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At least 1,279 records · Page 71
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable machine learning to quantify the value of proximal remote sensing in latent energy flux estimation

Proximal remote sensing has the potential to provide critical information on vegetation biophysical factors that can predict land-atmosphere exchange of water and energy. Latent energy (LE) flux is traditionally estimated using process-based models which rely on vegetation parameters that change during the growing season. Data-driven models have the potential to address these issues by offering flexible predictor selection and more efficient utilization of the information in predictor sets. These models require careful choice of predictors to avoid redundancy and allow robust cross-validation. In this study we present a systematic and comprehensive evaluation of machine learning (ML) models to assess the capability of meteorological and proximal sensing data for predicting LE at a half-hourly temporal resolution across multiple growing seasons for an agricultural system. The results presented here demonstrate that a model using four environmental predictors in combination with two proximal sensing variables can capture 88 % of the variability in LE. ML models using only three predictors (one meteorological and two proximal remote sensing) captured 81 % of LE variability, offering the best trade-off between performance and complexity. An ML model utilizing only two predictors, one proximal remote sensing variable and downwelling radiation, captured 77 % of LE variability. These results demonstrate the power of proximal remote sensing and meteorological observations to estimate land-atmosphere water vapor exchange, providing a solution where more direct methods such as eddy covariance are not available and for evaluations of agronomic management and genotypic variations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-economic analysis of advanced small modular nuclear reactors

Here, small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) represent a robust opportunity to develop low-carbon and reliable power with the potential to meet cost parity with conventional power systems. This study presents a detailed, bottom-up economic evaluation of a 12 × 77 MW e (924 MW e total) light-water SMR (LW-SMR) plant, a 4 × 262 MW e (1,048 MW e ) gas-cooled SMR (GC-SMR) plant, and a 5 × 200 MW e (1,000 MW e total) molten salt SMR (MS-SMR) plant. Cost estimates are derived from equipment costs, labor hours, material inputs, and process-engineering models. The advanced SMRs are compared to natural gas combined cycle plants with and without post-combustion carbon capture and a conventional large nuclear reactor. Overnight capital cost (OCC) and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) estimates are developed. The OCC of the LW-SMR, GC-SMR, and MS-SMR are found to be $\$4,844$/kW, $\$4,355$/kW, and $\$3,985$/kW respectively. The LCOE of the LW-SMR, GC-SMR, and MS-SMR are found to be $\$89.6$/MWh, $\$81.5$/MWh, and $\$80.6$/MWh respectively. A Monte Carlo analysis is performed, for which the OCC and construction time of the LW-SMR is found to have a lower mean and standard deviation than a conventional large reactor. The LW-SMR OCC is found to have a mean of $\$5,233$/kW with a standard deviation of $\$658$/kW and a 90 % probability of remaining between $\$4,254$/kW and $\$6,399$/kW, while the construction duration is found to have a mean of 4.5 years with a standard deviation of 0.8 years and a 90 % probability of remaining between 3.4 and 6.0 years. The economic impact of economies of scale, simplification, modularization, and construction time for SMRs are discussed. Additionally, policy implications for direct SMR capital subsidies and the impact of a carbon tax on natural gas emissions are explored.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Open data sets for assessing photovoltaic system reliability

Photovoltaic (PV) systems have become a cornerstone of renewable energy strategies, particularly due to the significant reduction in solar power costs over the past decade. However, the long-term reliability of PV installations presents a persistent challenge, requiring the development of advanced monitoring and predictive maintenance strategies. A wide range of data types is used to evaluate the health of PV systems, including environmental conditions, electrical performance, and inspection imagery. These data enable methodologies such as machine learning (ML) models for lifetime prediction and computer vision techniques for defect detection. However, the acquisition of high-quality and comprehensive data is difficult, particularly in terms of long-term consistency and data variety. Publicly available data sets serve as valuable resources for addressing these challenges, but they often suffer from fragmentation and are difficult to access. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing open-source data sets related to PV degradation, analyzing their features, functionalities, and potential applications. We categorize these data sets based on the specific aspects of PV system information they cover, such as environmental conditions, operational monitoring, image inspection and module materials, and propose relevant tools and ML models for processing them. In addition, we propose practices for future data collection and usage, while also discussing potential directions in data-driven research. Our aim is to enhance data utilization and publication among researchers and industry professionals, promoting a deeper understanding of the role of data in enhancing the performance and durability of PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Opportunities in multiscale modeling of mosquito-borne flaviviruses

Mosquito-borne flaviviruses, such as Zika, dengue, West Nile, and yellow fever virus, represent a growing public health concern due to their widespread distribution and the severe diseases they cause. These viruses are difficult to control as climate change and urbanization help mosquitoes expand into new areas, increasing the risk of outbreaks. Mathematical models play a key role in understanding their spread, providing insights at every level—from how the virus multiplies inside cells to how it circulates through entire populations. This review examines various approaches used in modeling arboviruses, including microscale models that focus on cellular and molecular dynamics, mesoscale models that address within-host processes, and macroscale models that capture population-level transmission. We briefly summarize the methodology used for models at each scale, which primarily consists of sets of differential equations with parameters that represent physical rates of change for different subprocesses. We particularly highlight how temperature affects virus transmission, which is key to understanding the impact of climate change. We also show how multiscale models can connect viral replication, immune response, and the spread of infection at a larger scale. This is essential for developing better vaccines and treatments, evaluating disease control measures, predicting the impact of climate change, and improving public health responses to outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reinforcement learning for online adaptation of model predictive controllers: Application to a selective catalytic reduction unit

Here we present a novel application of reinforcement learning (RL) for online dynamic tuning of model predictive controllers (MPC). Applying a state-action-reward-state-action (SARSA) algorithm for temporal difference learning with a control-specific reward function improves the error tracking performance of a standard MPC formulation. The proposed RL approach is also readily adaptable to other MPCs, or entirely different control approaches. Practical details for the implementation of the RL-MPC algorithm are also presented. The proposed algorithm is applied to a case study of controlling nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions in an industrial selective catalytic reduction (SCR) unit, a control problem characterized by significant nonlinearity and time delay. Along with an RL-MPC formulation for NOx control, another MPC is proposed to mitigate ammonia slip and decrease ammonia consumption in the SCR. Results showing the efficacy of the RL-MPC for NO x control through learning and implementation on the nonlinear SCR dynamic model are presented.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predictive dynamic wetting, fluid–structure interaction simulations for braze run-out

Brazing and soldering are metallurgical joining techniques that use a wetting molten metal to create a joint between two faying surfaces. Here, the quality of the brazing process depends strongly on the wetting properties of the molten filler metal, namely the surface tension and contact angle, and the resulting joint can be susceptible to various defects, such as run-out and underfill, if the material properties or joining conditions are not suitable. In this work, we implement a finite element simulation to predict the formation of such defects in braze processes. This model incorporates both fluid–structure interaction through an arbitrary Eulerian–Lagrangian technique and free surface wetting through conformal decomposition finite element modeling. Upon validating our numerical simulations against experimental run-out studies on a silver-Kovar system, we then use the model to predict run-out and underfill in systems with variable surface tension, contact angles, and applied pressure. Finally, we consider variable joint/surface geometries and show how different geometrical configurations can help to mitigate run-out. This work aims to understand how brazing defects arise and validate a coupled wetting and fluid–structure interaction simulation that can be used for other industrial problems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A decision support tool for e-waste recycling operations using the hen-and-chicks bio-inspired optimization metaheuristic

E-waste from end-of-life electrical and electronic devices is one of the fastest growing waste streams from households and businesses. E-waste recycling yields environmental sustainability and economic benefits. Due to continuous changes in e-waste types and compositions, recycling businesses face challenges to optimize their operational configuration to achieve better economic and environmental performance. To help e-waste recyclers mitigate this problem, we have developed a modular decision support tool called the Comprehensive Manufacturing Assessment Tool (CMAT) that can simulate both e-waste recycling operations and economics. This tool can give valuable insights regarding the profitability of the entire operation and different e-waste types. In addition, a new bio-inspired metaheuristic optimization algorithm, hen-and-chicks optimization (HACO), was developed to assign manpower to different workstations to maximize operational efficiencies. According to the results of our case study, laptops, desktops, and computer peripherals are the three electronic waste products that produce the most profit. Our examination of the sensitivity of material prices shows that the price of steel has the most significant influence on total profit, because it is the most widely used material in the majority of electronic devices. We have released the decision support tool as open-source software under a general public license. It could be customized for other recycling industries beyond e-waste to achieve business sustainability by making their operations more efficient.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

New insights into Mn 2+ and Mg 2+ inhibition of calcite growth

Impurity ion and isotope partitioning into carbonate minerals provide a window into the molecular processes occurring at the fluid-mineral interface during crystal growth. Here, we employ calcium isotope fractionation together with process-based modeling to elucidate the mechanisms by which two divalent cations with starkly contrasting compatibility, magnesium and manganese, inhibit calcite growth and incorporate into the mineral lattice. Calcite growth inhibition by Mg 2+ is log-linear and K Mg is on the order of 0.02–0.03 throughout the range of {Mg 2+ }/{Ca 2+ } studied here (0.01–2.6). Mn 2+ exhibits much stronger log-linear growth rate inhibition at low Mn 2+ concentrations (fluid {Mn 2+ }/{Ca 2+ } = 0.001–0.02). Mn 2+ is readily incorporated into the calcite lattice to form a calcite-rhodochrosite solid solution, with large partition coefficients (K Mn 4.6–15.6) inversely correlated to growth rate. For both Mn 2+ and Mg 2+ , calcium isotope fractionation is found to be invariant with {Me 2+ }/{Ca 2+ } despite more than an order of magnitude decline in growth rate. This invariant Δ 44/40 Ca suggests that the presence of Mn 2 + or Mg 2+ does not significantly change the relative rates of Ca 2+ attachment and detachment at kink sites during growth, indicative of a dominantly kink blocking inhibition mechanism. Because the partitioning behavior dictates that Mn 2+ must attach to the surface significantly faster than Ca 2+ , attachment of Mn 2+ is likely to be as a non-monomer species such as an ion pair or possibly a larger polynuclear cluster. We propose that calcite growth rate inhibition by Mn is determined by the kinetics of carbonate attachment at Mn-occupied kink sites, potentially due to slow re-orientation kinetics of carbonate ions that have formed an inner-sphere complex with Mn 2+ at the surface but must reorient to incorporate into the lattice. We demonstrate that patterns in Mg 2+ partitioning and inhibition behavior are broadly consistent with growth inhibition driven by slow Mg 2+ -aquo complex dehydration relative to Ca 2+ but argue that this mechanism likely represents one endmember scenario, seen in Mg-calcite growth at low supersaturations and net precipitation rates. During growth at faster net precipitation rates, some portion of Mg 2+ is likely incorporated as a partially hydrated or otherwise complexed species, but calcite growth remains significantly inhibited by the kinetics of CO 3 2- attachment at Mg 2+ kink sites. These findings suggest a hybrid classical/nonclassical growth mechanism whereby Ca 2+ incorporates largely as a free ion at kink sites while Mn 2+ and some portion of Mg 2+ are incorporated via non-monomer attachment. This pattern may be generalizable; trace constituent cations with aquo-complex desolvation rates significantly slower than the mineral growth rate preferentially incorporate as a non-monomer species during otherwise classical crystal growth.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis and prediction of reaction kinetics using the degree of rate control

“Degree of rate control” (DRC) analysis provides a quantitative approach for analysing the kinetics of multi-step reaction mechanisms that has been widely applied to both heterogeneous and homogeneous catalysis research, as well as electrocatalysis. The DRC of any given transition state or intermediate is defined as a partial derivative such that it approximately equals the fractional increase in net rate to the product of interest per differential decrease in its standard-state free energy for that species (÷RT), holding constant the standard-state free energies of all other transition states and intermediates. Even very complex mechanisms usually have only a few species with non-zero DRCs and are thus the species whose interactions with the catalyst most strongly affect the net rate. These key DRC values thus offer a simple and intuitive route to optimize catalyst materials, especially with the assistance of computational methods like density functional theory (DFT). These high-DRC species are also the species whose energetics must be most accurately measured or calculated to achieve an accurate kinetic model for any reaction mechanism. In simple cases with a single “rate-determining step”, the DRC for its transition state (TS) is + 1. Catalyst-bound intermediates, on the other hand, often have negative DRCs equal to a small integer times their fractional occupancy of catalyst sites. The apparent activation energy equals a weighted average of the standard-state enthalpies (relative to reactants) of all the species (intermediates, transition states and products) in the reaction mechanism, each weighted by its DRC (+RT). It has been shown that the apparent transfer coefficient in electrocatalysis, an inverted form of the Tafel slope, is a weighted average of the number of electrons transferred to generate each intermediate or product species in the mechanism, weighted again by the DRC. Quantitative analysis of kinetic isotope effects (KIEs, or the ratio of net rates for different reactant isotopes) in complex mechanisms has shown that the logarithm of the KIE equals the weighted average over all species in the mechanism of the difference between the two isotopes in their standard-state free energies (÷RT), again weighted by the DRC. The reaction orders with respect to fluid-phase concentrations of reactants, products and intermediates have also been proven to be directly related to DRCs. Thus, there are numerous experimental observables which equate to short linear combinations of DRCs, so that combinations of experimental measurements might provide access to DRC values. Since its invention for transition states in 1994 and its generalization to include intermediates in 2009, the DRC has thus far mainly been calculated for microkinetic models based either entirely on DFT or on DFT with the key energies (i.e., those for high-DRC species) being fine-tuned to match experiments. The relationships summarized in this work provide new opportunities for using experiments earlier in the development and optimization of microkinetic models that require input from computational catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Non -degenerate marginal-likelihood calibration with application to quantum characterization

Here, we propose a marginal likelihood strategy within the Kennedy-O’Hagan (KOH) Bayesian framework, where a Gaussian process (GP) models the discrepancy between a physical system and its simulator. Our approach introduces a novel marginalized likelihood by integrating out the degenerate eigenspace of the covariance matrix, rather than approximating the original likelihood. Unlike approximation methods that compromise accuracy for computational efficiency, our method defines an exact likelihood—distinct from the original but preserving all relevant information. This formulation achieves computational efficiency and stability, even for large datasets where the covariance matrix nears degeneracy. Applied to the characterization of a superconducting quantum device at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the approach enhances the predictive accuracy of the Lindblad master equations for modeling Ramsey measurement data by effectively quantifying uncertainties consistent with the quantum data.

general physics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-informed Bayesian machine learning case study: Integral blade rotors

This paper provides a physics-informed Bayesian machine learning (PIBML) description and case study. The PIBML approach applies three physics-based models to establish the initial beliefs before testing to determine the probability of milling stability (or prior). These include: receptance coupling substructure analysis (RCSA) prediction for the tool tip frequency response functions; finite element software prediction of the mechanistic force model coefficients; and a spindle speed-dependent power law model for process damping. Testing was then performed to identify optimal stable machining conditions using an expected improvement in material removal rate criterion. The prior probability of stability was updated using the test results to determine the posterior probability of stability. The test results were compared to the parameter recommendations provided by the endmill manufacturer. A demonstration integral blade rotor was machined at the optimal stable machining conditions for 304 stainless steel and 6061-T6 aluminum. Finally, the disagreement between manufacturer recommendations and milling performance in both materials tested emphasizes the need for broad implementation of PIBML approaches to increase machining productivity and efficiency.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning framework for predicting uranium enrichments from M400 CZT gamma spectra

A machine learning framework was developed for predicting uranium enrichments from M400 CZT gamma spectra. This framework leverages the availability of a large amount of measured M400 gamma spectra and uses a recently updated version of Gamma Detector Response and Analysis Software (GADRAS) for gamma spectrum analysis and generation. It also leverages the existing machine learning modules in Python for gamma spectrum data processing, curation, model training, benchmarking, and optimization of the deep machine learning models. The framework is used to develop a deep learning model to analyze gamma spectra from a set of U 3 O 8 samples with enrichments ranging from 0.31 to 93.17% and UF 6 cylinders with enrichments ranging from 0.2 to 4.95%, and the model performance is tested using a set of measured spectra and the respective declared enrichment values. Results show that the model can correctly classify 99.35% of the U 3 O 8 sample enrichments, and can predict the samples’ enrichments within an average absolute error of 0.099% (in percentage points of enrichment). For the UF 6 cylinders, the average absolute error was approximately 0.03%, with an accuracy of 98% in classifying discrete enrichment values of UF 6 samples. Finally, the results also show that the model has performed significantly better in terms of predicting enrichments in UF 6 cylinders based on measured gamma spectra than the GEM code, with a standard deviation (of the relative errors) of 2.23% (compared with the 11.51% value for the GEM code) based on results from a set of test data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for CP violation in events with top quarks and Z bosons at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 and 13.6 TeV

A search for the violation of the charge-parity (CP) symmetry in the production of top quarks in association with Z bosons is presented, using events with at least three charged leptons and additional jets. The search is performed in a sample of proton-proton collision data collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC in 2016–2018 at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV and in 2022 at 13.6 TeV, corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 173 fb –1 . For the first time in this final state, observables that are odd under the CP transformation are employed. Also for the first time, physics-informed machine-learning techniques are used to construct these observables. While for standard model (SM) processes the distributions of these observables are predicted to be symmetric around zero, CP-violating modifications of the SM would introduce asymmetries. Two CP-odd operators $\mathcal{O}$$^{I}_{tW}$ and $\mathcal{O}$$^{I}_{tZ}$ in the SM effective field theory are considered that may modify the interactions between top quarks and electroweak bosons. The obtained results are consistent with the SM prediction within two standard deviations, and exclusion limits on the associated Wilson coefficients of –2.7 < $c$$^{I}_{tW}$ < 2.5 and –0.2 < $c$$^{I}_{tZ}$ < 2.0 and are set at 95 % confidence level. The largest discrepancy is observed in $c$$^{I}_{tZ}$ where data is consistent with positive values, with an observed local significance with respect to the SM hypothesis of 2.5 standard deviations, when only linear terms are considered.

CMS↗