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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Technoeconomic Evaluation of Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Hydrogen-Electricity Co-Generation Concepts

This report evaluates the cost and performance of several types of Integrated Energy Systems (IES) based on solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) to generate power and solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOECs) to produce hydrogen. All cases feature carbon capture at rates exceeding 97 percent. The report also describes the development of optimized steady state process models for each system. These are used to calculate overall electricity and hydrogen production costs using a consistent methodology that facilitates comparisons of these cases to one another and to prior NETL cost and performance estimates. The SOFC and SOEC costs and performance are based on nth-of-a-kind systems and include research and development and learning associated with mass-scale commercial deployment of the technology over the next decade required for commercial utility-scale systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Space Communication Artificial Intelligence for Link Evaluation Terminal (SCAILET)

A software application to assist end-users of the high burst rate (HBR) link evaluation terminal (LET) for satellite communications is being developed. The HBR LET system developed at NASA Lewis Research Center is an element of the Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project. The HBR LET is divided into seven major subsystems, each with its own expert. Programming scripts, test procedures defined by design engineers, set up the HBR LET system. These programming scripts are cryptic, hard to maintain and require a steep learning curve. These scripts were developed by the system engineers who will not be available for the end-users of the system. To increase end-user productivity a friendly interface needs to be added to the system. One possible solution is to provide the user with adequate documentation to perform the needed tasks. With the complexity of this system the vast amount of documentation needed would be overwhelming and the information would be hard to retrieve. With limited resources, maintenance is another reason for not using this form of documentation. An advanced form of interaction is being explored using current computer techniques. This application, which incorporates a combination of multimedia and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to provided end-users with an intelligent interface to the HBR LET system, is comprised of an intelligent assistant, intelligent tutoring, and hypermedia documentation. The intelligent assistant and tutoring systems address the critical programming needs of the end-user.

Shahidi, Anoosh K.↗

Linear Aerospike SR-71 Experiment (LASRE): Aerospace Propulsion Hazard Mitigation Systems

A major hazard posed by the propulsion system of hypersonic and space vehicles is the possibility of fire or explosion in the vehicle environment. The hazard is mitigated by minimizing or detecting, in the vehicle environment, the three ingredients essential to producing fire: fuel, oxidizer, and an ignition source. The Linear Aerospike SR-71 Experiment (LASRE) consisted of a linear aerospike rocket engine integrated into one-half of an X-33-like lifting body shape, carried on top of an SR-71 aircraft. Gaseous hydrogen and liquid oxygen were used as propellants. Although LASRE is a one-of-a-kind experimental system, it must be rated for piloted flight, so this test presented a unique challenge. To help meet safety requirements, the following propulsion hazard mitigation systems were incorporated into the experiment: pod inert purge, oxygen sensors, a hydrogen leak detection algorithm, hydrogen sensors, fire detection and pod temperature thermocouples, water misting, and control room displays. These systems are described, and their development discussed. Analyses, ground test, and flight test results are presented, as are findings and lessons learned.

Mizukami, Masashi↗

Capturing Complex Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High-Risk Adverse Events During Flight

The reduction of aviation safety metrics below target thresholds continue to drive down the number of aviation fatalities and accidents. To meet future safety demands, sustained efforts by aviation agencies promoting safety assurance processes and systems have prompted ongoing research on identifying and mitigating in-flight risks. With the projected increase in passenger load factor and rollout of more autonomous systems into the national airspace, the need to detect high-risk events in-time or ahead-of-time is becoming increasingly crucial. New anomaly detection and precursor identification algorithms will need to scale to different airframes, levels of autonomy, and system complexity. While the pervasiveness of deep learning has resulted in the development of performant anomaly detection methods, these sophisticated models currently suffer from low end-user interpretability. Building off our previous work on identifying adverse events in multivariate flight data during descent, we propose a data-driven approach for detecting in-flight adverse events caused by the complex interplay of flight variables. Our approach utilizes ordinal patterns of important aircraft stability variables (e.g., airspeed and descent rate) to capture multivariate flight dynamics that can be used to predict the onset of unstable approaches, a high-risk adverse event that can occur during approach. Through the use of ordinal patterns, we aim to create more interpretable detection models of in-flight adverse events that can be translated to future autonomous systems without difficulty. Our analysis shows the presence of distinct ordinal pattern distributions that can be used to predict unstable approaches 1 minute ahead of time with an accuracy of 0.69 and a recall of 0.73 and 30 seconds ahead with an accuracy of 0.70 and a recall of 0.86.

Risk detection↗

Capturing Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High‑Risk Instability During Approach

The reduction of aviation safety metrics below target thresholds continue to drive down the number of aviation fatalities and accidents. To meet future safety demands, sustained efforts by aviation agencies promoting safety assurance processes and systems have prompted ongoing research on identifying and mitigating in-flight risks. With the projected increase in passenger load factor and rollout of more autonomous systems into the national airspace, the need to detect high-risk events in-time or ahead-of-time is becoming increasingly crucial. New anomaly detection and precursor identification algorithms will need to scale to different airframes, levels of autonomy, and system complexity. While the pervasiveness of deep learning has resulted in the development of performant anomaly detection methods, these sophisticated models currently suffer from low end-user interpretability. Building off our previous work on identifying adverse events in multivariate flight data during descent, we propose a data-driven approach for detecting in-flight adverse events caused by the complex interplay of flight variables. Our approach utilizes ordinal patterns of important aircraft stability variables (e.g., airspeed and descent rate) to capture multivariate flight dynamics that can be used to predict the onset of unstable approaches, a high-risk adverse event that can occur during approach. Through the use of ordinal patterns, we aim to create more interpretable detection models of in-flight adverse events that can be translated to future autonomous systems without difficulty. Our analysis shows the presence of distinct ordinal pattern distributions that can be used to predict unstable approaches 1 minute ahead of time with an accuracy of 0.69 and a recall of 0.73 and 30 seconds ahead with an accuracy of 0.70 and a recall of 0.86.

Risk detection↗

Exploring PV Circularity by Modeling Socio-Technical Dynamics of Modules' End-of-Life Management: Preprint

The circular economy (CE) tackles environmental and resource scarcity issues by maximizing value retention in the economy. The concept implies design strategies such as reducing the use of materials or improving products’ durability and end-of-life (EOL) strategies such as reusing products and components and recycling materials. With an estimated 80 million tons of global cumulative EOL photovoltaic (PV) modules, applying CE principles to the PV industry could alleviate resource scarcity issues while also providing economic benefits. However, transitioning to a CE may imply changes in organizations and consumer behaviors. In this context, assessment of CE strategies may require accounting for behavioral change, a requirement that methods from complex system science such as agent-based modeling meet. Thus, this paper uses an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to study circularity in the photovoltaics supply chain. Four types of agents are represented in the ABM: PV owners, installers, recyclers, and manufacturers. Moreover, five possible EOL options – including three CE strategies – are modeled. Departing from traditional techno-economic analysis, the model includes techno-economic factors as well as social factors to model EOL management decisions. Results show that each dollar decrease in the recycling fees improves the recycling rate by roughly 1.1%. However, excluding social factors underestimates the effect that lower recycling prices have on material circularity.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗

Using Machine Learning to Predict Cloud Turbulent Entrainment–Mixing Processes

Different turbulent entrainment–mixing mechanisms between clouds and environment are essential to cloud–related processes; however, accurate representation of entrainment–mixing in weather/climate models still poses a challenge. This study exploits the use of machine learning (ML) to address this challenge. Four ML (Light Gradient Boosting Machine [LGB], eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Support Vector Regression) are examined and compared. It is found that LGB performs best, and thus is selected to understand the impact of entrainment–mixing on microphysics using simulation data from Explicit Mixing Parcel Model. Compared with traditional parameterizations, the trained LGB provides more accurate microphysical properties (number concentration and cloud droplet spectral dispersion). The partial dependences of predicted microphysics on features exhibit a strong alignment with physical mechanisms and expectations, as determined by the interpreting method, thus overcoming the limitations of the “black box” scheme. The underlying mechanisms are that the smaller number concentration and larger spectral dispersion correspond to more inhomogeneous entrainment–mixing. Specifically, number concentration after entrainment–mixing is positively correlated with adiabatic number concentration and liquid water content affected by entrainment–mixing, and inversely correlated with adiabatic volume mean radius. Spectral dispersion after entrainment–mixing is negatively correlated with liquid water content affected by entrainment–mixing, turbulent dissipation rate and relative humidity of entrained air. Sensitivity analysis further suggests that number concentration is mainly determined by cloud microphysical properties whereas spectral dispersion is influenced by both cloud microphysical properties and environmental variables. The results indicate that the LGB scheme has the potential to enhance the representation of entrainment–mixing in weather/climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhancing Gaussian Process Surrogates for Optimization and Posterior Approximation via Random Exploration

This paper proposes novel noise-free Bayesian optimization strategies that rely on a random exploration step to enhance the accuracy of Gaussian process surrogate models. The new algorithms retain the ease of implementation of the classical GP-UCB algorithm, but the additional random exploration step accelerates their convergence, nearly achieving the optimal convergence rate. Furthermore, to facilitate Bayesian inference with intractable likelihoods, we propose to utilize optimization iterates for maximum a posteriori estimation to build a Gaussian process surrogate model for the unnormalized log-posterior density. We provide bounds for the Hellinger distance between the true and the approximate posterior distributions in terms of the number of design points. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our Bayesian optimization algorithms in nonconvex benchmark objective functions, in a machine learning hyperparameter tuning problem, and in a black-box engineering design problem. The effectiveness of our posterior approximation approach is demonstrated in two Bayesian inference problems for parameters of dynamical systems.

Bayesian inference↗

Smart Proxy Modeling Application of Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning in Computational Fluid Dynamics

Smart proxy technology leverages the art of artificial intelligence and machine learning in order to build accurate and very fast proxy models for highly complex numerical simulation models. In this project, smart proxy technology is used to replicate the results of a highly complex single phase CFD simulation with reasonable degree of accuracy while reducing the computational cost associated with such CFD simulations. The CFD model under study simulates the combustion of natural gas under various conditions such as varying natural gas composition and flow rate, inlet air flow rate and temperature, and outlet pressure in a High-Pressure Combustion Facility (B6 Combustor) with more than 4 million simulation cells. Only eight CFD simulation runs were used to create a smart proxy model that replicates the detail distribution of Pressure, Temperature, Nitrogen, Oxygen and Carbon-dioxide concentration in the CFD simulation model in seconds with less than 10% error.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Envisioning urban environments resilient to vector-borne diseases: a protocol to study dengue in Vietnam

Transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti (Ae. aegypti) and Aedes albopictus (Ae. albopictus), arboviral diseases pose a major global public health threat. Dengue, chikungunya, and zika are increasingly prevalent in Southeast Asia. Among other arboviruses, dengue and zika are becoming more common in Central and South America. Given human encroachment into previously uninhabited, often deforested areas, to provide new housing in regions of population expansion, conceptualizing built urban environments in a novel way is urgently needed to safeguard against the growing climate change-driven threat of vector-borne diseases. By understanding the spread from a One Health perspective, enhanced control and prevention can be achieved. This is particularly important considering that climate change is likely to significantly impact the persistence of ponded water where mosquitoes breed due to increasing temperature and shifting rainfall patterns with regard to magnitude, duration, frequency, and season. Models can incorporate aquatic mosquito stages and adult spatial dynamics when habitats are heterogeneously available, thereby including dispersal and susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) epidemiology. Coupled with human population distribution (density, locations), atmospheric conditions (air temperature, precipitation), and hydrological conditions (soil moisture distribution, ponding persistence in topographic depressions), modeling has improved predictive ability for infection rates. However, it has not informed interventional approaches from an urban environment perspective which considers the role of ponds/lakes that support green spaces, the density of population that enables rapid spread of disease, and varying micro-habitats for various mosquito stages under climate change. Here, for an example of dengue in Vietnam, a preventive and predictive approach to design resilient urban environments is proposed, which uses data from rapidly expanding metropolitan communities to learn continually. This protocol deploys computational approaches including simulation and machine learning/artificial intelligence, underpinned by surveillance and medical data for validation and adaptive learning. Its application may best inform urban planning in low-middle income countries in tropical zones where arboviral pathogens are prevalent.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Approximate reasoning-based learning and control for proximity operations and docking in space

A recently proposed hybrid-neutral-network and fuzzy-logic-control architecture is applied to a fuzzy logic controller developed for attitude control of the Space Shuttle. A model using reinforcement learning and learning from past experience for fine-tuning its knowledge base is proposed. Two main components of this approximate reasoning-based intelligent control (ARIC) model - an action-state evaluation network and action selection network are described as well as the Space Shuttle attitude controller. An ARIC model for the controller is presented, and it is noted that the input layer in each network includes three nodes representing the angle error, angle error rate, and bias node. Preliminary results indicate that the controller can hold the pitch rate within its desired deadband and starts to use the jets at about 500 sec in the run.

Berenji, Hamid R.↗

Clustering of tethered satellite system simulation data by an adaptive neuro-fuzzy algorithm

Recent developments in neuro-fuzzy systems indicate that the concepts of adaptive pattern recognition, when used to identify appropriate control actions corresponding to clusters of patterns representing system states in dynamic nonlinear control systems, may result in innovative designs. A modular, unsupervised neural network architecture, in which fuzzy learning rules have been embedded is used for on-line identification of similar states. The architecture and control rules involved in Adaptive Fuzzy Leader Clustering (AFLC) allow this system to be incorporated in control systems for identification of system states corresponding to specific control actions. We have used this algorithm to cluster the simulation data of Tethered Satellite System (TSS) to estimate the range of delta voltages necessary to maintain the desired length rate of the tether. The AFLC algorithm is capable of on-line estimation of the appropriate control voltages from the corresponding length error and length rate error without a priori knowledge of their membership functions and familarity with the behavior of the Tethered Satellite System.

Mitra, Sunanda↗

Hawaii Space Grant Consortium

The Hawai'i Space Grant Consortium is composed of ten institutions of higher learning including the University of Hawai'i at Manoa, the University of Hawai'i at Hilo, the University of Guam, and seven Community Colleges spread over the 4 main Hawaiian islands. Geographic separation is not the only obstacle that we face as a Consortium. Hawai'i has been mired in an economic downturn due to a lack of tourism for almost all of the period (2001 - 2004) covered by this report, although hotel occupancy rates and real estate sales have sky-rocketed in the last year. Our challenges have been many including providing quality educational opportunities in the face of shrinking State and Federal budgets, encouraging science and technology course instruction at the K-12 level in a public school system that is becoming less focused on high technology and more focused on developing basic reading and math skills, and assembling community college programs with instructors who are expected to teach more classes for the same salary. Motivated people can overcome these problems. Fortunately, the Hawai'i Space Grant Consortium (HSGC) consists of a group of highly motivated and talented individuals who have not only overcome these obstacles, but have excelled with the Program. We fill a critical need within the State of Hawai'i to provide our children with opportunities to pursue their dreams of becoming the next generation of NASA astronauts, engineers, and explorers. Our strength lies not only in our diligent and creative HSGC advisory board, but also with Hawai'i's teachers, students, parents, and industry executives who are willing to invest their time, effort, and resources into Hawai'i's future. Our operational philosophy is to FACE the Future, meaning that we will facilitate, administer, catalyze, and educate in order to achieve our objective of creating a highly technically capable workforce both here in Hawai'i and for NASA. In addition to administering to programs and educating the public in the traditional sense, we also work to facilitate partnerships between other departments (geology & geophysics, engineering, geography, astronomy), state and federal government agencies in Hawai'i, and private industry. In some cases, we are the catalyst for new partnerships between private agency sponsors and education projects or for new joint research and education projects between industry and the University faculty.

Flynn, Luke P.↗

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Some lessons learned in three years with ADS-33C

Three years of using the U.S. Army's rotorcraft handling qualities specification, Aeronautical Design Standard - 33, has shown it to be surprisingly robust. It appears to provide an excellent basis for design and for assessment, however, as the subtleties become more well understood, several areas needing refinement became apparent. Three responses to these needs have been documented in this paper: (1) The yaw-axis attitude quickness for hover target acquisition and tracking can be relaxed slightly. (2) Understanding and application of criteria for degraded visual environments needed elaboration. This and some guidelines for testing to obtain visual cue ratings have been documented. (3) The flight test maneuvers were an innovation that turned out to be very valuable. Their extensive use has made it necessary to tighten definitions and testing guidance. This was accomplished for a good visual environment and is underway for degraded visual environments.

Key, David L.↗

Accelerating discrete dislocation dynamics simulations with graph neural networks

Discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) is a widely employed computational method to study plasticity at the mesoscale that connects the motion of dislocation lines to the macroscopic response of crystalline materials. However, the computational cost of DDD simulations remains a bottleneck that limits its range of applicability. Here, we introduce a new DDD-GNN framework in which the expensive time-integration of dislocation motion is entirely substituted by a graph neural network (GNN) model trained on DDD trajectories. As a first application, we demonstrate the feasibility and potential of our method on a simple yet relevant model of a dislocation line gliding through an array of obstacles. We show that the DDD-GNN model is stable and reproduces very well unseen ground-truth DDD simulation responses for a range of straining rates and obstacle densities, without the need to explicitly compute nodal forces or dislocation mobilities during time-integration. Our approach opens new promising avenues to accelerate DDD simulations and to incorporate more complex dislocation motion behaviors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Wavelet Analysis of Properties of Marine Boundary Layer Mesoscale Cells Observed From AMSR–E

Marine boundary layer clouds tend to organize into closed or open mesoscale cellular convection (MCC). Here, two-dimensional wavelet analysis is applied for the first time to passive microwave retrievals of cloud water path (CWP), water vapor path (WVP), and rain rate (RR) from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System in 2008 over the Northeast and Southeast Pacific, and the Southeast Atlantic subtropical stratocumulus to cumulus transition regions. The (co-)variability between CWP, WVP, and RR in 160 × 160 km 2 analysis boxes is partitioned between four mesoscale wavelength octaves (20, 40, 80, and 160 km). The cell scale is identified as the wavelength of the peak CWP variance. Together with a machine-learning classification of cell type, this allows the statistical characteristics of open and closed MCC of various scales, and its relation to WVP, RR, and potential environmental controlling factors to be analyzed across a very large set of cases. Here, the results show that the cell wavelength is most commonly 40–80 km. Cell-scale CWP perturbations are good predictors of the WVP and RR perturbations. For cells larger than 20 km, there is no obvious dependence of cell scale on the environmental controlling factors tested, suggesting that the cell scale may depend more on its historical evolution than the current environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coastal Wetland Carbon Processes in a Warmer Climate (Final Report)

Coastal wetlands are global hotspots of carbon storage. Marshes, mangroves, and seagrass meadows account for about half of the total marine soil carbon budget and bury carbon at rates roughly equivalent to terrestrial forests despite occupying just 2.5% of Earth’s land area. Coastal wetlands have recently been recognized as important for storing carbon, but the future sink strength and carbon stock stability of these systems is uncertain because global change drivers such as temperature and elevated CO 2 disturb the complex ecology that drives high rates of soil carbon sequestration. The dynamics of coastal wetland carbon pools are not presently represented in earth system models. Our goals are to understand the influence of warming and elevated CO 2 on C cycling and to forecast the stability of tidal wetland soil carbon pools at the terrestrial-aquatic interface. We designed and implemented a novel field manipulation of elevated CO 2 and temperature and operated it from 2016 to 2020. We learned that plant communities and microbial communities respond differently to rising temperature, and that the net effects of these responses means that a modest amount of warming will increase tidal marsh carbon sequestration, while warming above that level will diminish the potential for additional carbon sequestration. In mathematical terms the system showed non-linear responses which are important for building forecast models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗