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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

In situ deformation of antigorite-olivine two-phase mixtures: Implications for dynamics and seismic anisotropy in the mantle wedge

Water released from hydrous minerals in subducting slabs reacts with the overlying plate, resulting in widespread serpentinization in the mantle wedge. Deformation of serpentinized peridotites has been invoked to explain forearc seismic anisotropy, yet studies of the mechanical properties and deformation behaviors of serpentine-bearing multiphase aggregates remain limited. Here we deformed olivine-antigorite mixtures containing 70, 50, and 20 vol.% of antigorite at 2.5 – 7.6 GPa, 673 K and strain rates of ∼10 –5 –10 –4 s –1 . Elasto-viscoplastic self-consistent simulations, constrained by synchrotron X-ray diffraction (XRD) data, were used to estimate lattice strain, stress–strain partitioning, crystallographic preferred orientations (CPO) development, and aggregate strength. Selected run products were also analyzed by electron backscatter diffraction for comparison with the CPO results obtained from XRD experiments. We found olivine transitions from A- or B-type to C-type when antigorite fraction drops to 20 vol.%, coinciding with a microstructural change from interconnected weak layers to a load-bearing framework (LBF). An additional run on a sample Atg50/Ol50 with preexisting microstructures suggested the formation of LBF was promoted by these microstructures, although the preexisting antigorite CPO has been overprinted at 20.8 % strain and could be erased completely by subsequent deformation in nature. Estimated viscosity of the two-phase mixtures suggests that low-degree serpentinization (≤20 %) in the mantle wedge may increase the strength of olivine-rich peridotite and hinder slab-mantle decoupling, whereas high-degree serpentinization (≥50–70 %) weakens the peridotite and favors decoupling if sufficient viscosity contrast (>10) develops. Seismic anisotropy shows a nonlinear dependence on antigorite fraction: antigorite CPO governs the anisotropy of the mixtures with ≥50 vol.% antigorite, whereas olivine CPO dominates at low fractions (∼20 vol.%). The presence of pre-existing microstructures reduces seismic anisotropy of the deformed mixtures, however the persistence of pre-existing CPO in actively subducting slabs remains uncertain, making their significance over geological timescales questionable.

Crystallographic preferred orientation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Design analysis of a particle-based thermal energy storage system for concentrating solar power or grid energy storage

Energy storage is becoming indispensable for expanding renewable energy integration, and it is critical to the future low-carbon energy supply. Large-capacity, grid scale energy storage can support the integration of solar and wind power and support grid resilience with the diminishing capacity of baseload fossil power plants. With the development of thermal energy storage (TES) for concentrating solar power systems, standalone TES for grid integration becomes attractive due to the declining renewable generation cost and an increasing need for energy storage. The standalone TES system introduced in this paper can play a big role in the carbon-free energy future with capacity larger than batteries and cost likely lower than other energy storage methods such as pumped storage hydropower and compressed air energy storage, both of which also have geological limitations. To this end, we describe a TES system that uses stable, inexpensive solid particles as a TES media to provide scalable, low cost energy storage. The particle-based TES has the ability to drive various thermal power cycles including conventional steam-Rankine, air Brayton turbine with combined-cycle ability, or the emerging supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton power cycle. This work describes the containment design method including a concrete silo and an internal-insulation layer for the particle-TES system. The economic analysis shows significantly low storage cost when the particle-TES is integrated with Brayton combined-cycle power generation. The paper shows the design approach of the particle-TES system and its economic potential for bulk energy storage. The advantage of the particle-TES system as a promising bulk energy storage method is its ability to economically support dispatchable renewable grid penetration for larger capacity and longer discharging hours than current battery storage technologies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of CO 2 trapping mechanisms in partially depleted oil-bearing sands

The goal of this work is to evaluate various CO 2 sequestration mechanisms occurring in the Morrow B Sandstone in the Farnsworth Unit. A history-matched numerical simulation model was created using extensive geological, petrophysical, and operational data collected from the field. The numerical model is competent to investigate the impact of residual, structural-stratigraphic, solubility, and mineral trapping mechanisms on the fluid transportation dynamics and petrophysical property variations. The model forecasts the field response of 20 years of WAG injections. Afterward, all wells were shut-in, and the reservoir was allowed to evolve for 1000 years to investigate the fate of injected CO 2 . In this paper, we assess the impacts of various trapping mechanisms on oil recovery and CO 2 storage efficacy. By analyzing the results reported from the numerical simulation model, the in-situ fluid composition and mineralogy changes are also investigated. More importantly, we seek to confirm the petrophysical property variations due to the CO 2 injection with observations from laboratory measurements. The experiences gained from this study provide valuable insights regarding physiochemical storage induced by the CO 2 injection activities and serve as a benchmark case for future CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects involving reactive solute transport.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inter-well connectivity detection in CO 2 WAG projects using statistical recurrent unit models

Routine well-wise injection and production measurements contain significant information on subsurface structure and properties. Data-driven technology that interprets surface data into subsurface structure or properties can assist operators in making informed decisions by providing a better understanding of field assets. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO 2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. SRU is a special type of recurrent neural network (RNN) that allows for better characterization of temporal trends, by learning various statistics of the input at different time scales. In our application, the complete states (injection rate, pressure and cumulative injection) at injectors and pressure states at producers are fed to SRU as the input and the phase rates at producers are treated as the output. Once the SRU is trained and validated, it is then used to assess the connectivity of each injector to any producer using permutation variable importance method, wherein inputs corresponding to an injector are shuffled and the increase in prediction error at a given producer is recorded as the importance (connectivity metric) of the injector to the producer. This method is tested in both synthetic and field-scale cases. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. This significantly improves confidence in our data-driven procedure. The novelty of this work is that it is purely data-driven method and can directly interpret routine surface measurements to intuitive subsurface knowledge. Furthermore, the streamline-based validation procedure provides physics-based backing to the results obtained from data analytics. This study results in a reliable and efficient data analytics framework that is well-suited for large field applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wettability variation and its impact on CO 2 storage capacity at the Wyoming CarbonSAFE storage hub: An experimental approach

Meeting global and national net zero carbon emission targets will require geologic carbon disposal. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has accordingly funded significant research in this area, including the Wyoming CarbonSAFE project at Dry Fork Station (DFS) in Campbell County, Wyoming. This work studied wettability on micro- and macro-scales, CO 2 storage potential, and the correlation between the two to support the Wyoming CarbonSAFE project’s subsurface assessment. During the study, a target formation’s wettability was found to affect how much CO 2 can be stored in a given formation. Here, in this study, representative rock samples were selected from the target storage formations— Lakota, Hulett, and Minnelusa—based on the heterogeneity of the lithology, permeability, and porosity of the respective formations. The rock samples are all fine-grained sandstone with variable cementation and bedding structure, including different scales of laminated bedding. The porosity and permeability vary within the range of 9.0–14.3% and 0.1–28.9 mD, respectively. These rock samples were prepared for the micro-scale wettability (contact angle measurement), macro-scale wettability (wettability index derived from unsteady-state flow characterization for the core plugs), and CO 2 storage evaluation. The macro-scale experiments suggested that wettability appeared to dominate the CO 2 storage potential performance during the drainage process, where less water-wet behavior promoted higher CO 2 storage potential. The micro-scale wettability tests showed that the rock samples at the studied reservoir conditions behaved water-wet and became more water-wet as pressure increased. This kind of wettability change discourages further CO 2 storage potential yet benefits the CO 2 residual trapping as the CO 2 injection proceeds for the studied area. The results allow the recommendation of the best reservoir candidate for storage based on wettability that affects CO 2 storage. The work presented in this study provides valuable insights into wettability’s effect on the CO 2 storage capacity and wettability’s importance when identifying the optimal CO 2 storage formation to meet the project’s goals.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Oxidation and Associated Pore Structure Modification During Experimental Alteration of Granite

Weathering plays a crucial role in a number of environmental processes, and the microstructure and evolution of multi-scale pore space is a critically important factor in the weathering of geological formations. In igneous rocks the infiltration of meteoric water into initially relatively dry material can cause the rock to begin to disaggregate, increasing porosity and surface area, and allowing further disaggregation and weathering to occur. These processes, in turn, allow biota to colonize the rock, further enhancing the weathering rate. In some igneous rocks this may be driven by oxidation of primary minerals. One such mineral, biotite, has been repeatedly mentioned as a cause of cracking during oxidation. However, the scale-dependence of the processes by which this occurs are poorly understood. We cannot, therefore, accurately extrapolate laboratory reaction rates to the field in predictive numerical models. In order to better understand the effects of oxidation and test the hypothesis that fracture and disaggregation are initiated by swelling of oxidizing biotites, we reacted granite cores in a selenic acid-rich aqueous solution at 200°C for up to 438 days. Elevated temperatures and selenic acid were used to provide relatively fast reaction rates and highly oxidizing conditions in sealed reaction vessels. These experiments were analyzed using a combination of imaging, X-ray diffraction, Mössbauer spectroscopy, and small- and ultra-small angle neutron scattering to interrogate porosity and microfracture formation. The experimental results show little observable biotite swelling, but significant transport and growth of iron oxides and/or clays along grain boundaries throughout the sample. Significant increases in porosity were also observed at the sample rim, likely associated with feldspar alteration. Fractures and transport were observed throughout the core, suggesting that stresses due to crystallization pressures caused by the growing iron phases may be the initiating factors in granite weathering, possibly followed by biotite swelling after sufficient permeability is achieved.

Anovitz, Lawrence M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Clumped 13 CH 2 D and 12 CHD 2 compositions of methyl groups from wood and synthetic monomers: Methods, experimental and theoretical calibrations, and initial results

Methyl groups are found in numerous biogenic and synthetic materials including geologically preserved materials such as wood. The carbon and hydrogen isotope compositions of methyl groups are used as tracers in biogeochemical cycles, as paleothermometers, and to determine the hydrogen isotopic composition of ancient rain. Here we present analyses of resolved 13 C–D ( 13 CH 2 D) and D–D ( 12 CHD 2 ) clumped isotope compositions of methyl groups as new variables for the study of methyl groups in the present and past. We first present chemical methods to extract, purify, and derivatize methyl groups from methoxyl (R–O–CH 3 ) groups as CH 3 F and CH 3 Cl, and high-resolution mass spectrometric techniques to determine the clumped isotope compositions of these species. We achieve precisions for 13 C–D clumping of ±0.25‰ and D–D clumping of ±2.5‰. We anchor our clumped isotopic measurements to a thermodynamic reference frame by first calculating the theoretical temperature dependences of 13 C–D and D–D clumping in CH 3 Cl, then placing our measurements onto this reference frame through experimental internal isotopic equilibration of CH 3 Cl at 200 °C. Finally, we provide and analyze an initial dataset of clumped 13 C–D and D–D compositions of methyl groups from various commercial/synthetic monomers and environmental woods. We observe ranges in clumped isotope compositions of ~11‰ in 13 C–D and ~48‰ in D–D, and systematic differences within these ranges between methyl groups from commercial monomers and wood. Specifically, commercial clumped 13 C–D compositions are between 0 and 3‰, which correspond to apparent equilibrium temperatures between 170 °C and the infinite temperature limit. In contrast, the clumped 13 C–D compositions of wood methoxyl groups are distinctively high (9.50–11.25‰) and 3–6‰ higher than would be expected if formed in internal isotopic equilibrium at Earth-surface temperatures. Commercial/synthetic methyl and wood methoxyl clumped D–D compositions are also distinct: -5 to +13‰ in commercial monomers vs. -35 to -8‰ in wood—such negative values cannot result from formation in isotopic equilibrium and require kinetic processes to have occurred. Overall, these results indicate that wood methoxyl groups are formed out of isotopic equilibrium and that clumped isotope compositions of methyl groups may be useful tracers of methyl group sources and sinks in the environment. For instance, isotopic clumping in methyl groups may be useful for understanding controls on isotopic clumping in methane produced by methylotrophic methanogens.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the dissolution of a borosilicate glass with the use of isotopic tracing – Insights into the mechanism for the long-term dissolution rate

An understanding of the mechanisms responsible for controlling the long-term corrosion rate of nuclear waste glass is paramount if reliable glass dissolution models are to be used to calculate the controlled release of radionuclides from nuclear waste glass under geologic disposal conditions. Additionally, understanding silicate glass dissolution is also important for natural glasses to understand the role from the dissolution of these glasses has on the composition of natural aquatic systems. Two general mechanisms appear to be responsible for the elemental release from glass to the surrounding biosphere - ion exchange (release principally of alkalis) and matrix dissolution (release of the structural components of the glass). Key unknowns related to these mechanisms are the impact of surface layers on the altered glass and how these layers participate in corrosion. To better understand the impact of these layers on glass corrosion, we made two glasses of the same elemental composition, but with selected elements enriched in specific isotopes, e.g. more 10 B than 11 B. We reacted these glasses for 1 y then the solutions from each were exchanged and the chemistry of the solutions and the solids were followed for another 2 y and in some cases 3 y. This allowed us to follow changes in the glasses with respect to these elements and how these elements were transported through the alteration layers with time and, for at least one element, into the glass. Results from these experiments demonstrate that the release behavior of different elements is strongly dependent on their structural role in the glass (e.g. network formers and modifiers), but, more importantly, the role of water transport and subsequent ion exchange has in the long-term dissolution of the glass studied here. In this article, we highlight the behavior of four elements: lithium, sodium, silicon, and boron. Lithium and sodium, network modifying elements, have similar chemistries. The behavior of Li could be tracked in more detail by following both 6 Li and 7 Li; Li penetrates through the gel layer in both directions without hinderance and into and released from the glass deeper than sodium. Silicon, a network forming element, reacts with the silica-rich alteration layer. Boron, a network forming element, does not accumulate in the gel or the pristine glass and has a very sharp elemental profile between the pristine glass and alteration layer. Boron, lithium, and sodium elemental profiles suggest that there is little if any transport control within the alteration layer. The correlation between the Li and Na profiles and that of a water species suggest that the limiting release is a steady state between the diffusion of a water species and matrix dissolution that results in a low release rate for alkali and this provides a steady driving force for the long-term dissolution of glass.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Copper availability governs nitrous oxide accumulation in wetland soils and stream sediments

Denitrification is microbially-mediated through enzymes containing metal cofactors. Laboratory studies of pure cultures have highlighted that the availability of Cu, required for the multicopper enzyme nitrous oxide reductase, can limit N2O reduction. However, in natural aquatic systems, such as wetlands and hyporheic zones in stream beds, the role of Cu in controlling denitrification remains incompletely understood. In this study, we collected soils and sediments from three natural environments -- riparian wetlands, marsh wetlands, and a stream -- to investigate their nitrogen species transformation activity at background Cu levels and different supplemented Cu loadings. All of the systems contained solid-phase associated Cu below or around geological levels (40 - 280 nmol g-1) and exhibited low dissolved Cu (3-50 nM), which made them appropriate sites for evaluating the effect of limited Cu availability on denitrification. In laboratory incubation experiments, high concentrations of N2O accumulated in all microcosms lacking Cu amendment except for one stream sediment sample. With Cu added to provide dissolved concentrations at trace levels (10-300 nM), reduction rate of N2O to N 2 in the wetland soils and stream sediments was enhanced. A kinetic model could account for the trends in nitrogen species by combining the reactions for microbial reduction of NO 3 - to NO 2 -/N 2 O/N 2 and abiotic reduction of NO 2 - to N 2 . The model revealed that the rate of N 2 O to N 2 conversion increased significantly in the presence of Cu. For riparian wetland soils and stream sediments, the kinetic model also suggested that overall denitrification is driven by abiotic reduction of NO2- in the presence of inorganic electron donors. This study demonstrated that natural aquatic systems containing Cu at concentrations less than or equal to crustal abundances may display incomplete reduction of N 2 O to N 2 that would cause N 2 O accumulation and release to the atmosphere.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kinetic and equilibrium reactions on natural and laboratory generation of thermogenic gases from Type II marine shale

The phenomenon that laboratory pyrolysis experiments produce much wetter gases than those in natural reservoirs is a long-recognized and debated problem in the investigation of natural gases in sedimentary basins. In this study, we explore the discrepancy by pyrolyzing a type II kerogen from the Woodford Shale in Oklahoma, compared with the previous results on the produced natural gases from the Arkoma Basin generated from the same source rock (Liu et al., 2019) with the discussion of gas and isotopic compositions at bulk and position-specific (PS) levels. An improved GC-pyrolysis-GC IRMS method is applied for the determination of PS δ 13 C of propane produced in the pyrolysis of the Woodford Shale at Easy %R o from 0.76 to 3.27. Kinetic and thermodynamic considerations of the chemical and isotopic compositions of the natural and laboratory pyrolysis gases suggest that the generation of light hydrocarbons involves uni-directional cracking reactions, exchange reactions with water, and likely reversible reactions among light hydrocarbons and other H-containing volatiles. After the gas generation in the unconventional Woodford Shale reservoirs, the C 1 -C 4 gases might have approached close to chemical equilibrium of C 1 -C 3 and isotope equilibrium of C 2 -C 1 and C 3 -C 1 pairs at their peak temperatures. The capping H for the generation of C 1 -C 4 in the Woodford Shale gases appears to have experienced at least partial exchange with the water, while that in the pyrolysis gases is only originated from organic-bound compounds with large kinetic isotope effects (KIE). Our findings indicate that elevated compound-specific and PS δ 13 C values of propane in the wet-gas cracking stage are significantly influenced by the breakdown of the thermally stable compounds (e.g., remaining kerogen, residues). A first synthesis of PS δ 13 C and δ 2 H isotopic compositions of propane from this study and the literature data suggests relatively similar isotopic structures of propane precursors in kerogens. Finally, this study demonstrates that PS isotope analysis of propane can contribute to identifying various geological (e.g., maturation, wet-gas cracking, H exchange, diffusion) and biodegradation processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the fidelity of shallow-water carbonates as records of the Ni isotope composition of surface seawater

Nickel is a bioessential metal that is used in enzymes important to the C, N, and O cycles, and changes in its marine abundance and bioavailability may have affected the evolutionary trajectory of early life. Changes over time in the Ni isotope composition (δ 60 Ni) of surface seawater, which reflects biological demand for Ni, could allow for the reconstruction of the dynamics of Ni demand over Earth’s history, but this approach would require geologic records of surface seawater. Here, we investigate the fidelity of shallow-water carbonates as a record of the Ni isotope composition of surface seawater by determining how Ni is first partitioned into natural carbonates and then how post-depositional processes influence the Ni signal. Our samples come from the Great Bahama Bank, which is a well-studied, modern carbonate platform often used to study ancient platforms. We found that Ni is fractionated from seawater upon incorporation into carbonates capturing shallow (<18 cm), recent deposition (0.1 ‰–0.4 ‰ lighter than seawater). Variation among these [Ni] and δ 60 Ni values may be controlled by variation in mineral proportions. Meteoric diagenesis shifts δ 60 Ni to lower values, which we attribute to isotopically light meteoric fluids. In contrast, carbonates that experienced sediment-buffered marine diagenesis with respect to Ca isotopes and Sr/Ca ratios do not appear to differ in δ 60 Ni values from sediments generally representative of their initial deposition. The sensitivity of δ 60 Ni to diagenetic reset in these samples appears comparable to the sensitivities of Ca isotopes and Sr/Ca ratios, to first order. Thus, in general, carbonates that experienced sediment-buffered marine diagenesis with respect to these elements may hold the most promise as a record of the δ 60 Ni of coeval surface seawater. Additionally, we use our results to infer that the fraction of Ni removed from seawater into carbonates is less than 10 % of the total Ni output from the global oceans and incorporation of this Ni sink into global biogeochemical models will only have a minor impact on the modeled modern Ni budget.

Great Bahama Bank carbonates↗
DOE OSTI2026

The solubility of NdPO 4 and DyPO 4 and stability of Nd and Dy chloride and hydroxyl complexes as a function of pH and salinity to 450 °C

The mobility of rare earth elements (REE) in geological systems is often controlled by the stability of monazite and xenotime, which are important hosts for the light and heavy REE. These REE phosphates constitute important resources and provide information on ore formation conditions and timing due to their uses as geothermometers and geochronometers. While the thermodynamic properties for these minerals are well-established up to high temperature and pressure, the properties for the aqueous REE complexes are not well constrained with limited information up to 300 °C. In this study, the solubility of synthetic NdPO 4 and DyPO 4 endmembers were measured in hydrothermal sub- to supercritical NaCl-bearing aqueous solutions from 350 at saturated water vapor pressure to 450 °C at 700 bar. The speciation of Nd and Dy was determined in acidic to alkaline solutions (pH 25 °C values from 2 to 10), and indicates that the hydroxyl species REE(OH) 2 + and REE(OH) 3 0 predominate at low salinity (0.01 mol/kg NaCl) with some contribution of REE chloride species REECl 2+ and REECl 2 + in acidic fluids. The REE phosphate solubility measured in these experiments is up to two orders of magnitude higher than predicted using existing thermodynamic properties from literature for aqueous species extrapolated from lower temperature data to supercritical conditions. To address this discrepancy, the thermodynamic properties of the REE aqueous species were optimized using GEMSFITS to derive the formation constants for the REE chloride (β Cl ) and hydroxyl (β OH ) complexes in the studied temperature range. This study highlights the importance of the hydroxyl species REE(OH) 2 + and REE(OH) 3 0 over a wide range of pH and temperature. As a result, the revised thermodynamic properties for Dy and Nd chloride and hydroxyl species more accurately predict the solubility of NdPO 4 and DyPO 4 and provide insight into the speciation and mobility of the light and heavy REE in hydrothermal supercritical fluids in the crust.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Economic and operational investigation of CO 2 sequestration through enhanced oil recovery in unconventional reservoirs in Colorado, USA

The ongoing CCUS commercial projects are highly relied on the support of government incentives due to massive capital investment. Here, this study analyzes the economics of carbon capture utilization and sequestration (CCUS) projects, shows a state-wide CCUS deployment exercise, followed by simulation results of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) based CO 2 storage in unconventional reservoirs. The comprehensive economic analysis of capture, transportation, sequestration costs, enhanced 45Q tax credits, and EOR revenue implies the practicality of CO 2 -EOR to offset the high CCUS costs. With the economics understanding, we study the top CO 2 sources, existing CO 2 pipelines, and sequestration sinks in the state of Colorado, USA. This paper next presents results from EOR simulation in one section of the unconventional Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin Niobrara and Codell reservoirs. The simulation model is based on a geological static model, incorporated with hydraulic fracture stimulation, history matched to production, and calibrated to the microseismic and time-lapse surface seismic data. The CO 2 -EOR simulation results show that oil production can be increased and more CO 2 stored with: a longer primary production period; the presence of a shut-in period; higher injection rates; and multi-well injectors. The modeling results show that about 7–10 Mscf of CO 2 will be stored when recovering 1 stb of EOR oil. By adding the enhanced oil revenue and the carbon credits together, it is estimated that the most economic case can generate $\$13$ MM when oil price is assumed to be $\$80$/stb, and the EOR oil revenue is 3.4 times greater than that generated from 45Q incentives. It corresponds to the scenario that a five-year primary production is followed by CO 2 injection into four wells with the sequence of injection (4 MMscf/day for 6 months), shut-in (6 months) and production (12 months). The best practices in this study will provide valuable insights for similar CCUS projects in other unconventional fields. Furthermore, this study defines a term named “Carbon Neutrality Index (CNI)” by comparing the amount of CO 2 stored with that burned by EOR oil. The CNI value of 0 indicates the enhanced oil is carbon neutral; a negative CNI value implies there is a net reduction in carbon emission. The 4-year huff-n-puff (HnP) simulation leads to a positive CNI value, indicating that the EOR oil generated in this process is not carbon neutral yet.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Discovering hidden geothermal signatures using non-negative matrix factorization with customized k-means clustering

Discovery of hidden geothermal resources is challenging. It requires the mining of large datasets with diverse data attributes representing subsurface hydrogeological and geothermal conditions. The commonly used play fairway analysis approach typically incorporates subject-matter expertise to analyze regional data to estimate geothermal characteristics and favorability. We demonstrate an alternative approach based on machine learning (ML) to process a geothermal dataset from southwest New Mexico (SWNM). The study region includes low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems. Several of these systems are not well characterized because of insufficient existing data and limited past explorative work. This study discovers hidden patterns and relations in the SWNM geothermal dataset to improve our understanding of the regional hydrothermal conditions and energy-production favorability. This understanding is obtained by applying an unsupervised ML algorithm based on non-negative matrix factorization coupled with customized k-means clustering (NMFk). NMFk can automatically identify (1) hidden signatures characterizing analyzed datasets, (2) the optimal number of these signatures, (3) the dominant data attributes associated with each signature, and (4) the spatial distribution of the extracted signatures. Here, in this study, NMFk is applied to analyze 18 geological, geophysical, hydrogeological, and geothermal attributes at 44 locations in SWNM. Using NMFk, we find data patterns and identify the spatial associations of hydrothermal signatures within two physiographic provinces (Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range) and two sub-regions of these provinces (the Mogollon-Datil volcanic field and the Rio Grande rift) in SWNM. The ML algorithm extracted five hydrothermal signatures in the SWNM datasets that differentiate between low (<90°C) and medium (90-150°C)-temperature hydrothermal systems. The algorithm also suggests that the Rio Grande rift and northern Mogollon-Datil volcanic field are the most favorable regions for future geothermal resource discovery. NMFk also identified critical attributes to identify medium-temperature hydrothermal systems in the study area. The resulting NMFk model can be applied to predict geothermal conditions and their uncertainties at new SWNM locations based on limited data from unexplored regions. The code to execute the performed analyses as well as the corresponding data can be found at https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A combined experimental and modelling study of granite hydrothermal alteration

Geochemical reactions can induce significant changes of rock reservoir porosity and permeability via mineral dissolution and precipitation processes, affecting the long-term fluid behaviour within various geological systems. Here, the understanding and quantification of these reactions rely on field and experimental studies and on the predictions of reactive transport models. The present study was aimed at assessing the extent to which current geochemical models integrating available mineral dissolution/precipitation rate equations can reproduce the experimental data obtained from 4 to 17-day long hydrothermal alteration experiments of a muscovite-biotite granite and, thus, help provide an accurate description of the evolution of geothermal systems within granitic reservoirs. The experiments were conducted at a constant temperature of 180 °C and over an aqueous fluid pH range of 2 to 8.5, using both mixed-flow and static batch reactors. Modelled major element (K, Al, Si, Ca, and Mg) concentrations were generally in satisfactory agreement with the corresponding measured elemental fluxes – the differences between modelled and experimental values were generally within a factor of 5 – and the predicted identity and mass of formed secondary phases were consistent with the microscopic observations of the reacted solids. However, larger differences between measured and modelled element concentrations were observed when significant amounts of secondary phases formed, notably at pH 2 to 3, and for longer-term batch experiments. Much of this concentration difference stems from the underestimation of the amounts of Al-phases formed at acid to near-neutral pH. Although an idealized rock composition was considered, the observed mismatch between model calculations and experimental data can be attributed to inadequate mineral precipitation reaction rates and a poor description of reactive surface areas in existing geochemical modelling codes. More accurate quantification of precipitation kinetics, including nucleation and growth, and improved descriptions of the temporal change of mineral surface area would enhance the predictive capabilities of reactive transport models and benefit, particularly, the efforts aimed at increasing the sustainability of EGS reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

When less is more: How increasing the complexity of machine learning strategies for geothermal energy assessments may not lead toward better estimates

Previous moderate- and high-temperature geothermal resource assessments of the western United States utilized data-driven methods and expert decisions to estimate resource favorability. Although expert decisions can add confidence to the modeling process by ensuring reasonable models are employed, expert decisions also introduce human and, thereby, model bias. This bias can present a source of error that reduces the predictive performance of the models and confidence in the resulting resource estimates. Our study aims to develop robust data-driven methods with the goals of reducing bias and improving predictive ability. We present and compare nine favorability maps for geothermal resources in the western United States using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's 2008 geothermal resource assessment. Two favorability maps are created using the expert decision-dependent methods from the 2008 assessment (i.e., weight-of-evidence and logistic regression). With the same data, we then create six different favorability maps using logistic regression (without underlying expert decisions), XGBoost, and support-vector machines paired with two training strategies. The training strategies are customized to address the inherent challenges of applying machine learning to the geothermal training data, which have no negative examples and severe class imbalance. We also create another favorability map using an artificial neural network. We demonstrate that modern machine learning approaches can improve upon systems built with expert decisions. We also find that XGBoost, a non-linear algorithm, produces greater agreement with the 2008 results than linear logistic regression without expert decisions, because the expert decisions in the 2008 assessment rendered the otherwise linear approaches non-linear despite the fact that the 2008 assessment used only linear methods. The F1 scores for all approaches appear low (F1 score < 0.10), do not improve with increasing model complexity, and, therefore, indicate the fundamental limitations of the input features (i.e., training data). Until improved feature data are incorporated into the assessment process, simple non-linear algorithms (e.g., XGBoost) perform equally well or better than more complex methods (e.g., artificial neural networks) and remain easier to interpret.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploratory analysis of machine learning techniques in the Nevada geothermal play fairway analysis

Play fairway analysis (PFA) is commonly used to generate geothermal potential maps and guide exploration studies, with a particular focus on locating and characterizing blind geothermal systems. This study evaluates the application of machine learning techniques to PFA in the Great Basin region of Nevada. Following the evaluation of various techniques, we identified two approaches to PFA that produced promising results, 1) supervised Bayesian probabilistic neural networks to generate geothermal potential maps with confidence intervals, and 2) unsupervised principal component analysis paired with k-means clustering to generate both cluster maps to help identify spatial patterns, as well as new combined feature inputs. We applied these techniques to perform a comparative analysis between two principal sets of geological and geophysical features related to permeability and heat and a set of positive (known geothermal resources) and negative training sites (known drill sites with unsuitable geothermal conditions). We found that these methods constrain previously unrecognized feature controls on geothermal favorability, many of which are spatially organized within the extent of cluster groups and the major structural-hydrologic domains of the study area. Furthermore, we utilized exploratory unsupervised modeling to highlight spatial relationships between input data and predictive output results of our supervised modeling. As a result, we demonstrate how our models compare to the previous Nevada PFA and how the rapid insights these machine learning techniques offer may support future assessments of both known and undiscovered blind geothermal systems in the Great Basin region of Nevada and beyond.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis, Part 2: GIS methodology

Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) in geothermal exploration originates from a systematic methodology developed within the petroleum industry and is based on a geologic, geophysical, and hydrologic framework of identified geothermal systems. We tailored this methodology to study the geothermal resource potential of the Snake River Plain and surrounding region, but it can be adapted to other geothermal resource settings. We adapted the PFA approach to geothermal resource exploration by cataloging the critical elements controlling exploitable hydrothermal systems, establishing risk matrices that evaluate these elements in terms of both probability of success and level of knowledge, and building a code-based ‘processing model’ to process results. A geographic information system was used to compile a range of different data types, which we refer to as elements (e.g., faults, vents, heat flow, etc.), with distinct characteristics and measures of confidence. Discontinuous discrete data (points, lines, or polygons) for each element were transformed into continuous interpretive 2D grid surfaces called evidence layers. Because different data types have varying uncertainties, most evidence layers have an accompanying confidence layer which reflects spatial variations in these uncertainties. Risk layers, as defined here, are the product of evidence and confidence layers, and are the building blocks used to construct Common Risk Segment (CRS) maps for heat, permeability, and seal, using a weighted sum for permeability and heat, but a different approach with seal. CRS maps quantify the variable risk associated with each of these critical components. In a final step, the three CRS maps were combined into a Composite Common Risk Segment (CCRS) map, using a modified weighted sum, for results that reveal favorable areas for geothermal exploration. Additional maps are also presented that do not mix contributions from evidence and confidence (to allow an isolated view of evidence and confidence), as well as maps that calculate favorability using the product of components instead of a weighted sum (to highlight where all components are present). Our approach helped to identify areas of high geothermal favorability in the western and central Snake River Plain during the first phase of study and helped identify more precise local drilling targets during the second phase of work. By identifying favorable areas, this methodology can help to reduce uncertainty in geothermal energy exploration and development.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗