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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Estimating Watershed Subsurface Permeability From Stream Discharge Data Using Deep Neural Networks

Subsurface permeability is a key parameter in watershed models that controls the contribution from the subsurface flow to stream flows. Since the permeability is difficult and expensive to measure directly at the spatial extent and resolution required by fully distributed watershed models, estimation through inverse modeling has had a long history in subsurface hydrology. The wide availability of stream surface flow data, compared to groundwater monitoring data, provides a new data source to infer soil and geologic properties using integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic models. As most of the existing methods have shown difficulty in dealing with highly nonlinear inverse problems, we explore the use of deep neural networks for inversion owing to their successes in mapping complex, highly nonlinear relationships. We train various deep neural network (DNN) models with different architectures to predict subsurface permeability from stream discharge hydrograph at the watershed outlet. The training data are obtained from ensemble simulations of hydrographs corresponding to an permeability ensemble using a fully-distributed, integrated surface-subsurface hydrologic model. The trained model is then applied to estimate the permeability of the real watershed using its observed hydrograph at the outlet. Our study demonstrates that the permeabilities of the soil and geologic facies that make significant contributions to the outlet discharge can be more accurately estimated from the discharge data. Their estimations are also more robust with observation errors. Compared to the traditional ensemble smoother method, DNNs show stronger performance in capturing the nonlinear relationship between permeability and stream hydrograph to accurately estimate permeability. Our study sheds new light on the value of the emerging deep learning methods in assisting integrated watershed modeling by improving parameter estimation, which will eventually reduce the uncertainty in predictive watershed models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tempering kinetics during multilayer laser additive manufacturing of a ferritic steel

Grade 91 steel forms martensite during additive manufacturing and the extent of tempering of martensite significantly affects the mechanical properties of parts. Currently, there is a lack of quantitative understanding of the tempering kinetics for Grade 91 steel, and as a result, the effects of repeated thermal cycles on properties for different processing conditions cannot be determined. Here we evaluate the tempering kinetics by determining the constant terms in the Johnson Mehl Avrami kinetic equation from the tempering data available in the literature and the thermal cycles computed using a rigorously-tested heat and fluid flow model of multi-layer additive manufacturing. The raw tempering data are cleaned using a neural network to enhance accuracy. The lower layers experience repeating cycles of heating and cooling when the upper layers are added. As a result, the hardness is reduced owing to the tempering of martensite. In contrast, martensite formed in the upper layers is not tempered to the same extent and the hardness remains high. Therefore, the hardness of the part increases with the distance from the substrate. Variations in the heat input at different laser powers and scanning speeds significantly affect the extent of tempering. Finally, since the method used here can provide a quantitative understanding of the tempering of martensite and the spatial variation in hardness, it can be used to tailor the microstructure and hardness of heat treatable printed metallic parts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Toward Transition Modeling in a Hypersonic Boundary Layer at Flight Conditions

An accurate physics-based transition prediction method integrated with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solvers is pursued for hypersonic boundary layer flows over slender hypersonic vehicles at flight conditions. The geometry and flow conditions are selected to match relevant trajectory locations from the ascent phase of the HIFiRE-1 flight experiment, namely, a 7-degree half-angle cone with 2.5 mm nose radius, freestream Mach numbers in the range of 3.8 – 5.5 and freestream unit Reynolds numbers in the range of 3.3 × 10(exp 6) – 21.4 × 10(exp 6) m(exp -1). Earlier research had shown that the onset of transition during the HIFiRE-1 flight experiment correlated with an amplification factor of N ≈ 13.5 for the planar Mack modes. However, to incorporate the N-factor correlations into a CFD code, we investigate surrogate models for disturbance amplification that avoid the direct computation of stability characteristics. A commonly used approach for low-speed flows is based on an a priori database of stability characteristics for locally similar profiles. However, the results presented in this paper demonstrate that the application of this approach to hypersonic boundary layers over blunt spherical nose-tip cones leads to large, unacceptable errors in the predictions of amplification factors, mainly due to its failure in accounting for the effects of the entropy layer on the boundary-layer profiles along the length of the model. We propose and demonstrate an alternate approach that employs the stability computations for a canonical set of blunt cone configurations to train a physics-informed convolutional neural network model that is shown to provide substantially improved transition predictions for hypersonic flow configurations with entropy-layer effects. Furthermore, the excellent performance of the neural network model is also confirmed for cone configurations with nose radius and half-angle values that do not correspond to those used to build the database. Finally, the convolutional neural network model is shown to outperform the linear stability calculations for underresolved basic states.

Pedro Paredes↗

Probabilistic Physics-Informed Graph Convolutional Network for Active Distribution System Voltage Prediction

Here this letter proposes a novel data-driven probabilistic physics-informed graph convolutional network (GCN) for active distribution system voltage prediction with PVs and EVs. It leverages both measurements and network topology to accurately and efficiently predict node voltages without the need for an accurate distribution system power flow model. The dropout-enabled Bayesian inference is developed to achieve uncertainty quantification of the voltage prediction. Thanks to the network model embedding, it also has robustness against topology changes, a key difference with existing machine learning-based approaches. Comparison results with other state-of-the-art machine learning methods on a realistic 759-node distribution system demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve better accuracy and robustness under different scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Gramian-Based Characterization of Network Vulnerability to Nodal Impulse Inputs: Preprint

Impulsive inputs applied at influential nodes of a network system may result in undesirable behavior and degrade performance. This paper proposes the notion of vulnerability matrix (VM) to characterize the effect of impulse inputs on a network following either discrete-time or continuous-time dynamics. The VM describes the first-order effects of impulse inputs on edge flows and is based on the controllability Gramian. We provide explicit expressions for the elements of the vulnerability matrix for the class of directed line networks in terms of the edge weights. Simulations validate our results and highlight the utility of the proposed metric in capturing the transient effects of nodal impulse inputs on edge flows.

controllability Gramian↗

Rheo–Electric Foundations and Engineering of Carbon Slurry Flow Electrodes

Flowable carbon slurry electrodes promise continuous, scalable electrochemical desalination and energy storage when their rheology (flow and stability) and electronic connectivity are jointly optimized. This report integrates six complementary thrusts that we executed under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project: (i) a fast, ex situ, centrifuge-compatible method to quantify pellet (packed slurry) electronic conductivity, with a validated cell constant (“shape factor”) and quantitative structure–property insights for carbon mixtures; (ii) a controlled circulation study showing that peristaltic pumping can irreversibly alter particle size and morphology over laboratory-relevant durations; (iii) development of a miniature jet pump that preserves particle integrity while achieving entrainment ratios of 2–4 at practical flow rates; (iv) a comprehensive mapping of how a representative non-ionic surfactant (Tween 20) collapses the carbon gel network, separating network-percolation losses from intrinsic particle contact resistance; (v) in-situ visualization revealing how gravitational settling and flow-driven mixing compete to control charge transport, with dynamic bed layers preventing saturation while achieving 30-fold local concentration enhancement; and (vi) a simple, widely adoptable fabrication route to structured, gas-nitrided titanium nitride (TiN) titanium current collectors that dramatically lower interfacial losses and enable geometry-driven performance gains. Together, these results provide a coherent toolchain and design rules to accelerate formulation screening, de-risk device prototyping, and standardize characterization for carbon slurry electrodes in flow-electrode capacitive deionization (FCDI), electrochemical flow capacitor (EFC), and related systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Statistically-informed deep learning for gravitational wave parameter estimation

We introduce deep learning models to estimate the masses of the binary components of black hole mergers, $(m_1,m_2)$, and three astrophysical properties of the post-merger compact remnant, namely, the final spin, $a_\mathrm f$, and the frequency and damping time of the ringdown oscillations of the fundamental $\ell = m = 2$ bar mode, $(\omega_\mathrm R, \omega_\mathrm I)$. Our neural networks combine a modified WaveNet architecture with contrastive learning and normalizing flow. We validate these models against a Gaussian conjugate prior family whose posterior distribution is described by a closed analytical expression. Upon confirming that our models produce statistically consistent results, we used them to estimate the astrophysical parameters $(m_1,m_2, a_\mathrm f, \omega_\mathrm R, \omega_\mathrm I)$ of five binary black holes: GW150914, GW170104, GW170814, GW190521 and GW190630. We use PyCBC Inference to directly compare traditional Bayesian methodologies for parameter estimation with our deep learning based posterior distributions. Our results show that our neural network models predict posterior distributions that encode physical correlations, and that our data-driven median results and 90% confidence intervals are similar to those produced with gravitational wave Bayesian analyses. This methodology requires a single V100 NVIDIA GPU to produce median values and posterior distributions within two milliseconds for each event. Furthermore, this neural network, and a tutorial for its use, are available at the Data and Learning Hub for Science.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Learning Optimal Power Flow Solutions using Linearized Models in Power Distribution Systems

Solving nonlinear optimal power flow (OPF) problem is computationally expensive, and poses scalability challenges for power distribution networks. An alternative to solving the original nonlinear OPF is the linear approximated OPF models. Although, these linear approximated OPF models are fast, the resulting solutions may result in significant optimality gap. Lately, the application of machine learning (ML) methods in successfully solving the nonlinear OPF has been reported. These methods learn and estimate the nonlinear control policies using a purely data-driven approach. In this paper, we propose an approach to complements the ML based approach to solving OPF using solutions from known linearized OPF model. Specifically, we use supervised learning to map the solutions of linear OPF to nonlinear control variables. Unlike, the traditional ML based methods for OPF that approximate the full distribution feeder model using function approximation, our approach uses a two-node approximation of radial networks. The proposed approach is validated using IEEE 123 bus test system for OPF solutions obtained using the nonlinear OPF models.

optimal power flow, power distribution systems, su↗

Feature Selection and Inferential Procedures for Video Data [Slides]

With the rise of electronic and high-dimensional data, new and innovative feature detection and statistical methods are required to perform accurate and meaningful statistical analysis of these datasets that provide unique statistical challenges. In the area of feature detection, much of the recent feature detection research in the computer vision community has focused on deep learning methods, which require large amounts of labeled training data. However, in many application areas, training data is very limited and often difficult to obtain. We develop methods for fast, unsupervised, precise feature detection for video data based on optical flows, edge detection, and clustering methods. We also use pretrained neural networks and interpretable linear models to extract features using very limited training data. In the area of statistics, while high-dimensional data analysis has been a main focus of recent statistical methodological research, much focus has been on populations of high-dimensional vectors, rather than populations of high-dimensional tensors, which are three-dimensional arrays that can be used to model dependent images, such as images taken of the same person or ripped video frames. Our feature detection method is a non-model-based method that fusses information from dense optical flow, raw image pixels, and frame differences to generate detections. Our hypothesis testing methods are based on the assumption that dependent images are concatenated into a tensor that follows a tensor normal distribution, and from this assumption, we derive likelihood-ratio, score, and regression-based tests for one- and multiple-sample testing problems. Our methods will be illustrated on simulated and real datasets. We conclude this report with comments on the relationship between feature detection and hypothesis testing methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Truth-Valued-Flow Inference (TVFI) and its applications in approximate reasoning

The framework of the theory of Truth-valued-flow Inference (TVFI) is introduced. Even though there are dozens of papers presented on fuzzy reasoning, we think it is still needed to explore a rather unified fuzzy reasoning theory which has the following two features: (1) it is simplified enough to be executed feasibly and easily; and (2) it is well structural and well consistent enough that it can be built into a strict mathematical theory and is consistent with the theory proposed by L.A. Zadeh. TVFI is one of the fuzzy reasoning theories that satisfies the above two features. It presents inference by the form of networks, and naturally views inference as a process of truth values flowing among propositions.

Wang, Pei-Zhuang↗

A Novel Sliding Mode Network Perimeter Controller

Congestion in urban areas is a chronic problem that faces many US and worldwide cities. It results in inefficient use of the infrastructure as well as increased fuel consumption and vehicle emissions. Congestion is intertwined with delay. Road users waste precious hours on the road, which reduces productivity. Throughout this decade researchers were and are developing tools and systems that alleviate this problem. Network perimeter control is one of these tools that has been studied extensively. It attempts to control the flow of vehicles entering a protected area so as not to reach the congested regime that is pre-determined using the Network Fundamental Diagram (NFD). In this paper, we present a novel and simple approach derived from sliding mode control theory that achieves the desired objective. Its main advantages over other control strategies include but are not limited to (1) ease of implementation, (2) minimal and straightforward model tuning, and (3) high performance. This controller was implemented and tested on a congested grid network. The results show that, the new logic performs as expected, producing network-wide delay savings that are consistent with other control approaches described in the literature. Furthermore, unlike other controllers, we demonstrate that the controller is robust to its hyper-parameter values, making the algorithm easy to implement and calibrate to local conditions. http://pubsindex.trb.org/

Sliding mode control, network perimeter control, n↗

Optimal Operation of Soft Open Points in Active Distribution Networks Under Three-Phase Unbalanced Conditions

The asymmetric integration of distributed generators (DGs) exacerbates the three-phase unbalanced condition in distribution systems. The serious unbalanced operation causes inefficient utilization of network assets and security risks in the system. Soft open point (SOP) is a flexible power electronic device which can achieve accurate active and reactive power flow control to balance the power flow among phases. This paper proposes an SOPs-based operation strategy for unbalanced active distribution networks (ADNs). By regulating the operation of SOPs, the strategy can reduce power losses and simultaneously mitigate the three-phase unbalance of the upper-level grid. Semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxation is advocated to convert the original non-convex, nonlinear optimization model into an SDP formulation, which can be efficiently solved to meet the requirement of rapid adjustment. Case studies are conducted on the modified IEEE 33-node and IEEE 123-node distribution system to verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed strategy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Visual Tool for Assessing Stability of DER Configurations on Three-Phase Radial Networks

Here, we present a method and tool for evaluating the placement of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) on distribution circuits in order to control voltages and power flows. Our previous work described Phasor-Based Control (PBC), a novel control framework where DERs inject real and reactive power to track voltage magnitude and phase angle targets. Here, we employ linearized power flow equations and integral controllers to develop a linear state space model for PBC acting on a three-phase unbalanced network. We use this model to evaluate whether a given inverter-based DER configuration admits a stable set of controller gains, which cannot be done by analyzing controllability nor by using the Lyapunov equation. Instead, we sample over a parameter space to identify a stable set of controller gains. Our stability analysis requires only a line impedance model and does not entail simulating the system or solving an optimization problem. We incorporate this assessment into a publicly available visualization tool and demonstrate three processes for evaluating many control configurations on the IEEE 123-node test feeder (123NF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

High Performance Solution for Security Constrained Optimal Power Flow

Solving the Alternating Current Optimal Power Flow (ACOPF) problem is key to economically efficient and reliable power networks with a good solution potentially saving utilities tens of billions of dollars annually (according to FERC). The Grid Optimization (GO) Competition set up by ARPA-E saw several promising solutions in Challenge 1. While team GOT-TJU-OPF placed top 10 in Division 3 and 4, this was not a satisfactory performance, and the team has identified specific areas to improve and will be adding more members to round out the necessary skills and expertise needed to be more competitive. The team set out for redemption during GO Challenge 2 with an improved High-Performance Solution for Security Constrained Optimal Power Flow. The (renamed) BSI-GOT-OPF Team ended up finishing top 2 overall in the competition. The algorithms developed have potential impacts for the electric power markets that are enormous. Optimal Power Flow technology can be an enabling technology to achieve energy-efficient power grids while enhancing renewable energy penetration, among others.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Adaptation of a software development methodology to the implementation of a large-scale data acquisition and control system

A progress report is presented on a program to upgrade the existing NASA Deep Space Network in terms of a redesigned computer-controlled data acquisition system for channelling tracking, telemetry, and command data between a California-based control center and three signal processing centers in Australia, California, and Spain. The methodology for the improvements is oriented towards single subsystem development with consideration for a multi-system and multi-subsystem network of operational software. Details of the existing hardware configurations and data transmission links are provided. The program methodology includes data flow design, interface design and coordination, incremental capability availability, increased inter-subsystem developmental synthesis and testing, system and network level synthesis and testing, and system verification and validation. The software has been implemented thus far to a 65 percent completion level, and the methodology being used to effect the changes, which will permit enhanced tracking and communication with spacecraft, has been concluded to feature effective techniques.

Madrid, G. A.↗

Physics–Informed Neural Networks of the Saint–Venant Equations for Downscaling a Large–Scale River Model

Large-scale river models are being refined over coastal regions to improve the scientific understanding of coastal processes, hazards and responses to climate change. However, coarse mesh resolutions and approximations in physical representations of tidal rivers limit the performance of such models at resolving the complex flow dynamics near the river-ocean interface, resulting in inaccurate simulations of flood inundation. In this research, we propose a machine learning (ML) framework based on the state-of-the-art physics-informed neural network (PINN) to simulate the downscaled flow at the subgrid scale. First, we demonstrate that PINN is able to assimilate observations of various types and solve the one-dimensional (1-D) Saint-Venant equations (SVE) directly. We perform the flow simulations over a floodplain and along an open channel in several synthetic case studies. The PINN performance is evaluated against analytical solutions and numerical models. Our results indicate that the PINN solutions of water depth have satisfactory accuracy with limited observations assimilated. In the case of flood wave propagation induced by storm surge and tide, a new neural network architecture is proposed based on Fourier feature embeddings that seamlessly encodes the periodic tidal boundary condition in the PINN's formulation. Furthermore, we show that the PINN-based downscaling can produce more reasonable subgrid solutions of the along-channel water depth by assimilating observational data. The PINN solution outperforms the simple linear interpolation in resolving the topography and dynamic flow regimes at the subgrid scale. This study provides a promising path towards improving emulation capabilities in large-scale models to characterize fine-scale coastal processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Subordinated Gaussian Processes for Solar Irradiance

Traditionally the power grid has been a one-way street with power flowing from large transmission-connected generators through the distribution network to consumers. This paradigm is changing with the introduction of distributed renewable energy resources (DERs), and with it, the way the grid is managed. There is currently a dearth of high fidelity solar irradiance datasets available to help grid researchers understand how expansion of DERs could affect future power system operations. Realistic simulations of by-the-second solar irradiances are needed to study how DER variability affects the grid. Irradiance data are highly non-stationary and non-Gaussian, and even modern time series models are challenged by their distributional properties. We develop a subordinated non-Gaussian stochastic model whose simulations realistically capture the distribution and dependence structure in measured irradiance. We illustrate our approach on a fine resolution dataset from Hawaii, where our approach outperforms standard nonlinear time series models.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,SOLAR ENERGY↗