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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Multiscale Land-Atmosphere Interaction in Tropical Ecosystems

A leading source of uncertainty in the magnitude of future climate change arises from feedback between the physical climate system and the carbon cycle. Output from 15 Earth System Models (ESMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) shows that when forced by identical emissions, predicted atmospheric CO 2 concentrations in 2100 ranged from 780 ppm to 1120 ppm due to variations in carbon cycle feedback among the models. The resulting difference in radiative forcing of climate is almost 2 W m -2 , comparable to the total uncertainty in the physical climate system for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario in 2100. Scaling future carbon sources and sinks to match contemporary atmospheric CO 2 reduced this uncertainty by a factor of five, suggesting that contemporary observations might dramatically constrain future predictions, but their scaling had no mechanistic basis, so it provides little insight on carbon cycle processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurements and predictions of flyover and static noise of a TF30 afterburning turbofan engine

The noise of the TF30 afterburning turbofan engine in an F-111 airplane was determined from static (ground) and flyover tests. A survey was made to measure the exhaust temperature and velocity profiles for a range of power settings. Comparisons were made between predicted and measured jet mixing, internal, and shock noise. It was found that the noise produced at static conditions was dominated by jet mixing noise, and was adequately predicted by current methods. The noise produced during flyovers exhibited large contributions from internally generated noise in the forward arc. For flyovers with the engine at nonafterburning power, the internal noise, shock noise, and jet mixing noise were accurately predicted. During flyovers with afterburning power settings, however, additional internal noise believed to be due to the afterburning process was evident; its level was as much as 8 decibels above the nonafterburning internal noise. Power settings that produced exhausts with inverted velocity profiles appeared to be slightly less noisy than power settings of equal thrust that produced uniform exhaust velocity profiles both in flight and in static testing.

Burcham, F. W., Jr.↗

Monte Carlo turbulence simulation using rational approximations to von Karman spectra

Turbulence simulation is computationally much simpler using rational spectra, but turbulence falls off as f exp -5/3 in frequency ranges of interest to aircraft response and as predicted by von Karman's model. Rational approximations to von Karman spectra should satisfy three requirements: (1) the rational spectra should provide a good approximation to the von Karman spectra in the frequency range of interest; (2) for stability, the resulting rational transfer function should have all its poles in the left half-plane; and (3) at high frequencies, the rational spectra must fall off as an integer power of frequency, and since the -2 power is closest to the -5/3 power, the rational approximation should roll off as the -2 power at high frequencies. Rational approximations to von Karman spectra that satisfy these three criteria are presented, along with spectra from simulated turbulence. Agreement between the spectra of the simulated turbulence and von Karman spectra is excellent.

Campbell, C. W.↗

Radiation-Induced Leukemia at Doses Relevant to Radiation Therapy: Modeling Mechanisms and Estimating Risks

Because many cancer patients are diagnosed earlier and live longer than in the past, second cancers induced by radiation therapy have become a clinically significant issue. An earlier biologically based model that was designed to estimate risks of high-dose radiation induced solid cancers included initiation of stem cells to a premalignant state, inactivation of stem cells at high radiation doses, and proliferation of stem cells during cellular repopulation after inactivation. This earlier model predicted the risks of solid tumors induced by radiation therapy but overestimated the corresponding leukemia risks. Methods: To extend the model to radiation-induced leukemias, we analyzed in addition to cellular initiation, inactivation, and proliferation a repopulation mechanism specific to the hematopoietic system: long-range migration through the blood stream of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) from distant locations. Parameters for the model were derived from HSC biologic data in the literature and from leukemia risks among atomic bomb survivors v^ ho were subjected to much lower radiation doses. Results: Proliferating HSCs that migrate from sites distant from the high-dose region include few preleukemic HSCs, thus decreasing the high-dose leukemia risk. The extended model for leukemia provides risk estimates that are consistent with epidemiologic data for leukemia risk associated with radiation therapy over a wide dose range. For example, when applied to an earlier case-control study of 110000 women undergoing radiotherapy for uterine cancer, the model predicted an excess relative risk (ERR) of 1.9 for leukemia among women who received a large inhomogeneous fractionated external beam dose to the bone marrow (mean = 14.9 Gy), consistent with the measured ERR (2.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.2 to 6.4; from 3.6 cases expected and 11 cases observed). As a corresponding example for brachytherapy, the predicted ERR of 0.80 among women who received an inhomogeneous low-dose-rate dose to the bone marrow (mean = 2.5 Gy) was consistent with the measured ERR (0.62, 95% Cl =-0.2 to 1.9). Conclusions: An extended, biologically based model for leukemia that includes HSC initiation, inactivation, proliferation, and, uniquely for leukemia, long-range HSC migration predicts, %Kith reasonable accuracy, risks for radiationinduced leukemia associated with exposure to therapeutic doses of radiation.

Shuryak, Igor↗

Establishing Consensus Turbulence Statistics for Hot Subsonic Jets

Many tasks in fluids engineering require knowledge of the turbulence in jets. There is a strong, although fragmented, literature base for low order statistics, such as jet spread and other meanvelocity field characteristics. Some sources, particularly for low speed cold jets, also provide turbulence intensities that are required for validating Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes. There are far fewer sources for jet spectra and for space-time correlations of turbulent velocity required for aeroacoustics applications, although there have been many singular publications with various unique statistics, such as Proper Orthogonal Decomposition, designed to uncover an underlying low-order dynamical description of turbulent jet flow. As the complexity of the statistic increases, the number of flows for which the data has been categorized and assembled decreases, making it difficult to systematically validate prediction codes that require high-level statistics over a broad range of jet flow conditions. For several years, researchers at NASA have worked on developing and validating jet noise prediction codes. One such class of codes, loosely called CFD-based or statistical methods, uses RANS CFD to predict jet mean and turbulent intensities in velocity and temperature. These flow quantities serve as the input to the acoustic source models and flow-sound interaction calculations that yield predictions of far-field jet noise. To develop this capability, a catalog of turbulent jet flows has been created with statistics ranging from mean velocity to space-time correlations of Reynolds stresses. The present document aims to document this catalog and to assess the accuracies of the data, e.g. establish uncertainties for the data. This paper covers the following five tasks: Document acquisition and processing procedures used to create the particle image velocimetry (PIV) datasets. Compare PIV data with hotwire and laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) data published in the open literature. Compare different datasets acquired at roughly the same flow conditions to establish uncertainties. Create a consensus dataset for a range of hot jet flows, including uncertainty bands. Analyze this consensus dataset for self-consistency and compare jet characteristics to those of the open literature. One final objective fulfilled by this work was the demonstration of a universal scaling for the jet flow fields, at least within the region of interest to aeroacoustics. The potential core length and the spread rate of the half-velocity radius were used to collapse of the mean and turbulent velocity fields over the first 20 jet diameters in a highly satisfying manner.

Bridges, James↗

Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia

Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5’s ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. Moreover, the predictability of SAT during La Niña is comparable to El Niño years over the WSA region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Kibble–Zurek mechanism of Ising domains

The formation of topological defects after a symmetry-breaking phase transition is an overarching phenomenon that encodes the underlying dynamics. The Kibble-Zurek mechanism (KZM) describes these non-equilibrium dynamics of second-order phase transitions and predicts a power-law relationship between the cooling rates and the density of topological defects. It has been verified as a successful model in a wide variety of physical systems, including structure formation in the early Universe and condensed-matter materials. However, it is uncertain if the KZM mechanism is also valid for topologically trivial Ising domains, one of the most common and fundamental types of domain in condensed-matter systems. Here we show that the cooling rate dependence of Ising domain density follows the KZM power law in two different three-dimensional structural Ising domains: ferro-rotation domains in NiTiO 3 and polar domains in BiTeI. However, although the KZM slope of NiTiO 3 agrees with the prediction of the 3D Ising model, the KZM slope of BiTeI exceeds the theoretical limit, providing an example of steepening KZM slope with long-range dipolar interactions. Finally, our results demonstrate the validity of KZM for Ising domains and reveal an enhancement of the power-law exponent for transitions of non-topological quantities with long-range interactions. The Kibble-Zurek mechanism is shown to apply to structural Ising domains in three-dimensional materials. Long-range interactions modify the critical exponents away from theoretical predictions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DNA Break Clustering as a Predictor of Cell Death across Various Radiation Qualities: Influence of Cell Size, Cell Asymmetry, and Beam Orientation

Cosmic radiation, composed of high charge and energy (HZE) particles, causes cellular DNA damage that can result in cell death or mutation that can evolve into cancer. In this work, a cell death model is applied to several cell lines exposed to HZE ions spanning a broad range of linear energy transfer (LET) values. We hypothesize that chromatin movement leads to the clustering of multiple double strand breaks (DSB) within one radiation-induced foci (RIF). The survival probability of a cell population is determined by averaging the survival probabilities of individual cells, which is function of the number of pairwise DSB interactions within RIF. The simulation code RITCARD was used to compute DSB. Two clustering approaches were applied to determine the number of RIF per cell. RITCARD outputs were combined with experimental data from four normal human cell lines to derive the model parameters and expand its predictions in response to ions with LET ranging from ∼0.2keV/μmto∼3000keV/μm. Spherical and ellipsoidal nuclear shapes and two ion beam orientations were modeled to assess the impact of geometrical properties on cell death. The calculated average number of RIF per cell reproduces the saturation trend for high doses and high-LET values that is usually experimentally observed. The cell survival model generates the recognizable bell shape of LET dependence for the relative biological effectiveness (RBE). At low LET, smaller nuclei have lower survival due to increased DNA density and DSB clustering. At high LET, nuclei with a smaller irradiation area either because of a smaller size or a change in beam orientation have a higher survival rate due to a change in the distribution of DSB/RIF per cell. If confirmed experimentally, the geometric characteristics of cells would become a significant factor in predicting radiation-induced biological effects.

cell survival↗

Prediction of Airfoil Characteristics With Higher Order Turbulence Models

This study focuses on the prediction of airfoil characteristics, including lift and drag over a range of Reynolds numbers. Two different turbulence models, which represent two different types of models, are tested. The first is a standard isotropic eddy-viscosity two-equation model, and the second is an explicit algebraic stress model (EASM). The turbulent flow field over a general-aviation airfoil (GA(W)-2) at three Reynolds numbers is studied. At each Reynolds number, predicted lift and drag values at different angles of attack are compared with experimental results, and predicted variations of stall locations with Reynolds number are compared with experimental data. Finally, the size of the separation zone predicted by each model is analyzed, and correlated with the behavior of the lift coefficient near stall. In summary, the EASM model is able to predict the lift and drag coefficients over a wider range of angles of attack than the two-equation model for the three Reynolds numbers studied. However, both models are unable to predict the correct lift and drag behavior near the stall angle, and for the lowest Reynolds number case, the two-equation model did not predict separation on the airfoil near stall.

Gatski, Thomas B.↗

New Constraints on Titan's Stratospheric n-Butane Abundance

Curiously, n-butane has yet to be detected at Titan, though it is predicted to be present in a wide range of abundances that span over 2.5 orders of magnitude. We have searched infrared spectroscopic observations of Titan for signals from n-butane (n-C4H10) in Titan's stratosphere. Three sets of Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer Focal Plane 4 (1050–1500 cm−1) observations were selected for modeling, having been collected from different flybys and pointing latitudes. We modeled the observations with the Nonlinear Optimal Estimator for MultivariatE Spectral AnalySIS radiative transfer tool. Temperature profiles were retrieved for each of the data sets by modeling the ν4 emission from methane near 1305 cm−1. Then, incorporating the temperature profiles, we retrieved abundances of all of Titan's known trace gases that are active in this spectral region, reliably reproducing the observations. We then systematically tested a set of models with varying abundances of n-butane, investigating how the addition of this gas affected the fits. We did this for several different photochemically predicted abundance profiles from the literature, as well as for a constant-with-altitude profile. Ultimately, though we did not produce any firm detection of n-butane, we derived new upper limits on its abundance specific to the use of each profile and to multiple different ranges of stratospheric altitudes. These results will tightly constrain the C4 chemistry of future photochemical modeling of Titan's atmosphere and also motivate the continued search for n-butane and its isomer, isobutane.

Brendan L. Steffens↗

Comparison of theory with experiment in convectionless growth of crystals from solution

Wilcox's computer program for predicting the growth rates of crystals in convectionless supersaturated solution is used to model experiments to measure the crystal growth experiments of Simon (1978) and of Nerad and Shlichta (1984), and the results are compared with the experimental data. The predictions of Wilcox's model are found to be in remarkably good agreement with the results of Simon. The data of Nerad and Shlichta are 30 to 90 percent higher than the predictions of the Wilcox model for a certain range of temperature dependence, consistent with the observation of occasional low-level convection in these experiments. These comparisons indicate that the Wilcox model can be used to make reliable order-of-magnitude predictions of growth rates in the absence of convection.

Schlom, D. G.↗

A Simple Two Aircraft Conflict Resolution Algorithm

Conflict detection and resolution methods are crucial for distributed air-ground traffic management in which the crew in, the cockpit, dispatchers in operation control centers sad and traffic controllers in the ground-based air traffic management facilities share information and participate in the traffic flow and traffic control functions. This paper describes a conflict detection, and a conflict resolution method. The conflict detection method predicts the minimum separation and the time-to-go to the closest point of approach by assuming that both the aircraft will continue to fly at their current speeds along their current headings. The conflict resolution method described here is motivated by the proportional navigation algorithm, which is often used for missile guidance during the terminal phase. It generates speed and heading commands to rotate the line-of-sight either clockwise or counter-clockwise for conflict resolution. Once the aircraft achieve a positive range-rate and no further conflict is predicted, the algorithm generates heading commands to turn back the aircraft to their nominal trajectories. The speed commands are set to the optimal pre-resolution speeds. Six numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the conflict detection, and the conflict resolution methods.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

Measurements of reactive gaseous rocket injector admittances

The paper describes the results of an experimental study of the quantitative determination of the capabilities of the combustion processes associated with coaxial gaseous propellant rocket injectors to drive combustor pressure oscillations. The data, obtained by employing the modified impedance tube technique with compressed air as the oxidizer and acetylene gas as the fuel, describe the frequency dependence of the admittance of the combined injector-combustion process. The measured data are compared with the predictions of the Feiler and Heidmann analytical model utilizing different values for the characteristic combustion time tau sub b. The values of tau sub b which result in a best fit between the measured and predicted data are indicated for different equivalence ratios. It is shown that for the coaxial injector investigated in this study the tau sub b varies between 0.7 and 1.2 msec for equivalence ratios in the range of 0.57 to 1.31. In addition, the experimental data indicate that the tested injector system could drive combustion instabilities over a frequency range that is in qualitative agreement with the predictions of the Feiler and Heidmann model.

Janardan, B. A.↗

Prediction of unsuppressed jet engine exhaust noise in flight from static data

In order to assess the impact of aircraft noise on the environment in the vicinity of an airport, it is essential that a methodology be developed for predicting in-flight exhaust noise from static data. Such a methodology is presented in this paper and is compared with experimental data for several unsuppressed turbojet engines. For each engine, static data over a range of jet velocities are compared with the predicted jet mixing noise and shock-cell noise. The static engine noise over and above the jet and shock noises is identified as 'excess' noise. The excess noise data are then empirically correlated to smooth the spectral and directivity relations and account for variations in test conditions. This excess noise is then projected to flight based on the assumption that the only effects of flight are a Doppler frequency shift and a level change. The effects of flight on jet mixing noise and shock noise are computed by published NASA methods.

Stone, J. R.↗

Cross-scale covariance for material property prediction

A simulation can stand its ground against an experiment only if its prediction uncertainty is known. The unknown accuracy of interatomic potentials (IPs) is a major source of prediction uncertainty, severely limiting the use of large-scale classical atomistic simulations in a wide range of scientific and engineering applications. Here we explore covariance between predictions of metal plasticity, from 178 large-scale (~10 8 atoms) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, and a variety of indicator properties computed at small-scales (≤10 2 atoms). All simulations use the same 178 IPs. In a manner similar to statistical studies in public health, we analyze correlations of strength with indicators, identify the best predictor properties, and build a cross-scale “strength-on-predictors” regression model. This model is then used to estimate regression error over the statistical pool of IPs. Small-scale predictors found to be highly covariant with strength are computed using expensive quantum-accurate calculations and used to predict flow strength, within the statistical error bounds established in our study.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Two-phase choked flow of cryogenic fluids in converging-diverging nozzles

Data are presented for the two phase choked flow of three cryogenic fluids - nitrogen, methane, and hydrogen - in four converging-diverging nozzles. The data cover a range of inlet stagnation conditions, all single phase, from well below to well above the thermodynamic critical conditions. In almost all cases the nozzle throat conditions were two phase. The results indicate that the choked flow rates were not very sensitive to nozzle geometry. However, the axial pressure profiles, especially the throat pressure and the point of vaporization, were very sensitive to both nozzle geometry and operating conditions. A modified Henry-Fauske model correlated all the choked flow rate data to within + or - 10 percent. Neither the equilibrium model nor the Henry-Fauske model predicted throat pressures well over the whole range of data. Above the thermodynamic critical temperature the homogeneous equilibrium model was preferred for both flow rate and pressure ratio. The data of the three fluids could be normalized by the principle of corresponding states.

Simoneau, R. J.↗

Nonequilibrium radiation and chemistry models for aerocapture vehicle flowfields, volume 2

A technique was developed for predicting the character and magnitude of the shock wave precursor ahead of an entry vehicle and the effect of this precursor on the vehicle flow field was ascertained. A computational method and program were developed to properly model this precursor. Expressions were developed for the mass production rates of each species due to photodissociation and photoionization reactions. Also, consideration was given to the absorption and emission of radiation and how it affects the energy in each of the energy modes of both the atomic and diatomic species. A series of parametric studies were conducted covering a range of entry conditions in order to predict the effects of the precursor on the shock layer and the radiative heat transfer to the body.

Carlson, Leland A.↗

Accurate and efficient predictions of keyhole dynamics in laser materials processing using machine learning-aided simulations

The keyhole phenomenon has been widely observed in laser materials processing, including laser welding, remelting, cladding, drilling, and additive manufacturing. Keyhole-induced defects, primarily pores, dramatically affect the performance of final products, impeding the broad use of these laser-based technologies. The formation of these pores is typically associated with the dynamic behavior of the keyhole. So far, the accurate characterization and prediction of keyhole features, particularly keyhole depth, as a function of time, has been a challenging task. In situ characterization of keyhole dynamic behavior using the synchrotron X-ray technique is informative but complicated and expensive. Current simulations are generally hindered by their poor accuracy and generalization abilities in predicting keyhole depths due to the lack of accurate laser absorptance data. In this study, we develop a machine learning-aided simulation method that accurately predicts keyhole dynamics, especially in keyhole depth fluctuations, over a wide range of processing parameters. In two case studies involving titanium and aluminum alloys, we achieve keyhole depth prediction with a mean absolute percentage error of 10 %, surpassing those simulated using the ray-tracing method with an error margin of 30 %, while also reducing computational time. This exceptional fidelity and efficiency empower our model to serve as a cost-effective alternative to synchrotron experiments. Our machine learning-aided simulation method is affordable and readily deployable for a large variety of materials, opening new doors to eliminate or reduce defects for a wide range of laser materials processing techniques.

Computational fluid dynamics↗