Results for “model interpretability” — Page 70

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Rig Parameter Data Using Drilling Process Modeling Constraints, Volume 4: Utah FORGE Well 78B-32

Drill rig parameter measurements are routinely used during deep well construction to monitor and guide drilling conditions for improved performance and reduced costs. While insightful into the drilling process, these measurements are of reduced value without a standard to aid in data evaluation and decision making. In the main body of this work (Volume 1), a method is demonstrated whereby rock reduction model constraints are used to interpret drilling response parameters; the method could be applied in real-time to improve decision-making in the field and to further discern technology performance during post-drilling evaluations. Drilling parameters are evaluated using laboratory-validated rock reduction models for predicting the phenomenological response of drag bits (Detournay and Defourny, 1992) in computational algorithms. The method presented has applicability to development of advanced analytics on future geothermal wells using real-time electronic data recording for improved performance and reduced drilling costs. A drilling cost model is also used to show the tradeoff between rate of penetration and bit life and the influence on interval drilling costs. Details of the bit specifications and performance are cataloged in an independent volume, documented under separate cover, for each of the four wells, and include Volume 2: Utah FORGE 16A(78)-32; Volume 3: Utah FORGE 56-32; Volume 4: Utah FORGE 78B-32 and Volume 5: Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Rig Parameter Data Using Drilling Process Modeling Constraints, Volume 3: Utah FORGE Well 56-32

Drill rig parameter measurements are routinely used during deep well construction to monitor and guide drilling conditions for improved performance and reduced costs. While insightful into the drilling process, these measurements are of reduced value without a standard to aid in data evaluation and decision making. In the main body of this work (Volume 1), a method is demonstrated whereby rock reduction model constraints are used to interpret drilling response parameters; the method could be applied in real-time to improve decision-making in the field and to further discern technology performance during post-drilling evaluations. Drilling parameters are evaluated using laboratory-validated rock reduction models for predicting the phenomenological response of drag bits (Detournay and Defourny, 1992) in computational algorithms. The method presented has applicability to development of advanced analytics on future geothermal wells using real-time electronic data recording for improved performance and reduced drilling costs. A drilling cost model is also used to show the tradeoff between rate of penetration and bit life and the influence on interval drilling costs. Details of the bit specifications and performance are cataloged in an independent volume, documented under separate cover, for each of the four wells, and include Volume 2: Utah FORGE 16A(78)-32; Volume 3: Utah FORGE 56-32; Volume 4: Utah FORGE 78B-32 and Volume 5: Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Rig Parameter Data Using Drilling Process Modeling Constraints, Volume 1: Summary of Utah FORGE Wells 16A(78)-32, 56-32, 78B-32 and 16B(78)-32

Drill rig parameter measurements are routinely used during deep well construction to monitor and guide drilling conditions for improved performance and reduced costs. While insightful into the drilling process, these measurements are of reduced value without a standard to aid in data evaluation and decision making. In the main body of this work (Volume 1), a method is demonstrated whereby rock reduction model constraints are used to interpret drilling response parameters; the method could be applied in real-time to improve decision-making in the field and to further discern technology performance during post-drilling evaluations. Drilling parameters are evaluated using laboratory-validated rock reduction models for predicting the phenomenological response of drag bits (Detournay and Defourny, 1992) in computational algorithms. The method presented has applicability to development of advanced analytics on future geothermal wells using real-time electronic data recording for improved performance and reduced drilling costs. A drilling cost model is also used to show the tradeoff between rate of penetration and bit life and the influence on interval drilling costs. Details of the bit specifications and performance are cataloged in an independent volume, documented under separate cover, for each of the four wells, and include Volume 2: Utah FORGE 16A(78)-32; Volume 3: Utah FORGE 56-32; Volume 4: Utah FORGE 78B-32 and Volume 5: Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1984

Neutral Atmosphere Properties Determining D-region Electron Densities

The increasing discoveries of various manifestations of meteorological control of the D region ionization and the growth of techniques for its measurement provide a challenge to meteorologists to test their insight into middle atmosphere processes with the physical interpretation of D layer phenomena. Models for ion production due to photoionization of minor atmospheric nitric oxide by quasi-monochromatic solar Lyman-alpha radiation are presented. A ground based measuring technique using low frequency radio reflection heights is briefly described and an approach to the interpretation of data acquired by this method is discussed. It is shown that D region electron density variations can provide an efficient diagnostic tool for the detection of perturbations of the circulation state of the middle atmosphere.

Taubenheim, J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Polar Heat Flow on Io

Recently, Galileo spacecraft data have revealed Io's polar regions to be much warmer than previously expected. This unexpected development came from Photo-Polarimeter Radiometer (PPR) data which show that the minimum night temperatures are in the range of 90-95 K virtually everywhere on Io. The minimum night temperatures show no dependence upon latitude and, when away from the sunset terminator, they show no dependence upon time of night. This is indeed bizarre behavior for surface units which generally had been assumed to be passive with respect to Io's pervasive volcanism. Night temperatures of 90-95 K at high, polar latitudes are particularly hard to explain. Even assuming infinite thermal inertia, at these latitudes there is insufficient sunlight to support these warm night temperatures. Thus, through the process of elimination of other possibilities, we come to the conclusion that these surfaces are volcanically heated. Taking previously passive units and turning them into new sources of heat flow is a radical departure from previous thermophysical model paradigms. However, the geological interpretation is straight forward. We are simply seeing the effect of old, cool lava flows which cover most of the surface of Io but yet have some heat to radiate. Under these new constraints, we have taken on the challenge of formulating a physical model which quantitatively reproduces all of the observations of Io's thermal emission. In the following we introduce a new parametric model which suffices to identify a previously unrecognized polar component of Io's heat flow.

Veeder, G. J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterization and Modeling of Deformation Induced Damage in Titanium Alloys

Over the lifetime of their DOE support, and specifically during the past funding cycle, the PIs have primarily focused on ambient temperature studies of the mechanisms of heterogeneous deformation and shear transfer at GBs. The PIs have developed and applied a broad array of experimental approaches complemented by advanced computational methods and simulations to enable new understanding of GB shear transfer, and a new approach for modeling this behavior at the mechanistic level has been established. The PIs have examined how slip behavior differs on the surface and interior of polycrystals using a variety of approaches. Some of the associated data has been used to generate 3-D models of experimentally-characterized microstructures that both support interpretation of deformation mechanisms as well as reveal where modeling needs to be improved to more closely agree with what is experimentally observed. The PIs progress in constitutive modeling of crystal plasticity has introduced explicit GB resistance to shear that depends on the mutual geometry of active slip systems. This past work places the PIs in a good position to take on the challenges associated with mechanistically understanding the interplay between GBS and slip interactions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Coarse Graining Discrete Element Method Information in Particle-in-Cell Length Scales Using a Machine Learning Approach

This report details the development of a machine learning (ML)-driven framework to coarse-grain inter-particle collision dynamics from high-fidelity Discrete Element Method (DEM) simulations to Particle-in-Cell (PIC) scales for gas-solid systems. Traditional PIC models, while computationally efficient, rely on empirical granular stress formulations that fail to capture the full complexity of collision physics, particularly the heterogeneity in particle dynamics. This study adopts a bottom-up approach, integrating insights from DEM simulations to improve the physical fidelity and interpretability of PIC-scale models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1970

New model performance index for engineering design of control systems

Performance index includes a model representing linear control-system design specifications. Based on a geometric criterion for approximation of the model by the actual system, the index can be interpreted directly in terms of the desired system response model without actually having the model's time response.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1981

Spherical-earth Gravity and Magnetic Anomaly Modeling by Gauss-legendre Quadrature Integration

The usefulness of long-wavelength potential field anomalies in lithospheric interpretation is greatly increased with spherical Earth modeling techniques. Gauss-Legendre quadrature integration is used to calculate the anomalous potential of gravity and magnetic fields and their spatial derivatives on a spherical Earth for an arbitrary body represented by an equivalent point source distribution of gravity poles or magnetic dipoles. The distribution of equivalent point sources is determined directly from the coordinate limits of the source volume. Variable integration limits for an arbitrarily shaped body are derived from interpolation of points which approximate the body's surface envelope. The versatility of the method is enhanced by the ability to treat physical property variations within the source volume and to consider variable magnetic fields over the source and observation surface. A number of examples verify and illustrate the capabilities of the technique, including preliminary modeling of potential field signatures for Mississippi embayment crustal structure at satellite elevations.

Spherical coordinate gravity modeling↗

NASA NTRS1987

Molecular bridge effects on distant charge tunneling

The question arises as to whether different hydrocarbon bridges should give different electron-trransfer rates. This question is answered on the basis of energetic and topological (interference) effects that can be gleaned from one-electron models. A discussion of model compound electron-transfer rates based on this interpretation is given. The approximations implicit in the periodic models used here (and in previous work) are carefully justified.

Onuchic, Jose Nelson↗

NASA NTRS1989

A tesselated probabilistic representation for spatial robot perception and navigation

The ability to recover robust spatial descriptions from sensory information and to efficiently utilize these descriptions in appropriate planning and problem-solving activities are crucial requirements for the development of more powerful robotic systems. Traditional approaches to sensor interpretation, with their emphasis on geometric models, are of limited use for autonomous mobile robots operating in and exploring unknown and unstructured environments. Here, researchers present a new approach to robot perception that addresses such scenarios using a probabilistic tesselated representation of spatial information called the Occupancy Grid. The Occupancy Grid is a multi-dimensional random field that maintains stochastic estimates of the occupancy state of each cell in the grid. The cell estimates are obtained by interpreting incoming range readings using probabilistic models that capture the uncertainty in the spatial information provided by the sensor. A Bayesian estimation procedure allows the incremental updating of the map using readings taken from several sensors over multiple points of view. An overview of the Occupancy Grid framework is given, and its application to a number of problems in mobile robot mapping and navigation are illustrated. It is argued that a number of robotic problem-solving activities can be performed directly on the Occupancy Grid representation. Some parallels are drawn between operations on Occupancy Grids and related image processing operations.

Elfes, Alberto↗

NASA NTRS2020

One Planet or Two Planets? The Ultra-sensitive Extreme-magnification Microlensing Event KMT-2019-BLG-1953

We present the analysis of a very high-magnification (A ~ 900) microlensing event KMT-2019-BLG-1953. A single-lens single-source (1L1S) model appears to approximately delineate the observed light curve, but the residuals from the model exhibit small but obvious deviations in the peak region. A binary-lens (2L1S) model with a mass ratio of q ~ 2 × 10^−3 improves the fits by Δχ2 = 181.8, indicating that the lens possesses a planetary companion. From additional modeling by introducing an extra planetary lens component (3L1S model) and an extra source companion (2L2S model), it is found that the residuals from the 2L1S model further diminish, but claiming these interpretations is difficult due to the weak signals with Δχ2 = 16.0 and 13.5 for the 3L1S and 2L2L models, respectively. From a Bayesian analysis, we estimate that the host of the planets has a mass of M(host)=0.31 (+0.37, -0.17) Mꙩ and that the planetary system is located at a distance of D9L)=7.04 (+1.10, -1.33) kpc toward the Galactic center. The mass of the securely detected planet is M(p)=0.64 (+0.76, -0.35) M(J). The signal of the potential second planet could have been confirmed if the peak of the light curve had been more densely observed by follow-up observations, and thus the event illustrates the need for intensive follow-up observations for very high-magnification events even in the current generation of high-cadence surveys.

Cheongho Han↗

NASA NTRS1977

Flare heating by energetic nonthermal electrons

A model has been developed which includes, in a self-consistent fashion, the energy degradation and attendant bremsstrahlung emission of a high-energy electron beam, heating of a flare plasma by the beam, and subsequent cooling by thermal conduction and radiation. To assist in the interpretation of experimental diagnostics, the model also characterizes the radiative behavior of iron ions present in the flare plasma. Electron deposition is described by the Fokker-Planck equation for an initial power-law particle distribution. Results are presented for the bremsstrahlung radiation emitted by the incident beam as it impinges on the disturbed atmosphere. A comparison is made between direct beam heating and thermal-conduction heating of the flare plasma. The radiation emitted by several selected spectral lines of Fe ions is determined as a function of time during and after deposition

Davis, J.↗

NASA NTRS1971

Ionospheric nf sub H resonances: Frequency shifts versus plasma conditions

The Alouette 2 resonances observed near the harmonics of the electron cyclotron frequency f sub H reveal frequency shifts (relative to the n(f sub H) values derived from model field calculations) which can be interpreted in terms of plasma wave dispersion effects. These effects are observed on the 2(f sub H) resonance when it is near the resonance observed close to the upper hybrid frequency f sub T. The observations suggest that an oblique echo model may be required to give a proper interpretation of the 2(f sub H) resonance. Cyclotron damping can be ignored only when the angle between the propagation vector and the direction perpendicular to the earth's magnetic field B is less than a few degrees for the 2(f sub H) wave, and less than a few tenths of a degree for the n(f sub H) waves with n 2. The negative offset of the absolute value of B inferred from the plasma resonance observations is consistent with expectations based on recent OGO 3 and OGO 5 rubidium magnetometer observations at higher altitudes in the equatorial regions.

Benson, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Cirrus cloud properties derived from satellite radiances during FIRE

The sensitivity of the retrieved cloud properties to the cloud radiative transfer model is explored using satellite data taken during the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE). Several different scattering phase functions are used to create a set of models which relate cloud optical depth to bidirectional reflectance. These models are employed in the analysis of data taken nearly simultaneously from two different satellites over regions containing cirrus clouds. The interpretation of the reflectances using the various models is evaluated through intercomparisons of the results from both satellites and through comparisons with lidar data. The preliminary results indicate that, compared to water-droplet scattering models, ice-crystal scattering models provide a more precise and physically consistent interpretation of visible and infrared radiances for determining cirrus cloud properties.

Minnis, Patrick↗

NASA NTRS1983

Solar maximum mission: Ground support programs at the Harvard Radio Astronomy Station

Observations of the spectral characteristics of solar radio bursts were made with new dynamic spectrum analyzers of high sensitivity and high reliability, over the frequency range 25-580 MHz. The observations also covered the maximum period of the current solar cycle and the period of international cooperative programs designated as the Solar Maximum Year. Radio data on shock waves generated by solar flares were combined with optical data on coronal transients, taken with equipment on the SMM and other satellites, and then incorporated into computer models for the outward passage of fast-mode MHD shocks through the solar corona. The MHD models are non-linear, time-dependent and for the most recent models, quasi-three-dimensional. They examine the global response of the corona for different types of input pulses (thermal, magnetic, etc.) and for different magnetic topologies (for example, open and closed fields). Data on coronal shocks and high-velocity material ejected from solar flares have been interpreted in terms of a model consisting of three main velocity regimes.

Maxwell, A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Best practice reporting guideline for building stock energy models

Buildings are responsible for 38% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and, therefore, pathways to reduce their impact are crucial to achieve climate targets. Building stock energy models (BSEMs) have long been used as a tool to assess the current and future energy demand and environmental impact of building stocks. BSEMs have become more and more complex and are often tailored to case-specific datasets, which results in a high degree of heterogeneity among models. This heterogeneity, together with a lack of consistency in the reporting hinders the understanding of these models and, thereby, an accurate interpretation and comparison of results. In this paper we present a reporting guideline in order to improve reporting practices of BSEMs. The guideline was developed by experts as part of the IEA's Annex 70 and builds upon reporting guidelines from other fields. It consists of five topics (Overview, Model Components, Input and Output, Quality Assurance and Additional Information), which are further subdivided into subtopics. We explain which model aspects should be described in each subtopic, and provide illustrative examples on how to apply the guideline. In closing, the reporting guideline is consistent with the model classification framework and online model registry also developed in the Annex.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Slip Tendency Analysis of Fracture Networks to Determine Suitability of Candidate Testbeds for the EGS Collab Hydroshear Experiment

Experiment 2 of the EGS Collab project is aimed at testing stimulation by hydro-shearing of existing natural fractures, versus Experiment 1, which is focused on hydraulic fracturing a rock mass to enhance permeability. The main criterion for the testbed selection in Experiment 2 is the presence of an interconnected network of fractures, at least 10 meters in extent, and with orientations such that shear slip can be induced at injection pressures less than the minimum horizontal stress (Shmin). The feasibility analysis for this experiment requires a well-constrained stress state along with well-characterized fracture networks. The fracture systems at two candidate locations in the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF), the 4850 Level (number refers to depth below ground surface in feet) and the 4100 Level, have been characterized to different extents. The 4850 Level has a well-characterized Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) from borehole (drilled for an experimental test bed) and drift observations. In contrast, the 4100 level has a fracture network characterized only by observations from the drift wall, which provides little constraint on fracture extents. This paper will present assessments for the interpreted slip potential for the natural fractures at the two locations. Data uncertainties are addressed by performing a probabilistic analysis that takes into account the uncertainty in the stress state, uncertainty in the fracture properties, and preliminary borehole locations. There is strong evidence of shear stimulation of some natural fractures in Experiment 1 on the 4850 level. We use examples of natural fractures strongly linked to shear stimulation in Experiment 1 from multiple monitoring indicators to test the consistency of the stress model and guide the uncertainty interpretation. This analysis is intended to guide the site selection process for Experiment 2 by highlighting the fracture orientations that are likely to be shear-stimulated in a majority of modeled realizations.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗