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At least 1,261 records · Page 70
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

The PRISM4 (mid-Piacenzian) Palaeoenvironmental Reconstruction

The mid-Piacenzian is known as a period of relative warmth when compared to the present day. A comprehensive understanding of conditions during the Piacenzian serves as both a conceptual model and a source for boundary conditions as well as means of verification of global climate model experiments. In this paper we present the PRISM4 reconstruction, a paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the mid-Piacenzian (approximately 3 Ma) containing data for paleogeography, land and sea ice, sea-surface temperature, vegetation, soils, and lakes. Our retrodicted paleogeography takes into account glacial isostatic adjustments and changes in dynamic topography. Soils and lakes, both significant as land surface features, are introduced to the PRISM reconstruction for the first time. Sea-surface temperature and vegetation reconstructions are unchanged but now have confidence assessments. The PRISM4 reconstruction is being used as boundary condition data for the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) experiments.

soils↗
NASA NTRS2023

Estimating the concentration of total suspended solids in inland and coastal waters from Sentinel-2 MSI: A semi-analytical approach

Inland and coastal waters provide key ecosystem services and are closely linked to human well-being. In this study, we propose a semi-analytical method, which can be applied to Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) images to retrieve high spatial-resolution total suspended solids (TSS) concentration in a broad spectrum of aquatic ecosystems ranging from clear to extremely turbid waters. The presented approach has four main steps. First, the remote sensing reflectance ( R rs ) at a band lacking in MSI (620 nm) is estimated through an empirical relationship from R rs at 665 nm. Second, waters are classified into four types (clear, moderately turbid, highly turbid, and extremely turbid). Third, semi-analytical algorithms are used to estimate the particulate backscattering coefficient ( b bp ) at a reference band depending on the water types. Last, TSS is estimated from bbp at the reference band. Validation and comparison of the proposed method with three existing methods are performed using a simulated dataset ( N = 1000), an in situ dataset collected from global inland and coastal waters ( N = 1265) and satellite matchups ( N = 40). Results indicate that the proposed method can improve TSS estimation and provide accurate retrievals of TSS from all three datasets, with a median absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 14.88 %, 31.50 % and 41.69 % respectively. We also present comparisons of TSS mapping between the Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) and MSI in Lake Kasumigaura, Japan and the Tagus Estuary, Portugal. Results clearly demonstrate the advantages of using MSI for TSS monitoring in small water bodies such as rivers, river mouths and other nearshore waters. MSI can provide more detailed and realistic TSS estimates than OLCI in these water bodies. The proposed TSS estimation method was applied to MSI images to produce TSS time-series in Lake Kasumigaura, which showed good agreements with in situ and OLCI-derived TSS time-series.

Sentinel-2↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Abstract Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold‐adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Wasatch Environmental Observatory: A mountain to urban research network in the semi‐arid western US

Abstract The 2085 km 2 Jordan River Basin, and its seven sub‐catchments draining the Central Wasatch Range immediately east of Salt Lake City, UT, are home to an array of hydrologic, atmospheric, climatic and chemical research infrastructure that collectively forms the Wasatch Environmental Observatory (WEO). WEO is geographically nested within a wildland to urban land‐use gradient and built upon a strong foundation of over a century of discharge and climate records. A 2200 m gradient in elevation results in variable precipitation, temperature and vegetation patterns. Soil and subsurface structure reflect systematic variation in geology from granitic, intrusive to mixed sedimentary clastic across headwater catchments, all draining to the alluvial or colluvial sediments of the former Lake Bonneville. Winter snowfall and spring snowmelt control annual hydroclimate, rapid population growth dominates geographic change in lower elevations and urban gas and particle emissions contribute to episodes of severe air pollution in this closed‐basin. Long‐term hydroclimate observations across this diverse landscape provide the foundation for an expanding network of infrastructure in both montane and urban landscapes. Current infrastructure supports both basic and applied research in atmospheric chemistry, biogeochemistry, climate, ecology, hydrology, meteorology, resource management and urban redesign that is augmented through strong partnerships with cooperating agencies. These features allow WEO to serve as a unique natural laboratory for addressing research questions facing seasonally snow‐covered, semi‐arid regions in a rapidly changing world and an excellent facility for providing student education and research training.

Follstad Shah, Jennifer J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Variations in northeast Asian summer precipitation driven by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

By analysing a 113–year (1900–2012) observational dataset, it is shown in this work that the interdecadal fluctuation of the summer precipitation over Northeast Asia differs from that in central East Asia during the 20th century, and has experienced three interdecadal shifts in the 1920s, mid-1960s and late 1990s. That fluctuation coincides well with the multidecadal fluctuation of the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic, known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO affects Northeast Asia via a circumglobal teleconnection pattern extending from the North Atlantic to North America. Corresponding with the positive phase of this teleconnection pattern, a tripolar pattern emerges in the Asian–North Pacific sector, with anomalous low pressure over Northeast Asia and high pressure over Lake Baikal and the mid-latitude western North Pacific. These results suggest that the positive phase of the AMO favours the occurrence of cold vortex over Northeast Asia and anomalous highs over Lake Baikal and the mid-latitude western North Pacific in summer, which enhances the East Asian summer monsoon and southward intrusion of high-latitude cold air, and eventually increases the summer precipitation in Northeast Asia. Furthermore, initialized decadal prediction simulations using the CCSM4 model reproduce well the observed variations of the AMO and its associated atmospheric teleconnection but with slightly shifted geographic locations. The simulated anomalous Northeast Asia cold vortex and strong East Asian summer monsoon, lead to above-normal summer precipitation over Northeast Asia. The modelling results confirm that the multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic can cause the observed interdecadal variations of Northeast Asia summer precipitation. Our results suggest that to understand and predict interdecadal climate change over Northeast Asia, it is important to consider the key role of the AMO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficacy of one-time rotenone application for Westslope Cutthroat Trout restoration in Boulder Creek, Montana

Abstract Objective Although piscicides are an important tool for native fish management, our understanding of native fish population dynamics posttreatment (i.e., in putatively vacant habitat) is limited. Methods Here, we describe long-term trends in size and abundance of Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii in Lower Boulder Lake and Boulder Creek (Montana). Result No significant differences were found before and after treatment with rotenone in mean length and population density in Boulder Creek. Posttreatment genetic samples from Boulder Lake and upper Boulder Creek consisted entirely of the Westslope Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi used to refound the population. Middle and lower Boulder Creek genetic samples contained 99.4% and 98.4% Westslope Cutthroat Trout, indicating that some nonnative (Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri hybrid) fish survived the treatment. Population demographics showed robust recovery posttreatment; however, genetic results revealed the limitations of a one-time treatment—that is, an incomplete fish kill. Conclusion We demonstrate that Cutthroat Trout populations achieve recovery after rotenone treatment in the long term, but one-time rotenone treatments on large drainages often fail to totally eradicate populations. Therefore, managers should plan on multiple treatments and utilize environmental DNA to help achieve total removal of target species.

Lampton, Jared↗
DOE OSTI2022

An overview of the evolving jurisdictional scope of the U.S. Clean Water Act for hydrologists

Abstract The Clean Water Act (CWA) is the primary federal mechanism by which the physical, chemical, and biological integrity of streams, lakes, and wetlands are protected in the United States. The CWA has evolved considerably since its initial passage in 1948, including explicit expansions and contractions of jurisdictional scope through a series of legislative actions, court decisions, and agency rules. Here, we provide a practical summary of the CWA's evolution, detailing the major updates or revisions and their circumstances. Additionally, we identify the jurisdictional scope of the law for rivers and streams, lakes, and wetlands based on the language used and implementation by the agencies during the same time period. While the rulemaking process commonly uses language that will be abstract to many hydrologists, understanding the on‐the‐ground implications, quantifying regulatory (un)certainties, and assessing the magnitude of changes through time is important to understanding the implications of environmental regulation development, litigation, and enforcement. Thus, we translate the enforcement norms and definitions into quantitative estimates for Clean Water Act scope in the Wabash River Basin (Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, USA) as a demonstration of the spatial consequences of changing regulatory language. This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Planning Water Human Water > Water Governance Water and Life > Conservation, Management, and Awareness

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extreme windstorms in the Northeastern USA in the contemporary and future climate

Cold-season windstorms represent an important, and potentially changing, geophysical hazard in the Northeastern United States. Here we employ an integrated research methodology including both a storyline approach, where three intense windstorms from the current climate are subjected to pseudo-global warming (PGW) experiments, and a long-term transient simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. An ensemble of WRF simulations is built for each windstorm using different planetary boundary layer and microphysical parameterizations. The fidelity assessment suggests all ensemble members capture the windstorm evolution in contemporary climate. The configuration with highest fidelity is used in the PGW experiments performed with perturbed temperature fields, constant relative humidity, and deiced Great Lakes. These perturbation simulations indicate some evidence for a reduction of sea level pressure and increases in wind speed over and downwind of the Great Lakes and over the Atlantic Ocean plus an increase in precipitation accumulation but a reduction in snow coverage. These changes are spatially inhomogeneous in terms of magnitude and sign but are consistent with changes in potential vorticity. Alberta Clippers and Colorado Lows dominate the cyclones responsible for historical windstorms and thus are sampled in the PGW simulations. However, the transient simulation suggests an increasing role for tropical cyclones that undergo transition to extratropical cyclones. Furthermore, this reinforces the value of combining information from both PGW perturbation experiments within a storyline context and transient simulations when seeking to quantify the future risk associated with cold-season windstorms under changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing compounding climate-related stresses and development pathways on the power sector in the central U.S.

Future configurations of the power system in the central region of the USA are dependent on relative costs of alternative power generation technologies, energy and environmental policies, and multiple climate-induced stresses. Higher demand in the summer months combined with compounding supply shocks in several power generation technologies can potentially cause a “perfect storm” leading to failure of the power system. Potential future climate stress must be incorporated in investment decisions and energy system planning and operation. We assess how projected future climate impacts on the power system would affect alternative pathways for the electricity sector considering a broad range of generation technologies and changes in demand. We calculate a “potential supply gap” metric for each pathway, system component, and sub-region of the US Heartland due to climate-induced effects on electricity demand and power generation. Potential supply gaps range from 5% in the North Central region under mild changes in climate to 21% in the Lakes-Mid Atlantic region under more severe climate change. We find increases in electricity demand to be more important in determining the size of the potential supply gap than stresses on power generation, while larger shares of renewables in the power system contribute to lower supply gaps. Our results provide a first step toward considering systemic climate impacts that may require changes in managing the grid or on potential additional capacity/reserves that may be needed.

Gurgel, Angelo Costa↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uranium sorption to organic matter and long-term accumulation in a pristine alpine wetland

Understanding the controls on uranium (U) mobility in the environment is key to improve the management of sites contaminated by U mining activities. Previous research has shown that natural or engineered wetlands are particularly able to scavenge high amounts of U(VI) and U(IV) under noncrystalline forms. However, questions remain on the respective roles of sorption and reduction processes in the removal of U from running waters in wetlands, as well as on the long-term stability of U storage. Here, we performed a series of geochemical, isotopic ($δ$ 238 U, ( 234 U/ 238 U)), microscopic (SEM-EDXS, EPMA) and spectroscopic (µ-XRF, µ-XAS, XANES and EXAFS at the U L 3 and M 4 -edges and Fe K-edge) investigations to determine the modes of U accumulation and assess U mobility in a natural exceptionally U-enriched (up to 5000 µg/g) wetland on the shore of Lake Nègre (Mediterranean Alps, France). Uranium (VI) was largely dominant in the two studied soil cores, except a few samples containing as much as ~50 % U(IV). At the particle scale, U is associated to a variety of organic constituents of the soil matrix with a homogenous oxidation state. Bulk EXAFS spectroscopy at the U L 3 -edge shows that U is mostly mononuclear, with dominant monodentate binding to organic moieties (C neighbors at ~3.45 Å). An additional minor fraction of U under polymeric forms is inferred from wavelet (CCWT) analysis of the EXAFS data. These observations are reinforced by 1 M bicarbonate extractions that result in the dissolution of 82–96 % of total U, including putative polymeric species. At the wetland scale, similar or slightly fractionated isotopic ratios ($δ$ 238 U) between the wetland-feeding creek waters and the wetland soils are observed, supporting the idea that U(VI) sorption on organic matter is the primary U scavenging mechanism. Furthermore, it indicates that partial U(VI) reduction to U(IV) occurs as a second step, after sorption. Analysis of U decay chain disequilibria in the cores as a function of depth suggests that U accumulation in this wetland has lasted for several thousand years. In conclusion, we propose that the wetland acts as an active reactor where U has been massively accumulating for ~14500 years, especially as U(VI) forms associated to organic matter and is further partly exported to the lake through soil erosion.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Manganese in drinking-water reservoirs: a multi-disciplinary review of current issues, biogeochemical controls, and oxygenation-based management

Decreased water quality and increased treatment costs due to excess manganese (Mn) in drinking-water supplies are critical issues globally. To combat on-going and emerging taste and odour issues with Mn and other contaminants (e.g., algal toxins), many utilities are using engineered oxygenation or aeration (EOA) systems to improve water quality in lakes and reservoirs. Resultant shifts in key biogeochemical and physical processes are still poorly understood, often leading to inefficiently managed systems. Paired with knowledge gaps regarding environmental drivers of Mn and the complexity of Mn redox kinetics, Mn problems persist. This review presents the state of current research in areas critical to optimisation of EOA mitigation of Mn, with focus on i) Mn biogeochemical cycling within drinking-water reservoirs; ii) influences of local catchment geology, hydrology, and land use on Mn dynamics; and iii) Mn management using different EOA approaches. The importance of considering the combined implications of these factors for successful Mn management in reservoirs is highlighted by an evaluation of relevant field-based studies; a wide range in EOA performance is observed, from a 97 % decrease in soluble Mn up to a ∼400 % increase in total Mn. Despite the breadth of studies that consider Mn in water-supply systems, there are still several areas of research which warrant further investigation, including: the influence of natural sources and anthropogenic activities on Mn within a given catchment, Mn speciation and transport in stratified and destratified lakes and reservoirs, and optimal site-specific EOA strategies for Mn mitigation.

Aeration↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatially calibrating polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) as proxies of area burned by vegetation fires: Insights from comparisons of historical data and sedimentary PAH fluxes

Many regions worldwide have experienced increasing wildfire activity in recent years and climate changes are predicted to result in more frequent and severe fires. Reconstruction of past fire activity offers paleoenvironmental context for modern and future burning. Pyrogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been increasingly used as a molecular biomarker for fire occurrence in the paleorecord and offer opportunity for nuanced reconstructions of fire characteristics. A suite of PAHs are produced during combustion, and the emission amount and assemblage is influenced by many variables including fuel type, fire temperature, and oxygen availability. Despite recent advances in understanding the controls and taphonomy of these biomass burning markers, the spatial scale of this proxy is unknown. In this paper, measurements of PAH fluxes preserved in a lake sediment archive from the Sierra Nevada, California were compared with a historical geographic information system dataset of area burned up to 150 km distance from the lake to determine the spatial scales for which these biomarkers are reliable proxies of burning. Comparisons of PAH fluxes with charcoal accumulation rates in the same sediments suggest that pyrogenic particulate transport modulates low to mid-molecular weight PAHs via adsorption. Overall, the results indicate that PAH records integrate a combination of spatial signals of area burned and measurement of individual PAHs may enable cross-scale paleofire reconstructions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning To Assess Patterns of Areal Change in Waterbodies across the Contiguous United States

Lake and reservoir surface areas are an important proxy for freshwater availability. Advancements in machine learning (ML) techniques and increased accessibility of remote sensing data products have enabled the analysis of waterbody surface area dynamics on broad spatial scales. However, interpreting the ML results remains a challenge. While ML provides important tools for identifying patterns, the resultant models do not include mechanisms. Thus, the “black-box” nature of ML techniques often lacks ecological meaning. Using ML, we characterized temporal patterns in lake and reservoir surface area change from 1984 to 2016 for 103,930 waterbodies in the contiguous United States. We then employed knowledge-guided machine learning (KGML) to classify all waterbodies into seven ecologically interpretable groups representing distinct patterns of surface area change over time. Many waterbodies were classified as having “no change” (43%), whereas the remaining 57% of waterbodies fell into other groups representing both linear and nonlinear patterns. This analysis demonstrates the potential of KGML not only for identifying ecologically relevant patterns of change across time but also for unraveling complex processes that underpin those changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Arctic River Delta Morphologic Variability and Implications for Riverine Fluxes to the Coast

Arctic riverine fluxes are anticipated to increase as the Arctic warms and have a large impact on the Arctic ocean. Deltas modify the spatial and temporal distributions of riverine fluxes, but no thorough studies have been conducted to analyze Arctic delta morphologies to determine their influence on land–ocean fluxes. We performed an analysis of six high–latitude deltas (Colville, Kolyma, Lena, Mackenzie, Yenisei, and Yukon) to characterize delta morphologies and determine the influence of morphology on the distribution of fluxes to the coast. All six deltas deliver material to the coast at discrete locations across small areas despite differences in delta shoreline length. Large Arctic deltas exhibit large variability in channel width, which we hypothesize is due to a feedback with ice cover and retreat that favors the growth of large channels over geologic timescales. Spatial variability in island sizes suggests variability in channel activity, island nourishment, and susceptibility to drowning by sea level rise. Potential lake storage is highest on the Mackenzie delta, thus providing a means for reducing nutrient and sediment loading of the coastal ocean. Here, the connected lakes are also prevalent on the Colville and Yukon deltas, suggesting that these deltas can filter riverine fluxes even when the deltas are not flooded. Differences in Arctic delta morphologies can be explained by varying levels of riverine and marine influence, antecedent topography, and local channel dynamics. Ice cover also plays a large role in controlling Arctic delta morphologies and dynamics that has not been previously represented in interpretations of existing delta metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Synoptic Meteorology Explains Temperate Forest Carbon Uptake

Abstract While substantial attention has been paid to the effects of both global climate oscillations and local meteorological conditions on the interannual variability of ecosystem carbon exchange, the relationship between the interannual variability of synoptic meteorology and ecosystem carbon exchange has not been well studied. Here we use a clustering algorithm to identify a summertime cyclonic precipitation system northwest of the Great Lakes to determine (a) the association at a daily scale between the occurrence of this system and the local meteorology and net ecosystem exchange at three Great Lakes region forested eddy covariance sites and (b) the association between the seasonal prevalence of this system and the summertime net ecosystem exchange of these sites. We find that temperature, in addition to precipitation and cloud cover, is an important explanatory factor for the suppression of net ecosystem productivity that occurs during these cyclonic events in this region. In addition, the prevalence of this cyclonic system can explain a significant proportion of the interannual variability in summertime forest ecosystem exchange in this region. This explanatory power is not due to a simple accumulation of low‐productivity days that cooccur with this meteorological event, but rather a broader association between the frequency of these events and several aspects of prevailing seasonal conditions. This work demonstrates the usefulness of conceptualizing meteorology in terms of synoptic systems for explaining the interannual variability of regional carbon fluxes.

Randazzo, Nina A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Preservation of Climate‐Driven Landslide Dams in Western Oregon

Abstract Bedrock landsliding, including the formation of landslide dams, is a predominant geomorphic process in steep landscapes. Clarifying the importance of hydrologic and seismic mechanisms for triggering deep‐seated landslides remains an ongoing effort, and formulation of geomorphic metrics that predict dam preservation is crucial for quantifying secondary landslide hazards. Here, we identify >200 landslide‐dammed lakes in western Oregon and utilize dendrochronology and enhanced 14 C dating (“wiggle matching”) of “ghost forests” to establish slope failure timing at 20 sites. Our dated landslide dataset reveals bedrock landsliding has been common since the last Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake in January 1700 AD. Our study does not reveal landslides that date to 1700 AD. Rather, we observe temporal clustering of at least four landslides in the winter of 1889/1890 AD, coincident with a series of atmospheric rivers that generated one of the largest regionally recorded floods. We use topographic and field analyses to assess the relation between dam preservation and topographic characteristics of the impounded valleys. In contrast to previous studies, we do not observe systematic scaling between dam size and upstream drainage area, though dam stability indices for our sites correspond with “stable” dams elsewhere. Notably, we observe that dams are preferentially preserved at drainage areas of ∼1.5 to 13 km 2 and valley widths of ∼25 to 80 m, which may reflect the reduced downstream influence of debris flows and the accumulation of mature conifer trees upstream from landslide‐dammed lake outlets. We suggest that wood accumulation upstream of landslide dams tempers large stream discharges, thus inhibiting dam incision.

Struble, William T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Enhanced Reservoir Evaporation Losses From CMIP6‐Based Future Projections in the Contiguous United States

Abstract Enhanced reservoir evaporation has become an emerging concern regarding water loss, especially when compounded with the ever‐increasing water demand. In this study, we evaluated the evaporation rates and losses for 678 major reservoirs (representing nearly 90% of total storage capacity) in the Contiguous United States over historical baseline (1980–2019), near‐term (2020–2039), and mid‐term (2040–2059) future periods. The evaporation rate was estimated using the Lake Evaporation Model (LEM), an advanced lake evaporation model that addresses both heat storage and fetch effects, driven by multi‐ensemble downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects 6 (CMIP6) projections under the SSP585 emission scenario. The results project that the evaporation loss may increase by 2.5 × 10 7 m 3 /yr through the research period (1980–2059). Among all regions, the Rio Grande is projected to have the largest increasing rate in the near‐term and mid‐term future, with values of 7.11% of 10.25%, respectively. At the seasonal scale, the most significant increase in the evaporation rate is projected during the fall. The evaporation is projected to increase faster than the streamflow over many of the regions in the southwestern US during the summer/fall, suggesting that the shortage of water will be further exacerbated. The climate models contribute the most to the variance, as compared to the other components related to the projection of evaporation losses (e.g., hydrological model, downscaling method, and historical meteorological data set). These findings demonstrate the need to consider accelerated water loss through open water evaporation in long‐term water resources planning across various spatiotemporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi–year analysis of rain–snow levels at Marquette, Michigan

This study uses observations from a ground-based instrument suite to investigate the rain-snow level in stratiform rainfall from January 2014 to April 2020 in the Upper Great Lakes Region. The height above the surface where ice melts to rain, the rain-snow level (RSL), influences microphysical assumptions in remote sensing precipitation retrievals and the ability of space-based radar to discriminate surface precipitation phase because of ground clutter. The instrument suite is installed at the Marquette, MI (MQT) National Weather Service station adjacent to Lake Superior. Rain events and the RSL are studied through a ground-based vertically profiling radar (Micro Rain Radar), a custom NASA-developed video disdrometer (Precipitation Imaging Package), and reanalyses products from ECMWF ERA5 and NASA MERRA-2. Further, distinct macro and micro physical characteristics are observed in precipitation events with shallow RSL ( < 1.8 km above ground level [AGL]) and intermediate RSL ( > 1.8 km AGL). Intermediate RSL correspond to rain events with relatively higher rain rates and a higher concentration of small drops in the drop size distributions (DSDs). Shallow RSL DSDs contain relatively higher concentrations of large drops with lower fall speeds suggesting that partially melted snowflakes may be reaching the surface. Reflectivity-rain-rate relationships are also impacted by microphysical differences associated with RSL regimes. Radar-detected RSL agree with reanalysis-derived melt levels- especially at wet-bulb isotherms of 0.5°C and 1°C. Seasonal differences such as shallow rain-snow levels in winter, fall, and spring have subsequent implications for satellite detectability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗