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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

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DOE OSTI2020

The Statistics of Extended Debris Disks Measured with Gaia and Planck

Thermal emission from debris disks around stars has been measured using targeted and resolved observations. We present an alternative likelihood-based approach in which temperature maps from the Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) survey at 857 and 545 GHz are analyzed in conjunction with stellar positions from Gaia to estimate the fraction of stars hosting disks and the thermal emission from the disks. The debris disks are not resolved (or even necessarily detected individually), but their statistical properties and the correlations with stellar properties are measured for several thousand stars. We compare our findings with higher sensitivity surveys of smaller samples of stars. For dimmer stars, in particular K and M dwarfs, we find that about 10% of stars within 80 pc have emission consistent with debris disks. We also report on 80 candidate disks, the majority of which are not previously identified. We have previously constrained the properties of Exo-Oort clouds using Planck data—with future CMB surveys, both components can be measured for different stellar types, providing a new avenue to study the outer parts of planetary systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Statistics of Wide Pre-main-sequence Binaries in the Orion OB1 Association

Statistics of low-mass pre-main-sequence binaries in the Orion OB1 association with separations ranging from 0."6 to 20" (220 to 7400 au at 370 pc) are studied using images from the VISTA Orion mini survey and astrometry from Gaia. The input sample based on the CVSO catalog contains 1137 stars of K and M spectral types (masses between 0.3 and 0.9 M ⊙ ), 1021 of which are considered to be association members. There are 135 physical binary companions to these stars with mass ratios above ~0.13. The average companion fraction is 0.09 ± 0.01 over 1.2 decades in separation, slightly less than, but still consistent with, the field. We found a difference between the Ori OB1a and OB1b groups, the latter being richer in binaries by a factor of 1.6 ± 0.3. No overall dependence of the wide-binary frequency on the observed underlying stellar density is found, although in the Ori OB1a off-cloud population, these binaries seem to avoid dense clusters. The multiplicity rates in Ori OB1 and in sparse regions like Taurus differ significantly, hinting that binaries in the field may originate from a mixture of diverse populations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Hierarchical Modeling and Statistical Calibration for Photometric Redshifts

The cosmological exploitation of modern photometric galaxy surveys requires both accurate (unbiased) and precise (narrow) redshift probability distributions derived from broadband photometry. Existing methodologies do not meet these requirements. Standard template fitting delivers interpretable models and errors, but lacks the flexibility to learn inaccuracies in the observed photometry or spectral templates. Machine learning addresses those issues, but requires representative training data, and the resulting models and uncertainties cannot be interpreted in the context of a physical model or outside of the training data. We present a hierarchical modeling approach simultaneously addressing the issues of flexibility, interpretability, and generalization. It combines template fitting with flexible (machine-learning-like) models to correct the spectral templates, model their redshift distributions, and recalibrate the photometric observations. By optimizing the full posterior distribution of the model and solving for its (thousands of) parameters, one can perform a global statistical calibration of the data and the spectral energy distribution (SED) model. We apply this approach to the public Dark Energy Survey Science Verification data and show that it provides more accurate and compact redshift posterior distributions than existing methods, as well as insights into residual photometric and SED systematics. Here, the model is causal and makes predictions for future data (e.g., additional photometric bandpasses), and its internal parameters and components are interpretable. This approach does not formally require the training data to be complete or representative; in principle, it can even work in regimes in which few or no spectroscopic redshifts are available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Gravitational Microlensing Event Statistics for the Zwicky Transient Facility

Microlensing surveys have discovered thousands of events, with almost all events discovered within the Galactic bulge or toward the Magellanic Clouds. The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), while not designed to be a microlensing campaign, is an optical time-domain survey that observes the entire northern sky, including the Galactic plane, every few nights. The ZTF observes ~10 9 stars in the g and r bands and can significantly contribute to the observed microlensing population. In this paper, we predict that the ZTF will observe ~1100 microlensing events in 3 yr of observing within 10° latitude of the Galactic plane, with ~500 events in the outer Galaxy (ℓ ≥ 10°). This yield increases to ~1400 (~800) events by combining every three ZTF exposures, ~1800 (~900) events if the ZTF observes for a total of 5 yr, and ~2400 (~1300) events for a 5 yr survey with postprocessing image stacking. Using the microlensing modeling software PopSyCLE, we compare the microlensing populations in the Galactic bulge and the outer Galaxy. We also present an analysis of the microlensing event ZTF18abhxjmj to demonstrate how to leverage these population statistics in event modeling. The ZTF will constrain Galactic structure, stellar populations, and primordial black holes through photometric microlensing.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Statistical Treatise on Critical Biodiesel (B100) Quality Properties in the United States from 2004-2022

The quality of neat biodiesel (B100) is critical for ensuring biodiesel blends used in diesel-powered vehicles do not adversely impact engine performance. In the United States, B100 is required to meet ASTM International's purity and fuel property requirements in D6751, "Standard Specification for Biodiesel Fuel Blend Stock (B100) for Middle Distillate Fuels." Here we review the development of this standard for the different grades of B100. The BQ-9000 program, which currently covers over 90% of U.S. and Canadian production volumes, is also described. Engine and original equipment manufacturers have expressed a desire for credible, third-party data on values of various ASTM B100 properties in the commercial market to inform their efforts to address future emissions and durability requirements. To address this need, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory published data from analysis and testing of monthly samples from BQ-9000 producers from calendar years 2017-2022, resulting in 300-500 data points (i.e., individual fuel samples) per year. These data and a statistical evaluation of properties including the average, mean, standard deviation, and 95th or 5th percentile are presented. The results show very consistent and high-quality B100 produced in this time frame. Additionally, we review the results of earlier quality surveys conducted in the United States between 2004 and 2011, revealing how quality has changed over time in response to ASTM standard revisions, as well as the significant overall improvement in quality for modern biodiesel production.

ASTM standard↗

NASA NTRS1962

A STATISTICAL OPTIMIZING NAVIGATION PROCEDURE FOR SPACE FLIGHT

In a typical self-contained space navigation system, celestial observation data are gathered and processed to produce estimated velocity corrections. The results of this paper provide a basis for determining the best celestial measurements and the proper time s to implement velocity corrections. Fundamental to the navigation system is a procedure for processing celestial measurement data which permits incorporation of each individual measurement as it is made in order to provide an improved estimate of position and velocity. In order to "optimize" the navigation, a statistical evaluation of a number of alternative courses of action is made. The various alternatives, which form the basis of a decision process, concern the following: 1) which star and planet combination provides the "best" available observation; 2) whether the best observation gives a sufficient reduction in the predicted target error to warrant making the measurement; and 3) whether the uncertainty in the indicated velocity correction is a small enough percentage of the correction itself to justify an engine re-start and propellant expenditure. Numerical results are presented which illustrate the effectiveness of this approach to the space navigation problem.

NAVIGATION↗

NASA NTRS1962