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DOE OSTI2026

AI-driven Neutrino Beam Diagnostics for Next-Generation Neutrino Experiments

The accelerator-driven beam uncertainty limits oscillation measurements in long-baseline neutrino experiments. Spill-resolved beam diagnostics and real-time inference are necessary to address these neutrino flux systematics. As such, we present a machine-learning-based beam monitoring framework developed and validated using data from the T2K experiment. Our approach uses downstream, spill-by-spill muon monitor observables to predict upstream parameters such as proton beam position and width. We achieve high predictive accuracy on nominal runs, demonstrating robust baseline performance whether the model is trained on stable runs or systematically varied conditions. The framework is designed to be robust against domain shifts, allowing the neural network architectures and inference strategies developed with T2K data to be retrained and validated using LBNF simulations, with the goal of eventual deployment under real LBNF/DUNE operating conditions. This scalable approach to real-time beam inference offers a pathway toward reducing flux systematics for next-generation neutrino experiments such as DUNE.

Aney, Noah [Fermilab; U. Chicago (main)]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Uncertainties of Pressure Gain Measurements in Rotating Detonation Combustor

Experimentally measuring the pressure gain of a rotating detonation combustor through the method of equivalent available pressure is prone to many experimental uncertainties. A detailed analysis of sources of random and systematic uncertainties in the thrust and pressure gain is performed using data from a hydrogen/air-operated rotating detonation combustor. The combustor had an axial air inlet and a 50% exit constriction. The measured (negative) pressure gain values agree with the results in the literature for similar inlet-to-exit area ratios. The base drag correction on the centerbody was found to be the greatest source of uncertainty for the thrust. While thrust is the predominant source of random uncertainty in the pressure gain calculation, significant systematic errors can be committed due to the assumed exit Mach number. The impact of this assumption becomes more detrimental the closer to positive the measured pressure gain is. By experimentally evaluating the exit Mach number, the random and systematic uncertainty in pressure gain both decreased, indicating that this should be an essential step. A definitive demonstration of gain is challenging, given the assessed uncertainties, and recommendations are provided to increase the precision of the equivalent available pressure methodology.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of the Polarization Beam Response of SPT-3G Using Point Sources

Precise measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization require rigorous control of instrumental systematics. For the South Pole Telescope's third-generation camera (SPT-3G), which observes in three bands centered near 95, 150, and 220 GHz, accurate beam characterization is critical for interpreting the polarized mm-wave sky. We present direct measurements of SPT-3G's polarized beam response from observations of 100 bright extragalactic point sources. Previous SPT-3G power spectrum analyses introduced a phenomenological parameter, $β_{\rm pol}$, to describe the polarization preserved in beam sidelobes, and found evidence for significant depolarization from the requirement of inter-frequency polarization power spectrum consistency. Our direct measurements yield $β_{\rm pol}=0.89\pm0.10$ at 95 GHz, $1.08\pm0.10$ at 150 GHz, and $0.90\pm0.22$ at 220 GHz, indicating minimal sidelobe depolarization. We validate these results with systematic tests of posterior sampling versus bootstrap resampling, real-space versus Fourier-space analysis, temperature-to-polarization leakage handling, covariance determination, and source selection. Compared to values inferred from previous cosmological analyses, our results differ by an effective $1.3σ$. This apparent discrepancy is model dependent, because the point source analysis derives much of its $β_{\rm pol}$ constraining power from higher multipoles than the power spectrum analysis. These measurements therefore admit three explanations for the frequency-dependent residuals observed in the power spectrum analysis: a statistical fluctuation, the need for more sophisticated polarized beam models, or systematics other than beam depolarization.

de Haan, T. [KEK, Tsukuba]↗

DOE OSTI2022

Life-Cycle and Techno-Economic Assessment of Early-Stage Carbon Capture and Utilization Technologies—A Discussion of Current Challenges and Best Practices

The mitigation of climate change requires research, development, and deployment of new technologies that are not only economically viable but also environmentally benign. Systematic and continuous technology assessment from early technology maturity onwards allows assessment practitioners to identify economic and environmental characteristics. With this information, decision-makers can focus time and resources on the most promising technologies. A broad toolset for technology assessment exists—stretching from the well-established life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology to more loosely defined techno-economic analysis (TEA) methods and the increasingly popular principles of technology maturity assessment such as the concept of technology readiness levels (TRL). However, current technology assessment practice faces various challenges at early stages, resulting in a potential mismatch of study results and stakeholders' needs and an escalation of assessment effort. In this practice review, we outline current challenges in the interplay of LCA, TEA, and TRL and present best practices for assessing early-stage climate change mitigation technologies in the field of carbon capture and utilization (CCU). The findings help practitioners systematically identify the TRL of a technology and adapt technology assessment methodologies accordingly. We highlight the methodological challenges for practitioners when adapting the goal and scope, identifying benchmark technologies, creating a comprehensive inventory, comparing early stage to commercial stage, ensuring clarity of recommendations for decision-making under high uncertainty, and streamlining conventional LCA and TEA assessment approaches and provide actionable recommendations. Overall, this work contributes to identifying promising technologies faster and more systematically, accelerating the development of new technologies for climate change mitigation and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effect of Grain Boundary Misorientation on Spall Strength in Ta via Shock-Free Simulations with Relatively Few Atoms

A suite of 37 molecular dynamics simulations is conducted at two system sizes to systematically characterize the role of grain boundary (GB) misorientation on spall strength in pure BCC tantalum (Ta). The systems studied consist of bicrystals with a single [110] symmetric tilt grain boundary. Two loading conditions are compared: (i) homogeneous extension under uniaxial strain simulated in this study and (ii) piston/flyer impact of sample, which induces heterogeneous deformation via shockwave propagation along the length of the sample. The piston/flyer impact is taken from the literature and run on the same set of GB misorientation angles using LAMMPS. The major finding here is that both methods result in similar spall strength predictions, but the homogeneous extension method generally requires two to three orders of magnitude fewer atoms and similar reductions in computational costs. Spall strength results systematically overpredict using this method, by about 10% for the dataset three orders of magnitude smaller than piston/flyer simulations, and 5% for the dataset two orders of magnitude smaller. Lastly, the effect of system size and pre-compression magnitude on spall strength is systematically characterized.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Near-infrared Census of RR Lyrae Variables in the Messier 3 Globular Cluster and the Period–Luminosity Relations

We present new near-infrared (NIR), JHK {sub s}, time-series observations of RR Lyrae variables in the Messier 3 (NGC 5272) globular cluster using the WIRCam instrument at the 3.6 m Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope. Our observations cover a sky area of ∼21′ × 21′ around the cluster center and provide an average of 20 epochs of homogeneous JHK {sub s}-band photometry. New homogeneous photometry is used to estimate robust mean magnitudes for 175 fundamental-mode (RRab), 47 overtone-mode (RRc), and 11 mixed-mode (RRd) variables. Our sample of 233 RR Lyrae variables is the largest thus far obtained in a single cluster with time-resolved, multiband NIR photometry. NIR-to-optical amplitude ratios for RR Lyrae in Messier 3 exhibit a systematic increase moving from RRc to short-period (P < 0.6 day) and long-period (P ≳ 0.6 day) RRab variables. We derive JHK {sub s}-band period–luminosity relations for RRab, RRc, and the combined sample of variables. Absolute calibrations based on the theoretically predicted period–luminosity–metallicity relations for RR Lyrae stars yield a distance modulus, μ=15.041±0.017 (statistical)±0.036 (systematic) mag, to Messier 3. When anchored to trigonometric parallaxes for nearby RR Lyrae stars from the Hubble Space Telescope and the Gaia mission, our distance estimates are consistent with those resulting from the theoretical calibrations, albeit with relatively larger systematic uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Cross-matching of High Proper-motion Stars in Gaia DR2 and Photometric Metallicities for ∼1.7 million K and M Dwarfs

We present a Bayesian method to cross-match 5,827,988 high proper-motion Gaia sources (μ > 40 mas yr{sup −1}) to various photometric surveys: Two Micron All Sky Survey, AllWISE data release from the Wide-field Infrared Explorer (WISE) mission, Galaxy Evolution Explorer, Radial Velocity Experiment, Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS). To efficiently associate these objects across catalogs, we develop a technique that compares the multidimensional distribution of all sources in the vicinity of each Gaia star to a reference distribution of random field stars obtained by extracting all sources in a region on the sky displaced 2′. This offset preserves the local field stellar density and magnitude distribution, allowing us to characterize the frequency of chance alignments. The resulting catalog with Bayesian probabilities >95% has a marginally higher match rate than current internal Gaia data release 2 (DR2) matches for most catalogs. However, a significant improvement is found with Pan-STARRS, where ∼99.8% of the sample within the Pan-STARRS footprint is recovered, as compared to a low ∼20.8% in Gaia DR2. Using these results, we train a Gaussian process regressor to calibrate two photometric metallicity relationships. For dwarfs of 3500 < T{sub eff} < 5280 K, we use metallicity values of 4378 stars from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment and Hejazi et al. to calibrate the relationship, producing results with a 1σ precision of 0.12 dex and few systematic errors. We then indirectly infer the metallicity of 4018 stars with 2850 < T{sub eff} < 3500 K, which are wide companions of primaries whose metallicities are estimated with our first regressor, to produce a relationship with a 1σ precision of 0.21 dex and significant systematic errors. Additional work is needed to better remove unresolved binaries from this second sample to reduce these systematic errors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of the Cosmic Microwave Background Polarization Lensing Power Spectrum from Two Years of POLARBEAR Data

Here, we present a measurement of the gravitational lensing deflection power spectrum reconstructed with two seasons of cosmic microwave background polarization data from the Polarbear experiment. Observations were taken at 150 GHz from 2012 to 2014 and surveyed three patches of sky totaling 30 square degrees. We test the consistency of the lensing spectrum with a cold dark matter cosmology and reject the no-lensing hypothesis at a confidence of 10.9σ, including statistical and systematic uncertainties. We observe a value of A L = 1.33 ± 0.32 (statistical) ±0.02 (systematic) ±0.07 (foreground) using all polarization lensing estimators, which corresponds to a 24% accurate measurement of the lensing amplitude. Compared to the analysis of the first-year data, we have improved the breadth of both the suite of null tests and the error terms included in the estimation of systematic contamination.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Understanding Type Ia Supernova Distance Biases by Simulating Spectral Variations

In the next decade, transient searches from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will increase the sample of known Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from ~10 3 to 10 5 . With this reduction of statistical uncertainties on cosmological measurements, new methods are needed to reduce systematic uncertainties. Here, characterizing the underlying spectroscopic evolution of SN Ia remains a major systematic uncertainty in current cosmological analyses, motivating a new simulation tool for the next era of SN Ia cosmology: Build Your Own Spectral Energy Distribution (byosed). byosed is used within the SNANA framework to simulate light curves by applying spectral variations to model SEDs, enabling flexible testing of possible systematic shifts in SN Ia distance measurements. We test the framework by comparing a nominal Roman SN Ia survey simulation using a baseline SED model to simulations using SEDs perturbed with byosed, and investigating the impact of ignoring specific SED features in the analysis. These features include semiempirical models of two possible, predicted relationships: between SN ejecta velocity and light-curve observables, and a redshift-dependent relationship between SN Hubble residuals and host-galaxy mass. We analyze each byosed simulation using the SALT2 and BEAMS with Bias Corrections framework, and estimate changes in the measured value of the dark-energy equation-of-state parameter, w. We find a difference of Δw = –0.023 for SN velocity and Δw = 0.021 for redshift-evolving host mass when compared to simulations without these features. By using byosed for SN Ia cosmology simulations, future analyses (e.g., the Rubin and Roman SN Ia samples) will have greater flexibility to constrain or reduce such SN Ia modeling uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Functional Data Analysis for Extracting the Intrinsic Dimensionality of Spectra: Application to Chemical Homogeneity in the Open Cluster M67

High-resolution spectroscopic surveys of the Milky Way have entered the Big Data regime and have opened avenues for solving outstanding questions in Galactic archeology. However, exploiting their full potential is limited by complex systematics, whose characterization has not received much attention in modern spectroscopic analyses. In this work, we present a novel method to disentangle the component of spectral data space intrinsic to the stars from that due to systematics. Using functional principal component analysis on a sample of 18,933 giant spectra from APOGEE, we find that the intrinsic structure above the level of observational uncertainties requires ≈10 functional principal components (FPCs). Our FPCs can reduce the dimensionality of spectra, remove systematics, and impute masked wavelengths, thereby enabling accurate studies of stellar populations. To demonstrate the applicability of our FPCs, we use them to infer stellar parameters and abundances of 28 giants in the open cluster M67. We employ Sequential Neural Likelihood, a simulation-based Bayesian inference method that learns likelihood functions using neural density estimators, to incorporate non-Gaussian effects in spectral likelihoods. By hierarchically combining the inferred abundances, we limit the spread of the following elements in M67: Fe ≲ 0.02 dex; C ≲ 0.03 dex; O, Mg, Si, Ni ≲ 0.04 dex; Ca ≲ 0.05 dex; N, Al ≲ 0.07 dex (at 68% confidence). Our constraints suggest a lack of self-pollution by core-collapse supernovae in M67, which has promising implications for the future of chemical tagging to understand the star formation history and dynamical evolution of the Milky Way.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparing the Photometric Calibration of DESI Imaging and Gaia Synthetic Photometry

Abstract The relative photometric calibration errors in the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys (LS), which are used for DESI target selection, can leave imprints on the DESI target densities and bias the resulting cosmological measurements. We characterize the LS calibration systematics by comparing the LS stellar photometry with Gaia DR3 synthetic photometry. We find the stellar photometry of LS DR9 and Gaia has an rms difference of 4.7, 3.7, 4.4 mmag in DECam grz bands, respectively, when averaged over an angular scale of 27 ′ . There are distinct spatial patterns in the photometric offset resembling the Gaia scan patterns (most notably in the synthesized g -band) which indicate systematics in the Gaia spectrophotometry, as well as honeycomb patterns due to LS calibration systematics. We also find large and smoothly varying photometric offsets at decl. < −29.°25 in LS DR9 which are fixed in DR10.

Zhou, Rongpu (ORCID:0000000153814372)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey: Modeling strategy for multiprobe cluster cosmology and validation for the Full Six-year Dataset

We introduce an updated To&Krause2021 model for joint analyses of cluster abundances and large-scale two-point correlations of weak lensing and galaxy and cluster clustering (termed CL+3x2pt analysis) and validate that this model meets the systematic accuracy requirements of analyses with the statistical precision of the final Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 6 (Y6) dataset. The validation program consists of two distinct approaches, (1) identification of modeling and parameterization choices and impact studies using simulated analyses with each possible model misspecification (2) end-to-end validation using mock catalogs from customized Cardinal simulations that incorporate realistic galaxy populations and DES-Y6-specific galaxy and cluster selection and photometric redshift modeling, which are the key observational systematics. In combination, these validation tests indicate that the model presented here meets the accuracy requirements of DES-Y6 for CL+3x2pt based on a large list of tests for known systematics. In addition, we also validate that the model is sufficient for several other data combinations: the CL+GC subset of this data vector (excluding galaxy--galaxy lensing and cosmic shear two-point statistics) and the CL+3x2pt+BAO+SN (combination of CL+3x2pt with the previously published Y6 DES baryonic acoustic oscillation and Y5 supernovae data).

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2019

Spatial and temporal variation in river corridor exchange across a 5th-order mountain stream network

Although most field and modeling studies of river corridor exchange have been conducted at scales ranging from tens to hundreds of meters, results of these studies are used to predict their ecological and hydrological influences at the scale of river networks. Further complicating prediction, exchanges are expected to vary with hydrologic forcing and the local geomorphic setting. While we desire predictive power, we lack a complete spatiotemporal relationship relating discharge to the variation in geologic setting and hydrologic forcing that is expected across a river basin. Indeed, the conceptual model of Wondzell (2011) predicts systematic variation in river corridor exchange as a function of (1) variation in baseflow over time at a fixed location, (2) variation in discharge with location in the river network, and (3) local geomorphic setting. To test this conceptual model we conducted more than 60 solute tracer studies including a synoptic campaign in the 5th-order river network of the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest (Oregon, USA) and replicate-in-time experiments in four watersheds. We interpret the data using a series of metrics describing river corridor exchange and solute transport, testing for consistent direction and magnitude of relationships relating these metrics to discharge and local geomorphic setting. We confirmed systematic decrease in river corridor exchange space through the river networks, from headwaters to the larger main stem. However, we did not find systematic variation with changes in discharge through time or with local geomorphic setting. While interpretation of our results is complicated by problems with the analytical methods, the results are sufficiently robust for us to conclude that space-for-time and time-for-space substitutions are not appropriate in our study system. Finally, we suggest two strategies that will improve the interpretability of tracer test results and help the hyporheic community develop robust datasets that will enable comparisons across multiple sites and/or discharge conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1971

Nonsystematic convolutional codes for sequential decoding in space applications.

Description of a class of rate 1/2 nonsystematic convolutional codes with the following desirable properties: (1) an undetected decoding error probability verified by simulation to be much smaller than for the best systematic codes of the same constraint length; (2) computation behavior with sequential decoding verified by simulation to be virtually identical to that of the best systematic codes; (3) a ?quick-look-in' feature that permits recovery of the information sequence from the hard-decisioned received data without decoding simply by modulo-two addition of the received sequences; and (4) suitability for encoding by simple circuitry requiring less hardware than encoders for the best systematic codes of the same constraint length. Theoretical analyses are given. These codes have been adopted for use in several forthcoming space missions.

Massey, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1972

North-South asymmetry of the neutral exosphere.

A systematic asymmetry in the neutral exosphere between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres has been identified for the first time after correcting for all other known systematic variations. This phenomenon was clearly detected from recent measurements of helium drag effects near 1000 km on the low mass-to-area ratio Explorer 19 satellite. From a reanalysis of all four NASA Langley Air Density Explorer satellites (Explorers 9, 19, 24, and 39), this systematic asymmetry was traced over an entire solar activity cycle. It was found that helium concentrations in local summer at high latitudes are generally more than 50% lower in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition, the increase in helium concentrations from summer to winter was found to be approximately 80% greater in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere.

Keating, G. M.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Corrections to star catalogues from satellite observations.

Theoretical investigation of the possibility of obtaining systematic corrections to star catalogs from observations of artificial satellites. A model is established to represent the system of equations formed when such corrections are determined simultaneously with corrections to the geocentric position of the observer. An analytical expression for the covariance matrix is set up for the two-dimensional (planar) case. The resulting correlations and weights are discussed. Since this method presents an independent way of obtaining the systematic errors in star catalogs, apart from the orientation to the equatorial system, it is related to the measurement of all quantities which depend on star positions. This institutes a completely new principle of obtaining systematic corrections to star catalogs. It is based not on rotation, but on comparing the angle subtended at the satellite by two stars to the angle subtended at the satellite by two points on the surface of the earth.

Williams, C. A.↗

NASA NTRS1980

A Fundamental System based on observations of minor planets

Astronomers adopt a single system of star positions and motions for reduction of other observations. Relative observations of faint minor planets may make a significant contribution to the evaluation of systematic errors in this Fundamental System, and provide means of deriving a position system in ecliptic coordinates. New techniques, such as observations with the Space Telescope, must be evaluated for possible incorporation into a revision of the Fundamental System. A historical summary of the application of minor planet observations to the formation of astronomical coordinate systems is given. Then a project to investigate the systematic accuracy of the Fundamental System is outlined. Of the four observation types considered, 'crossing point' observations provide a unique stabilizing influence on any coordinate system incorporating them. Finally, some sources of systematic error and some methods of their treatment are discussed.

Hemenway, P.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A comparison of satellite Doppler and gravimetric geoid undulations considering terrain-corrected gravity data

Geoid undulations derived from Doppler satellite positioning are compared with corresponding values derived from terrestrial and satellite information using three different procedures. Doppler undulations are compared with uncorrected gravimetric undulations, and systematic differences of 1.6 m and 0.4 m are found for western and eastern U.S. stations, respectively. The systematic difference of 1.6 m was reduced to 0.1 m when terrain-related corrections were applied. Undulations computed from a spherical harmonic expansion to degree 180 yielded standard deviations only slightly poorer than the combined data. A more systematic difference in the western than in the eastern stations remained.

Rapp, R. H.↗