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DOE OSTI2016

Thermal effects of groundwater flow through subarctic fens: A case study based on field observations and numerical modeling

Modeling and observation of ground temperature dynamics are the main tools for understanding current permafrost thermal regimes and projecting future thaw. Until recently, most studies on permafrost have focused on vertical ground heat fluxes. Groundwater can transport heat in both lateral and vertical directions but its influence on ground temperatures at local scales in permafrost environments is not well understood. In this paper, we combine field observations from a subarctic fen in the sporadic permafrost zone with numerical simulations of coupled water and thermal fluxes. At the Tavvavuoma study site in northern Sweden, ground temperature profiles and groundwater levels were observed in boreholes. These observations were used to set up one- and two-dimensional simulations down to 2 m depth across a gradient of permafrost conditions within and surrounding the fen. Two-dimensional scenarios representing the fen under various hydraulic gradients were developed to quantify the influence of groundwater flow on ground temperature. Our observations suggest that lateral groundwater flow significantly affects ground temperatures. This is corroborated by modeling results that show seasonal ground ice melts 1 month earlier when a lateral groundwater flux is present. Further, although the thermal regime may be dominated by vertically conducted heat fluxes during most of the year, isolated high groundwater flow rate events such as the spring freshet are potentially important for ground temperatures. Finally, as sporadic permafrost environments often contain substantial portions of unfrozen ground with active groundwater flow paths, knowledge of this heat transport mechanism is important for understanding permafrost dynamics in these environments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Evaluating geothermal and hydrogeologic controls on regional groundwater temperature distribution

Described is a one-dimensional (1-D) analytic solution is developed for heat transport through an aquifer system where the vertical temperature profile in the aquifer is nearly uniform. The general anisotropic form of the viscous heat generation term is developed for use in groundwater flow simulations. The 1-D solution is extended to more complex geometries by solving the equation for piece-wise linear or uniform properties and boundary conditions. A moderately complex example, the Eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), is analyzed to demonstrate the use of the analytic solution for identifying important physical processes. For example, it is shown that viscous heating is variably important and that heat conduction to the land surface is a primary control on the distribution of aquifer and spring temperatures. Use of published values for all aquifer and thermal properties results in a reasonable match between simulated and measured groundwater temperatures over most of the 300 km length of the ESRP, except for geothermal heat flow into the base of the aquifer within 20 km of the Yellowstone hotspot. Previous basal heat flow measurements (110 mW/m 2 ) made beneath the ESRP aquifer were collected at distances of > 50 km from the Yellowstone Plateau, but a higher basal heat flow of 150 mW/m 2 is required to match groundwater temperatures near the Plateau. As a result, the ESRP example demonstrates how the new tool can be used during preliminary analysis of a groundwater system, allowing efficient identification of the important physical processes that must be represented during more-complex 2-D and 3-D simulations of combined groundwater and heat flow.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Impact of data assimilation on Eulerian versus Lagrangian estimates of upper ocean transport

Using four-dimensional variational analysis, we produce an estimate of the state of a coastalregion in Northern Norway during the late winter and spring in 1984. We use satellite sea surface tempera-ture and in situ observations from a series of intensive field campaigns, and obtain a more realistic distribu-tion of water masses both in the horizontal and the vertical than a pure downscaling approach can achieve.Although the distribution of Eulerian surface current speeds are similar, we find that they are more variableand less dependent on model bathymetry in our reanalysis compared to a hindcast produced using thesame modeling system. Furthermore, Lagrangian drift currents on the other hand are significantly changed, with overallhigher kinetic energy levels in the reanalysis than in the hindcast, particularly in the superinertial frequencyband.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Biomass burning aerosol transport and vertical distribution over the South African-Atlantic region

Optically thick smoke aerosol plumes originating from biomass burning (BB) in the southwestern African Savanna during the austral spring are transported westward by the free tropospheric winds to primarily overlie vast stretches of stratocumulus cloud decks in the southeast Atlantic. In this work, we evaluated the simulations of long-range transport of BB aerosol by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) and four other global aerosol models over the complete South African-Atlantic region using Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations to find any distinguishing or common model biases. Models, in general, captured the vertical distribution of aerosol over land but exhibited some common features after long-range transport of smoke plumes that were distinct from that of CALIOP. Most importantly, the model-simulated BB aerosol plumes quickly descend to lower levels just off the western coast of the continent, while CALIOP data suggest that smoke plumes continue their horizontal transport at elevated levels above the marine boundary layer. This is crucial because the sign of simulated aerosol semidirect effect can change depending on whether the bulk of the absorbing aerosols is present within or above the cloud levels in a model. The levels to which the aerosol plumes get subsided and the steepness of their descent vary amongst the models and amongst the different subregions of the domain. Investigations into possible causes of differences between GEOS-5 and CALIOP aerosol transport over the ocean revealed a minimal role of aerosol removal process representation in the model as opposed to model dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Assessing Mountains as Natural Reservoirs With a Multimetric Framework

Anthropogenic climate change will continue to diminish the unique role that mountains perform as natural reservoirs and alter long‐held assumptions of water management. Climate models are important tools to help constrain uncertainty and understand processes that shape this decline. To ensure that climate model estimates provide stakeholder relevant information, the formulation of multimetric model evaluation frameworks informed by stakeholder interactions are critical. In this study, we present one such multimetric framework to evaluate snowpack data sets in the California Sierra Nevada: the snow water equivalent (SWE) triangle. SWE triangle metrics help to describe snowpack characteristics associated with total water volume buildup, peak water availability, and the rate of water release. This approach highlights compensating errors that would not be reflected in conventional large‐scale spatiotemporal analysis. To test our multimetric evaluation framework, we evaluate several publicly available snow products including the Sierra Nevada Snow Reanalysis, Livneh (L15), and the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 data sets. We then evaluate regional climate model skill within the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment. All data sets analyzed show variation across the various SWE triangle metrics, even within observationally constrained snow products. This spread was especially shown in spring season melt rates. Melt rate biases were prevalent throughout most regional climate model simulations, regardless of snow accumulation dynamics, and will need to be addressed to improve their utility for water stakeholders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Coccidioidomycosis Dynamics in Relation to Climate in the Southwestern United States: Cocci. and climate in the SW U.S.

Valley fever is endemic to the southwestern United States. Humans contract this fungal disease by inhaling spores of Coccidioides spp. Changes in the environment can influence the abundance and dispersal of Coccidioides spp., causing fluctuations in valley fever incidence. We combined county-level case records from state health agencies to create a regional valley fever database for the southwestern United States, including Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. We used this data set to explore how environmental factors influenced the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of valley fever incidence during 2000–2015. We compiled climate and environmental geospatial data sets from multiple sources to compare with valley fever incidence. These variables included air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, surface dust concentration, normalized difference vegetation index, and cropland area. We found that valley fever incidence was greater in areas with warmer air temperatures and drier soils. The mean annual cycle of incidence varied throughout the southwestern United States and peaked following periods of low precipitation and soil moisture. From year-to-year, however, autumn incidence was higher following cooler, wetter, and productive springs in the San Joaquin Valley of California. In southcentral Arizona, incidence increased significantly through time. By 2015, incidence in this region was more than double the rate in the San Joaquin Valley. Our analysis provides a framework for interpreting the influence of climate change on valley fever incidence dynamics. Our results may allow the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to improve their estimates of the spatial pattern and intensity of valley fever endemicity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Ambient observations of dimers from terpene oxidation in the gas phase: Implications for new particle formation and growth: Ambient Observations of Gas-Phase Dimers

Here, we present ambient observations of dimeric monoterpene oxidation products (C 16–20 H y O 6–9 ) in gas and particle phases in the boreal forest in Finland in spring 2013 and 2014, detected with a chemical ionization mass spectrometer with a filter inlet for gases and aerosols employing acetate and iodide as reagent ions. These are among the first online dual-phase observations of such dimers in the atmosphere. Estimated saturation concentrations of 10 -15 to 10 -6 µg m -3 (based on observed thermal desorptions and group-contribution methods) and measured gas-phase concentrations of 10 -3 to 10 -2 µg m -3 (~10 6 –10 7 molecules cm -3 ) corroborate a gas-phase formation mechanism. Regular new particle formation (NPF) events allowed insights into the potential role dimers may play for atmospheric NPF and growth. The observationally constrained Model for Acid-Base chemistry in NAnoparticle Growth indicates a contribution of ~5% to early stage particle growth from the ~60 gaseous dimer compounds.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Emergent anthropogenic trends in California Current upwelling

Upwelling in the California Current System (CCS) sustains a productive ecosystem and is mediated by alongshore, equatorward wind stress. A decades-old hypothesis proposes that global warming will accelerate these upwelling favorable winds. Recent analyses provide empirical support for upwelling intensification in the poleward portion of the CCS. However, these studies rely on proxies for upwelling and are limited in their ability to distinguish anthropogenic forcing from internal climate variability. Here in this paper we estimate simulated changes in CCS upwelling from 1920 to 2100 using monthly output from a single climate model ensemble, where divergences among simulations can be attributed entirely to internal climate variability. Our projections suggest that CCS upwelling will become more intense in the spring and less intense in the summer as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Anthropogenic changes in upwelling will emerge primarily in the second half of the century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

The Impact of Frictional Healing on Stick-Slip Recurrence Interval and Stress Drop: Implications for Earthquake Scaling: The impact of healing on stick-slip

We report that interseismic frictional healing is an essential process in the seismic cycle. Observations of both natural and laboratory earthquakes demonstrate that the magnitude of stress drop scales with the logarithm of recurrence time, which is a cornerstone of the rate and state friction (RSF) laws. However, the origin of this log linear behavior and short time “cutoff” for small recurrence intervals remains poorly understood. Here we use RSF laws to demonstrate that the back-projected time of null-healing intrinsically scales with the initial frictional state θ i . We explore this behavior and its implications for (1) the short-term cutoff time of frictional healing and (2) the connection between healing rates derived from stick-slip sliding versus slide-hold-slide tests. We use a novel, continuous solution of RSF for a one-dimensional spring-slider system with inertia. The numerical solution continuously traces frictional state evolution (and healing) and shows that stick-slip cutoff time also scales with frictional state at the conclusion of the dynamic slip process θ i (=D c /V peak ). This numerical investigation on the origins of stick-slip response is verified by comparing laboratory data for a range of peak slip velocities. Slower slip motions yield lesser magnitude of friction drop at a given time due to higher frictional state at the end of each slip event. In conclusion, our results provide insight on the origin of log linear stick-slip evolution and suggest an approach to estimating the critical slip distance on faults that exhibit gradual accelerations, such as for slow earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Modeling the climate impacts of deploying solar reflective cool pavements in California cities

Solar reflective “cool pavements” have been proposed as a potential heat mitigation strategy for cities. However, previous research has not systematically investigated the extent to which cool pavements could reduce urban temperatures. In this study we investigated the climate impacts of widespread deployment of cool pavements in California cities. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, we simulated the current climate of California at 4 km spatial resolution. Comparing this simulation to 105 weather stations in California suggested an overall mean bias (model minus observation) of -0.30°C. Widespread pavement albedo increases of 0.1 and 0.4 in California cities were then simulated. Comparing temperature reductions for each scenario showed that the climate response to pavement albedo modification was nearly linear. Temperature reductions at 14:00 local standard time were found to be 0.32°C per 0.1 increase in grid cell average albedo. Temperature reductions were found to peak in the late morning and evening when (a) boundary layer heights were low and (b) solar irradiance (late morning) and heat accumulation in the pavement (evening) was high. Temperature reductions in summer were found to exceed those in winter, as expected. After scaling the results using realistic data-derived urban canyon morphologies and an off-line urban canyon albedo model, annual average surface air temperature reductions from increasing pavement albedo by 0.4 ranged from 0.18°C (Palm Springs) to 0.86°C (San Jose). We note the variation among cities was due to differences in baseline climate, size of the city, urban fraction, and urban morphology.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2018

CAUSES: On the Role of Surface Energy Budget Errors to the Warm Surface Air Temperature Error Over the Central United States

Many weather forecasting and climate models simulate a warm surface air temperature (T2m) bias over mid-latitude continents during the summertime, especially over the Great Plains. We present here one of a series of papers from a multi-model intercomparison project (CAUSES: Cloud Above the United States and Errors at the Surface), which aims to evaluate the role of cloud, radiation, and precipitation biases in contributing to T2m bias using a short-term hindcast approach with observations mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site during the period of April to August 2011. The present study examines the contribution of surface energy budget errors to the bias. All participating models simulate higher net shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes at the surface but there is no consistency on signs of biases in latent and sensible heat fluxes over the Central U.S. and ARM SGP. Nevertheless, biases in net shortwave and downward longwave fluxes, as well as surface evaporative fraction (EF) are the main contributors to T2m bias. Radiation biases are largely affected by cloud simulations, while EF is affected by soil moisture modulated by seasonal accumulated precipitation and evaporation. An approximate equation is derived to further quantify the magnitudes of radiation and EF contributions to T2m bias. Our analysis suggests that radiation errors are always an important source of T2m error for long-term climate runs with EF errors either of equal or lesser importance. However, for the short-term hindcasts, EF errors are more important provided a model has a substantial EF bias.

Ma, H. -Y.↗

DOE OSTI2017

The Diurnal Cycle of Clouds and Precipitation at the ARM SGP Site: An Atmospheric State-Based Analysis and Error Decomposition of a Multiscale Modeling Framework Simulation

Long–term reflectivity data collected by a millimeter cloud radar at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site are used to examine the diurnal cycle of clouds and precipitation and are compared with the diurnal cycle simulated by a Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) climate model. The study uses a set of atmospheric states that were created specifically for the SGP and for the purpose of investigating under what synoptic conditions models compare well with observations on a statistical basis (rather than using case studies or seasonal or longer time scale averaging). Differences in the annual mean diurnal cycle between observations and the MMF are decomposed into differences due to the relative frequency of states, the daily mean vertical profile of hydrometeor occurrence, and the (normalized) diurnal variation of hydrometeors in each state. Here the hydrometeors are classified as cloud or precipitation based solely on the reflectivity observed by a millimeter radar or generated by a radar simulator. The results show that the MMF does not capture the diurnal variation of low clouds well in any of the states but does a reasonable job capturing the diurnal variations of high clouds and precipitation in some states. In particular, the diurnal variations in states that occur during summer are reasonably captured by the MMF, while the diurnal variations in states that occur during the transition seasons (spring and fall) are not well captured. Overall, the errors in the annual composite are due primarily to errors in the daily mean of hydrometeor occurrence (rather than diurnal variations), but errors in the state frequency (that is, the distribution of weather states in the model) also play a significant role.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Quantifying the Role of Snowmelt in Stream Discharge in an Alaskan Watershed: An Analysis Using a Spatially Distributed Surface Hydrology Model

Here, this study uses a spatially distributed surface hydrology model to investigate the role of snowmelt in stream discharge for the Tanana Flats Basin in interior Alaska. The Parameter ESTimation code is used to calibrate the model with observed stream discharge data. The model was further evaluated using remote sensing-based snow cover product and in situ snowpack water equivalent (SWE) observations. A 36 year (1980–2015) U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System simulation shows (1) the monthly stream discharge from the Tanana Flats Basin in April decreased by 44%; (2) snow cover area at high altitudes (above 2000 m) decreased in summer, both SWE and snowmelt also decreased significantly, especially in spring; (3) the timings of snowmelt onset and ending shifted by 2 (earlier) and 5 (later) days per decade, respectively; and (4) snowmelt accounts for 40% of the annual stream discharge. This study provides a quantitative tool to investigating hydrological systems considering the impacts of snow dynamics in cold regions. Additionally, this study suggests that future warming will further decrease snow coverage, advance snow melting time, and hereafter change the stream discharge dynamics in the Arctic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Quantifying the Effects of Snowpack on Soil Thermal and Carbon Dynamics of the Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems

Snow insulation effects modify soil and carbon dynamics in northern middle to high latitudes (45°–90°N). This study incorporates these effects by introducing a snow model into an existing soil thermal model in a biogeochemistry modeling framework, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model. The coupled model is used to quantify snow insulation effects on carbon and soil thermal dynamics in 45°–90°N region for the historical period (2003–2010) and the future period (2017–2099) under two climate scenarios. The revised model captures the snow insulation effects and improves the estimates of soil thermal dynamics and the land freeze-thaw as well as terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics. Historical mean cold-season soil temperature at 5 cm depth driven with satellite-based snow data is 6.4°C warmer in comparison with the original model simulation. Frozen area in late spring is estimated to shrink mainly over eastern Siberia, in central to eastern Europe, and along southern Canada in November. During each nongrowing season in the historical period, 0.41 Pg more soil C is released due to warmer soil temperature estimated using the new model. During 2003–2010, the revised model estimates that the region accumulated 0.86 Pg less C due to weaker gross primary production, leading to a regional C loss at 0.19 PgC/year. The revised model projects that the region will lose 38–51% permafrost area by 2100 and continue to be a C source under the low-emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6) but to be gradually transitioning into a weak sink in the latter half of the 21st century under the high-emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

The Roles of Convection Parameterization in the Formation of Double ITCZ Syndrome in the NCAR CESM: I. Atmospheric Processes

Abstract Several improvements are implemented in the Zhang‐McFarlane (ZM) convection scheme to investigate the roles of convection parameterization in the formation of double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) bias in the NCAR CESM1.2.1. It is shown that the prominent double ITCZ biases of precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind stress in the standard CESM1.2.1 are largely eliminated in all seasons with the use of these improvements in convection scheme. This study for the first time demonstrates that the modifications of convection scheme can eliminate the double ITCZ biases in all seasons, including boreal winter and spring. Further analysis shows that the elimination of the double ITCZ bias is achieved not by improving other possible contributors, such as stratus cloud bias off the west coast of South America and cloud/radiation biases over the Southern Ocean, but by modifying the convection scheme itself. This study demonstrates that convection scheme is the primary contributor to the double ITCZ bias in the CESM1.2.1, and provides a possible solution to the long‐standing double ITCZ problem. The atmospheric model simulations forced by observed SST show that the original ZM convection scheme tends to produce double ITCZ bias in high SST scenario, while the modified convection scheme does not. The impact of changes in each core component of convection scheme on the double ITCZ bias in atmospheric model is identified and further investigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Interpretation of Ground Temperature Anomalies in Hydrothermal Discharge Areas

Abstract Researchers have long noted the potential for shallow hydrothermal fluids to perturb near‐surface temperatures. Several investigators have made qualitative or semiquantitative use of elevated surface temperatures; for example, in snowfall calorimetry, or for tracing subsurface flow paths. However, a quantitative framework connecting surface temperature observations with conditions in the subsurface is currently lacking. Here, we model an area of shallow subsurface flow at Burgdorf Hot Springs, a rustic commercial resort in the Payette National Forest, north of McCall, ID, USA. We calibrate the model using shallow (0.2 m depth) ground temperature measurements and overburden thickness estimates from seismic refraction studies. The calibrated model predicts negligible loss of heat energy from the laterally migrating fluids at the Burgdorf site, in spite of the fact that thermal anomalies are observed in the unconsolidated near‐surface alluvium. Although elevated near‐surface ground temperatures are commonly assumed to result from locally high heat flux, this conflicts with the small apparent heat loss during lateral flow inferred at the Burgdorf site. We hypothesize an alternative explanation for near‐surface temperature anomalies that is only weakly dependent on heat flux, and more strongly controlled by the Biot number, a dimensionless parameter that compares the rate at which convection carries heat away from the land surface to the rate at which it is supplied by conduction to the interface.

Price, Adam N.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multimorphic Materials: Spatially Tailoring Mechanical Properties via Selective Initiation of Interpenetrating Polymer Networks

Access to multimaterial polymers with spatially localized properties and robust interfaces is anticipated to enable new capabilities in soft robotics, such as smooth actuation for advanced medical and manufacturing technologies. Here, orthogonal initiation is used to create interpenetrating polymer networks (IPNs) with spatial control over morphology and mechanical properties. Base catalyzes the formation of a stiff and strong polyurethane, while blue LEDs initiate the formation of a soft and elastic polyacrylate. IPN morphology is controlled by when the LED is turned “on”, with large phase separation occurring for short time delays (≈1–2 min) and a mixed morphology for longer time delays (>5 min), which is supported by dynamic mechanical analysis, small angle X-ray scattering, and atomic force microscopy. Through tailoring morphology, tensile moduli and fracture toughness can be tuned across ≈1–2 orders of magnitude. Furthermore, a simple spring model is used to explain the observed mechanical behavior. Photopatterning produces “multimorphic” materials, where morphology is spatially localized with fine precision (<100 µm), while maintaining a uniform chemical composition throughout to mitigate interfacial failure. As a final demonstration, the fabrication of hinges represents a possible use case for multimorphic materials in soft robotics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Two–Photon Printing of Shape–Memory Microstructures and Metasurfaces via Radical–Mediated Thiol–Vinyl Hydrothiolation

Shape-memory resists capable of high-resolution curing into arbitrarily designed structures are increasingly demanded for soft robotics, optical sensors, microscale manufacturing, and biomedicine. Amorphous, shape-memory thiol-vinyl networks were printed using two-photon polymerization (2PP) curing of a simple resin formulated with commercially available reagents. The ability to print high-resolution feature sizes down to 200 nm is attributed to the use of radicalmediated, thiol-vinyl step-growth polymerization that quickly crosslinks the resin, limiting diffusive transport. The thermomechanical behavior of the 2PP-cured material analyzed in compression, tension and three-point bending is similar to the behavior of the UV-polymerized samples. To demonstrate the ability to design, field, and test 4D responsive microstructures, an array of nine springs with coil diameters of 330 μm was printed. Following compressive shapefixing, printed arrays can release 11 μJ of stored elastic strain energy when reheated. Further, a new concept of dichroic-memory of a metamaterial device is demonstrated by printing a twisted woodpile structure with circular dichroism as characterized by Mueller Matrix ellipsometry. Furthermore, our results demonstrate how combining high-resolution 2PP curing with stimuli-responsive molecular architectures can further the engineering of responsive microstructures and metamaterials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗