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DOE OSTI2020

Design and performance of an in-vacuum, magnetic field mapping system for the Muon g-2 experiment

The Muon g - 2 experiment at Fermilab (E989) aims to measure the anomalous magnetic moment, a μ , of the muon with a precision of 140 parts-per-billion. This requires a precise measurement of both the anomalous spin precession frequency, ω α , of muons stored in a magnetic field of 1.45 T, and a precise measurement of that magnetic field in terms of the shielded proton Larmor frequency, ω' ρ . The measurement of ω' ρ with a total systematic uncertainty of 70 parts-perbillion involves a combination of various nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) probes. There are 378 probes mounted in fixed locations that constantly monitor field drifts. A water-based, cylindrical calibration probe provides the calibration in terms of the shielded proton Larmor frequency. A crucial element for the multi-step measurement of ω' ρ is the regular mapping of the magnetic field over the muon storage region. The former experiment at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) employed an in-vacuum field mapping system equipped with 17 NMR probes, which was developed by the University of Heidelberg. We have refurbished and upgraded this system with new probes and electronics. The upgrades include the addition of 16-bit, 1 MSPS digitization of the NMR signals, which replaced the hardware-implemented zero-crossing counting of the system at Brookhaven. The digitized signals offer new capabilities in the NMR frequency analysis and its related systematic uncertainties. To sustain the higher data rates, a new communication scheme with time-division multiplexing was implemented to separate the important NMR reference clock from the data communication in order to reach the specifications for the accuracy and stability of the reference clock. A new barcode reader provides more precise azimuthal position determination during the measurement and calibration. While the mechanical systems that move the field mapper inside the storage ring have been mostly refurbished from BNL, the motion control system was completely replaced with a custom-built electronics centered around a commercial Galil motion controller. Both the field mapping NMR system and its motion control were successfully commissioned at Fermilab and have been in reliable operation during the first three data taking periods of the experiment at Fermilab. Finally, this article will provide the details of the upgrades of the field mapper and its performance.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Design and performance of an in-vacuum, magnetic field mapping system for the Muon g-2 experiment

The E989 Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab aims to measure the anomalous magnetic moment, a$_\mu$, of the muon with a precision of 140 parts-per-billion. This requires a precise measurement of both the anomalous spin precession frequency, $\omega_a$, and the average magnetic field in terms of the equivalent, free proton Larmor frequency, $\omega_p$. The measurement of $\omega_p$ with a total systematic uncertainty of 70 parts-per-billion involves a combination of various NMR probes. There are 378 probes in fixed locations constantly monitoring field drifts. A water-based probe provides the calibration in terms of $\omega_p$. A crucial element for the multi-step measurement of $\omega_p$ is the regular mapping of the magnetic field over the muon storage region. The former E821 experiment at Brookhaven employed an in-vacuum field mapping system equipped with 17 NMR probes, which was developed by the University of Heidelberg. We have refurbished and upgraded this system with new probes and electronics. The upgrades include a new communication scheme incorporating time-division multiplexing to separate the important NMR reference clock from the data communication. The addition digitization of the NMR signals replaced the hardware-implemented zero-crossing counting of the E821 system. The digitized signals offer new capabilities in the NMR frequency analysis and its related systematic uncertainties. While the mechanical systems that move the field mapper around the ring have been mostly refurbished, the motion control system was completely replaced with a custom-built electronics centered around a commercial Galil motion controller. Both the field mapping NMR system and its motion control were successfully commissioned at Fermilab and have been in reliable operation during the first data taking periods. This article provides details of the upgrades of the field mapper and its performance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Fuel Fabrication Specification Impact Analysis for NBSR LEU Conversion

As part of a national initiative to enhance nuclear security and reduce proliferation risks, significant efforts have been undertaken by the National Nuclear Security Administration Material Management and Minimization Office of Reactor Conversion Program to convert U.S. high performance research reactors (USHPRRs) from the use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU), including the National Bureau of Standards Reactor (NBSR). The current plan is to procure LEU fuel assemblies from commercial fabricators according to fuel specifications tailored for each USHPRR. The analysis conducted at Brookhaven National Laboratory was part of an effort to identify the sources of uncertainty in the fuel specifications that may impact the performance of the NBSR core after its conversion and, in particular, to assess the range of acceptable tolerance limits from the perspective of core safety and reactor performance. Using the stochastic neutronics code MCNP 6.2, the variations in important NBSR neutronics characteristics were analyzed as a function of the specification parameters independently and in combination. The important NBSR specification parameters analyzed were the fuel isotopic composition, the amount of impurity content in cladding, the fuel plate thickness, and the fuel element 235U mass loading. The range of variation of each specification parameter was based on the technical specification limit or available as-fabricated assay data and uncertainties. The NBSR neutronics characteristics selected for analysis were the reactor reactivity characteristics at equilibrium and the equilibrium fuel cycle length. Results show that with variations in the fabrication parameters of the as-fabricated U-10Mo fuel within the specification limitations, the excess reactivity of the NBSR LEU core remains well below the 15% Δk/k technical specification limit, and the shutdown margin is always significantly greater than the required 0.68% Δk/k. This ensures that the NBSR can be operated safely and reliably shut down for all analyzed cases within the specified fabrication limits after the LEU conversion. In the prototypic case, the fuel cycle length was 1.5 days longer than the targeted 38.5 days. In a credible worst-case scenario, where all low-reactivity parameters were combined, the fuel cycle length was reduced to 35.5 days, which is still considered manageable for reactor operations. Variations in cycle length are primarily driven by changes in 235U loading, with other parameters having secondary effects.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1992

Design for cyclic loading endurance of composites

The present paper describes the application of the computer code IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures) to air craft wing type structures. The code performs a complete probabilistic structural analysis for composites taking into account the uncertainties in geometry, boundary conditions, material properties, laminate lay-ups and loads. Results of the analysis are presented in terms of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) and probability density function (PDF) of life of a wing type composite structure under different hygrothermal environments subjected to random pressure. The sensitivity of fatigue life to a number of critical structural/material variables is also computed from the analysis.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Design for cyclic loading endurance of composites

The application of the computer code IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures) to aircraft wing type structures is described. The code performs a complete probabilistic analysis for composites taking into account the uncertainties in geometry, boundary conditions, material properties, laminate lay-ups, and loads. Results of the analysis are presented in terms of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) and probability density function (PDF) of the fatigue life of a wing type composite structure under different hygrothermal environments subjected to the random pressure. The sensitivity of the fatigue life to a number of critical structural/material variables is also computed from the analysis.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Retrieval of Ice Cloud Properties Using an Optimal Estimation Algorithm and MODIS Infrared Observations: 2. Retrieval Evaluation

An infrared-based optimal estimation (OE-IR) algorithm for retrieving ice cloud properties is evaluated. Specifically, the implementation of the algorithm with MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations is assessed in comparison with the operational retrieval products from MODIS on the Aqua satellite (MYD06), Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), and the Imaging Infrared Radiometer (IIR); the latter two instruments fly on the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite in the Afternoon Constellation (A-Train) with Aqua. The results show that OE-IR cloud optical thickness (tau) and effective radius (r(sub eff)) retrievals perform best for ice clouds having 0.5 < tau< 7 and r(sub eff) < 50microns. For global ice clouds, the averaged retrieval uncertainties of tau and r(sub eff) are 19% and 33%, respectively. For optically thick ice clouds with tau larger than 10, however, the tau and r(sub eff) retrieval uncertainties can exceed 30% and 50%, respectively. For ice cloud top height (h), the averaged global uncertainty is 0.48km. Relatively large h uncertainty (e.g., > 1km) occurs for tau < 0.5. Analysis of 1month of the OE-IR retrievals shows large tau and r(sub eff) uncertainties in storm track regions and the southern oceans where convective clouds are frequently observed, as well as in high-latitude regions where temperature differences between the surface and cloud top are more ambiguous. Generally, comparisons between the OE-IR and the operational products show consistent tau and h retrievals. However, obvious differences between the OE-IR and the MODIS Collection 6 r(sub eff) are found.

cloud optics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Direct sensitivity analysis on the parameterization of crystal plasticity models

Various methods for calibrating crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) models lead to non-unique input parameter values, which subsequently introduce uncertainty in the predicted mechanical response. Sensitivity analysis (SA) conducted on crystal plasticity models is used to identify how variability in these parameters contribute to output uncertainty. Traditional SA on CPFE parameters uses simplified surrogate models to save computational time. However, the accuracy of the surrogate models depends on the quantity of training data used, and any modeling error can propagate into the SA results, potentially affecting their reliability. In this work, the elementary effects test (EET) method, a global SA technique using direct CPFE simulations was employed, and the results obtained were compared with the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method. ExaConstit, an open-source GPU-enabled CPFE code, was used to perform the simulations and direct SA. The EET method was accurately able to capture the non-linear effects of all the input parameters on the output and is a valuable approach for reliably attributing parameter sensitivities in CPFE models. Based on the results, efficient strategies to perform future parameter calibration and SA are discussed. Additionally, the SA trends observed in different single crystal orientations closely mirrored the activity of the slip systems.

Elementary Effects Test↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of Rayleigh Scattering in Liquid Argon at Vacuum Ultraviolet Wavelengths

Liquid argon based experiments are limited in scintillation light analysis capabilities due to inconsistent measured values of fundamental constants essential for reconstructing scintillation events. This experiment measures the Rayleigh scattering length of vacuum ultraviolet light propagating in liquid argon to support liquid argon experiments by expanding the scope of scintillation signal analysis. Preliminary results are presented for the Rayleigh scattering length in arange of vacuum ultraviolet wavelengths, including the liquid argon scintillation peak wavelength. Currently, further data collection and analysis is required to reduce measurement uncertainty as well as quantify and correct for other effects such as the photon detector temperature dependence. Results will contribute to the development of new photon detector system analysis methods for liquid argon experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 for predicting steady-state single-phase natural circulation

The validation of system analysis codes for nuclear reactor systems is required for the development and application of these computational tools. Designed as a comprehensive system analysis code for advanced nuclear reactors, SAS4A/SASSYS-1 requires validation of its physics model for capturing single-phase natural circulation behavior. To support the validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1, high-precision experiments are performed capturing steady-state single-phase natural circulation on a scaled facility with comprehensive instrumentation. In this work, dedicated tests are performed quantifying the critical modeling parameters, and a single-phase natural circulation benchmark dataset is obtained with well-documented uncertainty and comprehensive facility description. The validation is then performed against the dataset examining the capability of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 in simulating steady-state single-phase natural circulation. The experimental facility is modeled in the candidate code. Solution verification is performed using Richardson-extrapolation-based estimators which quantify and restrict numerical errors from discretization. Input uncertainty provided by the benchmark dataset is forward propagated through the candidate code, quantifying the output uncertainty in a Monte Carlo approach. The composition of the output uncertainty is also quantified through a variance-based sensitivity analysis. With the uncertainty quantified for each individual condition, a detailed comparison between the simulation results and experimental data is performed covering the whole dataset. The results show consistent agreement for all primary parameters. The current validation activity provides a valuable benchmark dataset for the validation of system analysis codes in capturing single-phase natural circulation and demonstrates satisfactory prediction capability of SAS4A/SASSYS1 for steady-state single-phase natural circulation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification for inverse problems with application to ptychographic reconstruction

Inverse problems in imaging are commonly solved by optimization or learned surrogates that return a single reconstruction, while uncertainty information is often unavailable. In many experimental settings, however, uncertainty is required to assess reliability, guide downstream analysis, and prioritize additional measurements. In this note, we present a compact uncertainty-quantification framework based on local objective curvature, and then specialize it to ptychographic reconstruction. We further show how repeated reconstructions can be aggregated in a statistically principled way, including a practical implementation path for PtychoNN.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1982

The development of aerodynamic uncertainties for the Space Shuttle Orbiter

The methodology involved in developing the ability to reproduce aerodynamic results between various wind tunnel tests and to determine uncertainties due to differences between preflight aerodynamic predictions and flight results derived from analysis of past aircraft programs is presented. The uncertainties were developed for pitching moment, lateral-directional stability, rudder power, and aileron power, and were formulated to yield aerodynamic uncertainties for an orbital, manned first flight. The compressed development schedule required the aerodynamics results from wind tunnel tests be equipped with tolerances, which accounted for reasonable changes in the vehicle configuration. A worst case scenario was decided on, with the results that every prediction included the widest possible aerodynamic margins. Repeatibility was emphasized between wind tunnel model tests, and was achieved with an accuracy of 0.006 with inclusion of Reynolds effects.

Young, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Regularization and Error Characterization of GRACE Mascons

We present a new global time-variable gravity mascon solution derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Level 1B data. The new product from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) results from a novel approach that combines an iterative solution strategy with geographical binning of inter-satellite range-acceleration residuals in the construction of time-dependent regularization matrices applied in the inversion of mascon parameters. This estimation strategy is intentionally conservative as it seeks to maximize the role of the GRACE measurements on the final solution while minimizing the influence of the regularization design process. We fully reprocess the Level 1B data in the presence of the final mascon solution to generate true post-fit inter-satellite residuals, which are utilized to confirm solution convergence and to validate the mascon noise uncertainties. We also present the mathematical case that regularized mascon solutions are biased, and that this bias, or leakage, must be combined with the estimated noise variance to accurately assess total mascon uncertainties. The estimated leakage errors are determined from the monthly resolution operators. We present a simple approach to compute the total uncertainty for both individual mascon and regional analysis of the GSFC mascon product, and validate the results in comparison with independent mascon solutions and calibrated Stokes uncertainties. Lastly, we present the new solution and uncertainties with global analyses of the mass trends and annual amplitudes, and compute updated trends for the global ocean, and the respective contributions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Antarctic Ice Sheet, Gulf of Alaska, and terrestrial water storage. This analysis highlights the successful closure of the global mean sea level budget, that is, the sum of global ocean mass from the GSFC mascons and the steric component from Argo floats agrees well with the total determined from sea surface altimetry.

B. D. Loomis↗

NASA NTRS2019

Regularization and Error Characterization of GRACE Mascons

Loomis, B. D.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic modeling and prediction of out-of-plane unidirectional composite lamina properties

Computational simulation provides an efficient means to predict the behavior of customized hybrid material configurations using validated, physics-based models. One limitation to this approach is the quality and quantity of available data to characterize the many constituent input properties. Therefore, a systematic approach to identify the most influential parameters on the hybrid behavior and quantify the corresponding uncertainty in predictive capabilities is required. Here, an approach using Bayesian multimodel inference and imprecise global sensitivity analysis is presented to investigate the effects of sparse constituent data on the prediction of composite material properties. The methodology allows the identification, using quantified uncertainties, of the most influential constituent material parameters for specified homogenized properties. This sensitivity analysis further enables a dimension reduction when assessing the influence of uncertainties on material properties and can be used to inform testing programs of the constituent properties that require additional testing/data collection in order to minimize uncertainty in macro-scale composite properties. The methodology is specifically demonstrated on the prediction and sensitivity analysis of out-of-plane mechanical properties of a unidirectional lamina.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Unbalanced Nested Random Effects Estimation of Variance Components

To investigate the contributing factors of variance in the measurement of an iodine 127 (127I) sample, we implement a nested random effects analysis of variance (ANOVA). Historically, the reported uncertainty on a measurement of 127I has been obtained by methods of forward uncertainty propagation because there is typically only one replicate of a given sample for which to estimate the uncertainty. When samples are processed there are several types of quality control (QC) standards analyzed along-side the unknown samples with two to five replicates for each. Assuming the variance observed in these replicate QC standards is representative of that of the unknown samples, we use these data in a nested random effects ANOVA to estimate the total uncertainty of a measurement. We demonstrate this approach with two sets of measurements from Idaho National Laboratory and compare the results with the forward uncertainty propagation approach. Variance component estimates for the coarsest level of the nesting structure were most imprecise because replicates were most limited at these levels. We find that the results largely agree between forward propagation and ANOVA, and the greatest contributors of variance are due to instrument variation and chemical processing, with human processing being among the smallest contributors. This analysis provides reassurance that the reported uncertainties using forward propagation are reasonable and the process is well controlled. We propose a future designed experiment to increase replicates at the coarsest level of the hierarchy to improve estimates of these variance components.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2013

Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) Technology Description

After takeoff, aircraft must merge into en route (Center) airspace traffic flows which may be subject to constraints that create localized demand-capacity imbalances. When demand exceeds capacity, Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) often use tactical departure scheduling to manage the flow of departures into the constrained Center traffic flow. Tactical departure scheduling usually involves use of a Call for Release (CFR) procedure wherein the Tower must call the Center TMC to coordinate a release time prior to allowing the flight to depart. In present-day operations release times are computed by the Center Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) decision support tool based upon manual estimates of aircraft ready time verbally communicated from the Tower to the Center. The TMA-computed release is verbally communicated from the Center back to the Tower where it is relayed to the Local controller as a release window that is typically three minutes wide. The Local controller will manage the departure to meet the coordinated release time window. Manual ready time prediction and verbal release time coordination are labor intensive and prone to inaccuracy. Also, use of release time windows adds uncertainty to the tactical departure process. Analysis of more than one million flights from January 2011 indicates that a significant number of tactically scheduled aircraft missed their en route slot due to ready time prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty in ready time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into constrained en route flows and lead to lost throughput. Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) plans call for development of Tower automation systems capable of computing surface trajectory-based ready time estimates. NASA has developed the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) concept that uses this technology to improve tactical departure scheduling by automatically communicating surface trajectory-based ready time predictions to the Center scheduling tool. The PDRC concept also incorporates earlier NASA and FAA research into automation-assisted CFR coordination. The PDRC concept helps reduce uncertainty by automatically communicating coordinated release times with seconds-level precision enabling TMCs to work with target times rather than windows. NASA has developed a PDRC prototype system that integrates the Center's TMA system with a research prototype Tower decision support tool. A two-phase field evaluation was conducted at NASA's North Texas Research Station (NTX) in Dallas-Fort Worth. The field evaluation validated the PDRC concept and demonstrated reduced release time uncertainty while being used for tactical departure scheduling of more than 230 operational flights over 29 weeks of operations. This paper presents the Technology Description. Companion papers include the Final Report and a Concept of Operations.

tactical departure scheduling↗

NASA NTRS2013

Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) Concept of Operations

After takeoff, aircraft must merge into en route (Center) airspace traffic flows which may be subject to constraints that create localized demandcapacity imbalances. When demand exceeds capacity Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) often use tactical departure scheduling to manage the flow of departures into the constrained Center traffic flow. Tactical departure scheduling usually involves use of a Call for Release (CFR) procedure wherein the Tower must call the Center TMC to coordinate a release time prior to allowing the flight to depart. In present-day operations release times are computed by the Center Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) decision support tool based upon manual estimates of aircraft ready time verbally communicated from the Tower to the Center. The TMA-computed release is verbally communicated from the Center back to the Tower where it is relayed to the Local controller as a release window that is typically three minutes wide. The Local controller will manage the departure to meet the coordinated release time window. Manual ready time prediction and verbal release time coordination are labor intensive and prone to inaccuracy. Also, use of release time windows adds uncertainty to the tactical departure process. Analysis of more than one million flights from January 2011 indicates that a significant number of tactically scheduled aircraft missed their en route slot due to ready time prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty in ready time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into constrained en route flows and lead to lost throughput. Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) plans call for development of Tower automation systems capable of computing surface trajectory-based ready time estimates. NASA has developed the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) concept that uses this technology to improve tactical departure scheduling by automatically communicating surface trajectory-based ready time predictions to the Center scheduling tool. The PDRC concept also incorporates earlier NASA and FAA research into automation-assisted CFR coordination. The PDRC concept helps reduce uncertainty by automatically communicating coordinated release times with seconds-level precision enabling TMCs to work with target times rather than windows. NASA has developed a PDRC prototype system that integrates the Center's TMA system with a research prototype Tower decision support tool. A two-phase field evaluation was conducted at NASA's North Texas Research Station (NTX) in DallasFort Worth. The field evaluation validated the PDRC concept and demonstrated reduced release time uncertainty while being used for tactical departure scheduling of more than 230 operational flights over 29 weeks of operations. This paper presents the Concept of Operations. Companion papers include the Final Report and a Technology Description. ? SUBJECT:

tactical departure scheduling↗

NASA NTRS2013

Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) Final Report

After takeoff, aircraft must merge into en route (Center) airspace traffic flows that may be subject to constraints that create localized demand/capacity imbalances. When demand exceeds capacity, Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) and Frontline Managers (FLMs) often use tactical departure scheduling to manage the flow of departures into the constrained Center traffic flow. Tactical departure scheduling usually involves a Call for Release (CFR) procedure wherein the Tower must call the Center to coordinate a release time prior to allowing the flight to depart. In present-day operations release times are computed by the Center Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) decision support tool, based upon manual estimates of aircraft ready time verbally communicated from the Tower to the Center. The TMA-computed release time is verbally communicated from the Center back to the Tower where it is relayed to the Local controller as a release window that is typically three minutes wide. The Local controller will manage the departure to meet the coordinated release time window. Manual ready time prediction and verbal release time coordination are labor intensive and prone to inaccuracy. Also, use of release time windows adds uncertainty to the tactical departure process. Analysis of more than one million flights from January 2011 indicates that a significant number of tactically scheduled aircraft missed their en route slot due to ready time prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty in ready time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into constrained en route flows and lead to lost throughput. Next Generation Air Transportation System plans call for development of Tower automation systems capable of computing surface trajectory-based ready time estimates. NASA has developed the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) concept that improves tactical departure scheduling by automatically communicating surface trajectory-based ready time predictions and departure runway assignments to the Center scheduling tool. The PDRC concept also incorporates earlier NASA and FAA research into automation-assisted CFR coordination. The PDRC concept reduces uncertainty by automatically communicating coordinated release times with seconds-level precision enabling TMCs and FLMs to work with target times rather than windows. NASA has developed a PDRC prototype system that integrates the Center's TMA system with a research prototype Tower decision support tool. A two-phase field evaluation was conducted at NASA's North Texas Research Station in Dallas/Fort Worth. The field evaluation validated the PDRC concept and demonstrated reduced release time uncertainty while being used for tactical departure scheduling of more than 230 operational flights over 29 weeks of operations. This paper presents research results from the PDRC research activity. Companion papers present the Concept of Operations and a Technology Description.

tactical departure scheduling↗