Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “spectral statistics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,261 records · Page 70
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

The HOSTS Survey for Exozodiacal Dust: Observational Results from the Complete Survey

The Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer (LBTI) enables nulling interferometric observations across the N band (8 to 13 μm) to suppress a star's bright light and probe for faint circumstellar emission. We present and statistically analyze the results from the LBTI/Hunt for Observable Signatures of Terrestrial Systems survey for exozodiacal dust. By comparing our measurements to model predictions based on the solar zodiacal dust in the N band, we estimate a 1σ median sensitivity of 23 zodis times the solar system dust surface density in its habitable zone (HZ; 23 zodis) for early-type stars and 48 zodis for Sun-like stars, where 1 zodi is the surface density of HZ dust in the solar system. Of the 38 stars observed, 10 show significant excess. A clear correlation of our detections with the presence of cold dust in the systems was found, but none with the stellar spectral type or age. The majority of Sun-like stars have relatively low HZ dust levels (best-fit median: 3 zodis, 1σ upper limit: 9 zodis, 95% confidence: 27 zodis based on our N band measurements), while ~20% are significantly more dusty. The solar system's HZ dust content is consistent with being typical. Our median HZ dust level would not be a major limitation to the direct imaging search for Earth-like exoplanets, but more precise constraints are still required, in particular to evaluate the impact of exozodiacal dust for the spectroscopic characterization of imaged exo-Earth candidates.

Exozodiacal dust↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global SO 2 Data Record from OMPS Instruments on the JPSS Constellation

NASA’s Earth Observing System (EOS) SO 2 climate data record (CDR) started in 2004, with the launch of the Aura/Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and is now being continued with the SNPP/Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) launched in 2011. Both OMI and SNPP/OMPS SO 2 CDRs are produced with the Goddard principal component analysis (PCA) spectral fitting algorithm. An advantage of the data-driven PCA retrieval technique is that it enables highly consistent retrievals from different instruments, by inherently accounting for various instrumental factors. To further extend the EOS SO 2 CDR, we are implementing the PCA SO 2 retrieval algorithm with the L1B measurements from OMPS instruments flying on the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) constellation. In this presentation, we will provide an update on our progress in NOAA-20 (launched in 2017) and NOAA-21 (launched in 2022) PCA SO2 retrievals. We will focus on our new NOAA-20/OMPS PCA SO 2 EOS continuity product, to be publicly released in fall of 2023. We will present statistical analyses on the quality of NOAA-20 PCA SO 2 product, including retrieval noise, biases over background areas, and long-term stability. We will compare our PCA SO 2 retrievals from NOAA-20 with those from OMI, SNPP/OMPS, and S5P/TROPOMI (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument) for anthropogenic sources as well as large volcanic plumes. We will also discuss the application of a new machine learning technique that helps to further reduce the noise of NOAA-20 SO 2 retrievals. In addition, we will present preliminary PCA SO 2 retrievals from NOAA-21/OMPS, including those from direct readout implementation for aviation disaster avoidance. Finally, we will share some first results applying the PCA algorithm to NASA’s geostationary TEMPO (Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution) instrument to obtain hourly, high resolution SO 2 data over North America.

SO2↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven RANS Turbulence Closures for Forced Convection Flow in Reactor Downcomer Geometry

Recent progress in data-driven turbulence modeling has shown its potential to enhance or replace traditional equation-based Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models. Here, this work utilizes invariant neural network (NN) architectures to model Reynolds stresses and turbulent heat fluxes in forced convection flows (when the models can be decoupled). As the considered flow is statistically one dimensional, the invariant NN architecture for the Reynolds stress model reduces to the linear eddy viscosity model. To develop the data-driven models, direct numerical and RANS simulations in vertical planar channel geometry mimicking a part of the reactor downcomer are performed. Different conditions and fluids relevant to advanced reactors (sodium, lead, unitary-Prandtl-number fluid, and molten salt) constitute the training database. The models enabled accurate predictions of velocity and temperature, and compared to the baseline k–τ turbulence model with the simple gradient diffusion hypothesis, do not require tuning of the turbulent Prandtl number. The data-driven framework is implemented in the open-source graphics processing unit–accelerated spectral element solver nekRS and has shown the potential for future developments and consideration of more complex mixed convection flows.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Time-resolved particle image velocimetry

Time-resolved particle image velocimetry (TR-PIV) has become widespread in fluid dynamics. Essentially a velocity field movie, the dynamic content provides temporal as well as spatial information, in contrast to conventional PIV offering only statistical ensembles of flow quantities. From these time series arise further analyses such as accelerometry, space-time correlations, frequency spectra of turbulence including spatial variability, and derivation of pressure fields and forces. The historical development of TR-PIV is chronicled, culminating in an assessment of the current state of technology in high-repetition-rate lasers and high-speed cameras. Commercialization of pulse-burst lasers has expanded TR-PIV into more flows, including the compressible regime, and has achieved MHz rates. Particle response times and peak locking during image interrogation require attention but generally are not impediments to success. Accuracy considerations are discussed, including the risks of noise and aliasing in spectral content. Oversampled TR-PIV measurements allow use of multi-frame image interrogation methods, which improve the precision of the correlation and raise the velocity dynamic range of PIV. In combination with volumetric methods and data assimilation, a full four-dimensional description of a flow is not only achievable but becoming standardized. Lastly, a survey of exemplary applications is followed by a few predictions concerning the future of TR-PIV.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS1997

Analysis of Solar Spectral Irradiance Measurements from the SBUV/2-Series and the SSBUV Instruments

During this period of performance, 1 March 1997 - 31 August 1997, the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 solar spectral irradiance data set was validated using both internal and external assessments. Initial quality checking revealed minor problems with the data (e.g. residual goniometric errors, that were manifest as differences between the two scans acquired each day). The sources of these errors were determined and the errors were corrected. Time series were constructed for selected wavelengths and the solar irradiance changes measured by the instrument were compared to a Mg II proxy-based model of short- and long-term solar irradiance variations. This analysis suggested that errors due to residual, uncorrected long-term instrument drift have been reduced to less than 1-2% over the entire 5.5 year NOAA-11 data record. Detailed statistical analysis was performed. This analysis, which will be documented in a manuscript now in preparation, conclusively demonstrates the evolution of solar rotation periodicity and strength during solar cycle 22.

Cebula, Richard P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Multiwavelength Observations of Volatiles in Comets

Recently, there have been complimentary observations from multiple facilities to try to unravel the chemical complexity of comets. Incorporating results from various techniques, including: single-dish millimeter wavelength observations, interferometers, and/or IR spectroscopy, one can gain further insight into the abundances, production rates, distributions, and formation mechanisms of molecules in these objects [I]. Such studies have provided great detail towards molecules with a-typical chemistries, such as H2CO [2]. We report spectral observations of C/2006 M4 (SWAN), C/2007 N3 (Lulin), and C/2009 RI (McNaught) with the Arizona Radio Observatory's SMT and 12-m telescopes, as well as the NRAO Greenbank telescope and IRTFCSHELL. Multiple parent volatiles (HCN, CH3OH, CO, CH4, C2H6, and H2O) plus two photodissociation products (CS and OH) have been detected in these objects. We will present a comparison of molecular abundances in these comets to those observed in others, supporting a long-term effort of building a comet taxonomy based on composition. Previous work has revealed a range of abundances of parent species (from "organics-poor" to "organics-rich") with respect to water among comets [3,4,5], however the statistics are stiII poorly constrained and interpretations of the observed compositional diversity are uncertain.

Milam, Stefanie N.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Convective and Turbulent Motions in Nonprecipitating Cu. Part III: Characteristics of Turbulence Motions

Velocity field in a nonprecipitating Cu under BOMEX conditions, simulated by SAM with 10-m resolution and spectral bin microphysics is separated into the convective part and the turbulent part, using a wavelet filtering. In Part II of the study properties of convective motions of this Cu were investigated. Here in Part III of the study, the parameters of cloud turbulence are calculated in the cloud updraft zone at different stages of cloud development. The main points of this study are (i) application of a fine-scale LES model of a single convective cloud allowed a direct estimation of turbulence parameters using the resolved flow in the cloud and (ii) the separation of the resolved flow into the turbulence flow and the nonturbulence flow allowed us to estimate different turbulent parameters with sufficient statistical accuracy. We calculated height and time dependences of the main turbulent parameters such as turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), spectra of TKE, dissipation rate, and the turbulent coefficient. It was found that the main source of turbulence in the cloud is buoyancy whose contribution is described by the buoyancy production term (BPT). The shear production term (SPT) increases with height and reaches its maximum near cloud top, and so does BPT. In agreement with the behavior of BPT and SPT, turbulence in the lower cloud part (below the inversion level) is weak and hardly affects the processes of mixing and entrainment. The fact that BPT is larger than SPT determines many properties of cloud turbulence. For instance, the turbulence is nonisotropic, so the vertical component of TKE is substantially larger than the horizontal components. Another consequence of the fact that BPT is larger than STP manifests itself in the finding that the turbulence spectrum largely obeys the -11/5 Bolgiano–Obukhov scaling. The classical Kolmogorov -5/3 scaling dominates for the low part of a cloud largely at the dissolving stage of cloud evolution. Using the spectra obtained we evaluated an “effective” dissipation rate which increases with height from nearly zero at cloud base up to 20 cm 2 s -3 near cloud top. The coefficient of turbulent diffusion was found to increase with height and ranged from 5 m 2 s -1 near cloud base to 25 m 2 s -1 near cloud top. In conclusion, the possible role of turbulence in the process of lateral entrainment and mixing is discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1997

Radio Occultation Investigation of the Rings of Saturn and Uranus

The proposed work addresses two main objectives: (1) to pursue the development of the random diffraction screen model for analytical/computational characterization of the extinction and near-forward scattering by ring models that include particle crowding, uniform clustering, and clustering along preferred orientations (anisotropy). The characterization is crucial for proper interpretation of past (Voyager) and future (Cassini) ring, occultation observations in terms of physical ring properties, and is needed to address outstanding puzzles in the interpretation of the Voyager radio occultation data sets; (2) to continue the development of spectral analysis techniques to identify and characterize the power scattered by all features of Saturn's rings that can be resolved in the Voyager radio occultation observations, and to use the results to constrain the maximum particle size and its abundance. Characterization of the variability of surface mass density among the main ring, features and within individual features is important for constraining the ring mass and is relevant to investigations of ring dynamics and origin. We completed the developed of the stochastic geometry (random screen) model for the interaction of electromagnetic waves with of planetary ring models; used the model to relate the oblique optical depth and the angular spectrum of the near forward scattered signal to statistical averages of the stochastic geometry of the randomly blocked area. WE developed analytical results based on the assumption of Poisson statistics for particle positions, and investigated the dependence of the oblique optical depth and angular spectrum on the fractional area blocked, vertical ring profile, and incidence angle when the volume fraction is small. Demonstrated agreement with the classical radiative transfer predictions for oblique incidence. Also developed simulation procedures to generate statistical realizations of random screens corresponding to uniformly packed ring models, and used the results to characterize dependence of the extinction and near-forward scattering on ring thickness, packing fraction, and the ring opening angle.

Marouf, Essam A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

X-Ray Variation Statistics and Wind Clumping in Vela X-1

We investigate the structure of the wind in the neutron star X-ray binary system Vela X-1 by analyzing its flaring behavior. Vela X-1 shows constant flaring, with some flares reaching fluxes of more than 3.0 Crab between 20-60 keV for several 100 seconds, while the average flux is around 250 mCrab. We analyzed all archival INTEGRAL data, calculating the brightness distribution in the 20-60 keV band, which, as we show, closely follows a log-normal distribution. Orbital resolved analysis shows that the structure is strongly variable, explainable by shocks and a fluctuating accretion wake. Analysis of RXTE ASM data suggests a strong orbital change of N. Accreted clump masses derived from the INTEGRAL data are on the order of 5 x 10(exp 19)-10(exp 21) g. We show that the lightcurve can be described with a model of multiplicative random numbers. In the course of the simulation we calculate the power spectral density of the system in the 20-100 keV energy band and show that it follows a red-noise power law. We suggest that a mixture of a clumpy wind, shocks, and turbulence can explain the measured mass distribution. As the recently discovered class of supergiant fast X-ray transients (SFXT) seems to show the same parameters for the wind, the link between persistent HMXB like Vela X-1 and SFXT is further strengthened.

Furst, Felix↗
NASA NTRS1983

Land cover change monitoring within the east central Louisiana study site: A case for large area surveys with LANDSAT multispectral scanner data

Results established for four digital procedures developed for characterizing the radiometric changes between multidate LANDSAT spectral data sets into meaningful measures of land cover/use dynamics are documented. Each technique's performance was contrasted against digitized land use change maps, which were produced from contemporaneous, retrospective aerophoto coverage, in a cell by cell comparison over a one half by one degree area in east central Louisiana as a standard for comparison. The four techniques identify from 10.5 to 13.0% loss in area of forestland in a five year period; however, they differ more by how accurately this amount of change is distributed, the need for ancillary ground truth, and amount of usable information that is extractable. All require some method of digitally co-registering the two data sets. All are capable of providing tabular statistics as well as map products. Two are capable of detecting changes and identifying their locations. The other two, in addition to this, provide information to qualify land cover conditions at each end of the study interval.

Burns, G. S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Unraveling Cu Chemical Signature in CdTe by Spectral Fluorescence Mapping

X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) has been shown to be a powerful tool to unravel the chemical environment of a given atom within a matrix. When used in correlative X-ray microscopy approaches, XAS allows one to probe with nanoscale precision regions of particular interest in an absorber. Herein, we use X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) to evaluate the chemical environment of Cu atoms within a CdTe solar cell. The reconstruction of XANES spectra from XRF maps have unfolded 2D maps of Cu chemical structures. In this work, we found that most Cu atoms exist in Cu 2 Te and Cu 1.4 Te phase. Moreover, we found traces of CuTe, Cu 2 O, CuO, Cu 2 S, CuS, and metallic Cu phase. Investigating Cu chemical structures at different performing areas, we found no observable correlation between Cu chemical structures and electrical performance. This approach allows tracking of Cu chemical structures along with electrical performance and elemental distribution simultaneously, with high spatial resolution in a statistically practical way.

CdTe↗
NASA NTRS1999

Gamma-Ray Burst Class Properties

Guided by the Supervised pattern recognition algorithm C4.5, we examine the three gamma-ray burst classes identified by Mukherjee et al. C4.5 provides strong statistical support for this classification. However, with C4.5 and our knowledge of the BATSE instrument, we demonstrate that Class 3 (intermediate fluence, intermediate duration, soft) does not have to be a distinct source population: statistical/systematic errors in measuring burst attributes combined with the well-known hardness/intensity correlation can cause low peak flux Class I (high fluence, long, intermediate hardness) bursts to take on Class 3 characteristics naturally. Based on our hypothesis that the third class is not a distinct one, we provide rules so that future events can be placed in either Class I or Class 2 (low fluence, short, hard). Using classified bursts from the BATSE 4B Catalog, we plot log(N>P) vs. log(P) curves and study spectral features of each class. We find that the two classes are relatively distinct on the basis of spectral parameters, alpha, Beta, and E(sub peak) alone. Although this does not indicate a better basis for classification, it does suggest that different physical conditions exist for Class I and Class 2 bursts. In the process of studying burst class characteristics, we identify a new bias that affects measurement of burst fluences and durations. Using a simple model of how burst duration can be underestimated, we generally characterize how this fluence duration bias affects BATSE measurements, and demonstrate the type of effect it can have on the BATSE fluence vs. peak flux diagram.

Hakkila, Jon↗
NASA NTRS2013

Achieving Climate Change Absolute Accuracy in Orbit

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission will provide a calibration laboratory in orbit for the purpose of accurately measuring and attributing climate change. CLARREO measurements establish new climate change benchmarks with high absolute radiometric accuracy and high statistical confidence across a wide range of essential climate variables. CLARREO's inherently high absolute accuracy will be verified and traceable on orbit to Système Internationale (SI) units. The benchmarks established by CLARREO will be critical for assessing changes in the Earth system and climate model predictive capabilities for decades into the future as society works to meet the challenge of optimizing strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change. The CLARREO benchmarks are derived from measurements of the Earth's thermal infrared spectrum (5-50 micron), the spectrum of solar radiation reflected by the Earth and its atmosphere (320-2300 nm), and radio occultation refractivity from which accurate temperature profiles are derived. The mission has the ability to provide new spectral fingerprints of climate change, as well as to provide the first orbiting radiometer with accuracy sufficient to serve as the reference transfer standard for other space sensors, in essence serving as a "NIST [National Institute of Standards and Technology] in orbit." CLARREO will greatly improve the accuracy and relevance of a wide range of space-borne instruments for decadal climate change. Finally, CLARREO has developed new metrics and methods for determining the accuracy requirements of climate observations for a wide range of climate variables and uncertainty sources. These methods should be useful for improving our understanding of observing requirements for most climate change observations.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Mg II Spectral Atlas and Flux Catalog for Late-Type Stars in the Hyades Cluster

In the course of a long-running IUE Guest Observer program, UV spectral images were obtained for more than 60 late-type members of the Hyades Cluster in order to investigate their chromospheric emissions. The emission line fluxes extracted from those observations were used to study the dependence of stellar dynamo activity upon age and rotation (IUE Observations of Rapidly Rotating Low-Mass Stars in Young Clusters: The Relation between Chromospheric Activity and Rotation). However, the details of those measurements, including a tabulation of the line fluxes, were never published. The purpose of the investigation summarized here was to extract all of the existing Hyades long-wavelength Mg II spectra in the IUE public archives in order to survey UV chromospheric emission in the cluster, thereby providing a consistent dataset for statistical and correlative studies of the relationship between stellar dynamo activity, rotation, and age over a broad range in mass.

Simon, Theodore↗
NASA NTRS2012

Evaluating the Contribution of NASA Remotely-Sensed Data Sets on a Convection-Allowing Forecast Model

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service forecast offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to help its partners address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is using guidance from local and regional deterministic numerical models configured at convection-allowing resolution to help assess a variety of mesoscale/convective-scale phenomena such as sea-breezes, local wind circulations, and mesoscale convective weather potential on a given day. While guidance from convection-allowing models has proven valuable in many circumstances, the potential exists for model improvements by incorporating more representative land-water surface datasets, and by assimilating retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from hyper-spectral sounders. In order to help increase the accuracy of deterministic convection-allowing models, SPoRT produces real-time, 4-km CONUS forecasts using a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (hereafter SPoRT-WRF) that includes unique NASA products and capabilities including 4-km resolution soil initialization data from the Land Information System (LIS), 2-km resolution SPoRT SST composites over oceans and large water bodies, high-resolution real-time Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composites derived from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, and retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). NCAR's Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package is used to generate statistics of model performance compared to in situ observations and rainfall analyses for three months during the summer of 2012 (June-August). Detailed analyses of specific severe weather outbreaks during the summer will be presented to assess the potential added-value of the SPoRT datasets and data assimilation methodology compared to a WRF configuration without the unique datasets and data assimilation.

Zavodsky, Bradley T.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Formation Heritage of Jupiter Family Comet 10P/Tempel 2 as Revealed by Infrared Spectroscopy

We present spectral and spatial information for major volatile species in Comet 10P/Tempel 2, based on high-dispersion infrared spectra acquired on UT 2010 July 26 (heliocentric distance R h = 1.44 AU) and September 18 (R h = 1.62 AU), following the comet’s perihelion passage on UT 2010 July 04. The total production rate for water on July 26 was (1.90 ± 0.12) × 10 28 molecules s −1 , and abundances of six trace gases (relative to water) were: CH 3 OH (1.58% ± 0.23%), C 2 H 6 (0.39% ± 0.04%), NH 3 (0.83% ± 0.20%), and HCN (0.13% ± 0.02%). A detailed analysis of intensities for water emission lines provided a rotational temperature of 35 ± 3 K. The mean OPR is consistent with nuclear spin populations in statistical equilibrium (OPR = 3.01 ± 0.18), and the (1σ) lower bound corresponds to a spin temperature >38 K. Our measurements were contemporaneous with a jet-like feature observed at optical wavelengths. The spatial profiles of four primary volatiles display strong enhancements in the jet direction, which favors release from a localized vent on the nucleus. The measured IR continuum is much more sharply peaked and is consistent with a dominant contribution from the nucleus itself. The peak intensities for H 2 O, CH 3 OH, and C 2 H 6 are offset by ∼200 km in the jet direction, suggesting the possible existence of a distributed source, such as the release of icy grains that subsequently sublimed in the coma. On UT September 18, no obvious emission lines were present in our spectra, nevertheless we obtained a 3σ upper limit Q(H 2 O) < 2.86 × 10 27 molecules s −1 .

Organic Chemistry↗
NASA NTRS2022

Precision Measurement of the Nickel Spectrum in Cosmic Rays from 8.8 GeV/n to 240 GeV/n with CALET on the International Space Station

The relative abundance of nickel with respect to iron is by far larger than all other trans-iron elements, therefore it provides a favourable opportunity for a low background measurement of its spectrum. Since nickel, as well as iron, is one of the most stable nuclei, the nickel energy spectrum and its relative abundance with respect to iron provide important information to estimate the abundances at the source and to model the propagation of heavy nuclei. However, only a few direct measurements of cosmic-ray nickel at energy larger than∼3 GeV/n are available at present in the literature and they are affected by strong limitations in both energy reach and statistics. In this paper we present a measurement of the differential energy spectrum of nickel from 8.8 GeV/nto 240 GeV/n, carried out with unprecedented precision by the Calorimetric Electron1 Telescope(CALET) in operation on the International Space Station since 2015. The CALET instrument can identify individual nuclear species via a measurement of their electric charge with a dynamic range extending far beyond iron (up to atomic number Z = 40). The particle’s energy is measured by a homogeneous calorimeter (1.2 proton interaction lengths, 27 radiation lengths) preceded by a thin imaging section (3 radiation lengths) providing tracking and energy sampling. This paper follows our previous measurement of the iron spectrum [1] and it extends our investigation on the energy dependence of the spectral index of heavy elements. It reports the analysis of nickel data collected from November 2015 to May 2021 and a detailed assessment of the systematic uncertainties. In the region from 20 GeV/nto 240 GeV/n our present data are compatible within the errors with a single power law with spectral index−2.51±0.07.

O Adriani↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Graphite Creep Uncertainty Analysis

Radiation damage estimation is an important component of the post irradiation analysis of the Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC) experiment. It depends primarily on the fast fluence, which is determined using well established methods of spectral adjustment. These are based on best estimates from models such as Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP), input cross-sections, and measured activities from flux wires in the experiment. Each of these parameters can propagate uncertainties which will affect the uncertainty in the calculated dose levels for AGC, or any experiment irradiated within a reactor. While the methods of propagating uncertainty are well-established, the final uncertainty estimates they provide are only as good as the estimates of uncertainty in the inputs on which they are based. The purpose of this work is to outline some deficiencies in the ways these input uncertainties are presently estimated, and to outline a methodology by which they can be improved. The fast fluence and radiation damage received by graphite specimens irradiated in the Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC) experiments is presently estimated using spectral adjustment methods that are based on both flux wire activity measurements, and MCNP model predictions. This work describes an ongoing effort to quantify and propagate uncertainties in inputs to the spectral adjustment process, and thereby quantify the resultant error in radiation damage (dpa) estimates. The effort is multi-faceted, and we consider the impacts of both the set of flux wires selected, and the counting process. An expanded set of flux wires is identified that provides a more comprehensive data set on the fast spectrum. To address the counting process itself, a series of round-robin measurements in several reactor metrology laboratories across the Department of Energy (DOE) complex and nuclear industry are being undertaken to refine the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standards for flux wire measurements. To address the contribution of uncertainty in the MCNP model predictions, an uncertainty quantification (UQ) tool has been developed that statistically samples the model input parameters, runs a series of cases, and assimilates the results to provide an overall uncertainty. The impact of the MCNP UQ tool results is demonstrated by re-analyzing previous AGC flux wire and irradiation data. While the expanded flux wire set obviously cannot be added to these experiments retroactively, plans for future graphite irradiations are outlined.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗