. This is in addition to any ice or water contained within the hydrous minerals themselves. Based on this hypothesis, we predict the properties of the samples that will be returned to Earth by the OSIRIS-REx mission, including abundant phyllosilicate minerals, amorphous hydrated silicates and low-density, very high-porosity aggregates, already observed by the OSIRIS-REx instrument suite. We predict enrichments in D/H and 15N/14N, high C/Mg ratios (>∼7 wt%), and a greater range of organic compositions than found in meteorites, including an organic component poor in aromatics, and a more labile organic fraction. Ammonium salts, ranging from NH4Cl to ammonium–organic acid salts could carry much of the nitrogen in comets, yet only NH4CH3COO and heavier salts are sufficiently stable to be found in these returned samples. Water adsorbed onto highly porous grains should also be detected provided that the sample return capsule remains below 300 K during Earth return, and this water should be isotopically heavy.

Joseph A. Nuth, III↗

MultiLayer Clustered Sampling (MLCS) technique for near-earth asteroid impact hazard assessment

Because of planetary encounters, the motion of near-Earth asteroids is chaotic and small differences in the initial conditions tend to diverge exponentially. Linear approximations for propagating orbital uncertainties can lead to inaccurate estimates of the probability of an Earth collision. We present a novel fully nonlinear strategy for estimating the probability of an asteroid impact using sequential Monte Carlo layers. The method first explores a low-resolution layer to locate potentially relevant regions. Then, we conduct localized searches on deeper layers with higher resolution. The method retains the accuracy of brute-force Monte Carlo sampling while reducing the computational cost by only sampling relevant regions.

Farnocchia, Davide↗

Precision Asteroid Astrometry

Among the methods used to guide spacecraft to their destinations, Optical Navigation (OpNav) remains an effective option. OpNav makes use of star fields and small body ephemerides to precisely locate spacecraft. To facilitate accurate OpNav, the small body ephemerides must be constantly updated; asteroid orbits accumulate errors each year of a few milliarcseconds. Through extended exposures, taken with strategic offsets, a least-squares solution can be found that determines updated ephemeris data. This updated data can also be used by occultation astronomers to gain further information about the small bodies, including their size and shape. Using the 24-inch telescope at the Caltech Table Mountain Observatory (TMO), we capture two or more 180 second exposures of each target. These images, combined with a file for the predicted background star field and two reference files, are then processed through a series of scripts and programs. Starting with a prediction file and two to five exposures of the asteroid, the data is processed. This original data is about 32MB per observation. Once the data are reduced to only Right Ascension and Declination for each target, the data are ready for delivery. This consists of text only, and for each target takes about 80 bytes; this resulting data reduction is about five orders of magnitude. This method produces observed positions that are refined by about 12 milliarcseconds, a refinement that is accomplished almost nowhere else. The occultation observations that are facilitated by the ephemerides being refined also produce results that are not possible in any other way from ground-based observations.

Dial, Jason↗

A new environment to simulate the dynamics in the close proximity of rubble-pile asteroids

This paper presents a new environment to simulate close-proximity dynamics around rubble-pile asteroids. The code provides methods for modeling the asteroid’s gravity field and surface through granular dynamics. It implements stateof-the-art techniques to model both gravity and contact interaction between particles: 1) mutual gravity as either direct N2 or Barnes-Hut GPU-parallel octree and 2) contact dynamics with a soft-body (force-based, smooth dynamics), hard-body (constraint-based, non-smooth dynamics), or hybrid (constraint-based with compliance and damping) approach. A very relevant feature of the code is its ability to handle complex-shaped rigid bodies and their full 6D motion. Examples of spacecraft close-proximity scenarios and their numerical simulations are shown.

Ferrari, Fabio↗

The operational environment and rotational acceleration of asteroid (101955) Bennu from OSIRIS-REx observations

During its approach to asteroid (101955) Bennu, NASA's Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) spacecraft surveyed Bennu's immediate environment, photometric properties, and rotation state. Discovery of a dusty environment, a natural satellite, or unexpected asteroid characteristics would have had consequences for the mission's safety and observation strategy. Here we show that spacecraft observations during this period were highly sensitive to satellites (sub-meter scale) but reveal none, although later navigational images indicate that further investigation is needed. We constrain average dust production in September 2018 from Bennu's surface to an upper limit of 150g s −1 averaged over 34 min. Bennu's disk-integrated photometric phase function validates measurements from the pre-encounter astronomical campaign. We demonstrate that Bennu's rotation rate is accelerating continuously at 3.63+- 0.52 x10 −6 degrees A day -2 , likely due to the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect, with evolutionary implications.

Carl William Hergenrother↗

The unexpected surface of asteroid (101955) Bennu

NASA’S Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification and Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) spacecraft recently arrived at the near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu, a primitive body that represents the objects that may have brought prebiotic molecules and volatiles such as water to Earth1. Bennu is a low-albedo B-type asteroid2 that has been linked to organic-rich hydrated carbonaceous chondrites3. Such meteorites are altered by ejection from their parent body and contaminated by atmospheric entry and terrestrial microbes. Therefore, the primary mission objective is to return a sample of Bennu to Earth that is pristine—that is, not affected by these processes4. The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft carries a sophisticated suite of instruments to characterize Bennu’s global properties, support the selection of a sampling site and document that site at a sub-centimetre scale5,6,7,8,9,10,11. Here we consider early OSIRIS-REx observations of Bennu to understand how the asteroid’s properties compare to pre-encounter expectations and to assess the prospects for sample return. The bulk composition of Bennu appears to be hydrated and volatile-rich, as expected. However, in contrast to pre-encounter modelling of Bennu’s thermal inertia12 and radar polarization ratios13—which indicated a generally smooth surface covered by centimetre-scale particles—resolved imaging reveals an unexpected surficial diversity. The albedo, texture, particle size and roughness are beyond the spacecraft design specifications. On the basis of our pre-encounter knowledge, we developed a sampling strategy to target 50-metre-diameter patches of loose regolith with grain sizes smaller than two centimetres4. We observe only a small number of apparently hazard-free regions, of the order of 5 to 20 metres in extent, the sampling of which poses a substantial challenge to mission success.

D. S. Lauretta↗

The operational environment and rotational acceleration of asteroid (101955) Bennu from OSIRIS-REx observations

During its approach to asteroid (101955) Bennu, NASA’s Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) spacecraft surveyed Bennu’s immediate environment, photometric properties, and rotation state. Discovery of a dusty environment, a natural satellite, or unexpected asteroid characteristics would have had consequences for the mission’s safety and observation strategy. Here we show that spacecraft observations during this period were highly sensitive to satellites (sub-meter scale) but reveal none, although later navigational images indicate that further investigation is needed. We constrain average dust production in September 2018 from Bennu’s surface to an upper limit of 150 g/s averaged over 34 min. Bennu’s disk-integrated photometric phase function validates measurements from the pre-encounter astronomical campaign. We demonstrate that Bennu’s rotation rate is accelerating continuously at 3.63 ± 0.52 × 10^(–6) degrees/sq. day, likely due to the Yarkovsky–O’Keefe–Radzievskii–Paddack (YORP) effect, with evolutionary implications.

C. W. Hergenrother↗

Understanding Space Weathering of Carbonaceous Asteroids through H+ and He+ Ion Irradiation of the Murchison Meteorite

Airless planetary bodies are subject to space weathering processes such as micrometeoroid bombardment and solar wind irradiation. These processes alter the microstructural, chemical, and optical properties of planetary regoliths and, in turn, complicate interpretations of surface composition from remote sensing data and matching of meteorites to their parent bodies. Unlike lunar and ordinary chondrite materials, space weathering studies of primitive carbonaceous chondrites are still evolving [1]. Investigations that examine the spectral, microstructural, and chemical effects of space weathering on carbonaceous materials are critical for maximizing the scientific return of ongoing and future missions to C-complex asteroids, like the NASA OSIRIS-REx (Bennu) and JAXA Hayabusa2 (Ryugu) missions[2,3]. Here, we present results from our experimental simulation of solar wind weathering on organic-rich, C-complex asteroid surfaces in which we irradiated a slab of the Murchison CM2 chondrite with 1 keV/amu H+ and He+ ions.

D. L. Laczniak↗

Solar Energetic Particle Tracks in Itokawa Samples: Implications for Regolith Development on Near-Earth Asteroids and Space Weathering

JAXA’s Hayabusa mission returned the first surface samples from a near-Earth asteroid for laboratory analyses. The Hayabusa samples thus provide a special opportunity to directly investigate the evolution of asteroidal surfaces, from the development and evolution of the regolith to the study of space weathering effects. The lack of a protective atmosphere on airless bodies results in regolith grains being exposed to a wide range of radiation sources and effects. We focus here on solar energetic particles (SEP) with Z>20, mainly Fe group nuclei, that leave trails of ionization damage (tracks) in insulating materials that accumulate with time and provide clues about the near-surface exposure age of regolith materials.

L P Keller↗

Spectrally Blue Parent Body of Asteroid (162173) Ryugu and its Hydrothermal History

Small rubble pile asteroids record the thermal evolution of their much larger parent bodies. However, recent ‘space weathering’ and/or ‘solar heating’ create ambiguities between the uppermost layer observable by remote-sensing and the pristine material from the parent body. Hayabusa2 remote-sensing observations found that on the asteroid (162173) Ryugu both north and south pole regions preserve the material least processed by space weathering: spectrally blue carbonaceous chondritic material with a 0.7-μm band absorption, indicative of Fe-bearing phyllosilicates. This discovery suggests that Ryugu’s parent body experienced intensive aqueous alteration and subsequent thermal metamorphism at 670 – 970 K. Ryugu’s parent body was heated by radioactive decay of short-lived radionuclides possibly because of its early formation 2-2.5 Ma. Ryugu’s parent body which is spectrally blue represents some of the most ancient of carbonaceous chondritic compositions from the solar system. The samples being brought to Earth by Hayabusa2 will give us our first insights into this epoch in solar system history.

Eri Tatsumi↗

Mineralogy and Space Weathering of Fine Fraction Recovered from Asteroid (162173) Ryugu

JAXA Hayabusa2 spacecraft brought back 5.4 g of samples from the near-Earth C-type asteroid (162173) Ryugu to Earth on December6th, 2020 [1]. The returned samples give us a unique opportunity to investigate material from the surface of a C-type asteroid that is expected to record space weathering. Here, we report the mineralogy of fine fraction of the Ryugu grains and a variation of their surface features related to space weathering.

T. Noguchi↗

Spectral Properties of Dust on Asteroid (101955) Bennu with the OSIRIS-REx Visible and Infrared Spectrometer (OVIRS)

The Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) spacecraft successfully collected a sample of regolith from asteroid (101955) Bennu on October 20, 2020[1]. The Touch-and-Go (TAG) spacecraft maneuver used to collect the sample mobilized material, including very fine particles (dust),from up to ~1m in depth and ~10m in diameter from the point of contact with the asteroid [1,2].TAG created a dust plume that intercepted the spacecraft and accumulated on the instruments. As a result, all instruments show degradation in optical throughput, with the degree of degradation depending on their aperture size, orientation, and position on the spacecraft [1]. In this study, we analyzed OSIRIS-REx Visible and Infrared Spectrometer (OVIRS) from before and after TAG to assess the dust on the instrument with implications for Bennu’s dust composition and scattering properties, and future visible–near-infrared (VNIR)spectral observations with the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft. OVIRS is a point spectrometer that measures reflected light at VNIR wavelengths from 0.4 to 4.3 μm with a 4 mrad circular field of view(FOV) [3]. Previous observations with OVIRS revealed widespread hydrated minerals and carbon-bearing materials on Bennu [4,5]. A ~3 μm absorption feature is observed globally in OVIRS spectra, with a band position and depth that is consistent with Mg/Fe phyllosilicates and suggests a similar degree of aqueous alteration to that experienced by some carbonaceous chondrite meteorites[4,6]. A series of weak (<5%) VNIR spectral features, potentially associated with hydrated phyllosilicates and iron oxides, are also found in OVIRS spectra (Fig. 1), though not typically observed in meteorite spectra [7]. OSIRIS-REx Thermal Emission Spectrometer (OTES) spectra are consistent with a very thin accumulation (a few to ~ten microns) of fine particles (<~65–100 microns in size)across the surface of Bennu, and particularly on the roughest boulders, an interpretation that is supported by the dust plume seen during TAG [1,8]. An analysis of TAG contamination on the OTES optics revealed a 15% decrease in throughput, and OTES observations of space with and without that contamination allow a recreation of the thermal infrared spectrum [1]. The spectrum of the contamination lacks volume scattering features and exhibits a stronger Mg-OH absorption (~16.5 μm) than average Bennu, suggesting a Mg-rich phyllosilicate composition [1,6]. Here we present the first compositional analysis of Bennu dust at VNIR wavelengths by analyzing the contaminant on OVIRS.

H H Kaplan↗