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At least 1,279 records · Page 71

Landmark-embedded Gaussian process with applications for functional data modeling

In practice, we often need to infer the value of a target variable from functional observation data. A challenge in this task is that the relationship between the functional data and the target variable is very complex: the target variable not only influences the shape but also the location of the functional data. In addition, due to the uncertainties in the environment, the relationship is probabilistic, that is, for a given fixed target variable value, we still see variations in the shape and location of the functional data. To address this challenge, we present a landmark-embedded Gaussian process model that describes the relationship between the functional data and the target variable. A unique feature of the model is that landmark information is embedded in the Gaussian process model so that both the shape and location information of the functional data are considered simultaneously in a unified manner. Gibbs-Metropolis-Hasting algorithm is used for model parameters estimation and target variable inference. The performance of the proposed framework is evaluated by extensive numerical studies and a case study of nano-sensor calibration.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Model-Form Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification for Modeling with Differential Equations: Application to Epidemiology

Modeling real-world phenomena to any degree of accuracy is a challenge that the scientific research community has navigated since its foundation. Lack of information and limited computational and observational resources necessitate modeling assumptions which, when invalid, lead to model-form error (MFE). The work reported herein explored a novel method to represent model-form uncertainty (MFU) that combines Bayesian statistics with the emerging field of universal differential equations (UDEs). The fundamental principle behind UDEs is simple: use known equational forms that govern a dynamical system when you have them; then incorporate data-driven approaches – in this case neural networks (NNs) – embedded within the governing equations to learn the interacting terms that were underrepresented. Utilizing epidemiology as our motivating exemplar, this report will highlight the challenges of modeling novel infectious diseases while introducing ways to incorporate NN approximations to MFE. Prior to embarking on a Bayesian calibration, we first explored methods to augment the standard (non-Bayesian) UDE training procedure to account for uncertainty and increase robustness of training. In addition, it is often the case that uncertainty in observations is significant; this may be due to randomness or lack of precision in the measurement process. This uncertainty typically manifests as “noisy” observations which deviate from a true underlying signal. To account for such variability, the NN approximation to MFE is endowed with a probabilistic representation and is updated using available observational data in a Bayesian framework. By representing the MFU explicitly and deploying an embedded, data-driven model, this approach enables an agile, expressive, and interpretable method for representing MFU. In this report we will provide evidence that Bayesian UDEs show promise as a novel framework for any science-based, data-driven MFU representation; while emphasizing that significant advances must be made in the calibration of Bayesian NNs to ensure a robust calibration procedure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integrated Medical Model Project - Overview and Summary of Historical Application

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project. Methods: Figure 1 [see document] illustrates the IMM modeling system and scenario process. As illustrated, the IMM computational architecture is based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques. Nineteen assumptions and limitations define the IMM application domain. Scenario definitions include crew medical attributes and mission specific details. The IMM forecasts probabilities of loss of crew life (LOCL), evacuation (EVAC), quality time lost during the mission, number of medical resources utilized and the number and type of medical events by combining scenario information with in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical information stored in the iMED. In addition, the metrics provide the integrated information necessary to estimate optimized in-flight medical kit contents under constraints of mass and volume or acceptable level of mission risk. Results and Conclusions: Historically, IMM simulations support Science and Technology planning, Exploration mission planning, and ISS program operations by supplying simulation support, iMED data information, and subject matter expertise to Crew Health and Safety and the HRP. Upcoming release of IMM version 4.0 seeks to provide enhanced functionality to increase the quality of risk decisions made using the IMM through a more accurate representation of the real world system.

Myers, J.↗

After the hurricane: Validating a resilience assessment methodology

With increasing utility grid outages in the United States, there is growing interest in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of grid outages. Working with the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a replicable energy resilience assessment methodology and investment decision tool to: (1) identify and score hazards and vulnerabilities at the site level; (2) analyze risks to energy infrastructure; and (3) identify and prioritize energy resilience investments. This work improves on existing resilience assessment methodologies and tools by combining a bottom-up, all-hazards assessment methodology with top-down geographic information system mapping capabilities to provide an innovative, dynamic tool for identifying and prioritizing actionable solutions. This process combines probabilistic forecasting with an iterative approach for continuously updating and reassessing risks to address temporal dynamism. Relationships among systems are modeled and visualized to estimate the effectiveness of resilience actions across multiple interdependent systems and inform financial priorities through cost-difficulty-impact trade-offs. The approach is validated in a case study at Tyndall Air Force Base (AFB) in Florida, which experienced a Category 5 hurricane in 2018. The risks and mitigation strategies identified pre-hurricane are compared with post-hurricane, realized impacts. The assessment effectively identifies risks and actions to increase site energy resilience, but the methodology can be enhanced though greater consideration of the interdependencies between the energy system and related systems like transportation, communication, and food/water systems, which impact the recovery of the energy system and the base.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Weight function procedure for reduced order fracture analysis of arbitrary flaws in cylindrical pressure vessels

Fracture mechanics calculations using the finite element method can be computationally expensive, which makes them challenging to use in engineering evaluations of flaws in pressure vessels. The weight function (WF) technique is a reduced order fracture modeling method that is widely used to greatly reduce these computational costs. Its computational efficiency is essential for use in probabilistic fracture mechanics evaluations of embrittled nuclear reactor pressure vessels (RPVs), due to the large number of sampled flaws that must be evaluated. Although the WF technique is general, it is typically used only for axis-aligned flaws. Recent discoveries of off-axis flaws in operating nuclear reactors have necessitated detailed simulations of such flaws and the interactions between neighboring flaws. This paper presents a generalized WF approach applicable for analyzing arbitrary flaw geometries in thick-walled cylindrical vessels, including surface-breaking and subsurface flaws, which can either axis-aligned or off-axis, and can account for interactions with other flaws. Herein, this approach is demonstrated on representative simulations of multiple flaw geometries in a RPV subjected to transient loading conditions. In all cases, the WF technique gives good comparison with benchmark results from direct simulation with greatly reduced computational effort.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Adaptive mitigation of time-varying quantum noise

Current quantum computers suffer from non-stationary noise channels with high error rates, which undermines their reliability and reproducibility. We propose a Bayesian inference based adaptive algorithm that can learn and mitigate quantum noise in response to changing channel conditions. Our study emphasizes the need for dynamic inference of critical channel parameters to improve program accuracy. We use the Dirichlet distribution to model the stochasticity of the Pauli channel. This allows us to perform Bayesian inference, which can improve the performance of probabilistic error cancellation (PEC) under time-varying noise. Our work demonstrates the importance of characterizing and mitigating temporal variations in quantum noise, which is crucial for developing more accurate and reliable quantum technologies. Our results demonstrate that Bayesian PEC can outperform non-adaptive approaches by a factor of 4.5x when measured using Hellinger distance from the ideal distribution.

Dasgupta, Samudra↗

Validation Metrics for Fixed Effects and Mixed-Effects Calibration

The modern scientific process often involves the development of a predictive computational model. To improve its accuracy, a computational model can be calibrated to a set of experimental data. A variety of validation metrics can be used to quantify this process. Some of these metrics have direct physical interpretations and a history of use, while others, especially those for probabilistic data, are more difficult to interpret. In this work, a variety of validation metrics are used to quantify the accuracy of different calibration methods. Frequentist and Bayesian perspectives are used with both fixed effects and mixed-effects statistical models. Through a quantitative comparison of the resulting distributions, the most accurate calibration method can be selected. Two examples are included which compare the results of various validation metrics for different calibration methods. It is quantitatively shown that, in the presence of significant laboratory biases, a fixed effects calibration is significantly less accurate than a mixed-effects calibration. This is because the mixed-effects statistical model better characterizes the underlying parameter distributions than the fixed effects model. The results suggest that validation metrics can be used to select the most accurate calibration model for a particular empirical model with corresponding experimental data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Methane Integrated Monitoring and Measurement System Design

Methane (CH 4 ), an abundant greenhouse gas, is the second largest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). In comparison to CO 2 , CH 4 has a larger warming effect over a much shorter lifetime. While technologies to radically reduce global carbon dioxide emissions are materializing, rapid reductions in methane emissions are needed to limit near-term warming. Methane is primarily emitted as a byproduct from agricultural activities and energy extraction/utilization and is currently monitored via bottom-up (i.e., activity level) or top-down (via airborne or satellite retrievals) approaches. However, significant methane leaks remain undetected, and emission rates are challenging to characterize with current monitoring frameworks. In this report, we study methane leaks from oil and gas infrastructure using a tiered monitoring approach that combines bottom-up and top-down approaches in an integrated framework. We describe the individual advantages of bottom-up and top-down sensors in both stationary and mobile settings before characterizing how a fully integrated framework can improve predictions and uncertainties of potential leak locations and their emission rates. Further, we study the impact of different atmospheric (wind) conditions on integrated methane monitoring and develop a probabilistic approach to optimal sensor placement, thereby shortening detection times and improving monitoring capabilities. Last, we discuss how biogenic flux modeling can be used to improve assessment of background methane concentrations needed to fully assess the sensitivity of a tiered monitoring system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An advanced method for tracking the evolution of fatigue damage in reusable space propulsion systems

NASA-Lewis is actively involved in the general effort to research, develop, test, and evaluate advanced theoretical, analytical, experimental, and probabilistic analysis concepts required for life prediction of liquid rocket engines at the subcomponent, component, and engine system levels. The models developed are oriented toward use in advanced health monitoring systems of space propulsion systems. It is planned to demonstrate the methodology considering a representative set of three components such as a main injector element, a combustion chamber liner, and a turbopump blade. This paper describes the initial development and application of this method to a specific location in the main injector element of the SSME. Further enhancements and various elements of the framework will be completed as the work proceeds in subsequent years.

Rajagopal, K. R.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, July 2004

Topics: Optoelectronic Sensor System for Guidance in Docking; Hybrid Piezoelectric/Fiber-Optic Sensor Sheets; Multisensor Arrays for Greater Reliability and Accuracy; Integrated-Optic Oxygen Sensors; Ka-Band Autonomous Formation Flying Sensor; CMOS VLSI Active-Pixel Sensor for Tracking; Lightweight, Self-Deploying Foam Antenna Structures; Electrically Small Microstrip Quarter-Wave Monopole Antennas; A 2-to-28-MHz Phase-Locked Loop; Portable Electromyograph; Open-Source Software for Modeling of Nanoelectronic Devices; Software for Generating Strip Maps from SAR Data; Calibration Software for use with Jurassicprok; Software for Probabilistic Risk Reduction; Software Processes SAR Motion-Measurement Data; Improved Method of Purifying Carbon Nanotubes; Patterned Growth of Carbon Nanotubes or Nanofibers; Lightweight, Rack-Mountable Composite Cold Plate/Shelves; SiC-Based Miniature High-Temperature Cantilever Anemometer; Inlet Housing for a Partial-Admission Turbine; Lightweight Thermoformed Structural Components and Optics; Growing High-Quality InAs Quantum Dots for Infrared Lasers; Selected Papers on Protoplanetary Disks; Module for Oxygenating Water without Generating Bubbles; Coastal Research Imaging Spectrometer; Rapid Switching and Modulation by use of Coupled VCSELs; Laser-Induced-Fluorescence Photogrammetry and Videogrammetry; Laboratory Apparatus Generates Dual-Species Cold Atomic Beam; Laser Ablation of Materials for Propulsion of Spacecraft; Small Active Radiation Monitor; Hybrid Image-Plane/Stereo Manipulation; Partitioning a Gridded Rectangle into Smaller Rectangles; Digital Radar-Signal Processors Implemented in FPGAs; Part 1 of a Computational Study of a Drop-Laden Mixing Layer; and Some Improvements in Signal-Conditioning Circuits.

Source record↗

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Resolving Mixtures of Soot Characterized by SP-AMS Spectra Using a Latent Dirichlet Allocation Model

Soot produced by detonation or combustion events exhibits different chemical properties depending on the fuel, device construction, and environmental conditions in which the event occurs. These properties can be useful for defining relevant signatures for probabilistically identifying the different types of events that occurred, based on the soot that is produced from these events. However, it is rare to observe samples of soot from a detonation or combustion that are not contaminated by outside particles. In this paper, we present a method for resolving mixtures of soot to determine the contributions of sources that may be present in samples of recovered soot. We use Latent Dirichlet Allocation to describe the generative process for a sample of recovered soot, and use Variational Bayesian Inference to learn about the parameters associated with the generative model. We demonstrate the utility of this method by considering real samples of mixtures of soot under various frameworks to show that the model is able to identify the different components present in a sample of soot as well as their mixing proportions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modelling and Analysis of a Regenerative Fuel Cell Propulsion System for a High Altitude Long Endurance UAV

In the search to bridge current gaps in surveillance and communication technologies, a new type of, aircraft is currently undergoing design. The idea of a High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) aircraft is already a few decades old, but has only recently become realizable. A relay and collector of information at altitudes of 65,000 feet and higher could greatly improve standards of data exchange, homeland security, and research of the air, land and sea. NASA, as a major force in propulsion research, is exploring methods of powering an autonomous aircraft for days, weeks, or even months without refueling. Such a task requires not only high energy density, but also the ability to make use of renewable energy sources to regenerate power. Hydrogen is one of the most energy dense fuels available. Fuel cells make use of hydrogen by harnessing the energy released as it combines with oxygen to produce electricity and water. Fuel cells are envisioned to occupy future propulsion systems in cooperation with solar cells where the photovoltaic arrays harness sunlight into power which can electrolize the water byproduct into reusable hydrogen and oxygen. Modeling this type of system requires adequate assumptions of support hardware and daily transients in operation. The performance of a regenerative fuel cell propulsion system lies in the flight characteristics (altitude, density, temperature, latitude, etc.). Each subsystem is defined by many parameters which can be varied across wide ranges. Statistical and probabilistic analyses bring forward a wealth of information that can be utilized in the design process. This is necessary since the required technologies are relatively young and barely, if yet, capable. Once the modeling is complete, a design space exploration of this highly constrained scenario can be utilized to find the optimal design. The model will become an interactive environment with which experiments and tests can be run. When linked

Simpson, Mike B.↗

Evaluating probabilistic deep learning methods for uncertainty quantification of temperature downscaling

Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a promising tool for downscaling coarse-resolution climate data to high-resolution outputs, enabling improved regional climate predictions. A critical aspect of DL-based downscaling is the incorporation of uncertainty quantification (UQ), which enhances the interpretability and reliability of predictions—key factors for climate risk assessment and decision-making. This study develops a DL model to downscale 2 m temperature across the contiguous United States using reanalysis datasets. We systematically evaluate three epistemic UQ methods—deep ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo dropout (MCD), and Flipout—based on their probabilistic accuracy, downscaling performance, sensitivity to geographical features, and computational efficiency. Results indicate that MCD generally outperforms Flipout and DEns in terms of calibration and downscaling accuracy. However, DEns demonstrate lower calibration errors in coastal regions, indicating its higher confidence within these areas. Flipout, in contrast, is more sensitive to elevation gradients and exhibits higher calibration errors in mountainous regions. Hence, the choice of UQ method for this task depends on the specific requirements of the application. For applications that prioritize overall calibration, downscaling accuracy, and computational efficiency, MCD is a strong candidate. These findings highlight the importance of selecting UQ methods based on application-specific requirements, such as geographical context and computational constraints. By addressing the trade-offs between UQ methods, this study provides actionable insights for improving the reliability, scalability, and utility of DL-based downscaling in climate science.

Environmental sciences↗

Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach

Integrating solar generation in recent years has highlighted the need for improved accuracy in predicting solar power. Confidence in solar power forecasting can be achieved by designing an ensemble that provides reliable probabilistic information for solar radiation with reduced uncertainty and error. Ideally, ensemble members are created through the optimized perturbation of the initial conditions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Tangent linear models are capable of efficiently investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to model input parameters because they do not require individual perturbation of each variable. This sensitivity study using tangent linear models provide us the capability to identify the right variables to perturb in an ensemble prediction system. In this study, we developed tangent linear models for WRF-Solar modules that directly impact the computation of solar radiation and the simulation of cloud formation and dissipation including the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS), the Noah land surface model (LSM), the Thompson microphysics, the Mello-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, and the Deng scheme for a shallow-convection parameterization. A sensitivity analysis was conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) and WRF-Solar, respectively. Critical forecasting variables that are highly sensitive to the forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes were determined using the relevant WRF-Solar module. This study will be used as a guidance on future research leading to high-quality probabilistic solar forecasting. In this presentation, we discuss the validation of tangent linear approach for WRF-Solar modules and illustrate how the sensitivity results are valuable in the improvement of probabilistic solar prediction.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

It Depends - An Overview of Probabilistic Risk Analysis Concepts

How do you understand the data and assumptions in your probabilistic analysis? The PRA analyst needs to understand the data and input assumptions to effectively communicate the system/mission's risks. The decision maker also needs to understand conservatisms and how to interpret uncertainty in the PRA results. Properties such as assumptions on the distributions, uncertainty, use of test data, and common cause modeling can be the subject of much discussion, but often are the leading drivers of a risk profile.

risk assessment↗

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainities for Different Mission Time Periods

Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which includes high energy protons and high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei. For long duration missions, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is essential for radiation protection of crews on long term space missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field and for optimization of mission planning and costs. For the assessment of organ dosimetric quantities and cancer risks, the particle spectra at each critical body organs must be characterized. In implementing a PRA approach, a statistical model of SPE fluence was developed, because the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature while the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. An overall cumulative probability of a GCR environment for a specified mission period was estimated for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (theta). Finally, this probabilistic approach to space radiation cancer risk was coupled with a model of the radiobiological factors and uncertainties in projecting cancer risks. Probabilities of fatal cancer risk and 95% confidence intervals will be reported for various periods of space missions.

Kim,Myung-Hee Y.↗

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗