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At least 1,279 records · Page 71

Detecting flash drought events to inform adaptive water management

Abstract: Flash droughts are characterized by a rapid onset of drought conditions, a common feature among various indicators of these events. The lack of a standardized definition and indicator makes flash droughts particularly challenging to predict and manage. We test six state-of-the-art flash drought indicators using 41 years of daily data across all Hydrological Unit Code 4 (HUC4) regions in the contiguous United States. Our results show substantial disagreements among indicators, suggesting that the detection of a flash drought event strongly depends on the choice of indicator. From the perspective of informing management and operations, an open challenge remains: which flash drought indicator should be used to trigger operational adaptations? To this end, we propose a methodological framework that informs adaptive actions by regionally assessing the level of agreement between different indicators. The regional differences in hydroclimatic conditions are expected to be reflected in the level of agreement between indicators. To better inform adaptive actions, the framework will also consider the impacted sectoral water uses and their varying response times. The insights gained from this study improve the understanding of how these different flash drought indicators capture the different aspects of regional differences and impacted sectors. Furthermore, this information can support more targeted adaptive actions to mitigate adverse impacts through improved preparedness and response strategies.

climate resilience↗

Characterization of Turbulence in the Mars Plasma Environment with MAVEN Observations

We characterize turbulence in the Mars plasma environment in a global scale for the first time by computing spectral indices for magnetic field fluctuations (slopes in the magnetic field power spectra) and determining how they vary with frequency and in different regions. In the magnetosheath, unlike in the solar wind, we find an absence of the inertial range which has a spectral index value equal to the Kolmogorov scaling value of minus 5 divided by 3. Instead, as observed in the magnetosheaths of other planets, we find that the spectral indices transition from low negative values close to minus 0.5 at low frequencies (less than proton gyrofrequency) to values much lower than minus 5 divided by 3 at high frequencies (greater than proton gyrofrequency). This indicates that the pristine solar wind is modified at the Martian bow shock and that the fluctuations are dominated by locally generated fluctuations in the magnetosheath. The absence of spectral indices with the Kolmogorov scaling value indicates that the fluctuations in the magnetosheath do not have sufficient time to interact with one another leading to a fully developed energy cascade. Spectral index values near the Kolmogorov scaling value are observed for the low-frequency range near the magnetic pileup boundary, and this indicates the presence of fully developed energy cascade. In the wake, we find that the spectral indices have approximately the same values, typically near minus 2, for both the low- and high-frequency ranges. We observe seasonal variations of the spectral indices, mainly in the upstream region, which indicate the seasonal variations of the proton cyclotron waves.

Magnetosheath↗

The influence of tillage and fertilizer on the flux and source of nitrous oxide with reference to atmospheric variation using laser spectroscopy

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is the third most important long-lived greenhouse gas and agriculture is the largest source of N 2 O emissions. Curbing N 2 O emissions requires understanding influences on the flux and sources of N 2 O. We measured flux and evaluated microbial sources of N 2 O using site preference ( S P ; the intramolecular distribution of 15 N in N 2 O) in flux chambers from a grassland tilling and agricultural fertilization experiments and atmosphere. We identified values greater than that of the average atmosphere to reflect nitrification and/or fungal denitrification and those lower than atmosphere as increased denitrification. Our spectroscopic approach was based on an extensive calibration with 18 standards that yielded S P accuracy and reproducibility of 0.7 ‰ and 1.0 ‰, respectively, without preconcentration. Chamber samples from the tilling experiment taken ~ monthly over a year showed a wide range in N 2 O flux (0–1.9 g N 2 O-N ha -1 d -1 ) and S P (- 1.8 to 25.1 ‰). Flux and S P were not influenced by tilling but responded to sampling date. Large fluxes occurred in October and May in no-till when soils were warm and moist and during a spring thaw, an event likely representing release of N 2 O accumulated under snow cover. These high fluxes could not be ascribed to a single microbial process as S P differed among chambers. However, the year-long S P and flux data for no-till showed a slight direct relationship suggesting that nitrification increased with flux. The comparative data in till showed an inverse relationship indicating that high flux events are driven by denitrification. Corn ( Zea mays ) showed high fluxes and S P values indicative of nitrification ~ 4 wk after fertilization with subsequent declines in S P indicating denitrification. Although there was no effect of fertilizer treatment on flux or S P in switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum) , high fluxes occurred ~1 month after fertilization. In both treatments, S P was indicative of denitrification in many instances, but evidence of nitrification/fungal denitrification also prevailed. At 2 m atmospheric N 2 O S P had a range of 31.1 ‰ and 14.6 ‰ in the grassland tilling and agricultural fertilization experiments, respectively. These data suggest the influence of soil microbial processes on atmospheric N 2 O and argue against the use of the global average atmospheric S P in isotopic modeling approaches.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

The state of food systems worldwide in the countdown to 2030

This Analysis presents a recently developed food system indicator framework and holistic monitoring architecture to track food system transformation towards global development, health and sustainability goals. Five themes are considered: (1) diets, nutrition and health; (2) environment, natural resources and production; (3) livelihoods, poverty and equity; (4) governance; and (5) resilience. Each theme is divided into three to five indicator domains, and indicators were selected to reflect each domain through a consultative process. In total, 50 indicators were selected, with at least one indicator available for every domain. Harmonized data of these 50 indicators provide a baseline assessment of the world’s food systems. We show that every country can claim positive outcomes in some parts of food systems, but none are among the highest ranked across all domains. Furthermore, some indicators are independent of national income, and each highlights a specific aspiration for healthy, sustainable and just food systems. The Food Systems Countdown Initiative will track food systems annually to 2030, amending the framework as new indicators or better data emerge.

Schneider, Kate R.↗

Error estimation and adaptive mesh refinement for parallel analysis of shell structures

The formulation and application of element-level, element-independent error indicators is investigated. This research culminates in the development of an error indicator formulation which is derived based on the projection of element deformation onto the intrinsic element displacement modes. The qualifier 'element-level' means that no information from adjacent elements is used for error estimation. This property is ideally suited for obtaining error values and driving adaptive mesh refinements on parallel computers where access to neighboring elements residing on different processors may incur significant overhead. In addition such estimators are insensitive to the presence of physical interfaces and junctures. An error indicator qualifies as 'element-independent' when only visible quantities such as element stiffness and nodal displacements are used to quantify error. Error evaluation at the element level and element independence for the error indicator are highly desired properties for computing error in production-level finite element codes. Four element-level error indicators have been constructed. Two of the indicators are based on variational formulation of the element stiffness and are element-dependent. Their derivations are retained for developmental purposes. The second two indicators mimic and exceed the first two in performance but require no special formulation of the element stiffness mesh refinement which we demonstrate for two dimensional plane stress problems. The parallelizing of substructures and adaptive mesh refinement is discussed and the final error indicator using two-dimensional plane-stress and three-dimensional shell problems is demonstrated.

Keating, Scott C.↗

Algorithmic Classification of Raman Spectra Biosignatures: Improving Life Detection Confidence

“Agnostic” biosignatures – indicators of life (or the absence of life), independent of a particular biochemistry – are increasingly considered a high standard for life detection. The Ladder of Life Detection (2018) called for investigating how combinations of independent and different potential biosignatures affect confidence. To address this gap, statistical classification of elemental abundances, isotopic fractionation, and reflectance spectroscopy (VNIR) has been implemented. Raman spectroscopy, highly desirable due to its wide availability, has the potential to improve this predictive power. This work implemented biosignature classification algorithms on Raman data alone, in preparation for combination with the other data types. Raman spectroscopy data was collected from published databases and papers as part of a manually curated dataset of “indicative” and “non-indicative of life” samples. These currently include 61 non-indicative samples (meteorites, magnetite); 3 indicative living samples (bacteria); 20 indicative non-living samples (chalk, bone); and 12 indicative mixed (with non-indicative material) samples (soil, microbial mats). Laboratory work is ongoing to characterize additional samples, particularly a greater breadth of mixed systems. Spectra were interpolated, filtered with the Savitzsky-Golay filter, and de-noised. For a preliminary examination, agnostic features were manually extracted including mean intensity, number of peaks, and mean peak width. Different peak prominences and filtering polynomials were used to refine features. Classification algorithms were implemented: k-nearest neighbors (KNN), logistic regression (LR), linear support vector machines (SVM), random forest (RF), Gaussian naïve bayes (GNB). Lastly, Monte Carlo simulations on 1,000 50%-train-test-splits were used to validate classification performance and feature significance. The preliminary feature set achieved its highest AUC of 0.52 with LR, with no strongly discriminatory features. Work to improve feature extraction, such as through deep learning with back propagation, is planned. In future work, the Raman data will be combined with the other data types, and potentially new data types such as enantiomeric excess. This project was partially supported through the NASA Ames Project EXcellence (APEX) incubator program.

Astrobiology↗

Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations of extreme precipitation over contiguous US regions

Simulated historical precipitation is evaluated for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models using precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The model indices are evaluated against corresponding indices from the CPC unified gauge-based analyses of precipitation over seven geographical regions across the contiguous US (CONUS). The regions assessed match those in recent US National Climate Assessment Reports. To estimate observational uncertainty, precipitation indices for three other observational datasets (HadEx2, Livneh and PRISM) are evaluated against the CPC analyses. Both the moderate and extreme mean precipitation intensities are overestimated over the western CONUS and underestimated in the areas of the Central Great Plains (CGP) in most CMIP6 models tested. Most CMIP6 models overestimate the mean and variability of wet spell durations and underestimate the mean and variability of dry spell durations across the CONUS. Biases in interannual variability of most of the indices have similar patterns to those in corresponding mean biases. The median and interquartile model spreads in CMIP6 model biases are clearly smaller than those in CMIP5 model biases for wet spell durations. Multimodel medians of CMIP6 (CMIP6-MMM) and CMIP5 (CMIP5-MMM) have similar biases in climatology and variability but biases tend to be smaller in CMIP6-MMM. Depending on the index, extreme precipitation is slightly better in parts of the eastern half of the CONUS in CMIP6-MMM, otherwise, the biases in climatology and variability are similar to CMIP5-MMM. CMIP6-MMM performs better than individual models and even observational datasets in some cases. Differences between observational datasets for most indices are comparable to the CMIP6 interquartile model spread. The better-performing observational and model datasets are different in different parts of the CONUS.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Corrective Maintenance Paradigm Shift at Hanford's Tank Farms - 20077

Hanford's Tank Farms facilities have been used to safely store waste for over 70 years, with the first single-shell tanks being constructed in 1943. Tank Farm facilities consist of 149 single-shell tanks, 28 double-shell tanks, an evaporator facility, and wastewater treatment facilities. Tank Farm facilities are aging, with a tremendous corrective maintenance burden on the Tank Farm contractor. The mission of Tank Farm facilities is soon changing from waste storage to waste staging for the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). WTP operations will demand a significant increase in Tank Farm facility operations, in which corrective maintenance outage windows will shrink drastically. This realization has forced the Tank Farm contractor to consider a paradigm shift in Tank Farm facilities Maintenance planning, and the use of reliability Engineering tools. The Tank Farm Production Operations Engineering Cognizant System Engineering (CSE) organization has led the way in motivating this paradigm shift. This shift has been realized through the use of: 1) technical exchange with other Department of Energy (DOE) contractors to develop improvements in the CSE program, 2) a shift from the use of lagging to leading system health indicators, and 3) a Plant Health Committee to unite Engineering, Operations, and Maintenance personnel toward a productive maintenance strategy. The CSE organization has held several technical exchanges with other DOE contractors to discuss CSE concepts, and how to better maintain aging infrastructure. The technical exchange with other contractors has greatly reduced the time required to make improvements in the Tank Farm CSE program. Other DOE contractors have already faced issues surrounding aging infrastructure, and have vast experience in improving the reliability and usable life of structures and components in nuclear facilities. The past CSE program used lagging health indicators to determine the health of systems. The key lagging indicator used to determine system health was availability, which is the percentage of time that a facility was ready for operation compared to the time the facility was demanded for operation. Availability was a good indicator of health in the waste storage mission of Tank Farms, where safe storage was the most important function of the facility, and where maintenance outage windows were typically long-duration. In current and future operations, outage windows are reducing, resulting in the need for much more reliable systems. Systems that have had high availability may suddenly become inoperable due to a failed component or sub-system. In several instances, the use of availability as an indicator of system health failed to predict system/equipment failure before its occurrence. In discussions with other DOE contractors, a set of reliability tools, including leading indicators of health, has been implemented in the CSE program. This primarily involves the use of failure modes and effects analysis and the study of equipment failure to develop system monitoring plans that focus on trending data to detect oncoming equipment failure ahead of time. In addition, the use of a Plant Health Committee has added significantly to the paradigm shift from a corrective maintenance philosophy to the use of predictive and preventive maintenance. The Plant Health Committee is a chartered team consisting of Engineering, Operations, and Maintenance personnel. CSEs use this forum to present the results of their performance monitoring, including the presentation of health via leading health indicators. The most positive aspect of this committee is the communication that it creates within these critical organizations. The Operations and Maintenance organization benefit from focusing maintenance on the reliability-centered focus provided by Engineering. Engineering benefits from the operational experience of the Operations organization and from the failure data that can be provided by Maintenance personnel. The continued use of the Plant Health Committee is expected to further decrease maintenance outage times, in better support of oncoming 24/7 operations. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Nickel-rich, volatile depleted iron meteorites: Relationships and formation processes

Ungrouped iron meteorites Tishomingo, Willow Grove, and Chinga, and group IVB iron meteorites, are Ni-rich. Similarities include enrichments of 10–100 × CI for some refractory siderophile elements, and equivalent depletions in more volatile siderophile elements. Superimposed on the overall enrichment/depletion trend, certain siderophile elements (P, W, Fe, Mo) are depleted relative to elements of similar volatility. All three ungrouped irons derive from parent bodies formed in the early Solar System. Willow Grove and Chinga are characterized by cosmic ray exposure corrected 182 W/ 184 W consistent with metal-silicate segregation on their parent bodies within 1–3 Myr of Solar System formation, within the age range determined for segregation of magmatic iron meteorite parent bodies, including group IVB irons. Tishomingo is characterized by a younger model age 4–5 Myr subsequent to Solar System formation, reflecting either late stage melting resulting from 26 Al decay, or an impact resetting. The discovery of stishovite in Tishomingo, indicating exposure to a minimum shock pressure of 8–9 GPa, is consistent with the latter. Stishovite in Tishomingo and chromite included in troilite-daubréelite in IVB irons allows oxygen isotopic composition comparison between these meteorites. Different mass independent oxygen isotopic compositions of IVB irons and Tishomingo indicate genetically distinct parent bodies. By contrast, mass independent Mo isotopic compositions overlap within analytical uncertainties, indicating a similar, carbonaceous chondrite (CC) type genetic heritage. Molybdenum and 183 W isotopic data for Chinga and Willow Grove indicate derivation from CC type parent bodies. Willow Grove shares Mo and 183 W isotopic compositions with the Ni-rich South Byron Trio (SBT) grouplet and the Milton pallasite. These Ni-rich meteorites likely formed in the same general nebular environment as other CC planetesimals, likely the outer Solar System. Highly siderophile element (HSE) abundances of Willow Grove and Tishomingo are similar to some IVB meteorites, consistent with formation by moderate degrees of fractional crystallization from initial metallic melts with low S and P, and modestly fractionated HSE. The comparable HSE abundances of Tishomingo and Willow Grove to some IVB irons, yet substantially higher Ni concentrations, indicate formation on parent bodies with lower bulk HSE abundances or HSE concentration in proportionally smaller volumes of metal. HSE abundances in Chinga are considerably lower than in IVB irons, highly fractionated, and processes responsible for these remain elusive. For IVB irons and these ungrouped irons, high temperature condensation likely dominated the enrichment and depletion of the refractory and volatile siderophile elements, respectively. Parent body degassing may have also played a role. Relative depletion of volatile siderophile elements is not, however, a universal feature of high-Ni meteorites. The SBT and Milton pallasite are Ni-rich, but less depleted in the more volatile siderophile elements. Nickel enrichment was likely driven by oxidation of Fe metal during parent body accretion or core segregation. Oxidation of the Tishomingo and Willow Grove parent bodies may have occurred at ~ IW + 1, indicated by relative Mo and W depletions due to metal/water reaction during differentiation. Late-stage reduction, indicated by the presence of Cr-bearing sulfides in Tishomingo and IVB irons, may have resulted from exhaustion of the oxidant.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Governance and resilience as entry points for transforming food systems in the countdown to 2030

Due to complex interactions, changes in any one area of food systems are likely to impact—and possibly depend on—changes in other areas. Here we present the first annual monitoring update of the indicator framework proposed by the Food Systems Countdown Initiative, with new qualitative analysis elucidating interactions across indicators. Since 2000, we find that 20 of 42 indicators with time series have been trending in a desirable direction, indicating modest positive change. Qualitative expert elicitation assessed governance and resilience indicators to be most connected to other indicators across themes, highlighting entry points for action—particularly governance action. Literature review and country case studies add context to the assessed interactions across diets, environment, livelihoods, governance and resilience indicators, helping different actors understand and navigate food systems towards desirable change.

Schneider, Kate R. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Washingto↗

A Climatology of Clear-Air Turbulence and Mountain Wave Turbulence Throughout the Stratosphere Using MERRA-2 Data

Forty years of MERRA-2 reanalysis data is used to calculate twenty-nine unique indices for both clear-air turbulence (CAT) and mountain wave turbulence (MWT) throughout the stratosphere. The indices are combined into a single estimate of turbulence intensity for both CAT and MWT for five latitudinal domains. These indices have previously been applied at commercial flight levels, but this work is the first time such indices have been evaluated for estimating turbulence throughout the entire stratosphere. The results indicate that turbulence throughout the stratosphere is generally around four-times more intense in the winter season and increases in intensity with altitude. The data suggests the strongest source of CAT in each hemisphere is the polar vortex in the winter stratosphere above 50 hPa. The strongest sources of MWT are the Himalayas and the Andes in the lower stratosphere. The relationship between CAT and the quasi-biennial oscillation is also examined and indicates that easterly tropical winds are associated with the most intense turbulence. The trends in the climatology of CAT over forty years were compared indicating a significant increase in turbulence intensity in the upper stratosphere, and a weaker but still significant decrease in turbulence intensity in the lower stratosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

EPCAPE-PT-LANL Measurements: Single Particle Soot Photometer

Coastal cities offer a unique environment for studying aerosol-cloud interactions and the effects of urban emissions on cloud properties. As part of the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE), the Partitioning Thrust by Los Alamos National Laboratory (EPCAPE-PT-LANL) was conducted. Our campaign focused on measuring the optical and chemical properties of aerosols and their interactions within marine stratocumulus clouds in La Jolla, California. EPCAPE-PT-LANL enhances the primary goals of EPCAPE through innovative observations of vapor-phase transitions between aerosols and cloud droplets, the impact of black carbon on aerosol-cloud dynamics, and the effects of cloud processing on aerosol optical properties. Instrument: Single Particle Soot Photometer (Droplet Measurements Technology) Data Notes: Contact us if you want additional data products from this instrument. Reported data is the black carbon (rBC) number and mass concentration with diagnostic flags. The SP2 measures incandescence from particles that is induced with a 1064 Nd-YAG laser. Particles that absorb the laser energy and then emit radiation is assumed to contain black carbon. The amount of intensity of radiation is related to the mass of absorbing material in the particle. Here, we calibrate the incandescence intensity to size selected Regal Black (Cabot) nebulized from solution. Data provided for the EPCAPE campaign used the combined broadband high-gain + low-gain channels (BHBL). Each channel has a lower threshold of detection equivalent to 2-s of the respective channel noise. Thresholding has been applied to select between the high-gain and low-gain channels. The detection limit is 80-540 nm (Deq) or 0.36- 55 fg. It is assumed that rBC is the only aerosol type that is in significant concentration in the sampled atmosphere that absorbs the laser energy. Particle data are integrated over 10 second windows to calculate a rBC number and mass concentration. QC/QA: • Diagnostic flags that impacted measured concentration: - Sample, Sheath, and Purge Flow Rates: Despite observing fluctuations in all flows, the rBC detection and mass quantification are generally observed to be stable, although large changes in sample flow rate did impact detection efficiency. A flag was implemented for sample flow deviations >12 cm3/min from the set point averaged over 30 seconds - Laser Power: Detection efficiency decreases with laser power and deviations in laser power also affect mass quantification. Flag for laser power is set for deviations in laser current from the set value >5 mA. - Primary Detector Threshold: Primary thresholding is the signal value which determines whether a “particle” is recorded. Thresholding errors occur when the threshold value is too HIGH and real particles are ignored. • Several periods without data: - 16-18 Nov: Ultra Zero Air generator failure, flows deviated significantly from set points. rBC # conc recovered but questionable. - 20-21 Nov: Offline for calibrations for several hours each day. - 25-27 Nov: Data is missing. - 30 Nov: Power outage 3 Dec: SP2 hard-drive full. - 3 Dec: Power Outage Header: - BHBL_NumbConc[#/cc]: Refers to the number concentration of refractory black carbon (rBC) measured from combined broadband high-gain and low-gain channels, expressed in particles per cubic centimeter. - BHBL_BCMass_Conc[ug/m3]: Refers to the mass concentration of refractory black carbon (rBC) measured from combined broadband high-gain and low-gain channels, expressed in micrograms per cubic meter. - NoData_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag that indicates whether no data was recorded during a measurement. - NoBC_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating whether no black carbon particles were recorded during the measurement. - Laser_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating deviations in laser current during the measurement. - SampleFlow_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating deviations from the set sample flow rate during the measurement. - PrimThresh_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating deviations from the set primary threshold during the measurement, potentially ignoring real particles. - Manual_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating manual intervention or adjustments during the measurement. - CVI_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating whether the Counterflow Virtual Impactor (CVI) was active or inactive during the measurement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Independent Orbiter Assessment (IOA): Analysis of the displays and controls subsystem

The results of the Independent Orbiter Assessment (IOA) of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Critical Items List (CIL) are presented. The IOA approach features a top-down analysis of the hardware to determine failure modes, criticality, and potential critical items. To preserve independence, this analysis was accomplished without reliance upon the results contained within the NASA FMEA/CIL documentation. This report documents the independent analysis results corresponding to the Orbiter Displays and Controls (D and C) subsystem hardware. The function of the D and C hardware is to provide the crew with the monitor, command, and control capabilities required for management of all normal and contingency mission and flight operations. The D and C hardware for which failure modes analysis was performed consists of the following: Acceleration Indicator (G-METER); Head Up Display (HUD); Display Driver Unit (DDU); Alpha/Mach Indicator (AMI); Horizontal Situation Indicator (HSI); Attitude Director Indicator (ADI); Propellant Quantity Indicator (PQI); Surface Position Indicator (SPI); Altitude/Vertical Velocity Indicator (AVVI); Caution and Warning Assembly (CWA); Annunciator Control Assembly (ACA); Event Timer (ET); Mission Timer (MT); Interior Lighting; and Exterior Lighting. Each hardware item was evaluated and analyzed for possible failure modes and effects. Criticality was assigned based upon the severity of the effect for each failure mode.

Trahan, W. H.↗

Aircraft maneuver envelope warning system

A maneuver envelope warning system for an aircraft having operating limits, operating condition sensors and an indicator driver. The indicator driver has a plurality of visual indicators. The indicator driver determines a relationship between sensed operating conditions and the operating limits; such as, a ratio therebetween. The indicator driver illuminates a number of the indicators in proportion to the determined relationship. The position of the indicators illuminated represents to a pilot in an easily ascertainable manner whether the operational conditions are approaching operational limits of the aircraft, and the degree to which operational conditions lie within or exceed operational limits.

Bivens, Courtland C.↗

Comprehensive stellar population models and the disentanglement of age and metallicity effects

The construction of detailed models for intermediate and old stellar populations is described. Input parameters include metallicity (-2 less than (Fe/H) less than 0.5), single-burst age (between 1.5 and 17 Gyr), and initial mass function (IMF) exponent. Quantities output include broadband magnitudes, spectral energy distributions, surface brightness fluctuation magnitudes, and a suite of 21 absorption feature indices. The models are checked against a wide variety of available observations. Examinations of model output yield the following conclusions. (1) If the percentage change delta age/delta Z approximately equals 3/2 for two populations, they will appear almost identical in most indices. A few indices break this degeneracy by being either more abundance sensitive (Fe4668, Fe5015, Fe5709, and Fe5782) or more age sensitive (G4300, H beta, and presumably higher order Balmer lines) than usual. (2) Present uncertainties in stellar evolution are of the same magnitude as the effects of IMF and Y in the indices studied. (3) Changes in abundance ratios (like (Mg/Fe)) are predicted to be readily apparent in the spectra of old stellar populations. (4) The I-band flux of a stellar population is predicted to be nearly independent of metallicity and only modestly sensitive to age. The I band is therefore recommended for standard candle work or studies of M/L in galaxies. Other conclusions stem from this work. (1) Intercomparison of models and observations of two TiO indices seem to indicate variation of the (V/Ti) ratio among galaxies, but it is not clear how this observation ties into the standard picture of chemical enrichment. (2) Current estimates of (Fe/H) for the most metal-rich globulars that are based on integrated indices are probably slightly too high. (3) Colors of population models from different authors exhibit a substantial range. At solar metallicity and 13 Gyr, this range corresponds to an age error of roughly +/- 7 Gyr. Model colors from different authors applied in a differential sense have smaller uncertainties. (4) In the present models the dominant error for colors is probably the transformation from stellar atmospheric parameters to stellar colors. (5) Stellar B - V is difficult to model, and current spreads among different authors can reach 0.2 mag. (6) If known defects in the stellar flux library are corrected, the population model colors of this work in passbands redder than U would be accurate to roughly 0.03 mag in an absolute sense. These corrections are not made in the tables of model output.

Worthey, Guy↗

Microcracking of Materials for Space

The effect of thermal-cycling-induced microcracking in fiber-reinforced polymer matrix composites is studied. Specific attention is focused on microcrack density as a function of the number of thermal cycles, and the effect of microcracking on the dimensional stability of composite materials. Changes in laminate coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) and laminate stiffness are of primary concern. Included in the study are materials containing four different Thornel fiber types: a PAN-based T50 fiber and three pitch-based fibers, P55, P75, and P120. The fiber stiffnesses range from 55 Msi to 120 Msi. The fiber CTE's range from -0.50 x 1O(exp -6)/degrees F to -0.80 x 10(exp -6)/degrees F. Also included are three matrix types: Fiberite's 934 epoxy, Amoco's ERL1962 toughened epoxy, and YLA's RS3 cyanate ester. The lamination sequences of the materials considered include a cross-ply configuration, [0/90](sub 2s), and two quasi-isotropic configurations, [0/+45/-45/90](sub s), and [0/+45/90/-45](sub s). The layer thickness of the materials range from a nominal 0.001 in. to 0.005 in. In addition to the variety of materials considered, three different thermal cycling temperature ranges are considered. These temperature ranges are +/-250 degrees F, +/-l5O degrees F, and +/-50 degrees F. The combination of these material and geometric parameters and temperature ranges, combined with thermal cycling to thousands of cycles, makes this one of the most comprehensive studies of thermal-cycling-induced microcracking to date. Experimental comparisons are presented by examining the effect of layer thickness, fiber type, matrix type, and thermal cycling temperature range on microcracking and its influence on the laminates. Results regarding layer thickness effects indicate that thin-layer laminates microcrack more severely than identical laminates with thick layers. For some specimens in this study, the number of microcracks in thin-layer specimens exceeds that in thick-layer specimens by more than a factor of two. Despite the higher number of microcracks in the thin-layer specimens, small changes in CTE after thousands of cycles indicate that the thin-layer specimens are relatively unaffected by the presence of these cracks compared to the thick-layer specimens. Results regarding fiber type indicate that the number of microcracks and the change in CTE after thousands of cycles in the specimens containing PAN-based fibers are less than in the specimens containing comparable stiffness pitch-based fibers. Results for specimens containing the different pitch-based fibers indicate that after thousands of cycles, the number of microcracks in the specimens does not depend on the modulus or CTE of the fiber. The change in laminate CTE does, however, depend highly on the stiffness and CTE of the fiber. Fibers with higher stiffness and more negative CTE exhibit the lowest change in laminate CTE as a result of thermal cycling. The overall CTE of these specimens is, however, more negative as a result of the more negative CTE of the fiber. Results regarding matrix type based on the +/-250 degree F temperature range indicate that the RS3 cyanate ester resin system exhibits the greatest resistance to microcracking and the least change in CTE, particularly for cycles numbering 3000 and less. Extrapolations to higher numbers of cycles indicate, however, that the margin of increased performance is expected to decrease with additional thermal cycling. Results regarding thermal cycling temperature range depend on the matrix type considered and the layer thickness of the specimens. For the ERL1962 resin system, microcrack saturation is expected to occur in all specimens, regardless of the temperature range to which the specimens are exposed. By contrast, the RS3 resin system demonstrates a threshold effect such that cycled to less severe temperature ranges, microcracking does not occur. For the RS3 specimens with 0.005 in. layer thickness, no microcracking or changes in CTE are observed in specimens cycled between +/-150 degree F or +/- 50 degree F. For the RS3 specimens with 0.002 in. layer thickness, no microcracking or changes in CTE are observed in specimens cycled between +/-50 degree F. Results regarding laminate stiffness indicate negligible change in laminate stiffness due to thermal cycling for the materials and geometries considered in this investigation. The study includes X-ray examination of the specimens, showing that cracks observed at the edge of the specimens penetrate the entire width of the specimen. Glass transition temperatures of the specimens are measured, showing that resin chemistry is not altered as a result of thermal cycling. Results are also presented based on a one-dimensional shear lag analysis developed in the literature. The analysis requires material property information that is difficult to obtain experimentally. Using limited data from the present investigation, material properties associated with the analysis are modified to obtain reasonable agreement with measured microcrack densities. Based on these derived material properties, the analysis generally overpredicts the change in laminate CTE. Predicted changes in laminate stiffness show reasonable correlation with experimentally measured values.

Brown, Timothy L.↗

Solar Cycle Predictions Near Sunspot Minimum

Observations of solar magnetic activity and the dynamics of the solar convection zone have produced severe constraints on models of the Sun's magnetic dynamo. These constraints are so severe that, at present, we do not have numerical models that can accept the current conditions and then march forward in time to predict future activity. Given this state of solar dynamo theory we are forced to examine previous behavior to discover patterns and trends that afford us some measure of predictability. Here we examine the behavior of several indicators of solar activity near solar minimum that are well correlated with the amplitude of the following solar maximum to predict the level of solar activity over cycle 23. Sunspot numbers, areas, and positions are useful for characterizing solar cycle behavior due to the extent of the data (12 cycles or more). These data exhibit several patterns that relate future activity to past behavior. With the Odd-Even effect the odd numbered cycles have been larger than their even numbered predecessors for each of the last six cycle pairs. With the Amplitude-Period effect short period cycles have been followed by large amplitude cycles and long period cycles have been followed by small amplitude cycles for 10 of the last 13 cycles. With the Maximum-Minimum effect the sunspot number at minimum is directly correlated with the sunspot number at maximum for a given cycle. The geomagnetic indices aa and Ap are also related to solar activity by the connections between disturbances in the solar wind and variations in the Earth's magnetic field. Like the Maximum-Minimum effect for sunspots, the size of the aa and Ap indices at minimum are directly related to the amplitude of the following maximum. The number of geomagnetically disturbed days (days with Ap >= 25) over the course of a cycle is another indicator for the size of the next cycle. The aa and Ap indices can each be separated into a component in phase with the current sunspot cycle and an "extended cycle" component that is directly related to the following cycle. Individually each of these indicators provides some measure of predictive ability for the amplitudes of previous cycles. Taken in combination we find that the predictions are much more accurate. Our multi-variate analysis indicates that a maximum sunspot number of 160 +/- 20 should occur near the end of 1999 for cycle 23.

Hathaway, David H.↗

Airborne Hyperspectral Imagery for the Detection of Agricultural Crop Stress

Multispectral digital imagery from aircraft or satellite is presently being used to derive basic assessments of crop health for growers and others involved in the agricultural industry. Research indicates that narrow band stress indices derived from hyperspectral imagery should have improved sensitivity to provide more specific information on the type and cause of crop stress, Under funding from the NASA Earth Observation Commercial Applications Program (EOCAP) we are identifying and evaluating scientific and commercial applications of hyperspectral imagery for the remote characterization of agricultural crop stress. During the summer of 1999 a field experiment was conducted with varying nitrogen treatments on a production corn-field in eastern Nebraska. The AVIRIS (Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer) hyperspectral imager was flown at two critical dates during crop development, at two different altitudes, providing images with approximately 18m pixels and 3m pixels. Simultaneous supporting soil and crop characterization included spectral reflectance measurements above the canopy, biomass characterization, soil sampling, and aerial photography. In this paper we describe the experiment and results, and examine the following three issues relative to the utility of hyperspectral imagery for scientific study and commercial crop stress products: (1) Accuracy of reflectance derived stress indices relative to conventional measures of stress. We compare reflectance-derived indices (both field radiometer and AVIRIS) with applied nitrogen and with leaf level measurement of nitrogen availability and chlorophyll concentrations over the experimental plots (4 replications of 5 different nitrogen levels); (2) Ability of the hyperspectral sensors to detect sub-pixel areas under crop stress. We applied the stress indices to both the 3m and 18m AVIRIS imagery for the entire production corn field using several sub-pixel areas within the field to compare the relative sensitivity of each stress index; and (3) Comparative sensitivity of stress indices to realistic measurement uncertainties. We compare the stress indices calculated with several levels of spectral uncertainty (by shifting the wavelengths) and reflectance uncertainty (by systematically varying the reflectance retrieval code initialization).

Cassady, Philip E.↗