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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Ecohydrologic separation alters interpreted hydrologic stores and fluxes in a headwater mountain catchment

Recent studies have demonstrated that compartmentalized pools of water preferentially supply either plant transpiration (poorly mobile water) or streamflow and groundwater (highly mobile water) in some catchments, a phenomenon referred to as ecohydrologic separation. Additionally, the omission of processes accounting for ecohydrologic separation in standard applications of hydrological models is expected to influence estimates of water residence times and plant water availability. However, few studies have tested this expectation or investigated how ecohydrologic separation alters interpretations of stores and fluxes of water within a catchment. In this study, we compare two rainfall-runoff models that integrate catchment-scale representations of transport, one that incorporates ecohydrologic separation and one that does not. The models were developed for a second-order watershed at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest (Oregon, USA), the site where ecohydrologic separation was first observed, and calibrated against multiple years of stream discharge and chloride concentration. Model structural variations caused mixed results for differences in calibrated parameters and differences in storage between reservoirs. However, large differences in catchment storage volumes and fluxes arise when considering only mobile water. These changes influence interpreted residence times for streamflow-generating water, demonstrating the importance of ecohydrologic separation in catchment-scale water and solute transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of hydrogen fuel production from chlor-alkali processes in the United States

By-product hydrogen from chlor-alkali processes can help meet the increasing demand for hydrogen fuel in early fuel cell electric vehicle markets (e.g., California) in the U.S. Hydrogen produced from chlor-alkali plants is typically combusted for process heat on site, vented to the atmosphere (i.e., wasted), or sold to the external merchant hydrogen market. Whether it is combusted, vented, or sold as a commodity, relevant information is lacking as to the life-cycle environmental benefits or trade-offs of using by-product hydrogen from chlor-alkali plants. A life-cycle analysis framework was employed to evaluate well-to-gate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with by-product hydrogen from chlor-alkali processes in comparison with hydrogen from the conventional centralized natural gas steam methane reforming (central SMR) pathway. U.S.-specific, plant-by-plant, and up-to-date chlor-alkali production characteristics were incorporated into the analysis. In addition to the venting and combustion scenarios, to deal with the multi-functionality of the chlor-alkali processes that simultaneously produce chlorine, sodium hydroxide, and hydrogen, two different co-product allocation strategies were adopted mass allocation and market value allocation. It was estimated that by-product hydrogen production from chlor-alkali processes creates 1.3-9.8 kg CO 2 e/kg H 2 of life-cycle GHG emissions on average, which is 20-90% less than the conventional central SMR pathway. The results vary with co-product treatment scenarios, regional electric grid characteristics, on-site power generation, product prices, and hydrogen yield. Despite the variations in the results, it was concluded that the life-cycle GHG emission reduction benefits of using by-product hydrogen from chlor-alkali processes are robust. In conclusion, with a diverse set of scenario analyses, the study developed a comprehensive and detailed life-cycle GHG emissions inventory of the chlor-alkali by-product hydrogen pathway and quantified sensitivity indices in the context of different assumptions and input parameter values.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Electron injection and acceleration at nonlinear shocks: Results of numerical simulations

We present results of numerical simulations of electron injection and acceleration at nonlinear high Mach number shocks. The electrons are assumed to be heated at the thermal subshock to an energy E(sub inj), which is treated as a free parameter, above which they are injected by self-generated whistlers to momentum m(sub p) x V(sub A). This injection mechanism requires Mach numbers greater than (43/(beta(sub -)))(((k T(sub e))/(E(sub inj)))(exp 1/2)), where T(sub e) and beta (sub -) are the upstream electron temperature and plasma beta parameter. Above m(sub p) x V(sub A) electrons are trapped in the shock by Alfven waves. In the proton precursor region the Alfven waves are assumed to be generated by protons accelerated at the shock, and have nonlinear intensities. Below GeV, however, electrons of a given rigidity propagate faster than protons with a similar rigidity and therefore diffuse to regions ahead of the proton precursor. In those regions the Alfven waves are generated by the electrons themselves. The diffusion coefficient appears to increase with decreasing acceleration efficiency. As a result, the number of electrons accelerated to energies GeV and above and, hence, the electron to proton ratio, depend only weakly on the extent of electron heating at the subshock. The negative feedback also renders the electron spectra insensitive to shock compression ratio and smoothing length scale. The estimated e/p ratio at GeV is between approximately 1%-10%.

Levinson, Amir↗

Assessing Air-Sea Interaction in the Evolving NASA GEOS Model

In order to understand how the climate responds to variations in forcing, one necessary component is to understand the full distribution of variability of exchanges of heat and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean. Surface heat and moisture fluxes are critical to the generation and decay of many coupled air-sea phenomena. These mechanisms operate across a number of scales and contain contributions from interactions between the anomalous (i.e. non-mean), often extreme-valued, flux components. Satellite-derived estimates of the surface turbulent and radiative heat fluxes provide an opportunity to assess results from modeling systems. Evaluation of only time mean and variability statistics, however only provides limited traceability to processes controlling what are often regime-dependent errors. This work will present an approach to evaluate the representation of the turbulent fluxes at the air-sea interface in the current and evolving Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. A temperature and moisture vertical profile-based clustering technique is used to identify robust weather regimes, and subsequently intercompare the turbulent fluxes and near-surface parameters within these regimes in both satellite estimates and GEOS-driven data sets. Both model reanalysis (MERRA) and seasonal-to-interannual coupled GEOS model simulations will be evaluated. Particular emphasis is placed on understanding the distribution of the fluxes including extremes, and the representation of near-surface forcing variables directly related to their estimation. Results from these analyses will help identify the existence and source of regime-dependent biases in the GEOS model ocean surface turbulent fluxes. The use of the temperature and moisture profiles for weather-state clustering will be highlighted for its potential broad application to 3-D output typical of model simulations.

Clayson, Carol Anne↗

Improving the AVHRR Long Term Data Record BRDF Correction

The Long Term Data Record (LTDR) project has the goal of developing a quality and consistent surface reflectance product from coarse resolution optical sensors. This paper focuses on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) part of the record, using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument as a reference. When a surface reflectance time series is acquired from satellites with variable observation geometry, the directional variation generates an apparent noise which can be corrected by modeling the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF). The VJB (Vermote, Justice and Bréon, 2009) method estimates a target’s BRDF shape using 5 years of observation and corrects for directional effects maintaining the high temporal resolution of the measurement using the instantaneous Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The method was originally established on MODIS data but its viability and optimization for AVHRR data have not been fully explored. In this study we analyze different approaches to find the most robust way of applying the VJB correction to AVHRR data, considering that high noise in the red band (B1) caused by atmospheric effect makes the VJB method unstable. Firstly, our results show that for coarse spatial resolution, where the vegetation dynamics of the target don’t change significantly, deriving BRDF parameters from 15+ years of observations reduces the average noise by up to 7% in the Near Infrared (NIR) band and 6% in the NDVI, in comparison to using 3-year windows. Secondly, we find that the VJB method can be modified for AVHRR data to improve the robustness of the correction parameters and decrease the noise by an extra 8% and 9% in the red and NIR bands with respect to using the classical VJB inversion. We do this by using the Stable method, which obtains the volumetric BRDF parameter (V) based on its NDVI dependency, and then obtains the geometric BRDF parameter (R) through the inversion of just one parameter.

LTDR↗

Uncertainty Propagation from Experiment Measurements to Modeling Approaches: A Case for SMR Steam Entrainment Testing

To license new and advanced reactor designs, regulators must be convinced that their unique safety cases—relative to existing large scale reactors—have been adequately addressed by the designed reactor protection systems. In water cooled small modular reactors (SMRs), droplet entrainment in steam flow has significant implications on the progression of accident scenarios due to its compact design features, which requires representative test data applicable to SMR designs. Computer code, modeling and simulation (M&S) tools and models require adequate verification, assessment, and qualification. This includes M&S results validation against scaled empirical data within allowable uncertainty bands to gain regulatory approvals during the various stages of reactor system design, demonstration, and commercialization. However, measurement uncertainty within the empirical datasets and test data applicability ranges requires careful consideration of M&S inputs (i.e., boundary conditions, and initial conditions), and verification and validation efforts. This study focuses on uncertainty quantification in designing scaled test facilities for SMR applications with appropriate measurements and a standard data-reduction method to estimate thermal hydraulics characteristics parameters that incorporate physics phenomena of interest. In addition, this study supports the evaluation model development and assessment process using M&S that interfaces with advanced computing tools and digital twin capabilities. This will allow synchronization between experiment and modeling approaches for droplet entrainment testing and analysis, improving diagnostics, prognostics, and decision-making to accelerate regulatory approval.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Assessing the nature of large language models: A caution against anthropocentrism.

Generative AI models garnered a large amount of public attention and speculation with the release of OpenAI’s chatbot, ChatGPT in November of 2022. At least two opinion camps exist – one that is excited about the possibilities these models offer for fundamental changes to human tasks, and another that is highly concerned about the power these models seem to have – especially since the release of GPT-4, which was trained on multimodal data and has ~1.7 trillion (T) parameters. We evaluated some concerns regarding these models’ power by assessing GPT-3.5 using standard, normed, and validated cognitive and personality measures. These measures come from the tradition of psychometrics in experimental psychology and have a long history of providing valuable insights and predictive distinctions in humans. For this seedling project, we developed a battery of tests that allowed us to estimate the boundaries of some of these models’ capabilities, how stable those capabilities are over a short period of time, and how they compare to humans.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Assessing the nature of large language models: A caution against anthropocentrism

Generative AI models garnered a large amount of public attention and speculation with the release of OpenAI’s chatbot, ChatGPT in November of 2022. At least two opinion camps exist – one that is excited about the possibilities these models offer for fundamental changes to human tasks, and another that is highly concerned about the power these models seem to have – especially since the release of GPT-4, which was trained on multimodal data and has ~1.7 trillion (T) parameters. We evaluated some concerns regarding these models’ power by assessing GPT 3.5 using standard, normed, and validated cognitive and personality measures. These measures come from the tradition of psychometrics in experimental psychology and have a long history of providing valuable insights and predictive distinctions in humans. For this seedling project, we developed a battery of tests that allowed us to estimate the boundaries of some of these models’ capabilities, how stable those capabilities are over a short period of time, and how they compare to humans.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Parametric Study of Three-Stringer-Panel Compression-After-Impact Strength

Damage tolerance requirements for integrally-stiffened composite wing skins are typically met using design allowables generated by testing impact-damaged subcomponents, such as three-stringer stiffened panels. To improve these structures, it is necessary to evaluate the critical design parameters associated with three-stringer stiffened-panel compressive behavior. During recent research and development programs, four structural parameters were identified as sources for strength variation: (a) material system, (b) stringer configuration, (c) skin layup, and (d) form of axial reinforcement (tape versus pultruded carbon rods). Relative effects of these parameters on damage resistance and damage tolerance were evaluated numerically and experimentally. Material system and geometric configuration had the largest influence on damage resistance; location and extent of the damage zone influenced the sublaminate buckling behavior, failure initiation site, and compressive ultimate strength. A practical global-local modeling technique captured observed experimental behavior and has the potential to identify critical damage sites and estimate failure loads prior to testing. More careful consideration should be given to accurate simulation of boundary conditions in numerical and experimental studies.

Rousseau, Carl Q.↗

Coordinated Turn Trajectory Generation and Tracking Control for Multi-rotors Operating in Urban Environment

The paper presents an efficient trajectory generation and tracking approach for multi-rotor air vehicles operating in urban environment, which takes into account uncertainties in the urban wind field and in the vehicle's parameters. Generated trajectories are sufficiently smooth, based on the differential flatness of the vehicle's dynamics and optimal in the sense of minimum agility and time. They pass through given set of way points, guarantee flight without a side-slip, and satisfy vehicle's dynamics and actuator constraints. In addition, an algorithm is presented to compute the required power to traverse the generated trajectory. Presented algorithms are implementable in real time using on-board computers. They do not take into account the vehicle's existing flight controller, hence there is no guarantee that the controller will be able to provide acceptable tracking of the generated trajectory, especially in the presence of atmospheric disturbances. To this end, we propose an adaptive augmentation algorithm to improve vehicle's performance by taking into account the effects of disturbances and on-line estimates of vehicle's existing flight controller's gains. The algorithms have been verified by simulations using DJI S1000 octocopter's model.

Stepanyan, Vahram↗

Coordinated Turn Trajectory Generation and Tracking Control for Multi-Rotors Operating in Urban Environment

The paper presents an efficient trajectory generation and tracking approach for multi-rotor air vehicles operating in urban environment, which takes into account uncertainties in the urban wind field and in the vehicle's parameters. Generated trajectories are sufficiently smooth, based on the differential flatness of the vehicle's dynamics and optimal in the sense of minimum agility and time. They pass through given set of way points, guarantee flight without a side-slip, and satisfy vehicle's dynamics and actuators constraints. In addition, an algorithm is presented to compute the required power to traverse the generated trajectory. Presented algorithms are implementable in real time using on-board computers. They do not take into account the vehicle's existing flight controller, hence there is no guarantee that the controller will be able to provide acceptable tracking of the generated trajectory, especially in the presence of atmospheric disturbances. To this end, we propose an adaptive augmentation algorithm to improve vehicle's performance by taking into account the effects of disturbances and on-line estimates of vehicle's existing flight controller's gains. The algorithms have been verified by simulations using DJI S1000 octocopter's model.

Stepanyan, Vahram↗

Prognostic model and failure mechanisms of steam generators in Sodium-Cooled fast reactors

This paper presents a prognostic model for sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) steam generators (SGs). Here, the purpose of the model is to estimate the remaining useful life of SFR SGs and thus to support the decision-making of autonomous control. SFR SGs are of great interest for plant integrity due to their harsh operation environment. They operate at higher temperatures and higher coolant-to-steam pressure differences than those of current light water reactors (LWR). The severity of the SFR SG failure consequences, which include water-sodium contact, is another reason. Understanding its failure mechanisms is important for the development of its prognostic model. Based on our literature review and physics-based analysis, we concluded that creep would be a dominant degradation mode of SFR SGs due to SFR’s high-temperature and high-pressure environment. Thus, creep is the focus of the prognostic model. Various other failure modes were also investigated in this study. The mechanical fatigue due to flow-induced vibration is usually observed in early developmental phases and would not be an important issue during normal operation. The thermal fatigue due to thermal stripping is occasionally observed in other components in SFRs but does not affect SG integrity. Pure water stress corrosive crack, fretting, and so on are commonly observed in LWR SGs but are significantly less important in SFR SGs because of the high temperatures, high pressure differences, and chemical properties of liquid sodium. Based on these investigations, a prognostic model focusing on creep failures was developed. It estimates the failure probability profile by sampling the Larson-Miller parameter (LMP) and temperature and associated uncertainties through Monte Carlo methods. Two case studies were presented. The first one demonstrated the model’s capability to calculate the failure probability for a new specimen within a given time. If the tube is working under temperatures of 500C ± 3 and pressures of 15.2 MPa, which leads to LMP of 20,100 ± 50, the failure probabilities within 50, 70, and 90 years are approximately 0.1 %, 3.2 %, and 17.5 %. The second demonstrated how adjusting the workload can help to protect the integrity of the component. For an old tube reaching 99 % of its lifespan, continuing to run at temperatures of 500C ± 3 and LMP of 20,100 ± 50 leads to a failure probability of about 29.0 % within a year. If the temperature is reduced by 5C, the failure probability can be reduced to 2.5 %, and, if the pressure is also reduced such that the LMP is increased by 100, the failure probability can further be reduced to 0.12 %.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Implications of Grain-Scale Mineralogical Heterogeneity for Radionuclide Transport in Fractured Media

The geological disposal of nuclear waste is based on the multi-barrier concept, comprising various engineered and natural barriers, to confine the radioactive waste and isolate it from the biosphere. Some of the planned repositories for high-level nuclear waste will be hosted in fractured crystalline rock formations. The potential of these formations to act as natural transport barriers is related to two coupled processes: diffusion into the rock matrix and sorption onto the mineral surfaces available in the rock matrix. Different in situ and laboratory experiments have pointed out the ubiquitous heterogeneous nature of the rock matrix: mineral surfaces and pore space are distributed in complex microstructures and their distribution is far from being homogeneous (as typically assumed by Darcy-scale coarse reactive transport models). We use a synthetically generated fracture–matrix system to assess the implications of grain-scale physical and mineralogical heterogeneity on cesium transport and retention. The resulting grain-scale reactive transport model is solved using high-performance computing technologies, and the results are compared with those derived from two alternative models, denoted as upscaled models, where mineral abundance is averaged over the matrix volume. In the grain-scale model, the penetration of cesium into the matrix is faster and the penetration front is uneven and finger-shaped. The analysis of the cesium breakthrough curves computed at two different points in the fracture shows that the upscaled models provide later first-arrival time estimates compared to the grain-scale model. The breakthrough curves computed with the three models converge at late times. These results suggest that spatially averaged upscaled parameters of sorption site distribution can be used to predict the late-time behavior of breakthrough curves but could be inadequate to simulate the early behavior.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Variance-Reduced Accelerated First-Order Methods: Central Limit Theorems and Confidence Statements

In this paper, we consider a strongly convex stochastic optimization problem and propose three classes of variable sample-size stochastic first-order methods: (i) the standard stochastic gradient descent method, (ii) its accelerated variant, and (iii) the stochastic heavy-ball method. In each scheme, the exact gradients are approximated by averaging across an increasing batch size of sampled gradients. We prove that when the sample size increases at a geometric rate, the generated estimates converge in mean to the optimal solution at an analogous geometric rate for schemes (i)–(iii). Based on this result, we provide central limit statements, whereby it is shown that the rescaled estimation errors converge in distribution to a normal distribution with the associated covariance matrix dependent on the Hessian matrix, the covariance of the gradient noise, and the step length. If the sample size increases at a polynomial rate, we show that the estimation errors decay at a corresponding polynomial rate and establish the associated central limit theorems (CLTs). Under certain conditions, we discuss how both the algorithms and the associated limit theorems may be extended to constrained and nonsmooth regimes. As a result, we provide an avenue to construct confidence regions for the optimal solution based on the established CLTs and test the theoretical findings on a stochastic parameter estimation problem.

Lei, Jinlong↗

Evaluating the Applicability of Data on Total Solar-Radiation Intensity Derived from Various Sources of Actinometric Information

In designing generating solar-engineering devices, the first priority is the predesign study of the potential of local resources of solar energy at the places where they may be located. Currently, actinometric information is obtained in several ways. They include direct measurement of solar-radiation characteristics at meteorological stations or from satellites and analytical methods for calculating intensity of solar radiation. Despite the significant number of sources of actinometric information, it seems impossible to evaluate the potential of incoming solar energy in the region, to substantiate the composition and parameters of solar-power-plant equipment, and to predict its operation at the initial stage. Using the example of the town of Kamyshin in Volgograd oblast, the sufficiency of required actinometric information is analyzed for further solar-engineering calculations and the data accuracy and limits of their applicability are estimated.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The SMAP Level-4 ECO Project: Linking the Terrestrial Water and Carbon Cycles

The SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) Level-4 projects aims to develop a fully coupled hydrology-vegetation data assimilation algorithm to generate improved estimates of modeled hydrological fields and carbon fluxes. This includes using the new NASA Catchment-CN (Catchment-Carbon-Nitrogen) model, which combines the Catchment land surface hydrology model with dynamic vegetation components from the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4). As such, Catchment-CN allows a more realistic, fully coupled feedback between the land hydrology and the biosphere. The L4 ECO project further aims to inform the model through the assimilation of Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) brightness temperature observations as well as observations of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR). Preliminary results show that the assimilation of SMAP observations leads to consistent improvements in the model soil moisture skill. An evaluation of the Catchment-CN modeled vegetation characteristics showed that a calibration of the model's vegetation parameters is required before an assimilation of MODIS FPAR observations is feasible.

MODIS↗

Estimation of the time for steam generator trip due to cyber intrusions

The time required to trip a pressurized water reactor (PWR) by inserting malicious signals into its steam generator (SG) control system has been studied using the Generic PWR (GPWR) Simulator. A semi-analytical model is developed to approximately reproduce the simulator response and understand the dynamics of the control unit. A series of two proportional-integral controllers determines control action according to preset constants, the readings from the feedwater level sensor, and those from feedwater and steam flowrate transmitters. It is observed that the most important factor that determines whether a trip will occur is how much additional water is added to or withheld from the SG over time compared to normal operating conditions. In order to determine the effects of control action on the SG, changes in mass inventory are considered. This approach models the SG water level as a function of mass inventory and has a backward temporal memory. A Python interface is developed for the GPWR framework to automatically simulate different spoofing scenarios and post-process the related data. We observe that the trip times predominantly depend on flow mismatch and/or level errors. Controller parameters, including the integral time and gain constants, either speed up or slow down the rate of progression to a trip setpoint but do not cause a trip by themselves. The reactor can trip on a high-level signal when the reading crosses above 78%, increased from its reference level of 57%, or a low-level reading when it is below 25%. The present results show roughly how long the operators would have to respond to an attack, given a specific set of spoofing signals within the issue space analyzed. Furthermore, we have generated a simple surface by fitting a combination of exponential functions to the data obtained from the GPWR Simulator. In general, trips on a low level have been observed to occur faster than those on a high level.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗