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DOE OSTI2021

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs: Preprint

Subsurface data analysis, reservoir modeling, and machine learning (ML) techniques have been applied to the Brady Hot Springs (BHS) geothermal field in Nevada, USA to further characterize the subsurface and assist with optimizing reservoir management. Hundreds of reservoir simulations have been conducted in TETRAD-G and CMG STARS to explore different injection and production fluid flow rates and allocations and to develop a training data set for ML. This process included simulating the historical injection and production since 1979 and prediction of future performance through 2040. ML networks were created and trained using TensorFlow based on multilayer perceptron (MLP), long short-term memory (LSTM), and convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures. These networks took as input selected flow rates, injection temperatures, and historical field operation data and produced estimates of future production temperatures. This approach was first successfully tested on a simplified single fracture doublet system, followed by the application to the BHS reservoir. Using an initial BHS dataset with 37 simulated scenarios, the trained and validated network predicted the production temperature for 6 production wells with the mean absolute percentage error of less than 8%. In a complementary analysis effort, the principal component analysis applied to 13 BHS geological parameters revealed that vertical fracture permeability shows the strongest correlation with fault density and fault intersection density. A new BHS reservoir model was developed considering the fault intersection density as proxy for permeability. This new reservoir model helps to explore under-exploited zones in the reservoir. A data gathering plan to obtain additional subsurface data was developed; it includes temperature surveying for three idle injection wells, at which the reservoir simulations indicate high bottom-hole temperatures. The collected data assist with calibrating the reservoir model and may lead to converting these wells to producers to access under-exploited zones in the reservoir. Data gathering activities are planned for the first quarter of 2021.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗

DOE OSTI2022

COMPOFF: A Compiler Cost model using Machine Learning to predict the Cost of OpenMP Offloading

The HPC industry is inexorably moving towards an era of extremely heterogeneous architectures, with more devices configured on any given HPC platform and potentially more kinds of devices, some of them highly specialized. Writing a separate code suitable for each target system for a given HPC application is not practical. The better solution is to use directive-based parallel programming models such as OpenMP. OpenMP provides a number of options for offloading a piece of code to devices like GPUs. To select the best option from such options during compilation, most modern compilers use analytical models to estimate the cost of executing the original code and the different offloading code variants. Building such an analytical model for compilers is a difficult task that necessitates a lot of effort on the part of a compiler engineer. Recently, machine learning techniques have been successfully applied to build cost models for a variety of compiler optimization problems. In this paper, we present COMPOFF, a cost model which uses the multi-layer perceptrons to statically estimates the Cost of OpenMP OFFloading. We used six different transformations on a parallel code of Wilson Dslash Operator to support GPU offloading, and we predicted their cost of execution on different GPUs using COMPOFF during compile time. Our results show that this model can predict offloading costs with a root mean squared error in prediction of less than 0.5 seconds. Our preliminary findings indicate that this work will make it much easier and faster for scientists and compiler developers to port legacy HPC applications that use OpenMP to new heterogeneous computing environment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data from: Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta-analysis

Despite the wide application of meta-analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta-analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta-analyses. We reviewed published meta-analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies (ni) and the number of studies or records (k) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta-analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that ni and k were highly variable, distributions were right-skewed, and were generally small (median ni =5, median k=44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval based on the t-distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z-distribution confidence intervals had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta-analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random-effects meta-analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods were similar for the same combinations of factors (k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approaches had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low (k<15). Our literature review suggests that many meta-analyses that used z-distribution or bootstrapping confidence intervals may have over-estimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta-analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Feynman diagrams for matter wave interferometry

We introduce a new theoretical framework based on Feynman diagrams to compute phase shifts in matter wave interferometry. The method allows for analytic computation of higher order quantum corrections, beyond the traditional semi-classical approximation. These additional terms depend on the finite size of the initial matter wavefunction and/or have higher order dependence on ℏ. We apply the method to compute the response of matter wave interferometers to power law potentials and potentials with an arbitrary spatial dependence. The analytic expressions are validated by comparing to numerical simulations, and estimates are provided for the scale of the quantum corrections to the phase shift response to the gravitational field of the earth, anharmonic trapping potentials, and gravitational fields from local proof masses. We also find that for certain experimentally feasible parameters, these corrections are large enough to be measured and could lead to systematic errors if they are not mitigated. We find that to first order in a spatially dependent potential, quantum corrections vanish when the initial matter wavepacket has spherical symmetry and the potential satisfies Laplace's equation. We anticipate these quantum corrections will be especially important for trapped matter wave interferometers and for free-space matter wave interferometers in the presence of proof masses. These interferometers are becoming increasingly sensitive tools for mobile inertial sensing, gravity surveying, tests of gravity and its interplay with quantum mechanics, and searches for dark energy.

Glick, Jonah [Northwestern U.; Fermilab] (ORCID:00↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ultracoherent SRF Cavity-Based Multi-Qudit Platform with Error-Resilient Control

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities offer a promising platform for quantum computing due to their long coherence times, yet integrating nonlinear elements like transmons for control often introduces additional loss. We report a multimode quantum system based on a 2-cell elliptical shaped SRF cavity, comprising two cavity modes weakly coupled to an ancillary transmon circuit, designed to preserve coherence while enabling efficient control of the cavity modes. We mitigate the detrimental effects of the transmon decoherence through careful design optimization that reduces transmon-cavity couplings and participation in the dielectric substrate and lossy interfaces, to achieve single-photon lifetimes of 20.6\,ms and 15.6\,ms for the two modes, and a pure dephasing time exceeding 40\,ms. This marks an order-of-magnitude improvement over prior 3D multimode memories. Leveraging sideband interactions and novel error-resilient protocols, including measurement-based correction and post-selection, we achieve high-fidelity control over quantum states. This enables the preparation of Fock states up to $N = 20$ with fidelities exceeding 95\%, the highest reported to date to the authors' knowledge, as well as two-mode entanglement with an estimated coherence-limited fidelities of 99.9\% after post-selection. These results establish our platform as a robust foundation for quantum information processing, allowing for future extensions to high-dimensional qudit encodings.

Kim, T. [Northwestern U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ultracoherent superconducting cavity-based multiqudit platform with error-resilient control

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities offer a promising platform for quantum computing due to their long coherence times, yet integrating nonlinear elements like transmons for control often introduces additional loss. We report a multimode quantum system based on a 2-cell elliptical-shaped SRF cavity, comprising two cavity modes weakly coupled to an ancillary transmon circuit, designed to preserve coherence while enabling efficient control of the cavity modes. We mitigate the detrimental effects of the transmon decoherence through careful design optimization that reduces transmon-cavity couplings and participation in the dielectric substrate and lossy interfaces, to achieve single-photon lifetimes of 20.6 ms and 15.6 ms for the two modes, and a pure dephasing time exceeding 40 ms. This marks an order-of-magnitude improvement over prior 3D multimode memories. Leveraging sideband interactions and novel error-resilient protocols, including measurement-based correction and post-selection, we achieve high-fidelity control over quantum states. This enables the preparation of Fock states up to N = 20 with fidelities exceeding 95%, the highest reported to date to the authors' knowledge, as well as two-mode entanglement with an estimated coherence-limited fidelities of 99.9% after post-selection. These results establish our platform as a robust foundation for quantum information processing, allowing for future extensions to high-dimensional qudit encodings.

Lu, Yao [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000020413698X)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ultracoherent superconducting cavity-based multiqudit platform with error-resilient control

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities offer a promising platform for quantum computing due to their long coherence times, yet integrating nonlinear elements like transmons for control often introduces additional loss. We report a multimode quantum system based on a 2-cell elliptical-shaped SRF cavity, comprising two cavity modes weakly coupled to an ancillary transmon circuit, designed to preserve coherence while enabling efficient control of the cavity modes. We mitigate the detrimental effects of the transmon decoherence through careful design optimization that reduces transmon-cavity couplings and participation in the dielectric substrate and lossy interfaces, to achieve single-photon lifetimes of 20.6 ms and 15.6 ms for the two modes, and a pure dephasing time exceeding 40 ms. This marks an order-of-magnitude improvement over prior 3D multimode memories. Leveraging sideband interactions and novel error-resilient protocols, including measurement-based correction and post-selection, we achieve high-fidelity control over quantum states. This enables the preparation of Fock states up to N = 20 with fidelities exceeding 95%, the highest reported to date to the authors' knowledge, as well as two-mode entanglement with an estimated coherence-limited fidelities of 99.9% after post-selection. These results establish our platform as a robust foundation for quantum information processing, allowing for future extensions to high-dimensional qudit encodings.

Lu, Yao [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000020413698X)↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Measurement of the Largest-scale CMB E -mode Polarization with CLASS

We present measurements of large-scale cosmic microwave background E-mode polarization from the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor 90 GHz data. Using 115 det-yr of observations collected through 2024 with a variable-delay polarization modulator, we achieved a polarization sensitivity of 82 μK arcimin, comparable to Planck at similar frequencies (100 and 143 GHz ). The analysis demonstrates effective mitigation of systematic errors and addresses challenges to large-angular-scale power recovery posed by time-domain filtering in maximum-likelihood map-making. A novel implementation of the pixel-space transfer matrix is introduced, which enables efficient filtering simulations and bias correction in the power spectrum using the quadratic cross-spectrum estimator. Overall, we achieved an unbiased time-domain filtering correction to recover the largest angular scale polarization, with the only power deficit, arising from map-making nonlinearity, being characterized as <3%. Through cross-correlation with Planck, we detected the cosmic reionization at 99.4% significance and measured the reionization optical depth τ = $0.053^{+0.018}_{-0.019}$, marking the first ground-based attempt at such a measurement. At intermediate angular scales (ℓ > 30), our results, both independently and in cross-correlation with Planck, remain fully consistent with Planck’s measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ultracoherent superconducting cavity-based multiqudit platform with error-resilient control

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities offer a promising platform for quantum computing due to their long coherence times, yet integrating nonlinear elements like transmons for control often introduces additional loss. We report a multimode quantum system based on a 2-cell elliptical shaped SRF cavity, comprising two cavity modes weakly coupled to an ancillary transmon circuit, designed to preserve coherence while enabling efficient control of the cavity modes. We mitigate the detrimental effects of the transmon decoherence through careful design optimization that reduces transmon-cavity couplings and participation in the dielectric substrate and lossy interfaces, to achieve single-photon lifetimes of 20.6 ms and 15.6 ms for the two modes, and a pure dephasing time exceeding 40 ms. This marks an order-of-magnitude improvement over prior 3D multimode memories. Leveraging sideband interactions and novel error-resilient protocols, including measurement-based correction and post-selection, we achieve high-fidelity control over quantum states. This enables the preparation of Fock states up to $N = 20$ with fidelities exceeding 95%, the highest reported to date to the authors' knowledge, as well as two-mode entanglement with an estimated coherence-limited fidelities of 99.9% after post-selection. These results establish our platform as a robust foundation for quantum information processing, allowing for future extensions to high-dimensional qudit encodings.

Kim, Taeyoon [Fermilab; Northwestern U.]↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transient Storage Model Parameter Optimization Using the Simulated Annealing Method

Hyporheic exchange in streams is critical to ecosystem functions such as nutrient cycling along river corridors, especially for slowly moving or small stream systems. The transient storage model (TSM) has been widely used for modeling of hyporheic exchange. TSM calibration, for hyporheic exchange, is typically used to estimate four parameters, including the mass exchange rate coefficient, the dispersion coefficient, stream cross-sectional area, and hyporheic zone cross-sectional area. Prior studies have raised concerns regarding the non-uniqueness of the inverse problem for the TSM, that is, the occurrence of different parameter vectors resulting in TSM solution that reproduces the observed in-stream tracer break through curve (BTC) with the same error. This leads to practical non-identifiability in determining the unknown parameter vector values even when global-optimal values exist, and the parameter optimization becomes practically non-unique. To address this problem, we applied the simulated annealing method to calibrate the TSM to BTCs, because it is less susceptible to local minima-induced non-identifiability. A hypothetical (or synthetic) tracer test data set with known parameters was developed to demonstrate the capability of the simulated annealing method to find the global minimum parameter vector, and it identified the “hypothetically-true” global minimum parameter vector even with input data that were modified with up to 10% noise without increasing the number of iterations required for convergence. The simulated annealing TSM was then calibrated using two in-stream tracer tests conducted in East Fork Poplar Creek, Tennessee. In conclusion, simulated annealing was determined to be appropriate for quantifying the TSM parameter vector because of its search capability for the global minimum parameter vector.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Vertical detachment energies of ammonia cluster anions using self-interaction-corrected methods

Systems with weakly bound extra electrons impose great challenges to semilocal density functional approximations (DFAs), which suffer from self-interaction errors. Small ammonia clusters are one such example of weakly bound anions where the extra electron is weakly bound. We applied two self-interaction correction (SIC) schemes, viz., the well-known Perdew–Zunger and the recently developed locally scaled SIC (LSIC) with the local spin density approximation (LSDA), Perdew–Burke–Ernzerhof (PBE) generalized gradient approximation (GGA), and the SCAN meta-GGA functionals to calculate the vertical detachment energies (VDEs) of small ammonia cluster anions (NH3)n–. Our results show that the LSIC significantly reduces the errors in calculations of VDE with LSDA and PBE-GGA functionals leading to better agreement with the reference values calculated with coupled cluster singles and doubles with perturbative triples [CCSD(T)]. Accurate prediction of VDE as an absolute of the highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) is challenging for DFAs. Our results show that VDEs estimated from the negative of HOMO eigenvalues with the LSIC-LSDA and Perdew–Zunger SIC-PBE are within 11 meV of the reference CCSD(T) results. Here, the LSIC method performs consistently well for the VDE estimates, from both the total energy differences and the absolute HOMO eigenvalues.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

DESI DR1 Ly α 1D power spectrum: Validation of estimators

The Data Release 1 (DR1) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) is the largest sample to date for small-scale Lyα forest cosmology, accessed through its one-dimensional power spectrum (P 1D ). The Lyα forest P 1D is extracted from quasar spectra that are highly inhomogeneous (both in wavelength and between quasars) in noise properties due to intrinsic properties of the quasar, atmospheric and astrophysical contamination, and also sensitive to low-level details of the spectral extraction pipeline. We employ two estimators in DR1 analysis to measure P 1D : the optimal estimator and the fast Fourier transform (FFT) estimator. To ensure robustness of our DR1 measurements, we validate these two power spectrum and covariance matrix estimation methodologies against the challenging aspects of the data. First, using a set of 20 synthetic 1D realizations of DR1, we derive the masking bias corrections needed for the FFT estimator and the continuum fitting bias needed for both estimators. We demonstrate that both estimators, including their covariances, are unbiased with these corrections using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Second, we substantially extend our previous suite of CCD image simulations to include 675,000 quasars, allowing us to accurately quantify the pipeline's performance. This set of simulations reveals biases at the highest k values, corresponding to a resolution error of a few percent. We base the resolution systematics error budget of DR1 P 1D on these values, but do not derive corrections from them since the simulation fidelity is insufficient for precise corrections.

Lyman alpha forest↗

DOE OSTI2021

3D orthorhombic earth model effects on seismic source characterization

Most earth materials are anisotropic with regard to seismic wave-speeds, especially materials such as shales, or where oriented fractures are present. However, the base assumption for many numerical simulations is to treat earth materials as isotropic media. This is done for simplicity, the apparent weakness of anisotropy in the far field, and the lack of well-characterized anisotropic material properties for input into numerical simulations. One approach for addressing the higher complexity of actual geologic regions is to model the material as an orthorhombic medium. We have developed an explicit time-domain, finite-difference (FD) algorithm for simulating three-dimensional (3D) elastic wave propagation in a heterogeneous orthorhombic medium. The objective of this research is to investigate the errors and biases that result from modeling a non-isotropic medium as an isotropic medium. This is done by computing “observed data” by using synthetic, anisotropic simulations with the assumption of an orthorhombic, anisotropic earth model. Green’s functions for an assumed isotropic earth model are computed and then used an inversion designed to estimate moment tensors with the “observed” data. One specific area of interest is how shear waves, which are introduced in an anisotropic model even for an isotropic explosion, affect the characterization of seismic sources when isotropic earth assumptions are made. This work is done in support of the modeling component of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE), a series of underground chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Role of the likelihood for elastic scattering uncertainty quantification

In the last decade, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for optical model potentials (OMPs) has become a focal point for nuclear reaction theory, and several competing approaches for OMP UQ have recently been developed. Here, we clarify recent efforts to compare frequentist and Bayesian approaches in the context of OMP UQ [G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019)]. We replicate a portion of that OMP UQ study but use independent statistical tools. Specifically, we compare two methods for OMP parameter inference from elastic scattering data: the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for χ 2 minimization on one hand and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling on the other. Separately, we assess the common practice of using a renormalized likelihood (χ 2 /N), N being the number of data points, instead of the canonical weighted-least-squares likelihood (χ 2 ), as a way of accounting for unknown data correlations. Here, we show that for a generic linear model and for a five-parameter OMP analysis, frequentist and uniform-prior Bayesian approaches recover the same optimum and uncertainty estimates—not systematically larger uncertainties for the Bayesian approach, as was concluded in G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019). Further, we show that if an additional, near-degenerate parameter is introduced into the same OMP analysis such that the parameter posterior becomes non-Gaussian, then covariance-based estimates of uncertainty become unreliable. Finally, we show that regardless of optimization approach, if χ 2 /N is used for the likelihood, the resulting parametric uncertainties increase by $\sqrt{N}$, and that this is responsible for the conclusions drawn in the revisited study. Based on our replication results, we find that a fortuitous cancellation of unreported errors and the renormalization factor can lead to improvement in empirical coverages, as was the case in the original comparative study. We emphasize that developing and applying a realistic likelihood function is an essential task in a UQ analysis, and that several recent UQ studies that employed a renormalized likelihood (i.e., including a 1/N factor) may have yielded unrealistically large uncertainties for elastic-scattering observables. If the parameter posterior deviates from multivariate-normal, a sampling-based approach like MCMC has a clear advantage over methods that assume the Laplace approximation holds. We note that empirical coverage can serve as an important internal check for the analyst whose model or data may have additional, unaccounted-for uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Monte Carlo control loops for cosmic shear cosmology with DES Year 1 data

Weak lensing by large-scale structure is a powerful probe of cosmology and of the dark universe. This cosmic shear technique relies on the accurate measurement of the shapes and redshifts of background galaxies and requires precise control of systematic errors. Monte Carlo control loops (MCCL) is a forward modeling method designed to tackle this problem. It relies on the ultra fast image generator (UFig) to produce simulated images tuned to match the target data statistically, followed by calibrations and tolerance loops. Here, we present the first end-to-end application of this method, on the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 wide field imaging data. We simultaneously measure the shear power spectrum $C_ℓ$ and the redshift distribution $n(z)$ of the background galaxy sample. The method includes maps of the systematic sources, point spread function (PSF), an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference of the simulation model parameters, a shear calibration scheme, and a fast method to estimate the covariance matrix. We find a close statistical agreement between the simulations and the DES Y1 data using an array of diagnostics. In a nontomographic setting, we derive a set of $C_ℓ$ and $n(z)$ curves that encode the cosmic shear measurement, as well as the systematic uncertainty. Following a blinding scheme, we measure the combination of $Ω_m$, $σ_8$, and intrinsic alignment amplitude $A_{IA}$, defined as $S_8D_{IA}=σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}D_{IA}$, where $D_{IA}=1-0.11(A_{IA}-1)$. We find $S_8D_{IA}=0.8954_{-0.039}^{+0.054}$, where systematics are at the level of roughly 60% of the statistical errors. We discuss these results in the context of earlier cosmic shear analyses of the DES Y1 data. Our findings indicate that this method and its fast runtime offer good prospects for cosmic shear measurements with future wide-field surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental validation of a Kalman observer using linearized OpenFAST and a fully instrumented 1:70 model

Abstract To enable real‐time monitoring and control strategies for floating offshore wind turbines, accurate information about the state of the system is needed. This paper details the application of a Kalman filter to the UMaine VolturnUS‐S floating wind platform to provide accurate state estimates in real time using minimal system measurements. The midfidelity nonlinear simulation tool OpenFAST was used to generate the underlying linear state‐space model for the Kalman filter. This linear model and its limitations are demonstrated through comparison with experimental data collected on a 1:70 froude‐scaled model of the floating platform and tower. Using a selection of five measurements from the real system, a Kalman filter was developed to provide estimates for the remaining system states and measurements. These estimates were then validated against the experimental values collected from testing of the scale model. Validation of the Kalman filter produced accurate estimates of surge, heave, and tower base bending moment, measurements of which were not available to the Kalman filter. Performance of the Kalman filter was tested and validated over a range of sea conditions from rated wind speed to storm events and demonstrated robustness in the Kalman filter to maintain accuracy across all operating conditions despite significant error in the underlying linear model for extreme conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Maximizing energy efficiency in wastewater treatment plants: A data-driven approach for waste heat recovery and an economic analysis using Organic Rankine Cycle and thermal energy storage

Maximizing energy efficiency through waste heat recovery (WHR) processes is crucial for sustainable and ecofriendly operations across multiple industries, notably in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). This work proposes a comprehensive approach for assessing the WHR feasibility in WWTPs, structured in two main objectives. Firstly, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model is developed to accurately predict WHR based on operational data, including biogas temperature, biogas pressure, daily production in kWh, and WHR values in kWh th . The second objective focuses on economically evaluating the WHR feasibility based on the estimated WHR values obtained by the ANN model, and then realistically assessing the economic feasibility of integrating the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) and Seasonal Thermal Energy Storage (STES) systems. With an application to the As-Samra WWTP located in Jordan, the developed ANN model demonstrates promising results in the validation phase, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2206 kWh/day, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1674 kWh/day, and an R-squared (R 2 ) value of 68%. On the other hand, the economic analysis reveals that an optimal ORC system of 412.14 kW e capacity yields a Net Present Value (NPV) of 2.09 million US dollars, a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 0.0749 USD/kWh, a Payback Period (PBP) of 4.8 years, and annual revenues of 428 kUSD. This work also investigates the techno-economic feasibility of integrating ORC-STES. Results indicate that the LCOE and PBP are highly affected by the ORC's capital cost, and integrating STES increases the LCOE to 0.0824 USD/kWh, rendering its integration with ORC infeasible. In conclusion, this study aims to advance the understanding and application of WHR in WWTPs, paving the way for more efficient and sustainable practices in the field.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enabling probabilistic learning on manifolds through double diffusion maps

Here, we present a generative learning framework for probabilistic sampling that extends Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds (PLoM), which is designed to generate statistically consistent realizations of a random vector in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space, informed by a (representative) set of observations. In its original form, PLoM constructs a reduced-order probabilistic model by combining three main components: (a) kernel density estimation to approximate the underlying probability measure, (b) Diffusion Maps to characterize the manifold of the data, and (c) a reduced-order Itô Stochastic Differential Equation (ISDE) to sample from the learned distribution. However, its sampling dynamics are posed in the ambient space and the retained number of reduced coordinates is chosen by projection-reconstruction error. In practice, this often (i) requires more coordinates than the data’s intrinsic dimension to achieve stable sampling and (ii) lacks a smooth, basis-independent lifting back to the data domain; moreover, standard Diffusion Maps emphasize harmonic eigenfunctions and can miss non-harmonic latent structure. We address these limitations by decoupling geometry learning from sampling: a first Diffusion Maps pass identifies non-harmonic coordinates on which we formulate a full-order ISDE directly in the latent space, while Double Diffusion Maps captures multiscale geometric features and Geometric Harmonics (GH) learns a smooth lifting map to the ambient variables that is independent of the particular diffusion basis. This hybrid design preserves the system’s dynamical richness with a compact geometric representation and enables principled out-of-sample inference. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method are illustrated through two numerical studies: one based on data generated from two-dimensional Hermite polynomial functions and another based on high-fidelity simulations of a detonation wave in a reactive flow.

Double diffusion maps↗