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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,279 records · Page 71
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Coexistence and Interaction of Spinons and Magnons in an Antiferromagnet with Alternating Antiferromagnetic and Ferromagnetic Quantum Spin Chains

In conventional quasi-one-dimensional antiferromagnets with quantum spins, magnetic excitations are carried by either magnons or spinons in different energy regimes: they do not coexist independently, nor could they interact with each other. In this Letter, by combining inelastic neutron scattering, quantum Monte Carlo simulations and Random Phase Approximation calculations, we report the discovery and discuss the physics of the coexistence of magnons and spinons and their interactions in Botallackite-Cu 2 (OH) 3 Br. This is a unique quantum antiferromagnet consisting of alternating ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic Spin-1/2 chains with weak interchain couplings. Furthermore, our study presents a new paradigm where one can study the interaction between two different types of magnetic quasiparticles: magnons and spinons.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning reveals strong grid-scale dependence in the satellite N d –LWP relationship

The relationship between cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) and liquid water path (LWP) is highly uncertain yet crucial for determining the impact of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) on Earth's radiation budget. The N d -LWP relationship is examined using a machine learning (ML) random forest model applied to five years of satellite data at grid resolutions ranging from 10° to 0.05° in 12 distinct regions. In the subtropics, the shape of the N d -LWP relationship switches from an inverted-V at 1° grid-resolution to an “M” shape at 0.1° resolution with decreased $\frac{\textrm{dln⁡LWP}}{\textrm{dln⁡}N_d}$ sensitivity. Tropical and midlatitude regions generally show a more positive sensitivity. Cloud sampling and filtering also influence this slope, wherein the exclusion of thin clouds, as commonly performed to reduce retrieval uncertainty, leads to strongly negative sensitivity across all regions. Precipitation is primarily responsible for driving the strength of the sensitivity, with strong positive slopes in raining clouds and negative and/or neutral responses found in non-raining clouds. A new method to compute radiative forcing from the ML model shows a robust Twomey radiative forcing across all regions and grid resolutions. However, LWP and cloud fraction adjustments to the radiative forcing, which are ∼50 % or smaller than the Twomey effect, decrease to negligible values with higher spatial resolution data. As Earth system models move toward higher spatial resolutions in the future, evaluating the LWP and CF adjustment contributions to the radiative forcing budget at these finer resolutions will be essential for evaluation and model development.

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influence of Time and Frequency Domain Wave Forcing on the Power Estimation of a Wave Energy Converter Array

Industry-specific tools for analyzing and optimizing the design of wave energy converters (WECs) and associated power systems are essential to advancing marine renewable energy. This study aims to quantify the influence of phase information on the device power output of a virtual WEC array. We run the phase-resolving wave model FUNWAVE-TVD (Total Variation Diminishing) to generate directional waves at the PacWave South site offshore from Newport, Oregon, where future WECs are expected to be installed for testing. The two broad cases presented correspond to mean wave climates during warm months (March–August) and cold months (September–February). FUNWAVE-TVD time series of sea-surface elevation are then used in WEC-Sim, a time domain numerical model, to simulate the hydrodynamic response of each device in the array and estimate their power output. For comparison, WEC-Sim is also run with wave energy spectra calculated from the FUNWAVE-TVD simulations, which do not retain phase information, and with wave spectra computed using the phase-averaged model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN). The use of spectral data in WEC-Sim requires a conversion from frequency to time domain by means of random superposition of wave components, which are not necessarily consistent because of the linear assumption implicit in this method. Thus, power response is characterized by multiple realizations of the wave climates.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

High Entropy Protected Sharp Magnetic Transitions in Highly Disordered Spinel Ferrites

How disorder affects magnetic ordering is always an intriguing question, and it becomes even more interesting in the recently rising high entropy oxides due to the extremely high disorder density. However, due to the lack of high-quality single crystal samples, the strong compositional disorder effect on magnetic transition has not been deeply investigated. In this work, we have successfully synthesized high-quality single crystalline high entropy spinel ferrites (Mg 0.2 Mn 0.2 Fe 0.2 Co 0.2 Ni 0.2 ) x Fe 3-x O 4 . Our findings from high-temperature magnetization and neutron diffraction experiments showed ferrimagnetic transitions at 748, 694, and 674 K for x values of 1, 1.5, and 1.8, respectively. Notably, the magnetic transition almost showed no broadening for x values of 1 and 1.5, compared to Fe 3 O 4 . Extended X-ray absorption fine structure measurements provided insights into the elemental distribution among the octahedral and tetrahedral sites. The random distribution of elements across these sites reduced the formation of local clusters and short-range orders, enhancing sample homogeneity and preserving the sharpness of the magnetic transition, despite bond length variation. Here, our study not only marks the first successful synthesis of an HEO bulk single crystal exhibiting long-range magnetic order but also sheds light on the interaction between high configurational entropy and magnetic orderings. This opens new avenues for future research and applications of magnetic high entropy oxides.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Timely Reporting of Heavy Hitters Using External Memory

Given an input stream S of size N, a Φ-heavy hitter is an item that occurs at least ΦN times in S. The problem of finding heavy-hitters is extensively studied in the database literature. In this work, we study a real-time heavy-hitters variant in which an element must be reported shortly after we see its T = Φ N-th occurrence (and hence it becomes a heavy hitter). We call this the Timely Event Detection (TED) Problem. The TED problem models the needs of many real-world monitoring systems, which demand accurate (i.e., no false negatives) and timely reporting of all events from large, high-speed streams with a low reporting threshold (high sensitivity). Like the classic heavy-hitters problem, solving the TED problem without false-positives requires large space (Ω (N) words). Thus in-RAM heavy-hitters algorithms typically sacrifice accuracy (i.e., allow false positives), sensitivity, or timeliness (i.e., use multiple passes). We show how to adapt heavy-hitters algorithms to external memory to solve the TED problem on large high-speed streams while guaranteeing accuracy, sensitivity, and timeliness. Our data structures are limited only by I/O-bandwidth (not latency) and support a tunable tradeoff between reporting delay and I/O overhead. With a small bounded reporting delay, our algorithms incur only a logarithmic I/O overhead. We implement and validate our data structures empirically using the Firehose streaming benchmark. Multi-threaded versions of our structures can scale to process 11M observations per second before becoming CPU bound. In comparison, a naive adaptation of the standard heavy-hitters algorithm to external memory would be limited by the storage device’s random I/O throughput, i.e., ≈100K observations per second.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic parametric skeletal dosimetry model for humans: General approach and application to active marrow exposure from bone-seeking beta-particle emitters

The objective of this study is to develop a skeleton model for assessing active marrow dose from bone-seeking beta-emitting radionuclides. This article explains the modeling methodology which accounts for individual variability of the macro- and microstructure of bone tissue. Bone sites with active hematopoiesis are assessed by dividing them into small segments described by simple geometric shapes. Spongiosa, which fills the segments, is modeled as an isotropic three-dimensional grid (framework) of rod-like trabeculae that “run through” the bone marrow. Randomized multiple framework deformations are simulated by changing the positions of the grid nodes and the thickness of the rods. Model grid parameters are selected in accordance with the parameters of spongiosa microstructures taken from the published papers. Stochastic modeling of radiation transport in heterogeneous media simulating the distribution of bone tissue and marrow in each of the segments is performed by Monte Carlo methods. Model output for the human femur at different ages is provided as an example. The uncertainty of dosimetric characteristics associated with individual variability of bone structure was evaluated. An advantage of this methodology for the calculation of doses absorbed in the marrow from bone-seeking radionuclides is that it does not require additional studies of autopsy material. The biokinetic model results will be used in the future to calculate individual doses to members of a cohort exposed to 89,90 Sr from liquid radioactive waste discharged to the Techa River by the Mayak Production Association in 1949–1956. Further study of these unique cohorts provides an opportunity to gain more in-depth knowledge about the effects of chronic radiation on the hematopoietic system. In addition, the proposed model can be used to assess the doses to active marrow under any other scenarios of 90 Sr and 89 Sr intake to humans.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Influence of Annealing and Composition on the Crystal Structure of Mixed-Halide, Ruddlesden–Popper Perovskites

Mixed-halide two-dimensional (2D) hybrid organic–inorganic perovskites offer an important opportunity to control the band gap for applications in optoelectronic devices. In this study, we focus on phenethylammonium lead halide [(PEA) 2 Pb(I 1– x Br x ) 4 ] films, the pure iodide form of which is one of the most widely studied optically active 2D perovskite systems. Resonant infrared, matrix-assisted pulsed laser evaporation is used to grow films to explore the effects of post-growth annealing and mixed-halide composition. The composition, crystal structure, and optical properties are studied for as-grown and annealed films of (PEA) 2 Pb(I 1– x Br x ) 4 for x = 0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 1. First-principles calculations are used in conjunction with the experimental data to explain the mixed-halide behavior that does not trend monotonically with the bromide content. Important results of this work are as follows: (i) X-ray diffraction reveals evidence for halide phase separation around x = 0.25, consistent with first-principles calculations, whereas no phase separation is observed for x = 0.5 and above and (ii) a unique photoluminescence (PL) peak splitting is observed for x = 0.75, a composition for which no compositional phase separation is observed. The PL splitting is tentatively explained by the coexistence of two distinct types of halide short-range ordering at x = 0.75. Overall, this study demonstrates that mixed-halide n = 1 Ruddlesden–Popper perovskites are not simple random alloys but that instead, they display distinct sites and ordering preferences of the different halide anions. These preferences are critical to understand and rationally tune the properties of the materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Time-Resolved Line Shapes of Single Quantum Emitters via Machine Learned Photon Correlations

Solid-state single-photon emitters (SPEs) are quantum light sources that combine atomlike optical properties with solid-state integration and fabrication capabilities. SPEs are hindered by spectral diffusion, where the emitter’s surrounding environment induces random energy fluctuations. Timescales of spectral diffusion span nanoseconds to minutes and require probing single emitters to remove ensemble averaging. Photon correlation Fourier spectroscopy (PCFS) can be used to measure time-resolved single emitter line shapes, but is hindered by poor signal-to-noise ratio in the measured correlation functions at early times due to low photon counts. Here, we develop a framework to simulate PCFS correlation functions directly from diffusing spectra that match well with experimental data for single colloidal quantum dots. We use these simulated datasets to train a deep ensemble autoencoder machine learning model that outputs accurate, noiseless, and probabilistic reconstructions of the noisy correlations. Using this model, we obtain reconstructed time-resolved single dot emission line shapes at timescales as low as 10 ns, which are otherwise completely obscured by noise. This enables PCFS to extract optical coherence times on the same timescales as Hong-Ou-Mandel two-photon interference, but with the advantage of providing spectral information in addition to estimates of photon indistinguishability. Further, our machine learning approach is broadly applicable to different photon correlation spectroscopy techniques and SPE systems, offering an enhanced tool for probing single emitter line shapes on previously inaccessible timescales.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermal conductivity modeling of monodispersed microspheres using discrete element method

Particle beds are widely used in various systems and processes, such as particle heat exchangers, granular flow reactors, and additive manufacturing. Accurate modeling of the thermal conductivity of particle beds and understanding of their heat transfer mechanisms are important. However, previous models were based on simple cubic packing of particles, which could not accurately represent the actual heat transfer processes under certain conditions. Here, we examine the effect of the packing structure on the thermal conductivity of particle beds. We use monodispersed silica microspheres with average particle sizes ranging from 23 to 330 μm as a model material. We employ a transient hot-wire technique to measure the thermal conductivity of the particle beds with packing density of 43%–57% within a temperature range of room temperature to 500 °C and under N2 gaseous pressures of 20–760 Torr. We then use a discrete element method (DEM) to obtain the realistic packing structure of the particles, which is then fed into a finite-element model (FEM) to calculate the thermal conductivity, with the consideration of solid conduction, gas conduction, and radiation heat transfer. Our results show that the thermal conductivity model based on the more realistic random packing structure derived from the DEM shows better agreement with the experimental data compared to that based on the simple cubic-packing structure. The combined DEM and FEM methodology can serve as a useful tool to predict the effective thermal conductivity of particle beds and to quantify different heat transfer mechanisms under various conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Voronoi Meshing to Accurately Capture Geological Structure in Subsurface Simulations

Mesh generation lies at the interface of geological modeling and reservoir simulation. Highly skewed or very small grid cells may be necessary to accurately capture the geometry of geological features, but the resulting poorly scaled or small grid cells can have a substantial negative impact on simulator accuracy and speed. One way to minimize numerical errors caused by gridding complex structures is to simulate on high-quality Voronoi meshes, which reduce grid orientation effects in fluid flow. This work presents a complete methodology to create Voronoi simulation grids, model fluid flow in complex geological systems, and visualize the results. A recently developed Voronoi meshing method that can automatically generate provably good unstructured meshes that conform to input surfaces creating closed volumes is used. Initially an analytical benchmark simulation is presented to validate the quality of the meshes and simulation results and demonstrate the superiority of simulation results using Voronoi meshes over flexed-hexahedral meshes on a domain with internal features. Next, meshes are created for test structures representing four of the most common geological features in the subsurface: layering, pinch-out, an interior lens that tapers to zero thickness on all sides and a fault with offset. Two benchmark flow simulations are run for each test structure. Finally, a realistic geological example for CO 2 injection into an anticline is simulated. Three realizations of the Voronoi mesh at the same resolution are generated for the simulations. Each mesh is highly refined near the injection wells and coarse in areas of less interest. These three meshes are used to model the CO 2 plume in the subsurface as it migrates to the top of the structure and then fills downward. Simulations on the meshes with randomly generated elements inside the input volumes each give slightly different fingering patterns for the viscous-unstable buoyant gas flow. The results presented in this work show a promising step towards utilizing fully automated Voronoi meshing for subsurface flow simulations in complex geology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Informing Plant Asset Reliability and Availability Through AI-Driven Analysis of Operator Logs

The availability and reliability of nuclear power plant (NPP) structures, systems, and components (SSCs) are critical parameters for NPP safety. Tracking these parameters is necessary but costly and labor-intensive, requiring the collection and evaluation of SSC event data such as shutdowns, startups, and failures. To show how these events are needed for the parameters an example is given: one measure of reliability is based on the number of equipment failure events and the number of run hours (i.e., the time from a startup event to a shutdown event). Here, this work investigates using artificial intelligence (AI) to mine NPP operator log entry texts for SSC event data. Four AI approaches were explored for identifying these events, including natural language processing (NLP) methods, generative AI, generative AI combined with NLP, and topic modeling. A key challenge addressed with all four approaches is the brevity of operator log entries. Among these four a neural network–based NLP method was shown to be the most promising for this application, achieving F1 scores of 86.0% for shutdowns, 92.2% for startups, and 80.4% for failures on a subject-matter-expert-curated dataset from NPP operator logs, compared to a baseline of 66.6% for a random classifier. This shows that NLP methods can perform better than generative AI. Additionally, the NLP methods combined with generative AI were shown to perform better than generative AI alone. Generative AI was most successful at providing the background information for the NLP methods to use. This work demonstrates the potential to use AI to automate parameter collection from NPP operator log entries and other records.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transmission of waves through a pinned elastic medium

We investigate the scattering of elastic waves off a disordered region described by a one-dimensional random-phase sine-Gordon model. The collective pinning results in an effective static disorder potential with universal and non-Gaussian correlations, acting on propagating waves. We find signatures of the correlations in the wave transmission in a wide frequency range, which covers both the weak and strong localization regimes. Our theory elucidates the dynamics of collectively-pinned phases occurring in any natural or synthetic elastic medium. The latter one is exemplified by a one-dimensional array of Josephson junctions, for which we specify our results. Here, the obtained results provide benchmarks for the array-enabled quantum simulations addressing the dynamics in broader and yet-unexplored domains of individual pinning and quantum Bose glass.

1-dimensional systems↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrating Maximum Entropy Production Theory and Machine Learning to Improve Global Evapotranspiration Modeling

Accurate estimation of terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) is vital for understanding global water and energy cycles. However, current global ET estimations are not well constrained. This study introduces an integrated framework combining the Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) theory with Random Forest (RF) model to improve global ET estimation. Specifically, in contrast to direct ET estimation by the RF model, the integrated framework (MEP‐RF) trains to predict error of MEP‐simulated ET. MEP‐RF outperforms RF in spatiotemporal extrapolation. Attribution analysis with in situ observations reveals that the inputs of MEP are the most critical variables for the ET process, including net radiation, vegetated area, soil moisture, and surface temperature. We further drive MEP‐RF with global reanalysis and satellite data sets of these four inputs, yielding a global mean terrestrial ET of 548 mm/year, with 77% attributed to transpiration. The global ET increased at a rate of 0.85 mm/year per year during 2003–2021, primarily due to vegetation greening rather than rising temperature, while decreasing soil moisture led to decreasing regional ET. The integrated framework provides a novel approach for the estimation of global ET without the need for hard‐to‐obtain and thus uncertain inputs, such as wind speed, surface roughness, aerodynamic and canopy stomatal resistance. Therefore, MEP‐RF offers an independent method on existing global ET products. It represents a promising physically based approach that can be incorporated into Earth System Models to enhance water and energy cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resonant and random excitations on the proton beam in the Large Hadron Collider for active halo control with pulsed hollow electron lenses

We present the results of numerical simulations and experimental studies about the effects of resonant and random excitations on proton losses, emittances, and beam distributions in the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). In addition to shedding light on complex nonlinear effects, these studies are applied to the design of hollow electron lenses (HEL) for active beam halo control. In the High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC), a considerable amount of energy will be stored in the beam tails. To control and clean the beam halo, the installation of two hollow electron lenses, one per beam, is being considered. In standard electron-lens operation, a proton bunch sees the same electron current at every revolution. Pulsed electron beam operation (i.e., different currents for different turns) is also considered, because it can widen the range of achievable halo removal rates. For an axially symmetric electron beam, only protons in the halo are excited. If a residual field is present at the location of the beam core, these particles are exposed to time-dependent transverse kicks and to noise. We discuss the numerical simulations and the experiments conducted in 2016 and 2017 at injection energy in the LHC. The excitation patterns were generated by the transverse feedback and damping system, which acted as a flexible source of dipole kicks. Proton beam losses, emittances, and transverse distributions were recorded as a function of excitation patterns and strengths. The resonant excitations induced rich dynamical effects and nontrivial changes of the beam distributions, which, to our knowledge, have not previously been observed and studied in this detail. We conclude with a discussion of the tolerable and achievable residual fields and proposals for further studies.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of a Distributed Element Roughness Model to Additively Manufactured Internal Cooling Channels

Abstract Design for cooling effectiveness in turbine blades relies on accurate models for dynamic losses and heat transfer of internal cooling passages. Metal additive manufacturing (AM) has expanded the design space for these configurations, but can give rise to large-scale roughness features. The range of roughness length scales in these systems makes morphology resolved computational fluid dynamics (CFD) impractical. However, volumetric roughness models can be leveraged, as they have computational costs orders of magnitude lower. In this work, a discrete element roughness model (DERM), based on the double-averaged Navier–Stokes equations, is presented and applied to additively manufactured rough channels, representative of gas turbine blade cooling passages. Unique to this formulation of DERM is a generalized sheltering-based treatment of drag, a two-layer model for spatially averaged Reynolds stresses, and explicit treatment of dispersion. Six different AM rough surface channel configurations are studied, with roughness trough to peak sizes ranging from 15% to 60% nominal channel passage half-width, and the roughness Reynolds number ranges from Rek = 60 to 300. DERM predictions for spatially and temporally averaged mean flow quantities are compared to previously reported direct numerical simulation results. Good agreement in the mean velocity profiles, stress balances, and drag partitions are observed. While DERM models are typically calibrated to specific deterministic roughness morphologies at comparatively small roughness Reynolds numbers, the present more generalized DERM formulation has wider applicability. Here, it is demonstrated that the model can accommodate random roughness of large scale, typical of AM.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning modeling and model predictive control of a closed-circuit reverse osmosis system

Closed-circuit reverse osmosis (CCRO) offers a flexible and energy-efficient alternative to conventional reverse osmosis by operating in a semi-batch mode that recycles brine, enabling higher recovery rates and reduced specific energy consumption (SEC). However, developing accurate, system-level dynamic models for CCRO remains challenging due to its nonlinear, multi-phase operation and sensitivity to variable feed water conditions. Traditional modeling approaches, such as NARMAX (nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs), often struggle to generalize across varying inlet feed concentrations, necessitating frequent parameter re-estimation and limiting their utility for real-time control applications. To address these limitations, we developed a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model trained on an extensive experimental data set from a CCRO pilot plant. The model accepts three inputs, feed flow rate, recirculation flow rate, and initial feed conductivity, and predicts three key outputs: reject conductivity, feed pump power draw, and recirculation pump power draw. We validated the LSTM model against experimental data, demonstrating its ability to distinguish between different feed conductivities and adapt to variable flow rates. Subsequently, we incorporated the LSTM model within a nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) scheme and conducted closed-loop simulations to optimize the integrated SEC (iSEC). In conclusion, the results project up to a 6% reduction in iSEC by using MPC to optimize performance over the entire experiment duration, without requiring any random excitation for data collection or parameter re-estimation.

Desalination↗
DOE OSTI2020

One Structure, Two Elements—LuGe 2 Superconductor vs Ordinary Metallic Conductor LuSn 2 . A Case Study on How Site-Selective Germanium for Tin Atom Substitution Leads to Modulating of the Charge Distribution

The substitution of chemically similar elements in a given crystal structure is an effective way to enhance physical properties, but the understanding on such improvements is usually impeded because the substitutions are random, and the roles of the different atoms cannot be distinguished by crystallographic symmetry. Herein, we provide a detailed crystallographic analysis and property measurements for the continuous solid solutions LuGe x Sn 2–x (0 < x < 2). The results show that there is no apparent change of the global symmetry, with the end-members LuGe 2 and LuSn 2 , as well as the intermediate LuGe x Sn 2–x compositions adopting the ZrSi 2 type structure (space group Cmcm, Pearson index oC12). Yet, the refinements of the crystal structures from single-crystal X-ray diffraction data show that Ge–Sn atom substitutions are not random, but occur preferentially at the zig-zag chain. The patterned distribution of two group 14 elements leads to a significant variation in chemical bonding and charge ordering within the other structural fragment, the 2D square nets, thereby resulting in tuned electron transport. The enhancement is greater than the typical Bloch-Gruneisen model, and more akin to the parallel-resistor model. Magnetization measurements on single crystals show bulk superconductivity in all LuGe x Sn 2–x samples with shielding fractions as high as 90%. Specific heat data confirm the effect to originate from residual metallic tin in the material, indicating that Sn atom substitutions in the 2D square nets cause disruptions of the hypervalent bonding and local anisotropy, which ultimately leads to vanishing of the superconducting state in the end-member LuGe 2 . This work sheds light on how the complexity in chemical interactions by two different carbon congeners leads to changes in the physical properties and how they can be correlated with the induced charge distribution. Furthermore, these studies also provide a general approach to modulation of charge density, and thus, of emerging physical properties in other classes of intermetallic systems based on the main-group elements of groups 13 to 15.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Clinically applicable 53-Gene prognostic assay predicts chemotherapy benefit in gastric cancer: A multicenter study

BACKGROUND:We previously established a 53-gene prognostic signature for overall survival (OS) of gastric cancer patients. This retrospective multi-center study aimed to develop a clinically applicable gene expression detection assay and to investigate the prognostic value of this signature. METHODS:A TCGA gastric adenocarcinoma cohort (TCGA-STAD) was used for comparing 53-gene signature with other gene signatures. A high-throughput mRNA hybridization gene expression assay was developed to quantify the expression of 53-genes in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues of 540 patients enrolled from three hospitals. 180 patents were randomly selected from two hospitals to build a prognostic prediction model based on the 53-gene signature using leave-p-out (one-third out) cross-validation method together with Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analysis, and the model was assessed on three validation cohorts. FINDINGS:In the evaluation phase, studies based on TCGA-STAD showed that the 53-gene signature was significantly superior to other three prognostic signatures and was independent of TCGA molecular subtypes and clinical factors. For clinical validation and utility, the prognostic scores were generated using the newly developed assay, which was reliable and sensitive, in 100 sampling training sets and were significantly associated with OS in 100 sampling validation sets. The scores were significantly associated with OS in three independent and combined validation cohorts, and in patients with stages II and III/IV. The multivariate Cox regression demonstrated that the prognostic power of the score was independent of clinical factors, consistent with those findings in the TCGA dataset. Finally, patients with good prognostic scores exhibited significantly a better 5-year OS rate from adjuvant FOLFOX chemotherapy after surgery than from other chemotherapies. INTERPRETATION:The 53-gene prognostic score system is clinically applicable for predicting the OS of patients independent of clinical factors in gastric cancers, which could also be a promising predictive biomarker for FOLFOX regimen. FUNDING:Chinese National Science and Technology, National Natural Science Foundation and Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗