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NASA NTRS2023

The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP)

Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate characteristics and have been one of the dominant drivers of decadal trends in Asian and African precipitation. These and other influences on regional climate from changes in aerosol emissions are expected to continue and potentially strengthen in the coming decades. However, a combination of large uncertainties in emission pathways, radiative forcing, and the dynamical response to forcing makes anthropogenic aerosol a key factor in the spread of near-term climate projections, particularly on regional scales, and therefore an important one to constrain. For example, in terms of future emission pathways, the uncertainty in future global aerosol and precursor gas emissions by 2050 is as large as the total increase in emissions since 1850. In terms of aerosol effective radiative forcing, which remains the largest source of uncertainty in future climate change projections, CMIP6 models span a factor of 5, from −0.3 to −1.5 W m−2. Both of these sources of uncertainty are exacerbated on regional scales. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) will deliver experiments designed to quantify the role of regional aerosol emissions changes in near-term projections. This is unlike any prior MIP, where the focus has been on changes in global emissions and/or very idealised aerosol experiments. Perturbing regional emissions makes RAMIP novel from a scientific standpoint and links the intended analyses more directly to mitigation and adaptation policy issues. From a science perspective, there is limited information on how realistic regional aerosol emissions impact local as well as remote climate conditions. Here, RAMIP will enable an evaluation of the full range of potential influences of realistic and regionally varied aerosol emission changes on near-future climate. From the policy perspective, RAMIP addresses the burning question of how local and remote decisions affecting emissions of aerosols influence climate change in any given region. Here, RAMIP will provide the information needed to make direct links between regional climate policies and regional climate change. RAMIP experiments are designed to explore sensitivities to aerosol type and location and provide improved constraints on uncertainties driven by aerosol radiative forcing and the dynamical response to aerosol changes. The core experiments will assess the effects of differences in future global and regional (Africa and the Middle East, East Asia, North America and Europe, and South Asia) aerosol emission trajectories through 2051, while optional experiments will test the nonlinear effects of varying emission locations and aerosol types along this future trajectory. All experiments are based on the shared socioeconomic pathways and are intended to be performed with 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) generation models, initialised from the CMIP6 historical experiments, to facilitate comparisons with existing projections. Requested outputs will enable the analysis of the role of aerosol in near-future changes in, for example, temperature and precipitation means and extremes, storms, and air quality.

anthropogenic aerosol emissions↗
NASA NTRS1994

Computational Approaches to Vestibular Research

The Biocomputation Center at NASA Ames Research Center is dedicated to a union between computational, experimental and theoretical approaches to the study of neuroscience and of life sciences in general. The current emphasis is on computer reconstruction and visualization of vestibular macular architecture in three-dimensions (3-D), and on mathematical modeling and computer simulation of neural activity in the functioning system. Our methods are being used to interpret the influence of spaceflight on mammalian vestibular maculas in a model system, that of the adult Sprague-Dawley rat. More than twenty 3-D reconstructions of type I and type II hair cells and their afferents have been completed by digitization of contours traced from serial sections photographed in a transmission electron microscope. This labor-intensive method has now been replace d by a semiautomated method developed in the Biocomputation Center in which conventional photography is eliminated. All viewing, storage and manipulation of original data is done using Silicon Graphics workstations. Recent improvements to the software include a new mesh generation method for connecting contours. This method will permit the investigator to describe any surface, regardless of complexity, including highly branched structures such as are routinely found in neurons. This same mesh can be used for 3-D, finite volume simulation of synapse activation and voltage spread on neuronal surfaces visualized via the reconstruction process. These simulations help the investigator interpret the relationship between neuroarchitecture and physiology, and are of assistance in determining which experiments will best test theoretical interpretations. Data are also used to develop abstract, 3-D models that dynamically display neuronal activity ongoing in the system. Finally, the same data can be used to visualize the neural tissue in a virtual environment. Our exhibit will depict capabilities of our computational approaches and some of our findings from their application. For example, our research has demonstrated that maculas of adult mammals retain the property of synaptic plasticity. Ribbon synapses increase numerically and undergo changes in type and distribution (p<0.0001) in type II hair cells after exposure to microgravity for as few as nine days. The finding of macular synaptic plasticity is pertinent to the clinic, and may help explain some. balance disorders in humans. The software used in our investigations will be demonstrated for those interested in applying it in their own research.

Ross, Muriel D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Kyasanur forest disease in resource-limited settings using event-based surveillance and transfer learning

In recent years, the reports of Kyasanur forest disease (KFD) breaking endemic barriers by spreading to new regions and crossing state boundaries is alarming. Effective disease surveillance and reporting systems are lacking for this emerging zoonosis, hence hindering control and prevention efforts. We compared time-series models using weather data with and without Event-Based Surveillance (EBS) information, i.e., news media reports and internet search trends, to predict monthly KFD cases in humans. We fitted Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and Long Short-Term Memory models at the national and regional levels. We utilized the rich epidemiological data from endemic regions by applying Transfer Learning (TL) techniques to predict KFD cases in new outbreak regions where disease surveillance information was scarce. Overall, the inclusion of EBS data, in addition to the weather data, substantially increased the prediction performance across all models. The XGB method produced the best predictions at the national and regional levels. The TL techniques outperformed baseline models in predicting KFD in new outbreak regions. Novel sources of data and advanced machine-learning approaches, e.g., EBS and TL, show great potential towards increasing disease prediction capabilities in data-scarce scenarios and/or resource-limited settings, for better-informed decisions in the face of emerging zoonotic threats.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Variable stars in Local Group galaxies – V. The fast and early evolution of the low-mass Eridanus II dSph galaxy

ABSTRACT We present a detailed study of the variable star population of Eridanus II (Eri II), an ultra-faint dwarf galaxy that lies close to the Milky Way virial radius. We analyse multi-epoch g, r, i ground-based data from Goodman and the Dark Energy Camera, plus F475W, F606W, F814W space data from the Advanced Camera for Surveys. We report the detection of 67 RR Lyrae (RRL) stars and 2 Anomalous Cepheids, most of them new discoveries. With the RRL stars, we measure the distance modulus of Eri II, μ0 = 22.84 ± 0.05 mag (D⊙ = 370 ± 9 kpc), and derive a metallicity spread of 0.3 dex (0.2 dex intrinsic). The colour distribution of the horizontal branch (HB) and the period distribution of the RRL stars can be nicely reproduced by a combination of two stellar models of [Fe/H] = (−2.62, −2.14). The overall low metallicity is consistent with the red giant branch bump location, 0.65 mag brighter than the HB. These results are in agreement with previous spectroscopic studies. The more metal-rich RRL and the RRab stars have greater central concentration than the more metal-poor RRL and the RRc stars that are mainly located outside ∼1 rh. This is similar to what is found in larger dwarf galaxies such as Sculptor, and in agreement with an outside-in galaxy formation scenario. This is remarkable in such a faint dwarf galaxy with an apparently single and extremely short (<1 Gyr) star formation burst. Finally, we have derived new and independent structural parameters for Eri II and its star cluster using our new data that are in very good agreement with previous estimates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1973

Amplitude variations of whistler-mode signals caused by their interaction with energetic electrons of the magnetosphere

Whistler mode waves that propagate through the magnetosphere exchange energy with energetic electrons by wave-particle interaction mechanisms. Using linear theory, a detailed investigation is presented of the resulting amplitude variations of the wave as it propagates. Arbitrary wave frequency and direction of propagation are considered. A general class of electron distributions that are nonseparable in particle energy and pitch-angle is proposed. It is found that the proposed distribution model is consistent with available whistler and particle observations. This model yields insignificant amplitude variation over a large frequency band, a feature commonly observed in whistler data. This feature implies a certain equilibrium between waves and particles in the magnetosphere over a wide spread of particle energy, and is relevant to plasma injection experiments and to monitoring the distribution of energetic electrons in the magnetosphere.

Bernard, L. C.↗
NASA NTRS1975

MTF and point-spread function for a large-area CCD imager

The MTF degradation due to lateral diffusion is calculated for a back illuminated CCD imager for typical device parameters. The discrete nature of the CCD and finite size of the photosensitive elements result in an additional MTF degradation. The Fourier transform approach is utilized to calculate the effective point spread function for these processes in the time domain. Experimental data are presented on the point spread function for a three phase, double level anodized aluminum 160 x 100 thinned and back illuminated CCD imager and compared with the theoretical results. A simple modification of the Crowell and Labuda model suggested by these results is presented.

Ando, K. J.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Faint Object Camera imaging and spectroscopy of NGC 4151

We describe ultraviolet and optical imaging and spectroscopy within the central few arcseconds of the Seyfert galaxy NGC 4151, obtained with the Faint Object Camera on the Hubble Space Telescope. A narrowband image including (O III) lambda(5007) shows a bright nucleus centered on a complex biconical structure having apparent opening angle approximately 65 deg and axis at a position angle along 65 deg-245 deg; images in bands including Lyman-alpha and C IV lambda(1550) and in the optical continuum near 5500 A, show only the bright nucleus. In an off-nuclear optical long-slit spectrum we find a high and a low radial velocity component within the narrow emission lines. We identify the low-velocity component with the bright, extended, knotty structure within the cones, and the high-velocity component with more confined diffuse emission. Also present are strong continuum emission and broad Balmer emission line components, which we attribute to the extended point spread function arising from the intense nuclear emission. Adopting the geometry pointed out by Pedlar et al. (1993) to explain the observed misalignment of the radio jets and the main optical structure we model an ionizing radiation bicone, originating within a galactic disk, with apex at the active nucleus and axis centered on the extended radio jets. We confirm that through density bounding the gross spatial structure of the emission line region can be reproduced with a wide opening angle that includes the line of sight, consistent with the presence of a simple opaque torus allowing direct view of the nucleus. In particular, our modelling reproduces the observed decrease in position angle with distance from the nucleus, progressing initially from the direction of the extended radio jet, through our optical structure, and on to the extended narrow-line region. We explore the kinematics of the narrow-line low- and high-velocity components on the basis of our spectroscopy and adopted model structure.

Boksenberg, A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Effects of Vegetative Type, Edges, Fire History, Rainfall and Management in Fire-Maintained Habitat

The combined effects of fire history, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) on habitat specialists need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually only emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights, which are dynamic because of frequent fires. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells (that represented potential territories) because fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities vary between states as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges (e.g., roads, forests), precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presence/absence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the longest fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Edges reduced the effectiveness of fires in setting degraded scrub and flatwoods into earlier successional states making mechanical cutting an important tool to compliment frequent prescribed fires.

Breininger, David R.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Simulating the Cascading Effects of an Extreme Agricultural Production Shock: Global Implications of a Contemporary US Dust Bowl Event

Higher temperatures expected by midcentury increase the risk of shocks to crop production, while the interconnected nature of the current global food system functions to spread the impact of localized production shocks throughout the world. In this study, we analyze the global potential impact of a present-day event of equivalent magnitude to the US Dust Bowl, modeling the ways in which a sudden decline in US wheat production could cascade through the global network of agricultural trade. We use observations of country-level production, reserves, and trade data in a Food Shock Cascade model to explore trade adjustments and country-level inventory changes in response to a major, multiyear production decline. We find that a 4-year decline in wheat production of the same proportional magnitude as occurred during the Dust Bowl greatly reduces both wheat supply and reserves in the United States and propagates through the global trade network. By year 4 of the event, US wheat exports fall from 90.5 trillion kcal before the drought to 48 trillion to 52 trillion kcal, and the United States exhausts 94% of its reserves. As a result of reduced US exports, other countries meet their needs by leveraging their own reserves, leading to a 31% decline in wheat reserves globally. These findings demonstrate that an extreme production decline would lead to substantial supply shortfalls in both the United States and in other countries, where impacts outside the United States strongly depend on a country's reserves and on its relative position in the global trade network.

Heslin, Alison↗
NASA NTRS2013

Analytic Theory of Titans Schumann Resonance: Constraints on Ionospheric Conductivity and Buried Water Ocean

This study presents an approximate model for the atypical Schumann resonance in Titan's atmosphere that accounts for the observations of electromagnetic waves and the measurements of atmospheric conductivity performed with the Huygens Atmospheric Structure and Permittivity, Wave and Altimetry (HASI-PWA) instrumentation during the descent of the Huygens Probe through Titan's atmosphere in January 2005. After many years of thorough analyses of the collected data, several arguments enable us to claim that the Extremely Low Frequency (ELF) wave observed at around 36 Hz displays all the characteristics of the second harmonic of a Schumann resonance. On Earth, this phenomenon is well known to be triggered by lightning activity. Given the lack of evidence of any thunderstorm activity on Titan, we proposed in early works a model based on an alternative powering mechanism involving the electric current sheets induced in Titan's ionosphere by the Saturn's magnetospheric plasma flow. The present study is a further step in improving the initial model and corroborating our preliminary assessments. We first develop an analytic theory of the guided modes that appear to be the most suitable for sustaining Schumann resonances in Titan's atmosphere. We then introduce the characteristics of the Huygens electric field measurements in the equations, in order to constrain the physical parameters of the resonating cavity. The latter is assumed to be made of different structures distributed between an upper boundary, presumably made of a succession of thin ionized layers of stratospheric aerosols spread up to 150 km and a lower quasi-perfect conductive surface hidden beneath the non-conductive ground. The inner reflecting boundary is proposed to be a buried water-ammonia ocean lying at a likely depth of 55-80 km below a dielectric icy crust. Such estimate is found to comply with models suggesting that the internal heat could be transferred upwards by thermal conduction of the crust, while convective processes cannot be ruled out.

TITAN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatial Resolution of a microCT Scanner

We have measured the spatial resolution of the 450 kV test-bed microCT scanner. We have also modeled the resolution analytically. The model and measurement show correspondence within 5%. Our measurement method was to use a thin tungsten wire to act as an impulse function. Therefore, the image is the impulse response, also called the point spread function (PSF) of the system. The Fourier transform (FT) of the impulse response is the modulation transfer function (MTF) of the system. We report the MTF here. By moving the wire at different positions in the scan field of view (FOV), we can measure MTF at different positions in the FOV. Since our imaging system is radially symmetric, we report MTF in two directions, radial and tangential as shown in Figure 1. The radial direction is along the line from isocenter to the wire, and the tangential is perpendicular to it.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1978

The prediction of turbulence and wind shear associated with thunderstorm gust fronts

The parametric dependence of storm simulation is explored on the basis of the previously reported (1977) second-order closure model of turbulence designed to simulate a thunderstorm gust front. The model simulation results are intended for extrapolation to the conditions considered most hazardous to aircraft operation. It is shown that the presistence and strength of the gust front are enhanced significantly by increasing the spread of the downdraft shaft and the velocity at the top of the domain. Turbulence develops in the regions of high shear and is most intense near the corner and within the gust front itself. While the center shaft is certainly an area to be avoided, the gust front region is probably more critical because it may extend over a large region far from the center of the downdraft, in a highly transient state.

Teske, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Radiation experiments on Cosmos 2044: K-7-41, parts A, B, C, D, E

The Cosmos 2044 biosatellite mission offered the opportunity for radiation measurements under conditions which are seldom available (an inclination of 82.3 deg and attitude of 294 x 216 km). Measurements were made on the outside of the spacecraft under near-zero shielding conditions. Also, this mission was the first in which active temperature recorders (the ATR-4) were flown to record the temperature profiles of detector stacks. Measurements made on this mission provide a comparison and test for modeling of depth doses and LET spectra for orbital parameters previously unavailable. Tissue absorbed doses from 3480 rad (252 rad/d) down to 0.115 rad (8.33 mrad/d) were measured at different depths (0.0146 and 3.20 g/sq cm, respectively) with averaged TLD readings. The LET spectra yielded maximum and minimum values of integral flux of 27.3 x 10(exp -4) and 3.05 x 10(exp -4)/sq cm/s/sr, of dose rate of 7.01 and 1.20 mrad/d, and of dose equivalent rate of 53.8 and 11.6 mrem/d, for LET(sub infinity)-H2O is greater than or equal to 4 keV/micron. Neutron measurements yielded 0.018 mrem/d in the thermal region, 0.25 mrem/d in the resonance region and 3.3 mrem/d in the high energy region. The TLD depth dose and LET spectra were compared with calculations from the modeling codes. The agreement is good but some further refinements are in order. In comparing measurements on Cosmos 2044 with those from previous Cosmos missions (orbital inclinations of 62.8 deg) there is a greater spread (maximum to minimum) in depth doses and an increased contribution from GCRs, and higher LET particles, in the heavy particle fluxes.

Frank, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Experiment K-7-41: Radiation Experiments on Cosmos 2044

The Cosmos 2044 biosatellite mission offered the opportunity for radiation measurements under conditions which are seldom available (an inclination of 82.3 degrees and altitude of 294 x 216 km). Measurements were made on the outside of the spacecraft under near-zero shielding conditions. Also, this mission was the first in which active temperature recorders (the ATR-4) were flown to record the temperature profiles of detector stacks. Measurements made on this mission provide a comparison and test for modeling of depth doses and LET spectra for orbital parameters previously unavailable. Tissue absorbed doses from 3480 rad (252 rad/d) down to 0.115 rad (8.33 mrad/d) were measured at different depths (0.0146 and 3.20 g/sq. cm, respectively) with averaged TLD readings. The LET spectra yielded maximum and minimum values of integral flux of 27.3 x 10-4 and 3.05 x 10(exp -4) cm(exp -2).s(exp -1).sr(exp -4) of dose rate of 7.01 and 1.20 mrad/d, and of dose equivalent rate of 53.8 and 11.6 mrem/d, for LET(infinity).H2O is greater than or equal to 4 keV/micro-m. Neutron measurements yielded 0.018 mremld in the thermal region, 0.25 mrem/d in the resonance region and 3.3 mrem/d in the high energy region. The TLD depth dose and LET spectra have been compared with calculations from the modeling codes. The agreement is good but some further refinements are in order. In comparing measurements on Cosmos 2044 with those from previous Cosmos missions (orbital inclinations of 62.8 degrees) there is a greater spread (maximum to minimum) in depth doses and an increased contribution from GCR's, and higher LET particles, in the heavy particle fluxes.

Benton, E. V.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Stratospheric Age Spectra and Mean Ages from In Situ Observations of Carbon Dioxide

In situ observations of CO2 obtained from 1992 through 2000 using the NASA ER-2 aircraft and high-altitude balloons show that seasonal and interannual variations in CO2 mixing ratios propagate from the troposphere into the lower stratosphere via the tropical tropopause, along with the long-term trend due to fossil fuel combustion. These signals spread laterally and vertically, providing detailed quantitative information about the transport history of sampled air. We have used these data to derive age spectra and mean ages that can be compared with results from models of the stratospheric circulation. For an air parcel at a point in the stratosphere, the age spectrum is defined as the probability distribution function for transit times from the tropical tropopause for each fluid element comprising the parcel. The mean age is the average transit time, corresponding to the first moment of the age spectrum. Age spectra have been derived for altitudes below approximately 20 km for the tropics and for northern midlatitudes where there is sufficient data and where the amplitudes of the seasonal and interannual oscillations in CO2 mixing ratios are large enough to be detected. Tropical age spectra are narrow, with seasonal variation indicating faster ascent during northern winter, consistent with a circulation driven by breaking of extratropical waves. The midlatitude CO2 data are consistent with bimodal age spectra, which could result from a subtropical "barrier" to horizontal exchange over a substantial altitude region. Seasonally resolved mean ages are available with nearly pole-to-pole coverage below 20 km and in the tropics and at middle and high northern latitudes up to the maximum altitude reached by the balloons (approximately 30 km). At ER-2 altitudes, steep meridional gradients in mean age are observed in the subtropics. Between 20 and 30 km, midlatitude air is approximately 2 years older than tropical air at the same altitude. The oldest air sampled was in the Arctic polar vortex with a mean age of .5 plus or minus 0.5 years. This value is much younger than mean ages inferred from simultaneous and previous observations of SF6 in the Arctic vortex, providing evidence for a mesospheric sink for SF6. The mean age in the midlatitude middle stratosphere (approximately 25-32 km) is nearly constant with respect to altitude at 5 plus or minus 0.5 years. Comparison with earlier balloon observations of CO2 dating back to the 1970s shows that the mean age of air in this region has been relatively invariant over the last 25 years.

Andrews, Arlyn E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A general framework for removing point-spread function additive systematics in cosmological weak lensing analysis

ABSTRACT Cosmological weak lensing measurements rely on a precise measurement of the shear two-point correlation function (2PCF) along with a deep understanding of systematics that affect it. In this work, we demonstrate a general framework for detecting and modelling the impact of PSF systematics on the cosmic shear 2PCF and mitigating its impact on cosmological analysis. Our framework can detect PSF leakage and modelling error from all spin-2 quantities contributed by the PSF second and higher moments, rather than just the second moments, using the cross-correlations between galaxy shapes and PSF moments. We interpret null tests using the HSC Year 3 (Y3) catalogs with this formalism and find that leakage from the spin-2 combination of PSF fourth moments is the leading contributor to additive shear systematics, with total contamination that is an order-of-magnitude higher than that contributed by PSF second moments alone. We conducted a mock cosmic shear analysis for HSC Y3 and find that, if uncorrected, PSF systematics can bias the cosmological parameters Ωm and S8 by ∼0.3σ. The traditional second moment-based model can only correct for a 0.1σ bias, leaving the contamination largely uncorrected. We conclude it is necessary to model both PSF second and fourth moment contaminations for HSC Y3 cosmic shear analysis. We also reanalyse the HSC Y1 cosmic shear analysis with our updated systematics model and identify a 0.07σ bias on Ωm when using the more restricted second moment model from the original analysis. We demonstrate how to self-consistently use the method in both real space and Fourier space, assess shear systematics in tomographic bins, and test for PSF model overfitting.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Flexure and the role of inplane force around coronae on Venus

Large coronae on Venus, such as Artemis and Latona, are rimmed by conspicuous trenches and associated outer rises. Sandwell and Schubert have observed that these systems resemble terrestrial subduction zones in planform and have succeeded in fitting an elastic plate bending equation to the inferred flexural topography. However, the first zero crossing bending moments required are -2.5 x 10(exp 17) N for Artemis and -5.0 x 10(exp 16) N for Latona. Since these moments are similar in magnitude to those of subducting slabs on Earth, a rollback subduction mechanism was proposed to explain the flexure around the largest coronae, although a differential thermal subsidence model is sufficient to account for the topography around some coronae. The purpose is to investigate the effect of inplane force as a possible alternative to large applied moments in producing flexure at Artemis and Latona. The close correlation of gravity to topography on Venus implies the absence of a low viscosity zone and the strong coupling of the lithosphere to mantle convection. If coronae are the surface manifestations of mantle plumes, they may be the sites of active convective stress coupling. As the upwelling reaches the lithosphere, it spreads radially outward, inducing shear tractions on the base of the plate. In addition, the hot, expanding corona may load the surrounding plate horizonally. Both the basal shear stresses and radial loading can be treated as an equivalent compressive inplane force in the mechanical lithosphere, which contributes to the bending of the outlying plate. Using a model that relates inplane force to the measured gravity anomalies, a rough value of the inplane force at Artemis was calculated. Recent Pioneer Venus spherical harmonic gravity models indicate a geoid anomaly of about 75 m over Artemis, which corresponds to an estimated inplane force on the order of -1x10(exp 13) N/m. The gravity model is unable to resolve Latona, but an inplane force of similar dimensions is assumed. The maximum possible inplane force based on the expected rheology can be constrained by using the approximate 5 K/km thermal gradient inferred from the best fit 30 km elastic plate at Artemis and Latona. For a dry olivine flow law in the upper mantle, the compressional load limit of the 60 km thick mechanical lithosphere is -4 x 10(exp 13) N/m. This value is equivalent to a load of -8 x 10(exp 13) N/m on a 30 km thick elastic plate.

Brown, C. David↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven optimized control of the COVID-19 epidemics

Optimizing the impact on the economy of control strategies aiming at containing the spread of COVID-19 is a critical challenge. We use daily new case counts of COVID-19 patients reported by local health administrations from different Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) within the US to parametrize a model that well describes the propagation of the disease in each area. We then introduce a time-varying control input that represents the level of social distancing imposed on the population of a given area and solve an optimal control problem with the goal of minimizing the impact of social distancing on the economy in the presence of relevant constraints, such as a desired level of suppression for the epidemics at a terminal time. We find that with the exception of the initial time and of the final time, the optimal control input is well approximated by a constant, specific to each area, which contrasts with the implemented system of reopening ‘in phases’. For all the areas considered, this optimal level corresponds to stricter social distancing than the level estimated from data. Proper selection of the time period for application of the control action optimally is important: depending on the particular MSA this period should be either short or long or intermediate. We also consider the case that the transmissibility increases in time (due e.g. to increasingly colder weather), for which we find that the optimal control solution yields progressively stricter measures of social distancing. We finally compute the optimal control solution for a model modified to incorporate the effects of vaccinations on the population and we see that depending on a number of factors, social distancing measures could be optimally reduced during the period over which vaccines are administered to the population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗