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At least 1,279 records · Page 71

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2016

Rooftop Solar Photovoltaic Technical Potential in the United States

How much energy could we generate if PV modules were installed on all of the suitable roof area in the nation? To answer this question, we first use GIS methods to process a lidar dataset and determine the amount of roof area that is suitable for PV deployment in 128 cities nationwide, containing 23% of U.S. buildings, and provide PV-generation results for a subset of those cities. We then extend the insights from that analysis to the entire continental United States. We develop two statistical models -- one for small buildings and one for medium and large buildings -- and populate them with geographic variables that correlate with rooftop's suitability for PV. We simulate the productivity of PV installed on the suitable roof area, and present the technical potential of PV on both small buildings and medium/large buildings for every state in the continental US. Within the 128 cities covered by lidar data, 83% of small buildings have a location suitable for a PV installation, but only 26% of the total rooftop area of small buildings is suitable for development. The sheer number of buildings in this class, however, gives small buildings the greatest technical potential. Small building rooftops could accommodate 731 GW of PV capacity and generate 926 TWh/year of PV energy, approximately 65% of rooftop PV's total technical potential. We conclude by summing the PV-generation results for all building sizes and therefore answering our original question, estimating that the total national technical potential of rooftop PV is 1,118 GW of installed capacity and 1,432 TWh of annual energy generation. This equates to 39% of total national electric-sector sales.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

System and method for extracting dominant orientations from a scene

In one embodiment, a method of identifying the dominant orientations of a scene comprises representing a scene as a plurality of directional vectors. The scene may comprise a three-dimensional representation of a scene, and the plurality of directional vectors may comprise a plurality of surface normals. The method further comprises determining, based on the plurality of directional vectors, a plurality of orientations describing the scene. The determined plurality of orientations explains the directionality of the plurality of directional vectors. In certain embodiments, the plurality of orientations may have independent axes of rotation. The plurality of orientations may be determined by representing the plurality of directional vectors as lying on a mathematical representation of a sphere, and inferring the parameters of a statistical model to adapt the plurality of orientations to explain the positioning of the plurality of directional vectors lying on the mathematical representation of the sphere.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Path scanning for the detection of anomalous subgraphs and use of DNS requests and host agents for anomaly/change detection and network situational awareness

A system, apparatus, computer-readable medium, and computer-implemented method are provided for detecting anomalous behavior in a network. Historical parameters of the network are determined in order to determine normal activity levels. A plurality of paths in the network are enumerated as part of a graph representing the network, where each computing system in the network may be a node in the graph and the sequence of connections between two computing systems may be a directed edge in the graph. A statistical model is applied to the plurality of paths in the graph on a sliding window basis to detect anomalous behavior. Data collected by a Unified Host Collection Agent ("UHCA") may also be used to detect anomalous behavior.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Estimating Highway Volumes Using Vehicle Probe Data - Proof of Concept: Preprint

This paper examines the feasibility of using sampled commercial probe data in combination with validated continuous counter data to accurately estimate vehicle volume across the entire roadway network, for any hour during the year. Currently either real time or archived volume data for roadways at specific times are extremely sparse. Most volume data are average annual daily traffic (AADT) measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). Although methods to factor the AADT to hourly averages for typical day of week exist, actual volume data is limited to a sparse collection of locations in which volumes are continuously recorded. This paper explores the use of commercial probe data to generate accurate volume measures that span the highway network providing ubiquitous coverage in space, and specific point-in-time measures for a specific date and time. The paper examines the need for the data, fundamental accuracy limitations based on a basic statistical model that take into account the sampling nature of probe data, and early results from a proof of concept exercise revealing the potential of probe type data calibrated with public continuous count data to meet end user expectations in terms of accuracy of volume estimates.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Studying fish near ocean energy devices using underwater video

The effects of energy devices on fish populations are not well-understood, and studying the interactions of fish with tidal and instream turbines is challenging. To address this problem, we have evaluated algorithms to automatically detect fish in underwater video and propose a semi-automated method for ocean and river energy device ecological monitoring. The key contributions of this work are the demonstration of a background subtraction algorithm (ViBE) that detected 87% of human-identified fish events and is suitable for use in a real-time system to reduce data volume, and the demonstration of a statistical model to classify detections as fish or not fish that achieved a correct classification rate of 85% overall and 92% for detections larger than 5 pixels. Specific recommendations for underwater video acquisition to better facilitate automated processing are given. The recommendations will help energy developers put effective monitoring systems in place, and could lead to a standard approach that simplifies the monitoring effort and advances the scientific understanding of the ecological impacts of ocean and river energy devices.

Matzner, Shari↗

DOE OSTI2018

Fermi-Teller Theory of Low Velocity Ionization Losses Applied to Monopoles

Recently there has developed a renewed interest in the ionization losses of slow monopoles. An excellent summary of the literature is contained in a paper of Ahlen and Kinoshital (hereafter referred to as A.K.). A.K. have derived lower bounds for the ionization losses of a slow monopole passing through matter. However, they neglected the effects of an energy gap, in insulating materials, on the excitation of atomic electrons. Using the Thomas-Fermi statistical model of atomic wave functions, we have calculated lower bounds for ionization losses in "insulators" including effects due to an energy gap. The Fermi-Teller theory 2 (hereafter referred-to as F.T.) was originally used to predict the stopping, by ionization losses, of slow charged particles in materials. The theory is based on a calculation of the energy lost to a uniform "Fermi sea". However, the authors note that the actual "Fermi velocity" cancels out in the derivation. Therefore their calculated results also apply to a "Thomas-Fermi" atom, in which each volume element is considered to be a Fermi sea filled to the top of the potential well with atomic electrons.

Ritson, D.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Path scanning for the detection of anomalous subgraphs and use of DNS requests and host agents for anomaly/change detection and network situational awareness

A system, apparatus, computer-readable medium, and computer-implemented method are provided for detecting anomalous behavior in a network. Historical parameters of the network are determined in order to determine normal activity levels. A plurality of paths in the network are enumerated as part of a graph representing the network, where each computing system in the network may be a node in the graph and the sequence of connections between two computing systems may be a directed edge in the graph. A statistical model is applied to the plurality of paths in the graph on a sliding window basis to detect anomalous behavior. Data collected by a Unified Host Collection Agent (“UHCA”) may also be used to detect anomalous behavior.

Neil, Joshua Charles↗

DOE OSTI2015

Afterpulsing in Silicon Photomultipliers: Impact on the Photodetectors Characterization

Novel generation of silicon-based photodetectors are attractive alternatives to the traditional phototubes. They offer significant advantages but they present new challenges too. Presence of afterpulses may affect many characteristics of the photodetectors. Simple statistical model of afterpulsing is used to evaluate the contribution to the observed dark count rates, to examine the contribution to the pulse height resolution and to demonstrate the modification of the observed timing properties of the SiPMs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Aging and Lifetime Prediction in Grid Applications for Large-Format Commercial Li-Ion Batteries

Due to the growth of electric vehicle and stationary energy storage markets, the production and use of lithium-ion batteries has grown exponentially in recent years. For many of these applications, large-format lithium-ion batteries are being utilized, as large cells have less inactive material relative to their energy capacity and require fewer electrical connections to assemble into packs. And especially for stationary energy storage systems, where energy delivered is the only revenue source, the economics of these battery systems is highly dependent on cell lifetime. However, testing of large-format lithium-ion batteries is time consuming and requires high current channels and large testing chambers, making information on the performance of commercial, large-format lithium-ion batteries hard to come by. Here, accelerated aging test data from four commercial large-format lithium-ion batteries is reported. These batteries span both NMC-Gr and LFP-Gr cell chemistries, pouch and prismatic formats, and a range of cell designs with varying power capabilities. Accelerated aging test results are analyzed to examine both cell performance, in terms of efficiency and thermal response under load, as well as cell lifetime. Cell thermal response is characterized by measuring temperature during cycle aging, which is used to calculated a normalized thermal resistance value that may help estimate both cell cooling needs or to help extrapolate aging test results to different thermal environments. Cell lifetime is evaluated qualitatively, considering simply the average calendar and cycle life across a range of conditions, as well as quantitatively, using statistical modeling and machine-learning methods to identify predictive aging models from the accelerated aging data. These predictive aging models are then used to investigate cell sensitivities to stressors, such as cycling temperature, voltage window, and C-rate, as well as to predict cell lifetime in various stationary storage applications. Results from this work show that cell lifetime and sensitivity to aging conditions varies substantially across commercial cells, necessitating testing for specific cell formats to make quantitative lifetime predictions. That being said, all commercial cells tested here are predicted to reach at least 10-year lifetimes for stationary storage applications. Based on the aging test results and modeling, some cells are expected to be relatively insensitive to temperature and use-case, making them suited for simple use cases with little or no thermal management and simple controls, while the lifetime of other cells could be extended to 20+ years if operated with thermal management and degradation-aware controls.

battery↗

DOE OSTI2015

Use of XRF to characterize pre-Hanford orchards in the 100-OL-1 operable unit - 15717

Prior to 1943, Hanford site included several small towns with approximately 5,000 acres of orchards; at the time lead arsenate (PbHAsO{sub 4}) was the most commonly used pesticide. High concentration of lead and arsenic have been recorded where trees and stumps are still visible. Pre-Hanford orchards have been designated as 100-OL-1 Operable Unit. An Optimization study evaluated optimal counting time and position of the XRF from soils collected at the site. A Pilot Study included the evaluation of a field portable x-ray fluorescence (XRF) analyzer determining if performance results meet quality assurance criteria for cleanup. XRF has only previously been used as a screening tool. Four Decision Units (DUs) are to be analyzed: Ol-14. OL-32. OL-IU6-4 and OL-FR2-1. The DUs vary in size and have had distinct historic activities; such as 46.4 acres OL-14 having a military camp in the 1950's unlike OL-FR2-1 having been disturbed as it is near the F area reactor. Together the DUs provide an adequate representation of the Operable Unit. Screening criteria for lead (250 mg/kg) and arsenic (20 mg/kg). Six samples were collected ranging above, at, and below the screening criteria of 250 mg/kg for Pb and 20 mg/kg for As at the Decision Units OL-14 and OL-IU6-4, and labeled respectively. Samples were hand sieved, homogenized and placed in sample cups. Three replicates were prepared for each sample. Each sample cup was analyzed 3 times for 30 sec. A Standard Reference Material (SRM) was analyzed after every 20 readings. Three samples were selected for 15, 30, 45, 60, 90, 120, 150 and 180 second fixed and variable analysis. Two transects at OL-14, and one at OL-IU6-4 were created by selecting locations 90. around ground zero at distances of 0.5, 1, 2, 4, 8 and 12 feet (16 ft for OL-14). Locations were scanned in triplicate for 60 seconds each. 4 Decision Units spanning roughly 370 acres were chosen to represent 100-OL-1 Operable Unit. 40 locations within each DU were selected using Visual Sample Plan (VSP) with a random start and systematic grid pattern. Each location would be analyzed with 3 replicates and a 60 second count time. The Standard Reference Material (SRM) and blank are analyzed after every 20 counts to ensure accuracy. Data is extracted from XRF to be implemented in GIS for visual representation of site with 1943 and 2013 aerial imagery. Discussion/Conclusion: - XRF provided a good indication of precision and accuracy relative to ICP with a linear correlation R{sup 2} value higher than anticipated at .9735; - MDL proved the detection limit is significantly lower than the screening criteria; - When comparing results from the first 40 locations of OL-14 to the total 80 locations of OL-14, the same variability was seen; - We expect high concentrations of Pb and As to be where past orchards are present though this does not occur as all sites. Significance: - XRF is competent for decision making as values fall within ±20% ICP data; - The highest concentrations are not where expected, which may be an issue for sites outside of Hanford that have had more development; - The size of the DU does not affect the number of samples measured. Future Work: - Verification and validation of the XRF Data (QA/QC); - Revise conceptual site model; - Statistical evaluations to investigate: Estimation of variability in surface soils, appropriate size for DU, and sample size per DU; - Coordinating sample results through CORE; - Displaying sample results in PHOENIX (GIS tool)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reassessing the Origins and Contemporary Relevance of ck Acceptability Parameters: Evolving Perspectives on Similarity

“Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses Applied to Criticality Safety Validation,” introduces sensitivity and uncertainty methods to address challenges in defining and extending areas of applicability for criticality safety validation. These areas are traditionally defined by the bounds or limits on key parameters, but establishing valid ranges and managing complex parameter variations remain challenging. NUREG/CR-6655 introduces ck and other integral indices, as well as concepts such as the completeness of benchmark coverage, to better quantify system similarities. The work proposed herein seeks to evaluate these foundational concepts to ensure that the bounds remain effective in guiding the assessment of similarity and applicability in modern applications. The concept of completeness, along with other parameters envisioned within the framework, serves as an example of the foundational ideas that have been established, though their effectiveness in practice may not be fully understood. Advancements in scripting tools, coupled with the speed and efficiency of modern computing and statistical models, now allow for faster and more thorough assessments than previously possible. These advancements also enable the identification of trends within the data, which could provide additional insight into system behavior and further broaden the scope of previously performed benchmarks. By leveraging these capabilities, we will revisit and expand the scope of these foundational methods to determine whether the necessary elements for robust similarity evaluation are already embedded, partially realized, or remain untapped.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hyper Spectral Anomaly Detection

Anomaly detection is a common machine learning (ML) task with growing importance in the fields of imaging, quality assurance, and multiple security related disciplines. Anomaly detection is more difficult than traditional machine learning methods due to the inherent unlabeled nature of the datasets. Existing anomaly detection architectures commonly face challenges with explainability, retaining information related to the relational structure of the data, and false positive rates. Hyperspectral Imaging Anomaly Detection (HSI) is a statistical model that employs vertex and edge weighted graphs to preserve the data’s relationships on different topographical scales. The model is able to generalize from anomaly detection in 2D images to novel datasets related to cyber-security. Furthermore, the use of multi-spectral and other filtering methods results in fewer false positives and increases the explainability of model predictions. When applying HSI to cyber-security datasets, we are able to successfully detect malicious activity with a relatively high degree of accuracy.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2020

Development of TID Hardness Assurance Methodologies to Capitalize on Statistical Radiation Environment Models

We develop methods for bounding part-to-part variation in TID data. When used in conjunction with statistical radiation environment models, these methods allow development of RHA that deliver estimated piece part reliability for any desired confidence level, moving beyond risk avoidance methodologies based on radiation design margin. Two methods are developed, and their results compared for realistic data.

Total Ionizing Dose↗

NASA NTRS2020

Development of TID Hardness Assurance Methodologies to Capitalize on Statistical Radiation Environment Models

Total ionizing dose↗

NASA NTRS1985

Composite statistical method for modeling wind gusts for aircraft simulation

This paper discusses the application of three statistical methods in combination to model wind gusts for use in aircraft flight simulation. The approach combines principal components analysis, time series analysis and probability distribution model to analyze and simulate wind gust components. Comparisons are given between wind gust components generated by the model and components measured onboard an aircraft.

Schiess, J. R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging transfer learning and leaf spectroscopy for leaf trait prediction with broad spatial, species, and temporal applicability

Accurate and reliable prediction of leaf traits is crucial for understanding plant adaptations to environmental variation, monitoring terrestrial ecosystems, and enhancing comprehension of functional diversity and ecosystem functioning. Currently, various approaches (e.g., statistical, physical models) have been developed to estimate leaf traits through hyperspectral remote sensing and leaf spectroscopy. However, the absence of high-performing, transferable, and stable models across various domains of space, plant functional types (PFTs) and seasons hinder our ability to quantify and comprehend spatiotemporal variations in leaf traits. This study proposes robust and highly transferable models for better predicting leaf traits with hyperspectral reflectance. Initially, three datasets were assembled, pairing common leaf traits — chlorophyll (Chla+b), carotenoids (Ccar), leaf mass per area (LAM), equivalent water thickness (EWT) — with leaf spectra measurements collected across diverse geographic locations in the U.S. and Europe, PFTs, and seasons. Measurements were acquired using spectroradiometers (e.g., ASD FieldSpec 3/4/Pro and SVC HR-1024i) with integrating spheres, leaf clips, and contact probes. Here, we then developed transfer learning-based hybrid models that incorporated the domain knowledge of radiative transfer models (RTMs) through pretraining processes and were well-constrained by fine-tuning with field measurements. Through comparison with other state-of-the-art statistical models, including partial-least squares regression (PLSR) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), as well as pure physical models, we found that the proposed transfer learning models achieved better predictive performance and higher transferability. Specifically, compared to other statistical models and pure RTMs, the transfer learning model exhibited higher coefficient of determination (R 2 ) values with range of 0.01 to 0.79, lower normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) with range of 0.06 % to 33.25 % in model performance. Additionally, the models exhibited improved transferability, with higher R 2 values range from 0.04 to 0.32, lower NRMSE range from 0.08 % to 30.81 %. The findings underscore that transfer learning models through integrating domain knowledge from RTMs and limited observations, can harness the advantages of both RTMs and statistical models and serve as a promising approach for effectively predicting leaf traits.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of precipitation indices in suites of dynamically and statistically downscaled regional climate models over Florida

Abstract The present work evaluates historical precipitation and its indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) in suites of dynamically and statistically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) against NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset over Florida. The models examined here are: (1) nested RCMs involved in the North American CORDEX (NA-CORDEX) program, (2) variable resolution Community Earth System Models (VR-CESM), (3) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models statistically downscaled using localized constructed analogs (LOCA) technique. To quantify observational uncertainty, three in situ-based (PRISM, Livneh, CPC) and three reanalysis (ERA5, MERRA2, NARR) datasets are also evaluated against the station data. The reanalyses and dynamically downscaled RCMs generally underestimate the magnitude of the monthly precipitation and the frequency of the extreme rainfall in summer. The models forced with CanESM2 miss the phase of the seasonality of extreme precipitation. All models and reanalyses severely underestimate both the mean and interannual variability of mean wet-day precipitation (SDII), consecutive dry days (CDD), and overestimate consecutive wet days (CWD). Metric analysis suggests large uncertainty across NA-CORDEX models. Both the LOCA and VR-CESM models perform better than the majority of models. Overall, RegCM4 and WRF models perform poorer than the median model performance. The performance uncertainty across models is comparable to that in the reanalyses. Specifically, NARR performs poorer than the median model performance in simulating the mean indices and MERRA2 performs worse than the majority of models in capturing the interannual variability of the indices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Multi-Parent Clustering Algorithms from Stochastic Grammar Data Models

We introduce a statistical data model and an associated optimization-based clustering algorithm which allows data vectors to belong to zero, one or several "parent" clusters. For each data vector the algorithm makes a discrete decision among these alternatives. Thus, a recursive version of this algorithm would place data clusters in a Directed Acyclic Graph rather than a tree. We test the algorithm with synthetic data generated according to the statistical data model. We also illustrate the algorithm using real data from large-scale gene expression assays.

Mjoisness, Eric↗