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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,279 records · Page 71
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A predictive analytical model of electrical transport in multi-principal-element alloys

A predictive analytical model is presented for the electrical conductivity of multi-principal-element alloys (MPEAs), including those containing aluminum, transition metals, and refractory metals. Given that the lattice parameter of the Wigner-Seitz cell of an MPEA is similarly variable to a bulk metallic glass, it is postulated that electron scattering can be approximated by a series of two-level systems. Here, the resulting reduced-order model enabled an accurate determination of electrical resistivity and electron thermal conductivity based on the scattering of electrons in a two-level system across a Bloch-potential-based virtual crystal approximation. Model results are compared to experimental four-point probe electrical resistivity measurements between 300 K and 700 K for Al 0.3 CoCrCuFeNi, CoCrFeMnNi, (CoCrFeMnNi) 0.98 W 0.02 , (CoCrFeMnNi) 0.95 W 0.05 , and Nb 4 Ta 4 V 3 Ti, for model validation.

Analytical model↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Updates on the Predictive Materials Modeling Software Tools

Updates on NASA‘s efforts to build a Predictive Material Modeling (PMM) framework from the micro-scale to the macro-scale are presented in this abstract. The PMM effort is part of the Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) project under NASA’s Game Changing Development (GCD) program. To reduce the need for extensive testing and accelerate the design cycle process, ESM is developing simulation and modeling tools that enable the characterization of the properties of thermal protection materials and their response to extremely hot plasma. The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software has been developed to compute effective material properties and perform material response simulations on digitized microstructures of porous media. PuMA is able to import three-dimensional digital images obtained from X-ray microtomography or to generate artificial microstructures that mimic real materials. PuMA also provides a module for interactive 3D visualizations. Version 3, which was recently released as open-source, includes modules to compute simple morphological properties such as porosity, volume fractions, pore diameter, and specific surface area. Additional capabilities include the determination of effective thermal and electrical conductivity (both radiative and solid conduction - including the ability to simulate local anisotropy for the latter); effective diffusivity and tortuosity from the continuum to the rarefied regime; techniques to determine the local material orientation, as well as mechanical properties (elasticity coefficients), and permeability. Computed properties are then used to inform a macro-scale material response model, such as those implemented in the Porous material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO) software developed within ESM. The computational model in PATO is a generic heat and mass transfer model for porous reactive materials containing several solid phases and a single gas phase. The detailed chemical interactions occurring between the solid phases and the gas phase are modeled at the pore scale, assuming Local Thermal Equilibrium. Recent efforts include the development of a mechanical erosion model as well as a unified model allowing an intrinsic coupling between fluid and material. Comparison to flight data (Mars Science Laboratory [MSL] Entry Descent and Landing Instrument [MEDLI] and Mars 2020 MEDLI2) is critical in order to validate these computational tools. Examples of ablative material response using the code will be presented, including 3D simulations of the full-scale heatshield of the MSL capsule. The simulations demonstrated the ability of the modern material response code, PATO, to handle the material response of geometrically complex and large domains through the use of massively parallel computations.

material modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physical, socio-psychological, and behavioural determinants of household energy consumption in the UK

Determining which attitudes and behaviours predict household energy consumption can help accelerate the low-carbon energy transition. Conventional approaches in this domain are limited, often relying on survey methods that produce data on individuals’ motivations and self-reported activities without pairing these with actual energy consumption records, which are particularly hard to collect for large, nationally representative samples. This challenge precludes the development of empirical evidence on which attitudes and behaviours influence patterns of energy consumption, thus limiting the extent to which these can inform energy interventions or conservation programs. This study demonstrates a novel methodology for estimating energy consumption in the absence of actual energy records by using a large, publicly available data set of energy consumption in the UK. We develop a predictive model using the Smart Energy Research Laboratory (SERL) data portal (with records from nearly 13,000 UK households) and then use this model to predict energy consumption (both electric and gas) for a sample of 1,000 UK householders for which we separately collect over 200 variables relating to climate change attitudes and practices. Our approach uses a set of over 50 independent variables that are shared between the data sets, allowing us to train a model on the SERL data and use it to analyse the relationship between energy consumption and the opinions, motivations, and daily practices of survey respondents. Results show that electricity consumption is influenced by a broader range of factors compared to gas. Household energy use is best explained by physical dwelling characteristics, socio-demographic variables, and certain behavioural and attitudinal measures. Notably, pro-environmental attitudes, frugality, and conscientiousness correlate with lower energy use, while income and consumerism are linked to higher consumption. We discuss how these findings can inform efforts to decarbonise home energy use in the UK.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2004

Defect measurement and analysis of JPL ground software: a case study

Ground software systems at JPL must meet high assurance standards while remaining on schedule due to relatively immovable launch dates for spacecraft that will be controlled by such systems. Toward this end, the Software Quality Improvement (SQI) project's Measurement and Benchmarking (M&B) team is collecting and analyzing defect data of JPL ground system software projects to build software defect prediction models. The aim of these models is to improve predictability with regard to software quality activities. Predictive models will quantitatively define typical trends for JPL ground systems as well as Critical Discriminators (CDs) to provide explanations for atypical deviations from the norm at JPL. CDs are software characteristics that can be estimated or foreseen early in a software project's planning. Thus, these CDs will assist in planning for the predicted degree to which software quality activities for a project are likely to deviation from the normal JPL ground system based on pasted experience across the lab.

defects↗
DOE OSTI2020

DECENTRALIZED APPROACH TO MULTI-ZONE GREY-BOX MODELING FOR MODEL-BASED PREDICTIVE CONTROL

This study aims to improve the easiness of utilizing the grey-box model (i.e., Resistance-Capacitance circuit) for Model-based Predictive Control (MPC). The primary barrier of implementing the MPC is estimating the control-oriented building model that needs to be computationally inexpensive and quick but reasonably precise in predicting building load and indoor conditions. The estimating of the model parameters becomes more complicated when the building scale is larger; e.g., multi-zone building. In this study, a decentralized approach is introduced; each zone is split and individually estimated with measured boundary temperature from adjacent zones integrated into one single system model. The proposed decentralized method is demonstrated with experimental data from a full-scale multi-zone test cell compared with the centralized reference case.

Joe, Jaewan↗
NASA NTRS1977

Atmospheric model development in support of SEASAT. Volume 4: Forecast model sensitivity study

Atmospheric analysis and prediction models of varying (grid) resolution were developed. The models were tested using real observational data for the purpose of assessing the impact of grid resolution on short range numerical weather prediction. The work statement was amended to include the performance of sensitivity tests using a coarse mesh (63 x 63 x 5 level) prediction model in order to identify and order factors which might mask or impair the utility of SEASAT data on short range weather prediction. Such factors included: initial conditions; topography; surface friction; latent heating; diffusion of momentum and temperature; and computational devices such as tendency truncators, pressure smoothers, and temporal filters.

Lewit, H. L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Development of an analytical-numerical model to predict radiant emission or absorption

The development of an analytical-numerical model to predict radiant emission or absorption is discussed. A voigt profile is assumed to predict the spectral qualities of a singlet atomic transition line for atomic species of interest to the OPAD program. The present state of this model is described in each progress report required under contract. Model and code development is guided by experimental data where available. When completed, the model will be used to provide estimates of specie erosion rates from spectral data collected from rocket exhaust plumes or other sources.

Wallace, Tim L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Power Outage During Extreme Weather with EAGLE-I and NWS Datasets

Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, and floods can significantly disrupt power grid systems, leading to electrical outages that result in inconvenience, economic losses, and life-threatening situations. There is a growing need for a robust and precise predictive model to forecast power outages, which will help prioritize emergency response before, during, and after extreme weather events. In this paper, we introduce machine-learning models that predict power outage risk at the state level during and after extreme weather events. We jointly utilized two publicly available datasets: the U.S. historical power outage data collected by the Environment for Analysis of Geo-Located Energy Information (EAGLE-I™) system, and the National Weather Service historical weather alert data sets. We highlight our initial result and discuss future work aimed at enhancing the model's robustness and accuracy for real-world applications.

Lee, Sangkeun (Matt)↗
DOE OSTI2015

A thermodynamic model to predict the aqueous solubility of hydrocarbon mixtures at two-phase hydrate-liquid water equilibrium

In order to understand the fate and transport of hydrocarbons and hydrocarbon mixtures in the deep sea and underlying sediments it requires an accurate determination of the two-phase hydrate (H)-liquid water (L w ) thermodynamic equilibrium in the absence of a free gas phase. In addition to controlling hydrate formation directly from the aqueous phase, the H-L w equilibrium provides the aqueous solubility of dissolving hydrate. The aqueous solubility of hydrocarbon mixture at H-L w equilibrium was calculated based on the van der Waals and Platteeuw statistical thermodynamic model and the Holder model. Langmuir constants were calculated from cell potential parameters obtained from ab initio intermolecular potentials and thus the model contains no fitting parameters. The model accurately predicts pure methane, ethane, and propane experimental H-L w equilibrium solubility data, including new data provided here for methane. Here, we present hydrocarbon solubilities in water and seawater at H-L w equilibrium at deep sea conditions for both methane and a thermogenic mixture based on the methane–ethane–propane ratio from the 2010 Macondo oil spill. We also present model predictions of the proportion of occupied large and small cages at H-L w equilibrium for both systems, as well as hydrocarbon ratios in the hydrate phase for the thermogenic mixture.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Single-nucleon knockout cross sections for reactions producing resonance states at or beyond the drip line

Single-nucleon knockout cross sections from fast secondary beams of the proton-drip-line nuclei 9 C, 13 O, and 17 Ne on a 9 Be target have been studied with emphasis on the production of resonance states. These states were identified by their invariant mass, and resonances with two-, three-, and five-body exit channels were examined. The measured cross sections for these states were compared with eikonal-model predictions using shell-model or variational Monte Carlo spectroscopic factors. The experimental yields were found to be suppressed relative to the model predictions, especially when a well-bound neutron or proton is removed. This suppression exceeds that found systematically in measured inclusive cross sections to particle-bound final states. In neutron knockout from 9 C and 13 O projectiles, this suppression of the unbound ground-state residuals yield is a factor of two to three times larger than that found in the bound final-state studies. Modifications to the structure of these systems due to coupling of the shell-model configurations to the continuum is expected to contribute to this extra suppression, especially when the final state is a near-threshold resonance. Furthermore, other considerations including the role of nuclear dynamics may be required to explain all the observed trends.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗
NASA NTRS2006

Utilizing Traveler Demand Modeling to Predict Future Commercial Flight Schedules in the NAS

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These resulting demand scenarios can be incorporated into future flight schedules, therefore providing a quantifiable demand for flights in the NAS for a range of futures. In addition, new future airline business scenarios are investigated that illustrate when direct flights can replace connecting flights and larger aircraft can be substituted, only when justified by demand.

Viken, Jeff↗
NASA NTRS2007

Using a Magnetic Flux Transport Model to Predict the Solar Cycle

We present the results of an investigation into the use of a magnetic flux transport model to predict the amplitude of future solar cycles. Recently Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman (2006) showed how their dynamo model could be used to accurately predict the amplitudes of the last eight solar cycles and offered a prediction for the next solar cycle - a large amplitude cycle. Cameron & Schussler (2007) found that they could reproduce this predictive skill with a simple 1-dimensional surface flux transport model - provided they used the same parameters and data as Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman. However, when they tried incorporating the data in what they argued was a more realistic manner, they found that the predictive skill dropped dramatically. We have written our own code for examining this problem and have incorporated updated and corrected data for the source terms - the emergence of magnetic flux in active regions. We present both the model itself and our results from it - in particular our tests of its effectiveness at predicting solar cycles.

Lyatskaya, S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Utility of anthesis–silking interval information to predict grain yield under water and nitrogen limited conditions

Delayed silking relative to pollen shed, measured as the anthesis–silking interval (ASI, the period between pollen shed and silking), is a good indicator of response to abiotic stresses in maize ( Zea mays L.). This research was conducted to investigate how ASI is affected by nitrogen (N) and water availability and to assess the utility of ASI to indirectly predict grain yield (GY) under contrasting water and N treatments. Two experiments were conducted in Hancock, WI, in 2018 and 2019. One experiment (Diverse hybrids) included 302 hybrids resulting from the cross of diverse inbred lines by a single tester evaluated at four different treatment levels resulting from combining nonlimited and low N with nonlimited and low water treatments. The second experiment (NSS FAC) included a set of 408 hybrids derived from the cross of biparental doubled-haploid lines from 13 factorial populations and evaluated under nonlimited and low N treatments. Anthesis and silk time in growing degree days, and GY (Mg ha -1 ) were measured. Genomic prediction was assessed using a genomic best linear unbiased prediction model, and predictive ability was calculated as the correlation between genomic predictions and adjusted means in the different treatments. Predictive ability ranged from .15 to .49 for NSS FAC and from .06 to .51 for Diverse hybrids across traits and treatments. The ASI was a good indicator of stress and showed higher heritability than GY in the limited treatments for both experiments; however, it did not improve yield predictability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of COVID-19 related stay-at-home restrictions on residential electricity use and implications for future grid stability

“Stay-at-home” orders and other health precautions enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to substantial changes in residential electricity usage. Here, we conduct a case study to analyze data from 390 apartments in New York City (NYC) to examine the impacts of two key drivers of residential electricity usage: COVID-19 case-loads and the outdoor temperature. We develop a series of regression models to predict two characteristics of residential electricity usage on weekdays: The average occupied apartment’s consumption (kWh) over a 9am-5pm window and the hourly peak demand (Watt) over a 12pm-5pm window. Via a Monte Carlo simulation, we forecast the two usage characteristics under a possible scenario in which stay-at-home orders in NYC, or a similar metropolitan region, coincide with warm summer weather. Under the scenario, the 9am-5pm residential electricity usage on weekdays is predicted to be 15% – 24% higher than under prior, pre-pandemic conditions. This could lead to substantially higher utility costs for residents. Additionally, we predict that the residential hourly peak demand between 12pm and 5pm on weekdays could be 35% – 53% higher than that under pre-pandemic conditions. We conclude that the projected increase in peak demand - which might arise if stay-at-home guidelines coincided with hot weather conditions - could pose grid management challenges, especially for residential feeders. We also note that, if there is a longer lasting shift towards work and study-from-home, utilities will have to rethink load profile considerations. The applications of our predictive models to managing future smart-grid technology are also highlighted.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermal loading effects on chalk hydromechanical behavior for nuclear waste disposal

Safe disposal of heat-generating nuclear waste depends on host rock stability under thermal, hydrological, and mechanical stresses. This study investigates the effect of thermal loading on mechanical behavior of the shallowly buried Ghareb formation chalk through triaxial and hydrostatic constant strain rate and creep tests at temperatures up to 100 ˚C and effective pressures up to 20.7 MPa. Experimental results show that thermal loading reduces the elastic moduli of chalk by 50–75%, and a transition occurs above 60 ˚C where creep rates increase rapidly. Water saturation nearly doubles the thermally induced strain compared to dry conditions and strongly decreases material rigidity. Thermal loading also leads to significant pore pressure increases under undrained conditions and leads to reductions in the apparent permeability during drained conditions. Laboratory experimental data were used to parameterize and develop a preliminary constitutive model for predicting future deformation during repository operations in the Ghareb. The strongly coupled effects – mechanical weakening, fluid pressure fluctuations, and permeability modification – demonstrate that elevated repository temperatures will have a pronounced effect on the near field Ghareb behavior during waste disposal operations. The findings indicate that the coupled interactions must be considered in predictive models and repository design to ensure long-term nuclear waste isolation and safety.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Secondary porosity prediction in complex carbonate reefs using 3D CT scan image analysis and machine learning

Development and preservation of carbonate porosity and permeability are critical to characterizing reservoirs. However, secondary porosity, such as vugs and fractures, are difficult to identify and require collection of expensive wireline tools or core sampling. Wireline logs and cores have traditionally been used to identify the presence of secondary porosity but fail to quantify the contribution to total reservoir porosity. Additionally, advanced wireline logs and core are not readily available for most wells. Dual energy CT scans were collected on whole core from the A-1 Carbonate and Brown Niagaran formations drawn from six wells in northern Michigan. 3D analysis techniques were applied to identify and isolate secondary porosity features. A series of machine learning and data analytics techniques were applied to the dataset to predict secondary porosity features on basic wireline logs. The predictive model successfully predicted secondary porosity with high confidence.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven predictions of complex organic mixture permeation in polymer membranes

Membrane-based organic solvent separations are rapidly emerging as a promising class of technologies for enhancing the energy efficiency of existing separation and purification systems. Polymeric membranes have shown promise in the fractionation or splitting of complex mixtures of organic molecules such as crude oil. Determining the separation performance of a polymer membrane when challenged with a complex mixture has thus far occurred in an ad hoc manner, and methods to predict the performance based on mixture composition and polymer chemistry are unavailable. Here, we combine physics-informed machine learning algorithms (ML) and mass transport simulations to create an integrated predictive model for the separation of complex mixtures containing up to 400 components via any arbitrary linear polymer membrane. We experimentally demonstrate the effectiveness of the model by predicting the separation of two crude oils within 6-7% of the measurements. Integration of ML predictors of diffusion and sorption properties of molecules with transport simulators enables for the rapid screening of polymer membranes prior to physical experimentation for the separation of complex liquid mixtures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗