Results for “variational analysis” — Page 70

NASA NTRS1993

Galileo Satellite Tour: Orbit Determination

This paper discusses orbit determination results for the Galileo satellite tour. Lacking a high gain antenna, the mission will use a low gain antenna for communication and tracking. This change implies far less navigation data will be available than previously expected. A baseline orbit analysis was completed assuming this decreased data schedule. Variations on this baseline were studied to determine sensitivity to data loss. Results indicate that the probability of completing the tour is less than 90 percent, although future improvements in orbit determination promise to raise the probability of completion above 90 percent.

Haw, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Environmental/Thermal Barrier Coatings for Ceramic Matrix Composites: Thermal Tradeoff Studies

Recent interest in environmental/thermal barrier coatings (EBC/TBCs) has prompted research to develop life-prediction methodologies for the coating systems of advanced high-temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMCs). Heat-transfer analysis of EBC/TBCs for CMCs is an essential part of the effort. It helps establish the resulting thermal profile through the thickness of the CMC that is protected by the EBC/TBC system. This report documents the results of a one-dimensional analysis of an advanced high-temperature CMC system protected with an EBC/TBC system. The one-dimensional analysis was used for tradeoff studies involving parametric variation of the conductivity; the thickness of the EBC/TBCs, bond coat, and CMC substrate; and the cooling requirements. The insight gained from the results will be used to configure a viable EBC/TBC system for CMC liners that meet the desired hot surface, cold surface, and substrate temperature requirements.

Murthy, Pappu L. M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

High-Resolution Spectroscopy of Stratospheric Ethane Following the Jupiter Impact of 2009

We report on high-resolution infrared spectroscopy of ethane (C2H6) performed at the latitude of an impact site on Jupiter discovered on 19 July 2009 by A. Wesley from a location in Murrumbateman, Australia. The observations used the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Heterodyne Instrument for Planetary Wind and Composition (HIPWAC) at the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) on Mauna Kea, Hawaii. HIPWAC is a mid-infrared (9-12 microns) heterodyne spectrometer operating at the highest limit of spectral resolving power (lambda\Delta\lambda > l06), providing information on atmospheric constituent abundance and temperature through fully resolved tine shapes. Ethane is a stable trace product of methane photochemistry that is nearly uniformly mixed in Jupiter's stratosphere, providing an effective probe of that altitude region. Ethane emission line profiles near 11,74 microns in the Ug band were measured in Jupiter's stratosphere at 25 MHz (11.00083/cm) resolution. A sequence of spectra of ethane acquired over a range of longitude at the impact latitude (56S planetocentric) probes constituent abundance and temperature profile, both on and off the impact region. Near the site of the impact, ethane emission increased above levels measured well outside the impact region. Radiative transfer analysis indicates increased ethane mole fraction (30% greater). Variation in the measured continuum level and line intensities within 75deg of the impact longitude indicate the presence of an opacity source (haze) at altitudes near and above the tropopause and as high as the 10-mbar level near the impact site. The indication of possible haze opacity up to the 10-mbar level in the atmosphere is consistent with measurements made by HIPWAC's predecessor as part of the IRTF Shoemaker Levy-9 campaign in 1994.

Fast, Kelly↗

NASA NTRS2012

Monitoring the Crab Nebula with LOFT

From 2008-2010, the Crab Nebula was found to decline by 7% in the 15-50 keV band, consistently in Fermi GBM, INTEGRAL IBIS, SPI, and JEMX, RXTE PCA, and Swift BAT. From 2001-2010, the 15-50 keV flux from the Crab Nebula typically varied by about 3.5% per year. Analysis of RXTE PCA data suggests possible spectral variations correlated with the flux variations. I will present estimates of the LOFT sensitivity to these variations. Prior to 2001 and since 2010, the observed flux variations have been much smaller. Monitoring the Crab with the LOFT WFM and LAD will provide precise measurements of flux variations in the Crab Nebula if it undergoes a similarly active episode.

Wilson-Hodge, Colleen A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Modeling of Commercial Turbofan Engine With Ice Crystal Ingestion: Follow-On

The occurrence of ice accretion within commercial high bypass aircraft turbine engines has been reported under certain atmospheric conditions. Engine anomalies have taken place at high altitudes that have been attributed to ice crystal ingestion, partially melting, and ice accretion on the compression system components. The result was degraded engine performance, and one or more of the following: loss of thrust control (roll back), compressor surge or stall, and flameout of the combustor. As ice crystals are ingested into the fan and low pressure compression system, the increase in air temperature causes a portion of the ice crystals to melt. It is hypothesized that this allows the ice-water mixture to cover the metal surfaces of the compressor stationary components which leads to ice accretion through evaporative cooling. Ice accretion causes a blockage which subsequently results in the deterioration in performance of the compressor and engine. The focus of this research is to apply an engine icing computational tool to simulate the flow through a turbofan engine and assess the risk of ice accretion. The tool is comprised of an engine system thermodynamic cycle code, a compressor flow analysis code, and an ice particle melt code that has the capability of determining the rate of sublimation, melting, and evaporation through the compressor flow path, without modeling the actual ice accretion. A commercial turbofan engine which has previously experienced icing events during operation in a high altitude ice crystal environment has been tested in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) altitude test facility at NASA Glenn Research Center. The PSL has the capability to produce a continuous ice cloud which is ingested by the engine during operation over a range of altitude conditions. The PSL test results confirmed that there was ice accretion in the engine due to ice crystal ingestion, at the same simulated altitude operating conditions as experienced previously in flight. The computational tool was utilized to help guide a portion of the PSL testing, and was used to predict ice accretion could also occur at significantly lower altitudes. The predictions were qualitatively verified by subsequent testing of the engine in the PSL. In a previous study, analysis of select PSL test data points helped to calibrate the engine icing computational tool to assess the risk of ice accretion. This current study is a continuation of that data analysis effort. The study focused on tracking the variations in wet bulb temperature and ice particle melt ratio through the engine core flow path. The results from this study have identified trends, while also identifying gaps in understanding as to how the local wet bulb temperature and melt ratio affects the risk of ice accretion and subsequent engine behavior.

Jorgenson, Philip C. E.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Modeling of Commercial Turbofan Engine with Ice Crystal Ingestion; Follow-On

The occurrence of ice accretion within commercial high bypass aircraft turbine engines has been reported under certain atmospheric conditions. Engine anomalies have taken place at high altitudes that have been attributed to ice crystal ingestion, partially melting, and ice accretion on the compression system components. The result was degraded engine performance, and one or more of the following: loss of thrust control (roll back), compressor surge or stall, and flameout of the combustor. As ice crystals are ingested into the fan and low pressure compression system, the increase in air temperature causes a portion of the ice crystals to melt. It is hypothesized that this allows the ice-water mixture to cover the metal surfaces of the compressor stationary components which leads to ice accretion through evaporative cooling. Ice accretion causes a blockage which subsequently results in the deterioration in performance of the compressor and engine. The focus of this research is to apply an engine icing computational tool to simulate the flow through a turbofan engine and assess the risk of ice accretion. The tool is comprised of an engine system thermodynamic cycle code, a compressor flow analysis code, and an ice particle melt code that has the capability of determining the rate of sublimation, melting, and evaporation through the compressor flow path, without modeling the actual ice accretion. A commercial turbofan engine which has previously experienced icing events during operation in a high altitude ice crystal environment has been tested in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) altitude test facility at NASA Glenn Research Center. The PSL has the capability to produce a continuous ice cloud which is ingested by the engine during operation over a range of altitude conditions. The PSL test results confirmed that there was ice accretion in the engine due to ice crystal ingestion, at the same simulated altitude operating conditions as experienced previously in flight. The computational tool was utilized to help guide a portion of the PSL testing, and was used to predict ice accretion could also occur at significantly lower altitudes. The predictions were qualitatively verified by subsequent testing of the engine in the PSL. In a previous study, analysis of select PSL test data points helped to calibrate the engine icing computational tool to assess the risk of ice accretion. This current study is a continuation of that data analysis effort. The study focused on tracking the variations in wet bulb temperature and ice particle melt ratio through the engine core flow path. The results from this study have identified trends, while also identifying gaps in understanding as to how the local wet bulb temperature and melt ratio affects the risk of ice accretion and subsequent engine behavior.

Jorgenson, Philip C. E.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Pluto's Global Surface Composition Through Pixel-by-Pixel Hapke Modeling of New Horizons Ralph LEISA Data

On July 14th 2015, NASA's New Horizons mission gave us an unprecedented detailed view of the Pluto system. The complex compositional diversity of Pluto's encounter hemisphere was revealed by the Ralph/LEISA infrared spectrometer on board of New Horizons. We present compositional maps of Pluto defining the spatial distribution of the abundance and textural properties of the volatiles methane and nitrogen ices and non-volatiles water ice and tholin. These results are obtained by applying a pixel-by-pixel Hapke radiative transfer model to the LEISA scans. Our analysis focuses mainly on the large scale latitudinal variations of methane and nitrogen ices and aims at setting observational constraints to volatile transport models. Specifically, we find three latitudinal bands: the first, enriched in methane, extends from the pole to 55degN, the second dominated by nitrogen, continues south to 35 degN, and the third, com- posed again mainly of methane, reaches 20 degN. We demonstrate that the distribution of volatiles across these surface units can be explained by differences in insolation over the past few decades. The latitudinal pattern is broken by Sputnik Planitia, a large reservoir of volatiles, with nitrogen playing the most important role. The physical properties of methane and nitrogen in this region are suggestive of the presence of a cold trap or possible volatile stratification. Furthermore our modeling results point to a possible sublimation transport of nitrogen from the northwest edge of Sputnik Planitia toward the south.

Protopapa, S.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Snow Process Estimation Over the Extratropical Andes Using a Data Assimilation Framework Integrating MERRA Data and Landsat Imagery

A data assimilation framework was implemented with the objective of obtaining high resolution retrospective snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates over several Andean study basins. The framework integrates Landsat fractional snow covered area (fSCA) images, a land surface and snow depletion model, and the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis as a forcing data set. The outputs are SWE and fSCA fields (1985-2015) at a resolution of 90 m that are consistent with the observed depletion record. Verification using in-situ snow surveys showed significant improvements in the accuracy of the SWE estimates relative to forward model estimates, with increases in correlation (0.49-0.87) and reductions in root mean square error (0.316 m to 0.129 m) and mean error (-0.221 m to 0.009 m). A sensitivity analysis showed that the framework is robust to variations in physiography, fSCA data availability and a priori precipitation biases. Results from the application to the headwater basin of the Aconcagua River showed how the forward model versus the fSCA-conditioned estimate resulted in different quantifications of the relationship between runoff and SWE, and different correlation patterns between pixel-wise SWE and ENSO. The illustrative results confirm the influence that ENSO has on snow accumulation for Andean basins draining into the Pacific, with ENSO explaining approximately 25% of the variability in near-peak (1 September) SWE values. Our results show how the assimilation of fSCA data results in a significant improvement upon MERRA-forced modeled SWE estimates, further increasing the utility of the MERRA data for high-resolution snow modeling applications.

SWE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Direct Shear Stress Sensor Characterization in the NASA 13” Flow Facility

This paper describes the testing of a commercially available shear stress sensor with emphasis on an examination of the output data and how variations in the output characteristics impacted the data analysis. The sensor itself is 0.625” in diameter with a length of 2” with a 0.375” diameter floating element and the sensor and housing constructed of stainless steel and aluminum. Shear stress was measured/calculated real time and compared to the output of the shear stress sensor. The range of testing was up to 15 Pa compared to the maximum calibrated range of 300 Pa for the sensor. The resultant sensitives of this device are within the expected range.

Shear Stress↗

NASA NTRS2021

Asymmetry in Subseasonal Surface Air Temperature Forecast Error with Respect to Soil Moisture Initialization

Soil moisture (W) helps control evapotranspiration (ET), and ET variations can in turn have a distinct impact on 2-m air temperature (T2M), given that increases in evaporative cooling encourage reduced temperatures. Soil moisture is accordingly linked to T2M, and realistic soil moisture initialization has, in previous studies, been shown to improve the skill of subseasonal T2M forecasts. The relationship between soil moisture and evapotranspiration, however, is distinctly nonlinear, with ET tending to increase with soil moisture in drier conditions and to be insensitive to soil moisture variations in wetter conditions. Here, through an extensive analysis of subseasonal forecasts produced with a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system, this nonlinearity is shown to imprint itself on T2M forecast error in the conterminous United States in two unique ways: (i) the T2M forecast bias (relative to independent observations) induced by a negative precipitation bias tends to be larger for dry initializations, and (ii) on average, the unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE) tends to be larger for dry initializations. Such findings can aid in the identification of forecasts of opportunity; taken a step further, they suggest a pathway for improving bias correction and uncertainty estimation in subseasonal T2M forecasts by conditioning each on initial soil moisture state.

Air Temperature↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

T2M Forecasts at Subseasonal Leads: Do Different Soil Moisture Initial States Have Different Impacts?

Soil moisture (W) helps control evapotranspiration (ET), and ET variations can in turn have a distinct impact on 2-m air temperature (T2M), given that increases in evaporative cooling encourage reduced temperatures. Soil moisture is accordingly linked to T2M, and realistic soil moisture initialization has, in previous studies, been shown to improve the skill of subseasonal T2M forecasts. The relationship between soil moisture and evapotranspiration, however, is distinctly nonlinear, with ET tending to increase with soil moisture in drier conditions and to be insensitive to soil moisture variations in wetter conditions. Here, through an extensive analysis of subseasonal forecasts produced with a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system, this nonlinearity is shown to imprint itself on T2M forecast error in the conterminous United States in two unique ways: (i) the T2M forecast bias (relative to independent observations) induced by a negative precipitation bias tends to be larger for dry initializations, and (ii) on average, the unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE) tends to be larger for dry initializations. Such findings can aid in the identification of forecasts of opportunity; taken a step further, they suggest a pathway for improving bias correction and uncertainty estimation in subseasonal T2M forecasts by conditioning each on initial soil moisture state.

2-meter Temperature↗

NASA NTRS2002

Physical and statistical modeling of Saturn's troposphere

We analyze the 5.2-pm spectra of Saturn by utilizing two independent methods: (a) physical models based on the relevant atmospheric parameters and (b) statistical analysis, based on principal components analysis (PCA), to determine the influence of the variation of phosphine and the opacity of clouds deep within Saturn's atmosphere to understand the dynamics in its atmosphere.

Saturn↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Use of three-cornered hat error estimates in MERRA-2 to guide an improved reanalysis-Part 1

The three-cornered hat (3CH) method estimates the uncertainties of three different co-located model or observational data sets (Anthes and Rieckh, 2018; Sjoberg et al., 2021). Rieckh et al. (2021) used the 3CH method to compare the random error statistics of different global forecast and reanalysis models, as well as radio occultation (RO) and radiosonde observations. That study showed that the MERRA-2 reanalysis, while having smaller errors in the stratosphere than its predecessor MERRA, had larger errors in the troposphere than many of the other data sets analyzed. The MERRA-2 errors were particularly large in the tropics. In a collaborative effort between UCAR’s COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Meteorology) program and NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), we carried out further 3CH error diagnostics to help isolate the causes of these larger errors and help guide the development of an improved reanalysis. This presentation summarizes random error statistics associated with MERRA-2, ECMWF’s ERA5 reanalysis, and COSMIC-2 (C2) RO observations. We compute 3CH error variance estimates of refractivity, as well as temperature and specific humidity using UCAR’s COSMIC Data Analysis and Archive Center (CDAAC) improved 1D-variational (1D-Var) retrieval (wetPf2) over 15 latitude bands from 45S to 45N. The 1D-Var retrievals of specific humidity and temperature for C2 use NCEP’s Global Forecast System (GFS) as the background. Anthes et al. (2021) showed that it gives accurate estimates of temperature and specific humidity in the tropics and subtropics, even in the challenging environment of intense Hurricane Dorian (2019). This presentation confirms the previous results that MERRA-2 has significantly larger errors in the tropics and subtropics than either C2 or ERA5. Its errors are larger between 30S and 30N compared to 30-45 N-S latitudes, and are also larger over land compared to oceans. Most of the MERRA-2 refractivity errors come from specific humidity, except over land below 3 km where temperature errors are large. These results suggest that moist convection and atmospheric boundary layer physics in MERRA-2 may be responsible for a significant part of the higher uncertainties. These results are being used to guide GMAO in developing an improved next-generation reanalysis, as shown in a companion presentation submitted to this conference (El Akkraoui et al., 2021), which extends this study and describes improvements to MERRA-2 leading to the next GMAO reanalysis.

Jeremiah Sjoberg↗

DOE OSTI2023

Energy transport analysis of NSTX plasmas with the TGLF turbulent and NEO neoclassical transport models

This work presents a study of plasma transport at low aspect ratio on the National Spherical Torus Experiment tokamak, where the turbulent and neoclassical energy fluxes calculated by the quasilinear Trapped Gyro Landau Fluid (TGLF) model and the multi species drift-kinetic Neoclassical solver (NEO) are validated against experimental data. The turbulent energy transport of two plasma discharges, one in the L-mode confinement regime and another in the H-mode regime, is dominated by electrostatic drift-wave instabilities, while the ion heat transport has a significant neoclassical contribution. The data analysis workflow is described in detail to understand how the variations of mapping and fitting of experimental data affect the power balance solution and subsequent flux-matching plasma profile predictions with the TGYRO solver. On average, the predicted plasma profiles are consistent with experimental data. However, the solutions are sensitive to various input parameters, including boundary conditions, and the electron-ion coupling. Linear gyrokinetic stability analysis demonstrates close agreement of the real frequencies of unstable modes between TGLF and CGYRO gyrokinetic simulations, but higher growth rates are predicted by TGLF, especially for the H-mode case. Estimates of the low-k modes' contributions to the total flux are consistent with linear stability analysis and the E × B suppression of turbulence in TGLF simulations with the SAT1 saturation model, while the SAT2 saturation model over-predicts the low-k modes' contribution in the H-mode case. Moreover, the results with SAT1 model are consistent with power balance analysis, which indicates only neoclassical ion energy fluxes inside ρ < 0.4 in the L-mode case and $\rho \unicode{x2A7D} 0.7$ in the H-mode case. The presence of multi-scale turbulence and ion-scale driven zonal flow mixing effects are also observed in TGLF scans of the electron turbulent heat flux over a range of temperature gradients and the electron-ion temperature ratio, which could explain the strong model sensitivity to variations of input parameters.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1993

A study of the threshold method utilizing raingage data

The threshold method for estimation of area-average rain rate relies on determination of the fractional area where rain rate exceeds a preset level of intensity. Previous studies have shown that the optimal threshold level depends on the climatological rain-rate distribution (RRD). It has also been noted, however, that the climatological RRD may be composed of an aggregate of distributions, one for each of several distinctly different synoptic conditions, each having its own optimal threshold. In this study, the impact of RRD variations on the threshold method is shown in an analysis of 1-min rainrate data from a network of tipping-bucket gauges in Darwin, Australia. Data are analyzed for two distinct regimes: the premonsoon environment, having isolated intense thunderstorms, and the active monsoon rains, having organized convective cell clusters that generate large areas of stratiform rain. It is found that a threshold of 10 mm/h results in the same threshold coefficient for both regimes, suggesting an alternative definition of optimal threshold as that which is least sensitive to distribution variations. The observed behavior of the threshold coefficient is well simulated by assumption of lognormal distributions with different scale parameters and same shape parameters.

Short, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Line profile variations in M giants - Clues to mass-loss and chromospheric heating mechanisms

Analysis is presented of time-series, high dispersion spectra of the Mg II, k, Ca II H, and K lines of the semiregular giants Rho Per (M4 II-III, periodicity of about 50 days), R Lyr (M5 III, period of about 46 days), and g Her (M6 III, period of about 90 days). The fine error sensor on the IUE satellite and ground based UBV photometry was used to relate line profile variations to photospheric variations. The above mentioned stars were selected to study the relative importance of convective motions and global stellar pulsations in determining the structure of the outer atmospheres. Small amplitude changes, but substantial changes in the profiles of Mg II and Ca II lines were detected. It is contended that the observed variability is due to changes in chromospheric conditions and not variations within the circumstellar shell. The picture of a steady state chromosphere, which is modulated on long time scales, is corroborated by these observations. Localized heating is found in g Her.

Judge, P. G.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Three-dimensional imaging of grain boundaries via quantitative fluorescence X-ray tomography analysis

Abstract Three-dimensional visualization of material composition within multiple grains and across complex networks of grain boundaries at nanoscales can provide new insight into the structure evolution and emerging functional properties of the material for diverse applications. Here, using nanoscale scanning X-ray fluorescence tomography, coupled with an advanced self-absorption correction algorithm developed in this work, we analyze the three-dimensional gain distributions and compositions in a Ce 0.8 Gd 0.2 O 2-δ -CoFe 2 O 4 mixed ionic-electronic conductor system with high accuracy and statistical significance. Our systematic investigation reveals an additional emergent phase and uncovers highly intriguing composition stability ranges for the multiple material phases within this system. The presented visualization of composition variations across complex interfaces, supported by our quantitative composition analysis, discloses mechanistic pathways of the diverse phase transformations occurring in the material synthesis, providing insights for the optimization of transport properties in the mixed ionic-electronic conductor system.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of uncertain feedstock quality on the economic feasibility of fast pyrolysis biorefineries with blended feedstocks and decentralized preprocessing sites in the Southeastern United States

Abstract This study performs techno‐economic analysis and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) to explore the effects that variations in biomass feedstock quality have on the economic feasibility of fast pyrolysis biorefineries using decentralized preprocessing sites (i.e., depots that produce pellets). Two biomass resources in the Southeastern United States, that is, pine residues and switchgrass, were examined as feedstocks. A scenario analysis was conducted for an array of different combinations, including different pellet ash control levels, feedstock blending ratios, different biorefinery capacities, and different biorefinery on‐stream capacities, followed by a comparison with the traditional centralized system. MCS results show that, with depot preprocessing, variations in the feedstock moisture and feedstock ash content can be significantly reduced compared with a traditional centralized system. For a biorefinery operating at 100% of its designed capacity, the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of the decentralized system is $3.97–$4.39 per gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE) based on the mean value across all scenarios, whereas the mean MFSP for the traditional centralized system was $3.79–$4.12/GGE. To understand the potential benefits of highly flowable pellets in decreasing biorefinery downtime due to feedstock handling and plugging problems, this study also compares the MFSP of the decentralized system at 90% of its designed capacity with a traditional system at 80%. The analysis illustrates that using low ash pellets mixed with switchgrass and pine residues generates a more competitive MFSP. Specifically, for a biorefinery designed for 2,000 oven dry metric ton per day, running a blended pellet made from 75% switchgrass and 25% pine residues with 2% ash level, and operating at 90% of designed capacity could make an MFSP between $4.49 and $4.71/GGE. In contrast, a traditional centralized biorefinery operating at 80% of designed capacity marks an MFSP between $4.72 and $5.28.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗