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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Filling gaps in bacterial catabolic pathways with computation and high-throughput genetics

To discover novel catabolic enzymes and transporters, we combined high-throughput genetic data from 29 bacteria with an automated tool to find gaps in their catabolic pathways. GapMind for carbon sources automatically annotates the uptake and catabolism of 62 compounds in bacterial and archaeal genomes. For the compounds that are utilized by the 29 bacteria, we systematically examined the gaps in GapMind’s predicted pathways, and we used the mutant fitness data to find additional genes that were involved in their utilization. We identified novel pathways or enzymes for the utilization of glucosamine, citrulline, myo-inositol, lactose, and phenylacetate, and we annotated 299 diverged enzymes and transporters. We also curated 125 proteins from published reports. For the 29 bacteria with genetic data, GapMind finds high-confidence paths for 85% of utilized carbon sources. In diverse bacteria and archaea, 38% of utilized carbon sources have high-confidence paths, which was improved from 27% by incorporating the fitness-based annotations and our curation. GapMind for carbon sources is available as a web server ( http://papers.genomics.lbl.gov/carbon ) and takes just 30 seconds for the typical genome.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Age-specific case data reveal varying dengue transmission intensity in US states and territories

Dengue viruses (DENV) are endemic in the US territories of Puerto Rico, American Samoa, and the US Virgin Islands, with focal outbreaks also reported in the states of Florida and Hawaii. However, little is known about the intensity of dengue virus transmission over time and how dengue viruses have shaped the level of immunity in these populations, despite the importance of understanding how and why levels of immunity against dengue may change over time. These changes need to be considered when responding to future outbreaks and enacting dengue management strategies, such as guiding vaccine deployment. We used catalytic models fitted to case surveillance data stratified by age from the ArboNET national arboviral surveillance system to reconstruct the history of recent dengue virus transmission in Puerto Rico, American Samoa, US Virgin Islands, Florida, Hawaii, and Guam. We estimated average annual transmission intensity (i.e., force of infection) of DENV between 2010 and 2019 and the level of seroprevalence by age group in each population. We compared models and found that assuming all reported cases are secondary infections generally fit the surveillance data better than assuming all cases are primary infections. Using the secondary case model, we found that force of infection was highly heterogeneous between jurisdictions and over time within jurisdictions, ranging from 0.00008 (95% CrI: 0.00002–0.0004) in Florida to 0.08 (95% CrI: 0.044–0.14) in American Samoa during the 2010–2019 period. For early 2020, we estimated that seropositivity in 10 year-olds ranged from 0.09% (0.02%–0.54%) in Florida to 56.3% (43.7%–69.3%) in American Samoa. In the absence of serological data, age-specific case notification data collected through routine surveillance combined with mathematical modeling are powerful tools to monitor arbovirus circulation, estimate the level of population immunity, and design dengue management strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrating high resolution drone imagery and forest inventory to distinguish canopy and understory trees and quantify their contributions to forest structure and dynamics

Tree growth and survival differ strongly between canopy trees (those directly exposed to overhead light), and understory trees. However, the structural complexity of many tropical forests makes it difficult to determine canopy positions. The integration of remote sensing and ground-based data enables this determination and measurements of how canopy and understory trees differ in structure and dynamics. Here we analyzed 2 cm resolution RGB imagery collected by a Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS), also known as drone, together with two decades of bi-annual tree censuses for 2 ha of old growth forest in the Central Amazon. We delineated all crowns visible in the imagery and linked each crown to a tagged stem through field work. Canopy trees constituted 40% of the 1244 inventoried trees with diameter at breast height (DBH) > 10 cm, and accounted for ~70% of aboveground carbon stocks and wood productivity. The probability of being in the canopy increased logistically with tree diameter, passing through 50% at 23.5 cm DBH. Diameter growth was on average twice as large in canopy trees as in understory trees. Growth rates were unrelated to diameter in canopy trees and positively related to diameter in understory trees, consistent with the idea that light availability increases with diameter in the understory but not the canopy. The whole stand size distribution was best fit by a Weibull distribution, whereas the separate size distributions of understory trees or canopy trees > 25 cm DBH were equally well fit by exponential and Weibull distributions, consistent with mechanistic forest models. The identification and field mapping of crowns seen in a high resolution orthomosaic revealed new patterns in the structure and dynamics of trees of canopy vs. understory at this site, demonstrating the value of traditional tree censuses with drone remote sensing.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Incidence and predictors of tuberculosis among children receiving antiretroviral therapy in the Wolaita Zone: A retrospective cohort study

Tuberculosis is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children living with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia. Tuberculosis remains a significant health concern for HIV-positive children in Ethiopia. There is a paucity of data on the incidence and predictors of tuberculosis among children living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in the Wolaita zone. Hence, this study aimed to assess the incidence and predictors of tuberculosis among children living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in the Wolaita zone between January 2010 to December 2020. A retrospective cohort study was conducted among 389 children receiving antiretroviral therapy in Wolaita zone health facilities between January 2010 to December 2020. The checklist was adapted from the standardized antiretroviral treatment (ART) follow-up form currently used by the institutions’ ART clinics. The Kaplan-Meier survival function and Log-rank were used to estimate the survival for each categorical variable to compare the survival between different exposure groups. Both bivariable and multivariable parametric survival Gompertz models were fitted to identify predictors of tuberculosis among HIV-positive children. The association was summarized using an adjusted hazard ratio (AHR), and statistical significance was declared at 95% CI and p-value < 0.05. The goodness of the model fit was assessed using a Cox-Snell residual plot. The incidence rate of tuberculosis among children living with HIV was 3.5 (95% CI 2.7–4.5) per 100 child years. World Health Organization clinical stage III or IV (AHR = 2.31, 95% CI [1.26, 4.22]), hemoglobin level <10 g/dL (AHR = 2.87, 95% CI [1.51, 5.45]), fair or poor ART adherence (AHR = 4.4, 95% CI[2.18, 9.05]), underweight (AHR = 2.55, 95% CI [1.45, 4.51]), age >10 years (AHR = 3.62; 95% CI [1.29, 10.0]), and cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (AHR = 0.23; 95% CI [0.08, 0.60]) were among the independent predictors of TB occurrence. The incidence of tuberculosis among children on ART was high. HIV-positive children presenting with advanced disease staging (III and IV), anemia, “fair” and “poor” ART adherence, underweight, age above ten years, and not receiving cotrimoxazole preventive therapy were at higher risk of TB. Therefore, counseling on ART adherence, early diagnosis, and prompt treatment of anemia and malnutrition are recommended to avert tuberculosis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring the physics of cesium lead halide perovskite quantum dots via Bayesian inference of the photoluminescence spectra in automated experiment

The unique optoelectronic properties of metal halide perovskite quantum dots (QDs) make them promising candidates for applications in light-emitting diodes (LEDs), scintillators, and other photonic devices. The automated micropipetting synthesis platform equipped with an optical reader enables the opportunity for high throughput synthesis and photoluminescent (PL) characterization of metal halide perovskite QDs for the first time. Here, we explore the compositional dependence of the PL behavior and stability of the combinatorial library of cesium lead halide (CsPbX 3 ) perovskites QDs via the automated platform. To study the stability of synthesized QDs in the binary and ternary configurations, we study the time-dependent PL properties using previously developed machine learning analysis. Additionally, to systematically explore the PL behavior in the ternary CsPbX 3 QDs system, we introduce the Bayesian inference framework that allows the probabilistic fit of multiple models to the PL data and establishes both optimal model and model parameter robustly. Furthermore, these behaviors can be used as a control parameter for the navigation of the multidimensional compositional spaces in automated synthesis. Furthermore, this analysis shows the nonuniformity of the PL peak behavior in the ternary CsPbX 3 QDs system. Further, the analysis confirms narrow size distribution and good quality of CsPbBr 3 QDs alloyed with low concentrations of iodide and chloride. We note that Bayesian Inference fit parameters can be further used as a control signal for navigation of the chemical spaces in automated synthesis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data for Stetten et al. (2025), "Biogeochemical controls on iron speciation and cycling across upland to shoreline gradients in freshwater and estuarine coastal soils (Lake Erie and Chesapeake Bay, United States)"

Coastal environments are dynamic interfaces that mediate carbon and nutrient exchanges between terrestrial landscapes and open waters, but it is unclear how biogeochemical reactions, in particular iron (Fe) redox transformations, affect the understanding and prediction of coastal ecosystem functions. This dataset includes measurements from two freshwater sites in the Western and Central basins of Lake Erie (Ohio, United States) and two estuarine sites in the Chesapeake Bay (Maryland, United States); the analytical results were reported by Stetten et al. (2025) in Science of the Total Environment. It was produced as part of the COMPASS-FME project, which seeks to advance a scalable, predictive understanding of the fundamental biogeochemical processes, ecological structure, and ecosystem dynamics that distinguish coastal terrestrial-aquatic interfaces from the purely terrestrial or aquatic systems to which they are coupled. The sites were sampled in November 2022 (CRC), December 2022 (MSM), February 2023 (GCW), and March 2023 (OWC); site codes follow those used by Pennington et al. (2025).The dataset consists of the following soil data:- Solid data (Fe concentration, etc.)- Porewater data (sulfate, sulfide, etc.)- Linear combination fitting results of X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectra; i.e., quantitative results of the oxidation state of Fe, indicated as a proportion of pure Fe(III) and Fe(II) model compounds- Linear combination fitting results of EXAFS (extended X-ray absorption fine structure) spectra, indicated as proportion of of Fe-model compounds (illite, smectite, etc.)Each data type has a single file in comma-separated value (CSV) format. No special software is required to read it.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

CO2 response (ACi) gas exchange, calculated Vcmax & Jmax parameters, Feb2016-May2016, PA-SLZ, PA-PNM: Panama

This data package contains CO2 response (ACi) gas exchange and fitted Vcmax and Jmax parameters measured on sunlit canopy trees within the NGEE Tropics sites Parque Natural Metropolitano (PA-PNM) and Bosque Protector San Lorenzo (PA-SLZ) in Panama. Measurements were taken on a monthly basis from February to May of 2016. This data was collected as part of the 2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) campaign. Included in this data package are two Excel files with data (2016ENSO_Panama_ACi, 2016ENSO_Panama_Fitted_Vcmax_Jmax) and three Excel files with associated metadata. Also included is a Word document (Metadata_description_2016_ENSO_Panama) with details such as data collection methods, equipment used, and site information and a pdf (NGEE_Tropics_ENSO_Aci_Protocol_V2). See related datasets for further sample details, leaf water potential, LMA, leaf spectra, diurnal gas exchange and leaf chemistry. VERSION 2 update. The identification of a species from the PNM site has been corrected as follows: the identification of the tree initially identified as Pseudosamanea guachapele (ALBIED) has been revised to Albizia adinocephala (ALBIAD). The updated data package includes revised data, metadata and protocol documents updated to reflect this change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring model complexity in machine learned potentials for simulated properties

Abstract Machine learning (ML) enables the development of interatomic potentials with the accuracy of first principles methods while retaining the speed and parallel efficiency of empirical potentials. While ML potentials traditionally use atom-centered descriptors as inputs, different models such as linear regression and neural networks map descriptors to atomic energies and forces. This begs the question: what is the improvement in accuracy due to model complexity irrespective of descriptors? We curate three datasets to investigate this question in terms of ab initio energy and force errors: (1) solid and liquid silicon, (2) gallium nitride, and (3) the superionic conductor Li $$_{10}$$ 10 Ge(PS $$_{6}$$ 6 ) $$_{2}$$ 2 (LGPS). We further investigate how these errors affect simulated properties and verify if the improvement in fitting errors corresponds to measurable improvement in property prediction. By assessing different models, we observe correlations between fitting quantity (e.g. atomic force) error and simulated property error with respect to ab initio values. Graphical abstract

Rohskopf, A. (ORCID:0000000227128296)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploration of Water Jets in Supersonic Crossflow Using X-Ray Diagnostics

Here, near-field structures of pure- and aerated-liquid jets injected into Mach 2 crossflow environments were experimentally investigated at the 7-BM beamline of the Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Laboratory using high-speed shadowgraph imaging, high-speed x-ray imaging, and pathlength-integrated x-ray fluorescence. Liquid was flush injected into a blowdown supersonic wind tunnel. Test section top and side windows were fitted with a polycarbonate plate for high x-ray transmittance. An axisymmetric aerated-liquid injector was fitted with an exchangeable nozzle adaptor to generate a liquid jet. Water and nitrogen, the gas used for aerated-liquid jets, were doped with specially selected dopants to facilitate x-ray measurements. Liquid column structures for a pure-liquid jet, typically masked by dense droplet clouds in a supersonic crossflow environment, were visualized with the present x-ray imaging setup. Surface-wave formation, movement, and transformation on the column windward surface of the pure-liquid jet, along with column deformation and breakup processes, were qualitatively characterized. We measured time-averaged line-of-sight (LOS) liquid mass distributions within the liquid jet near fields. Cross-sectional liquid column contours of pure-liquid jets at various deformation stages were reconstructed from LOS liquid mass distributions. The pure-liquid jet deformed liquid column reached a maximum width of 1.47 times the orifice diameter before exhibiting rapid mass removal. We also observed the plume-crossing phenomenon in the aerated-liquid jet.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adjoint Waveform Tomography for Crustal and Upper Mantle Structure of the Middle East and Southwest Asia for Improved Waveform Simulations Using Openly Available Broadband Data

Here we present a new model of radially anisotropic seismic wavespeeds for the crust and upper mantle of a broad region of the Middle East and Southwest Asia (MESWA) derived from adjoint waveform tomography. The new model enables fully 3D simulations of complete three-component waveforms and provides improved fits that were not possible with previous models. We inverted over 32,000 waveforms from 192 earthquakes recorded by over 1000 openly available broadband seismic stations from permanent and temporary networks in the region with highly uneven coverage. Inversion iterations proceeded from the period band 50–100 s in six stages and 54 total iterations reducing the minimum period to 30 s. Our final model, MESWA, improves waveform fits compared to the starting and other models for both the data used in the inversion and an independent validation set of 66 events. Restitution tests indicate that the model resolves features in the central part of the model to depths of about 150 km. The new model reveals tectonic features imaged by other studies and methods but in a new holistic model of anisotropic shear and compressional wavespeeds (V S and V P , respectively) covering a larger domain with smaller scale length and amplified features. Examples include low crustal V S in the Tethyan belt and low mantle VS following divergent (Gulf of Aden, Red Sea) and transform (Dead Sea fault) margins of the Arabian plate. Low V S is imaged below Cenozoic volcanic centers of the Mecca–Madina–Nafud Line, Arabian Peninsula, and the Türkiye–Iran border region. Elevated V S tracks Makran subduction under southeast Iran with near vertical dip. MESWA could be used as a starting model for further improvements, say, using waveforms from in-country seismic networks that are not currently openly available and/or smaller-scale studies targeting a shorter period. The model could be used to improve earthquake hazard studies and nuclear explosion monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Importance of Considering Near-Surface Attenuation in Earthquake Source Parameter Estimation: Insights from Kappa at a Dense Array in Oklahoma

ABSTRACT Separating earthquake source spectra from propagation effects is challenging. The propagation effect contains a site-dependent term related to the high attenuation of shallow sediments. Neglecting the site-dependent attenuation can cause large biases and scattering in the corner-frequency (fc) estimates, resulting in significant stress-drop deviations. In this study, we investigate shallow attenuation at the LArge-n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma (LASSO) and site-related biases and scattering in source parameter measurements due to simplified attenuation models. We measure the high-frequency spectral decay parameter kappa on the vertical acceleration spectra of regional earthquakes (125 km away). The site-dependent kappa (κ0,acc) suggests that attenuation increases rapidly at shallow depth and is highly site-dependent. 10%–75% of the attenuation is site-dependent for S waves and even larger for P waves. The quality factor for S waves (QS) ranges from 10 to 100 in the upper 400 m. QP for P waves is mostly below 10 within the same depth. The Quaternary sediments tend to be more attenuating (QS<30), but the Permian rocks also can have high attenuation. We demonstrate that using a non-site-dependent attenuation model in single-spectra fitting leads to large scattering in fc estimates among stations with apparent good fits. The apparent fc can significantly deviate when the range of site-dependent kappa is large or with a higher assumed source spectral fall-off rate n. The biases in apparent fc depend on site condition and distance; however, the correlation between fc and these factors might not be obvious, depending on model assumptions. An apparent increase of stress drop with magnitude in a previous study for local microearthquakes (1.3

Chang, Hilary↗
DOE OSTI2025

Insights into Slip-Rate Time Functions, Rupture Parameter Correlations, and Ground Motions from Validated Multicycle Earthquake Ruptures

Earthquake strong-motion predictions using kinematic source modeling require knowledge of the slip-rate functions (SRFs) along the rupture and their distinct characteristics in asperities, background (off-asperity) areas and near the surface. Here, in this study we analyzed SRFs from well-validated, self-consistent, and fully dynamic rupture models from earthquake cycles obeying a rate-and-state friction law, from our companion study (Galvez et al., 2021). The shapes of SRFs in asperities are well described by the regularized Yoffe function (RYF), which has only two parameters: rise time T r and smoothing time T s , which control the generation of long- and short-period ground motions, respectively. In background areas, we demonstrate that, in addition to the primary rupture, multiple secondary ruptures may also nucleate from rupture heterogeneities related to asperities, resulting in SRFs with multiple peaks. Because it is impossible to fit a multiple-peak SRF by the single-peak RYF, we describe SRFs in background areas in an effective way by fitting their amplitude spectra with the RYF spectra. Such spectrally effective RYFs capture salient aspects of seismic-wave generation and can be used in rupture generators for strong motion prediction. We found that small T s values correlate with small characteristic weakening distances, large peak slip rates (PSRs), and large rupture velocities. T r values are larger in background areas and smaller in asperities. Within the shallow aseismic zone, T s values approximately quadruple whereas T r values approximately double. Because of this dominant T s increase, PSR values decrease in the near-surface zone. These features indicate that the generation of strong motions by the near-surface portions of the rupture is negligible in the studied scenarios.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improved Regional Moment Tensor Inversion for Moderately Large Earthquakes in the Western United States Using a 3D Earth Model Based on Full Waveform Tomography

The nature of seismic sources for moderately large (moment magnitude, M w 5.0–6.5) events are commonly characterized by their moment tensor (MT) solutions and obtained by inversion of regional distance (200–1600 km) long‐period (20–50 s) waveforms. Regional MT estimates are often calculated from average plane‐layered, one‐dimensional (1D) velocity models. However, 1D model calculations can produce misfits in the arrival times and waveform shapes that introduce errors, particularly at longer distances or for shorter periods, which are necessary for analyzing lower magnitude events. Approximate Earth models (e.g., 1D) representing broad areas may be inadequate, particularly in the crust and uppermost mantle of tectonically complex regions. In this study, we show how a three‐dimensional (3D) Earth model obtained from full waveform inversion tomography can improve waveform fits and decrease phase errors. We developed a platform and workflow to perform routine 3D MT inversions and inverted MTs for 25 earthquakes in the western United States and seven nuclear explosions using an average 1D and a recent 3D Earth model, WUS256 (Rodgers et al., 2022). Using the 3D model improves waveform fits (variance reduction and phase time shifts) compared with the 1D model, and the 3D MT solutions are stable across large distances. This study shows that 3D models obtained from full waveform tomography can improve MTs and source characterization especially at far regional distances (>800 km).

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Earthquake Source Parameters with 3D Wavespeed Models in California and Nevada

Seismic tomography harnesses earthquake data to explore the inaccessible structure of the Earth. Adjoint waveform tomography (AWT), a method of seismic tomography, updates the tomographic model by optimizing the fit between observed earthquake data and synthetic waveforms. The synthetic data are calculated by solving the wave equation through a given 3D model. An important requirement to calculating synthetics is the source information (location, centroid time, depth, and moment tensor). Errors in source information affect the quality of the synthetics produced, which in turn can limit how structure can be inferred in the AWT workflow. Here, to test the effect of updating source information, we used MTTime (Chiang, 2020), a time-domain full-waveform moment tensor inversion code, to calculate the moment tensors and depths of 118 earthquakes that occurred in California and Nevada over a 20-yr period. We calculated 3D Green’s functions using a 3D seismic wavespeed model of California and Nevada (Doody et al., 2023b). We show that the inverted solutions provide better waveform fits than the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog and increase usable, well-correlated data by up to 7%. Therefore, we argue that recalculating source parameters should be considered in AWT workflows, particularly for smaller magnitude events (⁠M w > 5.0).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Field Performance of Commercial Building Load Flexibility Using Model Predictive Control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) applied to buildings is starting to see some commercial adoption by companies. However, it is hard to estimate if relative energy cost savings are enough to justify the cost of MPC implementation with few reported demonstrations. In small commercial and residential buildings, a one size-fits-all solution can help reduce implementation costs, while in very large buildings or districts the potential energy cost savings magnitude can cover more tailored solutions. This estimation becomes harder for medium to large commercial buildings, where a one-size-fits-all solution cannot be adopted and potential energy cost savings might not be sufficient to cover a tailored solution. Therefore, value propositions in addition to energy efficiency alone can make MPC technology more attractive through additional energy cost savings. One such value proposition is load shifting in response to dynamic electricity prices. On this aspect, MPC is a key technology to unlock building thermal mass for energy flexibility in response to electric grid conditions. This study shows the experimental results of MPC control of an office building in Berkeley, where different dynamic electricity price profiles were used in the MPC objective function to shift the building load and to calculate hypothetical electricity costs. Results show potential 50% cost savings with respect to the existing controller with the dynamic price scenario.

Zanetti, Ettore↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sound velocities of iron-nickel (Fe90Ni10) alloy up to 8 GPa and 773 K: The effect of nickel on the elastic properties of bcc-iron at high P-T

Sound velocities of iron and iron-based alloys at high pressure and high temperature are crucial for understanding the composition and structure of Earth’s and other telluric planetary cores. In this study, we performed ultrasonic interferometric measurements of both compressional (ν P ) and shear (ν S ) velocities on a polycrystalline body-centered-cubic (bcc)-Fe 90 Ni 10 up to 8 GPa and 773 K. The elastic moduli and their pressure and temperature derivatives are derived from least-square fits to third-order finite strain equations, yielding K S0 = 154.2(8) GPa, G 0 = 73.2(2) GPa, K' S0 = 4.6(2), G' 0 = 1.5(1), ∂K S /∂T = –0.028(1) GPa/K, and ∂G/∂T = –0.023(1) GPa/K. Furthermore, a comparison with literature data on bcc-Fe suggests that nickel not only decreases both P and S wave velocities but also weakens the temperature effects on the elastic moduli of Fe-Ni alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗