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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

Generation and representation of synthetic smart meter data

Advanced energy algorithms running at big-data scale will be necessary to identify, realize, and verify energy savings to meet government and utility goals of building energy efficiency. Any algorithm must be well characterized and validated before it is trusted to run at these scales. Smart meter data from real buildings will ultimately be required for the development, testing, and validation of these energy algorithms and processes. However, for initial development and testing, smart meter data are difficult to work with due to privacy restrictions, noise from unknown sources, data accessibility, and other concerns which can complicate algorithm development and validation. This paper describes a new methodology to generate synthetic smart meter data of electricity use in buildings using detailed building energy modeling, which aims to capture the variability and stochastics of real energy use in buildings. The methodology can create datasets tailored to represent specific scenarios with known truth and controllable amounts of synthetic noise. Knowledge of ground truth also allows the development and validation of enhanced processes which leverage building metadata, such as building type or size (floor area), in addition to smart meter data. The methodology described in this paper includes the key influencing factors of real-world building energy use including weather data, occupant-driven loads, building operation and maintenance practices, and special events. Data formats to support workflows leveraging both synthetic meter data and associated metadata are proposed and discussed. Finally, example use cases of the synthetic meter data are described to illustrate potential applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Understanding Variability in Mechanical Behavior of Adhesively Bonded Sandwich Joints due to Stochastic Material Damage

A mesoscale progressive damage analysis was applied to the analysis of recently tested adhesively bonded sandwich panels, in which ten nominally identical tension loaded panels failed in three different failure modes, with peakloads ranging from 13.0 –16.1 kips. A parametric finite element model for progressive damage analysis of an adhesively bonded joint (ABJ) considering matrix and fiber damage, and delamination cracks in unidirectional and fabric composite sections of the joint, as well as core crushing, and adhesive fracture was developed. The model was developed using Abaqus/Explicit and utilized continuum damage mechanics material models for intralaminar damage in the facesheet and doubler plies, cohesive elements for delamination and adhesive debonding, and discretized cells considering plasticity to model crushing of the aluminum honeycomb core. Analysis predictions obtained with a pristine model agreed well with the average experimental peak load, strain in the joint, and post-test damage states. Then, various methods to incorporate stochastic material variability into ABJ model were evaluated. These methods included simulation of pre-existing matrix damage, pre-existing adhesive porosity, and uniform modification of adhesive properties. These material and manufacturing defects changed the damage mode predictions in some cases. The analysis of stochastic strength due to the considered defects revealed unintuitive damage mode interaction in the ABJ, explaining some structure-property relationships observed experimentally.

Richard Larson↗

NASA NTRS1985

Energy supply processes for magnetospheric substorms and solar flares - Tippy bucket model or pitcher model?

In the past, both magnetospheric substorms and solar flares have almost exclusively been discussed in terms of explosive magnetic reconnection. Such a model may conceptually be illustrated by the so-called 'tippy-bucket model', which causes sudden unloading processes, namely a sudden (catastrophic, stochastic, and unpredictable) conversion of stored magnetic energy. However, recent observations indicate that magnetospheric substorms can be understood as a result of a directly driven process which can conceptually be illustrated by the 'pitcher model' in which the output rate varies in harmony with the input rate. It is also possible that solar flare phenomena are directly driven by a photospheric dynamo. Thus, explosive magnetic reconnection may simply be an unworkable hypothesis and may not be a puzzle to be solved as the primary energy supply process for magnetospheric substorms and solar flares.

Akasofu, S.-I.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Classifying and analyzing small-angle scattering data using weighted k nearest neighbors machine learning techniques

A consistent challenge for both new and expert practitioners of small-angle scattering (SAS) lies in determining how to analyze the data, given the limited information content of said data and the large number of models that can be employed. Machine learning (ML) methods are powerful tools for classifying data that have found diverse applications in many fields of science. Here, ML methods are applied to the problem of classifying SAS data for the most appropriate model to use for data analysis. The approach employed is built around the method of weighted k nearest neighbors (wKNN), and utilizes a subset of the models implemented in the SasView package (https://www.sasview.org/) for generating a well defined set of training and testing data. The prediction rate of the wKNN method implemented here using a subset of SasView models is reasonably good for many of the models, but has difficulty with others, notably those based on spherical structures. A novel expansion of the wKNN method was also developed, which uses Gaussian processes to produce local surrogate models for the classification, and this significantly improves the classification accuracy. Further, by integrating a stochastic gradient descent method during post-processing, it is possible to leverage the local surrogate model both to classify the SAS data with high accuracy and to predict the structural parameters that best describe the data. The linking of data classification and model fitting has the potential to facilitate the translation of measured data into results for both novice and expert practitioners of SAS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fluid Dynamics of Axial Turbomachinery: Blade- and Stage-Level Simulations and Models

The current generation of axial turbomachines is the culmination of decades of experience, and detailed understanding of the underlying flow physics has been a key factor for achieving high efficiency and reliability. Driven by advances in numerical methods and relentless growth in computing power, computational fluid dynamics has increasingly provided insights into the rich fluid dynamics involved and how it relates to loss generation. This article presents some of the complex flow phenomena occurring in bladed components of gas turbines and illustrates how simulations have contributed to their understanding and the challenges they pose for modeling. The interaction of key aerodynamic features with deterministic unsteadiness, caused by multiple blade rows, and stochastic unsteadiness, i.e., turbulence, is discussed. High-fidelity simulations of increasingly realistic configurations and models improved with help of machine learning promise to further grow turbomachinery performance and reliability and, thus, help fluid mechanics research have a greater industrial impact.

Mechanics↗

NASA NTRS1998

Empirical correction for earth sensor horizon radiance variation

A major limitation on the use of infrared horizon sensors for attitude determination is the variability of the height of the infrared Earth horizon. This variation includes a climatological component and a stochastic component of approximately equal importance. The climatological component shows regular variation with season and latitude. Models based on historical measurements have been used to compensate for these systematic changes. The stochastic component is analogous to tropospheric weather. It can cause extreme, localized changes that for a period of days, overwhelm the climatological variation. An algorithm has been developed to compensate partially for the climatological variation of horizon height and at least to mitigate the stochastic variation. This method uses attitude and horizon sensor data from spacecraft to update a horizon height history as a function of latitude. For spacecraft that depend on horizon sensors for their attitudes (such as the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer-Earth Probe-TOMS-EP) a batch least squares attitude determination system is used. It is assumed that minimizing the average sensor residual throughout a full orbit of data results in attitudes that are nearly independent of local horizon height variations. The method depends on the additional assumption that the mean horizon height over all latitudes is approximately independent of season. Using these assumptions, the method yields the latitude dependent portion of local horizon height variations. This paper describes the algorithm used to generate an empirical horizon height. Ideally, an international horizon height database could be established that would rapidly merge data from various spacecraft to provide timely corrections that could be used by all.

Hashmall, Joseph A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Turbulence modulation effect on evaporating spray characterization

The effects of turbulence modulation on the evaporating spray characteristics of a liquid fuel jet are numerically investigated. Two modulation models are implemented into the k-epsilon two-equation model. The gas phase is solved by a pressure-based method on a Eulerian frame and droplets are solved by a stochastic discrete particle technique based on Lagrangian formulation. The k-epsilon models are used to characterize the time and length scales of the gas phase turbulence for droplet dispersions and droplet/turbulence interactions. The modulation models are found to have significant effects on gas phase dynamics, and are less important for the droplet dynamics. Numerical predictions are compared with the experimental data of Drallemier and Peters (1990).

Shang, H. M.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distribution Development for the RDX Regional Model at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 20385

Representing uncertainty in model inputs often means finding a balance between uncertainty and physical reality. Developing wide distributions may seem conservative in principle, but this approach may lead to unrealistic model results. Characterizing the current state of knowledge of stochastic inputs presents many challenges, especially if the data available are limited or have limited relevance to the site. Relationships among these inputs may also be important to represent but are typically complex or difficult to define. Often special adjustments must be made to account for reduced credibility in particular data. If parameters are strongly related to one another, a correlation structure may be developed for input to the model. Other techniques such as regression models may be used to incorporate relationships between the information available and the desired parameters. The process of developing distributions must consider details of the model in terms of what the distribution is meant to represent. This paper uses the example of a probabilistic fate and transport model for hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) in the regional aquifer at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). For many parameters, a single draw is applied to all space and time over which the model is run, for a single iteration. This simplification is often made for many reasons, and can often be beneficial, but also adds additional complexity in the distribution development process. Defining the distributional goals as they relate to the modeling process is an important step, which should take place prior to evaluation of the data. Usually, the distributions developed are meant to characterize the average value of the parameter over the spatial and temporal domain of the model. Distribution development requires consideration of many sources of information on the parameter where available, ideally from multiple references. Examples of different sources include data from different references but also from different conditions, measurement methods, or experimental types. Depending on these conditions and the reliability or relevance of particular references, different sources of data may each contribute valuable information but have varying relevance to the site. In these cases, weighting data unequally is a useful way to incorporate this information. As an example, aqueous dispersivity data are available for a variety of rock types. Only a few values are available for the desired rock type, and this is not enough to develop a distribution. Therefore, dispersivity values from other rock types are included in distribution development but are down-weighted such that the best data have the most influence on the distribution developed. In another case, K{sub d} distributions in the model are meant to represent a known composition of multiple soil types. Data from these materials are weighted accordingly to develop a distribution for the weighted average K{sub d} across soil types. Other cases include varying reliability of different sources, and weighting data according to the confidence in these sources. In some cases, input parameters are correlated with one another. An example is advective porosity, which is positively correlated with total porosity and must be less than total porosity. Paired data with both parameters must exist to discern the relationship between the two parameters and if it is necessary to build a correlation structure into the model. In general, correlated parameters may be represented in the model by a multivariate distribution, or perhaps more desirably, capturing the correlation within the developed distributions which may be treated as independent from one another. In the example of porosity, this can be done by transforming advective porosity into a proportion of total porosity which may be drawn independently from the distribution of total porosity. This paper explores how complex data and correlations can be incorporated to meet the distributional goals of the model, using the RDX regional model as a detailed example. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Toroidal modeling of runaway electron loss due to 3D fields in ITER

Mitigation of runaway electrons (REs) by three-dimensional (3D) magnetic field perturbations is numerically investigated for the ITER 15 MA baseline D–T scenario, utilizing the MARS-F code (Liu et al Phys. Plasmas 7 3681) with a drift orbit test particle tracing module. Considered are two types of 3D fields: the n = 3 (n is the toroidal mode number) resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) utilized for the purpose of controlling the edge localized modes in ITER, and perturbations generated by the n = 1 magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities in a post-disruption plasma. The RMP field, applied to a pre-disruption plasma, is found to be moderately effective in mitigating the RE seeds in ITER when vacuum field model is assumed. Up to ~40% loss fraction is possible at 90 kA-turn coil current. The mitigation efficiency is however substantially reduced, down to less than 5%, when the plasma response is taken into account. This is due to strong screening of the resonant magnetic field components by the plasma response resulting in much less field line stochasticity. On the other hand, the MARS-F modeling, based on the DINA-simulated post-disruption equilibria, shows that the n = 1 resistive kink instabilities develop in these plasmas, as the edge safety factor qa evolves and drops below integer numbers. RE mitigation by these MHD instabilities is sensitive to the eigenmode structure. The best mitigation is achieved as q a drops below 3, when a global kink instability occurs that encompasses both internal and external components. This global instability is found to be capable of mitigating over 80% MeV-level passing RE orbits at a field perturbation |δB|/B 0 that is comparable to that observed in DIII-D experiments, and full mitigation if the perturbation amplitude is doubled. The 'wetted' area on the ITER limiting surface, due to MHD instability induced RE loss, generally increases with the perturbation amplitude (together with increasing loss fraction). At the highest perturbation level assumed in this study, the wetted area reaches ~60% of the total limiting surface area. Lastly, the lost RE orbits mainly strike the outer divertor region of the limiting surface, with some fraction also hitting a wide area along the inboard side of the surface.

3D fields↗

DOE OSTI2021

NRAP-open-IAM: A flexible open-source integrated-assessment-model for geologic carbon storage risk assessment and management

Large-scale implementation of geologic carbon storage (GCS) to help reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions requires stakeholder confidence that injected CO2 will remain contained and that potential subsurface environmental risks are acceptably small and manageable. The U.S. Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) has developed an open-source integrated assessment model (NRAP-Open-IAM) to help address questions about a potential GCS site’s ability to effectively contain injected CO 2 and protect groundwater and other overlying environmentally sensitive receptors. NRAP-Open-IAM allows a user to: (1) incorporate relevant site geologic and injection scenario data; (2) characterize important site features and events;(3) couple fast prediction models of various system components of the engineered geologic system; and (4) execute stochastic, dynamic simulation of whole GCS system performance, leakage risk assessment, and uncertainty quantification. NRAP-Open-IAM is available on GitLab (https://gitlab.com/NRAP/OpenIAM), and is accompanied by multiple application examples and detailed user and developer guides.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic Continuous-time Flexibility Scheduling and Pricing in Wholesale Electricity Markets

Large-scale integration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RES) is calling for additional flexibility resources as well as more advanced modeling and optimization techniques to account for the increasing uncertainty and variability in power systems operation. As the RES integration gains momentum, the magnitude and frequency of their variations increase, which may trigger ramping scarcity events in real-time power systems operation. This necessitates revisiting the present definition of power systems flexibility and reserve services to reflect their robustness and adequacy towards sub-interval variations of the load and RES, as well as adjusting the operation models to accommodate the new reserve services. This project took a fundamental approach and aimed at developing continuous-time scheduling and pricing model that accurately models the continuous-time variations of load and RES and efficiently deploys the ramping capability of flexible resources to compensate the sources of variability and uncertainty in the market. In this regard, this project pursued the following goals: Developing stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time optimization models for scheduling of energy storage (ES) systems and flexible loads in wholesale energy markets; Developing the theory and practices of continuous-time locational marginal pricing for valuating energy storage systems and flexible loads in wholesale energy markets; Developing function space solution approach to convert the proposed stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time optimization models into tractable mixed-integer linear optimization models; and Defining flexibility reserve as a new type of reserve in markets that would enable ultimate participation of energy storage devices in provision of services to compensate the variability and uncertainty of RES in electricity markets. This project successfully completed all five major tasks defined in the SOPO, and produced 8 high-impact journal papers, 6 conference papers, 3 published U.S. patents, and one web-based software for continuous-time operation optimization of power systems. The application of the proposed flexibility reserve and the stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time operation scheduling models would modify the forward commitment and schedule of generating units, ES devices and flexible loads, and would line up the resources in such a way that the composition of available resources is better prepared to respond to the sub-hourly variations of the load and renewable resources in real-time operation. Therefore, this project paves the way to sustainable, reliable, and economic integration of renewable energy resources in power system, supporting the progress towards reaching the national targets on energy independence. Even if the proposed models offers a radically different point of view as compared to existing models, it does not alter fundamentally the architecture of power systems operations, nor the complexity of the scheduling problem, so the integration of this project in power systems is extremely practical.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1978

Robustness and computational aspects of nonlinear stochastic estimators and regulators

Robustness properties of nonlinear extended Kalman filters with constant gains and modeling errors are presented. Sufficient conditions for the nondivergence of state estimates generated by such nonlinear estimators are given. In addition, the overall robustness and stability properties of closed-loop stochastic regulators, based upon the linear-quadratic Gaussian design methodology using linearized dynamics, are presented; the sufficient conditions for closed-loop stability have a 'separation-type' property.

Safonov, M. G.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Robustness and computational aspects of nonlinear stochastic estimators and regulators

Robustness properties of nonlinear extended Kalman filters with constant gains and modeling errors are presented. Sufficient conditions for the nondivergence of state estimates generated by such nonlinear estimators are given. In addition, the overall robustness and stability properties of closed-loop stochastic regulators, based upon the Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian design methodology using linearized dynamics, are presented; the sufficient conditions for closed-loop stability have 'separation-type' property.

Safonov, M. G.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A data-driven framework for permeability prediction of natural porous rocks via microstructural characterization and pore-scale simulation

Understanding the microstructure–property relationships of porous media is of great practical significance, based on which macroscopic physical properties can be directly derived from measurable microstructural informatics. However, establishing reliable microstructure–property mappings in an explicit manner is difficult, due to the intricacy, stochasticity, and heterogeneity of porous microstructures. In this paper, a data-driven computational framework is presented to investigate the inherent microstructure–permeability linkage for natural porous rocks, where multiple techniques are integrated together, including microscopy imaging, stochastic reconstruction, microstructural characterization, pore-scale simulation, feature selection, and data-driven modeling. A large number of 3D digital rocks with a wide porosity range are acquired from microscopy imaging and stochastic reconstruction techniques. A broad variety of morphological descriptors are used to quantitatively characterize pore microstructures from different perspectives, and they compose the raw feature pool for feature selection. Here high-fidelity lattice Boltzmann simulations are conducted to resolve fluid flow passing through porous media, from which reliable permeability references are obtained. The optimal feature set that best represents permeability is identified through a performance-oriented feature selection process, upon which a cost-effective surrogate model is rapidly fitted to approximate the microstructure-permeability mapping via data-driven modeling. This surrogate model exhibits great advantages over empirical/analytical formulas in terms of prediction accuracy and generalization capacity, which can predict reliable permeability values spanning four orders of magnitude. Besides, feature selection also greatly enhances the interpretability of the data-driven prediction model, from which new insights into the mechanism of how microstructural characteristics determine intrinsic permeability are obtained.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1994

Effects of noise variance model on optimal feedback design and actuator placement

In optimal placement of actuators for stochastic systems, it is commonly assumed that the actuator noise variances are not related to the feedback matrix and the actuator locations. In this paper, we will discuss the limitation of that assumption and develop a more practical noise variance model. Various properties associated with optimal actuator placement under the assumption of this noise variance model are discovered through the analytical study of a second order system.

Ruan, Mifang↗

NASA NTRS2000

Research into the effects of astronaut motion on the spacecraft: a review

The paper reviews the research that has been undertaken to understand and quantify the disturbance effects of the astronaut's motion inside and outside the spacecraft on the vehicle's attitude and acceleratory environment. In early investigations, the dynamic interaction of astronauts, modeled as point masses, and the spacecraft, modelled as a rigid body, was analyzed. Through ground-based experiments and the modeling of astronaut-induced forces and moments as stochastic processes, it became possible to estimate the magnitude and energy content of the loads produced by the astronaut. The first experiment in space to measure the astronaut-induced disturbances was conducted on the Skylab orbital station. Loads generated while performing routine operations were measured on board the Space Shuttle in 1994 and on the space station Mir in 1996-1997. c 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Skylab Project↗

DOE OSTI2020

On the character of turbulent-like flows in self-consistent models of core-collapse supernovae

Neutrino-driven convection plays a crucial role in the development of core-collapse supernova (CCSN) explosions. However, the complex mechanism that triggers the shock revival and the subsequent explosion has remained inscrutable for many decades. Multidimensional simulations suggest that the growth of fluid instabilities, especially development of convection, will determine the morphology of the explosion. We have performed 3D simulations using spherical-polar coordinates covering a reduced angular extent (90° computational domain), and with angular resolutions of 2°, 1°, 1/2°, and 1/4°, to study the development of turbulent-like flows in core-collapse supernova explosions on a time scale of order 100 ms. We have employed the multi-physics Chimera code that includes detailed nuclear physics and spectral neutrino transport. Coarse resolution models do not develop an inertial range, presumably due to the bottleneck effect, such that the energy is prevented from cascading down to small scales and tends to accumulate at large scales. High-resolution models instead, start to recover the k −5/3 scaling of Kolmogorov's theory. Stochasticity and few simulation samples limit our ability to predict the development of explosions. Over the simulated time period, our models show no clear trend in improving (or diminishing) conditions for explosion as the angular resolution is increased. However, we find that disordered flow provides an effective pressure, as characterized by the Reynolds stress, behind the shock. This contribution, ~40%–50% of the thermal pressure, aids shock revival and thus the development of the explosion. Finally, we show that the kinetic energy power spectrum of reduced angular extent and full 4π models are consistent, thus indicating that a 90° computational domain is an adequate configuration to study the character of turbulence in CCSNe.

Casanova Bustamante, Jordi↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Attila Transport Code with MCNP in the Analysis of Small Modular Reactor Shielding

Of great importance in the design of a nuclear power plant is the evaluation of shielding from the ionizing radiation produced in the core of the nuclear reactor. This requires simulation software to predict the dose rates in the areas of interest. These problems are referred to as deep penetration problems, as they involve the reduction of a radiation field by two or three orders of magnitude or more. This makes accurate analyses difficult for Monte Carlo based solutions that rely on enough particles being sampled in an area of interest. Comparing the simulation of the same modeled system with more than one computer application, especially one that uses a different algorithmic approach, is a way to gain confidence in the results. In this research, two models were created, one in Monte Carlo N Particle (MCNP) which uses a stochastic algorithmic approach, and the other in Attila, which uses a deterministic algorithmic approach to test the validity of the model and to estimate the dose rates in the area of interest. Successful comparison of the two models is a way we can validate the model used for that estimation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗