Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Measurement uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,279 records · Page 71

Nuclear Uncertainties Associated with the Nucleosynthesis in Ejecta of a Black Hole Accretion Disk

Abstract The simulation of heavy element nucleosynthesis requires input from yet-to-be-measured nuclear properties. The uncertainty in the values of these off-stability nuclear properties propagates to uncertainties in the predictions of elemental and isotopic abundances. However, for any given astrophysical explosion, there are many different trajectories, i.e., temperature and density histories, experienced by outflowing material, and thus different nuclear properties can come into play. We consider combined nucleosynthesis results from 460,000 trajectories from a black hole accretion disk and find the spread in elemental predictions due solely to unknown nuclear properties to be a factor of a few. We analyze this relative spread in model predictions due to nuclear variations and conclude that the uncertainties can be attributed to a combination of properties in a given region of the abundance pattern. We calculate a cross-correlation between mass changes and abundance changes to show how variations among the properties of participating nuclei may be explored. Our results provide further impetus for measurements of multiple quantities on individual short-lived neutron-rich isotopes at modern experimental facilities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Laser ranging system with 1-cm resolution.

A laser ranging system has been developed in which an image converter tube equipped with deflection plates is used to make a precise measurement of the fractional amount by which the time of flight of the ranging pulse exceeds an integral multiple N of the period of a stable oscillator. The value of N is determined in an auxiliary measurement. In short-range tests with a laboratory breadboard version of the system, time-of-flight uncertainties of about 45 psec were observed. The corresponding uncertainty in a range measurement is smaller than 7 mm.

Golden, K. E.↗

Analysis of air quality management with emphasis on transportation sources

The current environment and practices of air quality management were examined for three regions: Denver, Phoenix, and the South Coast Air Basin of California. These regions were chosen because the majority of their air pollution emissions are related to mobile sources. The impact of auto exhaust on the air quality management process is characterized and assessed. An examination of the uncertainties in air pollutant measurements, emission inventories, meteorological parameters, atmospheric chemistry, and air quality simulation models is performed. The implications of these uncertainties to current air quality management practices is discussed. A set of corrective actions are recommended to reduce these uncertainties.

English, T. D.↗

Retrieving the Vertical Structure of the Effective Aerosol Complex Index of Refraction from a Combination of Aerosol in Situ and Remote Sensing Measurements During TARFOX

The largest uncertainty in estimates of the effects of atmospheric aerosols on climate stems from uncertainties in the determination of their microphysical properties, including the aerosol complex index of refraction, which in turn determines their optical properties. A novel technique is used to estimate the aerosol complex index of refraction in distinct vertical layers from a combination of aerosol in situ size distribution and remote sensing measurements during the Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX). In particular, aerosol backscatter measurements using the NASA Langley LASE (Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment) instrument and in situ aerosol size distribution data are utilized to derive vertical profiles of the "effective" aerosol complex index of refraction at 815 nm (i.e., the refractive index that would provide the same backscatter signal in a forward calculation on the basis of the measured in situ particle size distributions for homogeneous, spherical aerosols). A sensitivity study shows that this method yields small errors in the retrieved aerosol refractive indices, provided the errors in the lidar-derived aerosol backscatter are less than 30% and random in nature. Absolute errors in the estimated aerosol refractive indices are generally less than 0.04 for the real part and can be as much as 0.042 for the imaginary part in the case of a 30% error in the lidar-derived aerosol backscatter. The measurements of aerosol optical depth from the NASA Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS-6) are successfully incorporated into the new technique and help constrain the retrieved aerosol refractive indices. An application of the technique to two TARFOX case studies yields the occurrence of vertical layers of distinct aerosol refractive indices. Values of the estimated complex aerosol refractive index range from 1.33 to 1.45 for the real part and 0.001 to 0.008 for the imaginary part. The methodology devised in this study provides, for the first time, a complete set of vertically resolved aerosol size distribution and refractive index data. yielding the vertical distribution of aerosol optical properties required for the determination of aerosol-induced radiative flux changes.

Redemann, J.↗

Retrieving the Vertical Structure of the Effective Aerosol Complex Index of Refraction from a Combination of Aerosol in Situ and Remote Sensing Measurements During TARFOX

The largest uncertainty in estimates of the effects of atmospheric aerosols on climate stems from uncertainties in the determination of their microphysical properties, including the aerosol complex index of refraction, which in turn determines their optical properties. A novel technique is used to estimate the aerosol complex index of refraction in distinct vertical layers from a combination of aerosol in situ size distribution and remote sensing measurements during the Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX). In particular, aerosol backscatter measurements using the NASA Langley LASE (Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment) instrument and in situ aerosol size distribution data are utilized to derive vertical profiles of the 'effective' aerosol complex index of refraction at 815 nm (i.e., the refractive index that would provide the same backscatter signal in a forward calculation on the basis of the measured in situ particle size distributions for homogeneous, spherical aerosols). A sensitivity study shows that this method yields small errors in the retrieved aerosol refractive indices, provided the errors in the lidar derived aerosol backscatter are less than 30% and random in nature. Absolute errors in the estimated aerosol refractive indices are generally less than 0.04 for the real part and can be as much as 0.042 for the imaginary part in the case of a 30% error in the lidar-derived aerosol backscatter. The measurements of aerosol optical depth from the NASA Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS-6) are successfully incorporated into the new technique and help constrain the retrieved aerosol refractive indices. An application of the technique to two TARFOX case studies yields the occurrence of vertical layers of distinct aerosol refractive indices. Values of the estimated complex aerosol refractive index range from 1.33 to 1.45 for the real part and 0.001 to 0.008 for the imaginary part. The methodology devised in this study provides, for the first time a complete set of vertically resolved aerosol size distribution and refractive index data, yielding the vertical distribution of aerosol optical properties required for the determination of aersol-induced radiative flux changes

Redemann, J.↗

Evaluation of Historic Nuclear Cloud Measurement for Entrainment Parameter Determination

We evaluated the uncertainties associated with the entrainment parameters computed from nuclear cloud measurements taken during historic weapon testing campaigns. This evaluation found that variations in the way cloud heights and diameters were defined during the analysis of film records result in very large uncertainties in the entrainment parameters, severely limiting the utility of these data. For the measurements of atmospheric conditions at the time of the tests, the main sources of error are associated with the differences in the location and timing of the soundings.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Instrumentation Working Group Summary

The Instrumentation Working Group compiled a summary of measurement techniques applicable to gas turbine engine aerosol precursors and particulates. An assessment was made of the limits, accuracy, applicability, and technology readiness of the various techniques. Despite advances made in emissions characterization of aircraft engines, uncertainties still exist in the mechanisms by which aerosols and particulates are produced in the near-field engine exhaust. To adequately assess current understanding of the formation of sulfuric acid aerosols in the exhaust plumes of gas turbine engines, measurements are required to determine the degree and importance of sulfur oxidation in the turbine and at the engine exit. Ideally, concentrations of all sulfur species would be acquired, with emphasis on SO2 and SO3. Numerous options exist for extractive and non-extractive measurement of SO2 at the engine exit, most of which are well developed. SO2 measurements should be performed first to place an upper bound on the percentage of SO2 oxidation. If extractive and non-extractive techniques indicate that a large amount of the fuel sulfur is not detected as SO2, then efforts are needed to improve techniques for SO3 measurements. Additional work will be required to account for the fuel sulfur in the engine exhaust. Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometry (CI-MS) measurements need to be pursued, although a careful assessment needs to be made of the sampling line impact on the extracted sample composition. Efforts should also be placed on implementing non-intrusive techniques and extending their capabilities by maximizing exhaust coverage for line-of-sight measurements, as well as development of 2-D techniques, where feasible. Recommendations were made to continue engine exit and combustor measurements of particulates. Particulate measurements should include particle size distribution, mass fraction, hydration properties, and volatile fraction. However, methods to ensure that unaltered samples are obtained need to be developed. Particulate speciation was also assigned a high priority for quantifying the fractions of carbon soot, PAH, refractory materials, metals, sulfates, and nitrates. High priority was also placed on performing a comparison of particle sizing instruments. Concern was expressed by the workshop attendees who routinely make particulate measurements about the variation in number density measured during in-flight tests by different instruments. In some cases, measurements performed by different groups of researchers during the same flight tests showed an order of magnitude variation. Second priority was assigned to measuring concentrations of odd hydrogen and oxidizing species. Since OH, HO2, H2O2, and O are extremely reactive, non-extractive measurements are recommended. A combination of absorption and fluorescence is anticipated to be effective for OH measurements in the combustor and at the engine exit. Extractive measurements of HO2 have been made in the stratosphere, where the ambient level of OH is relatively low. Use of techniques that convert HO2 to OH for combustor and engine exit measurements needs to be evaluated, since the ratio of HO2/OH may be 1% or less at both the combustor and engine exit. CI-MS might be a viable option for H2O2, subject to sampling line conversion issues. However, H2O2 is a low priority oxidizing species in the combustor and at the engine exit. Two candidates for atomic oxygen measurements are Resonance Enhanced Multi-Photon Ionization (REMPI) and Laser-Induced Fluorescence (LIF). Particulate measurement by simultaneous extractive and non-extractive techniques was given equal priority to the oxidizer measurements. Concern was expressed over the ability of typical ground test sampling lines to deliver an unaltered sample to a remotely located instrument. It was suggested that the sampling probe and line losses be checked out by attempting measurements using an optical or non-extractive technique immediately upstream of the sampling probe. This is a possible application for Laser Induced Incandescence (LII) as a check on the volume fraction of soot. Optical measurements of size distribution are not well developed for ultrafine particles less than about 20 nm in diameter, so a non-extractive technique for particulate size distribution cannot be recommended without further development. Carbon dioxide measurements need to be made to complement other extractive measurement techniques. CO2 measurements enable conversion of other species concentrations to emission indices. Carbon monoxide, which acts as a sink for oxidizing species, should be measured using non-extractive techniques. CO can be rapidly converted to CO2 in extractive probes, and a comparison between extractive and non-extractive measurements should be performed. Development of non-extractive techniques would help to assess the degree of CO conversion, and might be needed to improve the concentration measurement accuracy. Measurements of NO(x) will continue to be critical due to the role of NO and NO2 in atmospheric chemistry, and their influence on atmospheric ozone. Time-resolved measurements of temperature, velocity, and species concentrations were included on the list of desired measurement. Thermocouples are typically adequate for engine exit measurements. PIV and LDV are well established for obtaining velocity profiles. The techniques are listed in the accompanying table; are divided into extractive and non-extractive techniques. Efforts were made to include a measurement uncertainty for each technique. An assessment of the technology readiness was included.

Zaller, Michelle↗

Internal calibration of transient kinetic data via machine learning

The temporal analysis of products (TAP) reactor provides a vast amount of transient kinetic information that may be used to describe a variety of chemical features including residence time distributions, kinetic coefficients, number of active sites, reaction mechanism, etc. However, as with any measurement device, the TAP reactor signal is convoluted with noise and drift is common. In order to reduce the uncertainty of the kinetic measurement and any derived parameters or mechanisms, proper preprocessing must be performed prior to any advanced type of analysis. This preprocessing includes baseline correction, i.e., a shift in the voltage response, and calibration, i.e., a scaling of the flux response based on prior experiments. The traditional methodology of preprocessing requires significant user discretion and reliance on separate calibration experiments that may drift over time. Herein we use machine learning techniques combined with physical constraints to understand the noise and drift that is being generated within and between experiments for enhancement of the chemical kinetic signal. As such, the proposed methodology demonstrates clear benefits over the traditional preprocessing approach by eliminating the need for separate calibration experiments or heuristic input from the user.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Detecting Hail from Space: Using a Multi-Frequency Passive-Microwave Retrieval to Analyze the Global Climatology and Diurnal Cycle of Severe Hail

Severe hail poses myriad threats to society, causing extensive damage to infrastructure and agriculture. As hail is severe, relatively infrequent, and highly localized, it is difficult to measure in-situ and if left unresolved in models and precipitation retrievals, hail can cause large errors and uncertainties. The difficulty in measuring hail in situ and the inconsistency of surface-based hail reporting drive the motivation to use spaceborne remote-sensing platforms to retrieve hail and construct climatologies in a globally uniform way. We leverage the scattering signatures of severe hail in spaceborne passive-microwave datasets paired with surface hail reports to construct a multi-frequency hail retrieval using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) microwave imager (TMI) data. Using coincident Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ku-band precipitation radar, we assessed this retrieval and several others in the literature for their effectiveness and regional variability. We use this retrieval to construct global passive-microwave climatologies of severe hail using the TRMM, GPM, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensors and extend into the pre-TRMM era to the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMI/(S)) data. We also leverage the sensors in inclined orbits to assess the diurnal variability of severe hail globally and the effect the diurnal cycle has on the detection of hail by sensors in sun-synchronous orbit. The goal is to construct a robust, multi-decade multi-satellite climatology of hail. As part of the NASA Disasters Applied Sciences program, we assess these climatologies against other satellite severe weather datasets and use these climatologies in collaboration with stakeholders and end-users to help them assess risk, and improve the prediction, preparation, and response to severe storms around the world.

Sarah D Bang↗

Neutron Spectrum and 10B(n,α) Measurements in ZPPR-15

Neutron spectra were measured at the core center with proton recoil spectrometers in ZPPR15A loading 66, ZPPR-15B loading 90 and ZPPR loading 186. In addition, neutron spectra were measured in the SSNA shield configuration in ZPPR-15B loading 121 and in the BCNA shield configuration in ZPPR-15B loading 126. The ZPPR-15 neutron spectrum measurement and data processing techniques were described and analyzed. Total uncertainties were derived for all five spectrum measurements. A back-to-back proportional counter was used to measure the 10 B(n,α) reaction rate at six locations in the simulated shield, radial reflector and outer core in the ZPPR-15B BCNA shield experiment. The measurements were described and analyzed. A total uncertainty was derived for the 10 B(n,α) reaction rate measurements. The ZPPR-15 experimental records were used to develop detailed as-built Monte Carlo models for the five neutron spectrum measurement configurations and for the six 10 B(n,α) measurement configurations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Exploring HOD-dependent systematics for the DESI 2024 Full-Shape galaxy clustering analysis

We analyze the robustness of the DESI 2024 cosmological inference from the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum to uncertainties in the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model of the galaxy-halo connection and the choice of priors on nuisance parameters. We assess variations in the recovered cosmological parameters across a range of mocks populated with different HOD models and find that shifts are often greater than 20% of the expected statistical uncertainties from the DESI data. We encapsulate the effect of such shifts in terms of a systematic covariance term, C HOD , and an additional diagonal contribution quantifying the impact of our choice of nuisance parameter priors on the ability of the effective field theory (EFT) model to correctly recover the cosmological parameters of the simulations. These two covariance contributions are designed to be added to the usual covariance term, C stat , describing the statistical uncertainty in the power spectrum measurement, in order to fairly represent these sources of systematic uncertainty. This novel approach should be more general and robust to the choice of model or additional external datasets used in cosmological fits than the alternative approach of adding systematic uncertainties to the recovered marginalised parameter posteriors. We compare the approaches within the context of a fixed ΛCDM model and demonstrate that our method gives conservative estimates of the systematic uncertainty that nevertheless have little impact on the final posteriors obtained from DESI data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Performance of Trajectory Models with Wind Uncertainty

Typical aircraft trajectory predictors use wind forecasts but do not account for the forecast uncertainty. A method for generating estimates of wind prediction uncertainty is described and its effect on aircraft trajectory prediction uncertainty is investigated. The procedure for estimating the wind prediction uncertainty relies uses a time-lagged ensemble of weather model forecasts from the hourly updated Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) weather prediction system. Forecast uncertainty is estimated using measures of the spread amongst various RUC time-lagged ensemble forecasts. This proof of concept study illustrates the estimated uncertainty and the actual wind errors, and documents the validity of the assumed ensemble-forecast accuracy relationship. Aircraft trajectory predictions are made using RUC winds with provision for the estimated uncertainty. Results for a set of simulated flights indicate this simple approach effectively translates the wind uncertainty estimate into an aircraft trajectory uncertainty. A key strength of the method is the ability to relate uncertainty to specific weather phenomena (contained in the various ensemble members) allowing identification of regional variations in uncertainty.

Lee, Alan G.↗

Molecular Rayleigh Scattering Diagnostic for Measurement of High Frequency Temperature Fluctuations

A novel technique for measurement of high frequency temperature fluctuations in unseeded gas flows using molecular Rayleigh scattering is investigated. The spectrum of laser light scattered from molecules in a gas flow is resolved using a Fabry-Perot interferometer. The width of the spectral peak is broadened by thermal motion of the molecules and hence is related to gas temperature. The interference fringe pattern containing spectral information is divided into four concentric regions using a series of mirrors angled with respect to one another. Light from each of these regions is directed towards photomultiplier tubes and sampled at 10 kHz using photon counting electronics. Monitoring the relative change in intensity within each region allows measurement of gas temperature. Independently monitoring the total scattered intensity provides a measure of gas density. This technique also has the potential to simultaneously measure a single component of flow velocity by monitoring the spectral peak location. Measurements of gas temperature and density are demonstrated using a low speed heated air jet surrounded by an unheated air co-flow. Mean values of temperature and density are shown for radial scans across the jet flow at a fixed axial distance from the jet exit plane. Power spectra of temperature and density fluctuations at several locations in the jet are also shown. The instantaneous measurements have fairly high uncertainty; however, long data records provide highly accurate statistically quantities, which include power spectra. Mean temperatures are compared with thermocouple measurements as well as the temperatures derived from independent density measurements. The accuracy for mean temperature measurements was +/- 7 K.

Mielke, Amy F.↗

An Assessment of Turbulence Models for MSR Sample Retrieval Lander Aerothermal Design

Several cases from past entries in the T9 and T5 hypersonic test facilities are examined using various turbulence models and shock-layer thermochemistries with the objectives of verifying/validating turbulence models and determining appropriate multiplicative factors on predicted turbulent heating for use in aerothermal design of the heatshield of the Sample Retrieval Lander (SRL) of the Mars Sample Return (MSR) Flagship mission. The zero-equation turbulence models of Baldwin-Lomax and Cebeci-Smith are shown to replicate measurements to within experimental uncertainty for the T9 cases. For T5 cases, the zero-equation model of Baldwin-Lomax can also replicate measurements provided the shock-layer thermochemistry is modified. The modified thermochemistry resolves a dichotomy from past CFD that required different wall catalycity assumptions in the laminar and turbulent flow regimes. The present work shows that such assumptions are not necessary. Finally, an initial estimate for a multiplicative factor on turbulent heating is estimated for the SST turbulence model – the chosen model for SRL aerothermal design simulations.

Mars entry↗

Measurement of the effective leptonic weak mixing angle

Using pp collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV, recorded by the LHCb experiment between 2016 and 2018 and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.4 fb −1 , the forward-backward asymmetry in the pp → Z/γ* → μ + μ − process is measured. The measurement is carried out in ten intervals of the difference between the muon pseudorapidities, within a fiducial region covering dimuon masses between 66 and 116 GeV, muon pseudorapidities between 2.0 and 4.5 and muon transverse momenta above 20 GeV. These forward-backward asymmetries are compared with predictions, at next-to-leading order in the strong and electroweak couplings. The measured effective leptonic weak mixing angle is ${\sin}^2{\theta}_{\textrm{eff}}^{\ell }=0.23147\pm 0.00044\pm 0.00005\pm 0.00023,$ where the first uncertainty is statistical, the second arises from systematic uncertainties associated with the asymmetry measurement, and the third arises from uncertainties in the fit model used to extract ${\sin}^2{\theta}_{\textrm{eff}}^{\ell }$ from the asymmetry measurement. This result is based on an arithmetic average of results using the CT18, MSHT20, and NNPDF31 parameterisations of the proton internal structure, and is consistent with previous measurements and with predictions from the global electroweak fit.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Jet energy scale and resolution measured in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

Jet energy scale and resolution measurements with their associated uncertainties are reported for jets using 36–81 fb -1 of proton–proton collision data with a centre-of-mass energy of √s=13 TeV collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Jets are reconstructed using two different input types: topo-clusters formed from energy deposits in calorimeter cells, as well as an algorithmic combination of charged-particle tracks with those topo-clusters, referred to as the ATLAS particle-flow reconstruction method. The anti-k t jet algorithm with radius parameter R=0.4 is the primary jet definition used for both jet types. This result presents new jet energy scale and resolution measurements in the high pile-up conditions of late LHC Run 2 as well as a full calibration of particle-flow jets in ATLAS. Jets are initially calibrated using a sequence of simulation-based corrections. Next, several in situ techniques are employed to correct for differences between data and simulation and to measure the resolution of jets. The systematic uncertainties in the jet energy scale for central jets (|η|<1.2) vary from 1% for a wide range of high-p T jets (250 T <2000 GeV), to 5% at very low p T (20 GeV) and 3.5% at very high p T (>2.5 TeV). The relative jet energy resolution is measured and ranges from (24±1.5)% at 20 GeV to (6±0.5)% at 300 GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

OC6 Phase Ib: Validation of the CFD predictions of difference-frequency wave excitation on a FOWT semisubmersible

During the previous OC5 11 project, state-of-the-art mid-fidelity engineering tools for floating wind systems were found to consistently underpredict the nonlinear, low-frequency responses of semisubmersible offshore wind platforms, leading to substantial errors in the structural loads because of low-frequency surge and pitch resonance. To examine this underprediction, a coordinated investigation with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and model-basin experiments was carried out. Both investigations involved a fixed and simplified OC5-DeepCwind semisubmersible in bichromatic waves. The wave excitations - especially the nonlinear, difference-frequency excitation - on the structure from the CFD simulations were compared to the experimental measurements for validation, with uncertainty analyses for both the experimental and the CFD results. Furthermore, the wave excitations on each column of the semisubmersible were measured separately in the experiment, allowing the validation of the CFD results to be done on a per-column basis. Overall, the CFD predictions of the difference-frequency excitations agree with the experimental measurements, suggesting the CFD solutions can be used as a reference for tuning and improving the engineering-level tools and can provide a means to better understand the underprediction at low frequencies.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

A statistical analysis of simulated data from potential stratospheric satellite missions

A simplified one-dimensional model is used to analyze simulated data from typical proposed satellite measurements of trace species in the stratosphere. Uncertainties are introduced in simulated species concentration measurements and applied to the basic physical and chemical model data. The results of the calculations are then used to predict uncertainties in the species concentrations computed by the model. Candidate satellite missions can be evaluated for net information acquired by applying the error analysis. An abbreviated depiction of the computational procedure is given, and sample histograms based on an accumulation of 200 calculations are shown for H2O2 and ClNO3, demonstrating that emergent species distributions are roughly Gaussian in the logarithm of number density. Calculated vertical concentration profiles for these two species are presented.

Nealy, J. E.↗