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DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing manufacturing sector disruptions with targeted mitigation strategies

It has become clear in recent decades that manufacturing supply chains are increasingly vulnerable to disruptions of varying geographical scales and intensities. These disruptions—whether intentional, accidental, or resulting from natural disasters—cause failures and capacity reductions to manufacturing infrastructure, with lasting effects that can cascade throughout the manufacturing network. An overall lack of understanding of solutions to mitigate disturbances has rendered the challenge of reducing manufacturing supply chain vulnerability even more difficult. Additionally, the variability of disruptions and their impacts complicates policy maker and stakeholder efforts to plan for specific disruptive scenarios. It is necessary to comprehend different kinds of disturbances and group them based on stakeholder-provided metrics to support planning processes and modeling efforts that promote adaptable, resilient manufacturing supply chains. This paper reviews existing methods for risk management in manufacturing supply chains and the economic and environmental impacts of disruptions. In addition, we develop a framework using agglomerative hierarchical clustering to classify disruptions using U.S. manufacturing network data between 2000 and 2021 and characteristic metrics defined in the literature. Our review identifies five groups of disruptions and discusses both general mitigation methods and strategies targeting each identified group. Further, we highlight gaps in the literature related to estimating and including environmental costs in disaster preparedness and mitigation planning. We also discuss the lack of easily available metrics to quantify environmental impacts of disruptions and how such metrics could be included into our methodology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A semblance measure for model comparison

Algorithmic and computational advances have made it possible that geophysical survey and earth model design can be aided by many systematic trial inverse-modelling runs with synthetic data. Such may, for example, come up in machine-learning approaches. Automated image appraisal pertaining to such applications will involve common statistical tests for goodness-of-data fit as a primary evaluation method. However, solution non-uniqueness may render multiple images equivalent in terms of their data fit, requiring secondary categorizers. A logical choice for classifying synthetic-imaging results quantifies the goodness of model fit where a known reference model replaces the observational input. The task of model intercomparison in terms of measuring the resemblance to the reference model poses challenges to common distance-based metrics like root mean square error and mean absolute error. First, distance-based metrics can introduce spurious contributions when smooth models with fuzzy target contours are to be compared against a sharp reference. Second, large differences due to parameter-estimation overshoots can dominate distance metrics. Here, we propose a remedy that is referred to as semblance and is based on the idea of logistic functions, where a binary-dependent variable adds non-zero or zero accumulation terms for the, respectively, passing or failing of preset target thresholds. This classifying approach is amenable to an objective where model feature recognition is primary. Numerical comparisons to distance-based metrics provide evidence for the advantages of the semblance in view of this objective. Geophysical imaging in conjunction with machine-learning is seen as a benefitting upcoming application area.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of probabilistic photometric redshift estimation approaches for The Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)

Many scientific investigations of photometric galaxy surveys require redshift estimates, whose uncertainty properties are best encapsulated by photometric redshift (photo-z) posterior probability density functions (PDFs). A plethora of photo-z PDF estimation methodologies abound, producing discrepant results with no consensus on a preferred approach. We present the results of a comprehensive experiment comparing twelve photo-z algorithms applied to mock data produced forLarge Synoptic Survey Telescope The Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (lsst) Dark Energy Science Collaboration (desc). By supplying perfect prior information, in the form of the complete template library and a representative training set as inputs to each code, we demonstrate the impact of the assumptions underlying each technique on the output photo-z PDFs. In the absence of a notion of true, unbiased photo-z PDFs, we evaluate and interpret multiple metrics of the ensemble properties of the derived photo-z PDFs as well as traditional reductions to photo-z point estimates. Additionally, we report systematic biases and overall over/under-breadth of the photo-z PDFs of many popular codes, which may indicate avenues for improvement in the algorithms or implementations. Furthermore, we raise attention to the limitations of established metrics for assessing photo-z PDF accuracy; though we identify the conditional density estimate (CDE) loss as a promising metric of photo-z PDF performance in the case where true redshifts are available but true photo-z PDFs are not, we emphasize the need for science-specific performance metrics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Positive Energy Functional for Massless Scalars in Rotating Black Hole Backgrounds of Maximal Ungauged Supergravity

Here, we outline a proof of the stability of a massless neutral scalar field ψ in the background of a wide class of four dimensional asymptotically flat rotating and “electrically charged” solutions of supergravity, and the low energy limit of string theory, known as STU metrics. Despite their complexity, we find it possible to circumvent the difficulties presented by the existence of ergo regions and the related phenomenon of superradiance in the original metrics by following a strategy due to Whiting, and passing to an auxiliary metric admitting an everywhere lightlike Killing field and constructing a scalar field ψ (related to a possible unstable mode ψ by a nonlocal transformation) which satisfies the massless wave equation with respect to the auxiliary metric. By contrast with the case for ψ, the associated energy density of ψ is not only conserved but is also non-negative.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Gravitational Test beyond the First Post-Newtonian Order with the Shadow of the M87 Black Hole

In this study, the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations of the central source in M87 have led to the first measurement of the size of a black-hole shadow. This observation offers a new and clean gravitational test of the black-hole metric in the strong-field regime. We show analytically that spacetimes that deviate from the Kerr metric but satisfy weak-field tests can lead to large deviations in the predicted black-hole shadows that are inconsistent with even the current EHT measurements. We use numerical calculations of regular, parametric, non-Kerr metrics to identify the common characteristic among these different parametrizations that control the predicted shadow size. We show that the shadow-size measurements place significant constraints on deviation parameters that control the second post-Newtonian and higher orders of each metric and are, therefore, inaccessible to weak-field tests. The new constraints are complementary to those imposed by observations of gravitational waves from stellar-mass sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Did the GPU obfuscate the load imbalance in my MPI simulation?

The current proliferation of GPU-based HPC systems necessitates a method for assessing the performance of simulations on heterogeneous machines. The addition of GPUs to a system adds multiple hierarchical levels of parallelism to the node architecture. In this paper, we demonstrate that the traditional load imbalance metric is insufficient for capturing the load imbalance on GPU-based machines, since it treats the GPU as a monolithic entity and ignores the internal parallelism. We propose a new hierarchical metric that improves the correlation of measured performance and application workload by up to 20.61%. Using our metric for determining application load instead of the traditional metric as the input for the load balancing algorithm reduces the residual load imbalance by up to 4× in our application.

Eberius, David↗

DOE OSTI2024

Drilling Down I/O Bottlenecks with Cross-layer I/O Profile Exploration

I/O performance monitoring tools such as Darshan and Recorder collect I/O-related metrics on production systems and help understand the applications' behavior. However, some gaps prevent end-users from seeing the whole picture when it comes to detecting and drilling down to the root causes of I/O performance slowdowns and where those problems originate. These gaps arise from limitations in the available metrics, their collection strategy, and the lack of translation to actionable items that could advise on optimizations. This paper highlights such gaps and proposes solutions to drill down to the source code level to pinpoint the root causes of I/O bottlenecks scientific applications face by relying on cross-layer analysis combining multiple performance metrics related to I/O software layers. We demonstrate with two real applications how metrics collected in high-level libraries (which are closer to the data models used by an application), enhanced by source-code insights and natural language translations, can help streamline the understanding of I/O behavior and provide guidance to end-users, developers, and supercomputing facilities on how to improve I/O performance. Using this cross-layer analysis and the heuristic recommendations, we attained up to 6.9× speedup from run-as-is executions.

Ather, Hammad↗

DOE OSTI2020

Performance Portability Evaluation of OpenCL Benchmarks across Intel and NVIDIA Platforms

We evaluate the capabilities of vendor-provided OpenCL implementations for performance portability across multiple computing platforms. The Rodinia benchmark suite is used for this evaluation. We apply the metric defined by Pennycook et al., and we use roofline efficiency from the Roofline performance model as the "performance efficiency" in the metric's definition. We found that the delivered performance portability is similar for several benchmarks, even if the roofline-based performance efficiencies across platforms are very different among the benchmarks. To help distinguish between these instances, we extend the metric by adding the standard deviation of the performance efficiencies for each benchmark. We argue that the standard deviation gives additional insight into performance portability assessment since it adds the performance variability across platforms. Additionally, we discuss the challenges to measure performance portability associated with algorithms and system software. In terms of algorithms, we need to carefully construct the benchmarks and appropriately use the concurrency available on a platform. In terms of system software, we depend on the vendor performance tools to support the desired programming model and runtime to be able to measure the metrics of interest.

GPU↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Alternative Timing and Synchronization Approach for Situational Awareness and Predictive Analytics

Accurate and synchronized timing information is required by power system operators for controlling the grid infrastructure (relays, Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs), etc.) and determining asset positions. Satellite-based global positioning system (GPS) is the primary source of timing information. However, GPS disruptions today (both intentional and unintentional) can significantly compromise the reliability and security of our electric grids. A robust alternate source for accurate timing is critical to serve both as a deterrent against malicious attacks and as a redundant system in enhancing the resilience against extreme events that could disrupt the GPS network. To achieve this, we rely on the highly accurate, terrestrial atomic clock-based network for alternative timing and synchronization. In this paper, we discuss an experimental setup for an alternative timing approach. The data obtained from this experimental setup is continuously monitored and analyzed using various time deviation metrics. We also use these metrics to compute deviations of our clock with respect to the National Institute of Standards and Technologys (NIST) GPS data. The results obtained from these metric computations are elaborately discussed. Finally, we discuss the integration of the procedures involved, like real-time data ingestion, metric computation, and result visualization, in a novel microservices-based architecture for situational awareness.

Chinthavali, Supriya↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Critical Exploration of the Efficiency Impacts of Demand Response From HVAC in Commercial Buildings

Increasing quantities of renewable energy generation has yielded a need for greater energy storage capacity in power systems. Thermal storage in variable air volume (VAV) heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) in commercial buildings has been identified as an inexpensive source of grid storage, but the true costs are not known. Recent literature explores the inefficiency associated with providing grid services from these HVAC-based demand response (DR) resources by employing a battery analogy to calculate round-trip efficiency (RTE). Results vary significantly across studies and in some cases reported efficiencies are strikingly low. This article has three objectives to address these prior results. First, we synthesize and expand on insights into existing literature by systematically exploring the potential causes for the discrepancies in results. We reinforce previous work indicating baseline modeling may drive differences across studies and deduce that control accuracy plays a role in the major differences between experiments and simulation. Second, we discuss why the RTE metric is problematic for DR applications, discuss another proposed metric, additional energy consumption (AEC), and propose an extension, which we call uninstructed energy consumption (UEC), to evaluate DR performance. Finally, we explore the merits of different metrics using experimental data and highlight UEC's reduced sensitivity to the characteristics of the DR signal than previously proposed metrics.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering EV Charging Loads with Prediction Interval Evaluation

Short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. Along with the electrification of various loads, electricity demands are becoming increasingly hard to predict. Notably, the recent rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has further contributed to this unpredictability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic load forecasting strategy utilizing Gaussian process regression, structured in a day-ahead manner. While many works focus on deterministic prediction, probabilistic forecasting offers additional insights into variability and uncertainty, enabling more flexible and reliable operation for power systems. To enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting model, the inputs include features related to EV charging habits as well as commonly used weather information. The load forecasting results are evaluated using various metrics, including conventional ones that assess the accuracy of point forecasts, as well as additional metrics that test the reliability of prediction intervals. The proposed load forecasting method is finally tested on real residential power consumption data and EV charging data sampled from real-world sources. The results prove that the new features can greatly improve the performance of the load forecasting method.

electrical vehicle↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Historical Power Outages of the United States and the National Risk Index

Several works have been documented in the literature to study the societal effect of power outages and to analyze their correlation with the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). However, the relationship between National Risk Index (NRI) and power outages is yet to be explored. This work analyzes the NRI indices such as Risk, Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience with several resilience metrics such as event duration, impact duration, recovery duration, impact level, impact rate, recovery rate, recovery to impact ratio, and area under the outage curves to see the correlation of NRI indices with the resilience metrics. The results show that NRI indices such as Risk and Expected Annual Loss increase with the increase of event duration, impact duration, and recovery duration. All Other metrics are indifferent to the change in the Risk and EAL ratings. The results also show that there is no strong relationship between all the metrics and community resilience and social vulnerability. This work also performed the sensitivity analysis of the extreme event selection process. This sensitivity analysis reveals that the way of identifying extreme events has a significant impact on the evaluation of the events.

Bhusal, Narayan↗

DOE OSTI2022

OptZConfig: Efficient Parallel Optimization of Lossy Compression Configuration

Lossless compressors have very low compression ratios that do not meet the needs of today's large-scale scientific applications that produce vast volumes of data. Error-bounded lossy compression (EBLC) is considered a critical technique for the success of scientific research. Although EBLC allows users to set an error bound for the compression, users have been unable to specify the requirements on the compression quality, limiting practical use. Our contributions are: (1) We formulate the problem of configuring EBLC to preserve a user-defined metric as an optimization problem. This allows many classes of new metrics to be preserved, which improves over current practices. (2) We present a framework, OptZConfig, that can adapt to improvements in the search algorithm, compressor, and metrics with minimal changes, enabling future advancements in this area. (3) We demonstrate the advantages of our approach against the leading methods to configure compressors to preserve specific metrics. Here, our approach improves compression ratios against a specialized compressor by up to 3 x, has a 56x speedup over FRaZ, 1000x speedup over MGARD-QOI post tuning, and 110x speedup over systematic approaches which had not been bounded by compressors before.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Greggd

greg(g)d - Global runtime for eBPF-enabled gathering (w/ gumption) daemon Recently the linux kernel has added support for low-level kernel monitoring and profiling through a in-kernel virtual machine. The tooling around these new features (the extended Berkley Packet Filter or eBPF for short) is not mature and is difficult to use. Benefits from eBPF are especially hard to realize while trying to do large scale deployments and integrate with existing metric analysis stacks. A tool was needed to enable loading and collecting data from eBPF programs on large scale HPC systems. Given the problems above it was obvious we needed some wrapper program to compile, load, and collect data from eBPF programs running in the kernel. This tool needed to be lightweight without a heavy set of dependencies, relatively stable between different kernel versions, and integrate nicely with existing widely used metric collection tools. We wrote a program that wraps the eBPF tooling and sends data to our metric gathering tool. eBPF programs are either compiled using the host compiler stack, or loaded in the kernel directly from an object file. These programs are then attached to the system calls that we want to profile. Whenever these system calls are run, the eBPF program collects information of interest and writes that to memory. Our wrapper program polls these memory locations, reads and formats the data, then sends the information to a local unix socket. Our other monitoring tools are configured to read from that socket and send it to the rest of our metric monitoring stack for analysis.

Voss, Joseph [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak ↗

DOE OSTI2023

EI_MS_ML

The unambiguous identification of compounds from their electron ionization mass (EI-MS) spectra remains a significant unsolved problem in the field of metabolomics and analytical chemistry as a whole. Typically EI-MS spectra are compared using various mathematical operations that convert the spectral similarity or differences into a distance-like metric that roughly approximates the similarity of any two spectra. A commonly used metric for this is the cosine similarity metric which has values close to one for very similar spectra and a value of zero for very dissimilar spectra; however, no metric is perfect. Due to the prevalence of structurally-similar compounds such as isomers and the prevalence of certain fragmentation patterns across structurally-dissimilar compounds, the unambiguous assignment of EI-MS spectra compounds remains difficult. Frequently, querying an observed EI-MS spectrum against a large database such as the NIST17 library yields multiple possible assignments requiring the end user to distinguish between multiple high scoring hits, or multiple low scoring hits while keeping in mind that the correct hit may not be in the database at all. Although techniques such as orthogonal information from techniques such as chromatography can greatly aid in unambiguous assignment, this also requires more complicated experimental designs and access to more complicated analytical instrumentation. Substructures can be trivially detected and represented as strings using a previously published technique called node coloring from a known chemical structure. However, for experimentally-derived EI-MS spectra this information must be derived from the spectra itself (i.e., because we do not know what compound it represents). To achieve this, the software uses techniques from the field of machine learning and a large training dataset of EI-MS spectra corresponding to known structures annotated with substructure strings, to build models that can predict the presence of a given chemical substructure from an EI-MS spectrum directly.If these predictions are of high-quality (i.e., are unlikely to be false positives), the presence of one or more predicted substructures can be used to constrain the number of possible hits for a query spectrum. Mathematically, this restriction could be expressed in many forms, but the most straight-forward implementation is to weight the cosine similarity of a query spectrum and a plausible database match with a Tanimoto-like coefficient based on the ratio of the number of substructures predicted to the number of substructures present in the potential database hit. Determining which combination of models best reduces assignment ambiguity will be achieved using a combination of manual curation and optimization techniques such as genetic algorithms. This software will perform all the steps necessary to construct said models from a training dataset and evaluate them using a holdout dataset. Various statistical analyses can be performed to determine if this approach does decrease assignment ambiguity. For example, if this approach works, on average, the rank-order of the correct assignment for the holdout set of EI-MS spectra should decrease and the weighted cosine similarities for most of the possible matches in the database should be better than the unweighted cosine similarities. Furthermore, this same pipeline can be used on real experimental data to generate less ambiguous assignments.

Mitchell, Joshua↗

DOE OSTI2024

LiAISON (Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models) [SWR-24-01]

We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE)7. We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming. Scientific publication available here: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acs.est.2c04246

Ghosh, Tapajyoti↗

DOE OSTI2023

BUTTER-Clarifier [SWR-23-61]

This repository contains a python package of neural network interpretability techniques (interpretability) and a keras callback to easily compute and capture data related to these techniques (values metrics) during training. It was developed to be used with NREL's BUTTER Deep Learning Experimental Framework, but does not depend on this framework and may be useful to projects outside of this framework. The vision for this codebase is to collect algorithms for explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) in a single framework that is easy to use, easy to read, and can be expand upon. Here, we package XAI algorithms into a module called "metrics", which are implemented as python functions. The return type of a metric is typically a dictionary holding data of multiple data types, such as real values and numpy matrices. Callbacks and any other connector code is provided as necessary in a separate module to make these metrics more easily usable. This project depends on Tensorflow's Keras API, although it would be nice to try and support multiple backends one day. Related to: https://github.com/NREL/BUTTER-Empirical-Deep-Learning-Experimental-Framework

Perr-Sauer, Jordan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy Supply Security Index (eesi) v0.1.0

This software computes different metrics that quantify energy supply security. It computes metrics for the amount of energy self-production, autonomy, system adequacy, self-sufficiency and autarky. The software has been developed to compute metrics that are introduced in a journal manuscript, and the software is intended to be published to make the underlying metric calculation accessible and reproducible to the reader of the article. Potential use of the software is for policymakers, energy planners and researchers to guide energy system infrastructure decisions.

Sulzer, Matthias [Swiss Federal Laboratories for M↗