Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “statistical model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Recombination smooths the time-signal disrupted by latency in within-host HIV phylogenies

Within-host HIV evolution involves several features that may disrupt standard phylogenetic reconstruction. One important feature is re-activation of latently integrated provirus, which has the potential to disrupt the temporal signal, leading to variation in the branch lengths and apparent evolutionary rates in a tree. Yet, real within-host HIV phylogenies tend to show clear, ladder-like trees structured by the time of sampling. Another important feature is recombination, which violates the fundamental assumption that evolutionary history can be represented by a single bifurcating tree. Thus, recombination complicates the within-host HIV dynamic by mixing genomes and creating evolutionary loop structures that cannot be represented in bifurcating trees. In this paper, we develop a coalescent-based simulator of within-host HIV evolution that includes latency, recombination, and effective population size dynamics that allows us to study the relationship between the true, complex genealogy of within-host HIV evolution, encoded as an Ancestral Recombination Graph (ARG), and the observed phylogenetic tree. To compare our ARG results to the familiar phylogeny format, we calculate the expected bifurcating tree after decomposing the ARG into all unique site trees, their combined distance matrix, and the overall corresponding bifurcating tree. While latency and recombination separately disrupt the phylogenetic signal, remarkably, we find that recombination recovers the temporal signal of within-host HIV evolution caused by latency by mixing fragments of old, latent genomes into the contemporary population. In effect, recombination averages over extant heterogeneity, whether it stems from mixed time-signals or population bottlenecks. Further, we establish that the signals of latency and recombination can be observed in phylogenetic trees despite being an incorrect representation of the true evolutionary history. Using an Approximate Bayesian Computation method, we develop a set of statistical probes to tune our simulation model to nine longitudinally-sampled within-host HIV phylogenies. Because ARGs are exceedingly difficult to infer from real HIV data, our simulation system allows investigating effects of latency, recombination, and population size bottlenecks by matching decomposed ARGs to real data as observed in standard phylogenies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Uncertainties In Neutron-Alpha Scattering With Chiral Nucleon-Nucleon And Three-Nucleon Forces

We report that modern ab initio theory combined with high-quality nucleon-nucleon (NN) and three-nucleon (3N) interactions from chiral effective field theory (EFT) can provide a predictive description of low-energy light-nuclei reactions relevant for astrophysics and fusion-energy applications. However, the high cost of computations has so far impeded a complete analysis of the uncertainty budget of such calculations. Starting from NN potentials up to fifth order (N 4 LO) combined with leading-order 3N forces, we study how the order-by-order convergence of the chiral expansion and confidence intervals for the 3N contact and contact-plus-one-pion-exchange low-energy constants (c E and c D ) contribute to the overall uncertainty budget of many-body calculations of neutron- 4 He (n-α) elastic scattering. We compute structure and reaction observables for three-, four-, and five-nucleon systems within the ab initio frameworks of the no-core shell model and no-core shell model with continuum. Using a small set of design runs, we construct a Gaussian process model (GPM) that acts as a statistical emulator for the theory. With this, we gain insight into how uncertainties in the 3N low-energy constants propagate throughout the calculation and determine the Bayesian posterior distribution of these parameters with Markov-Chain Monte Carlo. We find rapidly converging n-α phase shifts with respect to the chiral order. With the adopted leading-order 3N force, calculations based on the NN interaction at N 4 LO of Entem, Machleidt, and Nosyk are unable to reproduce the experimental phase shifts in the 3/2 - channel within the estimated chiral truncation errors. Closer agreement with empirical data is found when using an older parametrization of the NN interaction at order N 3 LO, and the position and width of the P-wave resonances can be used to reduce the uncertainty of the 3N low-energy constants. The present results point to a lack of spin-orbit strength when the newer parametrization of the chiral NN force up to fifth order is combined with the leading-order 3N force. The inclusion of higher-order 3N-force terms may be required to recover the missing strength. GPMs can act as fast and accurate emulators of ab initio many-body calculations of low-energy scattering and reactions of light nuclei, opening the way to a robust quantification of theoretical uncertainties grounded in the description of the underlying chiral Hamiltonian.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

BICEP/ Keck XII: Constraints on axionlike polarization oscillations in the cosmic microwave background

Here, we present a search for axionlike polarization oscillations in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) with observations from the Keck Array . A local axion field induces an all-sky, temporally sinusoidal rotation of CMB polarization. A CMB polarimeter can thus function as a direct-detection experiment for axionlike dark matter. We develop techniques to extract an oscillation signal. Many elements of the method are generic to CMB polarimetry experiments and can be adapted for other datasets. As a first demonstration, we process data from the 2012 observing season to set upper limits on the axion-photon coupling constant in the mass range 10 – 21 – 10 – 18 eV , which corresponds to oscillation periods on the order of hours to months. We find no statistically significant deviations from the background model. For periods larger than 24 hr (mass m < 4.8 × 10 – 20 eV ), the median 95% confidence upper limit is equivalent to a rotation amplitude of 0.68°, which constrains the axion-photon coupling constant to g Φ γ < ( 1.1 × 10 – 11 GeV – 1 ) m / ( 10 – 21 eV ) , if axionlike particles constitute all of the dark matter. The constraints can be improved substantially with data already collected by the BICEP series of experiments. Current and future CMB polarimetry experiments are expected to achieve sufficient sensitivity to rule out unexplored regions of the axion parameter space.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Confronting interacting dark radiation scenarios with cosmological data

Dark radiation (DR) is generally predicted in new physics scenarios that address fundamental puzzles of the Standard Model or tensions in the cosmological data. Cosmological data have the sensitivity to constrain not only the energy density of DR but also whether it is interacting. In this paper, we present a systematic study of five types of interacting DR (free-streaming, fluid, decoupling, instantaneous decoupling, and recoupling DR) and their impact on cosmological observables. We modify the Boltzmann hierarchy to describe all these types of interacting DR under the relaxation time approximation. We, for the first time, robustly calculate the collision terms for recoupling scalar DR and provide a better estimation of the recoupling transition redshift. We demonstrate the distinct features of each type of DR on the cosmic microwave background and matter power spectra. We perform Markov-chain Monte Carlo scans using the Planck 2018 data and baryon acoustic oscillation data. Assuming no new physics in the standard model neutrino sector, we find no statistically significant constraints on the couplings of DR, although there is a slight preference for the fluidlike limit of all the cases. In the case of instantaneous decoupling DR, this limit corresponds to a late transition redshift around recombination. Furthermore, the ΔN eff constraint varies marginally depending on the type of DR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Effect of the volume fraction gradient on the phase interaction force model for disperse two-phase flows

In this work, the effects of the particle volume fraction gradient on fluid-particle interactions are studied. The phase interaction force is decomposed into three terms. For the first term, namely the symmetrized force density, we present theoretical reasoning and numerical evidence to assume that it is independent of the particle volume fraction gradient. The second term is the particle volume fraction gradient times a newly introduced diffusion stress. The third term is the divergence of the particle-fluid-particle (PFP) stress. If this assumption of independence of the particle volume fraction gradient for the first term can be verified, to the first order of the ratio of the mean distance between particles to the macroscopic lengthscale, all three terms can be studied and modeled in flows with uniform particle distributions. Models thus obtained are applicable to statistically inhomogeneous flows, with the second and third terms accounting for statistical inhomogeneity. To verify this assumption, numerical simulations of flows passing fixed arrays of particles are performed. Both uniform and nonuniform particle volume fractions are studied and compared for disperse multiphase flows with the particle Reynolds numbers ranging from 1 to 100, and particle volume fraction ranging from 1% to 26% in statistically steady states. It is found that the symmetrized force (first) term can be well approximated by the drag force obtained from studies of uniform flows. The diffusion stress is positive along the flow direction and negative in the directions perpendicular to the flow. In the case of moving particles, this stress could potentially cause particle aggregation in the flow direction and dispersion in the directions perpendicular to the flow. Finally, the diffusion stress is only important when there is a volume fraction gradient, while the PFP stress can be important in inhomogeneous flows with either nonuniform particle concentrations or nonuniform average relative velocities between the phases.

42 ENGINEERING↗

β-Delayed One and Two Neutron Emission Probabilities Southeast of 132 Sn and the Odd-Even Systematics in r-Process Nuclide Abundances

Here, the β-delayed one- and two-neutron emission probabilities (P 1n and P 2n ) of 20 neutron-rich nuclei with N≥82 have been measured at the RIBF facility of the RIKEN Nishina Center. P 1n of 130,131 Ag, 133,134 Cd, 135,136 In, and 138,139 Sn were determined for the first time, and stringent upper limits were placed on P2n for nearly all cases. β-delayed two-neutron emission (β2n) was unambiguously identified in 133 Cd and 135,136 In, and their P 2n were measured. Weak β2n was also detected from 137,138 Sn. Our results highlight the effect of the N=82 and Z=50 shell closures on β-delayed neutron emission probability and provide stringent benchmarks for newly developed macroscopic-microscopic and self-consistent global models with the inclusion of a statistical treatment of neutron and γ emission. The impact of our measurements on r-process nucleosynthesis was studied in a neutron star merger scenario. Our P 1n and P 2n have a direct impact on the odd-even staggering of the final abundance, improving the agreement between calculated and observed Solar System abundances. The odd isotope fraction of Ba in r-process-enhanced (r-II) stars is also better reproduced using our new data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Identifying dominant environmental predictors of freshwater wetland methane fluxes across diurnal to seasonal time scales

While wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH 4 ) to the atmosphere, they represent a large source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget due to the complex biogeochemical controls on CH 4 dynamics. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first multi-site synthesis of how predictors of CH 4 fluxes (FCH4) in freshwater wetlands vary across wetland types at diel, multiday (synoptic), and seasonal time scales. In this work we used several statistical approaches (correlation analysis, generalized additive modeling, mutual information, and random forests) in a wavelet-based multi-resolution framework to assess the importance of environmental predictors, nonlinearities and lags on FCH4 across 23 eddy covariance sites. Seasonally, soil and air temperature were dominant predictors of FCH4 at sites with smaller seasonal variation in water table depth (WTD). In contrast, WTD was the dominant predictor for wetlands with smaller variations in temperature (e.g., seasonal tropical/subtropical wetlands). Changes in seasonal FCH4 lagged fluctuations in WTD by ~17 ± 11 days, and lagged air and soil temperature by median values of 8 ± 16 and 5 ± 15 days, respectively. Temperature and WTD were also dominant predictors at the multiday scale. Atmospheric pressure (PA) was another important multiday scale predictor for peat-dominated sites, with drops in PA coinciding with synchronous releases of CH 4 . At the diel scale, synchronous relationships with latent heat flux and vapor pressure deficit suggest that physical processes controlling evaporation and boundary layer mixing exert similar controls on CH 4 volatilization, and suggest the influence of pressurized ventilation in aerenchymatous vegetation. In addition, 1- to 4-h lagged relationships with ecosystem photosynthesis indicate recent carbon substrates, such as root exudates, may also control FCH4. By addressing issues of scale, asynchrony, and nonlinearity, this work improves understanding of the predictors and timing of wetland FCH4 that can inform future studies and models, and help constrain wetland CH 4 emissions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Code Release for “Unlocking Extreme Space Weather through Advanced Modeling of Legacy Vela Spacecraft” ER

The software being developed for this project has two mains aims. First, a Bayesian Model Calibration (BMC) procedure is being developed to calibrate a spallation model that simulates protons hitting a spacecraft orbiting earth to real data. The procedure will be developed for general data (there is no data release requested as part of this code release). Second, an inverse physics modeling task is being undertaken to map the number of resulting neutrons observed from this process to the expected number of protons that hit the model. This second task is of statistical interest; to publish on it, the code will need to be open source.

Murph, Alexander↗

Grid Reliability Statistics [SWR-25-45]

This codebase houses a suite of statistical and descriptive analyses of NERC GADS data of interest to grid modelers and planners. This repository is envisioned to house a collection of statistical and descriptive summaries of NERC GADS data, particularly summaries that on their own might be insufficient to warrant publication. In addition, it is intended to disseminate results rather than to enable reproduction as GADS is non-public.

Murphy, Sinnott [National Renewable Energy Laborat↗

Generalized Tensor-on-Tensor Regression (GToTR)

SAND2026-23069O Generalized Tensor-on-Tensor Regression (GToTR) is a Python-based tool for conducting generalized tensor-on-tensor regression. It provides Canonical Polyadic (CP)-based generalized tensor regression models, support for generalized linear model-like families and links, alternating-optimization model fitting methods, and a standard statistics software interface. The tool supports tensor-valued responses and covariates using the open-source Python Tensor Toolbox (pyttb) software package. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Dunlavy, Daniel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Li↗

ASPIRES: Airport Shuttle Planning and Improved Routing Event-driven Simulation

Most of the existing traffic simulation packages require significant calibration work to be able to reflect reality. To evaluate special operations including emerging technologies, a microscopic simulation that tracks detailed interactions of all the elements of the traffic systems is usually needed. This type of simulation is usually computationally demanding. This work developed an Airport Shuttle Planning and Improved Routing Event-driven Simulation (ASPIRES) package to simulate and evaluate current, potential, and future airport shuttle operations. Here, the simulation was driven by data and thus did not require much calibration effort. The discrete-event simulation nature of ASPIRES makes the simulation computationally efficient. Simulating 1 day of shuttle operations takes less than 2s. The study site of this work is the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport in the U.S. The shuttle service that connects the five terminals of the airport and the rental car center was studied. Travel times, dwell times, and passenger arrivals were simulated using empirical distributions derived mainly from real data to capture the stochastic nature of the rental car center shuttle bus operations. Data on bus miles traveled, bus energy consumption, passenger wait times, and passengers left behind at stops were collected to study the trade-off between energy use and passenger experience. Electric bus and on-demand bus operations were also included. The simulation outputs can show passengers statistics at terminals, shuttles statistics, and charging station statistics. ASPIRES cannot be used to model a generic traffic system but is well-suited for fleet systems.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Watermarks in stream processing systems: semantics and comparative analysis of Apache Flink and Google cloud dataflow

Streaming data processing is an exercise in taming disorder: from oftentimes huge torrents of information, we hope to extract powerful and timely analyses. But when dealing with streaming data, the unbounded and temporally disordered nature of real-world streams introduces a critical challenge: how does one reason about the completeness of a stream that never ends? In this paper, we present a comprehensive definition and analysis of watermarks, a key tool for reasoning about temporal completeness in infinite streams.First, we describe what watermarks are and why they are important, highlighting how they address a suite of stream processing needs that are poorly served by eventually-consistent approaches:• Computing a single correct answer, as in notifications.• Reasoning about a lack of data, as in dip detection.• Performing non-incremental processing over temporal subsets of an infinite stream, as in statistical anomaly detection with cubic spline models.• Safely and punctually garbage collecting obsolete inputs and intermediate state.• Surfacing a reliable signal of overall pipeline health.Second, we describe, evaluate, and compare the semantically equivalent, but starkly different, watermark implementations in two modern stream processing engines: Apache Flink and Google Cloud Dataflow.

Akidau, Tyler↗

Residential Building Energy Efficiency Field Studies: Low-Rise Multifamily

In recent years, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has conducted a series of research studies to validate energy efficient building technologies in the field. Much of the work has focused on single-family construction, and some has also addressed commercial energy codes. The work detailed in this DOE-funded study (EE0007616) focuses on low-rise multifamily buildings (three stories or fewer above grade) in various regions of the United States, and reports on how state-level building codes are being implemented, both in terms of observed characteristics and also in terms of estimated energy impacts. Nearly 100 buildings across four states—Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington—were sampled, which represent a range of climate types from mild temperature to very cold continental. Both common entry and outdoor entry buildings were included, and a parallel research project evaluated envelope air tightness and current still-evolving air tightness testing methods. Finally, a set of structured interviews of building designers and other relevant professionals was carried to out to gain more insight into this market. To the greatest extent possible, the methodology developed under the project for low-rise multifamily buildings mirrored the approach established by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for single-family residential buildings (https://www.energy.gov/eere/buildings/downloads/residential-building-energy-code-field-study). This included the general approach to sampling, recruitment, and data collection, as well as data analysis and presentation. The range of permitting dates for the sites encompassed two energy code cycles in most regions. All states in the study had adopted a variation of the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) for the structure of their state code. The low-rise multifamily occupancy presents a hybrid building type: most of the building’s conditioned floor area was covered by the residential chapter of the code while portions of the building (such as corridors and common spaces) fell under the commercial code chapter. The key items assessed in this work were: Building Shell—exterior wall insulation, ceiling insulation, foundation insulation, windows. Common Areas—HVAC and lighting. Living Units—lighting, ventilation. A few items were not assessed in detail, given their relative paucity in this occupancy type; these included duct leakage, pipe insulation, and hot water circulation controls. Building characteristics were collected via a combination of architectural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing plan reviews and field inspections, and entered into a spreadsheet-based tool that was later queried to build a database. Data went through quality control both upon arrival and via a later semi-automated review and assurance process. Most of the data are presented graphically so that the reader can quickly assess compliance with the applicable energy codes (both by state and by code year). As a final step, EnergyPlus™ simulations were created for all buildings in the study to estimate both the as-found energy use intensity (EUI) and the energy and CO 2 that could be saved if features that were found to not meet code minimums were brought up to code. The savings estimates were tabulated for each of the four states in the study. The research team found that the single-family approach was largely applicable to low-rise multifamily buildings. This applies to both the data collection and the prototype EUI analysis. Most of the occupied space is living units and falls under residential energy codes, and many characteristics use similar envelope construction and relatively straightforward mechanical systems and lighting. One of the most challenging aspects of this work was to build an effective spreadsheet-based data collection instrument that could allow efficient collection of both building plan and field data. The research team is of the view that other methods could be equally effective if the work is done carefully with diligent quality control. The primary findings for the work center around the thermal envelope and mechanical systems and lighting at the sites: For thermal envelope components, the majority of buildings met or were better than the prescriptive code.This suggests that building designers and builders are aware of code requirements. In some cases, surveyed buildings were designed to qualify for energy efficiency certification programs. These buildings made up at least 20% of sampled buildings in each state. Almost all buildings met mechanical system efficiency requirements (for both living units and common areas). In some cases, sites employed systems that were considerably more efficient than required by the applicable energy code. Dwelling units had a majority of high-efficacy lighting, often in excess of the state’s residential code requirements. While high-efficacy fixtures were also typical in common areas (corridors and stairwells), lighting power densities (LPDs) in these areas were sometimes higher than levels dictated by the applicable part of the state commercial energy code. The simulation models run on a series of low-rise multifamily prototypes, informed by a composite of the field data collected, calculated annual EUIs of between 20 and 50 kBtu/ft2-yr, with the range representing the effects of both building characteristics and building location (climate zone). A detailed process (based on simulations of prototype buildings) was used to estimate the amount of avoided energy use that would occur if 100% adherence to energy codes were attained. The results indicated modest savings are attainable for items such as window thermal performance and common area lighting. The result is overall only a modest potential for additional energy savings, averaging about 10% of EUI.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Stochastic Price Generation for Evaluating Wholesale Electricity Market Bidding Strategies

This work presents a novel method for generating electricity price scenarios from statistical properties of past electricity prices using a hybrid statistical and reduced-form stochastic model. Previous work in applying stochastic differential equations (SDE) to model electricity prices has focused on daily average prices. To extend stochastic price generation methods to hourly or sub-hourly pricing, we address several weaknesses in the state-of-the-art: (1) we replace the mean-reversion component of the SDE with an ARIMA process that is better able to characterize the daily and weekly trends; (2) we extend the price-spike, or jump process to account for conditional probabilities of price spikes occurring in consecutive time steps by replacing the traditional Poisson process for modeling jumps with a generalized point process model inspired by brain neuron models; and (3) we replace the traditional method of estimating spike intensity with empirical variance with a Markov process based on observed price spike intensity transitions. The method is demonstrated with electricity prices from the US ERCOT market and a use-case example is provided for bidding an energy storage unit into the day-ahead and real-time energy markets of ERCOT using stochastic optimization methods. Results show that the the synthetic price model out performs a (naive) persistence forecast model by resulting in 24% to 47% more in profits over 168 simulated days.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Regulatory Testing of RPP-WTP HLW Glasses to Support Delisting Compliance, VSL-04R4780-1, Rev. 0 (Sep 2004)

The primary goal of the testing described in this report was to collect data to demonstrate compliance of the immobilized high-level waste (IHLW) glasses with delisting requirements. The collected data will be used to support a petition to delist the IHLW glasses destined for the national disposal facility. The Delisting Data Quality Objectives (DQO) (Cook and Blumenkranz 2003) identified a list of (16) inorganic constituents of potential concern (COPCs) and their associated limits for delisting. These COPCs can be divided into three groups, Cases 1, 2, and 3, based on their Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP) responses versus their respective delisting limits. To briefly summarize, Case 1 COPCs are those that, when loaded at their highest expected concentration in Waste Treatment Plant (WTP) glasses, are not expected to leach at their respective delisting limits when the glasses are exposed to the TCLP. Case 2 COPCs may reach the delisting limits in TCLP leachates of WTP glasses if loaded to concentrations near their maximum expected concentrations in glass. Finally, Case 3 COPCs are components that are likely to be present in concentrations sufficient to exceed their respective delisting limits in TCLP leachates of some possible glasses. The test objective was to show that, for (i) the expected range of inorganic contents in the waste feed to the Hanford WTP high level waste (HLW) vitrification facility, (ii) the expected range of glass product compositions, and (iii) the Case 1 and Case 2 COPCs identified by the DQO, the IHLW glasses meet all the relevant requirements for delisting. For Case 3 COPCs (i.e., Cd), the testing was to demonstrate the relationship between glass composition and TCLP cadmium (Cd) release, and then employ the results to develop TCLP-composition response models. During WTP operations, TCLP-composition models can be used to predict, within the required statistical uncertainties, TCLP responses of IHLW production glasses that are within the compositional region used to develop the model.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

First Sterile Neutrino Search at NOvA Experiment Using both Neutrino and Anti-Neutrino Data

NOvA is a long-baseline experiment with two functionally identical detectors with a Near Detector placed 1 km from the neutrino source at Fermilab and a Far Detector 810 km away at Ash River, Minnesota. NOvA uses a very high-intensity ($\sim$900 kW) beam of neutrinos and antineutrinos from Fermilab's NuMI beamline, together with two functionally identical detectors placed 14 mrad off the beam axis. NOvA is built to investigate the complex properties of neutrinos with an emphasis on neutrino oscillations. NOvA not only probes active neutrino mixing but also explores exotic oscillations, including sterile neutrino searches. This analysis uses the joint $\nu_{\mu}$ and neutral current (NC) disappearance channels to probe active-sterile mixing in the 3+1 model. Furthermore, this analysis leverages our statistics of 27$\times$10$^{20}$ protons on target (POT) in neutrino mode and 12.5$\times$10$^{20}$ protons on target (POT) in antineutrino mode. In this poster, we will present the first dual-baseline search for sterile neutrinos using both the neutrino and antineutrino datasets.

Chaudhary, S. [Indian Inst. Tech., Guwahati]↗