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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Fractional Snowcover Estimates from Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra and Aqua missions has shown considerable capability for mapping snowcover. The typical approach that has used, along with other criteria, the Normalized Snow Difference Index (NDSI) that takes the difference between 500 meter observations at 1.64 micrometers (MODIS band 6) and 0.555 micrometers (MODIS band 4) over the sum of these observations to determine whether MODIS pixels are snowcovered or not in mapping the extent of snowcover. For many hydrological and climate studies using remote sensing of snowcover, it is desirable to assess if the MODIS snowcover observations could not be enhanced by providing the fraction of snowcover in each MODIS observation (pixel). Pursuant to this objective studies have been conducted to assess whether there is sufficient "signal%o in the NDSI parameter to provide useful estimates of fractional snowcover in each MODIS 500 meter pixel. To accomplish this objective high spatial resolution (30 meter) Landsat snowcover observations were used and co-registered with MODIS 500 meter pixels. The NDSI approach was used to assess whether a Landsat pixel was or was not snowcovered. Then the number of snowcovered Landsat pixels within a MODIS pixel was used to determine the fraction of snowcover within each MODIS pixel. The e results were then used to develop statistical relationships between the NDSI value for each 500 meter MODIS pixel and the fraction of snowcover in the MODIS pixel. Such studies were conducted for three widely different areas covered by Landsat scenes in Alaska, Russia, and the Quebec Province in Canada. The statistical relationships indicate that a 10 percent accuracy can be attained. The variability in the statistical relationship for the three areas was found to be remarkably similar (-0.02 for mean error and less than 0.01 for mean absolute error and standard deviation). Independent tests of the relationships were accomplished by taking the relationship of fractional snow-cover to NDSI from one area (e.g., Alaska) and testing it on the other two areas (e.g. Russia and Quebec). Again the results showed that fractional snow-cover can be estimated to 10 percent. The results have been shown to have advantages over other published fractional snowcover algorithms applied to MODIS data. Most recently the fractional snow-cover algorithm has been applied using 500-meter observations over the state of Colorado for a period spanning 25 days. The results exhibit good behavior in mapping the spatial and temporal variability in snowcover over that 25-day period. Overall these studies indicate that robust estimates of fractional snow-cover can be attained using the NDSI parameter over areas extending in size from watersheds relatively large compared to MODIS pixels to global land cover. Other refinements to this approach as well as different approaches are being examined for mapping fractional snow-cover using MODIS observations.

Salomonson, Vincent V.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A remark about pointed bubbles

The polymer expansion is a formal algebraic identity between a partition function and logarithm in statistical physics problems. The expansion gives a systematic method to control the free energy or to establish exponential tree-graph decay of connected correlations. Here, the convergence properties of the polymer expansion are analyzed in connection with three practical examples, including: intersecting bonds in chemical polymer chains; a connected closed hypersurface built from the (d-1)-faces of the d-dimensional unit cubes; and the set of Feynamn diagrams in the perturbation series of the Euclidean field theory partition function Z. The example of connected polymer chains is generalized to apply to other lattice models, including n-state Ising models at high temperature; short range lattice gases at high temperature; and weak coupling lattice field and gauge theories.

Garabedian, P. R.↗
NASA NTRS1987

O 7774 A diagnostic for quiescent prominences

Results are reported from photometric observations and statistical analyses of the O 7774 A (3/5/P yields 3/5/S) transition in quiescent solar prominences. The goal of the study was to derive accurate values for the ratio between the population density of the upper level of the observed transition relative to the total O population. The data were collected with the 25 cm coronagraph/3 m spectrograph at the Mees Solar Observatory. A strong temperature dependence was found for the transition, indicating that the O 7774 A/Na 5890 A ratio is of use for diagnostic studies of quiescent prominences. The possibility of applying the ratio as a diagnostic for spicules is discussed.

Brickhouse, Nancy S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A test of the adhesion approximation for gravitational clustering

We quantitatively compare a particle implementation of the adhesion approximation to fully non-linear, numerical 'N-body' simulations. Our primary tool, cross-correlation of N-body simulations with the adhesion approximation, indicates good agreement, better than that found by the same test performed with the Zel-dovich approximation (hereafter ZA). However, the cross-correlation is not as good as that of the truncated Zel-dovich approximation (TZA), obtained by applying the Zel'dovich approximation after smoothing the initial density field with a Gaussian filter. We confirm that the adhesion approximation produces an excessively filamentary distribution. Relative to the N-body results, we also find that: (a) the power spectrum obtained from the adhesion approximation is more accurate than that from ZA or TZA, (b) the error in the phase angle of Fourier components is worse than that from TZA, and (c) the mass distribution function is more accurate than that from ZA or TZA. It appears that adhesion performs well statistically, but that TZA is more accurate dynamically, in the sense of moving mass to the right place.

Melott, Adrian L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

A test of the adhesion approximation for gravitational clustering

We quantitatively compare a particle implementation of the adhesion approximation to fully nonlinear, numerical 'N-body' simulations. Our primary tool, cross-correlation of N-body simulations with the adhesion approximation, indicates good agreement, better than that found by the same test performed with the Zel'dovich approximation (hereafter ZA). However, the cross-correlation is not as good as that of the truncated Zel'dovich approximation (TZA), obtained by applying the Zel'dovich approximation after smoothing the initial density field with a Gaussian filter. We confirm that the adhesion approximation produces an excessively filamentary distribution. Relative to the N-body results, we also find that: (a) the power spectrum obtained from the adhesion approximation is more accurate that that from ZA to TZA, (b) the error in the phase angle of Fourier components is worse that that from TZA, and (c) the mass distribution function is more accurate than that from ZA or TZA. It appears that adhesion performs well statistically, but that TZA is more accurate dynamically, in the sense of moving mass to the right place.

Melott, Adrian L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Application of Land Surface Data Assimilation to Simulations of Sea Breeze Circulations

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite- observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The sea/land breeze is a well-documented mesoscale circulation that affects many coastal areas of the world including the northern Gulf Coast of the United States. The focus of this paper is to examine how the satellite assimilation technique impacts the simulation of a sea breeze circulation observed along the Mississippi/Alabama coast in the spring of 2001. The technique is implemented within the PSUNCAR MM5 V3-5 and applied at spatial resolutions of 12- and 4-km. It is recognized that even 4-km grid spacing is too coarse to explicitly resolve the detailed, mesoscale structure of sea breezes. Nevertheless, the model can forecast certain characteristics of the observed sea breeze including a thermally direct circulation that results from differential low-level heating across the land-sea interface. Our intent is to determine the sensitivity of the circulation to the differential land surface forcing produced via the assimilation of GOES skin temperature tendencies. Results will be quantified through statistical verification techniques.

Mackaro, Scott↗
NASA NTRS2010

Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to Launch Vehicle Design and Requirements Analysis

This Technical Publication (TP) is meant to address a number of topics related to the application of Monte Carlo simulation to launch vehicle design and requirements analysis. Although the focus is on a launch vehicle application, the methods may be applied to other complex systems as well. The TP is organized so that all the important topics are covered in the main text, and detailed derivations are in the appendices. The TP first introduces Monte Carlo simulation and the major topics to be discussed, including discussion of the input distributions for Monte Carlo runs, testing the simulation, how many runs are necessary for verification of requirements, what to do if results are desired for events that happen only rarely, and postprocessing, including analyzing any failed runs, examples of useful output products, and statistical information for generating desired results from the output data. Topics in the appendices include some tables for requirements verification, derivation of the number of runs required and generation of output probabilistic data with consumer risk included, derivation of launch vehicle models to include possible variations of assembled vehicles, minimization of a consumable to achieve a two-dimensional statistical result, recontact probability during staging, ensuring duplicated Monte Carlo random variations, and importance sampling.

Hanson, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Statistical Signal Analysis for Systems with Interferenced Inputs

A new approach is introduced, based on statistical signal analysis, which overcomes the error due to input signal interference. The model analyzed is given. The input signals u sub 1 (t) and u sub 2 (t) are assumed to be unknown. The measurable signals x sub 1 (t) and x sub 2 (t) are interferened according to the frequency response functions, H sub 12 (f) and H sub 21 (f). The goal of the analysis was to evaluate the power output due to each input, u sub 1 (t) and u sub 2 (t), for the case where both are applied to the same time. In addition, all frequency response functions are calculated. The interferenced system is described by a set of five equations with six unknown functions. An IBM XT Personal Computer, which was interfaced with the FFT, was used to solve the set of equations. The software was tested on an electrical two-input, one-output system. The results were excellent. The research presented includes the analysis of the acoustic radiation from a rectangular plate with two force inputs and the sound pressure as an output signal.

Bai, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

A new approach for determining fully empirical altimeter wind speed model functions

A statistical technique is developed for determining fully empirical model functions relating altimeter backscatter (sigma(sub 0)) measurements to near-surface neutral stability wind speed. By assuming that sigma(sub 0) varies monotonically and uniquely with wind speed, the method requires knowledge only of the separate, rather than joint distribution functions of sigma(sub 0) and wind speed. Analytic simplifications result from using a Weibull distribution to approximate the global ocean wind speed distribution; several different wind data sets are used to demonstrate the validity of the Weibull approximation. The technique has been applied to 1 year of Geosat data. Validation of the new and historical model functions using an independent buoy data set demonstrates that the present model function not only has small overall bias and root mean square (RMS) errors, but yields smaller systematic error trends with wind speed and pseudowave age than previously published models. The present analysis suggests that generally accuracte altimeter model functions can be derived without the use of colocated measurements, nor is additional significant wave height information measured by the altimeter necessary.

Freilich, M. H.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Land Surface Data Assimilation and the Northern Gulf Coast Land/Sea Breeze

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The sea/land breeze is a well-documented mesoscale circulation that affects many coastal areas of the world including the northern Gulf Coast of the United States. The focus of this paper is to examine how the satellite assimilation technique impacts the simulation of a sea breeze circulation observed along the Mississippi/Alabama coast in the spring of 2001. The technique is implemented within the PSU/NCAR MM5 V3-4 and applied on a 4-km domain for this particular application. It is recognized that a 4-km grid spacing is too coarse to explicitly resolve the detailed, mesoscale structure of sea breezes. Nevertheless, the model can forecast certain characteristics of the observed sea breeze including a thermally direct circulation that results from differential low-level heating across the land-sea interface. Our intent is to determine the sensitivity of the circulation to the differential land surface forcing produced via the assimilation of GOES skin temperature tendencies. Results will be quantified through statistical verification techniques.

Lapenta, William M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Skin Temperature Observations into Land Surface Models

Land surface (or "skin") temperature (LST) lies at the heart of the surface energy balance and is a key variable in weather and climate models. Here we assimilate LST retrievals from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) into the Noah and Catchment (CLSM) land surface models using an ensemble-based, off-line land data assimilation system. LST is described very differently in the two models. A priori scaling and dynamic bias estimation approaches are applied because satellite and model LST typically exhibit different mean values and variability. Performance is measured against 27 months of in situ measurements from the Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project at 48 stations. LST estimates from Noah and CLSM without data assimilation ("open loop") are comparable to each other and superior to that of ISCCP retrievals. For LST, RMSE values are 4.9 K (CLSM), 5.6 K (Noah), and 7.6 K (ISCCP), and anomaly correlation coefficients (R) are 0.62 (CLSM), 0.61 (Noah), and 0.52 (ISCCP). Assimilation of ISCCP retrievals provides modest yet statistically significant improvements (over open loop) of up to 0.7 K in RMSE and 0.05 in anomaly R. The skill of surface turbulent flux estimates from the assimilation integrations is essentially identical to the corresponding open loop skill. Noah assimilation estimates of ground heat flux, however, can be significantly worse than open loop estimates. Provided the assimilation system is properly adapted to each land model, the benefits from the assimilation of LST retrievals are comparable for both models.

Reichle, Rolf H.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Estimating Software Reliability for Space Launch Vehicles in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

It is acutely recognized in the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) field that software plays a defining role in overall system reliability for all modern systems across a wide variety of industries. Regardless of whether the software is embedded firmware for working components or elements, part of a Human-Machine-Interface, or automated command and control logic, the success of the software to fulfill its function under nominal and off-nominal environments will be a dominant contributor to system reliability. It is also recognized that software reliability prediction and estimation is one of the more challenging and questionable aspects of any PRA or system analyses due to the nature of software and its integration with physics based systems. Irrespective of this dichotomy, any incorporation of software reliability methods requires that the contributions are accountable, quantitative, and tractable. This paper provides a brief overview of software reliability methods, establishes some minimum requirements that the methods should incorporate for completeness, and provides a logic structure for applying software reliability. Model resolution will be discussed that supports current testing plans and trade studies. We will provide initial recommendations for use in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) PRA and present a future dynamic option for software and PRA. Space Launch Vehicle software is recognized to be reliable in static conditions, yet relatively vulnerable to a set of failure modes in changing environments/flight phases. Two quantitative methods were chosen to incorporate software reliability into a Space Launch Vehicle PRA accounting for phase adjustments. One method predicts latent software failure using statistical methods, and the second provides estimates of coding errors and software operating system failures based on test and historical data. Software uncertainty will also be discussed. It is determined that recommendations for PRA software reliability should be modeled at the software module level where multiple software components compose a module and combinations of the software architecture can lead to a functional failure.

Steven D. Novack↗
NASA NTRS2024

Maximizing the Volume of Collocated Data from Two Coordinated Suborbital Platforms

Suborbital (e.g., airborne) campaigns that carry advanced remote sensing and in situ payloads provide detailed observations of atmospheric processes, but can be challenging to use when it is necessary to geographically collocate data from multiple platforms that make repeated observations of a given geographic location at different altitudes. This study reports on a data collocation algorithm that maximizes the volume of collocated data from two coordinated suborbital platforms and demonstrates its value using data from the NASA Aerosol Cloud Meteorology Interactions Over the western Atlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) suborbital mission. A robust data collocation algorithm is critical for the success of the ACTIVATE mission goal to develop new and improved remote sensing algorithms, and quantify their performance. We demonstrate the value of these collocated data to quantify the performance of a recently developed vertically resolved lidar + polarimeter–derived aerosol particle number concentration (Na ) product, resulting in a range-normalized mean absolute deviation (NMAD) of 9% compared to in situ measurements. We also show that this collocation algorithm increases the volume of collocated ACTIVATE data by 21% compared to using only nearest-neighbor finding algorithms alone. Additional to the benefits demonstrated within this study, the data files and routines produced by this algorithm have solved both the critical collocation and the collocation application steps for researchers who require collocated data for their own studies. This freely available and open-source collocation algorithm can be applied to future suborbital campaigns that, like ACTIVATE, use multiple platforms to conduct coordinated observations, e.g., a remote sensing aircraft together with in situ data collected from suborbital platforms.

Atmosphere↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Enigmatic Longevity of Granular Materials on Mars: The Case for Geologically Episodic Dune Formation

Martian sand dunes are concentrated in vast sand seas in the circumpolar belt of the planet's northern hemisphere, but they are also pervasive over the whole planet. Their occurrence is to be expected on a super-arid planetary surface subjected to boundary layer drag from a continually active atmosphere. Whilst their occurrence is to be expected, their survival is enigmatic. But the enigma only arises if the martian system is considered similar to Earth's --where sand is moved highly frequently, more or less on a seasonal basis. Experimentally it is readily demonstrated that active sand will soon wear down to small grains and eventually diminish to below the critical sand size required to sustain dune formation. According to conventional wisdom, sand moves at higher speeds on Mars than on Earth, and if it were to move as frequently as it does on Earth, then the dune-forming sand population should have long since disappeared, given the great longevity of the martian aeolian system (Sagan coined the term "kamikaze" grains to express this disappearance). No supply of sand could keep pace with this depletion, especially in light of the fact that Mars does not have very active weathering, nor significant crustal differentiation. On Earth, plate tectonics, magmatic activity, and general crustal differentiation over geological time have produced great concentrations of quartz crystals in the continental crustal masses. Not only are these quartz grains chemically and mechanically resilient, they are about the right size for being transported by either wind or water. Add to this, the geologically recent contribution of glacial grinding, and it is easy to see why there are dune field on Earth. So what are the martian dunes composed of, and how does the material survive the eons of attrition? In addition to experimental demonstrations of sand comminution in laboratory aeolian simulations, the problem can be approached from first principles. Sagan showed that by simple considerations of material strength versus mechanical work applied to the material, comminution to sub-sand size would be inevitable. Another semi-analytical approach might be taken by considering that the archetypal aeolian sand surface texture is an irregularly pitted ("frosted") surface composed of chipping hollows approximately 10 microns in diameter, 5 microns deep. Their volume = about 250 cubic microns, or about 1/25000 of the volume of a 100 micron diameter dune grain. Because a saltating grain always strikes another grain, then two surfaces are impacted. Thus each grain undergoes two impacts for every one saltation leap, when the impact statistics are considered for a closed dune system (it can be calculated that a grain can never undergo <1 impact, and never >2 per saltation leap). Hence, if we conservatively assume that there is damage to a grain each time it bounces, but with the minimum damage of only 2 microscopic craters per impact, then approximately 12,500 impacts are required to completely eliminate the grain. Of course, it would require only a fraction of this amount to reduce the grain to below sand size. A grain will make only several tens of saltation leaps on the stoss side of a dune before becoming buried on the lee slope. The dune then has to move its full length before the grain is exhumed again for abrasion. Even with this hiatus in transport, it is easy to see that terrestrial dunes need resupplying with sand in order to survive. In recent theoretical work it has been shown that martian aeolian transport may be initiated with high-speed grains, but this converts to a lower energy dynamic transport equilibrium in which a reptation population dominates grain transport (on Earth, at least half of the flux is by reptation and creep). On Mars, therefore, average grain speeds may be lower than those on Earth, or at least comparable. This would permit greater longevity for martian sands, but it would not go far enough to solve the survival problem. It may, however, explain why martian dunes are about the same size as terrestrial dunes. If martian saltation leaps were significantly longer than on Earth (as usually assumed), then a dune's lee slope would have to be correspondingly longer in order to trap the sand; this would scale up the whole dune structure. But with shorter trajectories in a reptation population, larger dunes would be unnecessary. Additional information is contained in the original.

Marshall, J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spacesuit Sizing by Multivariate Simulation: Case Study for Liquid Cooling and Ventilation Garment

A technique was developed to assess the fit of spacesuit garment liquid cooling and ventilation garment (LCVG). A fit scoring scheme was built from the spacesuit sizing requirements and guidelines, and the accommodated proportion of the wearer population was estimated from statistically synthesized pseudo population data. The method evaluated different scenarios of LCVG sizing systems including 1) baseline 7-size system, 2) 7-sizes with target body dimensions iteratively adjusted for maximum fit, and 3) 9-sizes with iterative adjustments. Overall, the baseline sizing system showed 81% accommodation rate, while the hypothetical new systems in-tegrating iterative adjustments for 7- and 9-sizes predictively indicated that accommodation could improve up to 92 and 97%. The proposed method provided a structured metric to quantify fit performance of a garment sizing system, which can be further applied to different spacesuit component, PPE and garment designs.

Han Kim↗
NASA NTRS1977

Development of a transfer function method for dynamic stability measurement

Flutter testing method based on transfer function measurements is developed. The error statistics of several dynamic stability measurement methods are reviewed. It is shown that the transfer function measurement controls the error level by averaging the data and correlating the input and output. The method also gives a direct estimate of the error in the response measurement. An algorithm is developed for obtaining the natural frequency and damping ratio of low damped modes of the system, using integrals of the transfer function in the vicinity of a resonant peak. Guidelines are given for selecting the parameters in the transfer function measurement. Finally, the dynamic stability measurement technique is applied to data from a wind tunnel test of a proprotor and wing model.

Johnson, W.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Longitudinal flying qualities criteria for single-pilot instrument flight operations

Modern estimation and control theory, flight testing, and statistical analysis were used to deduce flying qualities criteria for General Aviation Single Pilot Instrument Flight Rule (SPIFR) operations. The principal concern is that unsatisfactory aircraft dynamic response combined with high navigation/communication workload can produce problems of safety and efficiency. To alleviate these problems. The relative importance of these factors must be determined. This objective was achieved by flying SPIFR tasks with different aircraft dynamic configurations and assessing the effects of such variations under these conditions. The experimental results yielded quantitative indicators of pilot's performance and workload, and for each of them, multivariate regression was applied to evaluate several candidate flying qualities criteria.

Stengel, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Longitudinal flying qualitites criteria for single-pilot instrument flight operations

Modern estimation and control theory, flight testing, and statistical analysis were used to deduce flying qualities criteria for General Aviation Single Pilot Instrument Flight Rule (SPIFR) operations. The principal concern is that unsatisfactory aircraft dynamic response combined with high navigation/communication workload can produce problems of safety and efficiency. To alleviate these problems, the relative importance of these factors must be determined. This objective was achieved by flying SPIFR tasks with different aircraft dynamic configurations and assessing the effects of such variations under these conditions. The experimental results yielded quantitative indicators of pilot's performance and workload, and for each of them, multivariate regression was applied to evaluate several candidate flying qualities criteria.

Bar-Gill, A.↗