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At least 1,261 records · Page 70
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Using feature importance as an exploratory data analysis tool on Earth system models

Abstract. Machine learning (ML) models are commonly used to generate predictions, but these models can also support the discovery of new science. Generating accurate predictions necessitates that a model captures the structure of the underlying data. If the structure is properly extracted, ML could be a useful exploratory and evidential tool. In this paper, we present a case study that demonstrates the use of ML for exploratory data analysis (EDA) in the climate space. We apply the ML explainability method of spatiotemporal zeroed feature importance (stZFI) to understand how climate-variable associations evolve over space and time. Our analyses focus on data from ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs) which provide data on different climate states and conditions. We elect to work with ESM ensembles since they allow us to compare feature importance across alternative scenarios not available with observed data. The ensembles also account for natural variability so that we can distinguish between signal and noise due to natural climate variability when computing feature importance. The use of perturbed initial condition ensembles introduces variability mimicking the natural variability in the atmosphere; thus the signals emerging using feature importance (FI) can be evaluated against the natural variability in the climate system. For our analyses, we consider the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which was a large stratospheric aerosol injection. We explore the climate pathway associated with the eruption from aerosols to radiation to temperature at both the near-surface and stratospheric levels. In addition to applying the method to data generated from two different ESMs, we apply stZFI to reanalysis data to compare the associations identified by stZFI. We show how stZFI tracks the importance of aerosol optical depth over time on forecasting temperatures. This case study illustrates usefulness of an ML tool (stZFI) for EDA on a well-studied climate exemplar.

Ries, Daniel (ORCID:0000000250294647)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations

Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team to climate modelling groups participating in phase 7 of CMIP. For the historical period, we provide two datasets covering 1750–2023: (i) a volcanic upper tropospheric-stratospheric sulfur emission dataset, documented in a companion paper; and (ii) a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset, documented in this paper. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), stratospheric aerosol optical properties are derived from the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) dataset. For the pre-satellite era (1750–1978), optical properties are derived from our volcanic SO 2 emission dataset using a new version of the reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model Easy Volcanic Aerosol (Height) (EVA_H v2). A background, non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1998–2001 period with a trend over 1850–1978 accounting for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. A monthly stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1850–2021 average for both pre-industrial and scenario (future) simulations, with a 9-year ramp over 2022–2030 for scenario simulations to ensure a smooth transition from the historical period. CMIP7 simulations should use version 2.2.1 of our pre-industrial and historical datasets, and version 2.2.2 of our scenario dataset. Our methodology to produce historical aerosol optical properties significantly differs from CMIP6 for the pre-satellite era, and the resulting forcings in turn largely differ. In particular, the CMIP6 dataset was mostly based on the sparse and uncertain pyrheliometer record, which resulted in strongly underrepresented emissions from small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions. The resulting bias is addressed in CMIP7, which is entirely emission-derived in the pre-satellite era and uses more recent ice-core-based volcanic sulfur emission inventories than CMIP6. Our approach results in an overall larger volcanic aerosol forcing for CMIP7, with the 1850–2014 mean mid-visible global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in CMIP7 (0.0138) being 29 % higher than in CMIP6 (0.0107). The pre-industrial mean of the same variable is 26 % higher in CMIP7 (0.0135, derived from the historical 1850–2021) than CMIP6 (0.0107, derived from the historical 1850–2014 mean). Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we simulate a global mean surface temperature that is 0.07 °C colder for 1850–1900 when using the CMIP7 dataset instead of CMIP6, whereas 2000–2014 is 0.03 °C warmer in CMIP7. Our dataset also exhibits lower forcing for 1960–1980, resulting in temperatures 0.06 °C warmer when averaged over 1960–1990, a period for which CMIP6 climate models exhibit a cold bias. Given the large uncertainties characterizing the dataset, in particular for the pre-satellite era, we advise against treating the CMIP7 or CMIP6 dataset as uniquely superior for any specific year and highlight the need for further evaluation. We conclude the study by discussing sources of uncertainty for the dataset, future research avenues to improve it, as well as requirements to operationalize the production of the dataset, i.e. extend it and update it on an annual basis instead of every 5–7 years following CMIP cycles.

Aubry, Thomas J. [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United K↗
DOE OSTI2023

Areal Average Albedo (AREALAVEALB)

he Areal Averaged Albedo VAP yields areal averaged surface spectral albedo estimates from MFRSR measurements collected under fully overcast conditions via a simple one-line equation (Barnard et al., 2008), which links cloud optical depth, normalized cloud transmittance, asymmetry parameter, and areal averaged surface albedo under fully overcast conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Areal Average Albedo (AREALAVEALBYR)

The Areal Averaged Albedo VAP yields areal averaged surface spectral albedo estimates from MFRSR measurements collected under fully overcast conditions via a simple one-line equation (Barnard et al., 2008), which links cloud optical depth, normalized cloud transmittance, asymmetry parameter, and areal averaged surface albedo under fully overcast conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1966

Lower ionosphere at solar minimum.

Lower ionosphere measurements at solar minimum, discussing positive ion density, electron density, solar radiation optical depth, etc

IONOSPHERIC ION DENSITY↗
NASA NTRS1970

Axially symmetric model planetary nebulae

Planetary nebulae NGC 7662 and NGC 7009 axially symmetric models from density distributions, H continuum threshold optical depths and central star temperatures

Kirkpatrick, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Radio astronomy Explorer-1 observations of the Gum nebula

Complicating factors in the spectrum analysis of the Gum nebula are discussed. These include accounting for the spectrum of supernova remnants in the direction of the nebula, the different absorption laws for radiation from beyond and within the nebula, and the Razin effect. This last results in a low frequency cutoff to the spectrum of synchrotron radiation by particles in a thermal plasma. These factors cause the observer to overestimate the amount of absorption occurring in the nebula. Data from the Explorer 38 satellite are presented for 3.93 and 6.55 MHz. Average optical depth for the nebula at 4 MHz was calculated.

Alexander, J. K.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Practical considerations for Abel inverting of photographic data with application to the analysis of a 15-kW wall-stabilized arc-light source

Temperature profiles were measured for agron atmospheric pressure by using absolute line and continuum intensity and were compared with stark width and shift measurements. A detailed analysis of the engineering aspects of setting up for Abel inverting deta photographically is presented. The merits of using photographic detection and of using continuum radiation for temperature profile analysis are discussed. The importance of empirically determining the optical depth is emphasized by discrepancies between measured (two-path) and calculated estimates.

Snow, W. L.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Limits on intergalactic helium from the 3C 273 X-ray spectrum

An X-ray spectrum of the quasi-stellar object 3C 273 in the interval 0.25 to 10 KeV was obtained by sounding rocket observations. The best-fit power law spectrum has photon index n= 1.3 with no photoelectric absorption. An upper limit on the X-ray optical depth to 3C 273 was calculated from the data, permitting upper limits to be set on the absolute abundance of helium in the intergalactic medium.

Margon, B.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Simultaneous measurements of the hydrogen airglow emissions of Lyman alpha, Lyman beta, and Balmer alpha.

Comparison of Lyman-alpha, 740- to 1050-A, and Balmer-alpha airglow measurements made at 134 deg solar-zenith angle on Oct. 13, 1969, with resonance-scattering models of solar radiation. Model comparison with Lyman-alpha data fixes the hydrogen column abundance over 215 km to 2 x 10 to the 13th per cu cm within a factor of 2. Differences between the Lyman-alpha model and data indicate a polar-equatorial departure from spherical symmetry in the hydrogen distribution. A Lyman-beta model based on the hydrogen distribution found to fit the Lyman-alpha data fits the spatial variation of the 740- to 1050-A data well from 100 to 130 km, but it does not fit the data well at higher altitudes; thus the presence of more rapidly absorbed shorter-wavelength radiation is indicated. This same resonance-scattering model yields Balmer-alpha intensities that result in good spatial agreement with the Balmer-alpha measurements, but a fivefold increase in the measured solar line center Lyman-beta flux is required (as required for the Lyman-beta measurement). The intensity ratio of Lyman-beta and Balmer-alpha at night is found to be a simple measure of the hydrogen optical depth if measurements with good accuracy can be made in the visible and ultraviolet spectrum.

Weller, C. S.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Studies of positive-ion composition in the equatorial D-region ionosphere.

Evaluation of two daytime D-region positive-ion composition measurements performed at Thumba, India, for solar zenith angles of 53.2 and 27.8 deg. Comparison of upleg ram with downleg wake data shows a large increase in the concentration of heavy ions 48(+), NO(+) . H2O; 55(+), H3O(+) . (H2O)2; and M(+) greater than 65(+) for the downleg reduced shock condition. Peak concentrations of 48(+) and 55(+) occur at unit optical depth for Lyman alpha radiation. The ion 37(+), H3O(+) . H2O, is dominant for chi = 27.8 deg, but not for chi = 53.2 deg, consistent above 80 km with an origin from the X-ray production of O2(+). Laboratory measurements have shown that the ion, NO(+), can be transferred to heavy hydrates 48(+), 55(+), and M(+) greater than 65(+) by a reaction chain starting with NO(+) + X + M = NO(+) . X + M, where X can be O2, N2, CO2 or a combination of all three, depending on the rate of reaction. This chain, together with a similar reaction scheme starting with O2(+) and ending in 19(+), 37(+), and heavier clusters, is used to provide a consistent explanation for the hydrated ions observed in the D region.

Goldberg, R. A.↗