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NASA NTRS2008

Civil Service Workforce Market Supply and the Effect on the Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) that may effect the Productivity Factors for Future NASA Missions

The upcoming retirement of the Baby Boomers on the horizon will leave a performance gap between younger generation (the future NASA decision makers) and the gray beards. This paper will reflect on the average age of workforce across NASA Centers, the Aerospace Industry and other Government Agencies, like DoD. This papers will dig into Productivity and Realization Factors and how they get applied to bimonthly (payroll data) for true FTE calculations that could be used at each of the NASA Centers and other business systems that are on the forefront in being implemented. This paper offers some comparative costs solutions, from simple - full time equivalent (FTE) cost estimating relationships CERs, to complex - CERs for monthly time-phasing activities for small research projects that start and get completed within a government fiscal year. This paper will present the results of a parametric study investigating the cost-effectiveness of different alternatives performance based cost estimating relationships (CERs) and how they get applied into the Center s forward pricing rate proposals (FPRP). True CERs based on the relationship of a younger aged workforce will have some effects on labor rates used in both commercial cost models and internal home-grown cost models which may impact the productivity factors for future NASA missions.

Sterk, Steve↗
NASA NTRS2006

Projecting Future Urbanization with Prescott College's Spatial Growth Model to Promote Environmental Sustainability and Smart Growth, A Case Study in Atlanta, Georgia

Planning is an integral element of good management and necessary to anticipate events not merely respond to them. Projecting the quantity and spatial distribution of urban growth is essential to effectively plan for the delivery of city services and to evaluate potential environmental impacts. The major drivers of growth in large urban areas are increasing population, employment opportunities, and quality of life attractors such as a favorable climate and recreation opportunities. The spatial distribution of urban growth is dictated by the amount and location of developable land, topography, energy and water resources, transportation network, climate change, and the existing land use configuration. The Atlanta region is growing very rapidly both in population and the consumption of forestland or low-density residential development. Air pollution and water availability are significant ongoing environmental issues. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model (SGM) was used to make growth projections for the metropolitan Atlanta region to 2010,2020 and 2030 and results used for environmental assessment in both business as usual and smart growth scenarios. The Prescott SGM is a tool that uses an ESRI ArcView extension and can be applied at the parcel level or more coarse spatial scales and can accommodate a wide range of user inputs to develop any number of growth rules each of which can be weighted depending on growth assumptions. These projections were used in conjunction with meteorological and air quality models to evaluate future environmental impacts. This presentation will focus on the application of the SGM to the 13-County Atlanta Regional Commission planning jurisdiction as a case study. The SGM will be described, including how rule sets are developed and the decision process for allocation of future development to available land use categories. Data inputs required to effectively run the model will be discussed. Spatial growth projections for ten, twenty, and thirty year planning horizons will be presented and results discussed, including regional climate and air quality impacts.

Estes, Maurice G., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Evaluation of Coatings and Materials for Future Radiators

Radiators are used to reject energy from space vehicles through radiant heat transfer. They are typically the largest component in a vehicle's thermal control system and can have a large impact on the vehicle design and operation. NASA s current vision for exploration dictates that radiators for a Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), a Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM), and a lunar base will need to be developed. These applications present new challenges when compared to previous radiators on the Space Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS). In addition, many technological advances have been made that could positively impact future radiator design. This paper outlines new requirements for future radiators and documents a trade study performed to select the some promising technologies for further evaluation. The technologies include K1100 based carbon composites for the radiator surface as well as Optical Solar Reflectors (OSRs), a lithium based white paint, and electrochromic thin films for optical coatings. Coupons were made using these materials and tests were performed to characterize their performance. Testing included evaluating structural and thermal properties of the carbon composites, thermal cycling, launch pad weather simulation, and exposure to solar wind, and Ultraviolet (UV) radiation.

Tuan, George C.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Role of Lidar Technology in Future NASA Space Missions

The past success of lidar instruments in space combined with potentials of laser remote sensing techniques in improving measurements traditionally performed by other instrument technologies and in enabling new measurements have expanded the role of lidar technology in future NASA missions. Compared with passive optical and active radar/microwave instruments, lidar systems produce substantially more accurate and precise data without reliance on natural light sources and with much greater spatial resolution. NASA pursues lidar technology not only as science instruments, providing atmospherics and surface topography data of Earth and other solar system bodies, but also as viable guidance and navigation sensors for space vehicles. This paper summarizes the current NASA lidar missions and describes the lidar systems being considered for deployment in space in the near future.

Amzajerdian, Farzin↗
NASA NTRS2008

Ares V and Future Very Large Launch Vehicles to Enable Major Astronomical Missions

The current NASA architecture planned to return humans to the lunar surface includes the Ares V heavy lift launch vehicle designed primarily to carry the Altair lunar lander and to be available before about 2020. However. the capabilities of this system (and its variants) are such that adapting the vehicle to launch very large optical systems could achieve major scientific goals that are not otherwise possible. For example, an 8-m monolith UV/visual/IR telescope appears able to be launched to the Sun-Earth L2 location by an Ares V with a 10-m fairing. Even larger apertures that are deployed or assembled in space seem possible, which may take advantage of other elements of NASA's future human spaceflight architecture. Alternatively. multiple elements of a spatial array or two or three astronomical observatories might he launched simultaneously. That is, Ares V appears to offer the astronomy communities an opportunity to put into orbit extremely capable observatories, in addition to being a key element of NASA's current architecture for human spaceflight. For the past year, a number of scientists and engineers have been eva1uating concepts for astronomical observatories that take advantage of future large launch vehicles, including the science goals of such missions and design modifications to the vehicle to enable the observatories. In parallel, members of the Solar System science communities have likewise been considering what major science goals can be achieved if new, extremely capable launch systems become available.

Thronson, Harley↗
NASA NTRS2008

Ares V and Future Very Large Launch Vehicles to Enable Major Astronomical Missions

The current NASA architecture intended to return humans to the lunar surface includes the Ares V cargo launch vehicle, which is planned to be available within a decade. The capabilities designed for Ares V would permit an 8.8-m diameter, 55 mT payload to be carried to Sun-Earth L1,2 locations. That is, this vehicle could launch very large optical systems to achieve major scientific goals that would otherwise be very difficult. For example, an 8-m monolith UV/visual/IR telescope appears able to be launched to a Sun-Earth L2 location. Even larger apertures that are deployed or assembled seem possible. Alternatively, multiple elements of a spatial array or two or three astronomical observatories might be launched simultaneously. Over the years, scientists and engineers have been evaluating concepts for astronomical observatories that use future large launch vehicles. In this presentation, we report on results of a recent workshop held at NASA Ames Research Center that have improved understanding of the science goals that can be achieved using Ares V. While such a vehicle uniquely enables few of the observatory concepts considered at the workshop, most have a baseline mission that can be flown on existing or near-future vehicles. However, the performance of the Ares V permits design concepts (e.g., large monolithic mirrors) that reduce complexity and risk.

Thronson, Harley A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Quantifying the Global Fresh Water Budget: Capabilities from Current and Future Satellite Sensors

The global water cycle is complex and its components are difficult to measure, particularly at the global scales and with the precision needed for assessing climate impacts. Recent advances in satellite observational capabilities, however, are greatly improving our knowledge of the key terms in the fresh water flux budget. Many components of the of the global water budget, e.g. precipitation, atmospheric moisture profiles, soil moisture, snow cover, sea ice are now routinely measured globally using instruments on satellites such as TRMM, AQUA, TERRA, GRACE, and ICESat, as well as on operational satellites. New techniques, many using data assimilation approaches, are providing pathways toward measuring snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, ground water, ice mass, as well as improving the measurement quality for other components of the global water budget. This paper evaluates these current and developing satellite capabilities to observe the global fresh water budget, then looks forward to evaluate the potential for improvements that may result from future space missions as detailed by the US Decadal Survey, and operational plans. Based on these analyses, and on the goal of improved knowledge of the global fresh water budget under the effects of climate change, we suggest some priorities for the future, based on new approaches that may provide the improved measurements and the analyses needed to understand and observe the potential speed-up of the global water cycle under the effects of climate change.

Hildebrand, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2007

Using Arctic Data for Magnetospheric Modeling: Current State and Future Perspectives

Geomagnetic storms are the most dramatic manifestations of solar influences on the magnetosphere. Storms are accompanied by substantial Space Weather effects. For these, as well as for scientific reasons, storms have been a special target of magnetospheric modeling for quite some time. Accordingly, there has been considerable interest and success in improving the application of magnetospheric models to storm-time dynamics, an to compare to data from arctic observatories. In this presentation, we present an overview of CCMC-studies of storm-time model capabilities, and we will provide an overall assessment of capabilities. In addition, we will present an analysis of future challenges, and we will suggest strategies for future model development.

Hesse, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2008

Civil Service Workforce Market Supply and the Effect on Cost Estimating Relationship (CERS) that May Effect the Productivity Factors for Future NASA Missions

The upcoming retirement of the Baby Boomers will leave a workforce age gap between the younger generation (the future NASA decision makers) and the gray beards. This paper will reflect on the average age of the workforce across NASA Centers, the Aerospace Industry and other Government Agencies, like DoD. This paper will dig into Productivity and Realization Factors and how they get applied to bi-monthly (payroll) data for true full-time equivalent (FTE) calculations that could be used at each of the NASA Centers and other business systems that are on the forefront in being implemented. This paper offers some comparative costs analysis/solutions, from simple FTE cost-estimating relationships (CERs) versus CERs for monthly time-phasing activities for small research projects that start and get completed within a government fiscal year. This paper will present the results of a parametric study investigating the cost-effectiveness of alternative performance-based CERs and how they get applied into the Center's forward pricing rate proposals (FPRP). True CERs based on the relationship of a younger aged workforce will have some effects on labor rates used in both commercial cost models and other internal home-grown cost models which may impact the productivity factors for future NASA missions.

Sterk, Steve↗
NASA NTRS2006

Three Decades of Precision Orbit Determination Progress, Achievements, Future Challenges and its Vital Contribution to Oceanography and Climate Research

Although satellite altimetry has been around for thirty years, the last fifteen beginning with the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon (TP) have yielded an abundance of significant results including: monitoring of ENS0 events, detection of internal tides, determination of accurate global tides, unambiguous delineation of Rossby waves and their propagation characteristics, accurate determination of geostrophic currents, and a multi-decadal time series of mean sea level trend and dynamic ocean topography variability. While the high level of accuracy being achieved is a result of both instrument maturity and the quality of models and correction algorithms applied to the data, improving the quality of the Climate Data Records produced from altimetry is highly dependent on concurrent progress being made in fields such as orbit determination. The precision orbits form the reference frame from which the radar altimeter observations are made. Therefore, the accuracy of the altimetric mapping is limited to a great extent by the accuracy to which a satellite orbit can be computed. The TP mission represents the first time that the radial component of an altimeter orbit was routinely computed with an accuracy of 2-cm. Recently it has been demonstrated that it is possible to compute the radial component of Jason orbits with an accuracy of better than 1-cm. Additionally, still further improvements in TP orbits are being achieved with new techniques and algorithms largely developed from combined Jason and TP data analysis. While these recent POD achievements are impressive, the new accuracies are now revealing subtle systematic orbit error that manifest as both intra and inter annual ocean topography errors. Additionally the construction of inter-decadal time series of climate data records requires the removal of systematic differences across multiple missions. Current and future efforts must focus on the understanding and reduction of these errors in order to generate a complete and consistent time series of improved orbits across multiple missions and decades required for the most stringent climate-related research. This presentation discusses the POD progress and achievements made over nearly three decades, and presents the future challenges, goals and their impact on altimetric derived ocean sciences.

Luthcke, Scott↗
NASA NTRS2008

Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) - From Technology Development to Future Flight Product

The Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) is being developed by Sunpower, Inc. under contract to NASA s Glenn Research Center (GRC) with critical technology support tasks lead by GRC. The ASC development, funded by NASA s Science Mission Directorate, started in 2003 as one of 10 competitively awarded contracts that were to address future Radioisotope Power System (RPS) advanced power conversion needs. The ASC technology has since evolved through progressive convertor builds and successful testing to demonstrate high conversion efficiency (38 %), low mass (1.3 kg), hermetic sealing, launch vibration simulation, EMI characterization, and is undergoing extended operation. The GRC and Sunpower team recently delivered three ASC-E machines to the Department of Energy (DOE) and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company, two units for integration onto the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Engineering Unit (ASRG EU) plus one spare. The design has recently been initiated for the ASC-E2, an evolution from the ASC-E that substitutes higher temperature materials enabling improved performance and higher reliability margins. This paper summarizes the history and status of the ASC project and discusses plans for this technology which enables RPS specific power of 8 W/kg for future NASA missions.

Wong, Wayne A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Bioinspired Engineering of Exploration Systems (BEES) - its Impact on Future Missions

This paper describes an overview of our "Bioinspired Engineering of Exploration Systems for Mars" ( "BEES for Mars") project. The BEES approach distills selected biologically inspired strategies utilizing motion cues/optic flow, bioinspired pattern recognition, biological visual and neural control systems, bioinspired sensing and communication techniques, and birds of prey inspired search and track algorithmic systems. Unique capabilities so enabled, provide potential solutions to future autonomous robotic space and planetary mission applications. With the first series of tests performed in September 2003, August 2004 and September 2004, we have demonstrated the BEES technologies at the El Mirage Dry Lakebed site in the Mojave Desert using Delta Wing experimental prototypes. We call these test flyers the "BEES flyer", since we are developing them as dedicated test platform for the newly developed bioinspired sensors, processors and algorithmic strategies. The Delta Wing offers a robust airframe that can sustain high G launches and offers ease of compact stowability and packaging along with scaling to small size and low ReynOld's number performance for a potential Mars deployment. Our approach to developing light weight, low power autonomous flight systems using concepts distilled from biology promises to enable new applications, of dual use to NASA and DoD needs. Small in size (0.5 -5 Kg) BEES Flyers are demonstrating capabilities for autonomous flight and sensor operability in Mars analog conditions. The BEES project team spans JPL, NASA Ames, Australian National University (ANU), Brigham Young University(BYU), DC Berkeiey, Analogic Computers Inc. and other institutions. The highlights from our recent flight demonstrations exhibiting new Mission enabling capabilities are described. Further, this paper describes two classes of potential new missions for Mars exploration: (1) the long range exploration missions, and (2) observation missions, for real time imaging of critical ephemeral phenomena, that can be enabled by use of BEES flyers. For example, such flyers can serve as a powerful black-box for critical descent and landing data and enablers for improved science missions complementing and supplementing the existing assets like landers and rovers by providing valuable exploration and quick extended low-altitude aerial coverage of the sites of interest by imaging them and distributing instruments to them. Imaging done by orbiters allows broad surface coverage at limited spatial resolution. Low altitude air-borne exploration of Mars offers a means for imaging large areas, perhaps up to several hundred kilometers, quickly and efficiently, providing a close-up birds-eye view of the planetary terrain and close-up approach to constrained difficult areas like canyons and craters. A novel approach to low-mass yet highly capable flyers is enabled by small aircraft equipped using sensors and processors and algorithms developed using BEES technology. This project is focused towards showing the direct impact of blending the best of artificial intelligence attributes and bioinspiration to create a leap beyond existing capability for our future Missions.

navigation↗
NASA NTRS2009

Future Directions in Ultraviolet Spectroscopy

The 'Future Directions in Ultraviolet Spectroscopy' conference was inspired by the accomplishments of the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) Mission. The FUSE mission was launched in June 1999 and spent over eight years exploring the far-ultraviolet universe, gathering over 64 million seconds of high-resolution spectral data on nearly 3000 astronomical targets. The goal of this conference was not only to celebrate the accomplishments of FUSE, but to look toward the future and understand the major scientific drivers for the ultraviolet capabilities of the next generation fo space observatories. Invited speakers presented discussions based on measurements made by FUSE and other ultraviolet instruments, assessed their connection with measurements made with other techniques and, where appropriate, discussed the implications of low-z measurements for high-z phenomena. In addition to the oral presentations, many participants presented poster papers. The breadth of these presentation made it clear that much good science is still in progress with FUSE data and that these result will continue to have relevance in many scientific areas.

Sonneborn, George↗
NASA NTRS2009

Large-Eddy Simulation: Current Capabilities, Recommended Practices, and Future Research

This paper presents the results of an activity by the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) Working Group of the AIAA Fluid Dynamics Technical Committee to (1) address the current capabilities of LES, (2) outline recommended practices and key considerations for using LES, and (3) identify future research needs to advance the capabilities and reliability of LES for analysis of turbulent flows. To address the current capabilities and future needs, a survey comprised of eleven questions was posed to LES Working Group members to assemble a broad range of perspectives on important topics related to LES. The responses to these survey questions are summarized with the intent not to be a comprehensive dictate on LES, but rather the perspective of one group on some important issues. A list of recommended practices is also provided, which does not treat all aspects of a LES, but provides guidance on some of the key areas that should be considered.

Georgiadis, Nicholas J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Powering the Future of Science and Exploration

This viewgraph presentation reviews NASA's future of science and space exploration. The topics include: 1) NASA's strategic goals; 2) NASA around the Country; 3) Marshall's History; 4) Marshall's Missions; 5) Marshall Statistics: From Exploration to Opportunity; 6) Propulsion and Transportation Systems; 7) Life Support systems; 8) Earth Science; 9) Space Science; 10) NASA Innovation Creates New Jobs, Markets, and Technologies; 11) NASA Inspires Future Generations of Explorers; and 12) Why Explore?

Miley, Steven C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Building on the Past - Looking to the Future: A Focus on Expanding Horizons - Part 2

The history of space endeavors stretches far from Robert Goddard s initial flights and will certainly extend far beyond the construction of the International Space Station. As society grows in knowledge of and familiarity with space, the focus of maintaining the safety of the crews and the habitability of the vehicles will be of the utmost importance to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) community. Through the years, Payload Safety has developed not only as a Panel, but also as part of the NASA community, striving to enhance the efficiency and understanding of how business should be conducted as more International Partners become involved. The recent accomplishments of the first docking of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) HII Transfer Vehicle (HTV 1) and completion of the Japanese Experiment Module (JEM) or KIBO and the Russian MRM2 to the International Space Station (ISS) mark significant steps for the future of ISS. 2010 will mark the final flights of the Shuttle and the completion of ISS assembly. Future delivery of humans and hardware will rely on the Russian Progress and Soyuz, the Japanese HII Transfer Vehicle (HTV), the European Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV) and US "Commercial Off-The-Shelf" (COTS) and Constellation vehicles. The International Partners (IPs) will have more capability in delivery as well as responsibility for review of hardware they deliver to assure safe operation. This is the second in a series of papers and presentations in what is hoped to be an annual update that illustrates challenges and lessons learned in the areas of communication (how hazard reports can be misunderstood), safety requirements (transitioning from Shuttle-centric to ISS-centric), and processes (review of hardware by RSC-E and Franchised ESA and JAXA PSRP) which have been vital in conducting the business of the Payload Safety Review Panel (PSRP). This year will focus on the items annotated above.

Guidry, Richard W.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Contributions to Future Stratospheric Climate Change: An Idealized Chemistry-Climate Model Sensitivity Study

Within the framework of an idealized model sensitivity study, three of the main contributors to future stratospheric climate change are evaluated: increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, ozone recovery, and changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). These three contributors are explored in combination and separately, to test the interactions between ozone and climate; the linearity of their contributions to stratospheric climate change is also assessed. In a simplified chemistry-climate model, stratospheric global mean temperature is most sensitive to CO2 doubling, followed by ozone depletion, then by increased SSTs. At polar latitudes, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere is more sensitive to changes in CO2, SSTs and O3 than is the Southern Hemisphere (SH); the opposing responses to ozone depletion under low or high background CO2 concentrations, as seen with present-day SSTs, are much weaker and are not statistically significant under enhanced SSTs. Consistent with previous studies, the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is found to increase in an idealized future climate; SSTs contribute most to this increase in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region, while CO2 and ozone changes contribute most in the stratosphere and mesosphere.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Exploration Life Support Critical Questions for Future Human Space Missions

Exploration Life Support (ELS) is a current project under NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate. The ELS Project plans, coordinates and implements the development of advanced life support technologies for human exploration missions in space. Recent work has focused on closed loop atmosphere and water systems for long duration missions, including habitats and pressurized rovers. But, what are the critical questions facing life support system developers for these and other future human missions? This paper explores those questions and how progress in the development of ELS technologies can help answer them. The ELS Project includes the following Elements: Atmosphere Revitalization Systems, Water Recovery Systems, Waste Management Systems, Habitation Engineering, Systems Integration, Modeling and Analysis, and Validation and Testing, which includes the Sub-Elements Flight Experiments and Integrated Testing. Systems engineering analysis by ELS seeks to optimize overall mission architectures by considering all the internal and external interfaces of the life support system and the potential for reduction or reuse of commodities. In particular, various sources and sinks of water and oxygen are considered along with the implications on loop closure and the resulting launch mass requirements. Systems analysis will be validated through the data gathered from integrated testing, which will demonstrate the interfaces of a closed loop life support system. By applying a systematic process for defining, sorting and answering critical life support questions, the ELS project is preparing for a variety of future human space missions

Kwert, Michael K.↗