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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

Biological Response to SPE Exposures

It has long been recognized that a single solar particle event (SPE) can produce, over a short period of time, exposures on the order of LD50 for humans under normal physiological conditions. It is further recognized that recovery from injury over the period of exposure would greatly increase the chances of survival (dose rate effects) although such effects were left unquantified. In the present report we use the bioresponse model derived from a broad range of animal and human exposure data for evaluation of troop readiness in tactical nuclear warfare to evaluate the biological risk posed by the solar event of 4 August 1972. The astronaut blood forming organ (BFO) exposure in deep space would have been 2.2 Sv (1.6 Gy) in a space suit, 1.8 Sv (1.3 Gy) in an aluminum pressure vessel, and 0.7 Sv (0.5 Gy) in an equipment room compared to an X-ray mortality threshold of 1.5 Gy (assuming high dose rate). We find BFO dose rate effectiveness factors for this SPE on the order of 3 to 4, greatly reducing the mortality risks for this event. There is an approximate 3 percent chance that an even larger event may occur for which exposures could be 2-4 times higher. Assured survival of the astronaut requires added shelter shielding and a warning system for this event. The required mass of the shelter shield can be greatly reduced by using hydrogenous materials such as polymers, water, food, and other biological materials in its construction. Limitations of the current bioresponse model arise from the exposures taking place in the microgravity environment wherein the immune system is already challenged and the effective mortality threshold may be reduced by a factor of two. Such microgravity effects could greatly affect astronaut risks.

Wilson, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Midodrine prevents orthostatic intolerance associated with simulated spaceflight

Many astronauts after being weightless in space become hypotensive and presyncopal when they assume an upright position. This phenomenon, known as orthostatic intolerance, may interfere with astronaut function during reentry and after spaceflight and may limit the ability of an astronaut to exit a landed spacecraft unaided during an emergency. Orthostatic intolerance is more pronounced after long-term spaceflight and is a major concern with respect to the extended flights expected aboard the International Space Station and for interplanetary exploration class missions, such as a human mission to Mars. Fully effective countermeasures to this problem have not yet been developed. To test the hypothesis that alpha-adrenergic stimulation might provide an effective countermeasure, we conducted a 16-day head-down-tilt bed-rest study (an analog of weightlessness) using normal human volunteers and administered the alpha(1)-agonist drug midodrine at the end of the bed-rest period. Midodrine was found to significantly ameliorate excessive decreases in blood pressure and presyncope during a provocative tilt test. We conclude that midodrine may be an effective countermeasure for the prevention of orthostatic intolerance following spaceflight.

NASA Center JSC↗
NASA NTRS2000

Altered cytokine production by specific human peripheral blood cell subsets immediately following space flight

In this study, flow cytometry was used to positively identify the specific lymphocyte subsets exhibiting space flight-induced alterations in cytokine production. Whole blood samples were collected from 27 astronauts at three points (one preflight, two postflight) surrounding four space shuttle missions. Assays performed included serum/urine stress hormones, white blood cell (WBC) phenotyping, and intracellular cytokine production following mitogenic stimulation. Absolute levels of peripheral granulocytes were significantly elevated following space flight, but the levels of circulating lymphocytes and monocytes were unchanged. Lymphocyte subset analysis demonstrated a decreased percentage of T cells, whereas percentages of B cells and natural killer (NK) cells remained unchanged after flight. Nearly all the astronauts exhibited an increased CD4/CD8 T cell ratio. Assessment of naive (CD45RA+) vs. memory (CD45RO+) CD4+ T cell subsets was ambiguous, and subjects tended to group within specific missions. Although no significant trend was seen in absolute monocyte levels, a significant decrease in the percentage of the CD14+ CD16+ monocytes was seen following space flight in all subjects tested. T cell (CD3+) production of interleukin-2 (IL-2) was significantly decreased after space flight, as was IL-2 production by both CD4+ and CD8+ T cell subsets. Production of interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma) was not altered by space flight for the CD8+ cell subset, but there was a significant decrease in IFN-gamma production for the CD4+ T cell subset. Serum and urine stress hormone analysis indicated significant physiologic stresses in astronauts following space flight. Altered peripheral leukocyte subsets, altered serum and urine stress hormone levels, and altered T cell cytokine secretion profiles were all observed postflight. In addition, there appeared to be differential susceptibility to space flight regarding cytokine secretion by T cell subsets. These alterations may be the result of either microgravity exposure or the physiologic stresses of landing and readaptation to unit gravity. Future studies, including in-flight analysis or sampling, will be necessary to determine the cause of these alterations.

NASA Discipline Cell Biology↗
NASA NTRS1999

Mathematical model to estimate risk of calcium-containing renal stones

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Astronauts exposed to microgravity during the course of spaceflight undergo physiologic changes that alter the urinary environment so as to increase the risk of renal stone formation. This study was undertaken to identify a simple method with which to evaluate the potential risk of renal stone development during spaceflight. METHOD: We used a large database of urinary risk factors obtained from 323 astronauts before and after spaceflight to generate a mathematical model with which to predict the urinary supersaturation of calcium stone forming salts. RESULT: This model, which involves the fewest possible analytical variables (urinary calcium, citrate, oxalate, phosphorus, and total volume), reliably and accurately predicted the urinary supersaturation of the calcium stone forming salts when compared to results obtained from a group of 6 astronauts who collected urine during flight. CONCLUSIONS: The use of this model will simplify both routine medical monitoring during spaceflight as well as the evaluation of countermeasures designed to minimize renal stone development. This model also can be used for Earth-based applications in which access to analytical resources is limited.

NASA Center JSC↗
NASA NTRS1999

Energy expenditure and balance during spaceflight on the space shuttle

The objectives of this study were as follows: 1) to measure human energy expenditure (EE) during spaceflight on a shuttle mission by using the doubly labeled water (DLW) method; 2) to determine whether the astronauts were in negative energy balance during spaceflight; 3) to use the comparison of change in body fat as measured by the intake DLW EE, 18O dilution, and dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) to validate the DLW method for spaceflight; and 4) to compare EE during spaceflight against that found with bed rest. Two experiments were conducted: a flight experiment (n = 4) on the 16-day 1996 life and microgravity sciences shuttle mission and a 6 degrees head-down tilt bed rest study with controlled dietary intake (n = 8). The bed rest study was designed to simulate the flight experiment and included exercise. Two EE determinations were done before flight (bed rest), during flight (bed rest), and after flight (recovery). Energy intake and N balance were monitored for the entire period. Results were that body weight, water, fat, and energy balance were unchanged with bed rest. For the flight experiment, decreases in weight (2.6 +/- 0.4 kg, P < 0.05) and N retention (-2. 37 +/- 0.45 g N/day, P < 0.05) were found. Dietary intake for the four astronauts was reduced in flight (3,025 +/- 180 vs. 1,943 +/- 179 kcal/day, P < 0.05). EE in flight was 3,320 +/- 155 kcal/day, resulting in a negative energy balance of 1,355 +/- 80 kcal/day (-15. 7 +/- 1.0 kcal. kg-1. day-1, P < 0.05). This corresponded to a loss of 2.1 +/- 0.4 kg body fat, which was within experimental error of the fat loss determined by 18O dilution (-1.4 +/- 0.5 kg) and DEXA (-2.4 +/- 0.4 kg). All three methods showed no change in body fat with bed rest. In conclusion, 1) the DLW method for measuring EE during spaceflight is valid, 2) the astronauts were in severe negative energy balance and oxidized body fat, and 3) in-flight energy (E) requirements can be predicted from the equation: E = 1.40 x resting metabolic rate + exercise.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1997

Physical examination during space flight

OBJECTIVE: To develop techniques for conducting a physical examination in microgravity and to describe and document the physiologic changes noted with use of a modified basic physical examination. DESIGN: On the basis of data gathered from physical examinations on KC-135 flights, three physical variables were assessed serially in astronauts during two shuttle missions (of 8- and 10-day duration, respectively). Preflight, in-flight, and postflight examinations were conducted by trained physician-astronauts or flight surgeons, who used this modified examination. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Five male and two female crewmembers participated in the "hands-on" physical examination of all physiologic systems except the genitourinary system. Level of edema, intensity of bowel sounds, and peripheral reflexes were assessed and graded. RESULTS: This investigation identified unique elements of a physical examination performed during space flight that will assist in the development of standard methods for conducting examinations of astronauts in weightlessness. In addition, demonstrable changes induced by microgravity were noted in most physiologic systems examined. CONCLUSION: The data support the hypothesis that the microgravity examination differs from that conducted on earth or in a 1g environment. In addition, alterations in the physiologic response can be detected with use of hands-on technique. These data are invaluable in the development of optimal medical care for humans in space.

STS Shuttle Project↗
NASA NTRS1995

Eye movements and motion perception induced by off-vertical axis rotation (OVAR) at small angles of tilt after spaceflight

The nystagmus and motion perception of two astronauts were recorded during Earth-vertical axis rotation and during off-vertical axis rotation (OVAR) before and after 7 days of spaceflight. Postflight, the peak velocity and duration of per- and postrotatory nystagmus during velocity steps about the Earth-vertical axis were the same as preflight values. During OVAR at constant velocity (45/s, tilt angles successively 5, 10, and 15 degrees), the mean horizontal slow-phase eye velocity (bias), produced by the 'velocity storage mechanism' in the vestibular system, and the peak-to-peak amplitude (modulation) in horizontal eye velocity and position, generated from the output of otolith afferents, were also the same before as after flight. There were, however, changes in the vertical eve position and in the perceived body motion during OVAR. The angle of the perceived body path described as a cone was larger in both astronauts postflight. One astronaut experienced either a large cone angle with its axis upright, or a smaller cone angle with its axis tilted backwards, accompanied by an upward vertical eye drift. These results suggest an increase in the sensitivity of the otolithic system after spaceflight and a longer period of readaptation to Earth's gravity for otolith-induced responses than for canal-induced responses. Our data support the hypothesis that just after spaceflight the CNS generally interprets changes in the otolith signals to be due to translation rather than to tilt.

manned↗
NASA NTRS2004

Securing Safety with Sensors

The Robot Systems Technology Branch at NASA's Johnson Space Center collaborated with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency to design Robonaut, a humanoid robot developed to assist astronauts with Extra Vehicular Activities (EVA) such as space structure assembly and repair operations. By working side-by-side with astronauts or going where risks are too great for people, Robonaut is expected to expand the Space Agency s ability for construction and discovery. NASA engineers equipped Robonaut with human-looking, dexterous hands complete with five fingers to accomplish its tasks. The Robonaut hand is one of the first being developed for space EVA use and is the closest in size and capability to a suited astronaut s hand. As part of the development process, an advanced sensor system was needed to provide an improved method to measure the movement and forces exerted by Robonaut s forearms and hands.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2005

Evaluation of shoulder integrity in space: first report of musculoskeletal US on the International Space Station

Investigative procedures were approved by Henry Ford Human Investigation Committee and NASA Johnson Space Center Committee for Protection of Human Subjects. Informed consent was obtained. Authors evaluated ability of nonphysician crewmember to obtain diagnostic-quality musculoskeletal ultrasonographic (US) data of the shoulder by following a just-in-time training algorithm and using real-time remote guidance aboard the International Space Station (ISS). ISS Expedition-9 crewmembers attended a 2.5-hour didactic and hands-on US training session 4 months before launch. Aboard the ISS, they completed a 1-hour computer-based Onboard Proficiency Enhancement program 7 days before examination. Crewmembers did not receive specific training in shoulder anatomy or shoulder US techniques. Evaluation of astronaut shoulder integrity was done by using a Human Research Facility US system. Crew used special positioning techniques for subject and operator to facilitate US in microgravity environment. Common anatomic reference points aided initial probe placement. Real-time US video of shoulder was transmitted to remote experienced sonologists in Telescience Center at Johnson Space Center. Probe manipulation and equipment adjustments were guided with verbal commands from remote sonologists to astronaut operators to complete rotator cuff evaluation. Comprehensive US of crewmember's shoulder included transverse and longitudinal images of biceps and supraspinatus tendons and articular cartilage surface. Total examination time required to guide astronaut operator to acquire necessary images was approximately 15 minutes. Multiple arm and probe positions were used to acquire dynamic video images that were of excellent quality to allow evaluation of shoulder integrity. Postsession download and analysis of high-fidelity US images collected onboard demonstrated additional anatomic detail that could be used to exclude subtle injury. Musculoskeletal US can be performed in space by minimally trained operators by using remote guidance. This technique can be used to evaluate shoulder integrity in symptomatic crewmembers after strenuous extravehicular activities or to monitor microgravity-associated changes in musculoskeletal anatomy. Just-in-time training, combined with remote experienced physician guidance, may provide a useful approach to complex medical tasks performed by nonexperienced personnel in a variety of remote settings, including current and future space programs. (c) RSNA, 2004.

Space Flight/education↗
NASA NTRS2004

INSD-Hemodynamics

Hemodynamics (potentially will support Digital Astronaut program): Hemodynamics (potentially will support Digital Astronaut program): During long-duration space missions, astronauts have to adapt themselves to.altered circumstance of microgravity. Blood circulation undergoes significant adaptation during and after space flight. The blood flow through an anatomical Circle of Willis configuration is simulated to provide means for studying gravitational effects on the brain circulation.

Cetin, Kiris↗
NASA NTRS2004

Wave Propagation in 2-D Granular Matrix and Dust Mitigation of Fabrics for Space Exploration Mission

Wave Propagation study is essential to exploring the soil on Mars or Moon and Dust Mitigation is a necessity in terms of crew's health in exploration missions. The study of Dust Mitigation has a significant impact on the crew s health when astronauts track dust back into their living space after exploration trips. We are trying to use piezoelectric fiber to create waves and vibrations at certain critical frequencies and amplitudes so that we can shake the particles off from the astronaut s fabrics. By shaking off the dust and removing it, the astronauts no longer have to worry about breathing in small and possibly hazardous materials, when they are back in their living quarters. The Wave Propagation in 2-D Granular Matrix studies how the individual particles interact with each other when a pressure wave travels through the matrix. This experiment allows us to understand how wave propagates through soils and other materials. By knowing the details about the interactions of particles when they act as a medium for waves, we can better understand how wave propagates through soils and other materials. With this experiment, we can study how less gravity effects the wave propagation and hence device a way to study soils in space and on Moon or Mars. Some scientists treat the medium that waves travel through as a "black box", they did not pay much attention to how individual particles act as wave travels through them. With this data, I believe that we can use it to model ways to measure the properties of different materials such as density and composition. In order to study how the particles interact with each other, I have continued Juan Agui's experiment of the effects of impacts on a 2-D matrix. By controlling the inputs and measuring the outputs of the system, I will be able to study now the particles in that system interact with each other. I will also try to model this with the software called PFC2D in order to obtain theoretical data to compare with the experiment. PFC2D is a program that allows the user to control the number of particle's characteristic, and the environment of the particle. With this I can run simulations that mimic the impulse test. This software uses a language called FISH, probably created by the creator of the software. This means that in order to model anything, one must use the command terminal instead of GUI's. I will also use this program to simulate the Moon/Mars simulate adhering to the fabric for the Dust Mitigation project. My goals for this summer are just to complete preliminary studies of the feasibility of the Shaking Fabric, learn the PFC-2D program, and to complete building and testing the wave propagation experiment.

Thanh, Phi Hung X.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Response Of Mineralizing And Non-Mineralizing Bone Cells To Fluid Flow: An In Vitro Model For Mechanotransruction

Humans reach peak bone mass at age 30. After this point, we lose 1 to 2 percent of bone mass each decade. In the microgravity environment of space, astronauts lose bone mass at an accelerated rate of 1 to 2 percent each month. When astronauts travel to Mars, they may be in space for as long as 3 years. During this time, they may lose about half of their bone mass from weight-bearing bones. This loss may be irreversible. The drastic loss in bone that astronauts experience in space makes them much more vulnerable to fractures. In addition, the corresponding removal of calcium from bone results in higher levels of calcium in the blood, which increases the risk of developing kidney stones. Currently, studies are being conducted which investigate factors governing bone adaptation and mechanotransduction. Bone is constantly adapting in response to mechanical stimuli. Increased mechanical loading stimulates bone formation and suppresses bone resorption. Reduction in mechanical loading caused by bedrest, disuse, or microgravity results in decreased bone formation and possibly increased bone resorption. Osteoblasts and osteoclasts are the two main cell types that participate in bone remodeling. Osteoblasts are anabolic (bone-forming) cells and osteoclasts are catabolic (bone-resorbing) cells. In microgravity, the activity of osteoblasts slows down and the activity of osteoclasts may speed up, causing a loss of bone density. Mechanotransduction, the molecular mechanism by which mechanical stimuli are converted to biochemical signals, is not yet understood. Exposure of cells to fluid flow imposes a shear stress on the cells. Several studies have shown that the shear stress that results from fluid flow induces a cellular response similar to that induced by mechanical loading. Thus, fluid flow can be used as an in vitro model to simulate the mechanical stress that bone cells experience in vivo. Previous in vitro studies have shown that fluid flow induces several responses in osteoblasts, including increased proliferation, osteoblastic differentiation, alkaline phosphatase activity, and production of nitric oxide, prostaglandins, and osteopontin. Several proteins have been implicated in osteoblastic mechanotransduction including Bone Morphogenetic Protein-2 (BMP-2), parathyroid hormone, 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 receptor, osteopontin (OPN), osteoprotegerin (OPG), and alkaline phosphatase (AP). We will characterize relative levels of each protein in mineralizing or non-mineralizing MC3T3 osteoblastic cells that have been exposed to fluid flow compared to non-fluid flow using immunofluorescent staining and two- photon laser microscopy as well as western blotting. Because calcium-mediated pathways are important in osteoblastic signaling, we will transfect MC3T3 cells with cameleon probes for Ca2+ containing YFP and CFP. Results will be analyzed using FRET/FLIM to study differential release of intracellular Ca(2+) in response to fluid flow and conditions inducing matrix mineralization. In addition, we plan to conduct several microarray experiments to determine differential gene expression in MC3T3 cells in response to fluid flow and conditions inducing mineralization.

Makuch, Lauren A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Practical Pocket PC Application w/Biometric Security

I work in the Flight Software Engineering Branch, where we provide design and development of embedded real-time software applications for flight and supporting ground systems to support the NASA Aeronautics and Space Programs. In addition, this branch evaluates, develops and implements new technologies for embedded real-time systems, and maintains a laboratory for applications of embedded technology. The majority of microchips that are used in modern society have been programmed using embedded technology. These small chips can be found in microwaves, calculators, home security systems, cell phones and more. My assignment this summer entails working with an iPAQ HP 5500 Pocket PC. This top-of-the-line hand-held device is one of the first mobile PC's to introduce biometric security capabilities. Biometric security, in this case a fingerprint authentication system, is on the edge of technology as far as securing information. The benefits of fingerprint authentication are enormous. The most significant of them are that it is extremely difficult to reproduce someone else's fingerprint, and it is equally difficult to lose or forget your own fingerprint as opposed to a password or pin number. One of my goals for this summer is to integrate this technology with another Pocket PC application. The second task for the summer is to develop a simple application that provides an Astronaut EVA (Extravehicular Activity) Log Book capability. The Astronaut EVA Log Book is what an astronaut would use to report the status of field missions, crew physical health, successes, future plans, etc. My goal is to develop a user interface into which these data fields can be entered and stored. The applications that I am developing are created using eMbedded Visual C++ 4.0 with the Pocket PC 2003 Software Development Kit provided by Microsoft.

Logan, Julian↗
NASA NTRS2005

Urban forms, physical activity and body mass index: a cross-city examination using ISS Earth Observation photographs

Johnson Space Center has archived thousands of astronauts acquired Earth images. Some spectacular images have been widely used in news media and in k-12 class room, but their potential utilizations in health promotion and disease prevention have relatively untapped. The project uses daytime ISS photographs to define city forms and links them to city or metropolitan level health data in a multicity context. Road connectivity, landuse mix and Shannon's information indices were used in the classification of photographs. In contrast to previous remote-sensing studies, which tend to focus on a single city or a portion of a city, this project utilized photographs of 39 U.S. cities. And in contrast to previous health-promotion studies on the built environment, which tend to rely on survey respondents' responses to evaluate road connectivity or mixed land use for a single study site, the project examined the built environments of multiple cities based on ISS photos. It was found that road connectivity and landuse mix were not statistically significant by themselves, but the composite measure of the Shannon index was significantly associated with physical activity, but not BMI. Consequently, leisure-time physical activity seems to be positively associated with the urban complexity scale. It was also concluded that unless they are planned or designed in advance, photographs taken by astronauts generally are not appropriate for a study of a single-site built environment nor are they appropriate for a study of infectious diseases at a local scale. To link urban built environment with city-wide health indicators, both the traditional nadir view and oblique views should be emphasized in future astronauts' earth observation photographs.

Lin, Ge↗
NASA NTRS2005

Real-Time Analysis of Electrocardiographic Data for Heart Rate Turbulence

Episodes of ventricular ectopy (premature ventricular contractions, PVCs) have been reported in several astronauts and cosmonauts during space flight. Indeed, the "Occurrence of Serious Cardiac Dysrhythmias" is now NASA's #1 priority critical path risk factor in the cardiovascular area that could jeopardize a mission as well as the health and welfare of the astronaut. Epidemiological, experimental and clinical observations suggest that severe autonomic dysfunction and/or transient cardiac ischemia can initiate potentially lethal ventricular arrhythmias. On earth, Heart Rate Turbulence (HRT) in response to PVCs has been shown to provide not only an index of baroreflex sensitivity (BRS), but also more importantly, an index of the propensity for lethal ventricular arrhythmia. An HRT procedure integrated into the existing advanced electrocardiographic system under development in JSC's Human Adaptation and Countermeasures Office was developed to provide a system for assessment of PVCs in a real-time monitoring or offline (play-back) scenario. The offline heart rate turbulence software program that was designed in the summer of 2003 was refined and modified for "close to" real-time results. In addition, assistance was provided with the continued development of the real-time heart rate variability software program. These programs should prove useful in evaluating the risk for arrhythmias in astronauts who do and who do not have premature ventricular contractions, respectively. The software developed for these projects has not been included in this report. Please contact Dr. Todd Schlegel for information on acquiring a specific program.

Greco, E. Carl, Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2005

MRI-Based Computational Fluid Dynamics in Experimental Vascular Models: Toward the Development of an Approach for Prediction of Cardiovascular Changes During Prolonged Space Missions

A priority of NASA is to identify and study possible risks to astronauts health during prolonged space missions [l]. The goal is to develop a procedure for a preflight evaluation of the cardiovascular system of an astronaut and to forecast how it will be affected during the mission. To predict these changes, a computational cardiovascular model must be constructed. Although physiology data can be used to make a general model, a more desirable subject-specific model requires anatomical, functional, and flow data from the specific astronaut. MRI has the unique advantage of providing images with all of the above information, including three-directional velocity data which can be used as boundary conditions in a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) program [2,3]. MRI-based CFD is very promising for reproduction of the flow patterns of a specific subject and prediction of changes in the absence of gravity. The aim of this study was to test the feasibility of this approach by reconstructing the geometry of MRI-scanned arterial models and reproducing the MRI-measured velocities using CFD simulations on these geometries.

Spirka, T. A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Role of Toxicity Testing in NASA's Future Missions

NASA has deemed it necessary to perform the Toxicity Test (offgassing of toxic products) on all non-metallic materials proposed for use in habitable environments onboard the Shuttle and International Space Station flS,!J. This requirement stems from the desire to maintain a healthy, breathable atmosphere for the astronauts. As Shuttle missions have lengthened and with the habitation of the International Space Station, the need for understanding and controlling the contaminants in breathable atmospheres has increased. The increased duration of humans in space present two concerns to the astronauts with regard to their breathing air: 1. Breathing the on-board air. 2. Improved cleaning/filtering of existing air. Trends using existing toxicity data for materials and an understanding of the air cleaning/filtering capabilities in relation to Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentrations (SMAC) of offgassed components are explored. Recommendations are made for materials selection practices that should be followed to ensure a safe and healthy breathing environment for astronauts aboard these long term projects. The importance and relevance of Toxicity testing and materials selection in conjunction with the new NASA missions of creating a human presence on the Moon and traveling to Mars are described.

Whitfield, Steve↗
NASA NTRS2005

Forecasting the Impact of an 1859-calibre Superstorm on Satellite Resources

We have assembled a database of operational satellites in orbit as of 2004, and have developed a series of simple models to assess the economic impacts to this resource caused by various scenarios of superstorm events possible during the next sunspot cycle between 2010 and 2014. Despite the apparent robustness of our satellite assets against the kinds of storms we have encountered during the satellite era, our models suggest a potential economic loss exceeding $10(exp 11) for satellite replacement and lost profitability caused by a once a century single storm similar to the 1859 superstorm. From a combination of power system and attitude control system (the most vulnerable) failures, we estimate that 80 satellites (LEO, MEO, GEO) may be disabled as a consequence of a superstorm event. Additional consequences may include the failure of many of the GPS, GLONASS and Galileo satellite systems in MEO. Approximately 98 LEO satellites that normally would not have re-entered for many decades, may prematurely de-orbit in ca 2021 as a result of the temporarily increased atmospheric drag caused by the superstorm event occurring in 2012. The $10(exp 11) International Space Station may lose at least 15 kilometers of altitude, placing it in critical need for re-boosting by an amount that is potentially outside the range of typical Space Shuttle operations during the previous solar maximum in ca 2000, and at a time when NASA plans to decommission the Space Shuttle. Several LEO satellites will unexpectedly be placed on orbits that enter the ISS zone of avoidance, requiring some action by ground personnel and ISS astronauts to avoid close encounters. Radiation effects on astronauts have also been considered and could include a range of possibilities from acute radiation sickness for astronauts inside spacecraft, to near-lethal doses during EVAs. The specifics depends very sensitively on the spectral hardness of the accompanying SPE event. Currently, the ability to forecast extreme particle events and coronal mass ejections, or predict their fluences and geo-severity in the 24-hrs prior to the event, appears to be no better than 50/50. If the events of the 1859 superstorm serve as a guide, the scope of a contemporary superstorm will most certainly be an awesome event, but one that the vast majority of our other satellite resources may reasonably be expected to survive.

Odenwald, Sten↗