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DOE OSTI2023

Constraining AGN Torus Sizes with Optical and Mid-infrared Ensemble Structure Functions

We propose a new method to constrain the size of the dusty torus in broad-line active galactic nuclei (AGNs) using optical and mid-infrared (MIR) ensemble structure functions (SFs). Because of the geometric dilution of the torus, the MIR response to optical continuum variations has suppressed variability with respect to the optical that depends on the geometry (e.g., size, orientation, opening angle) of the torus. More extended tori have steeper MIR SFs with respect to the optical SFs. We demonstrate the feasibility of this SF approach using simulated AGN light curves and a geometric torus model. While it is difficult to use SFs to constrain the orientation and opening angle due to the insensitivity of the SF on these parameters, the size of the torus can be well determined. Applying this method to the ensemble SFs measured for 587 SDSS quasars, we measure a torus R–L relation of $\mathrm{log}\,{R}_{\mathrm{eff}}(\mathrm{pc})={0.51}_{-0.04}^{+0.04}\times \mathrm{log}({{L}}_{\mathrm{bol}}/{10}^{46}\,\mathrm{erg}\ {{\rm{s}}}^{-1})-{0.38}_{-0.01}^{+0.01}$ in the WISE W1 band and sizes ~1.4 times larger in the W2 band, which are in good agreement with dust reverberation mapping measurements. Compared with the reverberation mapping technique, the SF method is much less demanding in data quality and can be applied to any optical+MIR light curves for which a lag measurement may not be possible, as long as the variability process and torus structure are stationary. While this SF method does not extract all information contained in the light curves (i.e., the transfer function), it provides an intuitive interpretation for the observed trends of AGN MIR SFs compared with optical SFs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Semiclassical shell-structure micro-macroscopic approach for the level density

Level density ρ(E,A) is derived for a one-component nucleon system with a given energy E and particle number A within the mean-field semiclassical periodic-orbit theory beyond the saddle-point method of the Fermi gas model. We obtain ρ∝I ν (S)/S ν , with I ν (S) being the modified Bessel function of the entropy S. Within the micro-macro-canonical approximation (MMA), for a small thermal excitation energy U, with respect to rotational excitations E rot , one obtains ν = 3/2 for ρ(E,A). In the case of excitation energy U larger than E rot but smaller than the neutron separation energy, one finds a larger value of ν = 5/2. A role of the fixed spin variables for rotating nuclei is discussed. The MMA level density ρ reaches the well-known grand-canonical ensemble limit (Fermi gas asymptote) for large S related to large excitation energies, and also reaches the finite micro-canonical limit for small combinatorial entropy S at low excitation energies (the constant “temperature” model). Fitting the ρ(E,A) of the MMA to the experimental data for low excitation energies, taking into account shell and, qualitatively, pairing effects, one obtains for the inverse level density parameter K a value which differs essentially from that parameter derived from data on neutron resonances.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Computational Modeling of Heterogeneity of Stress, Charge, and Cyclic Damage in Composite Electrodes of Li-Ion Batteries

Charge heterogeneity is a prevalent feature in many electrochemical systems. In a commercial cathode of Li-ion batteries, the composite is hierarchically structured across multiple length scales including the sub-micron single-crystal primary-particle domains up to the macroscopic particle ensembles. The redox kinetics of charge transfer and mass transport strongly couples with mechanical stresses. This interplay catalyzes substantial heterogeneity in the charge (re)distribution, stresses, and mechanical damage in the composite electrode during charging and discharging. We assess the heterogeneous electrochemistry and mechanics in a LiNi x Mn y Co z O 2 (NMC) cathode using a fully coupled electro-chemo-mechanics model at the cell level. A microstructure-resolved model is constructed based on the synchrotron X-ray tomography data. We calculate the stress field in the composite and then quantitatively evaluate the kinetics of surface charge transfer and Li transport biased by mechanical stresses. We further model the cyclic behavior of the cell. The repetitive deformation of the active particles and the weakening of the interfacial strength cause gradual increase of the interfacial debonding. The mechanical damage impedes electron transfer, incurs more charge heterogeneity, and results in the capacity degradation in batteries over cycles.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Project Title: Adaptive Vertical Grid Enhancement for E3SM (Final Technical Report)

During the first phase of the project (2018/05-2021/05), we proved the hypothesis that, without tuning, high vertical resolution improves the representation of unresolved, parameterized low altitude clouds such as stratocumulus clouds in global climate models. We evaluated the effectiveness of the newly developed computational framework, Framework for Improvement by Vertical Enhancement (FIVE) by implementing it into E3SM. FIVE aims to improve representation of the target cloud, low level cloud for this project, with use of a locally high vertical resolution for computation of selected processes. FIVE was assessed via direct comparison among E3SM, E3SM-FIVE, and satellite data as well as a newly developed ensemble artificial neural network methodology. We demonstrated that E3SM-FIVE remarkably improves marine stratocumulus representation. To advance the FIVE methodology, we took a first step toward the adaptive vertical grid in the FIVE method by modifying the E3SM single column model. For future application of FIVE to the global storm resolving model with a few km horizontal grid resolution, we developed the vertical-meridional two-dimensional (2D) Hadley circulation model, which allows one to run simulations with much higher vertical resolution and significantly longer duration than current three-dimensional global storm resolving model. During the second phase of the project (2021/05-2023/11; period for this technical report), we sought a way to appropriately transform FIVE to a regionalized version of FIVE, which allows one to select locations with/without FIVE. In parallel, we demonstrated that E3SM-FIVE with a 25-km mesh significantly reduced the bias associated with coastal stratocumulus. Furthermore, we showed that the same improvement was able to be obtained with the use of both the Regional Refined Model (RRM) targeted to one of the stratocumulus regions with 25-km resolution and FIVE. We explored a new implementation strategy of FIVE with our 2D Hadley circulation model. In parallel we applied the 2D Hadley circulation model to study the double intertropical convergence zone bias with storm resolving model resolution and aerosol-cloud interactions within the Hadley circulation with near large eddy simulation resolution. Last, we have been investigating Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus clouds with large eddy simulations in order to improve their representation in global models. During the course of the entire project, 6 journal articles were published, and 3 manuscripts are currently in preparation. We gave a total of 30 presentations at various domestic and international conferences. In addition we gave 6 seminar talks at universities and a national laboratory. E3SM- FIVE is available as a branch of E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Edge‐Driven Fringe‐Field Effects, Reduced Screening, and Bandgap Widening in Graphene Nanoribbons Enable Single‑Molecule Sensitivity

Graphene nanoribbons (GNRs) offer promising platforms for single‐molecule sensing due to their quasi‐1D channels and discrete electronic states, providing superior sensitivity toward molecular perturbations. While prior studies emphasize smoother edges as essential for optimal performance, the potential benefits of controlled edge roughness remain largely unexplored. Additionally, most investigations focus on GNR arrays, leaving critical edge‐ and width‐dependent factors, including fringe fields, bandgap widening, interactions between adsorbing molecules and GNR atoms, density of states (DOS) suppression, and electrostatic screening lengths, and their collective impact on sensitivity, poorly understood. Here, in this work, we fabricated field‐effect transistors using individual GNRs (widths: 200–20 nm) and characterized their response to molecular adsorption with perfluorooctanoic acid as the model analyte. Narrower ribbons displayed significantly enhanced sensitivity, yielding a coverage‐normalized response of 116 ± 10 mV per molecule in 20 nm‐wide GNRs (from calibrated ensemble Dirac‐point shifts). Experimental and theoretical analyses reveal that this heightened sensitivity arises from stronger fringe fields, width‐dependent quantum confinement effects, reduced DOS, and increased edge roughness that facilitates molecular anchoring, enhanced orbital overlap, and improved charge transfer efficiency. Our findings challenge the conventional assumption that smoother edges inherently enhance sensor performance, demonstrating that controlled edge disorder substantially boosts molecular sensitivity in GNR sensors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

High Pressure Infiltration/Expulsion of Aqueous NaCl in Planar Hydrophobic Nanopores

Pressure-driven permeation of water in a poorly wettable material results in a conversion of mechanical work into surface free energy representing a new form of energy storage, or absorption. When water is replaced by a concentrated electrolyte solution, the storage capacity of a nanoporous medium becomes comparable to high-end supercapacitors. The addition of salt can also reduce the hysteresis of the infiltration/expulsion cycle. Our molecular simulations provide a theoretical perspective into the mechanisms involved in the process, and underlying structures and interactions in compressed nanoconfined solutions. Specifically, we consider aqueous NaCl in planar confinements of widths of 1.0 nm and 1.64 nm and pressures of up to 3 kbar. Open ensemble Monte Carlo simulations utilizing fractional exchanges of molecules for efficient additions/removal of ions have been utilized in conjunction with pressure-dependent chemical potentials to model bulk phases under pressure. Confinements open to these pressurized bulk, aqueous electrolyte phases show reversibility at narrow pore sizes and irreversibility in wider ones, consistent with experiment, as well as strong hysteresis at both pore size. The addition of salt results in significant increases in the solid/liquid interfacial tension in narrower pores and associated infiltration and expulsion pressures. Furthermore, these changes are consistent with strong desalination effects at the lower pore size observed irrespective of external pressure and initial concentration.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of the United States GReenhouse Gas and Air Pollutants Emissions System (GRA 2 PES)

In the U.S., emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants are often developed independently. Here, we describe the GReenhouse gas And Air Pollutants Emissions System (GRA 2 PES), which provides gridded emissions of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide (ffCO 2 ) and 93 air quality (AQ) species for 17 combustion and non-combustion sectors at 4 km × 4 km spatial resolution across the contiguous US. We find that the AQ emissions most spatially correlated with ffCO 2 are nitrogen oxides (NO x , ρ = 0.67), followed by sulfur dioxide (SO 2 , ρ = 0.51), carbon monoxide (CO, ρ = 0.44), and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 , ρ = 0.38). We evaluate GRA 2 PES ffCO 2 emissions with an ensemble of publicly available regional and global inventories at national (Normalized Mean Bias (NMB) = +1.4%), state (NMB = +1.5%, R 2 = 0.98), and urban (NMB = +11.5%, R 2 = 0.97) scales. Nationally, the differences of publicly available inventories from the ensemble average range from −10.0% to +5.7%, and consistency diverges at state and urban scales. We simulate GRA 2 PES ffCO 2 in a particle dispersion model and compare to measurements of radiocarbon ( 14 C)-derived ffCO 2 collected in Los Angeles (August 2021), with results suggesting that GRA 2 PES ffCO 2 may be low by 19% for this city, but well within model-observation differences for other publicly available inventories (−43% to +94%). GRA 2 PES AQ/ffCO 2 ratios converted to concentration space generally agree with field observations (NMB = +4%, log R 2 = 0.90). Lastly, we present a method by which to utilize GRA 2 PES to derive AQ emission fluxes from ffCO 2 emissions.

Lyu, Congmeng [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning-based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire

Reliable projections of wildfire and associated socioeconomic risks are crucial for the development of efficient and effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. The lack of or limited observational constraints for modeling outputs impairs the credibility of wildfire projections. Here, we present a machine learning framework to constrain the future fire carbon emissions simulated by 13 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), using historical, observed joint states of fire-relevant variables. During the twenty-first century, the observation-constrained ensemble indicates a weaker increase in global fire carbon emissions but higher increase in global wildfire exposure in population, gross domestic production, and agricultural area, compared with the default ensemble. Such elevated socioeconomic risks are primarily caused by the compound regional enhancement of future wildfire activity and socioeconomic development in the western and central African countries, necessitating an emergent strategic preparedness to wildfires in these countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the molecular correlations that result in field-dependent conductivities in electrolyte solutions

Employing recent advances in response theory and nonequilibrium ensemble reweighting, we study the dynamic and static correlations that give rise to an electric field-dependent ionic conductivity in electrolyte solutions. We consider solutions modeled with both implicit and explicit solvents, with different dielectric properties, and at multiple concentrations. Implicit solvent models at low concentrations and small dielectric constants exhibit strongly field-dependent conductivities. We compare these results to Onsager-Wilson theory of the Wien effect, which provides a qualitatively consistent prediction at low concentrations and high static dielectric constants but is inconsistent away from these regimes. The origin of the discrepancy is found to be increased ion correlations under these conditions. Explicit solvent effects act to suppress nonlinear responses, yielding a weakly field-dependent conductivity over the range of physically realizable field strengths. By decomposing the relevant time correlation functions, we find that the insensitivity of the conductivity to the field results from the persistent frictional forces on the ions from the solvent. Our findings illustrate the utility of nonequilibrium response theory in rationalizing nonlinear transport behavior.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gluon moment and parton distribution function of the pion from 𝑁 𝑓 = 2 +1 +1 lattice QCD

We present the first calculation of the pion gluon moment from lattice QCD in the continuum-physical limit. The calculation is done using clover fermions for the valence action with three pion masses, 220, 310 and 690 MeV, and three lattice spacings, 0.09, 0.12, and 0.15 fm, using ensembles generated by MILC Collaboration with 2+1+1 flavors of highly improved staggered quarks (HISQ). On the lattice, we nonperturbatively renormalize the gluon operator in RI/MOM scheme using the cluster-decomposition error reduction (CDER) technique to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio of the renormalization constant. We extrapolate the pion gluon moment to the continuum-physical limit and obtain ⟨𝑥⟩ 𝑔 = 0.394⁢(58) stat+NPR ⁢(39) mixing in the $\overline{MS}$ scheme at 2 GeV, with first error being the statistical error and uncertainties in nonperturbative renormalization, and the second being a systematic uncertainty estimating the effect of ignoring quark mixing. Our pion gluon momentum fraction has a central value lower than two recent single-ensemble lattice-QCD results near physical pion mass but is consistent with the recent global fits by JAM and xFitter and with most QCD-model estimates.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Standardising the “Gregory method” for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) – the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 – is a high-profile metric for quantifying the Earth system's response to human-induced climate change. A widely applied approach to estimating the ECS is the “Gregory method” (Gregory et al., 2004), which uses an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression between the net radiative flux, N, and surface air temperature anomalies, ΔT, from a 150 year experiment in which atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are quadrupled. The ECS is determined by extrapolating the linear fit to N=0, i.e. the ΔT-intercept, indicating the point at which the system is back in equilibrium. This method has been used to compare ECS estimates across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles and will likely be a key diagnostic for CMIP7. Despite its widespread application, there is little consistency or transparency between studies in how the climate model data is processed prior to the regression, leading to potential discrepancies in ECS estimates. We identify 32 alternative data processing pathways, varying by differences in global mean weighting, net radiative flux variable, anomaly calculation method, and linear regression fit. Using 44 CMIP6 models, we systematically assess the impact of these choices on ECS estimates and calculate uncertainty ranges using two bootstrap approaches. While the inter-model ECS range is insensitive to the data processing pathway, individual outlier models exhibit notable differences. Approximating a model's native grid cell area (if irregular) with cosine of the latitude can decrease the ECS by 11 %, the choice of N-variable can change the ECS by 6 %, and some anomaly calculation methods can introduce spurious temporal correlations in the processed data. Beyond data processing choices, we also evaluate an alternative linear regression method – total least squares (TLS) – which has a more statistically robust basis than OLS. However, for consistency with previous literature, and given TLS may reduce the ECS compared to OLS (by up to 24 %), thereby making a known bias in the Gregory method worse, we do not feel there is sufficient clarity to recommend a transition to TLS in all cases. To improve reproducibility and comparability in future studies, we recommend a standardised Gregory method: weighting the global mean by cell area, using the top of the atmosphere (as opposed to the top of model) N-variable, and calculating anomalies by first applying a rolling average to the preindustrial control timeseries then subtracting from the raw CO 2 quadrupling experiment. This approach accounts for model drift while reducing noise in the data to best meet the pre-conditions of the linear regression. While CMIP6 results of the multi-model mean ECS appear insensitive to these processing choices, similar assumptions may not hold for CMIP7, underscoring the need for standardised data preparation in future climate sensitivity assessments.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore wind over the northeast U.S. using multi-platform measurements from the TCAP field campaign

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are widely used to provide estimates of the offshore wind energy resource owing to their large spatial coverage compared to available observations. Nevertheless, spatiotemporal distribution of model biases is highly dependent on factors including model configuration, location, and the interplay of multi-scale physical processes. Here, in this study, we focus on the characterization of model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore winds over the northeast U.S., by varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcings, surface layer (SL) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, as well as identifying biases that may be directly passed from initial and boundary conditions. Multiple measurements, including aircraft data collected during the U.S. Department of Energy's Two-Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) experiment, are used to constrain the model results and facilitate quantitative comparisons. Our analysis indicates while SST forcing has notable impacts on simulated air temperature and moisture within PBL, the modeled winds are in general more sensitive to the choices of SL and PBL physics than to SST. The model’s forcing data not only controls the vertical dependence of wind speed errors, but also alters regional variability in wind speed’s spatial correlation. Bias comparisons between ERA5 reanalysis and ensemble simulations revealed significant similarity, particularly in wind speed biases during winter, underscoring their dependency on initial and boundary conditions. Coastal and offshore near-surface wind speed biases tend to exhibit much higher similarity in winter than in summer due to the presence of much stronger and more persistent synoptic wind conditions. This study highlights the importance of accurate atmospheric forcing and parameterization choices in improving wind forecasts and suggests the potential for extrapolating coastal wind biases to offshore locations, aiding wind energy forecasting and informing the Wind Forecast Improvement Project-3 (WFIP3).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

CERESMIP: a climate modeling protocol to investigate recent trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning and discovering multiple solutions using physics-informed neural networks with random initialization and deep ensemble

In this work we explore the capability of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to discover multiple solutions. Many real-world phenomena governed by nonlinear differential equations (DEs), such as fluid flow, exhibit multiple solutions under the same conditions, yet capturing this solution multiplicity remains a significant challenge. A key difficulty lies in providing appropriate initial conditions or guesses, as widely used time-marching schemes and Newton’s method are highly sensitive to these choices when solving complex computational problems. While machine learning models, particularly PINNs, have shown promise in solving DEs, their ability to capture multiple solutions remains underexplored. In this work, we propose a simple and practical approach using PINNs to learn and discover multiple solutions. We first demonstrate that PINNs, when combined with random initialization and deep ensemble method—originally developed for uncertainty quantification—can effectively uncover multiple solutions to nonlinear ordinary and partial DEs. Although training large ensembles of PINNs may appear computationally demanding, this can be done efficiently using vectorization techniques supported by modern deep learning frameworks, allowing many networks to be trained simultaneously. Our approach highlights the critical role of initialization in shaping solution diversity, addressing an often-overlooked aspect of machine learning for scientific computing. Furthermore, we propose utilizing PINN-generated solutions as initial conditions or initial guesses for conventional numerical solvers to enhance accuracy and efficiency in capturing multiple solutions. Extensive numerical experiments, including the Allen–Cahn equation and cavity flow, where our approach successfully identifies both stable and unstable solutions, validate the effectiveness of our method. These findings establish a general and efficient framework for addressing solution multiplicity in nonlinear DEs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Impact of Stochastic Perturbations in Physics Variables for Predicting Surface Solar Irradiance

We present a probabilistic framework tailored for solar energy applications referred to as the Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). WRF-Solar EPS has been developed by introducing stochastic perturbations into the most relevant physical variables for solar irradiance predictions. In this study, we comprehensively discuss the impact of the stochastic perturbations of WRF-Solar EPS on solar irradiance forecasting compared to a deterministic WRF-Solar prediction (WRF-Solar DET), a stochastic ensemble using the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS), and a WRF-Solar multi-physics ensemble (WRF-Solar PHYS). The performances of the four forecasts are evaluated using irradiance retrievals from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) over the contiguous United States. We focus on the predictability of the day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts during the year of 2018. The results show that the ensemble forecasts improve the quality of the forecasts, compared to the deterministic prediction system, by accounting for the uncertainty derived by the ensemble members. However, the three ensemble systems are under-dispersive, producing unreliable and overconfident forecasts due to a lack of calibration. In particular, WRF-Solar EPS produces less optically thick clouds than the other forecasts, which explains the larger positive bias in WRF-Solar EPS (31.7 W/m 2 ) than in the other models (22.7–23.6 W/m 2 ). This study confirms that the WRF-Solar EPS reduced the forecast error by 7.5% in terms of the mean absolute error (MAE) compared to WRF-Solar DET, and provides in-depth comparisons of forecast abilities with the conventional scientific probabilistic approaches (i.e., SKEBS and a multi-physics ensemble). Guidelines for improving the performance of WRF-Solar EPS in the future are provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ensemble Federated Machine Learning‐Based Cybersecurity Situational Awareness in Microgrid Network

Cyber-physical microgrids are vulnerable to stealthy cybersecurity threats that disguise their actions through the exploitation of system knowledge. Such actions can severely impacts microgrids deployed in defense bases, slowing the response time of military forces during national emergencies. Several machine-learning algorithms have been proposed to detect intrusions in the grid networks; however, these traditional machine-learning algorithms lack data privacy and are subject to several adversarial machine-learning threats. This paper proposes a novel federated machine learning (FML)-based three-model framework to detect and identify stealthy data-integrity attacks while ensuring data privacy in microgrid networks. The proposed architecture uses a variational mode decomposition technique to extract derived features from incoming measurement and control datasets. The extraction of these derived features allows FML models to learn minute variations in data patterns that allow them to perform significantly better than the models trained with generic datasets consisting of raw features. Our experimental results show the efficient performance of the proposed methodology against different types of data integrity attacks while considering primary and secondary controllers in microgrids. Further, the applied FML-integrated random forest ensemble algorithm outperforms the existing generic FML algorithms during noisy and noise-free datasets with prediction latencies of only 91–134 µs per sample within the 0.1 s sampling interval and requires communication bandwidth of around ∼8.25 KB/s at the control center and ∼2.7 KB/s per edge client for communication.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate determination of solvation free energies of neutral organic compounds from first principles

The main goal of molecular simulation is to accurately predict experimental observables of molecular systems. Another long-standing goal is to devise models for arbitrary neutral organic molecules with little or no reliance on experimental data. While separately these goals have been met to various degrees, for an arbitrary system of molecules they have not been achieved simultaneously. For biophysical ensembles that exist at room temperature and pressure, and where the entropic contributions are on par with interaction strengths, it is the free energies that are both most important and most difficult to predict. We compute the free energies of solvation for a diverse set of neutral organic compounds using a polarizable force field fitted entirely to ab initio calculations. The mean absolute errors (MAE) of hydration, cyclohexane solvation, and corresponding partition coefficients are 0.2 kcal/mol, 0.3 kcal/mol and 0.22 log units, i.e. within chemical accuracy. The model (ARROW FF) is multipolar, polarizable, and its accompanying simulation stack includes nuclear quantum effects (NQE). The simulation tools’ computational efficiency is on a par with current state-of-the-art packages. The construction of a wide-coverage molecular modelling toolset from first principles, together with its excellent predictive ability in the liquid phase is a major advance in biomolecular simulation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗