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GOES I-M: A Retrospective Look at Image Navigation and Registration (INR), Jitter and Lessons Learned

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) I-M series of spacecraft was the second generation of United States meteorological observational platforms in geosynchronous orbit. They served as the principal Earth- viewing observational platforms for continuously monitoring dynamic weather events from the mid-1990s and into the 21st century. This paper will look back at the program framing key system attributes of the mission, which necessitated a multi-layered development approach to meet stringent meteorological instrument Line-of-Sight (LoS) pointing and pointing stability requirements. The overall approach involved understanding, correcting, and avoiding pointing errors across a broad frequency range including what would typically be called dynamic interaction and jitter. Background information will be provided covering the mission architecture and program drivers. The systems solution for man- aging and mitigating the deleterious influences of on-board disturbances in order to meet the challenging instrument LoS pointing and jitter requirements will be described, along with the ‘first of its kind’ Image Navigation and Registration system. A broad look back at the lessons learned that emerged from the GOES I- M experience will be presented, with the intent of capturing general and specific insights for developers of future missions having stringent payload instrument pointing requirements. These discussions will touch on such critical aspects as defining jitter and related pointing requirements, the importance of early system architectural decisions, understanding and reducing on-board disturbances, the balance of test and analysis, and the imperative for maximizing on-orbit operational flexibility in order to accommodate unexpected dynamic interactions.

Sudey, John↗

Modeling the Worst-Case-Scenario of Soil Drydown for Agricultural Drought Monitoring in Kansas Using NASA Earth Observations and In-situ Parameters

Climatologists in Kansas have observed rapid shifts from wet to dry conditions and rapid intensification of drought conditions for the state in recent years. As a leading state in agricultural production, drought events can lead to decreased crop yields and impact the state’s economy. The exponential decay of soil moisture content is a major consequence of drought and can exacerbate these impacts on agricultural production. This study examined the rate of soil moisture drydown in Kansas to understand and monitor the worst-case-scenario of short-term soil water shortage. Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) L-band Radiometer rootzone soil moisture imagery from March 2015 to June 2019 was used to estimate the minimum and maximum soil moisture capacity throughout the state. In situ soil moisture parameters, such as the exponential decay constant, were approximated from the Kansas Mesonet system. These variables were inputs into an exponential decay model that forecasted gridded rootzone soil moisture in a scenario that assumed no precipitation for a user-identified period of time. The forecasts were output on the order of weeks to capture the rapid shifts in soil moisture content. Another model was used to identify areas in Kansas currently below a given percentage of the relative soil moisture saturation, measured as a function of minimum, maximum, and current soil moisture. This model forecasted the number of days until each cell in the soil moisture grid reached the input percentage of relative soil moisture saturation. The gridded model outputs and workflow were developed in partnership with the Kansas Water Office and Kansas Office of the State Climatologist at Kansas State University, as a part of their drought monitoring efforts.

NASA DEVELOP↗

Improved Algorithm to Estimate Convective and Stratiform Rain from TRMM Microwave Radiometer Data

The rain rates associated with Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSS) deduced from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) follow the well known log-normal type frequency distribution characteristic of conventional radars and rain gauges. On the other hand, the current microwave radiometer rain retrieval algorithms cannot give good representations of convective and stratiform precipitation. Thus they capture poorly this log-normal character. In particular, this is noticed clearly over land areas. The objective of the present study is to improve TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) retrievals of convective and stratiform rain to a level comparable to the PR. For this purpose, we have developed a TMI rain retrieval algorithm that depends primarily on the 85 GHz brightness temperatures (Tbs) and their spatial distribution. We emphasize the 85 GHz channel because of its fine footprint size (about 5.5 km) and strong extinction property. The other spectral channels, because they are poorer in these respects, are given less importance. The brightness temperatures and spatial distribution information in the 85 GHz allows us to detect thunderstorms, or cumulonimbus clouds (Cbs), that are in different stages of development, as well as stratiform rain outside of these Cbs. Utilizing our retrieval technique, we have produced maps of convective and stratiform rain for several MCS events over land and ocean that agree well with those given by the PR. On average, the convective and stratiform rain rates given by our technique have an accuracy of about 15 % with respect to those given by the PR.

Prabhakara, C.↗

Quantum-Assisted Variational Segmentation for Image-to-Image Wildfire Detection Using Satellite Data

The quantum computing community has been searching for suitable applications to demonstrate the potential of near-term quantum devices. Quantum machine learning is a potential candidate, particularly using models that cannot be efficiently simulated with classical computers [1, 2]. This work focuses on a transition phase of quantum computers where the quantum machine learning model is still simulable classically but projected not to be simulable as the size of the model grows. Ultimately quantum computers may have advantages for high-dimensional real-world problems. Due to the limited number of qubits in current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices, the direct application of quantum computers in high dimensional data is not feasible. To remedy this problem, an encoder-decoder architecture can be utilized. The encoder model would transform the high-dimensional data into a compact representation, to a level that small quantum computers can be used today (or in the near future), and the decoder would take the quantum processed outputs back to the high-dimensional space. Addressing the two challenges of quantum machine learning, this work investigates a hybrid supervised generative model with a quantum Ising Born machine embedded as the latent distribution. The model contains four main parts (Figure 1.a.): (1) a U-NET architecture responsible for learning segmentation flow, (2) a Prior network responsible for learning an encoded latent distribution of the input data, (3) a Born machine which represents the latent distribution, and (4) a Posterior network in charge of learning the joint encoded latent distribution of inputs and target data. The initial model, proposed by [3], is optimized by (1) maximizing the overlap of the prior and posterior latent distributions, and (2) minimizing the segmentation loss. The proposed model is designed to be investigated in a simulation environment applied to the real-world application of wildfire segmentation. Specifically, the model is designed to solve the patchy wildfire segmentations of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) by taking the MODIS observations and using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite’s (VIIRS) consistent wildfire product as the target. The model solves patchy wildfire segmentations and provides insight into the epistemic errors sourced from model variation. The model utilizes the Born machine as a QUBO solver to represent the latent space as a Bernoulli distribution. The proposed configuration allows the variational segmentation model to leverage the true quantum probabilistic nature and derive a more expressive latent configuration, increasing the model performance in describing wildfire segmentations. The quantum probabilistic information of the Born machine is directly incorporated in the Kullback-Leibler divergence loss in the prior and posterior distributions, forcing the Bernoulli latent distribution to maximize the overlap of input and joint input-target distributions. The proposed model is then trained and compared with a baseline only consisting of direct Bernoulli latent distribution with no Born machine representing the latent space. The models are evaluated based on the segmentation metrics, such as precision, recall, intersect of union, with uncertainty boundaries accounting for the stochastic nature of the model. Our findings show that even in low latent-dimensional space (due to the limit in computational power of the classical quantum simulator), we are able to effectively capture the latent representation and hence the model performs better than the baseline. The findings are a projection for scaling the model into higher dimensional latent space with the Born machine surpassing the baseline performance. Figure 1. Sub-figure (a) demonstrates the architecture for the training phase. The model consists of a Prior and Posterior network that encode inputs and joint input-target data into compact representations, respectively. The Born machine represents the latent distribution, and the U-NET branch learns the segmentation patterns of the data. The stochasticity is introduced to the U-NET through its last layer to create meaningful but stochastic segmentations. Sub-figure (b) represents the inference phase where the model takes the stochastic behavior from the prior network and injects that into the U-NET. Each attempt of inference will generate different but similar segmentations from the same distribution of the wildfire event. REFERENCES [1] Coyle, B., Mills, D., Danos, V., & Kashefi, E. (2020). The Born supremacy: quantum advantage and training of an Ising Born machine. npj Quantum Information, 6(1), 1-11. [2] Liu, J. G., & Wang, L. (2018). Differentiable learning of quantum circuit born machines. Physical Review A, 98(6), 062324. [3] Kohl, S., Romera-Paredes, B., Meyer, C., De Fauw, J., Ledsam, J. R., Maier-Hein, K., ... & Ronneberger, O. (2018). A probabilistic u-net for segmentation of ambiguous images. Advances in neural information processing systems, 31.

quantum machine learning↗

Launch Complex 34, SWMU CCO542022 DNAPL Source Zone Operations, Maintenance, and Monitoring, Site-Wide Long-Term Monitoring, and Hot Spot 6 Air Sparge System Annual Performance Monitoring Report Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida

This Annual Performance Monitoring Report (PMR) for the Dense Non-Aqueous Phase Liquid (DNAPL) Source Zone (DSZ), Site-Wide Long-Term Monitoring (LTM), and Hot Spot (HS) 6 Air Sparge (AS) System presents the results of Year 13 operation of the hydraulic containment (HC) Interim Measure (IM), the results of performance monitoring direct-push technology (DPT) sampling and monitoring well sampling conducted in the DSZ, results of the biennial site-wide LTM event, and the results of operations and performance sampling of the HS 6 AS IM at Launch Complex 34 (LC34), located at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS), Florida. This site has been designated Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) CC054 under the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Corrective Action Program. For the site-wide biennial LTM event, a total of 55 monitoring wells were sampled for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in February 2023 and one well was sampled for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in December 2022. One well planned for VOC sampling was found to be destroyed and could not be sampled (CW0002). The LTM wells are screened in two lithologic zones: Layer 1 (0 to 25 feet below land surface [bls]) and Layer 2 (25 to 30 ft bls), and are located in the outlying areas of LC34 to monitor groundwater conditions within the Low-Concentration Plume (LCP), defined as concentrations exceeding Groundwater Cleanup Target Levels (GCTLs), and the High-Concentration Plume (HCP), defined as concentrations exceeding Natural Attenuation Default Concentrations (NADCs). Results from the biennial sampling event indicated overall plume stability and delineation for the plume, which extends over 300 acres. The operational period for Year 13 of the HCS was from April 1, 2022 to March 31, 2023. Operational runtime for the system was 90 percent during Year 13, with downtime events attributed to planned maintenance, system repairs, and power outages. As of March 31, 2023, a total of 313,673,241 cumulative gallons of groundwater containing 88,337 pounds of VOCs have been removed by the HCS. Influent concentrations of trichloroethene (TCE) have decreased since startup from approximately 280,000 μg/L (January 2010) to 12,000 μg/L (March 2023). During the reporting period, all effluent concentrations from the HCS (aqueous and vapor) were below regulatory reporting limits, indicating the system continues to operate as intended. Performance monitoring was conducted in December 2022 within the DSZ to evaluate TCE contamination. Groundwater samples were collected via DPT at nine locations, consistent with previous events between 2017 and 2021. Full vertical profile sampling was completed at each DPT from 8 to 98 feet bls, at 5-foot intervals. The DPT performance monitoring results are summarized in this PMR. The results revealed TCE remains at concentrations greater than 11,000 μg/L in the DSZ (1-percent solubility, indicative of DNAPL) at eight of the nine DPT locations and at depths ranging from 8 to 98 feet bls. In addition to DPT sampling, groundwater samples were collected from deep monitoring wells in the DSZ area (Layers 7 and 8) in December 2022 to verify vertical delineation. Layer 7/8 monitoring well results were non-detect in December 2022, with exception of three wells (IW0162, IW043D2, and IW044D2), where TCE, cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cDCE), and/or vinyl chloride (VC) were detected above GCTLs. These wells are screened 105 to 115 feet bls, which is below the existing recovery well capture zone. TCE was first detected in IW0162 in December 2021 and has since been sampled at least monthly to monitor TCE concentrations. The maximum TCE concentration during this operational period was 15,000 μg/L at IW0162 in March 2023. Because of the increased TCE concentrations in this well, a new recovery well (RW21D), screened 86 to 106 feet bls, was installed in January 2023 and incorporated into existing HCS operations. The HS 6 AS IM was initiated in 2018 with 160 AS wells, and expanded in 2019 with an additional 140 AS wells. Quarterly performance monitoring was reduced to semi-annual in 2020. The HS 6 AS system remained operational during the reporting period covered under this report. The results of the HS 6 system operation and semi-annual performance monitoring are summarized in this report. Semi-annual monitoring results collected in April and October 2022 show concentrations of contaminants of concern (cDCE, trans-1,2-dichloroethene, and vinyl chloride) are generally decreasing and not impacting the surface water drainage canal, indicating the HS 6 IM is meeting objectives. A Phase Two Expansion of the HS 6 AS IM was recently completed. As of the date of this report, the expansion became operational in August 2023 and the first quarter of monitoring was conducted in November 2023. Details of the construction, start-up, and performance monitoring will be included in a future Annual PMR. Overall, the tasks associated with Year 13 operation of the HC IM, operation of the HS 6 AS IM, and biennial site-wide sampling were performed in accordance with recommendations included in the previous 2021 LC34 (Year 12) annual report. Evaluation of results from the HC IM and HS 6 IM show that these systems are operating as designed and meeting performance objectives. Results from the site-wide biennial LTM program also show that the overall network of monitoring wells is adequate to continue monitoring plume-wide conditions.

Complex 34↗

Toroidal phase of post-disruption runaway electron loss to wall in presence of applied 3-D fields in DIII-D

The toroidal distribution of runaway electrons (REs) striking the centre post in DIII-D post-disruption RE final loss events is simulated utilizing the MARS-F code combined with the REORBIT module, by tracing the guiding-centre drift orbits of test REs in the presence of external (applied) plus internal (intrinsic instability) 3-D fields. To better recover the experimental results, three different equilibria with different safety factor profiles are adopted. Dominant resistive magnetohydrodynamic instabilities are found to be m/n=2/1, 3/2 and 1/1 modes (where m and n are the poloidal and toroidal mode numbers). Externally applied n=1 resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs), with both even and odd parity configuration, are considered in each equilibrium. Locking of MHD instability to the applied RMPs is simulated by minimizing the total perturbed magnetic energy in the plasma. Here, the simulated toroidal locations, where most REs strike in the presence of an edge m/n= 2/1 instability and the n=1 RMPs in even parity, are found to agree well with experiments. Modeling also captures the measured n = 2 RE loss pattern on the wall for experiments where an edge m/n=3/2 instability is dominant instead of the m/n=2/1 mode. The key overall findings include (a) the measured global RE toroidal impact pattern in experiments can be explained by a locked resistive kink instability, (b) the toroidal phase of the locked mode is well predicted by minimizing the total perturbed magnetic energy, and (c) this edge locked mode determines the toroidal phase of the peak RE wall impact.

Bai, Xue [University of California San Diego, La J↗

Developmental Testing of Habitability and Human Factors Tools and Methods During Neemo 15

Currently, no established methods exist to collect real-time human factors and habitability data while crewmembers are living aboard the International Space Station (ISS), traveling aboard other space vehicles, or living in remote habitats. Currently, human factors and habitability data regarding space vehicles and habitats are acquired at the end of missions during postflight crew debriefs. These debriefs occur weeks or often longer after events have occurred, which forces a significant reliance on incomplete human memory, which is imperfect. Without a means to collect real-time data, small issues may have a cumulative effect and continue to cause crew frustration and inefficiencies. Without timely and appropriate reporting methodologies, issues may be repeated or lost. TOOL DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION: As part of a directed research project (DRP) aiming to develop and validate tools and methods for collecting near real-time human factors and habitability data, a preliminary set of tools and methods was developed. These tools and methods were evaluated during the NASA Extreme Environments Mission Operations (NEEMO) 15 mission in October 2011. Two versions of a software tool were used to collect observational data from NEEMO crewmembers that also used targeted strategies for using video cameras to collect observations. Space habitability observation reporting tool (SHORT) was created based on a tool previously developed by NASA to capture human factors and habitability issues during spaceflight. SHORT uses a web-based interface that allows users to enter a text description of any observations they wish to report and assign a priority level if changes are needed. In addition to the web-based format, a mobile Apple (iOS) format was implemented, referred to as iSHORT. iSHORT allows users to provide text, audio, photograph, and video data to report observations. iSHORT can be deployed on an iPod Touch, iPhone, or iPad; for NEEMO 15, the app was provided on an iPad2.

Thaxton, S. S.↗

Development of the Suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis for Identification of Top Injury Risks in Lunar Missions and Training

A new Exploration Extravehicular Activity Services (xEVAS) suit is being designed to replace the current Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Artemis program to return astronauts to the lunar surface. This new suit will allow for increased range of motion compared to the current EMU and Apollo era suits and additional features will enhance the health and safety of exploration. With the design of lunar missions and the xEVAS suit progressing, it is important to consider possible injuries and injury mechanisms that could occur in the suit. To address these concerns, the suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis (IMEA) was developed to outline suited injury scenarios and rank them based on risk score. The IMEA documents possible scenarios and underlying mechanisms of injury. History has shown that more suit injuries occur during training than in flight; therefore, currently planned training events to prepare for lunar missions and tasks during lunar surface EVAs were considered. Each scenario is ranked with likelihood and consequence scorings based on our current understanding of suit and application of Artemis design reference missions. The scoring allowed identification of the high-risk cases that will drive further work in suited injury. Mechanisms of injury, injury outcomes, and mitigation strategies are evaluated within each scenario. The Suited Injury Summit was held on January 5, 2022, to vet the IMEA with external experts. This was an all-day virtual meeting with the suited injury team; ergonomists; suit engineers; safety engineers; the flight operations directorate; flight doctors; astronauts; astronaut strength, conditioning, and rehabilitation specialists (ASCRS); and external subject matter experts (SMEs). External SMEs consisted of surgeons with varying specialties. The intent of this meeting was to walk through the top injury risks identified in the analysis, identify any gaps that were not captured, and discuss mitigations. With participation from all groups, countless lessons-learned came from the Summit meeting. Using these, the top 10 risks have been identified: neutral buoyancy laboratory training, hand/glove injuries, poor suit fit, field training, specific EVA tasks/design of task, boots/ankle injuries, falls from heights, background radiation, repetitive contact, and ambulation/longdistance ambulation. Mitigation steps have also been determined for each of the top risks. The IMEA and documentation of top risks is a living document. Yearly meetings are planned to update the analysis and reevaluate top risks and mitigations. The IMEA is being used to drive work in suited injury, and this work will continue to evolve with IMEA and lunar mission updates.

Teresa Reiber↗

Preparing the Mars Relay Network for the Arrival of the Perseverance Rover at Mars

The Perseverance rover represents NASA’s latest achievement in Mars exploration. Landing successfully on 18 Feb 2021, the rover’s transmitted data during its entry, descent, and landing (EDL) were captured by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) orbiter. This data, broadcast in near-realtime to the world, allowed everyone to share in the excitement (and “terror”) of the day. The images returned thereafter included the first images of the new landing site, video of the landing itself taken from a variety of vantage points, and eventually the historic images of the first powered flight on another planet. Behind the scenes, the return of that data to Earth was accomplished via Mars orbiters operated by NASA and ESA, using three different ground tracking networks. Considered together, this Mars Relay Network (MRN) enabled the successful, timely, and unobtrusive return of the rover’s data. This paper describes the preparations taken by the participants of the MRN in anticipation of the arrival of Perseverance at Mars. These were not only focused on successfully acquiring the rover’s critical event telemetry during its EDL, but also on readying the network to return the rover’s data on an ongoing basis as it pursued its mission objectives. Included is a brief description of the MRN, which represents a highly successful international collaboration and continues as critical infrastructure for NASA’s and ESA’s ongoing Mars exploration. Also summarized are the activities performed prior to EDL, including landing site reconnaissance and mission test and training activities; those activities performed on EDL day, especially the recording, return, and processing of the rover’s critical event telemetry; and those activities that are now being performed on an ongoing basis during the rover’s surface operations, including an outline of the planning processes that enable relay services. Finally, a description of the performance of the network to-date on behalf of the Perseverance rover is given, summarizing the success of the network to provide support to both it and other spacecraft on the surface of Mars.

Srnka, Evan↗

Canopy cover and microtopography control precipitation-enhanced thaw of ecosystem-protected permafrost

Abstract Northern high-latitudes are projected to get warmer and wetter, which will affect rates of permafrost thaw and mechanisms by which thaw occurs. To better understand the impact of rain, as well as other factors such as snow depth, canopy cover, and microtopography, we instrumented a degrading permafrost plateau in south-central Alaska with high-resolution soil temperature sensors. The site contains ecosystem-protected permafrost, which persists in unfavorable climates due to favorable ecologic conditions. Our study (2020–2022) captured three of the snowiest years and three of the four wettest years since the site was first studied in 2015. Average thaw rates along an across-site transect increased nine-fold from 6 ± 5 cm yr −1 (2015–2020) to 56 ± 12 cm yr −1 (2020–2022). This thaw was not uniform. Hummock locations, residing on topographic high points with relatively dense canopy, experienced only 8 ± 9 cm yr −1 of thaw, on average. Hollows, topographic low points with low canopy cover, and transition locations, which had canopy cover and elevation between hummocks and hollows, thawed 44 ± 6 cm yr −1 and 39 ± 13 cm yr −1 , respectively. Mechanisms of thaw differed between these locations. Hollows had high warm-season soil moisture, which increased thermal conductivity, and deep cold-season snow coverage, which insulated soil. Transition locations thawed primarily due to thermal energy transported through subsurface taliks during individual rain events. Most increases in depth to permafrost occurred below the ∼45 cm thickness seasonally frozen layer, and therefore, expanded existing site taliks. Results highlight the importance of canopy cover and microtopography in controlling soil thermal inputs, the ability of subsurface runoff from individual rain events to trigger warming and thaw, and the acceleration of thaw caused by consecutive wet and snowy years. As northern high-latitudes become warmer and wetter, and weather events become more extreme, the importance of these controls on soil warming and thaw is likely to increase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector

The power sector is currently undergoing significant changes, driven by a combination of factors, including decarbonization and technology innovation. This study aims to assess implications of these drivers on U.S. power sector technology futures and the associated water and environmental implications for cooling thermoelectric power plants. Specifically, we evaluate four decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States that vary in assumptions concerning demand growth and technology costs, with technology costs driving alternative outcomes that prioritize either technologies that require low amounts of water (such as wind, solar, and battery) or high amounts of water (such as nuclear and carbon capture and storage). These scenarios are executed in a power sector capacity expansion model and compared to two reference scenarios that assume status quo with policy and cost drivers. Our analysis indicates that future U.S. thermoelectric water withdrawals could decrease by 25%–60%, but water consumption could more than triple in some scenarios. These changes are driven by a combination of retirement of some power facilities, shifts in cooling technologies, and new technology deployment. The water use patterns vary across the United States, with the eastern regions demonstrating a lot more variability in water consumption across scenarios than western regions. However, local concerns can influence these possible investments, since increased water consumption can exacerbate water scarcity, leading to conflicts among competing users and affecting regional social, environmental, and economic dynamics. Future work should consider possible costs associated with alternate water sources, as well as improve the representation of water constraints within simulations. Inclusion of extreme events and alternate modeling platforms (e.g. production cost modeling and resource adequacy) may also be warranted to further stress test the robustness of these possible technology futures. Such assessments will be critical for ensuring decarbonization and other infrastructure-oriented investments lead to a reliable and resilient power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Multiphysics Pebble-Bed Reactor Control Rod Withdrawal Study

This work studied the responses of both a generic gas- and a fluoride-cooled PBR concept---the gPBR-200 and gFHR, respectively---during reactivity insertion accidents. Both models rely on 2-D axisymmetric simulations to solve the neutron flux distribution, nuclide concentrations, and temperature across the core---in addition to numerous representative pebble and TRISO particle simulations for determining fuel and moderator temperatures. This not only allows for computing maximum temperatures in the core---thus enabling estimation of how near the fuel is to peak operational and safety limits---as prescribed by specified acceptable fuel design limits, which are determined in such a way that fuel is not damaged during operational or anticipated abnormal occurrences---but also predicting how much of the core exceeds a given temperature limit, as well as determining the local energy deposition rate. These models consider both control rod withdrawal and ejection events. The former introduces a great deal more reactivity, as all the control rods are withdrawn (as opposed to a single one in the latter case), though at a much slower pace. In addition, for the gPBR-200, two limiting cases were considered: one with the core starting under hot full-power conditions and one with it starting under cold zero-power conditions. While the amount of reactivity added in the latter case is much higher (due to the far lower temperatures and the lack of neutron poisons such as Xe-135), the margin to temperature limits is also much more significant. Overall, for the design considered, none of the accidents resulted in the maximum fuel temperature reaching values close to the TRISO limit. However, the methodology presented herein could be very relevant if some designs consider reduced margins (e.g., higher temperatures) to achieve enhanced economics. Further model improvement is needed to better capture control rod worth, both in terms of cusping effects (as the rods are slowly withdrawn) and differential worth, especially as the tips of the rods near the upper cavity.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Toward a persistent event-streaming system for high-performance computing applications

High-performance computing (HPC) applications have traditionally relied on parallel file systems and file transfer services to manage data movement and storage. Alternative approaches have been proposed that use direct communications between application components, trading persistence and fault tolerance for speed. Event-driven architectures, as popularized in enterprise contexts, present a compelling middle ground, avoiding the performance cost and API constraints of parallel file systems while retaining persistence and offering impedance matching between application components. However, adapting streaming frameworks to HPC workloads requires addressing challenges unique to HPC systems. This paper investigates the potential for a streaming framework designed for HPC infrastructures and use cases. We introduce Mofka, a persistent event-streaming framework designed specifically for HPC environments. Mofka combines the capabilities of a traditional streaming service with optimizations tailored to the HPC context, such as support for massively multicore nodes, efficient scaling for large producer-consumer workflows, RDMA-enabled high-performance network communications, specialized network fabrics with multiple links per node, and efficient handling of large scientific data payloads. Built using the Mochi suite of HPC data service components, Mofka provides a lightweight, modular, and high-performance solution for persistent streaming in HPC systems. We present the architecture of Mofka and evaluate its performance against Kafka and Redpanda using benchmarks on diverse platforms, including Argonne's Polaris and Oak Ridge's Frontier supercomputers, showing up to 8× improvement in throughput in some scenarios. We then demonstrate its utility in several real-world applications: a tomographic reconstruction pipeline, a workflow for the discovery of metal-organic frameworks for carbon capture, and the instrumentation of Dask workflows for provenance tracking and performance analysis.

HPC↗

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Modeling Improvements for the Transition to Natural Circulation

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) is a simulation tool used to perform deterministic analyses of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactors. With its origin as SAS1A in the late 1960s, the SAS series of codes has been under continuous use and development for over fifty years and represents a critical investment in safety analysis capabilities for the U.S. Department of Energy. In recent years, SAS has undergone a number of improvements to enable improved safety analyses that meet end users’ modernized needs while complying with the current regulatory environment. Improvements made in versions 5.6 and 5.7 released within the last year include the development of anisotropic Reynolds number dependent loss coefficients throughout the core and heat transport systems, the ability to distinguish the transition friction factor from the fully developed laminar and turbulent friction factors, and timedependent direct coolant and wall heating for pipe-like elements in the heat transport systems. While it was possible to capture loss coefficients, friction factors, and heat transfer from an element to a heat sink within SAS in previous versions of the code, users were required to end the simulation and restart it to adjust the input to account for any significant changes to the values during the transient. With these improvements, users can better capture flow reversal, pump heating, and the transition from forced to natural circulation without being limited to constant orifice coefficients, constant heat sinks, or the need to restart the simulation and modify input. In order to demonstrate the application of these improvements, a loss of flow transient is simulated for the Advanced Burner Test Reactor (ABTR).

SAS4A/SASSYS-1↗

Long-Range Transhorizon Lunar Surface Radio Wave Propagation in the Presence of a Regolith and a Sparse Exospheric Plasma

Long-range, over-the-horizon (transhorizon) radio wave propagation is considered for the case of the Moon. In the event that relay satellites are not available or otherwise unwarranted for use, transhorizon communication provides for a contingency or backup option for non line-of-sight lunar surface exploration scenarios. Two potential low-frequency propagation mechanisms characteristic of the lunar landscape are the lunar regolith and the photoelectron induced plasma exosphere enveloping the Moon. Although it was hoped that the regolith would provide for a spherical waveguide which could support a trapped surface wave phenomena, it is found that, in most cases, the regolith is deleterious to long range radio wave propagation. However, the presence of the plasma of the lunar exosphere supports wave propagation and, in fact, surpasses the attenuation of the regolith. Given the models of the regolith and exosphere adopted here, it is recommended that a frequency of 1 MHz be considered for low rate data transmission along the lunar surface. It is also recommended that further research be done to capture the descriptive physics of the regolith and the exospheric plasma so that a more complete model can be obtained. This comprehensive theoretical study is based entirely on first principles and the mathematical techniques needed are developed as required; it is self-contained and should not require the use of outside resources for its understanding.

Manning, Robert M.↗

Future Lightning Instruments for Weather and Climate Monitoring From LEO

Lightning is not only a natural hazard, but it also holds information about physical processes at work in deep convection and influences atmospheric oxidants that modulate ozone and methane. Hence, spaceborne lightning observations are essential for monitoring extreme events and feedbacks in Earth’s climate system. Low-Earth orbiting (LEO) lightning mapping instruments established a 25-year record of global lightning activity and resulted in a wealth of studies that motivated its designation as an Essential Climate Variable by the World Meteorological Organization. Although geostationary observations of lightning have become increasingly available since 2017, LEO lightning mappers continue to serve critical needs given their unique vantage point and acceptance as a unifying reference for geostationary lightning mapper and ground-based global lightning datasets. At the close of 2023, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) will cease operations on the International Space Station, which introduces a critical gap in LEO-based monitoring of global lightning activity. To address this need, NASA is developing new lightning mapping technology that enables future LEO-based satellite missions. Existing LEO-based lightning mappers rely on narrowband optical emissions centered on 777.4-nm and detectors that capture 500 images per second to detect lightning both day and night. Lightning can also produce optical emissions in a narrowband centered on 337-nm without any corresponding emissions at the traditionally used near-infrared (NIR) wavelength. These near-ultraviolet (UV) emissions are associated with earlier stage electrical breakdown (e.g., streamers), may frequent intense regions of deep convective storms, and may be a significant source of nitrogen oxide production in the upper atmosphere. A new lightning mapping instrument called the CubeSat Lightning Imaging and Detection Experiment (CLIDE) is being designed at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center to use high-speed, scientific CMOS image sensors capable of detecting lightning’s transient optical emissions in the near-UV and NIR during both daylit and nighttime scenes. This will extend the record of global lightning activity and help pave the way for future small satellite missions that combine radio and optical lightning detectors to obtain novel three-dimensional maps of lightning on a global scale, which can revolutionize the way lightning is used to monitor weather and understand changes in climate.

lightning↗

Application of machine learning to estimate fireball characteristics and their uncertainty from infrared spectral data

Experiments or events involving high explosives (HE) can be monitored remotely by infrared (IR) sensors to gather information about the configuration or materials involved in the device. Researchers at the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) developed a phenomenological model for HE fireball spectra in the IR range that allows for parameters to be extracted from Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) data. This model includes parameters tied to physical characteristics of the fireball: temperature, size, soot, and gas concentrations. Previous works have sought to recover these parameters by the fitting of either whole spectra or select wavenumber bands to this phenomenological model. Difficulties arise due to the complex relationships between the parameters to be fit. Uncertainty quantification of the estimated fireball parameters is also problematic since HE experiments do not have any ground truth information on the parameters. It is suggested that artificial neural network (ANN) based approaches may be well suited to this problem, because of their ability to capture complex and highly nonlinear relationships. As such, this work seeks to explore the efficacy of deep artificial neural networks (DNNs) for this problem of parameter recovery from spectra and to also investigate the uncertainty of recovering the fireball parameters from FTIR data. Networks are designed using the hyperparameter optimization tool Hyperopt and trained/tested on artificial data generated using the phenomenological model developed by AFIT. The results of applying the network to the artificial data set are compared to a physics-based band approach that uses a selected number of bands based on their physical properties. Information on the uncertainty of estimating parameters from remotely sensed experimental data is obtained by treating the accuracy of the DNN model on artificial data as an upper bound and by examining the impact of emissivity due to soot on parameter estimation error; the results for artificial data are likely to be optimistic as compared to recovering parameters from experimental data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Analytic Shielding Optimization to Reduce Crew Exposure to Ionizing Radiation Inside Space Vehicles

A sustainable lunar architecture provides capabilities for leveraging out-of-service components for alternate uses. Discarded architecture elements may be used to provide ionizing radiation shielding to the crew habitat in case of a Solar Particle Event. The specific location relative to the vehicle where the additional shielding mass is placed, as corroborated with particularities of the vehicle design, has a large influence on protection gain. This effect is caused by the exponential- like decrease of radiation exposure with shielding mass thickness, which in turn determines that the most benefit from a given amount of shielding mass is obtained by placing it so that it preferentially augments protection in under-shielded areas of the vehicle exposed to the radiation environment. A novel analytic technique to derive an optimal shielding configuration was developed by Lockheed Martin during Design Analysis Cycle 3 (DAC-3) of the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV). [1] Based on a detailed Computer Aided Design (CAD) model of the vehicle including a specific crew positioning scenario, a set of under-shielded vehicle regions can be identified as candidates for placement of additional shielding. Analytic tools are available to allow capturing an idealized supplemental shielding distribution in the CAD environment, which in turn is used as a reference for deriving a realistic shielding configuration from available vehicle components. While the analysis referenced in this communication applies particularly to the Orion vehicle, the general method can be applied to a large range of space exploration vehicles, including but not limited to lunar and Mars architecture components. In addition, the method can be immediately applied for optimization of radiation shielding provided to sensitive electronic components.

Gaza, Razvan↗