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At least 1,279 records · Page 71

A modeling comparison of deep greenhouse gas emissions reduction scenarios by 2030 in California

California aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. We compare six energy models that have played various roles in informing the state policymakers in setting climate policy goals and targets. These models adopt a range of modeling structures, including stock-turnover back-casting models, a least-cost optimization model, macroeconomic/macro-econometric models, and an electricity dispatch model. Results from these models provide useful insights in terms of the transformations in the energy system required, including efficiency improvements in cars, trucks, and buildings, electrification of end-uses, low- or zero-carbon electricity and fuels, aggressive adoptions of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), demand reduction, and large reductions of non-energy GHG emissions. Some of these studies also suggest that the direct economic costs can be fairly modest or even generate net savings, while the indirect macroeconomic benefits are large, as shifts in employment and capital investments could have higher economic returns than conventional energy expenditures. These models, however, often assume perfect markets, perfect competition, and zero transaction costs. They also do not provide specific policy guidance on how these transformative changes can be achieved. Greater emphasis on modeling uncertainty, consumer behaviors, heterogeneity of impacts, and spatial modeling would further enhance policymakers' ability to design more effective and targeted policies. Here, this paper presents an example of how policymakers, energy system modelers and stakeholders interact and work together to develop and evaluate long-term state climate policy targets. Lastly, even though this paper focuses on California, the process of dialogue and interactions, modeling results, and lessons learned can be generally adopted across different regions and scales.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Achieving an 80% carbon-free electricity system in China by 2035

Dramatic reductions in solar, wind, and battery storage costs create new opportunities to reduce emissions and costs in China’s electricity sector, beyond current policy goals. This study examines the cost, reliability, emissions, public health, and employment implications of increasing the share of non-fossil fuel (“carbon free”) electricity generation in China to 80% by 2035. The analysis uses state-of-the-art modeling with high resolution load, wind, and solar inputs. The study finds that achieving an 80% carbon free electricity system in China by 2035 could reduce wholesale electricity costs, relative to a current policy baseline, while maintaining high levels of reliability, reducing deaths from air pollution, and increasing employment. In our 80% scenario, wind and solar generation capacity reach 3 TW and battery storage capacity reaches 0.4 TW by 2035, implying a rapid scale up in these resources that will require changes in policy targets, markets and regulation, and land use policies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs

Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends - in part - on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. In this paper, we summarize the results of an expert elicitation survey of 163 of the world's foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties. Under the median scenario, experts anticipate 24-30% reductions by 2030 and 35-41% reductions by 2050 across the three wind applications studied. Costs could be even lower: experts predict a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050. Insights gained through expert elicitation complement other tools for evaluating cost-reduction potential, and help inform policy and planning, R & D and industry strategy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Strengths and Limitations of Governmental Support for Environmental Technology in Japan

In recent years, Japanese government and industry have initiated a wide range of policies, programs, and investment strategies responsive to the growing agenda of domestic and global environmental problems. For the most part, these actions have not been due to any significant domestic envi ronmental political pressure but primarily because of the perception that "green" products and manufacturing methods are simply good business. These strategies have, therefore, been closely linked to export and foreign aid policies of long-term benefit to the Japanese economy. A strength of the Japanese approach to environmental policy is the govern ment's ability to bring together a range of business to create a climate for long-term investment in promising new technologies such as fuel cells and electric vehicles. Because this approach is done to advance industrial policy as much as environmental goals, industrial interests are responding to busi ness opportunities, rather than environmental constraints. The Japanese sys tem is, however, not without its own blind spots and limitations. For exam ple, very little has been done to improve the energy efficiency of consumer products, including automobiles, since the mid 1980s. Japanese industry has so far not demonstrated much awareness of concepts like "design for envi ronment" that imply a fundamental reexamination of manufacturing meth ods and materials. The Japanese response to conservation issues that tend not to have technological solutions or potential for business development has also not been as impressive.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Feed-in Tariffs: Good Practices and Design Considerations

In recent years, feed-in tariff (FIT) activity has focused primarily on revisions to current policies, underscoring the need for stable and predictable, yet flexible, policy environments. This policy brief provides a primer on key FIT design elements, lessons from country experience, and support resources to enable more detailed and country-specific FIT policy design.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Enabling Floating Solar Photovoltaic (FPV) Deployment: Review of Barriers to FPV Deployment in Southeast Asia

The purpose of this report is to improve understanding of the policy landscape for FPV systems and identify potential pathways to create an enabling policy and regulatory environment FPV systems in Southeast Asia. In this literature review, we discuss the case for FPVs in Southeast Asia by presenting the energy context and state of the grid in select Southeast Asia countries and conduct a literature review of existing and potential non-technical barriers to FPV deployment, concluding with potential policy pathways to address some of the barriers identified. Given the lack of extensive literature on the policy and regulatory environment for FPVs and the similarity with other RE technologies, this review adapts lessons from other RE technologies to the FPV context.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Inaugural Symposium of the Institute for Sustainable Energy and Environment, Virginia Commonwealth University

The Inaugural Symposium of the Institute for Sustainable Energy and Environment (ISEE) was held in Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia during April 26 – 28, 2023. The symposium addressed issues and challenges in energy and environment and highlighted the use of clean renewable energy to mitigate the adverse effects of fossil fuels and the greenhouse gases it produces. These issues are complex as the involve educating the public that the climate change is real, it is caused by the use of fossil fuels, it requires scientists and engineers to understand the fundamental science in the production and storage of renewable energy, it requires industries to manufacture and distribute the equipment necessary for commercial application of these technologies, it requires policy makers to put together policies and guidelines to make the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies efficient, and it requires social scientists and educators to address environmental justice issues and create a workforce to sustain the transition. The symposium considered all the above issues with a diverse list of speakers from the federal and state government, industrial partners, and experts from science and technology to social sciences and public policy. Speakers from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, Department of Energy, universities, and non-governmental agencies discussed the challenges and solutions in Plenary as well as Panel sessions. The talks were recorded with permission from the speakers and the panelists and were put in the ISEE website. The participants included students, postdoctoral fellows, and professors from Virginia Commonwealth University and local area Historically Black College and Universities (HBCU) such as Virginia State University and Norfolk State University. The $5000 fund awarded by the Department of Energy were used to support the participation of students, postdoctoral fellows, and faculty from the HBCU institutions. The technical program the list of participants is provided later in the document.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Elaboration of Energy Balance: A Model for the Brazilian States

The energy balance constitutes a powerful management instrument for government agencies, as it offers an overview of the energy situation of the country (or region) and serves as a guide for energy policies and monitoring of these policies. Although Brazil has published the national energy balance for more than half a century, the national publication does not adequately address energy statistics at the level of the states. This occurs either due to the lack of specific data or the absence of total disaggregation. Accordingly, the elaboration and implementation of public policies for the energy sector in the Brazilian states lack consistent energy statistics. Therefore, this paper aims to present a model for the Brazilian states to elaborate the energy balance. The proposed model consists of applying internationally referenced methodologies to develop a user-friendly software, which includes automatic energy unit conversions, different chart styles, high-level data organization, and Sankey diagrams. As a result, the software can be adopted by local governments as a tool to maintain the state energy balance publication periodically, and hence obtain the detailed information necessary to manage and formulate energy policies. The advantage of the software is that it can be operated by non-experts and the energy flow as well as the entire report can be generated automatically. The proposed software was successfully used to generate the energy balance of the Mato Grosso do Sul state.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Dynamic Communication Resource Negotiations

Today's advanced network management systems can automate many aspects of the tactical networking operations within a military domain. However, automation of joint and coalition tactical networking across multiple domains remains challenging. Due to potentially conflicting goals and priorities, human agreement is often required before implementation into the network operations. This is further complicated by incompatible network management systems and security policies, rendering it difficult to implement automatic network management, thus requiring manual human intervention to the communication protocols used at various network routers and endpoints. This process of manual human intervention is tedious, error-prone, and slow. In order to facilitate a better solution, we are pursuing a technology which makes network management automated, reliable, and fast. Automating the negotiation of the common network communication parameters between different parties is the subject of this paper. We present the technology that enables inter-force dynamic communication resource negotiations to enable ad-hoc inter-operation in the field between force domains, without pre-planning. It also will enable a dynamic response to changing conditions within the area of operations. Our solution enables the rapid blending of intra-domain policies so that the forces involved are able to inter-operate effectively without overwhelming each other's networks with in-appropriate or un-warranted traffic. It will evaluate the policy rules and configuration data for each of the domains, then generate a compatible inter-domain policy and configuration that will update the gateway systems between the two domains.

policy negotiation↗

Solar PV Curtailment in Changing Grid and Technological Contexts: Preprint

Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems generate electricity with no marginal costs or emissions. As a result, PV output is almost always prioritized over other fuel sources and delivered to the electric grid. At increasing levels of PV penetration situations arise where PV is curtailed, either because of local supply/demand imbalances or to maintain system flexibility. In 2018, we estimate that about 6.5 million MWh of PV output was curtailed in four key countries: Chile, China, Germany, and the United States. We find that PV curtailment peaks in the spring and fall, when PV output is relatively high but electricity demand is relatively low. Similar to the case of wind, some PV curtailment is attributable to limited transmission capacity connecting sparsely populated solar-heavy regions to load centers.Grid policies generally seek to minimize curtailment because it is viewed as an economic and environmental loss. However, we argue that changing grid and technological contexts warrant new thinking on PV curtailment. In the grid context, as grids integrate more PV and other renewable energy generation, seeking an optimal level of accepted curtailment becomes more efficient than preventing it. In the technological context, emerging technologies such as advanced inverters and low-cost battery storage are making PV systems more flexible. With flexible PV, grid operators can use withheld PV output to provide various non-generation grid services. This withheld PV output is a form of curtailment under prevailing definitions of the term. Hence, policies that aim to minimize curtailment may undercut the ability of grid operators to fully use the emerging capabilities of flexible PV systems. We argue that the changing grid and technological contexts require a re-examination of the curtailment paradigm. We argue that PV output that is withheld to provide grid services is fundamentally different from output that goes unused in response to system constraints. As a result, we propose a more exclusive definition of curtailment as unused PV output rather than the more expansive conventional definition as any reduction in system output from its technical potential. The terminological distinction is more than a question of semantics. Facilitating grid services by withholding PV output may increase the potential value of flexible PV systems to the grid. This shift in thinking may allow grid operators and policymakers to think in terms of PV curtailment management rather than minimization. Effective curtailment management may include policies that increase PV system dispatchability, alternative PV compensation schemes that decouple generator revenue from system output, and policies to increase grid flexibility.

Chile↗

The potential role of a carbon tax in U.S. fiscal reform

This paper examines fiscal reform options in the United States with an intertemporal computable general equilibrium model of the world economy called G-Cubed. Six policy scenarios explore two overarching issues: (1) the effects of a carbon tax under alternative assumptions about the use of the resulting revenue, and (2) the effects of alternative measures that could be used to reduce the budget deficit. We examine a simple excise tax on the carbon content of fossil fuels in the U.S. energy sector starting immediately at $15 per metric ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) and rising at 4 percent above inflation each year through 2050. We investigate policies that allow the revenue from the illustrative carbon tax to reduce the long run federal budget deficit or the marginal tax rates on labor and capital income. We also compare the carbon tax to other means of reducing the deficit by the same amount. We find that the carbon tax will raise considerable revenue: $80 billion at the outset, rising to $170 billion in 2030 and $310 billion by 2050. It also significantly reduces U.S. CO2 emissions by an amount that is largely independent of the use of the revenue. By 2050, annual CO2 emissions fall by 2.5 billion metric tons (BMT), or 34 percent, relative to baseline, and cumulative emissions fall by 40 BMT through 2050. The use of the revenue affects both broad economic impacts and the composition of GDP across consumption, investment and net exports. In most scenarios, the carbon tax lowers GDP slightly, reduces investment and exports, and increases imports. The effect on consumption varies across policies and can be positive if households receive the revenue as a lump sum transfer. Using the revenue for a capital tax cut, however, is significantly different than the other policies. In that case, investment booms, employment rises, consumption declines slightly, imports increase, and overall GDP rises significantly relative to baseline through about 2040. Thus, a tax reform that uses a carbon tax to reduce capital taxes would achieve two goals: reducing CO2 emissions significantly and expanding short-run employment and the economy. We examine three ways to reduce the deficit by an equal amount. We find that raising marginal tax rates on labor income has advantages over raising tax rates on capital income or establishing a carbon tax. A labor tax increase leaves GDP close to its baseline, reduces consumption very slightly and expands net exports slightly. Investment remains essentially unchanged. In contrast, a capital tax increase causes a significant and persistent drop in investment and much larger reductions in GDP. A carbon tax falls between the two: it lowers GDP more than a labor tax increase because it reduces investment. However, its effects on investment and GDP are more moderate than the capital tax increase, and it also significantly reduces CO2 emissions. A carbon tax thus offers a way to help reduce the deficit and improve the environment, and do so with minimal disturbance to overall economic activity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Designing, implementing and monitoring social impact mitigation strategies: Lessons from Forest Industry Structural Adjustment Packages

Social impact mitigation strategies are implemented by the proponents of policies and projects with the intent of reducing the negative, and increasing the positive social impacts of their activities, and facilitating the achievement of policy/project goals. Evaluation of mitigation strategies is critical to improving their future success and cost-effectiveness. This paper evaluates two Forest Industry Structural Adjustment Packages (FISAP) implemented in Australia in the 1990s to 2000s as part of broader policy changes that reduced access to timber from publicly owned native forests. It assesses the effectiveness of the structure, design, implementation and monitoring of the FISAPs, and highlights the interactions between these four elements and their influence on social impacts. The two FISAPs were found to be effective in terms of reducing negative impacts, encouraging positive impacts and contributing towards policy goals, although they did not mitigate negative impacts in all cases, and sometimes interacted with external factors and additional policy changes to contribute to significant short and long term negative impacts. -- Highlights: ► Mitigation strategies aim to reduce negative and enhance positive social impacts ► Mitigation strategy design, implementation, and monitoring are critical to success ► Effective mitigation enhanced the capacity of recipients to respond to change ► Mitigation strategies influenced multiple interacting positive and negative impacts ► Success required good communication, transparency, support, resources and timing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Community participation in Health Impact Assessment. A scoping review of the literature

Currently, the engagement of local communities in Health Impact Assessment is becoming more and more important. A scoping review was performed to take stock of visions, methods and experiences in this field. A combined Scopus and Medline search yielded 100 articles in scientific journals. The final selection consisted of 43 papers, including case studies, evaluation studies, reviews, and opinion papers. After analysis, consultation of four experts was performed to check preliminary study outcomes. A grey literature web search was performed to check and complement the results. Results show that community participation is generally considered a core element in HIA. Views as expressed in the papers concern, firstly, the need for and value of local knowledge, secondly, the adherence to or application of democratic values and, thirdly, empowerment of communities. Three categories of methods are used in relation to community participation, often in combination: methods to facilitate knowledge elicitation, to ensure the inclusion of communities in the HIA process, and to build community capacity to participate in policy development. However, the theoretical or practical underpinning of the choice for specific methods is mostly not presented. The experiences described in the papers mainly focus on the access to local knowledge and its usability as a source of evidence in the HIA process. Described effects of community participation are (improved) relations between communities and local agencies, policy makers and professionals and the empowerment of community members. Although these effects are ascribed to community participation, many papers do not provide support for this conclusion beyond the retrospective perception of participants. Expert consultation and additional analysis of the grey literature supported the results derived from the scientific literature and provided more in-depth knowledge. In the grey literature theoretical frameworks, methods and tools for community participation in HIA were more extensively reported as compared to the scientific literature. We conclude that the visions, methods and experiences concerning community participation show that a participative approach may contribute to better, context specific knowledge. It appears that participative HIA has health promotion potential as it helps develop responsive policies. To accomplish this, HIA should, firstly, be better embedded in broader health promotion programmes. Secondly, the methods and approaches for community participation applied in HIA should be theory-informed and well described. The grey literature offers entry points. Finally, more robust and systematic evaluation and research is needed to assess the impact of HIAs on communities and policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives

Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental and social externalities, energy system development will also be influenced by social acceptance and strategic policy choices. All of these uncertainties have important implications for many aspects of economic and environmental sustainability, and climate change in particular. In the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework these uncertainties are structured into five narratives, arranged according to the challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study we explore future energy sector developments across the five SSPs using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and we also provide summary output and analysis for selected scenarios of global emissions mitigation policies. The mitigation challenge strongly corresponds with global baseline energy sector growth over the 21st century, which varies between 40% and 230% depending on final energy consumer behavior, technological improvements, resource availability and policies. The future baseline CO 2 -emission range is even larger, as the most energy-intensive SSP also incorporates a comparatively high share of carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and vice versa. Inter-regional disparities in the SSPs are consistent with the underlying socioeconomic assumptions; these differences are particularly strong in the SSPs with large adaptation challenges, which have little inter-regional convergence in long-term income and final energy demand levels. The scenarios presented do not include feedbacks of climate change on energy sector development. The energy sector SSPs with and without emissions mitigation policies are introduced and analyzed here in order to contribute to future research in climate sciences, mitigation analysis, and studies on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The role of corporate investment in start-ups for climate-tech innovation

Enabling and accelerating the full potential of energy innovation is a critical component of the global policy response to climate change. Incentivizing start-ups advancing climate-tech (i.e., products and services related to clean energy and climate change), has become central to innovation policy because start-ups are nimble (compared to incumbents), can quickly focus on bringing new technologies to market, and simultaneously create new jobs and catalyze local industries. Public policies to support climate-tech start-ups and efforts such as Mission Innovation tend to focus on increasing government spending (e.g., grants for research and development) or on creating demand pull for new technologies (e.g., feed-in-tariffs). But to go from research and development to widespread adoption of new products and services, start-ups need to grow and scale, and this requires support from private investors. Yet, research on how different investors can shape the direction of climate innovation—and how public policy can incentivize private investment in climate-tech start-ups to support the public good—is surprisingly sparse.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A systematic review of building energy sufficiency towards energy and climate targets

Among the sufficiency, efficiency, and renewable frameworks for reducing energy use and energy-related carbon emissions, Building Energy Sufficiency (BES) is gaining attention from policy makers and engineers. Despite the significant role of the building sector in the success of national energy and climate plans, there is a lack of research on the drivers, technologies, and effective policy instruments required to achieve BES in the building operational phase. To fill this gap, this study presents a systematic review of the definition and paradigm of BES and concludes that BES should address both occupant demand and energy or emissions requirements simultaneously. The characteristics of occupant demand in building services are divided into four dimensions: time and space, quality and quantity, control and adjustment, and flexibility. Technical options regarding the building architecture, the envelope system, and the building energy system are reviewed. Finally, policy implications and recommendations are discussed. As a result, the multiple benefits and multidisciplinary nature of BES justify further research and accelerated policy implementation in developed and developing countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗