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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,279 records · Page 71
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Influence of the irradiated pulmonary microenvironment on macrophage and T cell dynamics

The lung is sensitive to radiation, which increases the risk of normal tissue toxicity following radiation therapy. Adverse outcomes include pneumonitis and pulmonary fibrosis, which are thought to result from dysregulated intercellular communication within the pulmonary microenvironment. Macrophage accumulation in the lung following radiation exposure is implicated in these pathogenic outcomes. Here we investigate the role of the microenvironment in macrophage and T cell dynamics. Materials and methods C57Bl/6 mice received 6Gyx5 x-ray irradiation to the right lung. Macrophage and T cell dynamics were investigated in ipsilateral right lungs, contralateral left lungs and compared to those from non-irradiated control subjects at 4-26wk post exposure. Lungs were evaluated by flow cytometry, histology and proteomics. Results In uni-lung irradiated subjects, focal regions of macrophage accumulation were noted in both lungs by 8wk, however fibrotic lesions were observed only in ipsilateral lungs by 26wk. Both infiltrating and alveolar macrophages populations transiently expanded in both lungs, however a transitional CD11b+ alveolar macrophage population persisted only in ipsilateral lungs and expressed lower CD206. Concurrently, arginase-1+ macrophages were noted within areas of macrophage accumulation in ipsilateral but not contralateral lungs at 8 and 26wk post exposure, while CD206+ macrophages were absent from these accumulations. While CD8+ T cells were present in both lungs of irradiated subjects, T regulatory cells were only increased in ipsilateral lungs. Unbiased proteomics analysis of immune cells revealed a substantial number of differentially expressed proteins in ipsilateral lungs when compared to either contralateral or non-irradiated lungs, as well as between contralateral lungs from irradiated subjects and non-irradiated controls. Conclusions Pulmonary macrophage and T cell dynamics are impacted by the microenvironmental conditions that develop in the lung following radiation exposure, both locally and systemically. Our findings demonstrate that while macrophages and T cells infiltrate and expand in both lungs, they diverge phenotypically depending on their environment.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of gamma, electron beam, and X-ray irradiation on the plastic components of a universal bone cement mixer medical device

Due to market and regulatory pressures, many healthcare manufacturers are considering alternatives to cobalt-60 gamma radiation, including accelerator-based electron beam (E-beam) and X-ray radiation for product sterilization. In this work, the effects of irradiation on a representative medical product, comprised of eight distinct polymer materials, were directly compared for three radiation technologies – cobalt-60 gamma, E-beam, and X-ray – at four dose levels (15, 25, 50, and 70 kGy). The objective was to determine how radiation effects (deleterious or beneficial) are influenced by source and dose level, with the specific goal of determining whether E-beam radiation and/or X-ray radiation could be viable alternatives to gamma radiation for device sterilization. Here, the specific product considered is a single-use medical device for orthopedic surgery, the Stryker Instruments MixeVac III bone cement mixer, which is currently sterilized using gamma radiation from cobalt-60 sources. Following ASTM International standards and input from the manufacturer, we characterized the effects of the three radiation sources on product functionality as well as on the mechanical and optical properties of the constituent polymers. Results indicate that although measurable differences in properties between the standard gamma irradiated materials and the alternative E-beam and X-ray irradiated materials were observed, those differences were small. Statistically significant differences were noted in the case of yellowness index for polyvinyl chloride, high-density polyethylene, and polycarbonate, and in the case of tensile elongation at break for high impact polystyrene and polyvinyl chloride. In general, the results of this study support the viability of E-beam and X-ray radiation as alternative options to cobalt-60 gamma radiation for sterilization of Stryker single-use universal bone cement mixer medical devices.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gamma, electron beam and X-ray irradiation effects on polymers in an advanced bone cement mixer device

The medical device industry has been investigating ways to increase the use of alternatives to cobalt-60 gamma radiation and ethylene-oxide gas sterilization, such as electron beam (E-beam) and X-ray radiation, due to regulatory and market pressures. One impediment to switching to E-beam or X-ray technology for sterilization is the lack of data on the effects of these radiation sources on medical device polymers. To provide such data this work considers irradiation and testing of a common single-use medical bone cement mixing system, the Stryker Advanced Cement Mixer (ACM®), that is composed of seven polymer materials. The ACM® devices considered here were processed to sterilization-relevant doses (15, 25, 50, and 70 kGy) using three radiation technologies: gamma, E-beam, and X-ray. The system and its polymer components were tested for product functionality, as well as mechanical and visual properties to determine how exposure effects may be influenced by radiation technology and dose level. We found that although there were instances of statistically significant differences in effects between the gamma-irradiated products and those irradiated with E-beam and X-ray, those effects were negligible in terms of retained functionality of the product and retained mechanical properties of the polymer components. Overall, results of this study demonstrate that, for of the effects studied, E-beam and X-ray are viable alternatives to cobalt-60 gamma radiation for sterilization of the polymer-based device investigated.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A data engineering approach for sustainable chemical end-of-life management

The presence of chemicals causing significant adverse human health and environmental effects during end-of-life (EoL) stages is a challenge for implementing sustainable management efforts and transitioning towards a safer circular life cycle. Conducting chemical risk evaluation and exposure assessment of potential EoL scenarios can help understand the chemical EoL management chain for its safer utilization in a circular life-cycle environment. However, the first step is to track the chemical flows, estimate releases, and potential exposure pathways. Hence, this work proposes an EoL data engineering approach to perform chemical flow analysis and screening to support risk evaluation and exposure assessment for designing a safer circular life cycle of chemicals. This work uses publicly-available data to identify potential post-recycling scenarios (e.g., industrial processing/use operations), estimate inter-industry chemical transfers, and exposure pathways to chemicals of interest. Furthermore, a case study demonstration shows how the data engineering framework identifies, estimates, and tracks chemical flow transfers from EoL stage facilities (e.g., recycling and recovery) to upstream chemical life cycle stage facilities (e.g., manufacturing). Also, the proposed framework considers current regulatory constraints on closing the recycling loop operations and provides a range of values for the flow allocated to post-recycling uses associated with occupational exposure and fugitive air releases from EoL operations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhancement of risk informed validation framework for external hazard scenario

In recent years, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have developed methodologies to assess the vulnerabilities of nuclear plants against site specific extreme hazards. In many cases, advanced simulation tools are being considered to simulate multi-physics, multi-scale phenomena and to evaluate vulnerability of nuclear facilities. The credibility of advanced simulation tools is assessed based on a formal verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification procedure. One of the key limitations in validation is the lack of relevant experimental data at system-level. This limitation leads to a decrease in the confidence of system-level risk predictions. Therefore, a robust validation framework is needed to formalize the confidence in predictive capability of advanced simulation results. Additionally, this study enhances the existing risk informed validation methodology, originally proposed by Kwag et al. [1] and Bodda et al. [2], by developing additional attributes and a new set of validation indicies for a complete and wider applicability of the framework. In this manuscript, the methodology to identify the critical path that leads to the system-level failure is illustrated. The overall validation is checked for completeness and consistency by comparing the critical path for both the system-level simulation and experimental models. The applicability of the code for an intended application is represented in terms of various maturity levels and helps in the process of decision making.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Costs of mitigating the environmental impacts of hydropower projects in the United States

Developers are required to mitigate the environmental impacts of hydropower projects in the United States (U.S.) but there is very little accessible information on the associated costs. This work compiles and analyses a dataset of environmental impacts mitigation costs for 182 hydropower projects based on documents obtained from the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The analysis shows that environmental costs vary wildly across hydropower project classes and mitigation measures, even when normalized by plant capacity. Capital costs per kilowatt are generally higher for relicensed conventional hydropower plants, and lower for new and relicensed pumped storage hydropower plants, relative to other project classes. Smaller plants tend to spend a higher share of total project costs on mitigating environmental impacts than larger plants, and measures related to Aquatic Species, Project Operations, and Recreation have the highest capital cost per kilowatt. These findings mean that environmental costs could become a key decision variable for new hydropower developments in the U.S. due to the small scale of most of the remaining potential and the increasing stringency of environmental requirements. Therefore, technologies to reduce the environmental impacts and costs of hydropower would be important for future project developments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrogen technology for maritime applications: A review of challenges, opportunities, and lessons from the port authority of New York and New Jersey

The maritime industry faces increasing demand for energy security, operational efficiency, and environmental performance improvements. Hydrogen technology, considered a potential energy carrier, is being explored for port operations, including cargo-handling equipment, heavy-duty vehicles, and stationary power systems. This review evaluates the feasibility, challenges, and potential benefits of hydrogen integration within port infrastructure, using the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey as a representative case study. Drawing on case studies, technical reports, and policy analyses, this study examines the infrastructural, regulatory, and operational factors influencing large-scale deployment, emphasizing supply chain development, storage requirements, and refueling infrastructure. By situating hydrogen within broader maritime energy transition efforts, this review provides an evidence-based assessment of its role in port operations and energy diversification strategies. In conclusion, the findings outline key barriers to adoption and emphasize the need for coordinated efforts among stakeholders to determine hydrogen's role alongside other emerging energy technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Novel nucleocytoplasmic protein O -fucosylation by SPINDLY regulates diverse developmental processes in plants

Here, in metazoans, protein O-fucosylation of Ser/Thr residues was only found in secreted or cell surface proteins, and this post-translational modification is catalyzed by ER-localized protein O-fucosyltransferases (POFUTs) in the GT65 family. Recently, a novel nucleocytoplasmic POFUT, SPINDLY (SPY), was identified in the reference plant Arabidopsis thaliana to modify nuclear transcription regulators DELLAs, revealing a new regulatory mechanism for gene expression. The paralog of AtSPY, SECRET AGENT (SEC), is an O-link-N-acetylglucosamine (GlcNAc) transferase (OGT), which O-GlcNAcylates Ser/Thr residues of target proteins. Both AtSPY and AtSEC are tetratricopeptide repeat-domain-containing glycosyltransferases in the GT41 family. The discovery that AtSPY is a POFUT clarified decades of miss-classification of AtSPY as an OGT. SPY and SEC play pleiotropic roles in plant development, and the interactions between SPY and SEC are complex. SPY-like genes are conserved in diverse organisms, except in fungi and metazoans, suggesting that O-fucosylation is a common mechanism in modulating intracellular protein functions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lignin’s Indispensable role in orchestrating seed stone formation: Insights from jujuba, peach and pear with future prospective on pitless fruits

A hard endocarp (i.e., stone) inside fruit is a characteristic of drupe fruits such as jujube, peach, mango, etc. Hard stone significantly affects the quality and downstream processing of fruits. The complex aromatic polymer lignin deposition in the secondary cell wall determines stone hardness. Lignin comprises phenylpropanoid units formed by hydroxycinnamoyl alcohol, which includes coniferyl, sinapyl, and p-coumaroyl alcohols. Lignin biosynthesis pathway involves a series of complex enzymatic reactions initiated from phenylalanine ammonia lyase and ends up polymerizing lignin monomers by laccase and peroxidase enzymes. Phytohormones, particularly auxin, gibberellins, and Ca²⁺ signaling, further modulate endocarp lignification by regulating transcriptional networks and lignin biosynthetic genes, thereby fine-tuning secondary cell wall thickening and stone hardness in drupe fruits. Lignin biosynthesis is controlled by both structural genes and transcriptional regulators. The structural genes encoding lignin biosynthetic enzymes include LAC12–1, PAL2, C4H, C3H, CSE, CCoAOMT, F5H, CAD, and PRX1. In addition, several transcription factors regulating secondary cell wall and lignin deposition, such as MYB24, bZIP48, and bZIP33 play key regulatory roles. Conversely, delignification or suppression of stone formation is associated with transcription factors (Pistillata, MYB32, FUL, and REPLUMLESS) and post-transcriptional regulators, including miR397a, miR31-3p, and miR8-5p. Accurate alteration in the expression of these genes will result in the attainment of stoneless fruits for cheap and hazel-free downstream processing.

Fruit endocarp↗
DOE OSTI2022

Current and future federal and state sampling guidance for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances in environmental matrices

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a class of emerging contaminants composed of an estimated 5000 to 10,000 human-made, fluorinated, organic chemicals. Due to the complexity of PFAS, the need for multiple environmental matrix considerations and the absence of a promulgated federal standard for environmental sampling and analysis, U.S. states have begun developing health-based regulatory and/or guidance values for a limited number of PFAS in environmental matrices. As there is a growing body of science to inform PFAS sampling guidance standard development, it is important to understand which U.S. states are implementing sampling guidelines and how they plan to handle emerging PFAS. This critical review discusses the current and impending federal and state sampling guidelines for PFAS in environmental matrices, the data gaps surrounding PFAS sampling guidance in U.S. states, and the future impacts of impending guidance documents and regulations. Ten federal guidance documents are available for PFAS sampling guidance and analysis. The maximum number of PFAS covered in these guidance documents is 25 analytes spanning across 8 unique media. While the EPA has developed several different sampling and analytical guidelines for PFAS, there is no formal regulation of PFAS or requirements of states to enforce these guidelines. Consequently, only 31 states have informally adopted sampling guidelines, while the other 19 states have no guidance documentation in place for PFAS. The introduction of new PFAS sampling guidelines by the EPA, as well as updated analytical guidelines that target more PFAS or total organofluoride, is expected to continuously shift the landscape of federal and state guidance for PFAS sampling moving forward.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mutually beneficial outcomes for hydropower expansion and environmental protection at a basin scale

Reshaping the scale of planning for hydropower development, from reaches to basin-scales, has been recommended as a more effective way to ameliorate the environmental impacts of hydropower. One approach is identifying mutually exclusive areas where development is precluded for conservation purposes and areas of low conservation value that present fewer barriers to development. This strategy, however, is less adoptable in developed countries where hydropower is already widespread and large-scale construction of new dams is unlikely. To broaden the adoption of basin-scale planning, alternative approaches and planning tools are needed for identifying mutually beneficial opportunities for simultaneous increases in hydropower capacity while improving environmental conditions. In this study, we present the Basin Scale Opportunity Assessment as a methodology to improve environmental conditions through either direct (on-site) or indirect (off-site) mitigation. We assess whether direct or indirect mitigation activities lead to optimal results in terms of added hydropower, environmental improvement, and monetary cost at a basin scale. We present two case studies for the Connecticut River and Roanoke River Basins, USA. Significant opportunities for expanding hydropower generating capacity are numerous in both basins. Results suggest that total hydropower capacity could be increased 4 to 7 % in the Roanoke and Connecticut Basins, respectively, without new dam construction and with net improvements in environmental conditions. We found that environmentally and economically optimal win-win strategies for increasing hydropower capacity and improving environmental conditions included improving environmental conditions in rivers downstream of existing dams. Off-site mitigation opportunities, such as dam removal and wetland mitigation, were identified as optimum solutions for achieving net environmental improvements only when they were associated with new hydropower construction. Our results demonstrate that opportunities to increase hydropower capacity and improve environmental conditions are expanded by viewing cumulative benefits at basin scales; however, increasing regulatory flexibility may be required to realize these opportunities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Animal displacement from marine energy development: Mechanisms and consequences

For marine wave and tidal energy to successfully contribute to global renewable energy goals and climate change mitigation, marine energy projects need to expand beyond small deployments to large-scale arrays. However, with large-scale projects come potential environmental effects not observed at the scales of single devices and small arrays. One of these effects is the risk of displacing marine animals from their preferred habitats or their migration routes, which may increase with the size of arrays and location. Many marine animals may be susceptible to some level of displacement once large marine energy arrays are increasingly integrated into the seascape, including large migratory animals, non-migratory pelagic animals with large home ranges, and benthic and demersal mobile organisms with more limited ranges, among many others. Yet, research around the mechanisms and effects of displacement have been hindered by the lack of clarity within the international marine energy community regarding the definition of displacement, how it occurs, its consequences, species of concern, and methods to investigate the outcomes. This review paper leveraged lessons learned from other industries, such as offshore development, to establish a definition of displacement in the marine energy context, explore which functional groups of marine animals may be affected and in what way, and identify pathways for investigating displacement through modeling and monitoring. In the marine energy context, we defined displacement as the outcome of one of three mechanisms (i.e., attraction, avoidance, and exclusion) triggered by an animal's response to one or more stressors acting as a disturbance, with various consequences at the individual through population levels. The knowledge gaps highlighted in this study will help the regulatory and scientific communities prepare for mitigating, observing, measuring, and characterizing displacement of various animals around marine energy arrays in order to prevent irreversible consequences.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrated techno-economic framework for nuclear hydrogen production: assessing the role of high temperature steam electrolysis and safety considerations

This manuscript presents a comprehensive techno-economic assessment of nuclear integrated hydrogen production through high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Given the significant role of hydrogen as an energy carrier and chemical feedstock, the research evaluates the feasibility of co-locating HTSE facilities with existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) to enhance hydrogen production efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Here, the study highlights the advantages of HTSE over traditional low-temperature electrolysis, particularly in leveraging thermal and electrical energy from NPPs. A novel framework for hydrogen deployment is introduced, integrating hydrogen market analysis, techno-economic evaluation (TEA), and safety assessments. The findings underscore the economic viability of hydrogen production in light of current market conditions, including fluctuating natural gas prices and the impact of production tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. A case study in the Gulf Coast region demonstrates the potential for strategic hydrogen production to meet growing industrial demand while ensuring safety and regulatory compliance. Overall, this research contributes to the advancement of nuclear integrated hydrogen production as a sustainable energy solution.

08 - HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Technology pathways for energy- and water-efficient controlled environment agriculture: A review of technologies, implementation pathways, and regional use cases

Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA) offers high-yield, climate-resilient food production, but high energy and resource demands challenge its sustainability. This paper synthesizes technologies that can improve outcomes across six categories—energy, CO 2 utilization, building envelope, hardware, water, and process—plus colocation strategies. We evaluate 80 technologies and define ten implementation pathways bundling complementary technologies to reduce energy use, optimize water consumption, and minimize emissions. Regional application is demonstrated through five U.S. case studies spanning different climates. A logic framework guides pathway selection for case studies based on climate, infrastructure, and regulatory context, informing context-sensitive technology deployment. Results show energy intensity reductions of 3–55 %, ranging from energy management programs to comprehensive lighting retrofits; water savings of 20–40 % through closed-loop recirculation; and emissions reductions of 3–100 %, with strategic energy management achieving 3–5 % and renewable electricity paired with electrified heating achieving up to 100 %. Text mining revealed that energy, hardware, and process technologies account for 91 % of literature coverage. Water, building envelope, and CO 2 utilization remain underexplored, indicating priorities for future research. This integrative approach to technology assessment supports growers, developers, and policymakers in aligning CEA system design with local conditions, improving resource efficiency and addressing gaps in cross-domain technology coverage.

Controlled environment agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2023

Crystal structure of Escherichia coli thiamine pyrophosphate-sensing riboswitch in the apo state

The thiamine pyrophosphate (TPP)-sensing riboswitch is one of the earliest discovered and most widespread riboswitches. Numerous structural studies have been reported for this riboswitch bound with various ligands. However, the ligand-free (apo) structure remains unknown. Here, we report a 3.1 Å resolution crystal structure of Escherichia coli TPP riboswitch in the apo state, which exhibits an extended, Y-shaped conformation further supported by small-angle X-ray scattering data and driven molecular dynamics simulations. The loss of ligand interactions results in helical uncoiling of P5 and disruption of the key tertiary interaction between the sensory domains. Opening of the aptamer propagates to the gene-regulatory P1 helix and generates the key conformational flexibility needed for the switching behavior. Much of the ligand-binding site at the three-way junction is unaltered, thereby maintaining a partially preformed pocket. Together, these results paint a dynamic picture of the ligand-induced conformational changes in TPP riboswitches that confer conditional gene regulation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cryo-electron microscopy structure of a zinc uptake ABC transporter

Zn2+ is an essential micronutrient required for many biological processes. Microorganisms employ high-affinity Zn2+ ABC transporters to take up zinc from the environment when it is scarce, yet the mechanism of zinc uptake and its regulation remain poorly understood. Here, we report the cryo-electron microscopy structure of the Zn2+ ABC transporter complex ZnuB-ZnuC from Escherichia coli. It contains two ZnuB transport and two ZnuC regulatory subunits. The ZnuB homodimer is in an outward-facing, closed conformation with a large hydrophilic cavity at the dimer interface. Each ZnuC subunit contains an N-terminal nucleotide-binding domain and a C-terminal zinc-sensing domain (ZSD). Zn2+ binding to the ZSD locks the transporter in a closed state, whereas under low-Zn2+ conditions, the disorder of ZSD permits ATP-driven zinc uptake. Zn2+ ABC transporters are ubiquitously utilized by pathogenic bacteria to compete with hosts for Zn2+. These findings reveal potential therapeutic targets for disrupting Zn2+ homeostasis in antibiotic-resistant pathogens.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synthesis and characterization of isotopically barcoded nickel, molybdenum, and tungsten taggants for intentional nuclear forensics

Intentional nuclear forensics is a concept wherein the deliberate addition of benign and persistent material signatures to nuclear material can be used to reduce the time between the discovery of material outside of regulatory control and determination of its original provenance. One concept within intentional nuclear forensics involves the use of perturbed stable isotopes to generate unique isotope ratio “barcodes” to encode information (e.g., production batch, location, etc.) and track material throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. Synthesis of taggant species of nickel (Ni), molybdenum (Mo), and tungsten (W) was undertaken via a double-spike mechanism, wherein two highly enriched isotopes of interest per elemental taggant were mixed to form an enriched “double-spike” which was subsequently isotopically diluted with bulk material having a natural isotopic composition. Two taggant species perturbing isotopic ratios, alpha (α) and beta (β), for each of Ni, Mo, and W were synthesized. Independent measurements of double spikes and alpha and beta taggant species agreed within uncertainty and are clearly resolvable from natural compositions. High-precision analyses were independently performed by MC-ICP-MS at two U.S. National Laboratories, with consensus values and uncertainties calculated for all samples. Observed isotopic perturbations in the final taggant species measured on the order of hundreds to thousands of permille (‰) with respect to natural for isotope ratios of interest (e.g., 60 Ni/ 58 Ni, 100 Mo/ 98 Mo, 186 W/ 183 W). Discrepancies between modeled and measured isotopic compositions were observed and are largely attributed to imprecise vendor assay values for starting materials. Using measured starting material compositions as inputs for the mixing model improved the level of agreement between predicted and measured α and β taggant isotope ratios. Overall, characterization of all taggant species demonstrates that this “barcode” concept could have viability for use in nuclear forensics. Finally, it is expected that for any two-isotope mixing array dozens of isotopic barcodes could be encoded into a material system and subsequently resolved utilizing modern mass spectrometric methods.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2020

What does the future hold for utility electricity efficiency programs?

Here, this study develops projections of future spending and savings from electricity efficiency programs funded by electric utility customers in the United States through 2030 based on three scenarios. Our analysis relies on detailed bottom-up modeling of current state energy efficiency policies, demand-side management and integrated resource plans, and regulatory decisions. The three scenarios represent a range of potential outcomes given the policy environment at the time of the study and uncertainties in the broader economic and state policy environment in each state. We project spending to increase to $8.6 billion in 2030 in the medium scenario, about a 45 percent increase relative to 2016 spending. In the high case, annual spending increases to $11.1 billion in 2030 and remains relatively flat in the low case ($6.8 billion in 2030). Our analysis suggests that electricity efficiency programs funded by utility customers will continue to impact load growth significantly at least through 2030, as savings as a percent of retail sales are forecast at 0.7 percent in the medium scenario and 0.98 percent in the high scenario.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗