Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “inverse prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,261 records · Page 70
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Fission with Exotic Nuclei (Abbreviated Report)

Nuclear fission is a key mechanism involved in the synthesis of heavy elements in the Cosmos and is the primary explanation for the stability of superheavy elements. Nevertheless, our knowledge of fission remains extremely fragmented. Most experiments have been conducted only on a tiny number of stable actinide nuclei and are often incomplete, leading to gaps in our basic understanding of the process. For many radioactive isotopes, basic fission data such as the charge or mass distribution of the fragments is unknown. These gaps cannot always be filled by simulation alone. Common fission models contain too many free parameters and lack predictive power. In contrast, the fundamental theory of fission under development at LLNL is much more predictive, but its current computational cost is too high to be used extensively for data evaluations. A unique window of opportunity to resolve these limitations has recently opened: the U.S. nuclear science community is ramping up major experimental programs at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB, the DOE flagship facility in low-energy nuclear science), and techniques from machine learning have shown great potential to simplify the use of a fundamental, quantum-mechanical theory of fission. This project has two components. On the experimental side, we acquired and deployed at the HIGS facility a new dual Frisch-Grid ionization chamber to measure correlated fragment-mass, kinetic energy, and angular distributions of fission fragments from induced fission. This new device was used to perform measurements of charge, mass and total kinetic energy of fission fragments in the photofission of 238 U and eight gamma-ray beam energies between 6.2 and 13 MeV, which allowed extracting high-precision independent yields for this reaction. The device was also used to perform measurements of the same quantities in the neutron-induced fission of 234 U with monoenergetic beams of energy between 5 and 8 MeV. In parallel, we collaborated with a team at Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) to perform a series of measurements of fission yields in inverse kinematics for the two isotopes of 236 U and 240 Pu. The experiment took place at the Grand Accélérateur National d’Ions Lourds in France in June 2023. The deployment of the VAMOS spectrometer with a new array called PISTA allowed determining the excitation energy of the fissioning system within 1 Mega-electronvolts. The second component of the project involved using deep neural networks to build fast and reliable emulators of our current fission models. In an invited paper published in Frontier in Physics, we showed that autoencoders could successfully compress nuclear wavefunctions in nuclear density functional theory. We achieved a dimensionality reduction of the order of two orders of magnitude while keeping the error in the total energy to less than 0.01%. In a second paper submitted to Physical Review Letters in June 2023 with our collaborators at CEA, we showed that variational autoencoders can learn the collective degrees of freedom driving the fission process.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Radiative interactions in multi-dimensional chemically reacting flows using Monte Carlo simulations

The Monte Carlo method (MCM) is applied to analyze radiative heat transfer in nongray gases. The nongray model employed is based on the statistical narrow band model with an exponential-tailed inverse intensity distribution. The amount and transfer of the emitted radiative energy in a finite volume element within a medium are considered in an exact manner. The spectral correlation between transmittances of two different segments of the same path in a medium makes the statistical relationship different from the conventional relationship, which only provides the non-correlated results for nongray methods is discussed. Validation of the Monte Carlo formulations is conducted by comparing results of this method of other solutions. In order to further establish the validity of the MCM, a relatively simple problem of radiative interactions in laminar parallel plate flows is considered. One-dimensional correlated Monte Carlo formulations are applied to investigate radiative heat transfer. The nongray Monte Carlo solutions are also obtained for the same problem and they also essentially match the available analytical solutions. the exact correlated and non-correlated Monte Carlo formulations are very complicated for multi-dimensional systems. However, by introducing the assumption of an infinitesimal volume element, the approximate correlated and non-correlated formulations are obtained which are much simpler than the exact formulations. Consideration of different problems and comparison of different solutions reveal that the approximate and exact correlated solutions agree very well, and so do the approximate and exact non-correlated solutions. However, the two non-correlated solutions have no physical meaning because they significantly differ from the correlated solutions. An accurate prediction of radiative heat transfer in any nongray and multi-dimensional system is possible by using the approximate correlated formulations. Radiative interactions are investigated in chemically reacting compressible flows of premixed hydrogen and air in an expanding nozzle. The governing equations are based on the fully elliptic Navier-Stokes equations. Chemical reaction mechanisms were described by a finite rate chemistry model. The correlated Monte Carlo method developed earlier was employed to simulate multi-dimensional radiative heat transfer. Results obtained demonstrate that radiative effects on the flowfield are minimal but radiative effects on the wall heat transfer are significant. Extensive parametric studies are conducted to investigate the effects of equivalence ratio, wall temperature, inlet flow temperature, and nozzle size on the radiative and conductive wall fluxes.

Liu, Jiwen↗
DOE OSTI2023

Forward sensitivity analysis and mode dependent control for closure modeling of Galerkin systems

Model reduction by projection-based approaches is often associated with losing some of the important features that contribute towards the dynamics of the retained scales. As a result, a mismatch occurs between the predicted trajectories of the original system and the truncated one. We put forth a framework to apply a continuous time control signal in the latent space of the reduced order model (ROM) to account for the effect of truncation. We set the control input using parameterized models by following energy transfer principles. Our methodology relies on observing the system behavior in the physical space and using the projection operator to restrict the feedback signal into the latent space. Then, we leverage the forward sensitivity method (FSM) to derive relationships between the feedback and the desired mode-dependent control. We test the performance of the proposed approach using two test cases, corresponding to viscous Burgers and vortex merger problems at high Reynolds number. Results show that the ROM trajectory with the applied FSM control closely matches its target values in both the data-dense and data-sparse regimes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Imaging Wavepackets in Real-Space & Disentangling Ultrafast Solvation Dynamics with High-Energy Ultrafast X-ray Scattering

The microscopic information of solute and solute-solvent motions can be measured using ultrafast diffuse x-ray scattering, and compared to molecular dynamics simulations, as demonstrated in studies of solvated molecular systems done in X-ray free-electron lasers. However, for the typical photon energies used in these experiments, the photon momentum transfer range was limited to lower Q values where the signals arising from different parts of the studied system overlap significantly. Recently, this limitation was greatly alleviated by extending the photon energy at the Linac Coherent Light-Source (LCLS), significantly increasing the accessible momentum transfer range. This improvement is transformative for ultrafast diffuse x-ray scattering measurements, enabling for the first time to disentangle the solute scattering difference signal, that persists to higher Q values, from the bulk solvent and solute-solvent cross-terms difference signals. In addition, it enhances the prediction ability of modeling and simulation methods such as the hybrid QM/MM approach. The extended Q range also opens the way to resolve in real-space details regarding coherent wavepackets motions beyond their center-of-mass positions. Here, we present the first results on high-energy (18keV) diffuse x-ray scattering in solution, demonstrating high fidelity time-resolved scattering and analysis of the photoexcited model photocatalysts PtPOP ([Pt2(POP)4]4-), and IrDimen ([Ir2(dimen)4]2+) in several solvents. These complexes provide ideal systems for demonstrating the ability of high-Q ultrafast scattering and QM/MM simulations to decompose ultrafast solvation dynamics into specific changes in the solute-solvent pair distribution function with a particular focus on how electronically excited states change the interaction between the solvent and photo-catalytically active metal sites. We introduce an approach to further utilize the high-energy capability and demonstrate a single-shot ultra-wide-angle X-ray Scattering modality using two perpendicular detectors, spanning a scattering angle range of more than 100 degrees, allowing to extend the accessible momentum transfer range up to Q~14 Å-1. We develop a model-free method to invert the x-ray scattering signals and enable the recovery of multiple pair-density motions that happen simultaneously, allowing us to directly measure in real-space nuclear wavepacket motions. . [1] Natan, Adi. "Real-Space Inversion and Super-Resolution of Ultrafast X-ray Scattering using Natural Scattering Kernels." arXiv preprint arXiv:2107.05576 (2021)

Natan, Adi↗
DOE OSTI2025

Boosting Noise2Inverse via enhanced model selection for denoising computed tomography data

Synchrotron-based x-ray tomographic imaging enables the examination of the internal structure of materials at high spatial and temporal resolution. Experimental constraints can impose dose and time limits on the measurements, introducing a higher level of noise and artifacts in the reconstructed images. Deep learning has emerged as a powerful tool to remove noise from reconstructed images. Recently, the Noise2Inverse method was designed specifically for denoising reconstructed images without requiring paired noisy and clean images. This method creates multiple statistically independent reconstructions used to pair the data in which training involves transforming one reconstruction into the other, and vice versa. Originally designed to be used after a fixed number of epochs, we see in practice that this approach may not produce the optimal model and may unnecessarily waste computational resources. Therefore, we propose an alternative method of identifying the best model during training that aligns with the Noise2Inverse method. During validation, we compare the model output of the multiple reconstructions among each other. We hypothesize that the best model is the one that produces images with the highest similarity, implying a convergence in the predicted material properties and absorption values. To compare model outputs, we consider the absolute error, square error, structural similarity index (SSIM), peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR), and cosine similarity. We evaluate our method on two simulated tomography datasets and two, real-world, low-contrast, high-energy x-ray tomography datasets. We show our approach is more effective at determining the best model, up to an increase of 12.50% and 12.53% in SSIM and PSNR, respectively, while only requiring a fifth of the training time compared to the original approach.

CT↗
NASA NTRS2019

Closure Relations of Gamma-Ray Bursts in High Energy Emission

The synchrotron external shock model predicts the evolution of the spectral (β) and temporal (α) indices during the gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglow for different environmental density profiles, electron spectral indices, electron cooling regimes, and regions of the spectrum. We study the relationship between α and β, the so-called “closure relations” with GRBs detected by Fermi Large Area Telescope (Fermi-LAT) from 2008 August to 2018 August. The spectral and temporal indices for the >100 MeV emission from the Fermi-LAT as determined in the Second Fermi-LAT Gamma-Ray Burst Catalog (2FLGC) are used in this work. We select GRBs whose spectral and temporal indices are well constrained (58 long-duration GRBs and 1 short-duration GRBs) and classify each GRB into the best-matched relation. As a result, we found that a number of GRBs require a very small fraction of the total energy density contained in the magnetic field (òB <~10−7). The estimated mean and standard deviation of electron spectral index p are 2.40 and 0.44, respectively. The GRBs satisfying a closure relation of the slow cooling tend to have a softer p value compared to those of the fast cooling. Moreover, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test of the two p distributions from the fast and slow coolings rejects a hypothesis that the two distributions are drawn from the single reference distribution with a significance of 3.2σ. Lastly, the uniform density medium is preferred over the medium that decreases like the inverse of distance squared for long-duration GRBs.

Gamma-ray bursts↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mechanisms of Asymmetric Membrane Formation in Nonsolvent-Induced Phase Separation

We report the first simulations of nonsolvent-induced phase separation (NIPS) that predict membrane microstructures with graded asymmetric pore size distribution. In NIPS, a polymer solution film is immersed in a nonsolvent bath, enriching the film in nonsolvent, and leading to phase separation that forms a solid polymer-rich membrane matrix and polymer-poor membrane pores. We demonstrate how mass-transfer-induced spinodal decomposition, thermal fluctuations, and glass-transition dynamics implemented with mobility contrast between the polymer-rich and polymer-poor phases are essential to the formation of asymmetric membrane microstructures. Specifically, we show that the competition between the propagation of the phase-separation and glass-transition fronts determines the degree of pore-size asymmetry. In conclusion, we also explore the sensitivity of these microstructures to the initial film composition, and compare their formation in 2D and 3D.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine-learning Kohn–Sham potential from dynamics in time-dependent Kohn–Sham systems

Abstract The construction of a better exchange-correlation potential in time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) can improve the accuracy of TDDFT calculations and provide more accurate predictions of the properties of many-electron systems. Here, we propose a machine learning method to develop the energy functional and the Kohn–Sham potential of a time-dependent Kohn–Sham (TDKS) system is proposed. The method is based on the dynamics of the Kohn–Sham system and does not require any data on the exact Kohn–Sham potential for training the model. We demonstrate the results of our method with a 1D harmonic oscillator example and a 1D two-electron example. We show that the machine-learned Kohn–Sham potential matches the exact Kohn–Sham potential in the absence of memory effect. Our method can still capture the dynamics of the Kohn–Sham system in the presence of memory effects. The machine learning method developed in this article provides insight into making better approximations of the energy functional and the Kohn–Sham potential in the TDKS system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Negative Effects of Carbon-Binder Networks from Electrochemical Performance of Porous Li-Ion Electrodes

Porous Li-ion electrodes contain active particles, ion transporting electrolyte, and carbon-binder networks. While macrohomogeneous models are often used to predict electrode behavior, accurate predictions remain challenging, owing to the incomplete understanding of the critical role of carbon-binder networks and how they affect the electrochemical response. The present study systematically characterizes these effects in terms of effective properties by utilizing macrohomogeneous models to analyze the measured responses for electrodes with different carbon-binder content, electrode thickness, and porosity but with identical materials. We find that the impact of the carbon-binder network is more severe than previously thought. Even for low carbon-binder content (5 %wt. dry electrode), the presence of the network decreases the reaction area and increases the ion transport resistance, negatively impacting electrode performance. These effects scale with not just porosity or active material volume but also with carbon-binder content. The findings underscore the importance of connecting all effective properties to electrode specifications in a full factorial sense to transform the electrode design paradigm.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A full year of aerosol size distribution data from the central Arctic under an extreme positive Arctic Oscillation: insights from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition

Abstract. The Arctic environment is rapidly changing due to accelerated warming in the region. The warming trend is driving a decline in sea ice extent, which thereby enhances feedback loops in the surface energy budget in the Arctic. Arctic aerosols play an important role in the radiative balance and hence the climate response in the region, yet direct observations of aerosols over the Arctic Ocean are limited. In this study, we investigate the annual cycle in the aerosol particle number size distribution (PNSD), particle number concentration (PNC), and black carbon (BC) mass concentration in the central Arctic during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. This is the first continuous, year-long data set of aerosol PNSD ever collected over the sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean. We use a k-means cluster analysis, FLEXPART simulations, and inverse modeling to evaluate seasonal patterns and the influence of different source regions on the Arctic aerosol population. Furthermore, we compare the aerosol observations to land-based sites across the Arctic, using both long-term measurements and observations during the year of the MOSAiC expedition (2019–2020), to investigate interannual variability and to give context to the aerosol characteristics from within the central Arctic. Our analysis identifies that, overall, the central Arctic exhibits typical seasonal patterns of aerosols, including anthropogenic influence from Arctic haze in winter and secondary aerosol processes in summer. The seasonal pattern corresponds to the global radiation, surface air temperature, and timing of sea ice melting/freezing, which drive changes in transport patterns and secondary aerosol processes. In winter, the Norilsk region in Russia/Siberia was the dominant source of Arctic haze signals in the PNSD and BC observations, which contributed to higher accumulation-mode PNC and BC mass concentrations in the central Arctic than at land-based observatories. We also show that the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO) phenomenon, which was reported to achieve a record-breaking positive phase during January–March 2020, explains the unusual timing and magnitude of Arctic haze across the Arctic region compared to longer-term observations. In summer, the aerosol PNCs of the nucleation and Aitken modes are enhanced; however, concentrations were notably lower in the central Arctic over the ice pack than at land-based sites further south. The analysis presented herein provides a current snapshot of Arctic aerosol processes in an environment that is characterized by rapid changes, which will be crucial for improving climate model predictions, understanding linkages between different environmental processes, and investigating the impacts of climate change in future Arctic aerosol studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hydrodynamics of Two-Phase Flows through Porous Media in Microgravity: Packed Bed Reactor Experiment onboard of the International Space Station

The objective of the Packed Bed Reactor Experiment was to develop a fundamental understanding of the hydrodynamics of two-phase flow with no phase transition through porous media in microgravity. This work describes two experimental campaigns flown on the International Space Station (ISS) that were designed to achieve the objective. This work presents the results on flow patterns observed, two-phase flow pressure drop in porous media, and the impact of capillary effects on pressure drop at various gas and liquid flow rates. This work is the first to present predictive correlations of the two-phase friction factor for the different regimes identified based on the superficial liquid and gas velocity in microgravity, the first to hypothesize the different regimes based on the change in slope of the pressure gradient versus flow rate plots, the first to address the effects of the capillarity on the pressure gradient and the first to measure column holdup and assess the effective porosity based on the packing and the trapped gas bubbles. Experimental data on pressure drop in gas (N2) – liquid (water) flow show the presence of four different flow regimes in microgravity. Dispersed bubble flow (DB) and pulse (P) flow regimes are detected at high liquid flow rates, whereas at low liquid flow rates “large bubble” or elongated bubble (LB) and “gas channeling” (GC) regimes are observed. For these different flow regimes, different two-phase flow friction factor and pressure gradient correlations are presented for the first time as a function of the gas and liquid modified Reynolds numbers and Suratman number. Within the viscous-capillary (V-C) regime, it is found that the capillary contribution is the dominant force that contributes to the pressure drop for the wetting case (glass). However, for the non-wetting packing (Teflon), the viscous contribution dominates. It was found that the gas hold-up and pressure drop are functions of bed history at low liquid and gas flow rates with the magnitude of the hysteresis decreasing with increasing flow rates. PBRE-2 results show that the capillary force is a strong function of the superficial liquid velocity but is a much weaker function of the superficial gas velocity and varies inversely with the particle diameter. Within the Viscous-Capillary (V-C) regime, over 90% of the pressure gradient is attributed to the capillary contribution in the gas continuous regime. However, in the large bubble regime, the viscous and capillary contributions were comparable. After the completion of PBRE-2 with glass spherical beads, another bed packed with alumina was installed. Pressure gradient data for the alumina packed bed (PBRE-Water Recovery) were transferred to the PI and were not analyzed by the authors of this work. The Packed Bed Reactor Experiment concluded its on-orbit operation after two successful campaigns of testing in 2017 and in 2021. The flight hardware was brought back from orbit and is being reconditioned for a series of future experiments referred to as PBRE-WRS in support of water recovery (WRS). The WRS series consists of testing different two-phase fluid system components and packed beds to assess their pressure gradient characteristics, which will be used for designing packed bed reactors for various applications relevant to life support. Although there is so much relevance of the experimental results obtained from the two PBRE campaign in microgravity to life support, these findings also apply to other applications that involve two phase flow in porous medium such as fuel cells, transport of nutrient to plants in space and other chemical and materials processing that involve two phase flows. These systems operate differently in microgravity because, due to the lack of buoyancy, the density difference between the phases becomes irrelevant and no longer leads to phase separation.

Packed Bed↗
NASA NTRS2011

Failure Modes in Capacitors When Tested Under a Time-Varying Stress

Power-on failure has been the prevalent failure mechanism for solid tantalum capacitors in decoupling applications. A surge step stress test (SSST) has been previously applied to identify the critical stress level of a capacitor batch to give some predictability to the power-on failure mechanism [1]. But SSST can also be viewed as an electrically destructive test under a time-varying stress (voltage). It consists of rapidly charging the capacitor with incremental voltage increases, through a low resistance in series, until the capacitor under test is electrically shorted. When the reliability of capacitors is evaluated, a highly accelerated life test (HALT) is usually adopted since it is a time-efficient method of determining the failure mechanism; however, a destructive test under a time-varying stress such as SSST is even more time efficient. It usually takes days or weeks to complete a HALT test, but it only takes minutes for a time-varying stress test to produce failures. The advantage of incorporating a specific time-varying stress profile into a statistical model is significant in providing an alternative life test method for quickly revealing the failure mechanism in capacitors. In this paper, a time-varying stress that mimics a typical SSST has been incorporated into the Weibull model to characterize the failure mechanism in different types of capacitors. The SSST circuit and transient conditions for correctly surge testing capacitors are discussed. Finally, the SSST was applied for testing Ta capacitors, polymer aluminum capacitors (PA capacitors), and multi-layer ceramic (MLC) capacitors with both precious metal electrodes (PME) and base metal electrodes (BME). The test results are found to be directly associated with the dielectric layer breakdown in Ta and PA capacitors and are independent of the capacitor values, the way the capacitors were built, and the capacitors manufacturers. The test results also show that MLC capacitors exhibit surge breakdown voltages much higher than the rated voltage and that the breakdown field is inversely proportional to the dielectric layer thickness. The SSST data can also be used to comparatively evaluate the voltage robustness of capacitors for decoupling applications.

Liu, David (Donhang)↗
NASA NTRS2020

Revisiting the Relationship between Atlantic Dust and Tropical Cyclone Activity using Aerosol Optical Depth Reanalyses: 2003-2018

Previous studies have noted a relationship between African dust and Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, due to the limitations of past dust analyses, the strength of this relationship remains uncertain. The emergence of aerosol reanalyses, including the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) reanalysis, NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and ECMWF Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reanalysis (CAMSRA), enables an investigation of the relationship between African dust and TC activity over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in a consistent temporal and spatial manner for 2003–2018. Although June–July–August (JJA) 550 nm dust AOD (DAOD) from all three reanalysis products correlates significantly over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, the difference in DAOD magnitude between products can be as large as 60 % over the Caribbean and 20 % over the tropical North Atlantic. Based on the three individual reanalyses, we have created an aerosol multi-reanalysis consensus (MRC). The MRC presents overall better root mean square error over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean compared to individual reanalyses when verified with ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) AOD measurements. Each of the three individual reanalyses and the MRC have significant negative correlations between JJA Caribbean DAOD and seasonal Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), while the correlation between JJA tropical North Atlantic DAOD and seasonal ACE is weaker. Possible reasons for this regional difference are provided. A composite analysis of 3 high-JJA-Caribbean-DAOD years versus 3 low-JJA-Caribbean-DAOD years reveals large differences in overall Atlantic TC activity. We also show that JJA Caribbean DAOD is significantly correlated with large-scale fields associated with variability in interannual Atlantic TC activity including zonal wind shear, mid-level moisture, and sea surface temperature (SST), as well as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), implying confounding effects of these factors on the dust–TC relationship. We find that seasonal Atlantic DAOD and the AMM, the leading mode of coupled Atlantic variability, are inversely related and intertwined in the dust–TC relationship. Overall, DAOD in both the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean is negatively correlated with Atlantic hurricane frequency and intensity, with stronger correlations in the Caribbean than farther east in the tropical North Atlantic.

Dust particles↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Properties for a Mechanistic, Predictive Understanding of Aqueous Impact on Aging of Medium and Low Voltage AC and DC Cabling in Nuclear Power Plants

To address the gap in knowledge in understanding degradation in relevant service conditions, this project aimed to develop a mechanistic, predictive model of medium and low voltage cable failure based on the primary environmental degradation parameters of aqueous immersion time, temperature, and the oxidation extent. To do so, we took a two-fold approach toward evaluating degradation as related to the aqueous condition. First, we evaluated the chemical, mechanical, and electrical properties of polymers that comprise the cabling insulation under varied aqueous conditions at different temperatures. Secondly, we evaluated the performance of insulation materials under similar accelerated aging conditions in addition to the dielectric breakdown of the cabling under submersion conditions. Thermal oxidation and immersion of LDPE thin films were done using a Parr vessel and the extent of oxidation was monitored using the carbonyl index from ATR-FTIR spectrum, a ratio quantifying the carbonyl functionality produced on the LDPE film surface. Increasing the temperature, oxidation time, and oxygen pressure increased the water-vapor permeability and the carbonyl content. Thermogravimetric analysis of the films confirmed that there is indeed an initial weight loss of the smaller molecular weight molecules and volatiles. At higher temperatures, there is a secondary mass loss. Up to 70°C, the mass loss curves were similar until 80°C, when the aged films decreased at a much greater rate with respect to increasing temperature. This was seen in the 10, 50, 90% weight loss temperatures. The mechanical properties of sheet PP and HDPE as well as injection molded LDPE, HDPE, HDPP dog bones were plotted with respect to the time spent in the Parr vessel during thermal oxidation. For the sheet PP and HDPE, the UTS and the modulus of elasticity decreased while the elongation increased. The injection-molded LDPE, HDPE, and HDPP dog bones experienced a similar trend where the changes in the properties were within experimental uncertainty. This analysis of LDPE in dry and immersive oxygen-rich environments is an important baseline for future experiments looking at other degradation mechanisms. A predictive aging model for low-density polyethylene insulative cable housings was developed. This model revealed a combination of physical and chemical processes which lead to an increase in permeability and a decrease in strength of the insulator. In creating this predictive model, a gap of knowledge in the literature was revealed in two areas: understanding how the crystallinity of a polymer changes with time and visualizing the predicted pores formed through the insulator which leads to failure. Developing and using an adapted ATR-FTIR method, crystallinity was monitored and compared to bulk crystallinity found via DSC. Inhomogeneity in crystallinity changes were observed but the FTIR method but was found to be less reliable. Pore visualization was found utilizing electrical impedance spectroscopy saturated aged polyethylene films with synthesized citrate-capped gold nanoparticles, and chloroauric acid precursor. results indicate a decreasing impedance of the polyethylene films caused by the transport of ions through the film. SEM imaging was then performed for elemental analysis of the films and counter electrodes for the presence of ions. Chloride and gold ions were detected; however, no nanoparticles were found. This gives an estimated pore size of at least 0.3 nm through the aged film. Cyclic submergence of polyethylene and polypropylene in aqueous solutions of copper sulfate and Harrison’s solution were examined. It was discovered that aging in these mixed conditions and at 90°C did cause a small, yet significant increase to tensile strength for both unaged polyethylene and polypropylene. The PE and PP in cycled and submerged conditions did not have tensile strengths significantly different from dry-aged after 16 weeks. For both solutions, it was determined that capacitance increases with both water tree depth and cable temperature and is relatively independent of changing water tree AR. As for resistance, there is no apparent change between depth percentages of 10 and 80 for both solutions. This is because the water tree has not yet entered the conductor and thus there is no shorting current flowing through the tree yet. Between 80 and 100% water tree depth, it is observed that for both solutions there is a rapid decrease in resistance because the tree is now impacting the conductor shield and allowing shorting current to flow through it. The relationship between resistance and temperature was found to be inversed. As temperature increases, resistance decreases for both water tree solutions with distilled water having the most apparent difference across the range of temperatures simulated. With regards to water tree AR, resistance was found to be relatively independent at depth percentages of 10, 50, and 70, but there was some relationship at 100% depth for both solutions. At this depth, as water tree AR increased, resistance was found to also increase. Through the examination of voltage and electric field distribution plots, it was confirmed for EPR cables that increasing water tree depth leads to increasing distortion. The increase in shorting current at 100% depth for aqueous copper sulfate compared to distilled water was also visualized. Lastly, the relationship between shorting current and temperature for narrow water trees was visualized and validated using the distribution plots. This study has led to a better understanding of the effect of cable temperature, water tree solution, and geometry of the tree region on cable degradation. Furthermore, this study has documented simulation results of water tree degradation in EPR MV cables, which had been previously lacking in information. Future work in this area will add frequency into the mix and examine what effect it has on the rate of cable degradation as a result of water treeing. To compliment the work being carried by UMD on different polymer chemistries, harvested medium voltage (MV) cables were selected for accelerated aging study at ORNL. These medium voltage cables are representative of the vintages and materials that are currently in use at existing nuclear power plants (NPPs). These cables were immersed in water at 90°C and energized for a period of two years at elevated voltage. Partial discharge was measured during this period of time to track potential degradation. Unfortunately, due to the absence of failure, the extent of integration between the UMD techniques and the harvested MV insulation was limited. However, based on the findings and from the UMD research in the previous sections on polyethylene and polypropylene, follow-on characterization for harvested MV cable insulation should focus on sample preparation to take advantage of the UMD techniques to better understand mechanistic degradation in MV cable insulations. This would include: 1.) Utilization of solutions and impedance measurement insulation to track permeability in harvested and accelerated aging insulation samples, 2.) Adaptation of gold nanoparticle synthesis for electrical impedance spectroscopy with supporting SEM characterization to study pore formation in harvested and accelerated aged insulation samples, & 3.) ATR-FTIR crystallinity with multiple temperature dependent harvested MV cable insulation under different air and submerged accelerated aging. In addition, low voltage dielectric spectroscopy and high voltage dissipation factor, tan δ, could be implemented as a condition monitoring tool for harvested MV cable insulation in submerged environments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust scalable initialization for Bayesian variational inference with multi-modal Laplace approximations

Predictive modeling typically relies on Bayesian model calibration to provide uncertainty quantification. Variational inference utilizing fully independent (“mean-field”) Gaussian distributions are often used as approximate probability density functions. This simplification is attractive since the number of variational parameters grows only linearly with the number of unknown model parameters. However, the resulting diagonal covariance structure and unimodal behavior can be too restrictive to provide useful approximations of intractable Bayesian posteriors that exhibit highly non-Gaussian behavior, including multimodality. High-fidelity surrogate posteriors for these problems can be obtained by considering the family of Gaussian mixtures. Gaussian mixtures are capable of capturing multiple modes and approximating any distribution to an arbitrary degree of accuracy, while maintaining some analytical tractability. Unfortunately, variational inference using Gaussian mixtures with full-covariance structures suffers from a quadratic growth in variational parameters with the number of model parameters. The existence of multiple local minima due to strong nonconvex trends in the loss functions often associated with variational inference present additional complications, These challenges motivate the need for robust initialization procedures to improve the performance and computational scalability of variational inference with mixture models. In this work, we propose a method for constructing an initial Gaussian mixture model approximation that can be used to warm-start the iterative solvers for variational inference. The procedure begins with a global optimization stage in model parameter space. In this step, local gradient-based optimization, globalized through multistart, is used to determine a set of local maxima, which we take to approximate the mixture component centers. Around each mode, a local Gaussian approximation is constructed via the Laplace approximation. Finally, the mixture weights are determined through constrained least squares regression. The robustness and scalability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through application to an ensemble of synthetic tests using high-dimensional, multimodal probability density functions. Here, the practical aspects of the approach are demonstrated with inversion problems in structural dynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Bayesian Approach for In-Situ Stress Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification for Subsurface Engineering

Many subsurface engineering applications require accurate knowledge of the in-situ state of stress for their safe design and operation. Existing methods to meet this need primarily include field measurements for estimating one or more of the principal stresses from a borehole, or optimization methods for constructing a 3D geomechanical model in terms of geophysical measurements. These methods, however, often contain considerable uncertainty in estimating the state of stress. Here, in this paper, we build on a Bayesian approach to quantify uncertainty in stress estimations for subsurface engineering applications. This approach can provide an estimate of the 3D distribution of stress throughout the volume of interest and provide an estimate of the uncertainty arising from the stress measurement, the rheology parameters, and a paucity of measurements. The value of this approach is demonstrated using stress measurements from the In Salah carbon storage site, which was one of the world’s first industrial carbon capture and storage projects. This demonstration shows the application of this Bayesian approach for estimating the initial state of stress for In Salah and quantifying the uncertainty in the estimated stress. Also, an assessment of a maximum injection pressure to prevent geomechanical risks from CO 2 injection pressures is provided in terms of the probability distribution of the minimum principal stress quantified by the approach. With the In Salah case study, this paper demonstrates that using the Bayesian approach can provide additional insights for site explorations and/or project operations to make informed-site decisions for subsurface engineering applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Predicting Cancer Risk from Ionizing Radiation

The ability to predict cancer risk associated with exposure to low doses of high-LET ionizing radiation (IR) remains a challenge. Epidemiological methods lack the sensitivity and power to provide detailed risk estimates for cancer and ignore individual variance in IR sensitivity. We have hypothesized that DNA repair capacity can be used as a marker to evaluate and differentiate individual radiation sensitivity. More specifically, this work is based on the concept that the combined time-dose dependence of radiation-induced foci (RIF) of p53-binding protein 1 (53BP1) following low-LET exposure contains sufficient information to infer sensitivity to any other LET. Our hypothesis was tested in 15 different mouse strains as well as in primary human immune cells. We first approached individual ionizing radiation sensitivity in a mouse model by culturing primary skin fibroblasts extracted from 76 mice of 15 different genetic backgrounds and exposing them to HZE particles and X-rays. This work is one of the most extensive studies on the kinetics and possible genetic underpinnings of radiation-induced DNA damage and repair. Our results is in agreement with a DNA repair model we previously postulated, where nearby DNA double strand breaks (DSB) in the nucleus are brought together for more efficient repair, leading to RIF clustering. Such mechanism was evidenced by a specific dose and LET dependence of RIF numbers. Briefly, RIF quantification after low-LET X-ray exposure showed an asymptotic saturation for doses between 1 Gy and 4 Gy 4 hours post-irradiation across all 15 strains. The clustering of DSB across all strains also led to more RIF/Gy for lower LET (X-ray and 350 MeV/n Ar) than for higher LET (600 MeV/n Fe) 4 hours post-exposure. Considering the fact that the number of DSB/Gy should be independent of LET, our data suggest there are more DSB in individual RIF as the LET increases. RIF numbers for 24 and 48 hours post-exposure led to the inverse trend, with more remaining RIF/Gy for higher LET (by 600 MeV/n Fe). This result suggests cells have more difficulty resolving RIF from higher LET as they the number DSB/RIF increases. Note that for most conditions, the variance of RIF/Gy was small within individual animals of the same strain and large between strains, suggesting a strong genetics component. Furthermore, we present our preliminary data from an ongoing study on human genetic associations with IR sensitivity. To address the human variability in responses to HZE particle irradiation in a maximally comprehensive manner, we are in the process of collecting and isolating primary blood mononuclear cells from 768 healthy subjects of European descent, 18-75 years of age, 50/50 male/female distribution. We have analyzed 53BP1+ RIF formation as well as oxidative stress and cell death in primary cells from 192 subjects in response to the same HZE particles as used in mice: 600 MeV/n Fe, 350 MeV/n Ar and 350 MeV/n Si, 1.1 and 3 particles/100m2, 4 and 24 hours after irradiation. We will next complete the quantification of HZE particle-induced DNA and cellular damage in the remaining subjects and compare it to their responses to low-LET irradiation. Finally, we will perform GWAS analysis to identify human genomic associations with IR sensitivity and potential targets for biomarker development.

High-LET radiation↗
NASA NTRS1999

Characterization of Climate Change and Variability with GPS

We compared zonal mean specific humidity derived from the 21 June-4 July 1995 Global Positioning System (GPS)/MET occultation observations with that derived from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global analyses. The GPS/MET results indicate a drier troposphere, especially near the subtropical tradewind inversion. A small, moist bias in the GPS/MET upper northern-hemisphere troposphere compared to ECMWF may be due to a small radiosonde temperature bias. A diagram shows the difference (g/kg) between the GPS/MET zonal mean specific humidity and that for June-August derived from 1963-1973 radiosondes. Although the observing period is short, GPS and ECMWF results both indicate a significantly wetter boundary layer at most latitudes consistent with decadal trends observed in radiosonde data. GPS/MET results exhibit higher tropical convective available potential energy (CAPE), suggesting a more vigorous tropical Hadley circulation. Drier, free troposphere air in the descending branches of the Hadley circulation is due in part to a moist radiosonde bias but may also reflect some negative moisture feedback. Using 1992-1997 ground GPS observations and recent advancements in GPS technology, we removed an apparent altimetric drift (-1.2 +/- 0.4 mm/yr) due to columnar water vapor from the Topography (Ocean) Experiment (TOPEX) microwave radiometer, which brought the TOPEX mean sea level change estimates into better agreement with historical tide gauge records, suggesting global mean sea level is rising at a rate of 1.5-2.0 mm/yr. We can also discern a statistically significant increase of 0.2 +/- 0.1 kg/square m/yr in mean columnar water vapor over the ocean from 1992-1997. Optimal fingerprinting can be used for the detection and attribution of tropospheric warming due to an anthropogenic greenhouse. Optimal fingerprinting distinguishes between different types of signals according to their spatial and temporal patterns, while minimizing the influence of natural climate variability. S. Leroy concludes that the signal-to-noise ratio of global warming detection increases by unity approximately every 10 years if a single oceanic region is chosen. Less time for detection is likely when many global regions are considered simultaneously. GPS occultation constellations allow the possibility of detecting small changes in upper air temperature with inconsequential calibration errors, making occultation an ideal data type for global warming detection studies. Our initial study of a 22-GHz satellite-satellite occultation system predicts upper troposphere moisture sensitivities of 3-5 ppmv and 1-2 percent in the middle and lower troposphere. Additional information contained in original.

Kursinski, R.↗