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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

Coupling High-Throughput Experiments and Regression Algorithms to Optimize PGM-Free ORR Electrocatalyst Synthesis

Over the past decades, significant improvement has been achieved in the performance of platinum group metal-free (PGM-free) materials as an alternative to Pt-based electrocatalysts for oxygen reduction reaction (ORR). However, further progress in ORR activity requires evaluation of precursors and synthesis approaches. In response to this challenge, we generated a first of its kind experimental data set of 36 samples using high-throughput synthesis and activity measurements. Several control parameters (e.g., Fe precursor identity, the precursor content, and pyrolysis temperature) were varied. We then developed several state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) based regression models to predict ORR activity, dependent on selected synthesis variables. Through an iterative algorithm, higher prediction accuracy (smaller root-mean-square error) was achieved. We identified that gradient boosting regression (GBR) and support vector regression (SVR), among several methods, work best for this data set. Aided by our ML-based surrogate models, we decided to alter catalyst synthesis conditions, which resulted in a 36% increase in measured ORR activity in comparison to the maximum ORR mass activity value of 21.9 A/g catalyst in the original data set. Overall, this combined experiment and machine learning approach represents a promising path forward toward developing highly efficient next-generation ORR electrocatalysts and, more generally, functional materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Observing Quantum Measurement Collapse as a Learnability Phase Transition

During a quantum measurement, superpositions of states with different observable properties probabilistically collapse into one with a sharp value of the measured observable. In macroscopic quantum systems, this collapse arises via a continuous measurement-induced phase transition (MIPT) at a critical value of the strength of interaction with the measurement apparatus. MIPTs lie outside established paradigms for equilibrium or nonequilibrium critical phenomena and delineate distinct, stable dynamical and computational phases of matter. Quantum computers enable programmable simulation of the interaction of a measurement apparatus with a dynamical quantum system, to explore MIPT phenomena over a range of system sizes while retaining quantum coherence. Yet, existing experimental protocols rely on fundamentally nonscalable postselection techniques or direct classical simulation of quantum circuits. Here, we report the scalable observation of finite-size scaling evidence for an observable-sharpening MIPT in monitored quantum circuits in a chain of Yb + 171 ions in Quantinuum’s H1-1 trapped-ion quantum processor. By leveraging an equivalent description as a statistical physics problem, we implement scalable classical algorithms to infer the value of the measured observable from a single experimental shot. This technique enables a truly scalable protocol to observe observable-sharpening MIPTs in generic classes of circuits that cannot be directly classically simulated and also provides enhanced means to detect and suppress errors in the quantum simulation. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reduced Order Modeling conditioned on monitored features for response and error bounds estimation in engineered systems

Reduced Order Models (ROMs) form essential tools across engineering domains by virtue of their function as surrogates for computationally intensive digital twinning simulators. Although purely data-driven methods are available for ROM construction, schemes that allow to retain a portion of the physics tend to enhance the interpretability and generalization of ROMs. However, physics-based techniques can adversely scale when dealing with nonlinear systems that feature parametric dependencies. This study introduces a generative physics-based ROM that is suited for nonlinear systems with parametric dependencies and is additionally able to provide numerical error bounds associated with the respective estimates. A main contribution of this work is the conditioning of these parametric ROMs to features that can be derived from monitoring measurements, feasibly in an online fashion. This is contrary to most existing ROM schemes, which remain restricted to the prescription of the physics-based, and usually a priori unknown, system parameters. Our work utilizes conditional Variational Autoencoders to continuously map the required reduction bases to a feature vector extracted from limited output measurements, while additionally allowing for a probabilistic assessment of the ROM-estimated Quantities of Interest. An auxiliary task using a neural network-based parametrization of suitable probability distributions is introduced to re-establish the link with physical model parameters. We verify the proposed scheme on a series of simulated case studies incorporating effects of geometric and material nonlinearity under parametric dependencies related to system properties and input load characteristics.

Conditional VAEs↗

DOE OSTI2026

Automated Classification of Vehicle Movements at Signalized Intersections Using Vehicle Trajectories

Accurate vehicle movement classification through signalized intersections is of paramount importance to the analysis of intersection performance and the optimization of traffic control strategies. Conventional techniques for tracking vehicle turning movements depend on infrastructure-based strategies like human counts, loop detectors, and video analytics, all of which are costly, prone to errors, and spatially constrained. High-frequency trajectory data can be utilized to determine vehicle movement patterns in a scalable and infrastructure-independent method due to the adoption of connected vehicles (CVs). In recent years, several studies have utilized connected vehicle data to generate performance measures. Most of the trajectory-based performance measures approaches, however, require map matching-i.e., extracting geospatial references from maps to identify the movements that individual vehicles make at a signalized intersection. These approaches are often time-consuming and hinder scalability since geographic features need to be provided for an analysis to be conducted. Map matching methods are prone to errors as different map versions change these geographic features. This research presents a novel automatic classification pipeline that uses CV trajectory data to classify vehicle movements at signalized crossings, specifically pass-through left-turn and right-turn maneuvers. The process starts by filtering trips that cross a spatial bounding box that has been defined at the target intersection. Approach and departure headings for each trajectory crossing the boundary are computed and are clustered together to identify dominant movements. The proposed algorithm is used to classify the movement of vehicles at 10 intersections in the state of California, and the results indicate that the algorithm can classify movements at these intersections with varying traffic volumes and road network configurations, all in a map-less framework with no need for conflation of vehicle trajectories to a digital base map.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Path-Integrated X-Ray Images for Multi-Surface Digital Image Correlation (PI-DIC)

X-ray imaging offers unique possibilities for Digital Image Correlation (DIC), opening the door for full-field deformation measurements of a test article in complex environments where optical DIC suffers severe biases or is impossible. While X-ray DIC has been performed in the past with standard DIC codes designed for optical images, the path-integrated nature of X-ray images places constraints on the experimental setup, predominantly that only a single surface of interest moves/deforms. These requirements are difficult to realize for many practical situations and limit the amount of information that can be garnered in a single test. Other X-ray based diagnostics such as Digital Volume Correlation (DVC) and Projection DVC (P-DVC) overcome these obstacles, but DVC is limited to quasi-static tests, and both DVC and P-DVC necessitate high-resolution computed tomography (CT) scan(s) and often require a potentially invasive pattern throughout the volume of the specimen. Here this work presents a novel approach to measure time-resolved displacements and strains on multiple surfaces from a single series of 2D, path-integrated (PI) X-ray images, called PI-DIC. The principle of optical flow or conservation of intensity—the foundation of DIC—was reframed for path-integrated images, for an exemplar setup comprised of two plates moving and deforming independently. Synthetic images were generated for rigid translations, rigid rotations, and uniform stretches, where each plate underwent a unique motion/deformation. Experimental specimens were fabricated (either an aluminum plate with tantalum features or a plastic plate with steel features) and the two specimens were independently translated. PI-DIC was successfully demonstrated with the synthetic images and validated with the experimental images. Prescribed displacements were recovered for each plate from the single set of path-integrated, deformed images. Errors were approximately 0.02 px for the synthetic images with 1.5% image noise, and 0.05 px for the experimental images. These results provide the foundation for PI-DIC to measure motion and deformation of multiple, independent surfaces with subpixel accuracy from a single series of path-integrated X-ray images.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of Corn Latent Heat Flux from High Resolution Thermal Imagery

Crop evapotranspiration (ET), which is directly related to latent heat flux, is also a key indicator in determining the water status of crops. In order to estimate the latent heat flux, two-source energy balance (TSEB) models have been developed for thermal imagery from satellite platforms. However, because of the coarse resolution of thermal sensors on the satellite, distinguishing soil and vegetation is difficult which complicates the calculation process and introduces errors in latent heat estimates. In this research, high-resolution thermal datasets (0.05 m) and corresponding RGB datasets (0.03 m) were used for calculating crop latent heat flux using an adapted TSEB model. The RGB datasets were used for supervised classification of soil and vegetation, and the classification results were then used to filter the thermal mosaics to separate vegetation and soil temperatures. The vegetation temperature is used for calculating latent heat flux and the results are validated against the ground reference measurements of latent heat using a handheld porometer. The objective of this research is to introduce a workflow including an adapted TSEB model which is customized for high resolution thermal images from unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) to estimate the latent heat flux of row crops in agricultural fields. Nine dates of data collection in 2018 and 2020 have been evaluated and the root mean square error (RMSE) varies between 16 to 106 W/m2 depending on the days after planting (DAP) and the time of measurement for each day. The results indicate that the workflow introduced here is able to provide estimates of instantaneous latent heat flux (evapotranspiration) measurements for row crops in agricultural fields which will enable people to make reliable decisions related to irrigation scheduling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Redshift-space streaming velocity effects on the Lyman- α forest baryon acoustic oscillation scale

The baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) scale acts as a standard ruler for measuring cosmological distances and has therefore emerged as a leading probe of cosmic expansion history. However, any physical effect that alters the length of the ruler can lead to a bias in our determination of distance and expansion rate. One of these physical effects is the streaming velocity, the relative velocity between baryons and dark matter in the early Universe, which couples to the BAO scale due to their common origin in acoustic waves at recombination. In this work, we investigate the impact of streaming velocity on the BAO feature of the Lyman- α forest auto-power spectrum, one of the main tracers being used by the recently commissioned Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). To do this, we develop a perturbative model for Lyman- α flux fluctuations which is complete to second order for a certain set of fields, and applicable to any redshift-space tracer of structure since it is based only on symmetry considerations. We find that there are 8 biasing coefficients through second order. We find streaming velocity-induced shifts in the BAO scale of 0.081%–0.149% (transverse direction) and 0.053%–0.058% (radial direction), depending on the model for the biasing coefficients used. These are smaller than, but not negligible compared to, the DESI Lyman- α BAO error budget, which is 0.46% on the overall scale. Overall, the sensitivity of these results to our choice of bias parameters underscores the need for future work to measure the higher-order biasing coefficients from simulations, especially for future experiments beyond DESI.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Experimental and theoretical study of energy transfer in a chromophore triad: What makes modeling dynamics successful?

Simulation of electronic dynamics in realistically large molecular systems is a demanding task that has not yet achieved the same level of quantitative prediction already realized for its static counterpart. This is particularly true for processes occurring beyond the Born–Oppenheimer regime. Non-adiabatic molecular dynamics (NAMD) simulations suffer from two convoluted sources of error: numerical algorithms for dynamics and electronic structure calculations. While the former has gained increasing attention, particularly addressing the validity of ad hoc methodologies, the effect of the latter remains relatively unexplored. Indeed, the required accuracy for electronic structure calculations to reach quantitative agreement with experiment in dynamics may be even more strict than that required for static simulations. In this study, we address this issue by modeling the electronic energy transfer in a donor–acceptor–donor (D–A–D) molecular light harvesting system using fewest switches surface hopping NAMD simulations. In the studied system, time-resolved experimental measurements deliver complete information on spectra and energy transfer rates. Subsequent modeling shows that the calculated electronic transition energies are “sufficiently good” to reproduce experimental spectra but produce over an order of magnitude error in simulated dynamical rates. We further perform simulations using artificially shifted energy gaps to investigate the complex relationship between transition energies and modeled dynamics to understand factors affecting non-radiative relaxation and energy transfer rates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measuring thermal profiles in high explosives using neural networks

We present a new method for calculating the temperature profile of high explosive (HE) material using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). To train/test the CNN, we have developed a hybrid experiment/simulation method for collecting acoustic and temperature data. We experimentally heat cylindrical containers of HE material until detonation/deflagration, where we continuously measure the acoustic bursts through the HE using multiple acoustic transducers lined around the exterior container circumference. However, measuring the temperature profile in the HE in an experiment would require inserting a large number of thermal probes, which would disrupt the heating process. Thus, we use two thermal probes, one at the HE center and one at the wall. We then use numerical simulation of the heating process to calculate the temperature distribution and correct the simulated temperatures based on the experimental center and wall temperatures. We calculate temperature errors on the order of 15 °C, which is ∼12% of the range of temperatures in the experiment. We also investigate how the algorithm’s accuracy is affected by the number of acoustic receivers used to collect each measurement and the resolution of the temperature prediction. This work provides a means of assessing the safety status of HE material, which cannot be achieved using existing temperature measurement methods. In addition, it has implications for a range of other applications where internal temperature profile measurements would provide critical information. These applications include detecting chemical reactions, observing thermodynamic processes such as combustion, monitoring metal or plastic casting, determining the energy density in thermal storage capsules, and identifying abnormal battery operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measuring thermal profiles in high explosives using neural networks

We present a new method for calculating the temperature profile of high explosive (HE) material using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). To train/test the CNN, we have developed a hybrid experiment/simulation method for collecting acoustic and temperature data. We experimentally heat cylindrical containers of HE material until detonation/deflagration, where we continuously measure the acoustic bursts through the HE using multiple acoustic transducers lined around the exterior container circumference. However, measuring the temperature profile in the HE in an experiment would require inserting a large number of thermal probes, which would disrupt the heating process. Thus, we use two thermal probes, one at the HE center and one at the wall. We then use numerical simulation of the heating process to calculate the temperature distribution and correct the simulated temperatures based on the experimental center and wall temperatures. We calculate temperature errors on the order of 15 °C, which is ~12% of the range of temperatures in the experiment. We also investigate how the algorithm’s accuracy is affected by the number of acoustic receivers used to collect each measurement and the resolution of the temperature prediction. This work provides a means of assessing the safety status of HE material, which cannot be achieved using existing temperature measurement methods. In addition, it has implications for a range of other applications where internal temperature profile measurements would provide critical information. These applications include detecting chemical reactions, observing thermodynamic processes such as combustion, monitoring metal or plastic casting, determining the energy density in thermal storage capsules, and identifying abnormal battery operations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical Modeling to Enhance Spectrophotometry Measurements—Overcoming Dynamic Range Limitations for Remote Monitoring of Neptunium

A robust hierarchical model has been demonstrated for monitoring a wide range of neptunium concentrations (0.75–890 mM) and varying temperatures (10–80 °C) using chemometrics and feature selection. The visible–near infrared electronic absorption spectrum (400–1700 nm) of monocharged neptunyl dioxocation (Np(V) = NpO2+) includes many bands, which have molar absorption coefficients that differ by nearly 2 orders of magnitude. The shape, position, and intensity of these bands differ with chemical interactions and changing temperature. These challenges make traditional quantification by univariate methods unfeasible. Measuring Np(V) concentration over several orders of magnitude would typically necessitate cells with varying path length, optical switches, and/or multiple spectrophotometers. Alternatively, the differences in the molar extinction coefficients for multiple absorption bands can be used to quantify Np(V) concentration over 3 orders of magnitude with a single optical path length (1 mm) and a hierarchical multivariate model. In this work, principal component analysis was used to distinguish the concentration regime of the sample, directing it to the relevant partial least squares regression submodels. Each submodel was optimized with unique feature selection filters that were selected by a genetic algorithm to enhance predictions. Through this approach, the percent root mean square error of prediction values were ≤1.05% for Np(V) concentrations and ≤4% for temperatures. This approach may be applied to other nuclear fuel cycle and environmental applications requiring real-time spectroscopic measurements over a wide range of conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty guided online ensemble for non-stationary data streams in fusion science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior with distribution drifts, resulted by both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with such non-stationary data streams. Online learning techniques have been leveraged in other domains, however it has been largely unexplored for fusion applications. In this paper, we investigate online learning for continuous adaptation to drifting data streams in the prediction of Toroidal Field (TF) coils deflection at the DIII-D fusion facility. We further address the short-term performance degradation inherent to standard online learning, which arises because ground truth is unavailable at prediction time. To mitigate this issue, we propose an uncertainty-guided online ensemble framework. The method leverages the Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) for calibrated uncertainty estimation and uses these uncertainty measures to guide a meta-algorithm that aggregates predictions from learners trained over different historical horizons. Our results show that online learning reduces prediction error by 80% compared to a static model. The online ensemble and the proposed uncertainty-guided ensemble further reduce error by approximately 6%, and 10% respectively, relative to standard single-model online learning, while also providing calibrated uncertainty estimates to support operational decision-making.

AI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probing the Kitaev honeycomb model on a neutral-atom quantum computer

Quantum simulations of many-body systems are among the most promising applications of quantum computers. In particular, models based on strongly correlated fermions are central to our understanding of quantum chemistry and materials problems, and can lead to exotic, topological phases of matter. However, owing to the non-local nature of fermions, such models are challenging to simulate with qubit devices. Here we realize a digital quantum simulation architecture for two-dimensional fermionic systems based on reconfigurable atom arrays. We utilize a fermion-to-qubit mapping based on Kitaev’s model on a honeycomb lattice, in which fermionic statistics are encoded using long-range entangled states. We prepare these states efficiently using measurement and feedforward, realize subsequent fermionic evolution through Floquet engineering with tunable entangling gates interspersed with atom rearrangement, and improve results with built-in error detection. Leveraging this fermion description of the Kitaev spin model, we efficiently prepare topological states across its complex phase diagram and verify the non-Abelian spin-liquid phase by evaluating an odd Chern number. We further explore this two-dimensional fermion system by realizing tunable dynamics and directly probing fermion exchange statistics. Finally, we simulate strong interactions and study the dynamics of the Fermi–Hubbard model on a square lattice. These results pave the way for digital quantum simulations of complex fermionic systems for materials science, chemistry and high-energy physics.

atomic and molecular physics↗

DOE OSTI2023

How can a diverse set of integral and semi-integral measurements inform identification of discrepant nuclear data?

Nuclear data are used for a variety of applications, including criticality safety, reactor performance, and material safeguards. Despite the breadth of use-cases, the effective neutron multiplication factor, keff, of ICSBEP critical assemblies are primarily used for nuclear data validation; these are sensitive to specific energy regions and nuclides and are unable to uniquely constrain nuclear data. As a consequence, general-purpose nuclear data libraries, such as ENDF/B-VIII.0, may have deficiencies that, while not apparent in criticality applications, negatively impact other applications, such as non-destructive analysis of special nuclear material and neutron diagnosed subcritical experiments. Recent work by the Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data (EUCLID) project developed a machine learning tool, RAFIEKI, which uses random forests and the SHAP metric to determine which nuclear data contribute most to predicted bias between measured and simulated responses (e.g. keff). This paper contrasts RAFIEKI analysis applied to keff only against RAFIEKI analysis with keff paired with either LLNL pulsed sphere measurements or subcritical benchmarks. Two examples show that a) including pulsed sphere measurements substantially increases 9Be nuclear data importance to bias between 2 and 15 MeV, and b) including subcritical benchmarks has the potential for disentangling compensating errors between 240Pu (n,el) and (n,il) cross-sections between 0.1 and 10 MeV. These results show that RAFIEKI analysis applied to response sets that include, but go beyond, keff can aid nuclear data evaluators in identifying issues in nuclear data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Autoregressive long-horizon prediction of plasma edge dynamics *

Accurate modeling of scrape-off layer (SOL) and divertor-edge dynamics is vital for designing plasma-facing components in fusion devices. High-fidelity edge fluid/neutral codes such as SOLPS-ITER capture SOL physics with high accuracy, but their computational cost limits broad parameter scans and long transient studies. We present transformer-based, autoregressive surrogates for efficient prediction of 2D, time-dependent plasma edge state fields. Trained on SOLPS-ITER spatiotemporal data for the KSTAR tokamak, the surrogates forecast electron temperature, electron density, and radiated power over extended horizons. We evaluate model variants trained with increasing autoregressive horizons (1–100 steps) on short- and long-horizon prediction tasks. Longer-horizon training systematically improves rollout stability and mitigates error accumulation, enabling stable predictions over hundreds to thousands of steps and reproducing key dynamical features such as the motion of high-radiation regions. Measured end-to-end wall-clock times show the surrogate is orders of magnitude faster than SOLPS-ITER, enabling rapid parameter exploration. Prediction accuracy degrades when the surrogate enters physical regimes not represented in the training dataset, motivating future work on data enrichment and physics-informed constraints. Overall, this approach provides a fast, accurate surrogate for computationally intensive plasma edge simulations, supporting rapid scenario exploration, control-oriented studies, and progress toward real-time applications in fusion devices.

autoregressive deep learning↗

DOE OSTI2022

Gold-gold luminosity increase in RHIC for a beam energy scan with colliding beam energies extending below the nominal injection energy

The Beam Energy Scan phase II (BES-II), performed in the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) from 2019 to 2021, explored the phase transition between quark-gluon plasma and hadronic gas. BES-II exceeded the goal of a fourfold increase in the average luminosity over that achieved during Beam Energy Scan phase I (BES-I), at five gold beam energies: 9.8, 7.3, 5.75, 4.59, and 3.85 GeV / nucleon. This was accomplished by addressing several beam dynamics effects, including intrabeam scattering, beam-beam, space charge, beam instability, and field errors induced by superconducting magnet persistent currents. Some of these effects are especially detrimental at low energies. BES-II achievements are presented, and the measures taken to improve RHIC performance are described. These measures span the whole RHIC complex, including ion beam sources, injectors, beam lifetime improvements in RHIC, and operation with the world’s first bunched beam Low Energy RHIC electron Cooler (LEReC).

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A new upper bound for the growth factor in Gaussian elimination with complete pivoting

Abstract The growth factor in Gaussian elimination measures how large the entries of an LU factorization can be relative to the entries of the original matrix. It is a key parameter in error estimates, and one of the most fundamental topics in numerical analysis. We produce an upper bound of for the growth factor in Gaussian elimination with complete pivoting — the first improvement upon Wilkinson's original 1961 bound of .

Bisain, Ankit [Department of Mathematics Massachus↗

DOE OSTI2023

OpenCSP v.1.0

SAND2024-08987O OpenCSP analyzes and improves the performance of optical mirrors that reflect sunlight and concentrate it onto a receiver. The algorithms in this library analyze the flow of light from an original source—such as the sun—reflecting off one or more mirrors, and onto a receiver, optical screen, or camera. OpenCSP also analyzes optical systems using other techniques, such as shape or slope comparison. The software calculates aggregate properties of the optical system, such as its efficiency, manufacturing error, pointing control error, expected performance, and other useful parameters. OpenCSP also includes high-level tools, such as Open SOFAST, a program that obtains high-resolution measurement of CSP mirrors, full heliostats, and other CSP collectors. OpenCSP supports producing meaningful output data to help CSP designers and field operators improve the performance of their systems. OpenCSP also includes classes and functions that support these calculations, including input utilities, analysis output libraries, geometric constraint analysis for drone flight planning, and more. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Brost, Randolph↗