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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

From Individuals to Epidemics

Heterogeneous mixing fundamentally changes the dynamics of infectious diseases; finding ways to incorporate it into models represents a critical challenge. Phenomenological approaches are deficient in their lack of attention to underlying processes; individual-based models, on the other hand, may obscure the essential interactions in a sea of detail. The challenge then is to find ways to bridge these levels of description, starting from individual-based models and deriving macroscopic descriptions from them that retain essential detail, and filter out the rest. In this paper, attempts to achieve this transformation are described for a class of models where non-random mixing arises from the spatial localization of interactions. In general, the epidemic threshold is found to be larger owing to spatial localization than for a homogeneous mixing population. An improved estimate of the dynamics is developed by the use of moment equations, and a simple estimate of the threshold in terms of a 'dyad heuristic'. For more general models in which local infection is not described by mass action, the connection with related partial differential equations is investigated.

Levin, Simon A.↗

Sensor-Based Collision Avoidance: Theory and Experiments

A new on-line control strategy for sensor-based collision avoidance of manipulators and supporting experimental results are presented in this article. This control strategy is based on nullification of virtual forces applied to the end-effector by a hypothetical spring-plus-damper attached to the object's surface. In the proposed approach, the real-time arm control software continuously monitors the object distance measured by the arm-mounted proximity sensors. When this distance is less than a preset threshold, the collision avoidance control action is initiated to inhibit motion toward the object and thus prevent collision. This is accomplished by employing an outer feedback loop to perturb the end-effector nominal motion trajectory in real-time based on the sensory data. The perturbation is generated by a proportional-plus-integral (PI) collision avoidance controller acting on the difference between the sensed distance and the preset threshold. This approach is computationally very fast, requires minimal modification to the existing manipulator positioning system, and provides the manipulator with an on-line collision avoidance capability to react autonomously and intelligently. A dexterous RRC robotic arm is instrumented with infrared proximity sensors and is operated under the proposed collision avoidance strategy. Experimental results are presented to demonstrate end-effector collision avoidance both with an approaching object and while reaching inside a constricted opening.

Seraji, Homayoun↗

Attitude Estimation Signal Processing: A First Report on Possible Algorithms and Their Utility

In this brief effort, time has been of the essence. The data had to be acquired from APL/Lincoln Labs, stored, and sorted out to obtain the pertinent streams. This has been a significant part of this effort and hardware and software problems have been addressed with the appropriate solutions to accomplish this part of the task. Passed this, some basic and important algorithms are utilized to improve the performance of the attitude estimation systems. These algorithms are an essential part of the signal processing for the attitude estimation problem as they are utilized to reduce the amount of the additive/multiplicative noise that in general may or may not change its structure and probability density function, pdf, in time. These algorithms are not currently utilized in the processing of the data, at least, we are not aware of their use in this attitude estimation problem. Some of these algorithms, like the variable thresholding, are new conjectures, but one would expect that someone somewhere must have utilized this kind of scheme before. The variable thresholding idea is a straightforward scheme to use in case of a slowly varying pdf, or statistical moments of the unwanted random process. The algorithms here are kept simple but yet effective for processing the data and removing the unwanted noise. For the most part, these algorithms can be arranged so that their consecutive and orderly execution would complement the preceding algorithm and improve the overall performance of the signal processing chain.

Riasati, Vahid R.↗

A TRMM Rainfall Estimation Method Applicable to Land Areas

Utilizing multi-spectral, dual-polarization Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) radiometer measurements, we have developed in this study a method to retrieve average rain rate, R(sub f(sub R)), in a mesoscale grid box of 2deg x 3deg over land. The key parameter of this method is the fractional rain area, f(sub R), in that grid box, which is determined with the help of a threshold on the 85 GHz scattering depression 0 deduced from the SSM/I data. In order to demonstrate the usefulness of this method, nine-months of R(sub f(sub R))are retrieved from SSM/I data over three grid boxes in the Northeastern United States. These retrievals are then compared with the corresponding ground-truth-average rain rate, R(sub g), deduced from 15-minute rain gauges. Based on nine months of rain rate retrievals over three grid boxes, we find that R(sub f(sub R)can explain about 64 % of the variance contained in R(sub g). A similar evaluation of the grid-box-average rain rates R(sub GSCAT) and R(sub SRL), given by the NASA/GSCAT and NOAA/SRL rain retrieval algorithms, is performed. This evaluation reveals that R(sub GSCAT) and R(sub SRL) can explain only about 42 % of the variance contained in R(sub g). In our method, a threshold on the 85 GHz scattering depression is used primarily to determine the fractional rain area in a mesoscale grid box. Quantitative information pertaining to the 85 GHz scattering depression in the grid box is disregarded. In the NASA/GSCAT and NOAA/SRL methods on the other hand, this quantitative information is included. Based on the performance of all three methods, we infer that the magnitude of the scattering depression is a poor indicator of rain rate. Furthermore, from maps based on the observations made by SSM/I on land and ocean we find that there is a significant redundancy in the information content of the SSM/I multi-spectral observations. This leads us to infer that observations of SSM/I at 19 and 37 GHz add only marginal information to that given by 85 GHz scattering depression. As with other methods, the area-average rain retrieval method developed in this study needs tuning with radar and/or rain gauge observations. In the TRMM mission, the microwave radiometer rain retrieval algorithm can be tuned with TRMM radar observations. Since the radiometer has about 3.5 times wider spatial coverage compared to the radar in the TRMM mission, such an algorithm can be useful to extend geographically the rain information provided by the TRMM Precipitation Radar.

Prabhakara, C.↗

Prediction Based Design of Fire Detection for Buildings with Ceiling Heights between 9m and 18m

The purpose of this paper is to provide the experimental and theoretical background necessary to extend guidelines to ceiling heights between 9 m and 18 m. Based on the results of experiments conducted in 15 m and 22 m high hangars, detector activation thresholds and detector spacing are analyzed for both smoke and heat detectors. Only ceiling mounted detection devices are analyzed in this paper. In addition to the detector threshold study, the predictive capabilities of computer fire model simulations were compared with experimental results. This comparison, which is based on 12 fire tests, resulted in the development of a new ceiling jet algorithm to model phenomena which had not been included in previous algorithms. The improved algorithm provides a better representation of the development of the ceiling jet temperature to a growing hot layer and a better estimation of plume centerline temperature. Guidelines are examined, based on the experimental results, for fire detector spacing, placement, and sensitivity. Recommendations concerning the use of computer fire models at these heights are made as a function of fire size and hot layer development. The role of draft curtains is discussed and their impact on detector activation is demonstrated.

Davis, W. D.↗

A Summary of Biases in the BATSE Burst Trigger

The BATSE threshold for triggering on a gamma-ray burst is generally expressed in units of peak flux between 50 and 300 keV averaged over 1024 milliseconds. The completeness of the sample is affected by several systematic and statistical affects. A study is currently underway to characterize two of these that have not yet been Included Abstract: in the BATSE trigger efficiency calculation. They are: 1) the effects of statistical fluctuations on the measurement of peak flux and, 2) the effect on the trigger threshold of "slow risers", In which some of the burst flux is Identified as background. Some other biases that have been identified are in fact Malmquist-type biases which relate to a volume limited, rather than peak flux limited, burst source distribution and which cannot be determined without knowledge of the burst luminosity distribution.

Meegan, Charles A↗

An Intercomparison Between Radar Reflectivity and the IR Cloud Classification Technique for the TOGA-COARE Area

Satellite infrared (IR) and visible (VIS) images from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere - Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA-COARE) experiment are investigated through the use of Clustering Analysis. The clusters are obtained from the values of IR and VIS counts and the local variance for both channels. The clustering procedure is based on the standardized histogram of each variable obtained from 179 pairs of images. A new approach to classify high clouds using only IR and the clustering technique is proposed. This method allows the separation of the enhanced convection in two main classes: convective tops, more closely related to the most active core of the storm, and convective systems, which produce regions of merged, thick anvil clouds. The resulting classification of different portions of cloudiness is compared to the radar reflectivity field for intensive events. Convective Systems and Convective Tops are followed during their life cycle using the IR clustering method. The areal coverage of precipitation and features related to convective and stratiform rain is obtained from the radar for each stage of the evolving Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). In order to compare the IR clustering method with a simple threshold technique, two IR thresholds (Tir) were used to identify different portions of cloudiness, Tir=240K which roughly defines the extent of all cloudiness associated with the MCS, and Tir=220K which indicates the presence of deep convection. It is shown that the IR clustering technique can be used as a simple alternative to identify the actual portion of convective and stratiform rainfall.

Carvalho, L. M. V.↗

Integrating Partial Polarization into a Metal-Ferroelectric-Semiconductor Field Effect Transistor Model

The ferroelectric channel in a Metal-Ferroelectric-Semiconductor Field Effect Transistor (MFSFET) can partially change its polarization when the gate voltage near the polarization threshold voltage. This causes the MFSFET Drain current to change with repeated pulses of the same gate voltage near the polarization threshold voltage. A previously developed model [11, based on the Fermi-Dirac function, assumed that for a given gate voltage and channel polarization, a sin-le Drain current value would be generated. A study has been done to characterize the effects of partial polarization on the Drain current of a MFSFET. These effects have been described mathematically and these equations have been incorporated into a more comprehensive mathematical model of the MFSFET. The model takes into account the hysteresis nature of the MFSFET and the time dependent decay as well as the effects of partial polarization. This model defines the Drain current based on calculating the degree of polarization from previous gate pulses, the present Gate voltage, and the amount of time since the last Gate volta-e pulse.

MacLeod, Todd C.↗

Finite Element Modeling of Magnetically-Damped Convection during Solidification

A fully 3-D, transient finite element model is developed to represent the magnetic damping effects on complex fluid flow, heat transfer and electromagnetic field distributions in a Sn- 35.5%Pb melt undergoing unidirectional solidification. The model is developed based on our in- house finite element code for the fluid flow, heat transfer and electromagnetic field calculations. The numerical model is tested against numerical and experimental results for water as reported in literature. Various numerical simulations are carried out for the melt convection and temperature distribution with and without the presence of a transverse magnetic field. Numerical results show that magnetic damping can be effectively applied to stabilize melt flow, reduce turbulence and flow levels in the melt and over a certain threshold value a higher magnetic field resulted in a greater reduction in velocity. Also, for the study of melt flow instability, a long enough running time is needed to ensure the final fluid flow recirculation pattern. Moreover, numerical results suggest that there seems to exist a threshold value of applied magnetic field, above which magnetic damping becomes possible and below which the 0 convection in the melt is actually enhanced.

deGroh, H. C.↗

Numerical Study of the Wave-Vector Dependence of the Electron Interband Impact Ionization Rate in Bulk GaAs

Ensemble Monte Carlo calculations of the electron interband impact ionization rate in bulk GaAs are presented using a wave-vector (k)-dependent formulation of the ionization transition rate. The transition rate is evaluated through use of numerically generated wavefunctions determined via a k-p calculation within the first two conduction bonds at numerous points within a finely spaced three-dimensional grid in k space. The transition rate is determined to be greatest for states within the second conduction band. It is found that the interband impact ionization transition rate in bulk GaAs is best characterized as having an exceedingly "soft" threshold energy. As a consequence, the dead space, defined as the distance over which the ionization probability for a given carrier is assumed to be zero, is estimated to be-much larger than that estimated using a "harder" threshold. These results have importance in the design of multiquantum-well avalanche photodiodes.

Wang, Yang↗

Incorporating TRMM and Other High-Quality Estimates into the One-Degree Daily (1DD) Global Precipitation Product

The One-Degree Daily (1DD) precipitation dataset was recently developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The IDD provides a globally-complete, observation-only estimate of precipitation on a daily 1 deg x 1 deg grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). In the latitude band 40 N - 40 S the IDD uses the Threshold-Matched Precipitation Index (TMPI), a GPI-like IR product with the T(sub b) threshold and (single) conditional rain rate determined locally for each month by the frequency of precipitation in the GPROF SSNU product and by the precipitation amount in the GPCP satellite-gauge (SG) combination. Outside 40 N - 40 S the 1DD uses a scaled TOVS precipitation estimate that has adjustments based on the TMPI and the SG. This first-generation 1DD has been in beta test preparatory to release as an official GPCP product. In this paper we discuss further development of the 1DD framework to allow the direct incorporation of TRMM and other high-quality precipitation estimates. First, these data are generally sparse (typically from low-orbit satellites), so a fair amount of work was devoted to data boundaries. Second, these data are not the same as the original 1DD estimates, so we had to give careful consideration to the best scheme for forcing the 1DD to sum to the SG for the month. Finally, the non-sun-synchronous, low-inclination orbit occupied by TRMM creates interesting variations against the sun-synchronous, high-inclination orbits occupied by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program satellites that carry the SSM/I. Examples will be given of each of the development issues, then comparisons will be made to daily raingauge analyses.

Huffman, George J.↗

Core Temperature Measurement During Submaximal Exercise: Esophageal, Rectal, and Intestinal Temperatures

The purpose of this study was to determine if intestinal temperature (Tin) might be in acceptable alternative to esophageal (Tes) and rectal temperature (Trec) to assess thermoregulation during supine exercise. We hypothesized that Tin would have values similar to Tes and a response time similar to Trec, but the rate of temperature change across time would not be different between measurement sites. Seven subjects completed a continuous supine protocol of 20 min of rest, 20 min of cycle exercise at 40% peak oxygen consumption (VO2pk), 20 min of cycle exercise at 65% V02pk, and 20 min of recovery. Tes, Trec, and Tin were recorded each min throughout the test. Temperatures were not different after 20 min of rest, but Trec was less than the Tes and Tin at the end of the 40% and 65% VO2pk stages. After 20 min of recovery, Tes was less than either Trec or Tin, which were not different from each other. Time to threshold for increased temperature from rest was greater for Trec than Tes but not different from Tin. Time to reach peak temperature was greater for Tin and Trec than Tes. Similarly, time to a decrease in temperature after exercise was greater for Trec than Tes, but not different from Tin. The rate of temperature change from threshold to the end of the 40% VO2pk stage was not different between measurement sites. However, the rate of change during recovery was more negative for Tes than Tin and Trec, which were different from each other. Measurement of Tin may he an acceptable alternative to Tes and Trec with an understanding of its limitations.

Lee, Stuart M. C.↗

Ignition Resistance of Polymeric Materials to Particle Impact in High-Pressure Oxygen

Particle impact ignition has been the primary cause of numerous fires in oxygen systems. This ignition phenomenon is known to occur where particles are present in high-velocity gas, and where impact occurs on a flammable material. The particle impact ignition behavior of many metals has been widely studied, but the particle impact ignition behavior of polymeric materials is relatively unknown. Particle impact ignition in polymeric materials is a concern as these materials are commonly used in component seat and seal applications, where high-velocity particle impacts can occur. This study evaluates several polymeric materials and compares the minimum temperature required for ignition (threshold temperature) of these materials: Kel-F 81 (CTFE), Teflon (PTFE), PEEK, Vespel SP-21, and Nylon 6/6. The materials were configured as targets in the White Sands Test Facility high-velocity particle impact test system. Gaseous oxygen was flowed at 4000 psi and sonic velocity, and the targets were impacted with 2000-micron aluminum 2017 particles. This paper discusses the results of these tests and ranks the materials according to their threshold temperatures at these conditions.

Forsyth, Elliot T.↗

Sensitive Procedures for Determining the Permeation Resistance of Chlorinated Polyethylene Against Liquid Propellants

The permeation resistance of chlorinated polyethylene (CPE) used in totally encapsulating chemical protective suits against the aerospace fuels hydrazine, monomethylhydrazine, and uns-dimethylhydrazine was determined by measuring the breakthrough time (BT) and time-averaged vapor transmission rate (VTR) using procedures consistent with ASTM F 739 and ASTM F 1383. Two exposure scenarios were simulated: a 2 hour (h) fuel vapor exposure, and a liquid fuel "splash" followed by a 2 h vapor exposure. To simulate internal suit pressure during operation, a positive differential pressure of 0.3 in. water (75 Pa) on the collection side of the permeation apparatus was used. Using the available data, a model was developed to estimate propellant concentrations inside an air-line fed, totally encapsulating chemical protective suit. Concentrations were calculated under simulated conditions of fixed vapor transmission rate, variable breathing air flow rate, and variable splash exposure area. Calculations showed that the maximum allowable permeation rates of hydrazine fuels through CPE were of the order of 0.05 to 0.08 ng/sq cm min for encapsulating suits with low breathing air flow rates (of the order of 5 scfm or 140 L min-1). Above these permeation rates, the 10 parts-per-billion (ppb) threshold limit value time-weighted average could be exceeded. To evaluate suit performance at 10 ppb threshold-limiting value/time-weighted average level concentrations, use of a sensitive analytical method such as cation exchange high performance liquid chromatography with amperometric detection was found to be essential. The analytical detection limit determines the lowest measurable VTR, which in turn governed the lowest per meant concentration that could be calculated inside the totally encapsulating chemical protective suit.

Waller, Jess M.↗

Access Accommodation Study

A new mission payload concept for the International Space Station (ISS) called ACCESS (Advanced Cosmic-ray Composition Experiment for Space Station) has undergone a preliminary study which is now complete, and its results are published here. The mission holds the promise for answering many of the outstanding astrophysical questions associated with Galactic cosmic rays and their role in our Galaxy. ACCESS science goals include measurement of the rare ultra-high energy and ultra-heavy components of cosmic radiation which have not been analyzed previously above the Earth's atmosphere. The critical resource made available by the ISS is collection factor (area x exposure time), as much as 10,000 square meters-sr-days for a four-year stay on-orbit. This will allow ACCESS to go beyond balloon-borne detectors and take the science of cosmic-ray observation to the threshold of space. The ACCESS instrument, consisting of a charge module, a transition radiation detector, and a calorimeter, should make valuable measurements of nuclei throughout the periodic table up to 1015 eV. The concept, options, mission plan, and accommodation issues for such an ISS payload are summarized. This includes the carrier, ISS Site, mass, thermal control, power, data and operations. The study demonstrates that the ISS, as a stable science platform at the threshold of space, makes improved cosmic-ray ACCESS possible at the turn of the century.

Wilson, Thomas L.↗

Autonomous Navigation Improvements for High-Earth Orbiters Using GPS

The Goddard Space Flight Center is currently developing autonomous navigation systems for satellites in high-Earth orbits where acquisition of the GPS signals is severely limited This paper discusses autonomous navigation improvements for high-Earth orbiters and assesses projected navigation performance for these satellites using Global Positioning System (GPS) Standard Positioning Service (SPS) measurements. Navigation performance is evaluated as a function of signal acquisition threshold, measurement errors, and dynamic modeling errors using realistic GPS signal strength and user antenna models. These analyses indicate that an autonomous navigation position accuracy of better than 30 meters root-mean-square (RMS) can be achieved for high-Earth orbiting satellites using a GPS receiver with a very stable oscillator. This accuracy improves to better than 15 meters RMS if the GPS receiver's signal acquisition threshold can be reduced by 5 dB-Hertz to track weaker signals.

Long, Anne↗

Evaluation of Contaminant-Promoted Ignition in Scuba Equipment and Breathing Gas Delivery Systems

As the underwater diving industry continues to use greater concentrations of oxygen in their scuba systems, ignition of contaminants in these systems becomes a greater concern. Breathing gas makeup and distribution systems typically combine pure oxygen with various diluents to supply high-pressure cylinders for scuba applications. The hazards associated with these applications of oxygen and NITROX (oxygen and nitrogen mixture) gases require an evaluation of inherent contaminant levels and their associated promoted-ignition thresholds in these environments. In this study, several scuba component assemblies were tested after one year of use at the NASA Johnson Space Center Neutral Buoyancy Lab. The components were rapidly impacted with 50% NITROX gas to demonstrate their ignition resistance, then disassembled to evaluate their cleanliness. A follow-up study was then performed on the ignition thresholds of hydrocarbon-bascd oil films in oxygen and NITROX environments in an attempt to define the cleaning requirements for these systems. Stainless steel tubes were contaminated and verified to known levels and placed in a pneumatic impact test system where they were rapidly pressurized with the test gas. Ignitions were determined using a photodiode connected to the end of the contaminated tube. The results of the scuba component tests, cleanliness evaluation, and contaminant ignition study are discussed and compared for 50% NITROX and 100% oxygen environments.

Forsyth, Elliott T.↗

Aircraft Conflict Analysis and Real-Time Conflict Probing Using Probabilistic Trajectory Modeling

Methods for maintaining separation between aircraft in the current airspace system have been built from a foundation of structured routes and evolved procedures. However, as the airspace becomes more congested and the chance of failures or operational error become more problematic, automated conflict alerting systems have been proposed to help provide decision support and to serve as traffic monitoring aids. The problem of conflict detection and resolution has been tackled from a number of different ways, but in this thesis, it is recast as a problem of prediction in the presence of uncertainties. Much of the focus is concentrated on the errors and uncertainties from the working trajectory model used to estimate future aircraft positions. The more accurate the prediction, the more likely an ideal (no false alarms, no missed detections) alerting system can be designed. Additional insights into the problem were brought forth by a review of current operational and developmental approaches found in the literature. An iterative, trial and error approach to threshold design was identified. When examined from a probabilistic perspective, the threshold parameters were found to be a surrogate to probabilistic performance measures. To overcome the limitations in the current iterative design method, a new direct approach is presented where the performance measures are directly computed and used to perform the alerting decisions. The methodology is shown to handle complex encounter situations (3-D, multi-aircraft, multi-intent, with uncertainties) with relative ease. Utilizing a Monte Carlo approach, a method was devised to perform the probabilistic computations in near realtime. Not only does this greatly increase the method's potential as an analytical tool, but it also opens up the possibility for use as a real-time conflict alerting probe. A prototype alerting logic was developed and has been utilized in several NASA Ames Research Center experimental studies.

Yang, Lee C.↗