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At least 1,279 records · Page 71

Modeling the value of integrated U.S. and Canadian power sector expansion

The U.S.-Canadian power system has evolved into a highly integrated grid. Cross-border transmission and coordination of system operations create an interconnected power system with combined imports and exports of electricity of greater than 77 TWh per year. Currently, more than 5 GW of new international transmission lines are in various stages of permitting and development. These transmission lines may enable even greater integration and coordination of the U.S. and Canadian systems, which can in turn increase the reliability and flexibility of North America's electricity grid and help address challenges associated with integrating high levels of variable renewables. Using a version of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model that incorporates Canada, this analysis quantifies the differences in the evolution of the power system under scenarios in which cross-border transmission capacity is restricted to today's levels, and scenarios in which new transmission is less restricted. These impacts are analyzed under a 'business-as-usual' reference scenario and a scenario in which deep cuts in power sector carbon dioxide emissions levels are achieved. A set of key impact metrics is analyzed, including 1) the composition of generating capacity by technology, 2) system costs, 3) wholesale electricity prices, 4) international electricity exports and imports, 5) transmission capacity, and 6) carbon dioxide emission levels. When new cross-border transmission is not allowed, the United States needs additional capacity (primarily natural gas and renewable energy) to meet domestic needs, while total Canadian capacity is lower because less capacity is needed to export to the United States. This effect is amplified under the carbon cap scenario. Impacts vary on a regional basis, largely due to the different relative sizes of the generation portfolio between countries and regions and the relative impact from cross-border electricity trade. The total impact from restricting cross-border trade on carbon emissions and average wholesale electricity prices is limited, due to the relative size of the domestic power systems and the cross-border trade volume. Lastly, cross-border transmission capacity is projected to more than double under the unrestricted transmission capacity scenarios, which exceeds the rate of projected domestic transmission capacity additions in each country.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Accelerating room air conditioner efficiency in India: Grid, economic, and policy implications through 2035

India is poised for a rapid surge in space cooling demand, driven by rising incomes, urbanization, and intensifying heat. Between 2025 and 2035, the country is expected to add 130–150 million new room air conditioners (ACs). If Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) continue to improve at the historical rate of 2–3 % annually, room ACs alone could contribute over 180 GW to peak electricity demand by 2035-nearly 30 % of the projected national total. This study evaluates the impact of an accelerated MEPS trajectory, proposing to raise the 1-star threshold to ISEER 5.0 by 2027, ISEER 6.3 by 2030, and ISEER 7.4 by 2033. Drawing on engineering cost analysis, stock turnover modeling, and retail pricing data, we find that this pathway could reduce peak demand by over 60 GW, save 118 TWh of electricity annually, avoid 49 MtCO₂ of electricity-related emissions per year, avert ₹7.5 trillion (∼US$85 billion) in power system investments, and yield ₹0.7–2.3 trillion (∼US$8–26 billion) in net consumer savings by 2035. Contrary to affordability concerns, empirical trends show that higher efficiency does not increase AC prices. These results highlight the value of ambitious MEPS as a cost-effective strategy for improving grid reliability, reducing emissions, and advancing consumer welfare in emerging economies.

Abhyankar, Nikit↗

Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices

A large body of transport sector-focused research recognizes the complexity of human behavior in relation to mobility. Yet, global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which are widely used to evaluate the costs, potentials, and consequences of different greenhouse gas emission trajectories over the medium-to-long term, typically represent behavior and the end use of energy as a simple rational choice between available alternatives, even though abundant empirical evidence shows that real-world decision making is more complex and less routinely rational. This paper demonstrates the value of incorporating certain features of consumer behavior in IAMs, focusing on light-duty vehicle (LDV) purchase decisions. An innovative model formulation is developed to represent heterogeneous consumer groups with varying preferences for vehicle novelty, range, refueling/recharging availability, and variety. The formulation is then implemented in the transport module of MESSAGE-Transport, a global IAM, although it also has the generic flexibility to be applied in energy-economy models with varying set-ups. Comparison of conventional and behaviorally-realistic model runs with respect to vehicle purchase decisions shows that consumer preferences may slow down the transition to alternative fuel (low-carbon) vehicles. Consequently, stronger price-based incentives and/or non-price based measures may be needed to transform the global fleet of passenger vehicles, at least in the initial market phases of novel alternatives. Otherwise, the mitigation burden borne by other transport sub-sectors and other energy sectors could be higher than previously estimated. Moreover, capturing behavioral features of energy consumers in global IAMs increases their usefulness to policy makers by allowing a more realistic assessment of a more diverse suite of policies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Coupled management of electric vehicle workplace charging and office building loads

Significant building energy savings are realized through heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) setpoint adjustment and daylighting control. Workplace charging (WPC) enables colocation of electric vehicles (EVs) with office building loads. We proposed managing energy use of workplace EV charging and the office building and determined the number of EVs that building energy savings can facilitate charging. We simulated building energy savings in typical medium offices in Chicago IL, Baltimore MD, and Houston TX, spanning three US climate regions. Considering the EV hosting capacity of the saved building energy and travel patterns of roundtrip commuting, we minimized EV charging costs under time-of-use electricity pricing. Managed WPC can reduce charging electricity bills compared to first-come, first-served charging. The ratio of EVs to chargers, the coincident period of commuters’ dwell time and lower electricity prices, and the number of EVs in the office impacted the economic benefits achieved through charging management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Smart Charging of Fleet and Personal Electric Vehicles through Joint Vehicle-to-Grid Optimization

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption accelerates, vehicle-to-grid (V2G) strategies offer advantages over unmanaged charging (V0G) by enhancing grid stability, reducing fleet operation costs, and supporting integration of variable generation resources. This research develops a day-ahead optimization framework linked with agent-based simulations to evaluate coordinated V2G participation by fleet and personal EVs under 5 energy-pricing settings in Austin, Texas. Three scenarios (V0G, fleet-only V2G, and joint-V2G) are examined, considering real-time price and grid profiles, health-damage costs, and operational constraints for both fleet and personal EVs. Results show how V2G scenarios shift fleet EV charging to mid-day while enabling strategic battery-discharge during evening peaks, mitigating grid stress and lowering EV energy costs. V2G delivers close to 80% energy-cost savings for a 2000-EV fleet in Austin on grid-stressed days, with 55% lower charging pollutant outputs. Joint-V2G amplifies system-level benefits by complementing fleet discharge, but smart-charging equipment costs can offset those benefits.

Electric vehicle↗

Production of high-quality polyethylene (PE) films from post-consumer shrink wrap with solvent targeted recovery and precipitation (STRAP)

The solvent-targeted recovery and precipitation (STRAP™) process separates polymers from contaminants present in the feedstock. In this work, we demonstrate the recyclability of a post-consumer waste (PCW) shrink wrap that contains inks, adhesives, and paper using STRAP. We produced a clear rPE cast film from the PCR shrink wrap with no visual contamination from paper or inks. STRAP decreased the ash content from 0.96 wt% to 0.24 wt%. A techno-economic analysis (TEA) shows that a STRAP plant processing 50,000 metric tons annually of shrink wrap waste (purchased at $\$0.25$/kg) containing 85 wt% PE can achieve an IRR of 16.2% when selling rPE at $\$1.30$/kg, an IRR of 10.7% with an rPE price of $\$1.00$/kg, or an IRR of 3.79% with an rPE price of $\$0.70$/kg. Furthermore, the life cycle assessment (LCA) shows a 64% reduction in global warming potential (kg CO 2 equivalent) when compared to the production of virgin LDPE. As a result, this work shows how feedstocks with insoluble impurities can be recycled using STRAP on a large scale.

Radkevich, Elizaveta [University of Wisconsin-Madi↗

Process Intensification for the Biological Production of the Fuel Precursor Butyric Acid from Biomass

The production of fuels from lignocellulosic biomass is key to reduce our reliance on petroleum and to promote a sustainable bioeconomy. Butyric acid (BA) is a promising chemical precursor for the production of renewable diesel and jet fuels. BA can be biologically produced from lignocellulosic sugars. However, challenges associated with product selectivity and recovery must be overcome to achieve industrially relevant metrics. Here, we evaluate various fermentation configurations and demonstrate near-homo-butyrate production by using the biocatalyst Clostridium tyrobutyricum. We also develop an advanced in situ product recovery process based on hybrid extraction-distillation (HED-ISPR) and conduct techno-economic analyses and life cycle assessments. We demonstrate that the HED-ISPR process lowers the overall capital and operating expenses and environmental impact compared to other traditional fermentation processes. Overall, BA minimum product selling price from biomass is 55% of the current BA selling price from petroleum, a significant decrease toward viable renewable fuel production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Rye-soybean double-crop: planting method and N fertilization effects in the North Central US

Double-cropping winter rye cover crops (CC) with soybean in the North Central US could help with the global effort to sustainably intensify agriculture. Studies addressing the management of these systems are limited. Therefore, a field study was conducted from 2017 to 2019 in Central Iowa, US to evaluate winter rye CC biomass production, aboveground N accumulation, estimated economics, estimated within-field energy balance and estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under three N application rates (0, 60, 120 kg N ha –1 ) and three planting methods (pre- and post-harvest broadcast and post-harvest drilling). Averaged over N rates, all planting methods resulted in >5.0 Mg ha –1 year –1 rye aboveground biomass dry matter. Averaged over the 2-year study and compared with unfertilized treatments, applying 60 kg N ha –1 produced 1.1 Mg ha –1 more aboveground biomass (6.1 vs 5.0 Mg ha –1 ), accumulated 30 kg ha –1 more N in aboveground biomass (88 vs 58 kg N ha –1 ), and led to 20 GJ ha –1 more net energy. Biomass production was not significantly higher with 120 kg N ha –1 compared with the 60 kg N ha –1 rate. Even when accounting for an estimated 0.75 Mg ha –1 of above ground rye biomass left in the field after harvesting, more N was removed than applied at the 60 kg N ha –1 rate. The minimum rye prices over the 2-year study needed for double-cropping winter rye CC to be profitable (breakeven prices) averaged $117 and $104 Mg –1 for the 0 and 60 kg N ha –1 rates, which factors in estimated soybean yield reductions in 2019 compared with local averages but not off-site transportation. GHG emissions were estimated to increase approximately threefold between the unfertilized and 60 kg N ha –1 rates without considering bioenergy offsets. While environmental tradeoffs need further study, results suggest harvesting fertilized rye CC biomass before planting soybean is a promising practice for the North Central US to maximize total crop and net energy production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Refinery Perspective on Decarbonizing with Marine Biofuels

This work seeks to understand what biofuel production pathways a refinery might prefer to produce very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) for marine applications. A comprehensive refinery optimization model was modified to allow for (1) direct blending of soy biodiesel, renewable diesel, Fischer-Tropsch diesel, and several pyrolysis oils and (2) indirect blending of all pyrolysis oils via co-processing in a fluidized catalytic cracker (FCC) and diesel hydrotreater into the marine fuel pool. Results showed that preferred pathways to bio-VLSFO production included co-processing low-quality pyrolysis oil in a FCC to blend the resulting biogenic light cycle oil, directly blending soy biodiesel, and directly blending small quantities of pyrolysis oil. Bio-VLSFO production costs were compared to those of fossil VLSFO subject to different marine fuel demands, benchmark crude oil prices, and biogenic fractions in the finished product. Given benchmark crude oil prices over 60 $/bbl, bio-VLSFO production appeared to be significantly cheaper than fossil VLSFO. Corresponding marginal abatement costs of CO 2 mostly ranging from -300 to 350 $/ton of CO 2 were also determined using a simplified but novel approach to allow for a comparison to other decarbonization strategies. In conclusion, this work indicates that low-sulfur contents in biofuels, relatively relaxed specifications for marine fuels, and current difficulties in meeting VLSFO specifications with crude oils can combine to make bio-VLSFO production cost-effective. Moreover, marine fuels appear to be a good entry point for refiners to start decarbonizing with biofuel pathways that could eventually be extended to other product pools.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Superstructure Optimization of Waste Plastic Pyrolysis, Integrating Thermal, Catalytic, and Plasma Technologies with Machine Learning

Global plastic waste generation exceeds 430 million tonnes per year, yet fewer than 9% are recycled in the United States. Pyrolysis offers a chemical recycling route at scale, but existing techno-economic and life cycle assessments fix product yields to single pure polymers, producing economic and environmental outputs that break down when the feed composition changes. Here, we present a superstructure optimization framework that addresses this by embedding a composition-aware random forest yield predictor, trained on 566 pyrolysis experiments, within a full-scale process simulation. Product distributions update automatically as feed allocation shifts across four reactor chemistries: conventional thermal, catalytic (HZSM-5), thermal oxo-degradation, and nonequilibrium CO2 plasma. The optimal superstructure achieves minimum selling prices of −0.56 to −0.76/kg feed and global warming potentials of −0.276 to −0.322 kg CO2-eq/kg feed across four commodity price scenarios, confirming profitable, carbon-negative operation without tipping fees. Carbon abatement costs of $\$$0.46 to $\$$1.25/kg CO2-eq are competitive with direct air capture. Sensitivity analysis shows that the catalytic-plasma split fraction is the single largest driver of both economic and climate performance, while hydrocracking allocation in the wax upgrading stage is emission-neutral across the full variable range. Mixed plastic waste streams, evaluated as composition-variable feedstocks rather than pure resins, are profitable and carbon-negative across realistic market conditions. These results give a quantitative basis for reactor selection, circular economy investment, and policy design targeting chemical recycling on a large scale.

Life cycle assessment↗

Carbon-Negative Biofuel Production

Achievement of the 1.5 °C limit for global temperature increase relies on the large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. In this article, we explore two CDR technologies: soil carbon sequestration (SCS), and carbon capture and storage (CCS) integrated with cellulosic biofuel production. These CDR technologies are applied as part of decentralized biorefinery systems processing corn stover and unfertilized switchgrass grown in riparian zones in the Midwestern United States. Cover crops grown on corn-producing lands are chosen from the SCS approach, and biogenic CO 2 in biorefineries is captured, transported by pipeline, and injected into saline aquifers. The decentralized biorefinery system using SCS, CCS, or both can produce carbon-negative cellulosic biofuels (≤-22.2 gCO 2 MJ –1 ). Meanwhile, biofuel selling prices increase by 15–45% due to CDR costs. Economic incentives (e.g., cover crop incentives and/or a CO 2 tax credit) can mitigate price increases caused by CDR technologies. Lastly, a combination of different CDR technologies in decentralized biorefinery systems is the most efficient method for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, and its total GHG mitigation potential in the Midwest is 0.16 GtCO 2 year –1 .

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Cost and Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Implications of Integrating Biogas Upgrading and Carbon Capture Technologies in Cellulosic Biorefineries

We discuss gaseous streams in biorefineries that have been undervalued and underutilized. In cellulosic biorefineries, coproduced biogas is assumed to be combusted alongside lignin to generate process heat and electricity. Biogas can instead be upgraded to compressed biomethane and used as a transportation fuel. Capturing CO 2 -rich streams generated in biorefineries can also contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation goals. We explore the economic and life-cycle GHG impacts of biogas upgrading and CO 2 capture and storage (CCS) at ionic liquid-based cellulosic ethanol biorefineries using biomass sorghum. Without policy incentives, biorefineries with biogas upgrading systems can achieve a comparable minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) and reduced GHG footprint ($1.38/liter gasoline equivalent (LGE) and 12.9 gCO 2e /MJ) relative to facilities that combust biogas onsite ($1.34/LGE and 24.3 gCO 2e /MJ). Incorporating renewable identification number (RIN) values advantages facilities that upgrade biogas relative to other options (MESP of $0.72/LGE). Incorporating CCS increases the MESP but dramatically decreases the GHG footprint (-21.3 gCO 2e /MJ for partial, -110.7 gCO 2e /MJ for full CCS). The addition of CCS also decreases the cost of carbon mitigation to as low as $52-$78/t CO 2 , depending on the assumed fuel selling price, and is the lowest-cost option if both RIN and California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits are incorporated.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Synthetic Methanol/Fischer–Tropsch Fuel Production Capacity, Cost, and Carbon Intensity Utilizing CO 2 from Industrial and Power Plants in the United States

Captured CO 2 is a potential feedstock to produce fuel/chemicals using renewable electricity as the energy source. In this study, we explored resource availability and synergies by region in the United States and conducted cost and environmental analysis to identify unique opportunities in each region to inform possible regional and national actions for carbon capture and utilization development. This study estimated production cost of synthetic methanol and Fischer–Tropsch (FT) fuels by using CO 2 captured from the waste streams emitted from six industrial [ethanol, ammonia, natural gas (NG) processing, hydrogen, cement, and iron/steel production plants] and two power generation (coal and NG) processes across the United States. The results showed that a total of 1594 million metric ton per year of waste CO 2 can be captured and converted into 85 and 319 billion gallons of FT fuels and methanol, respectively. FT fuels can potentially substitute for 36% of the total petroleum fuels used in the transportation sector in 2018. Technoeconomic analysis shows that the minimum selling prices for synthetic FT fuels and methanol are 1.8–2.8 times the price of petroleum fuel/chemicals, but the total CO 2 reduction potential is 935–1777 MMT/year.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Life Cycle and Techno-Economic Assessment of Algal-Based Biofuels

Techno-economic analyses (TEAs) and life cycle assessments (LCAs) of algal biofuels often focus on locations in suboptimal latitudes for algal cultivation, which can under-represent the sustainability potential of the technology. This study identifies the optimal global productivity potential, environmental impacts, and economic viability of algal biofuels by using validated biophysical and sustainability modeling. The biophysical model simulates growth rates of Scenedesmus obliquusbased on temperature, photoinhibition, and respiration effects at 6685 global locations. Region-specific labor costs, construction factors, and tax rates allow for spatially resolved TEA, while the LCA includes regional impacts of electricity, hydrogen, and nutrient markets across ten environmental categories. The analysis identifies optimal locations for algal biofuel production in terms of environmental impacts and economic viability which are shown to follow biomass yields. Modeling results highlight the global variability of productivity with maximum yields ranging between 24.8 and 27.5 g m -2 d -1 in equatorial regions. Environmental impact results show favorable locations tracked with low-carbon electricity grids, with the well-to-wheels global warming potential (GWP) ranging from 31 to 45 g CO 2eq MJ -1 in South America and Central Africa. When including direct land use change impacts, the GWP ranged between 44 and 55 g CO 2eq MJ -1 in these high-productivity regions. Low-carbon electricity also favors air quality and eutrophication impacts. The TEA shows that minimum algal fuel prices of $\$1.89$-$\$2.15$ per liter of gasoline-equivalent are possible in southeast Asia and Venezuela. Furthermore, this discussion focuses on the challenges and opportunities to reduce fuel prices and the environmental impacts of algal biofuels in various global regions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Target Cultivation and Financing Parameters for Sustainable Production of Fuel and Feed from Microalgae

Production of economically competitive and environmentally sustainable algal biofuel faces technical challenges that are subject to high uncertainties. Here we identify target values for algal productivity and financing conditions required to achieve a biocrude selling price of $\$5$ per gallon and beneficial environmental impacts. A modeling framework—combining process design, techno-economic analysis, life cycle assessment, and uncertainty analysis—was applied to two conversion pathways: (1) “fuel only (HTL)”, using hydrothermal liquefaction to produce biocrude, heat and power, and (2) “fuel and feed”, using wet extraction to produce biocrude and lipid-extracted algae, which can substitute components of animal and aqua feeds. Our results suggest that with supporting policy incentives, the “fuel and feed” scenario will likely achieve a biocrude selling price of less than $\$5$ per gallon at a productivity of 39 g/m 2 /day, versus 47 g/m 2 /day for the “fuel only (HTL)” scenario. Furthermore, if lipid-extracted algae are used to substitute fishmeal, the process has a 50 percent probability of reaching $\$5$ per gallon with a base case productivity of 23 g/m 2 /day. As a result, scenarios with improved economics were associated with beneficial environmental impacts for climate change, ecosystem quality, and resource depletion, but not for human health.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

CO 2 Accounting and Risk Analysis for CO 2 Sequestration at Enhanced Oil Recovery Sites

Using CO2 in enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) is a promising technology for emissions management because CO2-EOR can dramatically reduce sequestration costs in the absence of emissions policies that include incentives for carbon capture and storage. This study develops a multiscale statistical framework to perform CO2 accounting and risk analysis in an EOR environment at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU), Texas. A set of geostatistical- based Monte Carlo simulations of CO2-oil/gas-water flow and transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for global sensitivity and statistical analysis of the major risk metrics: CO2/water injection/production rates, cumulative net CO2 storage, cumulative oil/gas productions, and CO2 breakthrough time. The median and confidence intervals are estimated for quantifying uncertainty ranges of the risk metrics. A response-surface-based economic model has been derived to calculate the CO2-EOR profitability for the FWU site with a current oil price, which suggests that approximately 31% of the 1000 realizations can be profitable. If government carbon-tax credits are available, or the oil price goes up or CO2 capture and operating expenses reduce, more realizations would be profitable. The results from this study provide valuable insights for understanding CO2 storage potential and the corresponding environmental and economic risks of commercial-scale CO2- sequestration in depleted reservoirs.

Dai, Zhenxue↗

Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios

The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO 2 emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21 st century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that apply a price to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. Finally, by contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Floating Photovoltaic Systems: Assessing the Technical Potential of Photovoltaic Systems on Man-Made Water Bodies in the Continental United States

We report that floating photovoltaic (FPV) systems, also called floatovoltaics, are a rapidly growing emerging technology application in which solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are sited directly on water. The water-based configuration of FPV systems can be mutually beneficial: Along with providing such benefits as reduced evaporation and algae growth, it can lower PV operating temperatures and potentially reduce the costs of solar energy generation. Although there is growing interest in FPV, to date there has been no systematic assessment of technical potential in the continental United States. We provide the first national-level estimate of FPV technical potential using a combination of filtered, large-scale datasets, site-specific PV generation models, and geospatial analytical tools. We quantify FPV co-benefits and siting considerations, such as land conservation, coincidence with high electricity prices, and evaporation rates. Our results demonstrate the potential of FPV to contribute significantly to the U.S. electric sector, even using conservative assumptions. A total of 24?419 man-made water bodies, representing 27% of the number and 12% of the area of man-made water bodies in the contiguous United States, were identified as being suitable for FPV generation. FPV systems covering just 27% of the identified suitable water bodies could produce almost 10% of current national generation. Lastly, many of these eligible bodies of water are in water-stressed areas with high land acquisition costs and high electricity prices, suggesting multiple benefits of FPV technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗