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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Stars at High Spatial Resolution

We summarize some of the compelling new scientific opportunities for understanding stars and stellar systems that can be enabled by sub-milliarcsec (sub-mas) angular resolution, UV/Optical spectral imaging observations, which can reveal the details of the many dynamic processes (e.g., evolving magnetic fields, accretion, convection, shocks, pulsations, winds, and jets) that affect stellar formation, structure, and evolution. These observations can only be provided by long baseline interferometers or sparse aperture telescopes in space, since the aperture diameters required are in excess of 500 m – a regime in which monolithic or segmented designs are not and will not be feasible - and since they require observations at wavelengths (UV) not accessible from the ground. Such observational capabilities would enable tremendous gains in our understanding of the individual stars and stellar systems that are the building blocks of our Universe and which serve as the hosts for life throughout the Cosmos.

Kenneth G Carpenter↗

Central Valley Water Resources: Improving California Groundwater Assessments using GRACE and InSAR Datasets for Water Resource Management

California’s Central Valley is one of the most productive agricultural areas in the world, producing approximately $20 billion in crops annually. The recent California droughts of 2007-2010 and 2012-2019 resulted in increased groundwater pumping in the Central Valley to adequately irrigate farmland. Overdrafting of the Central Valley aquifer results in groundwater depletion, land subsidence, and permanent loss of groundwater storage. In 2014, depletion of groundwater led the state of California to enact the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA),requiring critically overdrafted, high, and medium priority sub-basins to reach sustainable levels of groundwater pumping and recharge by 2042. SGMA allows local Groundwater Sustainability Agencies (GSAs) the authority to create Groundwater Sustainability Plans (GSPs) at the sub-basin level. To assist California’s Department of Water Resources (DWR), this project quantified groundwater change and land subsidence in Central Valley sub-basins with sparse or unreliable well and Geographic Positioning Systems (GPS) data. This was done using NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), GRACE FollowOn (GRACE-FO), and interferograms derived from Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR) and Advanced Land Observing Satellite 2 (ALOS-2)Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar 2 (PALSAR-2). Time series of the GRACE and InSAR data were compared with well and GPS data in data-dense sub-basins to determine the feasibility of these datasets for groundwater storage and subsidence monitoring. We found that GRACE and InSAR data are effective tools for determining groundwater change and land subsidence and can be used on their own to monitor sub-basins in the absence of well and GPS data

Water Resources↗

Central Valley Water Resources: Improving California Groundwater Assessments using GRACE and InSAR Datasets for Water Resource Management

California’s Central Valley is one of the most productive agricultural areas in the world, producing approximately $20 billion in crops annually. The recent California droughts of 2007-2010 and 2011-2017 resulted in increased groundwater pumping in the Central Valley to adequately irrigate farmland. Overdrafting of the Central Valley aquifer results in groundwater depletion, land subsidence, and permanent loss of groundwater storage. In 2014, depletion of groundwater led the state of California to enact the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), requiring critically overdrafted, high, and medium priority sub-basins to reach sustainable levels of groundwater pumping and recharge by 2042. SGMA allows local Groundwater Sustainability Agencies the authority to create Groundwater Sustainability Plans at the sub-basin level. To assist California’s Department of Water Resources, this project quantified groundwater change and land subsidence in Central Valley sub-basins with sparse or unreliable well and GPS data. This was done using NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO), and interferograms derived from Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR) and Advanced Land Observing Satellite 2 (ALOS-2) Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar 2 (PALSAR-2). Time series of the GRACE and InSAR data were compared with well and GPS data in data-dense sub-basins to determine the feasibility of these datasets for groundwater storage and subsidence monitoring. We found thatGRACE and InSAR data are effective tools for determining groundwater change and land subsidence and can be used on their own to monitor sub-basins in the absence of well and GPS data.

Water Resources↗

Application of Low-Cost Fine Particulate Mass Monitors to Convert Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth Measurements to Surface Concentrations in North America and Africa

Low-cost particulate mass sensors provide opportunities to assess air quality at unprecedented spatial and temporal resolutions. Established traditional monitoring networks have limited spatial resolution and are simply absent in many major cities across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Satellites provide snapshots of regional air pollution but require ground-truthing. Low-cost monitors can supplement and extend data coverage from these sources worldwide, providing a better overall air quality picture. We investigate the utility of such a multi-source data integration approach using two case studies. First, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, both traditional monitoring and dense low-cost sensor networks are compared with satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from NASA's MODIS system, and a linear conversion factor is developed to convert AOD to surface fine particulate matter mass concentration (as PM2.5). With 10 or more ground monitors in Pittsburgh, there is a 2-fold reduction in surface PM2.5 estimation mean absolute error compared to using only a single ground monitor. Second, we assess the ability of combined regional-scale satellite retrievals and local-scale low-cost sensor measurements to improve surface PM2.5 estimation at several urban sites in SSA. In Rwanda, we find that combining local ground monitoring information with satellite data provides a 40 % improvement in surface PM2.5 estimation accuracy with respect to using low-cost ground monitoring data alone. A linear AOD-to-surface-PM2.5 conversion factor developed in Kigali, Rwanda, did not generalize well to other parts of SSA and varied seasonally for the same location, emphasizing the need for ongoing and localized ground-based monitoring, which can be facilitated by low-cost sensors. Overall, we find that combining ground-based low-cost sensor and satellite data, even without including additional meteorological or land use information, can improve and expand spatiotemporal air quality data coverage, especially in data-sparse regions.

AOD↗

Characterization of OCO-2 and ACOS-GOSAT biases and errors for flux estimates

We characterize the magnitude of seasonally and spatially varying biases in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) Version 8 (v8) and the Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space (ACOS) Greenhouse Gas Observing SATellite (GOSAT) version 7.3 (v7.3) satellite CO2 retrievals by comparisons to measurements collected by the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) experiment, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) aircraft, and surface stations. Although the ACOS-GOSAT estimates of the column averaged carbon dioxide (CO2) dry air mole fraction (XCO2) have larger random errors than the OCO-2 XCO2 estimates, and the space-based estimates over land have larger random errors than those over ocean, the systematic errors are similar across both satellites and surface types, 0.6 ± 0.1 ppm. We find similar estimates of systematic error whether dynamic versus geometric coincidences or ESRL/DOE aircraft versus TCCON are used for validation (over land), once validation and co-location errors are accounted for. We also find that areas with sparse throughput of good quality data (due to quality flags and preprocessor selection) over land have ~double the error of regions of high-throughput of good quality data. We characterize both raw and bias-corrected results, finding that bias correction improves systematic errors by a factor of 2 for land observations and improves errors by ~0.2 ppm for ocean. We validate the lowermost tropospheric (LMT) product for OCO-2 and ACOS-GOSAT by comparison to aircraft and surface sites, finding systematic errors of ~1.1 ppm, while having 2-3 times the variability of XCO2. We characterize the time and distance scales of correlations for OCO-2 XCO2 errors, and find error correlations on scales of 0.3 degrees, 5-10 degrees, and 60 days. We find comparable scale lengths for the bias correction term. Assimilation of the OCO-2 bias correction term is used to estimate flux errors resulting from OCO-2 seasonal biases, finding annual flux errors on the order of 0.3 and 0.4 PgC/yr for Transcom-3 ocean and land regions, respectively.

Susan S Kulawik↗

Coherence Analysis of the Space Launch System using Unsteady Pressure Sensitive Paint

Transonic buffet during atmospheric ascent is a major source of unsteady loading on launch vehicles that, in the past, has led to structural failures. Thus, determining accurate buffet forcing functions (BFFs) to properly predict the vehicle response to buffet is of vital importance in launch vehicle design. The state of the art for obtaining the BFFs relies on wind-tunnel tests where the fluctuating pressures are measured by pressure transducers (PTs) at sparse locations on a rigid, geometrically-scaled buffet model. To compute the BFFs, the outer mold line (OML) of the vehicle is mapped onto contiguous panels centered at the location of the PTs and the measured fluctuating pressures are integrated over the panels’ areas. To mitigate conservatism due to the assumption that the measured buffet pressures act in phase across each panel, coherence factors are applied, effectively reducing the integration areas and, therefore, the buffet forces. For coherence factors to provide the proper level of BFF attenuation, accurate knowledge of the spatial and temporal correlation of the buffet pressures is paramount. Unfortunately, even with hundreds of unsteady pressure transducers instrumenting the models, compromises must be made on the spatial resolution of the PTs. Typically, the PT layout aims at resolving the pressure correlation along the longitudinal axis of the vehicle, assuming that coherent structures propagate mostly in the longitudinal direction. As a result, the distribution of azimuthal/cross-stream correlation is not well known and its impact on the estimated BFFs is often neglected. To fill this and other knowledge gaps, extremely high spatial-resolution uPSP data were collected for three different production-design configurations of the Space Launch System in the NASA Ames Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel 11-Foot Transonic Wind Tunnel. Specifically, two cargo configurations, the Block 1 and Block 1B, and one crew configuration, the Block 1B crew, were surveyed at resolutions ranging from 600,000 to over 1 million uPSP measurement locations. To shed light on the temporal and spectral behavior of are presented. Several OML regions and flow features of interest are investigated, from theexpansion/shock on the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, to the terminal shock environment on the core stage, and the Strouhal shedding behind the boosters forward attach. The sensitivity of these environments to the vehicle attitude is examined. Furthermore, for selected panels,coherence factors that accurately capture the azimuthal coherence distribution of the buffetpressures are derived and their impact on the estimated BFFs is discussed. Finally, distributions of the local convection velocity and cross spectrum phase are presented.

buffet↗

Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations of the Transonic Dynamics Tunnel Airstream Oscillator System

This paper presents a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model of the flow in the NASA Langley Research Center Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) with the Airstream Oscillator System (AOS) in operation. The TDT is a continuous-flow, closed circuit wind tunnel with a 16- by 16-foot slotted test section with cropped corners. The tunnel was originally built as the 19-ft Pressure Tunnel in 1938, but it was converted to the current transonic tunnel in the 1950s, with capabilities to use either air or heavy gas (R-134a) as the test medium. The TDT was also fitted with an AOS which can be used to create a gust field in the test section. To date, no computational analyses of the TDT involving the AOS have been performed. In this study, experimental data acquired of an oscillating airstream in the tunnel will be used to calibrate the computational analyses. A significant motivation of this work is to attempt to compare computational gust velocities to those recorded in the TDT literature. In addition to a validation of this model with experimental data, it may also be possible to supplement the experimental data with computational data. The experimental data is rather sparse and at only a few Mach numbers. Computational results may be able to expand the AOS data set. Another motivation for this work is that the Integrated Adaptive Wing Technology Maturation (IAWTM) semi-span model of the high-aspect-ratio CRM with 10 trailing edge control surfaces is currently being fabricated and will be delivered to the NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) for testing in late 2020. Among tests to be conducted, gust load alleviation (GLA) will be demonstrated at transonic conditions using the AOS.

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗

No Clear, Direct Evidence for Multiple Protoplanets Orbiting LkCa 15: LkCa 15 bcd are Likely Inner Disk Signals

Two studies utilizing sparse aperture-masking (SAM) interferometry and Hα differential imaging have reported multiple Jovian companions around the young solar-mass star, LkCa 15 (LkCa 15 bcd): thefirst claimed direct detection of infant, newly formed planets (“protoplanets”). We present new near-infrared direct imaging/spectroscopy from the Subaru Coronagraphic Extreme Adaptive Optics (SCExAO) system coupled with Coronagraphic High Angular Resolution Imaging Spectrograph (CHARIS) integral field spectrograph and multi-epoch thermal infrared imaging from Keck/ NIRC2 of LkCa 15 at high Strehl ratios. These data provide the first direct imaging look at the same wavelengths and in the same locations where previous studies identified the LkCa 15 protoplanets,and thus offer the first decisive test of their existence.The data do not reveal these planets. Instead,we resolve extended emission tracing adust disk with a brightness and location comparable to that claimed for LkCa 15 bcd. Forward-models attributing this signal to orbiting planets are inconsistent with the combined SCExAO/CHARIS and Keck/NIRC2 data. An inner disk provides a more compelling explanation for the SAM detections and perhaps also the claimed Hα detection of LkCa 15 b. We conclude that there is currently no clear, direct evidence for multiple protoplanets orbiting LkCa 15, although the system likely contains at least one unseen Jovian companion. To identify Jovian companions around LkCa 15 from future observations, the inner disk should be detected and its effect modeled, removed, and shown to be distinguishable from planets. Protoplanet candidates identified from similar systems should likewise be clearly distinguished from disk emission through modeling.

Thayne Currie↗

Geology of the InSight Landing Site on Mars

The Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport (InSight) spacecraft landed successfully on Mars and imaged the surface to characterize the surficial geology. Here we report on the geology and subsurface structure of the landing site to aid in situ geophysical investigations. InSight landed in a degraded impact crater in Elysium Planitia on a smooth sandy, granule- and pebble-rich surface with few rocks. Superposed impact craters are common and eolian bedforms are sparse. During landing, pulsed retrorockets modified the surface to reveal a near surface stratigraphy of surficial dust, over thin unconsolidated sand, underlain by a variable thickness duricrust, with poorly sorted, unconsolidated sand with rocks beneath. Impact, eolian, and mass wasting processes have dominantly modified the surface. Surface observations are consistent with expectations made from remote sensing data prior to landing indicating a surface composed of an impact-fragmented regolith overlying basaltic lava flows.

M. Golombek↗

Tropical rains controlling deposition of Saharan dust across the North Atlantic Ocean

Mineral dust plays an important role in the atmospheric radiation budget as well as in the ocean carbon cycle through fertilization and by ballasting of settling organic matter. However, observational records of open-ocean dust deposition are sparse. Here, we present the spatial and temporal evolution of Saharan dust deposition over 2 years from marine sediment traps across the North Atlantic, directly below the core of the Saharan dust plume, with highest dust fluxes observed in summer. We combined the observed deposition fluxes with model simulations and satellite observations and argue that dust deposition in the Atlantic is predominantly controlled by summer rains. The dominant depositional pathway changes from wet deposition in summer to dry deposition in winter. Wet deposition has previously been suggested to increase the release of dust-derived nutrients and their bioavailability, which may be a key contributor to surface-ocean productivity in remote and oligotrophic parts of the oceans.

Mineral dust↗

Estimating the Noise Floor of Sonic Boom Metrics Across the USA

NASA is building the X-59 Quiet Supersonic Technology aircraft to produce low noise sonic booms for a series of community noise surveys across the USA. Survey participants will rate their perception of the low booms from supersonic X-59 flyovers. Several noise metrics are proposed to quantify the noise dose: A-, B-, D-, E-weighted Sound Exposure Level, Stevens Perceived Level, and Indoor Sonic Boom Annoyance Predictor. Sparse measurements across the survey area will be used to estimate community noise exposure. The level of these low booms may be comparable to the ambient noise level in some locations, leading to uncertainty in noise exposure estimations. This uncertainty may necessitate increased reliance on sonic boom propagation predictions for exposure estimation. Low-boom signal to ambient noise ratio is one way to quantify uncertainty in measured sonic boom levels. An empirical relationship between A-weighted ambient level and sonic boom metric levels is used in conjunction with the National Park Service’s L50 SPL map to estimate sonic boom metric ambient levels across the USA. The estimate of ambient sonic boom metric levels will aid in X-59 test planning and execution.

sonic boom↗

Lessons from Earth Bioaerosol Sampling for Venus Habitability & Biosignature Science

Venus’s clouds are often discussed as a potential habitat. Several high-priority science goals – cloud aerosol composition, internal radiative flux, and aerosol residence time and circulation models – will improve our understanding of Venus in an astrobiology context. Lessons from Earth’s aerobiosphere can inform these requirements and interpretation of results. A stable Venus aerobiosphere would need microorganisms to reproduce faster than they settle out due to gravity. This is a joint constraint of the potential nutrients and energy influx, bioenergetic costs such as desiccation and radiation damage, and aerosol dynamics. Though life cycles involving S- and Fe-based redox metabolism have been proposed, at an optimistic estimate of 75% H2SO4, Venus aerosol water activity (aw) is still ~0.02, far below the observed microbial growth limit of ~0.6. Long-term desiccation with brief spurts of repair, growth and reproduction in response to transient water influx (perhaps volcanism) is the most likely model for Earth-like life on Venus – a ‘desert bloom’ scenario. In Earth’s troposphere, clouds can carry 103 – 105 cells/mL, some metabolically active. A better analogue may be Earth’s stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer: supercooled sulfuric acid aerosols (acid weight fraction 0.6 – 0.85, 0.1 – 1 µm diameter, 0.1 – 1 cm-3) with little water activity, long residence times, high UV radiation, and only sporadic influx from surface particle sources. Viable cells isolated from this region are rare (~102 cells/m3), though ‘hot spots’ at tropospheric mixing occur. Cells are primarily in inactive forms such as spores, and it is unclear if any are associated with sulfate aerosols or simply co-located. Given the heterogeneities in Venus clouds and the model of a sparse, largely dormant ecosystem, a single transect on descent would most likely pass through a low-water, inactive region, missing potential signs of habitability or biosignatures. Even a passive aerial platform (balloon) may end up following a single air mass over its lifetime. A better strategy for Venus would target an aerial region with some upwelling from surface sources, and take multiple transects separated in time and space. Earth’s stratospheric bioaerosol population could provide a starting point for estimating the required lower volume and detection limits.

Earth↗

Review: Strategies for Using Satellite-Based Products in Modeling PM2.5 and Short-Term Pollution Episodes

Short-term air pollution episodes motivate improved understanding of the association between air pollution and acute morbidity and mortality episodes, and triggers required mitigation plans. A variety of methods have been employed to estimate exposure to air pollution episodes, including GIS-based dispersion models, interpolation between sparse monitoring sites, land-use regression models, optimization models, line- or area-dispersion plume models, and models using information from imaging satellites, often including land-use and meteorological variables. There has been increasing use of satellite-borne aerosol products for assessing short-term air quality events. They provide better spatial coverage, but currently at the price of low temporal coverage and rather crude spatial resolution. This brief review of using satellite data for modeling short-term air quality and pollution events. The review can be pursued as a practical guide for modeling air quality with satellite-based products, as it includes important questions that should be considered in both the study design as well as the model development stages. Progress in this field is detailed and includes published models and their use in environmental and health studies. Both current and future satellite-borne capabilities are covered. It also provides links to access and download relevant datasets and some R code for data processing and modeling.

Meytar Sorek-Hamer↗

Lessons from Earth Aerobiology for Venus Astrobiology

Venus’s clouds have often suggested as a possible habitat. The constraints governing putative airborne life in such a habitat in turn inform priorities and strategies for remote and in situ exploration, methods by which resulting biosignatures might be detected, exoplanet habitability assessment, and planetary protection concerns. Lessons drawn from studying Earth’s aerobiosphere can help improve this understanding. There are altitude ranges within Venus’s clouds in which temperature, pressure, particle size, and radiation appear to be within the limits of microbial life on Earth, and life cycles involving S- and Fe-based redox metabolism have been proposed. However, given the lack of a habitable surface reservoir, a long-term stable Venus aerobiosphere would require that the reproduction rate of the airborne microbes be faster than the settling rate of airborne microbes due to gravity, or eventually the population would be depleted; put another way, the mean generation time would need to exceed the mean residence time. This creates a joint constraint of aerosol dynamics, potential nutrient availability and energy influx, and bioenergetic costs such as desiccation and radiation damage. Even at an optimistic estimate of 75% H2SO4, Venus aerosol water activity (aw) is still ~0.02, far below the observed microbial growth limit of ~0.6. Long-term desiccation with brief spurts of repair and growth in response to transient water influx, such as from volcanism, is the most likely model for Earth-like life on Venus – a ‘desert bloom’ scenario. Several high-priority science goals – cloud aerosol composition, internal radiative flux, and aerosol residence time and circulation models – thus will also improve our understanding of Venus in an astrobiology context. In Earth’s troposphere, warm water clouds can carry 103 – 105 cells/mL, some metabolically active. However, Earth’s stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer may be a better analogue: supercooled sulfuric acidaerosols (acid weight fraction 0.6 – 0.85, 0.1 – 1 μm diameter, 0.1 – 1 cm-3) with little water activity, long residence times, high UV radiation, and only sporadic influx from surface particle sources. Though ‘hot spots’ can occur associated with tropospheric mixing, viable cells in stratospheric samples are rare (~102 cells/m3), and primarily inactive forms such as spores. It is not yet clear whether such bioaerosols are associated with sulfate aerosols or simply co-located, and reproduction in situ has not yet been observed. In this model of a sparse, largely dormant Venus ecosystem, a single transect on descent is likely to pass through a low-water, inactive region, missing potential signs of habitability or biosignatures. A targeted strategy would sample through an aerial region with some upwelling from surface sources, andtake multiple transects separated in time and space. This is compatible with other in situ science goals seeking to understand the dynamics and heterogeneities of Venus’s clouds.

Lower atmosphere↗

NASA Global Satellite and Model Data Products and Services for Tropical Meteorology and Climatology

Satellite remote sensing and model data play an important role in research and applications of tropical meteorology and climatology over vast, data sparse oceans and remote continents. Since the first weather satellite was launched by NASA in 1960, a large collection of NASA's Earth science data is freely available to the research and application communities around the world, significantly improving our overall understanding of the Earth system and environment. Established in the mid-80s, the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), located in Maryland, USA, is a data archive center for multidisciplinary, satellite and model assimilation data products. As one of the 12 NASA data centers in Earth Sciences, GES DISC hosts several important NASA satellite missions for tropical meteorology and climatology such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). Over the years, GES DISC has developed data services to facilitate data discovery, access, distribution, analysis and visualization, including Giovanni, an online analysis and visualization tool without the need to download data and software. Despite many efforts for improving data access, still quite a number of challenges remain, such as finding datasets and services for a specific research topic or project, especially for inexperienced users or users outside the remote sensing community. In this article, we list and describe major NASA satellite remote sensing and model datasets and services for tropical meteorology and climatology along with examples of using the data and services, in hope that may help users better utilize the information in their research and applications.

tropical meteorology and climatology, data, servic↗

Ensemble Methodologies for Astronaut Cancer Risk Assessment in the face of Large Uncertainties

A new approach to NASA space radiation risk modeling has successfully extended the current NASA probabilistic cancer risk model to an ensemble framework able to consider sub-model parameter uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in a radiation quality parameter) as well as model-form uncertainty associated with differing theoretical or empirical formalisms (e.g. combined dose-rate and radiation quality effects). Ensemble methodologies are already widely used in weather prediction, modeling of infectious disease outbreaks, and certain terrestrial radiation protection applications to better understand how uncertainty may influence risk decision-making. Applying ensemble methodologies to space radiation risk projections offers the potential to efficiently incorporate emerging research results, allow for the incorporation of future (including international) models, improve uncertainty quantification for underlying sub-models developed against sparse experimental data, and reduce the impact of subjective bias on risk projections. Moreover, risk forecasting across an ensemble of multiple predictive models can provide stakeholders additional information on risk acceptance if current health/medical standards cannot be met or the level of knowledge doesn’t permit a specific risk or exposure limit to be developed for future space exploration missions. In this work, ensemble risk projections implementing multiple sub-models of radiation quality, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors, excess risk, and latency as ensemble members are presented. Initial consensus methods for ensemble model weights and correlations to account for individual model bias are discussed. In these analyses, the ensemble forecast compares well to results from NASA's current operational cancer risk projection model used to assess permissible exposure limits and permissible mission durations for astronauts. However, a large range of projected risk values are obtained at the upper 95th confidence level where models must extrapolate beyond available biological data sets; closer agreement is seen at the median + one sigma due to the inherent similarities in available models. Future work, including the addition of new models and methods for statistical correlation between predictive members are discussed to define alternate ways of thinking about risk and ‘acceptable’ uncertainty with respect to NASA’s current permissible exposure limits.

space radiation↗

Ensemble Cancer Risk Model for Astronaut Risk Assessment

A new approach to NASA space radiation risk modeling has successfully extended the current NASA probabilistic cancer risk model to an ensemble framework able to consider sub-model parameter uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in a radiation quality parameter) as well as model-form uncertainty associated with differing theoretical or empirical formalisms (e.g. combined dose-rate and radiation quality effects). Ensemble methodologies are already widely used in weather prediction, modeling of infectious disease outbreaks, and certain terrestrial radiation protection applications to better understand how uncertainty may influence risk decision-making. Applying ensemble methodologies to space radiation risk projections offers the potential to efficiently incorporate emerging research results, allow for the incorporation of future (including international) models, improve uncertainty quantification for underlying sub-models developed against sparse experimental data, and reduce the impact of subjective bias on risk projections. Moreover, risk forecasting across an ensemble of multiple predictive models can provide stakeholders additional information on risk acceptance if current health/medical standards cannot be met or the level of knowledge doesn’t permit a specific risk or exposure limit to be developed for future space exploration missions. In this work, ensemble risk projections implementing multiple sub-models of radiation quality, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors, excess risk, and latency as ensemble members are presented. Initial consensus methods for ensemble model weights and correlations to account for individual model bias are discussed. In these analyses, the ensemble forecast compares well to results from NASA's current operational cancer risk projection model used to assess permissible exposure limits and permissible mission durations for astronauts. However, a large range of projected risk values are obtained at the upper 95th confidence level where models must extrapolate beyond available biological data sets; closer agreement is seen at the median + one sigma due to the inherent similarities in available models. Future work, including the addition of new models and methods for statistical correlation between predictive members are discussed to define alternate ways of thinking about risk and ‘acceptable’ uncertainty with respect to NASA’s current permissible exposure limits.

Lisa C Simonsen↗

Global Evaluation of Terrestrial Near-Surface Air Temperature and Specific Humidity Retrievals from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)

Global observations of near-surface air temperature and specific humidity over land are needed for a variety of applications, including to constrain global estimates of evapotranspiration (ET). Spaceborne hyperspectral observations, such as those from NASA’s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) mission, show promise for meeting this need, yet there are surprisingly few validation studies of AIRS near-surface atmospheric state retrievals. In this study, we use triple collocation to validate AIRS Level 3 retrievals of near-surface atmospheric state over land using twelve years of gridded station observations and two reanalyses. Deseasonalized AIRS retrievals correlate well with deseasonalized ground observations outside the tropics, but correlate less well in the tropics. Lower temporal sensitivity near the surface in the tropics contributes to the lower correlation for near-surface air temperature and is consistent with known physics of the tropical atmosphere, in which temperatures outside the boundary layer (which dominate the AIRS retrieval signal) are poorly correlated with those near the surface. Retrievals in the tropics may also be more susceptible to errors in cloud-clearing algorithms, and to uncertainty in surface emissivity. Since ET is greatest in the tropics, and tropical measurement networks are particularly sparse, this work motivates new approaches for measuring ET in the tropics.

Evapotranspiration↗