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At least 1,279 records · Page 71

The Impact of the Atlantic Cold Tongue on West African Monsoon Onset in Regional Model Simulations for 1998-2002

The Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) develops during spring and early summer near the Equator in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea. The hypothesis that the ACT accelerates the timing of West African monsoon (WAM) onset is tested by comparing two regional climate model (RM3) simulation ensembles. Observed sea surface temperatures (SST) that include the ACT are used to force a control ensemble. An idealized, warm SST perturbation is designed to represent lower boundary forcing without the ACT for the experiment ensemble. Summer simulations forced by observed SST and reanalysis boundary conditions for each of five consecutive years are compared to five parallel runs forced by SST with the warm perturbation. The article summarizes the sequence of events leading to the onset of the WAM in the Sahel region. The representation of WAM onset in RM3 simulations is examined and compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and reanalysis data. The study evaluates the sensitivity of WAM onset indicators to the presence of the ACT by analysing the differences between the two simulation ensembles. Results show that the timing of major rainfall events and therefore theWAM onset in the Sahel are not sensitive to the presence of the ACT. However, the warm SST perturbation does increase downstream rainfall rates over West Africa as a consequence of enhanced specific humidity and enhanced northward moisture flux in the lower troposphere.

Regional model simulation↗

Downscaling Satellite Precipitation with Emphasis on Extremes: A Variational 1-Norm Regularization in the Derivative Domain

The increasing availability of precipitation observations from space, e.g., from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the forthcoming Global Precipitation Measuring (GPM) Mission, has fueled renewed interest in developing frameworks for downscaling and multi-sensor data fusion that can handle large data sets in computationally efficient ways while optimally reproducing desired properties of the underlying rainfall fields. Of special interest is the reproduction of extreme precipitation intensities and gradients, as these are directly relevant to hazard prediction. In this paper, we present a new formalism for downscaling satellite precipitation observations, which explicitly allows for the preservation of some key geometrical and statistical properties of spatial precipitation. These include sharp intensity gradients (due to high-intensity regions embedded within lower-intensity areas), coherent spatial structures (due to regions of slowly varying rainfall),and thicker-than-Gaussian tails of precipitation gradients and intensities. Specifically, we pose the downscaling problem as a discrete inverse problem and solve it via a regularized variational approach (variational downscaling) where the regularization term is selected to impose the desired smoothness in the solution while allowing for some steep gradients(called 1-norm or total variation regularization). We demonstrate the duality between this geometrically inspired solution and its Bayesian statistical interpretation, which is equivalent to assuming a Laplace prior distribution for the precipitation intensities in the derivative (wavelet) space. When the observation operator is not known, we discuss the effect of its misspecification and explore a previously proposed dictionary-based sparse inverse downscaling methodology to indirectly learn the observation operator from a database of coincidental high- and low-resolution observations. The proposed method and ideas are illustrated in case studies featuring the downscaling of a hurricane precipitation field.

Hurricanes↗

Changes in the Structure and Propagation of the MJO with Increasing CO2

Changes in the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) with increasing CO2 concentrations are examined using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Global Climate Model (GCM). Four simulations performed with fixed CO2 concentrations of 0.5, 1, 2 and 4 times pre-industrial levels using the GCM coupled with a mixed layer ocean model are analyzed in terms of the basic state, rainfall and moisture variability, and the structure and propagation of the MJO.The GCM simulates basic state changes associated with increasing CO2 that are consistent with results from earlier studies: column water vapor increases at approximately 7.1% K(exp -1), precipitation also increases but at a lower rate (approximately 3% K(exp -1)), and column relative humidity shows little change. Moisture and rainfall variability intensify with warming. Total moisture and rainfall variability increases at a rate that is similar to that of the mean state change. The intensification is faster in the MJO-related anomalies than in the total anomalies, though the ratio of the MJO band variability to its westward counterpart increases at a much slower rate. On the basis of linear regression analysis and space-time spectral analysis, it is found that the MJO exhibits faster eastward propagation, faster westward energy dispersion, a larger zonal scale and deeper vertical structure in warmer climates.

Adames, Angel F.↗

Precipitation Characteristics in West and East Africa from Satellite and in Situ Observations

Using in situ data, three precipitation classes are identified for rainy seasons of West and East Africa: weak convective rainfall (WCR), strong convective rainfall (SCR), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs).Nearly 75% of the total seasonal precipitation is produced by the SCR and MCSs, even though they represent only 8% of the rain events. Rain events in East Africa tend to have a longer duration and lower intensity than in West Africa, reflecting different characteristics of the SCR and MCS events in these two regions. Surface heating seems to be the primary convection trigger for the SCR, particularly in East Africa, whereas the WCR requires a dynamical trigger such as low-level convergence. The data are used to evaluate the performance of the recently launched Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG)project. The IMERG-based precipitation shows significant improvement over its predecessor, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), particularly in capturing the MCSs, due to its improved temporal resolution.

West and East Africa↗

A Ground Validation Network for the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission

A prototype Validation Network (VN) is currently operating as part of the Ground Validation System for NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. The VN supports precipitation retrieval algorithm development in the GPM prelaunch era. Postlaunch, the VN will be used to validate GPM spacecraft instrument measurements and retrieved precipitation data products. The period of record for the VN prototype starts on 8 August 2006 and runs to the present day. The VN database includes spacecraft data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) and coincident ground radar (GR) data from operational meteorological networks in the United States, Australia, Korea, and the Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands. Satellite and ground radar data products are collected whenever the PR satellite track crosses within 200 km of a VN ground radar, and these data are stored permanently in the VN database. VN products are generated from coincident PR and GR observations when a significant rain event occurs. The VN algorithm matches PR and GR radar data (including retrieved precipitation data in the case of the PR) by calculating averages of PR reflectivity (both raw and attenuation corrected) and rain rate, and GR reflectivity at the geometric intersection of the PR rays with the individual GR elevation sweeps. The algorithm thus averages the minimum PR and GR sample volumes needed to "matchup" the spatially coincident PR and GR data types. The result of this technique is a set of vertical profiles for a given rainfall event, with coincident PR and GR samples matched at specified heights throughout the profile. VN data can be used to validate satellite measurements and to track ground radar calibration over time. A comparison of matched TRMM PR and GR radar reflectivity factor data found a remarkably small difference between the PR and GR radar reflectivity factor averaged over this period of record in stratiform and convective rain cases when samples were taken from high in the atmosphere. A significant difference in PR and GR reflectivity was found in convective cases, particularly in convective samples from the lower part of the atmosphere. In this case, the mean difference between PR and corrected GR reflectivity was −1.88 dBZ. The PR-GR bias was found to increase with the amount of PR attenuation correction applied, with the PR-GR bias reaching −3.07 dBZ in cases where the attenuation correction applied is greater than 6 dBZ. Additional analysis indicated that the version 6 TRMM PR retrieval algorithm underestimates rainfall in case of convective rain in the lower part of the atmosphere by 30%-40%.

Schwaller, Mathew R.↗

A Ground Validation Network for the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission

A prototype Validation Network (VN) is currently operating as part of the Ground Validation System for NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. The VN supports precipitation retrieval algorithm development in the GPM prelaunch era. Postlaunch, the VN will be used to validate GPM spacecraft instrument measurements and retrieved precipitation data products. The period of record for the VN prototype starts on 8 August 2006 and runs to the present day. The VN database includes spacecraft data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) and coincident ground radar (GR) data from operational meteorological networks in the United States, Australia, Korea, and the Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands. Satellite and ground radar data products are collected whenever the PR satellite track crosses within 200 km of a VN ground radar, and these data are stored permanently in the VN database. VN products are generated from coincident PR and GR observations when a significant rain event occurs. The VN algorithm matches PR and GR radar data (including retrieved precipitation data in the case of the PR) by calculating averages of PR reflectivity (both raw and attenuation corrected) and rain rate, and GR reflectivity at the geometric intersection of the PR rays with the individual GR elevation sweeps. The algorithm thus averages the minimum PR and GR sample volumes needed to "matchup" the spatially coincident PR and GR data types. The result of this technique is a set of vertical profiles for a given rainfall event, with coincident PR and GR samples matched at specified heights throughout the profile. VN data can be used to validate satellite measurements and to track ground radar calibration over time. A comparison of matched TRMM PR and GR radar reflectivity factor data found a remarkably small difference between the PR and GR radar reflectivity factor averaged over this period of record in stratiform and convective rain cases when samples were taken from high in the atmosphere. A significant difference in PR and GR reflectivity was found in convective cases, particularly in convective samples from the lower part of the atmosphere. In this case, the mean difference between PR and corrected GR reflectivity was -1.88 dBZ. The PR-GR bias was found to increase with the amount of PR attenuation correction applied, with the PR-GR bias reaching -3.07 dBZ in cases where the attenuation correction applied is greater than 6 dBZ. Additional analysis indicated that the version 6 TRMM PR retrieval algorithm underestimates rainfall in case of convective rain in the lower part of the atmosphere by 30%-40%.

Schwaller, Mathew R.↗

Developing a Remotely Sensed Drought Monitoring Indicator for Morocco

Drought is one of the most serious climatic and natural disasters inflicting serious impacts on the socio-economy of Morocco, which is characterized both by low-average annual rainfall and high irregularity in the spatial distribution and timing of precipitation across the country. This work aims to develop a comprehensive and integrated method for drought monitoring based on remote sensing techniques. The main input parameters are derived monthly from satellite data at the national scale and are then combined to generate a composite drought index presenting different severity classes of drought. The input parameters are: Standardized Precipitation Index calculated from satellite-based precipitation data since 1981 (CHIRPS), anomalies in the day-night difference of Land Surface Temperature as a proxy for soil moisture, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index anomalies from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and Evapotranspiration anomalies from surface energy balance modeling. All of these satellite-based indices are being used to monitor vegetation condition, rainfall and land surface temperature. The weighted combination of these input parameters into one composite indicator takes into account the importance of the rainfall-based parameter (SPI). The composite drought index maps were generated during the growing seasons going back to 2003. These maps have been compared to both the historical, in situ precipitation data across Morocco and with the historical yield data across different provinces with information being available since 2000. The maps are disseminated monthly to several main stakeholders' groups including the Ministry of Agriculture and Department of Water in Morocco.

Drought monitoring↗

A Rain Taxonomy for Degraded Visual Environment Mitigation

This Technical Memorandum (TM) provides a description of a rainfall taxonomy that defines the detailed characteristics of naturally occurring rainfall. The taxonomy is based on raindrop size measurements collected around the globe and encompasses several different climate types. Included in this TM is a description of these rainfall observations, an explanation of methods used to process those data, and resultant metrics comprising the rain taxonomy database. Each of the categories in the rain taxonomy are characterized by a unique set of raindrop sizes that can be used in simulations of electromagnetic wave propagation through a rain medium.

meteorology↗

Observed Response of the Raindrop Size Distribution to Changes in the Melting Layer

Vertical variability in the raindrop size distribution (RSD) can disrupt the basic assumption of a constant rain profile that is customarily parameterized in radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) techniques. This study investigates the utility of melting layer (ML) characteristics to help prescribe the RSD, in particular the mass-weighted mean diameter (Dm), of stratiform rainfall. We utilize ground-based polarimetric radar to map the ML and compare it with Dm observations from the ground upwards to the bottom of the ML. The results show definitive proof that a thickening, and to a lesser extent a lowering, of the ML causes an increase in raindrop diameter below the ML that extends to the surface. The connection between rainfall at the ground and the overlying microphysics in the column provide a means for improving radar QPE at far distances from a ground-based radar or close to the ground where satellite-based radar rainfall retrievals can be ill-defined.

Weather↗

Latent Heating Algorithm

Rainfall production is a fundamental process within the Earth's hydrological cycle because it represents both a principal forcing term in surface water budgets, and its energetics corollary, latent heating, is the principal source of atmospheric diabatic heating. Latent heat release itself is a consequence of phase changes between the vapor, liquid, and frozen states of water. The properties of the vertical distribution of latent heat release modulate large-scale meridional and zonal circulations within the Tropics - as well as modify the energetic efficiencies of mid-latitude weather systems. This paper highlights the retrieval of latent heat release from satellite measurements generated by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission satellite observatory, which were launched in November 1997 and February 2014, respectively. Both TRMM and GPM measurements have been providing an accurate four-dimensional account of rainfall over the global Tropics and mid-latitudes: information that can be used to estimate the space-time structure of latent heating.Two sets of latent heating (LH) retrieval algorithm methodologies (Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating or CSH, and Japan's Spectral Latent Heating or SLH) have been developed to estimate latent heating based on rain rate profile retrievals obtained from TRMM and GPM measurements. The differences and similarities between the CSH and SLH algorithm designs will be presented. The presentation then will provide the results of LH structures derived from the TRMM and GPM. At the end of presentation, the further research on latent heating retrieval from satellites will be discussed.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Intraseasonal Variations of Nonmigrating Tides Observed Near the Mesopause

Nonmigrating tides excited in the tropical troposphere by latent heat release from deep convection are known to be responsible for introducing the longitudinal structures in the upper atmosphere and the ionosphere. This study presents for the first time an extensive analysis of the prominent wave-3 and wave-4 longitudinal structures using nearly 14 years of temperature observations by the Microwave Limb Sounder instrument operated on the Aura satellite from 2004 to 2017. The observations reveal significant intraseasonal (~30-60 days) periodic variations in the amplitudes of these wave structures at ~97-km altitude near the mesopause. Some large wave amplitudes accompany strong activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission are used as a proxy of latent heating to investigate the source of these variations. Intraseasonal signatures in the wave structures are observed to coincide with the rainfall variations, indicating that the tropospheric 30- to 60- day oscillation is an important driver of the same periodic changes in the upper atmosphere. Given that not all intraseasonal oscillations in the lower atmosphere have corresponding signatures in the longitudinal wave structures, the atmospheric conditions and other influences are important. This study provides evidence on the connection between intraseasonal variations of tides in the upper atmosphere and the changes in the forcing by latent heat release in the troposphere.

Liu, Guiping↗

Climate Change Impact and Adaptation for Wheat Protein

Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32‐multi‐model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low‐rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2. Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by −1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of −8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.

grain protein↗

Goddard Latent Heating (LH) Retrieval Algorithm

Rainfall production is a fundamental process within the Earth's hydrological cycle because it represents both a principal forcing term in surface water budgets, and its energetics corollary, latent heating, is the principal source of atmospheric diabatic heating. Latent heat release itself is a consequence of phase changes between the vapor, liquid, and frozen states of water. The properties of the vertical distribution of latent heat release modulate large-scale meridional and zonal circulations within the Tropics - as well as modify the energetic efficiencies of mid-latitude weather systems. This paper highlights the retrieval of latent heat release from satellite measurements generated by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) satellite observatory, which were launched in November 1997 and February 2014, respectively. Both TRMM and GPM measurements have been providing an accurate four-dimensional account of rainfall over the global Tropics and mid-latitudes: information that can be used to estimate the space-time structure of latent heating. Two sets of latent heating retrieval algorithm methodologies (Goddard Convective-Stratiform or CSH, and Japan Spectral Latent Heating or SLH) have been developed to estimate latent heating based on rain rate profile retrievals obtained from TRMM and GPM measurements. The CSH algorithm will be described followed by a discussion its improvements and performance against the combined derived surface ran rates. We will also present the CSH retrieved LH for TRMM and GPM.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Providing Data Access and Analysis Capabilities to SERVIR’s Data-Sparse Regions

In developing regions of the world, the communications infrastructure pose enormous challenges for using Earth observation data. Limited internet bandwidth along with the high costs make it almost impossible to process and extract zonal statistics over large periods of time for even small geographic areas. In such cases, downloading daily rainfall data or dekadal series of NDVI data would take days and consume all the bandwidth allocated to an organization (for reference, internet connections in Niger would cost thousands of dollars per month at a maximum - and unreliable - bandwidth of just 10 Mbps). Running crop models or hydrological models typically require several years of historic data over the area of interest (AOI). In some cases, these AOIs are relatively small compared to the footprint of individual earth observation granules. Hence, systems that let the stakeholders subset the data to download to a user specified area, or even submit processing requests that let them download small result files for the AOI become critical. The SERVIR program has developed a tool to provide this type of access to help decision makers in developing regions use long time series of adjusted rainfall data (CHIRPS), NDVI values, seasonal weather forecasts, evaporative stress indices and others in a very efficient manner. This system, named ClimateSERV (https://climateserv.servirglobal.net) ingests the datasets in an automated fashion and allows interactive access (through a web application), or automated access through a simple API that developers can quickly incorporate in independent applications. This way, the extraction of daily averages of rainfall over a 50 square Km area through 30 years of archived data takes only a few seconds to process, and the results can be presented on an online chart or downloaded in a comma separated file that's only a few Kb.

Ashmall, William↗

Comparison of Surface Fluxes Derived from CYGNSS and Simulated by WRF Model: An MJO Case Study

This study focuses on ocean surface fluxes, mainly the latent heat flux, and their impact on MJO propagation and associated precipitation structures over the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. The Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) model is used to simulate two MJO events during the 2017-2018 season: the December 10 - January 20, 2017 case, which maintained its strong precipitation signal over the Maritime Continent, and the March 1 - 20, 2018 case, which was weaker and did not propagate through the Maritime Continent. Both simulated MJO events show positive biases in surface rainfall compared with GPM IMERG data. During the MJO suppressed phase, the simulations rain more often than the observations. During the active phase, the westward propagating precipitation structures are more organized and much stronger compared with the observations, sometimes forming westward propagating cyclones that weakened the eastward precipitation signals. Two aspects of the surface flux interactions are investigated: the impact of the domain mean surface fluxes, and the impact of storm scale circulations and their interactions with local surface fluxes. Both aspects affect water vapor budget, atmosphere instability and mean flow, through which convection initiation, organization, and propagation are influenced. Model sensitivity tests with different radiation, microphysics, PBL schemes and nudging schemes indicate that in the control simulations, higher SST and surface fluxes, especially during the suppressed period, are the main reason of rainfall overestimation compared with IMERG data. The strong westward propagating signals are caused by both increased atmosphere instability and reduced mean wind shear. Unfortunately, the small differences in mean SST and surface fluxes between different model sensitivity tests are all within the satellite observation error margin, and cannot be directly corroborated by observations. One of the advantages of CYGNSS satellites is that they observe ocean surface wind and heat fluxes underneath strong rainfall events such as the convective systems associated with MJO active phases. Currently we are comparing CYGNSS level 2 surface fluxes retrievals and the model simulations in order to better understand the second aspect of the MJO and surface fluxes interactions, and how this affects MJO strengths and propagations. The interactive atmosphere-ocean-wave model also provides cases that directly comparing satellite observables (the bistatic radar cross section) and the model simulations (through CYGNSS satellite simulator). These discrepancies are more prominent in coupled ocean simulations, mainly due to higher SST and enhanced surface fluxes.

Li, Xiaowen↗

Raindrop Signature from Microwave Radiometer over Deserts

Rainfall estimates from spaceborne microwave radiometers form the foundation of global precipitation datasets. Since the beginning of the satellite microwave rainfall estimation era in the1980s, the primary signature leveraged over land for these estimates has been the brightness temperature (TB) depression due to ice particle scattering. Contrary to this practice, time series analyses based on observations from two spaceborne radars and two spaceborne radiometers reveal a TB increase due to raindrop emission as the primary cloud particle signature over desert terrain. Low surface emissivity supports the use of liquid raindrop emission as the primary signature over desert surfaces. In these regions, the surface rain rate better correlates with the liquid raindrop emission signal than with the scattering induced by ice further aloft, suggesting a new potential for improving rainfall estimation over deserts by exploiting the liquid raindrop emission signature.

Yalei You↗

New Global Characterization of Landslide Exposure

Landslides triggered by intense rainfall are hazards that impact people and infrastructure across the world, but comprehensively quantifying exposure to these hazards remains challenging. Unlike earthquakes or flooding which cover large areas, landslides occur only in highly susceptible parts of a landscape affected by intense rainfall, which may not intersect human settlement or infrastructure. Existing datasets of landslides around the world generally include only those reported to have caused impacts, leading to significant biases toward areas with higher reporting capacity, limiting how our understanding of exposure to landslides in developing countries. In this study, we use an alternative approach to estimate exposure to landslides in a homogenous fashion. We have combined a global landslide hazard proxy derived from satellite data with open-source datasets on population, roads and infrastructure to consistently estimate exposure to rapid landslide hazards around the globe. These exposure models compare favorably with existing datasets of rainfall-triggered landslide fatalities, while filling in major gaps in inventory-based estimates in parts of the world with lower reporting capacity. Our findings provide a global estimate of exposure to landslides from 2001-2019 that we suggest may be useful to disaster mitigation professionals.

earthquakes↗

Analyzing the Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle using GPM, TROPICS, and other Spaceborne Observations

Tropical cyclones (TCs) exhibit a distinct diurnal cycle of high clouds and rainfall, marked by an expansion of the TC cirrus canopy during the day and enhanced rainfall overnight. Recent modeling work also has uncovered a diurnal cycle of low-level radial and tangential winds in simulated storms, marked by an expansion of the surface wind field overnight and into the morning, along with increasing maximum wind speed in the eyewall. These results suggest that diurnal changes in radiative heating tendencies not only affect upper-level cirrus clouds and precipitating convection, but also the low-level circulation. This presentation will characterize expansions of the TC rain field using the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission’s Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) half-hourly precipitation estimates. The Level 3 IMERG-Final rainfall data are azimuthally averaged about TC center positions in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins, accounting for asymmetries due to vertical wind shear and storm motion. Preliminary results indicate that the TC rain field expands overnight and through the morning, reaching its maximum extent during the afternoon. This evolution is considerably asymmetric, however, with expansion favored downshear of the storm center. The results are broadly consistent with previous work that characterized the TC diurnal cycle using other observations and simulations. A similar analysis is performed using microphysical retrievals from the GPM Goddard Profiling algorithm and lightning data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper to understand the relationship between the diurnal cycle, ice microphsyics, and lightning. Finally, with the ongoing Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission, we will discuss our plans to leverage TROPICS for enhanced observation of the TC diurnal cycle.

Patrick Duran↗