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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Machine Learning Techniques for Data Reduction of Climate Applications

Scientists conduct large-scale simulations to compute derived quantities-of-interest (QoI) from primary data. Often, QoI are linked to specific features, regions, or time intervals, such that data can be adaptively reduced without compromising the integrity of QoI. For many spatiotemporal applications, these QoI are binary in nature and represent presence or absence of a physical phenomenon. We present a pipelined compression approach that first uses neural-network-based techniques to derive regions where QoI are highly likely to be present. Then, we employ a Guaranteed Autoencoder (GAE) to compress data with differential error bounds. GAE uses QoI information to apply low-error compression to only these regions. This results in overall high compression ratios while still achieving downstream goals of simulation or data collections. Experimental results are presented for climate data generated from the E3SM Simulation model for downstream quantities such as tropical cyclone and atmospheric river detection and tracking. These results show that our approach is superior to comparable methods in the literature.

Li, Xiao [University of Florida]↗

Phosphorus recycling by mineral-catalyzed ribonucleotide cleavage on iron and manganese oxides

Abstract Phosphorus is an essential element influencing both food security via plant fertilization, and water pollution through excessive phosphorus use, yet the phosphorus cycle in ecosystems is poorly known. In particular, beyond adsorption, the role of iron and manganese oxides in catalyzing the abiotic dephosphorylation of biomolecules is debated. Here, we studied the reactions of ribonucleotides, containing different phosphate bonding, with goethite, hematite, and birnessite. We employed both high-resolution mass spectrometry of solution species and molecular modeling simulations of ribonucleotide-mineral complexes. Results disclose an up to fivefold preferential hydrolytic cleavage of a phosphoanhydride bond over a phosphoester bond, indicating that mineral-catalyzed reactions reflect the hierarchy reported for the activity of phosphatase enzymes. The fourfold higher catalytic reactivity of goethite and birnessite versus hematite is explained by mineral-specific binding rather than surface area differences. Corresponding simulated adsorbate conformations at the water–mineral interfaces are proposed. Overall, our findings provide new insights on the catalytic recycling of organic phosphorus species by mineral oxides.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Climate science to inform adaptation policy: Heat waves over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

Developing a better scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change and climate variability, especially the prediction/projection of climate futures with useful temporal and geographical resolution and quantified uncertainties, and using that knowledge to inform adaptation planning and action will become crucially important in the coming years. Generating such policy-relevant knowledge may be particularly important for developing countries such as India. It is with this backdrop that, in this paper, we analyze future heat waves in India by using observations and a large number of model simulations of historical, + 1.5 °C, and + 2.0 °C warmer worlds. In both the future scenarios, there is an increased probability of heat waves during June and July when the Indian monsoon is in full swing and humidity is high, which makes the heat events even more of a health risk. While the highest temperatures in heat waves may not increase much in future climates, the duration and areal extent of the heat waves will most likely increase, leading to the emergence of new heat wave-prone zones in India. The results indicate that the joint frequencies of the longest duration and large area events could be nearly threefold greater in the + 1.5 °C and fivefold greater in the + 2.0 °C future scenarios compared to historical simulations. Thus, overall, the study indicates a substantial increase in the risk of heat events that typically elicit warnings from forecasters. The likely widespread and persistent nature of heat wave events in the future, as revealed by this study, will require planning and adaptation measures beyond the short-term disaster planning frameworks currently in place. Exploring what these measures might look like is beyond the scope of this study, but it underlines the importance of developing climate knowledge with high temporal and geographical resolution capable of informing adaptation policy and planning.

+1.5 °C and +2.0 °C↗

Characterization of Fe-6Si Soft Magnetic Alloy Produced by Laser-Directed Energy Deposition Additive Manufacturing

Abstract Commercial electrical steels, Fe-Si alloys with < 4 wt.% Si, are inexpensive and efficient materials for electrical power conversion. Further efficiency improvements require increasing the silicon concentration to 6 wt.%, at which point the material becomes brittle and difficult to form by conventional rolling and sheet fabrication methods. Additive manufacturing stands to overcome challenges with commercial manufacturing techniques by leveraging near-net-shape fabrication. The wide array of process conditions provides additive manufacturing with increased flexibility, enabling control over the microstructure and mechanical properties. This work explores the microstructures and magnetic properties of ring-shaped Fe-Si alloys produced using concentric and cross-hatch tool paths on a laser-directed energy deposition additive manufacturing system. Concentric-built samples exhibit elongated grain structures while cross-hatch-built samples comprise lower aspect ratio grain structures. Thermal finite element analysis simulations model the stress conditions produced by the different scan path geometries. Microhardness measurements probe the mechanical properties as a function of anneal temperature, providing a qualitative understanding of the intergranular defect density. Soft magnetic properties measured under quasistatic and AC conditions show frequency- and microstructure-dependent coercivity and permeability. Finally, analysis of the core loss quantifies how the build strategies and thermal treatments influence efficiency in electrical power conversion applications. Understanding the influences of scan path geometry and thermal treatment provides a pathway towards application of additively manufactured soft magnetic materials.

Adamczyk, Jesse M.↗

Reassessing the Climate Change Narrative

Abstract We note that the atmosphere has distinct tropical and extratropical regimes. The tropical regime is significantly dependent on the greenhouse effect and is characterized by temperatures that are largely horizontally homogenized. The extratropical regime is dominated by large scale unstable convective eddies that transport heat between the tropics and the poles (leaving the poles warmer than they otherwise would be) and serve to determine the temperature difference between the tropics and the poles. Changes in tropical temperature and in the tropics-to-pole temperature difference both contribute to changes in global mean temperature. It turns out that changes in global mean temperature associated with major climate change (i.e., the last glacial maximum and the warm period of the Eocene about 50 million years ago) were associated primarily with changes in the tropics-to-pole temperature differences. By contrast, changes in global mean temperature over the past 150 years or so are almost entirely associated with changes in tropical temperature. Thus, there is no intrinsic amplification associated with a change in the tropics-to-pole temperature difference. However, model simulations of climate behave differently from both observations and from each other. In particular, they all show more significant contributions for the tropics-to-pole temperature difference – sometimes much more significant. They also show excessive tropical warming.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Shortened Duration of Global Warming Slowdowns with Elevated Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Continuous emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols in the last 160 years have resulted in an increasing trend of global mean surface temperatures (GMSTs). Due to interactions with natural variability, rates of the combined anthropogenically and naturally induced warming trends are characterized by significant slowdowns and speedups on decadal timescales. In this work, by analyzing observed and model-simulated data, we investigate how the duration of these episodes will change with different strengths of GHG and aerosol forcing. We found that the duration of warming slowdowns can be more than 30 yr with a slower rate of anthropogenic emissions but would shorten to about 5 yr with a higher one. This duration reduction depends on both the magnitude of the climate response to anthropogenic forcing and the strength of the internal variability. Moreover, the warming slowdowns can still occur even towards the end of this century under high emissions scenarios but with significantly shortened duration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity Analysis of an Electrospray Dehumidification System

Electrically enhanced condensation achieved by an electrospray system can enhance dehumidification in HVAC applications if successfully scaled up. The first step towards scale-up is identifying critical design and operating parameters that significantly impact dehumidification for the electrospray system. Sensitivity analysis is one approach for identifying critical parameters. This paper presents a methodology that can efficiently perform quantitative sensitivity analysis on a computationally expensive high fidelity simulation model, which is a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the electrospray system. The methodology employs surrogate modeling and Sobol sensitivity analysis. We estimate the main and total effect Sobol sensitivity indices of four operating parameters of the electrospray system. The results reveal that the most important parameter is the size of the sprayed droplets, followed by the volumetric flow rate of the bulk air and injected water in the system. The water injection velocity of the spray was found to have little to no impact on dehumidification.

Young, David↗

Feature extraction for subtle anomaly detection using semi-supervised learning

The demand for automated and effective monitoring techniques has soared with the increased digitization of industrial monitoring systems. State-of-the-art machine learning methods are effectively detecting abrupt changes in system states. However, these methods lack comparable maturity in detecting subtle changes that may be signs of incipient faults. This manuscript argues that the current anomaly detection methods can be enhanced by exploring weak patterns to enable subtle variation detection. Specifically, the concept of semi-supervised learning is employed, with labels representing knowledge about some anomalous conditions of a system. The basic idea is to extract a candidate set of weak patterns discarded by state-of-the-art baselining algorithms. With few labeled anomalous data, the algorithm selects the weak patterns and allows for their possible fusion using the highest sensitivity to the labeled anomalies. Here, the method’s applicability is demonstrated using a representative pressurized water reactor (PWR) model simulated by Dymola.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Fuel performance analysis of Cr-coated Zircaloy-4 cladding during a prototypical LOCA event using BISON

Here, deformation and failure of chromium (Cr) coated Zircaloy-4 (Zry-4) were studied in loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions using the BISON fuel performance code. The BISON validation model simulating Halden research reactor experiments was extended to include Cr coatings and higher rod internal pressures to simulate high-burnup fuel. The transient simulations show Cr coatings help relieve stress in the Zry-4 substrate during the transient, delaying the onset of high-temperature creep, which leads to ballooning and bursting of the cladding. A nominal Cr coating thickness of 30 µm delays clad failure by 26 seconds and increases the clad burst temperature by 40 K. A parametric study showed that time to failure and burst temperature both increase with coating thickness, and Cr-coated cladding offers burst resistance under a wide range of rod internal pressures simulating high-burnup fuel. Results indicate that a thin Cr coating provides resistance against ballooning and bursting of cladding during LOCA events.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Analyzing at-scale distribution grid response to extreme temperatures

Threats against power grids continue to increase, as extreme weather conditions and natural disasters (extreme events) become more frequent. Hence, there is a need for the simulation and modeling of power grids to reflect realistic conditions during extreme events conditions, especially distribution systems. Herein, this paper presents a modeling and simulation platform for electric distribution grids which can estimate overall power demand during extreme weather conditions. The presented platform's efficacy is shown by demonstrating estimation of electrical demand for 1) Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) during winter storm Uri in 2021, and 2) alternative hypothetical scenarios of integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), weatherization, and load electrification. In comparing to the actual demand served by ERCOT during the winter storm Uri of 2021, the proposed platform estimates approximately 34 GW of peak capacity deficit. These numbers are consistent with state-of-the-art prediction results published in the literature. For the case of the future electrification of heating loads, peak capacity of 78 GW (124% increase) is estimated, which would be reduced to 47 GW (38% increase) with the adoption of efficient heating appliances and improved thermal insulation. Integrating distributed solar PV and storage into the grid causes improvement in the local energy utilization and hence reduces the potential unmet energy by 31% and 40%, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Adaptive primal–dual control for distributed energy resource management

With the increased adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution networks, their coordinated control with a DER management system (DERMS) that provides grid services (e.g., voltage regulation, virtual power plant) is becoming more necessary. One particular type of DERMS using primal–dual control has recently been found to be very effective at providing multiple grid services among an aggregation of DERs; however, the main parameter, the primal–dual step size, must be manually tuned for the DERMS to be effective, which can take a considerable amount of engineering time and labor. To this end, we design a simple method that self-tunes the step size(s) and adapts it to changing system conditions. Additionally, it gives the DER management operator the ability to prioritize among possibly competing grid services. Here we evaluate the automatic tuning method on a simulation model of a real-world feeder in Colorado with data obtained from an electric utility. Through a variety of scenarios, we demonstrate that the DERMS with automatically and adaptively tuned step sizes provides higher-quality grid services than a DERMS with a manually tuned step size.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Observational study of relationships between entrainment rate, homogeneity of mixing, and cloud droplet relative dispersion

The entrainment–mixing process is key to the cloud’s dynamical and microphysical processes. However, to the best of our knowledge, no study has quantitatively linked entrainment rate and homogeneity of mixing. Additionally, their combined effects on cloud droplet relative dispersion and physical mechanisms are even more unclear. This study analyzed the aircraft measurements of cumulus clouds collected in the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems field campaign to identify these relationships. The relationship between the entrainment rate and homogeneous mixing degree was found to be moderately positive, and the underlying mechanisms related to mixing and evaporation time scales and environmental relative humidity were explored. The relationship between relative dispersion and entrainment rate changes from positive to negative with increasing entrainment rate, depending on the dominance of evaporation of large or small droplets. The relative dispersion first increases and then decreases with increasing homogeneous mixing degree, validating the results of previous model simulations. Further, the results shed new light on understanding the interactions between cloud microphysics and cloud dynamics through turbulent entrainment and mixing processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Molecular dynamics study of carbon dioxide and nitrogen selectivity through poly[bis((methoxyethoxy)ethoxy)phosphazene] (MEEP) membrane

Here, a molecular dynamics simulation model was developed to comprehensively understand carbon dioxide over nitrogen (CO 2 /N 2 ) selectivity through polyphosphazene-based membrane comprising of poly[bis((methoxyethoxy)ethoxy)phosphazene] (MEEP) selective layer at the molecular level. The effects of temperature, pressure, and initial feed gas composition on the CO 2 transport on a polymer membrane were studied. The computed free energy and density profile of the permeating gas mixture exhibited that CO 2 molecules express higher interactions with the membrane than N 2 molecules, resulting in higher CO 2 /N 2 selectivity. Statistical analysis of gas molecules (CO 2 , water (H 2 O), and N 2 ) transportation suggested that hydro- and CO 2 -philic functional groups in the membrane significantly impact CO 2 permeability and CO 2 /N 2 selectivity. This study suggested that Lewis acid–base and hydrogen bonding combinations contribute to CO 2 permeation and CO 2 /N 2 selectivity. An equal CO 2 /N 2 selectivity was observed with and without water vapor in the feed gas suggesting that water does not hinder CO 2 transport through the membrane.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Intrepid MCMC: Metropolis-Hastings with exploration

In engineering examples, one often encounters the need to sample from unnormalized distributions with complex shapes that may also be implicitly defined through a physical or numerical simulation model, making it computationally expensive to evaluate the associated density function. For such cases, MCMC has proven to be an invaluable tool. Random-walk Metropolis Methods (also known as Metropolis-Hastings (MH)), in particular, are highly popular for their simplicity, flexibility, and ease of implementation. However, most MH algorithms suffer from significant limitations when attempting to sample from distributions with multiple modes (particularly disconnected ones). Here, in this paper, we present Intrepid MCMC - a novel MH scheme that utilizes a simple coordinate transformation to significantly improve the mode-finding ability and convergence rate to the target distribution of random-walk Markov chains while retaining most of the simplicity of the vanilla MH paradigm. Through multiple examples, we showcase the improvement in the performance of Intrepid MCMC over vanilla MH for a wide variety of target distribution shapes. We also provide an analysis of the mixing behavior of the Intrepid Markov chain, as well as the efficiency of our algorithm for increasing dimensions. A thorough discussion is presented on the practical implementation of the Intrepid MCMC algorithm. Finally, its utility is highlighted through a Bayesian parameter inference problem for a two-degree-of-freedom oscillator under free vibration.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Whole-plant phenotypic engineering: moving beyond ratios for multi-objective optimization of nutrient use efficiency

Nutrient use efficiency (NUE) is typically measured as the ratio of yield to soil nutrient availability but ignores contributions of underlying plant traits. Relevant plant traits can be grouped as root acquisition efficiency, shoot radiation use efficiency, and plant metabolic efficiency. The intentional integration of these traits will lead to synergistic improvements of NUE. Recent progress in trait-focused research includes phenotyping root nutrient uptake rates and respiration, engineering reduced photorespiration, and identification of nutrient assimilation pathways. Traits need to be conceptualized in agricultural systems contexts to improve synchrony of plant demand and soil supply of nutrients, including consideration of crop mixtures. Use of simulation modeling and multi-objective optimization will allow accelerating NUE gains beyond selection for a single ratio.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Atomic structure and grain shape evolution of nanodiamond during annealing in oxidizing atmosphere from neutron diffraction and MD simulations

In this work, real space pair-distribution function (PDF) analysis in conjunction with molecular dynamics (MD) simulations was applied to characterize crystal structure, shape and surface structure of diamond nanoparticles annealed in air up to 880 °C. MD simulated models of individual nanodiamond particles of various shapes and sizes were used to calculate theoretical radial distribution functions G(r) for powders with different grain size distributions. The calculated curves, showing distinct differences for the explored parameter space, were compared to the experimental G(r) functions obtained from neutron scattering for annealed detonated nanodiamond samples in a search for a model best describing the actual powders. It was found that as-synthesized nanodiamond grains are terminated by equally abundant (100), (110) and (111) crystallographic faces and their structure does not change upon annealing in air up to 280 °C. The shape and size of grains annealed above 480 °C changes due to surface etching. The etching rate differs between crystals faces and depends on temperature, resulting in the observed differences in grain shape. Below 680 °C the share of the (110) facets gradually increases and at 680 °C the grains become rhombic dodecahedra terminated solely by (110) surfaces. Further increase of the annealing temperature promotes formation of (111) surfaces and at 880 °C the preferred grain shape becomes an octahedron terminated by a variant of (111) surfaces possessing three dangling sp3 bonds per atom. At lower temperatures all grains become smaller and the size distribution moves towards the lower values. Furthermore, as the annealing temperature increases, the smallest grains disappear entirely and the average grain size grows back.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Unique impacts of strong and westward-extended western Pacific subtropical high on ozone pollution over eastern China

As a subtropical anticyclonic high-pressure system that typically forms over the northwestern Pacific Ocean in summer, the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) affects meteorological conditions and ozone pollution in China. The relationship between maximum daily 8-h average ozone (MDA8 O 3 ) concentrations and the extremely strong and westward-extended WPSH occurred in 2022 is investigated using observations, reanalysis data and GEOS-Chem model simulations. The intensity of WPSH has a significant positive correlation with MDA8 O3 over southern China during July-August in 2022, with a correlation coefficient of +0.44, but the correlation is negative (–0.40) in northern China. During the strong WPSH days, MDA8 O 3 increased by 16.5µgm -3 (16.4% relative to July-August average) over southern China and decreased by 19.0µgm -3 (14.5%) in northern China compared to the weak WPSH days. The unique dipole pattern in the relationship between ozone levels and the WPSH in 2022 exhibited a contrast to that during 2015–2021. The difference is primarily due to the extremely strong WPSH intensity and its unusual westward expansion in 2022. In this case, an anomalous anticyclone at 500 hPa dominates over southern China, which creates conditions conducive for ozone formation and accumulation. The anticyclone weakened horizontal winds and reduced the dispersion of ozone, alongside a high temperature and low relative humidity, which favored the chemical production of ozone. In contrast, abnormal northerly winds enhanced ozone diffusion in northern China and the low temperature reduced ozone chemical production. Here, this study reveals the mechanism for the significant impact of strong and westward-extended WPSH on ozone concentrations over China, emphasizing the role of the WPSH location in modulating meteorology and ozone levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced dynamic equivalent identification method of large-scale power systems using multiple events

The increasing complexity of the interconnected power system makes high-fidelity dynamic simulation models computationally more intensive. To improve computation efficiency, model reduction techniques have been investigated to only preserve the dynamics in a limited area of interest (study area), while deriving equivalent representation for the external area. For this purpose, a measurement-based reduction approach using system identification techniques has been previously proposed. Accordingly, external areas are represented by dynamic equivalent loads using transfer function estimation. In this paper, in order to enhance the accuracy of the reduced model in preserving dynamics of the study area, multiple “grid” events of different types and at different locations are considered for identifying the parameters of the equivalent loads. Additionally, case studies are carried out in the NPCC 140-bus system. Comparisons are made between multiple events training and single event training, highlighting the advantages of the proposed method in providing a better representation of the grid dynamics under different operating conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗