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DOE OSTI2024

From Simple Labels to Time-Use Integrations: Supporting the Spectrum of Qualitative Travel Behavior Data

In transportation research, applications of travel behavior data collection are context-specific and require different types of qualitative inputs. These inputs can be viewed as spanning a spectrum of user burden and data quality, from simple trip labels to complex time-use surveys. However, each currently active smartphone-based travel diary platform appears to only support one type of qualitative input, and the effort required for customization is unclear. In this paper, we characterize the spectrum by defining four canonical use cases: (i) trip labels, (ii) trip questionnaire, (iii) counterfactual trips, and (iv) time-use surveys. We then outline a mechanism for supporting configurable user inputs on the same underlying smartphone-based sensing mechanism and demonstrate that it can support all the use cases without any code changes. We further demonstrate that the flexible data model that underpins this mechanism can enable real-time monitoring and analysis. Finally, we evaluate per-user data collection and engagement metrics for large-scale deployments of three canonical use cases, spanning 10 programs, 435 users, and 251,041 trips, and a maximum duration of 800 days. Future efforts may support additional use cases through an expanded configuration and provide greater insight into user engagement. We hope that these insights enable the research community to look at qualitative inputs through a new lens and experiment with novel use cases to fill in the spectrum.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Radiative Feedbacks and Their Contribution to the Arctic Amplification Measured by Various Metrics

Arctic amplification (AA), characterized by a more rapid surface air temperature (SAT) warming in the Arctic than the global average, is a major feature of global climate warming. Various metrics have been used to quantify AA based on SAT anomalies, trends, or variability, and they can yield quite different conclusions regarding the magnitude and temporal patterns of AA. This study examines and compares various AA metrics for their temporal consistency in the region north of 70°N from the early twentieth to the early 21st century using observational data and reanalysis products. We also quantify contributions of different radiative feedback mechanisms to AA based on short-term climate variability in reanalysis and model data using the Kernel-Gregory approach. Albedo and lapse rate feedbacks are positive and comparable, with albedo feedback being the leading contributor for all AA metrics. The net cloud feedback, which has large uncertainties, depends strongly on the data sets and AA metrics used. By quantifying the influence of internal variability on AA and related feedbacks based on global climate model ensemble simulations, we find that water vapor and cloud feedbacks are most heavily affected by internal variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Joint Measurement of the 235 U Antineutrino Spectrum by PROSPECT and STEREO

The PROSPECT and STEREO collaborations present a combined measurement of the pure 235 U antineutrino spectrum, without site specific corrections or detector-dependent effects. The spectral measurements of the two highest precision experiments at research reactors are found to be compatible with χ 2 /ndf = 24.1/21, allowing a joint unfolding of the prompt energy measurements into antineutrino energy. This $\bar{ν}_e$ energy spectrum is provided to the community, and an excess of events relative to the Huber model is found in the 5-6 MeV region. When a Gaussian bump is fitted to the excess, the data-model χ 2 value is improved, corresponding to a 2.4σ significance.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

MSU Disentanglement Analysis Software

This software is used to disentangle the forced-versus-unforced components of tropospheric temperature change over the satellite era (after 1979) using maps of surface temperature change as a predictor. In general, the software assembles training datasets (from pre-computed surface temperature trend maps and domain averaged tropospheric warming rates), trains statistical/machine learning (ML) algorithms, applies the trained statistical/ML model to climate model data and observations, and then saves the results. A leave-one-out approach is used in which the statistical/ML models are iteratively trained on (N- 1) climate model and then applied to the remaining climate model (and observations). Each model includes a large ensemble (i.e., >10) of model simulations. The software relies on scikit-learn ridge regression, PLS regression, and neural network algorithms.

Po-Chedley, StephenD↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulated wind speed and initial conditions over the WFIP2 region: Cold-front (D01)

The purpose of this work is to assess the sensitivity of the forecast for turbine height wind speed to initial condition (IC) uncertainties over the Columbia River Gorge and Columbia River Basin for two typical weather phenomena: a local thermal gradient induced by a marine air intrusion and passage of a cold front. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model data assimilation system (WRFDA) was used to generate ensemble ICs from the North American Regional Analysis (NARR) for the WRF model initialization. The simulated turbine-height wind speeds were categorized into four types using the self-organizing map (SOM) technique. This work advances understanding of IC uncertainties impacts on wind speed forecasts and locates the high-impact regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulated wind speed and initial conditions over the WFIP2 region: Cold-front (D02)

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulated wind speed and initial conditions over the WFIP2 region: Sea-breeze (D01)

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulated wind speed and initial conditions over the WFIP2 region: Sea-breeze (D02)

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1987

The validation of numerical computations

Information is given in viewgraph form on the validation of computational fluid dynamics codes. Topics covered include the types of validation required, aerodynamic heating to a slender 5 degree cone, heat transfer on cones with isentropic compression surfaces, the validation of turbulence data, modeling of thermodynamic and transport properties, real gas code validation, the Flight Dynamics Laboratory validation efforts, and reacting gas experimental data in low density flow.

Buck, Melvin L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Goddard Conference on Mass Storage Systems and Technologies, Volume 1

Copies of nearly all of the technical papers and viewgraphs presented at the Goddard Conference on Mass Storage Systems and Technologies held in Sep. 1992 are included. The conference served as an informational exchange forum for topics primarily relating to the ingestion and management of massive amounts of data and the attendant problems (data ingestion rates now approach the order of terabytes per day). Discussion topics include the IEEE Mass Storage System Reference Model, data archiving standards, high-performance storage devices, magnetic and magneto-optic storage systems, magnetic and optical recording technologies, high-performance helical scan recording systems, and low end helical scan tape drives. Additional topics addressed the evolution of the identifiable unit for processing purposes as data ingestion rates increase dramatically, and the present state of the art in mass storage technology.

Kobler, Ben↗

NASA NTRS2003

Chemical Data Assimilation: A Case Study of Solar Occultation Data From the Atlas 1 Mission of the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy Experiment

A key advantage of using data assimilation is the propagation of information from data-rich regions to data-poor regions, which is particularly relevant to the use of solar occultation data such as from ATMOS. For the first time an in depth uncertainty analyses is included in a photochemical model-data intercomparison including observation, representativeness, and theoretical uncertainty. Chemical data assimilation of solar occultation measurements can be used to reconstruct full diurnal cycles and to evaluate their chemical self-consistency. This paper considers as an example the measurements made by the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy Experiment (ATMOS) instrument Atlas-1 during March 1992 for a vertical profile flow tracking coordinates at an equivalent PV latitude of 38 S. ATMOS was chosen because it simultaneously observes several species. This equivalent PV latitude was chosen as it was where ATMOS n observed the atmosphere's composition over the largest range of altitudes. A single vertical profile was used so that the detailed diurnal information that assimilation utilizes could be highlighted. There is generally good self-consistency between the ATMOS Atlas-1 observations and photochemical theory.

Lary, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Performance of the IRI-2007 and SAMI2 Models during Extreme Solar Minimum

During the recent solar minimum, solar activity reached the lowest levels observed during the space age. This extremely low solar activity has accompanied a number of unexpected observations in the Earth's ionosphere and thermosphere when compared to previous solar minima. Among these is the fact that the ionosphere is significantly contracted beyond expectations based on empirical models. Data from the CINDI instrument on board C/NOFS is used to evaluate the performance of the IRI-2007 and SAMI2 models during the deepest part of the minimum. Additionally, the inputs to SAMI2 are modified in order to estimate the contributions of a contracted thermosphere and reduced EUV on the resultant ionosphere.

Klenzing, J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using Machine Learning to Predict Future Temperature Outputs in Geothermal Systems

Optimizing the power output, and economic value, of geothermal power plants over decades of operation is a major challenge in renewable energy. Optimizing the output requires the ability to predict the mass flow rates and the output temperatures of production wells based on the inputs of injection wells, as well as the time history of the system. Machine Learning (ML) that incorporates the known physics of geothermal systems is one possible solution to this challenge. In this work, we explore the ability of ML algorithms to predict future temperature outputs based on historical data. Considering the challenges with obtaining an empirical dataset from field data that is large enough to enable reliable ML, we propose an alternate approach: developing a high-fidelity reservoir model and using computational resources to build a dataset that enables ML. As a first step towards achieving this goal, we present preliminary results from applying ML to predict the temperature timeseries of simple modeled geothermal systems. We describe the application of relevant state-of-the-art ML approaches, such as the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), to extract temporal structures in the model data. We assess the accuracy of the forecasts we obtain, compare the selected approaches, and share the lessons learned that would inform the process of training and utilizing ML algorithms for larger and more complex geothermal systems.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data From: "Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater"

This repository contains the data and code associated with the paper titled "Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater," published in Nature Geoscience, 2026. This study seeks to answer how various ages of groundwater interact with mountainous streamflow in mountainous headwaters such as the East River. It includes various model-data processing scripts, primarily for ParFlow-CLM analysis of simulated water years 2015-2021, and two numerical warming experiments (+2.5 and +4.0 degrees C), including run scripts, forcing scripts, and post-processing, as well as comparison to observation datasets, detailed below. This data requires the use of R (.r, .rmd), Python (.py), Jupyter Notebook or Jupyter Lab (.ipynb), ParFLOW-CLM, EcoSLIM. Further information on the use of all file formats mentioned below (e.g. .tff. .nc) are provided within the associated scripts and directory where the files are located. Contents & Usage ASO/: Contains the bash and python scripts used to convert airborne snow observatory (ASO) data (ASO, 2023) in various data formats (georeferenced tiff file, NetCDF, UTM, and to latitude/longitude) then regrided to the ParFlow equivalent grid. Output data are in regrid_regll_data.zip and subsequently visualized and analyzed in plot_and_compare.py for Supplementary Figures A14 and A15. The wksht_ASO_comparison.xlsx spreadsheet is used to calculate the data for Supplementary Figure A16. EcoSLIM/: Contains the scripts and input files to run the EcoSLIM particle tracking simulations (/run_scripts) and the post-processing python script (/plot_scripts/eco_agedist_plots.ipynb). Jasechko et al./: Contains the jupyter notebook (Extract_Elevation.ipynb) to determine the outlet elevations of the 260 watersheds used in Jasechko et al. (2016), and the corresponding table, Table_S1_Watersheds_alt.csv. Used to create Supplementary Information Figure A2. PLM_Wells/: Contains the QA/QC-ed groundwater level time series of the PLM-1 and PLM-6 Monitoring Wells from Faybishenko et al. (2023), reformatted to water years used for Supplementary Figures A19 and and A20. ParFlow/: Contains the input files and run scripts to run ParFlow-CLM (/run_scripts), the python and tool command language (Tcl) scripts to create and distribute the ParFlow forcing simulation files (/forcing), and various scripts and intermediary files to analyze the model outputs (/post_process). SQUIRE/: Contains the processing scripts and intermediary files for the Surface QUantitatIve pRecipitation Estimation (SQUIRE) data (Grover, 2023) used to generate Supplementary Figure A18. USGS_Streamflow/: Contains the raw and gap-filled United States Geological Survey streamflow data (U.S. Geological Survey, 2026) used at the Almont station (site number 09112500). Gap-filling is performed in the R script with data from the Taylor station (site number 09110000). (/USGS_09112500_EAST_RIVER_AT_ALMONT_GAP_FILLED/code_almont_streamflow_gap_fill.Rmd). discharge/: Contains the gap-filled discharge data at the Watershed Function SFA East River pumphouse site (Newcomer et al., 2022) used to generate Supplementary Figure A13 and to compute hourly Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients (NSE) in Table A4. snotel_and_flux_tower/: Contains the snow telemetry data (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024) from the Butte (site ID 380) and Schofield (site ID 737) stations, reformatted by water year, accessed with the snotelr R package. Used to create Supplementary Figure A17. Also contains the flux tower observational data (FluxTower_Pumphouse_ESS-DIVE.ET_only.h.txt) from Ryken et al. (2022) and sap flux transpiration data (MaxB_Transpiration_5Sites.daily_sums.h.txt) from Ryken (2021), used to create Supplementary Figures A22 and A23, respectively. Raw EcoSLIM model outputs are in excess of 24TB, and are stored on National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) and publicly available via the external link provided in the paper.

atmospheric warming↗

NASA NTRS2014

Local ISM 3D Distribution and Soft X-ray Background Inferences for Nearby Hot Gas

Three-dimensional (3D) interstellar medium (ISM) maps can be used to locate not only interstellar (IS) clouds, but also IS bubbles between the clouds that are blown by stellar winds and supernovae, and are filled by hot gas. To demonstrate this, and to derive a clearer picture of the local ISM, we compare our recent 3D IS dust distribution maps to the ROSAT diffuse Xray background maps after removal of heliospheric emission. In the Galactic plane, there is a good correspondence between the locations and extents of the mapped nearby cavities and the soft (0.25 keV) background emission distribution, showing that most of these nearby cavities contribute to this soft X-ray emission. Assuming a constant dust to gas ratio and homogeneous 106 K hot gas filling the cavities, we modeled in a simple way the 0.25 keV surface brightness along the Galactic plane as seen from the Sun, taking into account the absorption by the mapped clouds. The data-model comparison favors the existence of hot gas in the solar neighborhood, the so-called Local Bubble (LB). The inferred mean pressure in the local cavities is found to be approx.9,400/cu cm K, in agreement with previous studies, providing a validation test for the method. On the other hand, the model overestimates the emission from the huge cavities located in the third quadrant. Using CaII absorption data, we show that the dust to CaII ratio is very small in those regions, implying the presence of a large quantity of lower temperature (non-X-ray emitting) ionized gas and as a consequence a reduction of the volume filled by hot gas, explaining at least part of the discrepancy. In the meridian plane, the two main brightness enhancements coincide well with the LB's most elongated parts and chimneys connecting the LB to the halo, but no particular nearby cavity is found towards the enhancement in the direction of the bright North Polar Spur (NPS) at high latitude. We searched in the 3D maps for the source regions of the higher energy (0.75 keV) enhancements in the fourth and first quadrants. Tunnels and cavities are found to coincide with the main bright areas, however no tunnel nor cavity is found to match the low-latitude b > or approx. 8deg, brightest part of the NPS. In addition, the comparison between the 3D maps and published spectral data favors a NPS central source region location beyond 230 pc, i.e. at larger distance than usually considered. Those examples illustrate the potential use of more detailed 3D distributions of the nearby ISM for the interpretation of the diffuse soft X-ray background.

Xray Emission↗

NASA NTRS1994

Operations for Learning with Graphical Models

This paper is a multidisciplinary review of empirical, statistical learning from a graphical model perspective. Well-known examples of graphical models include Bayesian net- works, directed graphs representing a Markov chain, and undirected networks representing a Markov field. These graphical models are extended to model data analysis and empirical learning using the notation of plates. Graphical operations for simplifying and manipulating a problem are provided including decomposition, differentiation, and the manipulation of probability models from the exponential family. These operations adapt existing techniques from statistics and automatic differentiation to graphs. Two standard algorithm schemes for learning are reviewed in a graphical framework: Gibbs sampling and the expectation maximization algorithm. Some algorithms are developed in this graphical framework including a generalized version of linear regression, techniques for feed-forward networks, and learning Gaussian and discrete Bayesian networks from data. The paper concludes by sketching some implications for data analysis and summarizing some popular algorithms that fall within the framework presented. The main original contributions here are the decomposition techniques and the demonstration that graphical models provide a framework for understanding and developing complex learning algorithms.

Buntine, Wray L.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Heterogeneity and Chemical Reactivity of the Remote Troposphere Defined By Aircraft Measurements - Corrected

The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission built a photochemical climatology of air parcels based on in situ measurements with the NASA DC-8 aircraft along objectively planned profiling transects through the middle of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. In this paper we present and analyze a data set of 10 s (2 km) merged and gap-filled observations of the key reactive species driving the chemical budgets of O3 and CH4 (O3, CH4, CO, H2O, HCHO, H2O2, CH3OOH, C2H6, higher alkanes, alkenes, aromatics, NOx, HNO3, HNO4, peroxyacetyl nitrate, and other organic nitrates), consisting of 146 494 distinct air parcels from ATom deployments 1 through 4. Six models calculated the O3 and CH4 photochemical tendencies from this modeling data stream for ATom 1. We find that 80 %–90 % of the total reactivity lies in the top 50 % of the parcels and 25 %–35 % in the top 10 %, supporting previous model-only studies that tropospheric chemistry is driven by a fraction of all the air. Surprisingly, the probability densities of species and reactivities averaged on a model scale (100 km) differ only slightly from the 2 km ATom 10 s data, indicating that much of the heterogeneity in tropospheric chemistry can be captured with current global chemistry models. Comparing the ATom reactivities over the tropical oceans with climatological statistics from six global chemistry models, we find generally good agreement with the reactivity rates for O3 and CH4. Models distinctly underestimate O3 production below 2 km relative to the mid-troposphere, and this can be traced to lower NOx levels than observed. Attaching photochemical reactivities to measurements of chemical species allows for a richer, yet more constrained-to-what-matters, set of metrics for model evaluation.

Tropospheric Chemistry↗

NASA NTRS1981

A study of the longevity and operational reliability of Goddard Spacecraft, 1960-1980

Compiled data regarding the design lives and lifetimes actually achieved by 104 orbiting satellites launched by the Goddard Spaceflight Center between the years 1960 and 1980 is analyzed. Historical trends over the entire 21 year period are reviewed, and the more recent data is subjected to an examination of several key parameters. An empirical reliability function is derived, and compared with various mathematical models. Data from related studies is also discussed. The results provide insight into the reliability history of Goddard spacecraft an guidance for estimating the reliability of future programs.

Shockey, E. F.↗