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DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting for ESCAPE: A Multi-Institution Hybrid Forecasting and Nowcasting Operation for Sea-Breeze Convection Supporting a Ground-Based and Airborne Field Campaign

The Experiment of Sea-Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) field project deployed two aircraft and ground-based assets in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, between 27 May and 2 July 2022, examining how meteorological conditions, dynamics, and aerosols control the initiation, early growth stage, and evolution of coastal convective clouds. To ensure that airborne- and ground-based assets were deployed appropriately, a forecasting and nowcasting team was formed. Daily forecasts guided real-time decision-making by assessing synoptic weather conditions, environmental aerosol, and a variety of atmospheric modeling data to assign a probability for meeting specific ESCAPE campaign objectives. During the research flights, a small team of forecasters provided “nowcasting” support by analyzing radar, satellite, and new model data in real time. The nowcasting team proved invaluable to the campaign operation, as sometimes changing environmental conditions affected, for example, the timing of convective initiation. In addition to the success of the forecasting and nowcasting teams, the ESCAPE campaign offered a unique “testbed” opportunity where in-person and virtual support both contributed to campaign objectives. The forecasting and nowcasting teams were each composed of new and experienced forecasters alike, where new forecasters were given invaluable experience that would otherwise be difficult to attain. Both teams received training on forecast models, map analysis, Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT), and thermodynamic sounding analysis before the beginning of the campaign. In this article, the ESCAPE forecasting and nowcasting teams reflect on these experiences, providing potentially useful advice for future field campaigns requiring forecasting and nowcasting support in a hybrid virtual/in-person framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Stratiform and Convective Precipitation Observed by Multiple Radars during the DYNAMO/AMIE Experiment

The motivation for this research is to develop a precipitation classification and rain rate estimation method using cloud radar-only measurements for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) long-term cloud observation analysis, which are crucial and unique for studying cloud lifecycle and precipitation features under different weather and climate regimes. Based on simultaneous and collocated observations of the Ka-band ARM zenith radar (KAZR), two precipitation radars (NCAR S-PolKa and Texas A&M University SMART-R), and surface precipitation during the DYNAMO/AMIE field campaign, a new cloud radar-only based precipitation classification and rain rate estimation method has been developed and evaluated. The resulting precipitation classification is equivalent to those collocated SMART-R and S-PolKa observations. Both cloud and precipitation radars detected about 5% precipitation occurrence during this period. The convective (stratiform) precipitation fraction is about 18% (82%). The 2-day collocated disdrometer observations show an increased number concentration of large raindrops in convective rain compared to dominant concentration of small raindrops in stratiform rain. The composite distributions of KAZR reflectivity and Doppler velocity also show two distinct structures for convective and stratiform rain. These indicate that the method produces physically consistent results for two types of rain. The cloud radar-only rainfall estimation is developed based on the gradient of accumulative radar reflectivity below 1 km, near-surface Ze, and collocated surface rainfall (R) measurement. The parameterization is compared with the Z-R exponential relation. The relative difference between estimated and surface measured rainfall rate shows that the two-parameter relation can improve rainfall estimation.

convective↗

DOE OSTI2020

WRF Modelling of Deep Convection and Hail for Wind Power Applications

Deep convection and the related occurrence of hail, intense precipitation and wind gusts represent a hazard to a range of energy infrastructure including wind turbine blades. Wind turbine blade leading edge erosion (LEE) is caused by the impact of falling hydrometeors onto rotating wind turbine blades. It is a major source of wind turbine maintenance costs and energy losses from wind farms. In the United States Southern Great Plains (SGP), where there is widespread wind energy development, deep convection and hail events are common, increasing the potential for precipitation-driven LEE. A 25-day Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation conducted at convection-permitting resolution and using a detailed microphysics scheme is carried out for the SGP to evaluate the effectiveness in modelling the wind and precipitation conditions relevant to LEE potential. WRF output for these properties is evaluated using radar observations of precipitation (including hail) and reflectivity, in situ wind speed measurements and wind power generation. This research demonstrates some skill for the primary drivers of LEE. Wind speeds, rainfall rates and precipitation totals show good agreement with observations. Here, the occurrence of precipitation during power producing wind speeds is also shown to exhibit fidelity. Hail events frequently occur during periods when wind turbines are rotating and are especially important to LEE in the SGP. The presence of hail is modelled with a mean proportion correct of 0.77 and an odds ratio 4.55. Further research is needed to demonstrate sufficient model performance to be actionable for the wind energy industry and there is evidence for positive model bias in cloud reflectivity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Entrainment versus Dilution in Tropical Deep Convection

Abstract The distinction between entrainment and dilution is investigated with cloud-resolving simulations of deep convection in a tropical environment. A method for estimating the rate of dilution by entrainment and detrainment is presented and calculated for a series of bubble simulations with a range of initial radii. Entrainment generally corresponds to dilution of convection, but the two quantities are not well correlated. Core dilution by entrainment is significantly reduced by the presence of a shell of moist air around the core. Dilution by entrainment also increases with increasing updraft velocity but only for sufficiently strong updrafts. Entrainment contributes significantly to the total net dilution, but detrainment and the various source/sink terms play large roles depending on the variable in question. Detrainment has a concentrating effect on average that balances out the dilution by entrainment. The experiments are also used to examine whether entrainment or dilution scale with cloud radius. The results support a weak negative relationship for dilution but not for entrainment. The sensitivity to resolution is briefly discussed. A toy Lagrangian thermal model is used to demonstrate the importance of the cloud shell as a thermodynamic buffer to reduce the dilution of the core by entrainment. The results suggest that explicit cloud heterogeneity may be a useful consideration for future convective parameterization development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Boundary Layer Height and Buoyancy Determine the Horizontal Scale of Convective Self-Aggregation

Organized rainstorms and their associated overturning circulations can self-emerge over an ocean surface with uniform temperature in cloud-resolving simulations. This phenomenon is referred to as convective self-aggregation. Convective self-aggregation is argued to be an important building block for tropical weather systems and may help regulate tropical atmospheric humidity and thereby tropical climate stability. Here the author presents a boundary layer theory for the horizontal scale λ of 2D (x, z) convective self-aggregation by considering both the momentum and energy constraints for steady circulations. This theory suggests that λ scales with the product of the boundary layer height h and the square root of the amplitude of density variation between aggregated moist and dry regions in the boundary layer, and that this density variation mainly arises from the moisture variation due to the virtual effect of water vapor. Furthermore, this theory predicts the following: 1) the order of magnitude of λ is ~2000 km, 2) the aspect ratio of the boundary layer λ/h increases with surface warming, and 3) λ decreases when the virtual effect of water vapor is disabled. These predictions are confirmed using a sui te of cloud-resolving simulations spanning a wide range of climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Analysis of Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations for Scale Dependence of Convective Momentum Transport

Abstract We use 3D cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of two mesoscale convective systems at midlatitudes and a simple statistical ensemble method to diagnose the scale dependency of convective momentum transport (CMT) and CMT-related properties and evaluate a parameterization scheme for the convection-induced pressure gradient (CIPG) developed by Gregory et al. Gregory et al. relate CIPG to a constant coefficient multiplied by mass flux and vertical mean wind shear. CRM results show that mass fluxes and CMT exhibit strong scale dependency in temporal evolution and vertical structure. The upgradient–downgradient CMT characteristics for updrafts are generally similar between small and large grid spacings, which is consistent with previous understanding, but they can be different for downdrafts across wide-ranging grid spacings. For the small to medium grid spacings (4–64 km), Gregory et al. reproduce some aspects of CIPG scale dependency except for underestimating the variations of CIPG as grid spacing decreases. However, for large grid spacings (128–512 km), Gregory et al. might even less adequately parameterize CIPG because it omits the contribution from either the nonlinear-shear or the buoyancy forcings. Further diagnosis of CRM results suggests that inclusion of nonlinear-shear forcing in Gregory et al. is needed for the large grid spacings. For the small to median grid spacings, a modified Gregory et al. with the three-updraft approach help better capture the variations of CIPG as grid spacing decreases compared to the single updraft approach. Further, the optimal coefficients used in Gregory et al. seem insensitive to grid spacings, but they might be different for updrafts and downdrafts, for different MCS types, and for zonal and meridional components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the Conservation of Energy Variables in Simulations of Deep Moist Convection

Abstract It is often assumed in parcel theory calculations, numerical models, and cumulus parameterizations that moist static energy (MSE) is adiabatically conserved. However, the adiabatic conservation of MSE is only approximate because of the assumption of hydrostatic balance. Two alternative variables are evaluated here: MSE − IB and MSE + KE, wherein IB is the path integral of buoyancy ( B ) and KE is kinetic energy. Both of these variables relax the hydrostatic assumption and are more precisely conserved than MSE. This article quantifies the errors that result from assuming that the aforementioned variables are conserved in large-eddy simulations (LES) of both disorganized and organized deep convection. Results show that both MSE − IB and MSE + KE better predict quantities along trajectories than MSE alone. MSE − IB is better conserved in isolated deep convection, whereas MSE − IB and MSE + KE perform comparably in squall-line simulations. These results are explained by differences between the pressure perturbation behavior of squall lines and isolated convection. Errors in updraft B diagnoses are universally minimized when MSE − IB is assumed to be adiabatically conserved, but only when moisture dependencies of heat capacity and temperature dependency of latent heating are accounted for. When less accurate latent heat and heat capacity formulae were used, MSE − IB yielded poorer B predictions than MSE due to compensating errors. Our results suggest that various applications would benefit from using either MSE − IB or MSE + KE instead of MSE with properly formulated heat capacities and latent heats.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Criticality in the Shallow-to-Deep Transition of Simulated Tropical Marine Convection

Idealized simulations of tropical, marine convection depict shallow, nonprecipitating cumuli located beneath the 0°C level transitioning into cumulonimbi that reach up to 12 km and higher. The timing of the transition was only weakly related to environmental stability, and 13 of the 15 simulations run with 5 different lapse-rate profiles had rain develop at nearly the same time after model start. The key quantity that apparently controlled deep convective formation was vertical acceleration inside cloudy updrafts between cloud base and the 0°C level. Below a critical value of updraft vertical acceleration, little rainfall occurred. Just as the domain-mean updraft acceleration reached the critical value, the first convection quickly grew to past 12 km altitude. Then, as acceleration increased above the critical value, rain rate averaged in the model domain increased quickly over about a 3-h-long period. The specific value of the critical updraft acceleration depended on how updrafts were defined and in what layer the acceleration was averaged; however, regardless of how criticality was defined, a robust relationship between domain-mean updraft vertical acceleration and rain rate occurred. Positive acceleration of updrafts below the 0°C level was present below 2.75 km and was largest in the 500 m above cloud base. However, the maximum difference between updraft and environmental temperatures occurred between 2 and 3 km. The domain-mean Archimedean buoyancy of updrafts relative to some reference state was a poor predictor for domain-mean rain rate. In conclusion, the exact value of the critical updraft acceleration likely depends on numerous other factors that were not investigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Large-Eddy Simulations of Convection Initiation over Heterogeneous, Low Terrain

Abstract Large-eddy simulations are conducted to investigate and physically interpret the impacts of heterogeneous, low terrain on deep-convection initiation (CI). The simulations are based on a case of shallow-to-deep convective transition over the Amazon River basin, and use idealized terrains with varying levels of ruggedness. The terrain is designed by specifying its power-spectral shape in wavenumber space, inverting to physical space assuming random phases for all wave modes, and scaling the terrain to have a peak height of 200 m. For the case in question, these modest terrain fields expedite CI by up to 2–3 h, largely due to the impacts of the terrain on the size of, and subcloud support for, incipient cumuli. Terrain-induced circulations enhance subcloud kinetic energy on the mesoscale, which is realized as wider and longer-lived subcloud circulations. When the updraft branches of these circulations breach the level of free convection, they initiate wider and more persistent cumuli that subsequently undergo less entrainment-induced cloud dilution and detrainment-induced mass loss. As a result, the clouds become more vigorous and penetrate deeper into the troposphere. Larger-scale terrains are more effective than smaller-scale terrains in promoting CI because they induce larger enhancements in both the width and the persistence of subcloud updrafts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the Spatiotemporal Variability of Tropical Orographic Rainfall Using Convective Plume Buoyancy

Abstract Mechanical forcing by orography affects precipitating convection across many tropical regions, but controls on the intensity and horizontal extent of the orographic precipitation peak and rain shadow remain poorly understood. A recent theory explains this control of precipitation as arising from modulation of lower-tropospheric temperature and moisture by orographic mechanical forcing, setting the distribution of convective rainfall by controlling parcel buoyancy. Using satellite and reanalysis data, we evaluate this theory by investigating spatiotemporal precipitation variations in six mountainous tropical regions spanning South and Southeast Asia, and the Maritime Continent. We show that a strong relationship holds in these regions between daily precipitation and a measure of convective plume buoyancy. This measure depends on boundary layer thermodynamic properties and lower-free-tropospheric moisture and temperature. Consistent with the theory, temporal variations in lower-free-tropospheric temperature are primarily modulated by orographic mechanical lifting through changes in cross-slope wind speed. However, winds directed along background horizontal moisture gradients also influence lower-tropospheric moisture variations in some regions. The buoyancy measure is also shown to explain many aspects of the spatial patterns of precipitation. Finally, we present a linear model with two horizontal dimensions that combines mountain wave dynamics with a linearized closure exploiting the relationship between precipitation and plume buoyancy. In some regions, this model skillfully captures the spatial structure and intensity of rainfall; it underestimates rainfall in regions where time-mean ascent in large-scale convergence zones shapes lower-tropospheric humidity. Overall, these results provide new understanding of fundamental processes controlling subseasonal and spatial variations in tropical orographic precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Microphysical and Dynamical Effects of Mixed-Phase Hydrometeors in Convective Storms Using a Bin Microphysics Model: Melting

Abstract The dynamics of convective systems are inherently linked to microphysical processes through phase changes that result in warming or cooling. This is especially true of near-surface cooling via evaporation and melting of falling hydrometeors. In most numerical simulations, the melting of frozen hydrometeors (e.g., hail, graupel, snow) is computed within parameterized bulk microphysics schemes, many of which lack the ability to accurately represent mixed-phase hydrometeors (i.e., partially melted ice), which can affect hydrometeor sedimentation, melting, and evaporation of shed drops. To better understand the microphysical and dynamical effects of melting in convective storms, a bin microphysics scheme was used in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for two idealized cases: a supercell storm and a squall line. Physically based predicted liquid fraction, instantaneous melting, and instantaneous shedding schemes were used to examine the role and importance of melting hydrometeors for these two storm modes. The results suggest that the amount of precipitation is dependent on the representation of melting. Moreover, the dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of the simulated storms are found to differ substantially between the melting scenarios, resulting in varied storm system evolution; these differences are found to be dependent on the ambient aerosol concentration, although the differences induced by changing the representation of melting generally outweigh those of changing the aerosol loading. The results highlight the large role of melting in convective storm characteristics and suggest that further model improvements are needed in the near future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Study of Convection Heat Transfer in a Very High Temperature Reactor Flow Channel: Numerical and Experimental Results

Very High Temperature Reactors (VHTRs) are one of the Generation IV gas-cooled reactor models proposed for implementation in next generation nuclear power plants. A high temperature/pressure test facility for forced and natural circulation experiments has been constructed. This test facility consists of a single flow channel in a 2.7 m (9’) long graphite column equipped with four 2.3kW heaters. Extensive 3D numerical modeling provides a detailed analysis of the thermal-hydraulic behavior under steady-state, transient, and accident scenarios. In addition, forced/mixed convection experiments with air, nitrogen and helium were conducted for inlet Reynolds numbers from 500 to 70,000. Our numerical results were validated with forced convection data displaying maximum percentage errors under 15%, using commercial finite element package, COMSOL Multiphysics. Based on this agreement, important information can be extracted from the model, with regards to the modified radial velocity and property gas profiles. Our work also examines flow laminarization for a full range of Reynolds numbers including laminar, transition and turbulent flow under forced convection and its impact on heat transfer under various scenarios to examine the thermal-hydraulic phenomena that could occur during both normal operation and accident conditions.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Linking deep convection and phytoplankton blooms in the northern Labrador Sea in a changing climate

Wintertime convective mixing plays a pivotal role in the sub-polar North Atlantic spring phytoplankton blooms by favoring phytoplankton survival in the competition between light-dependent production and losses due to grazing and gravitational settling. We use satellite and ocean reanalyses to show that the area-averaged maximum winter mixed layer depth is positively correlated with April chlorophyll concentration in the northern Labrador Sea. A simple theoretical framework is developed to understand the relative roles of winter/spring convection and gravitational sedimentation in spring blooms in this region. Combining climate model simulations that project a weakening of wintertime Labrador Sea convection from Arctic sea ice melt with our framework suggests a potentially significant reduction in the initial fall phytoplankton population that survive the winter to seed the region's spring bloom by the end of the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

The Mid-latitude Continental Convective Clouds (MC3E) Experiment Final Campaign Report

The Mid-latitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) took place from April 22 through June 6, 2011, centered at the ARM Southern Great Plains site (http://www.arm.gov/sites/sgp) in northcentral Oklahoma. MC3E was a collaborative effort between the ARM Climate Research Facility and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Ground Validation (GV) program. The campaign leveraged the largest ground-based observing infrastructure available in the central United States, including recent upgrades through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, combined with an extensive sounding array, remote sensing and in situ aircraft observations, and additional radar and in situ precipitation instrumentation. The overarching goal of the campaign was to provide a three-dimensional characterization of convective clouds and precipitation for the purpose of improving the representation of convective lifecycle in atmospheric models and the reliability of satellite-based retrievals of precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Transient Mixed Convection Validation for NGNP

The results of this project are best described by the papers and dissertations that resulted from the work. They are included in their entirety in this document. They are: (1) Jeff Harris PhD dissertation (focused mainly on forced convection); (2) Blake Lance PhD dissertation (focused mainly on mixed and transient convection). This dissertation is in multi-paper format and includes the article currently submitted and one to be submitted shortly; and, (3) JFE paper on CFD Validation Benchmark for Forced Convection.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Parametric Sensitivity and Calibration for Kain-Fritsch Convective Parameterization Scheme in the WRF Model

Convective parameterizations used in weather and climate models all display sensitivity to model resolution and variable skill in different climatic regimes. Although parameters in convective schemes can be calibrated using observations to reduce model errors, it is not clear if the optimal parameters calibrated based on regional data can robustly improve model skill across different model resolutions and climatic regimes. In this study, this issue is investigated using a regional modeling framework based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To quantify the response and sensitivity of model performance to model parameters, we identified five key input parameters and specified their ranges in the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convection scheme in WRF and calibrated them across different spatial resolutions, climatic regimes, and radiation schemes using observed precipitation data. Results show that the optimal values for the five input parameters in the KF scheme are close and model sensitivity and error exhibit similar dependence on the input parameters for all experiments conducted in this study despite differences in the precipitation climatology. We found that the model overall performances in simulating precipitation are more sensitive to the coefficients of downdraft (Pd) and entrainment (Pe) mass flux and starting height of downdraft (Ph). However, we found that rainfall biases, which are probably more related to structural errors, still exist over some regions in the simulation even with the optimal parameters, suggesting further studies are needed to identify the sources of uncertainties and reduce the model biases or structural errors associated with missed or misrepresented physical processes and/or potential problems with the modeling framework.

calibration↗

DOE OSTI2017

Spatial Inhomogeneity of Kinetic and Magnetic Dissipations in Thermal Convection

We investigate the inhomogeneity of kinetic and magnetic dissipations in thermal convection using high-resolution calculations. In statistically steady turbulence, the injected and dissipated energies are balanced. This means that a large amount of energy is continuously converted into internal energy via dissipation. As in thermal convection, downflows are colder than upflows and the inhomogeneity of the dissipation potentially changes the convection structure. Our investigation of the inhomogeneity of the dissipation shows the following. (1) More dissipation is seen around the bottom of the calculation domain, and this tendency is promoted with the magnetic field. (2) The dissipation in the downflow is much larger than that in the upflow. The dissipation in the downflow is more than 80% of the total at maximum. This tendency is also promoted with the magnetic field. (3) Although 2D probability density functions of the kinetic and magnetic dissipations versus the vertical velocity are similar, the kinetic and magnetic dissipations are not well correlated. Our result suggests that the spatial inhomogeneity of the dissipation is significant and should be considered when modeling a small-scale strong magnetic field generated with an efficient small-scale dynamo for low-resolution calculations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Three-dimensional Hydrodynamic Simulations of Convective Nuclear Burning in Massive Stars Near Iron Core Collapse

Nonspherical structure in massive stars at the point of iron core collapse can have a qualitative impact on the properties of the ensuing core-collapse supernova explosions and the multimessenger signals they produce. Strong perturbations can aid successful explosions by strengthening turbulence in the postshock region. Here we report on a set of 4π 3D hydrodynamic simulations of O- and Si-shell burning in massive star models of varied initial masses using MESA and the FLASH simulation framework. We evolve four separate 3D models for roughly the final 10 minutes prior to and including iron core collapse. We consider initial 1D MESA models with masses of 14, 20, and 25 M ⊙ to survey a range of O/Si-shell density and compositional configurations. Further, we characterize the convective shells in our 3D models and compare them to the corresponding 1D models. In general, we find that the angle-average convective speeds in our 3D simulations near collapse are three to four times larger than the convective speeds predicted by MESA at the same epoch for our chosen mixing length parameter of α MLT = 1.5. In three of our simulations, we observe significant power in the spherical harmonic decomposition of the radial velocity field at harmonic indices of ℓ = 1–3 near collapse. Our results suggest that large-scale modes are common in massive stars near collapse and should be considered a key aspect of presupernova progenitor models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗