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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Verifying Autonomous Air Traffic Algorithms in the Presence of Sensor Error and Flight Perturbations

We offer a method to verify algorithms for air traffic control in the presence of sensor errors and flight perturbations. Since errors and perturbations are described by stochastic processes, verification by analytical methods is difficult. We turn to Monte Carlo simulation, but there are two major obstacles. Since air traffic algorithms are safety-critical, the algorithm must be established at a very high confidence level which requires an enormous number of trials. Another is that a simulation attempts to show that an algorithm correctly handles a hazard that might appear, but there is a lack of information about the frequency of occurrence of hazards in the airspace. This paper offers a solution to these and other obstacles. It recognizes there may be a number of algorithms that address different hazards, and the results of the different simulations must be combined to satisfy a global reliability requirement at a high confidence level. To demonstrate the feasibility of the approach, we apply it to an example, an initial effort in collision avoidance.

verification↗
NASA NTRS2021

Asymmetry in Subseasonal Surface Air Temperature Forecast Error with Respect to Soil Moisture Initialization

Soil moisture (W) helps control evapotranspiration (ET), and ET variations can in turn have a distinct impact on 2-m air temperature (T2M), given that increases in evaporative cooling encourage reduced temperatures. Soil moisture is accordingly linked to T2M, and realistic soil moisture initialization has, in previous studies, been shown to improve the skill of subseasonal T2M forecasts. The relationship between soil moisture and evapotranspiration, however, is distinctly nonlinear, with ET tending to increase with soil moisture in drier conditions and to be insensitive to soil moisture variations in wetter conditions. Here, through an extensive analysis of subseasonal forecasts produced with a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system, this nonlinearity is shown to imprint itself on T2M forecast error in the conterminous United States in two unique ways: (i) the T2M forecast bias (relative to independent observations) induced by a negative precipitation bias tends to be larger for dry initializations, and (ii) on average, the unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE) tends to be larger for dry initializations. Such findings can aid in the identification of forecasts of opportunity; taken a step further, they suggest a pathway for improving bias correction and uncertainty estimation in subseasonal T2M forecasts by conditioning each on initial soil moisture state.

Air Temperature↗
NASA NTRS2003

Upper bounds to error probabilities of coded systems beyond the cutoff rate

A family of upper bounds to error probabilities of coded systems was recently proposed by Divsalar. These bounds are valid for transmission over the additive white Gaussian noise channel, and require only the knowledge of the weight spectrum of the code words. After illustrating these bounds, we extend them to fading channels. Contrary to the union bound, our bounds maintain their effectiveness below the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR)at which the cutoff rate of the channel equals the rate of the code. Some applications are shown. First, we derive upper bounds to the minimum SNR necessary to achieve zero error probability as the code block length increases to infinity. Next, we use our bounds to predict the performance of turbo codes and low-density parity-check codes.

Biglieri, Ezio↗
NASA NTRS2004

Nulling interferometers: the importance of systematic errors and the X-Array configuration

The nulling interferometers proposed for planet detection are arrays of collector telescopes whose amplitudes and phases are carefully controlled to generate a null response at the star. Perturbations in the amplitude and phase response of the instrument lead to time-dependent fluctuations in the stellar leakage that can mimic a planet signal. Understanding these non-linear systematic errors is important, since they drive most of the instrument requirements for missions such as the Terrestrial Planet Finder and Darwin. We show that 'amplitude-phase' errors are the dominant source of instrument noise. They are unaffected by the technique of phase chopping, increase rapidly at short wavelengths, are largely independent of the size and transmission efficiency of the collector optics, and depend only weakly on the nulling configuration and distance to the target system. Detection of an Earth around a G-type star like the sun requires -1.5 nm of path control and -0.1% control of the amplitude, integrated over all frequencies, including DC. This paper also introduces the X-Array - a new nulling configuration with 4 collectors and a central combiner arranged in an X pattern. This has a number of advantages over the standard dual Bracewell layout, and over other configurations that have been proposed

Dubovitsky, Serge↗
NASA NTRS2008

Execution-error modeling and analysis of the Cassini-Huygens spacecraft through 2007

The Cassini-Huygens spacecraft arrived at Saturn in 2004, beginning a four-year tour. Much of mission’s continued success at Saturn can be attributed to the excellent performance of the propulsion systems and attitude control. In order to better understand this performance, the Cassini Navigation Team has continued to analyze and refine the execution-error models for the propulsion systems. This paper documents the evolution of the execution-error models employed for maneuvers, along with the analysis, procedures, and software associated with the model development.

Goodson, Troy D.↗
NASA NTRS2017

A new concept of stability in orbit propagation, useful for quantifying numerical errors

We present the concept of topological stability in the numerical propagation of orbits, and show how it results in a useful new method for measuring the global numerical error of an orbit propagation. The concept applies to any problem in orbital dynamics. Moreover, it can be extended to any three-dimensional system of di erential equations of second order. In order to assess the topological stability of a given integration a special metric is introduced, which can be used to estimate the numerical errors robustly. The method is particularly well suited for dealing with strongly perturbed and chaotic systems. The construction is based on the constraint imposed by the Hopf map that supports the Kustaanheimo-Stiefel transformation. Generic concepts of stability are translated to KS space.

Pelaez, Jesus↗
NASA NTRS2020

JWST Noise Floor. I. Random Error Sources in JWST NIRCam Time Series

James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) transmission and emission spectra will provide invaluable glimpses of transiting exoplanet atmospheres, including possible biosignatures. This promising science from JWST, however, will require exquisite precision and understanding of systematic errors that can impact the time series of planets crossing in front of and behind their host stars. Here, we provide estimates of the random noise sources affecting JWST Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) time-series data on the integration-to-integration level. We find that 1/ f noise can limit the precision of grism time series for two groups (230–1000 ppm depending on the extraction method and extraction parameters) but will average down like the square root of N frames/reads. The current NIRCam grism time-series mode is especially affected by 1/ f noise because its GRISMR dispersion direction is parallel to the detector fast-read direction, but could be alleviated in the GRISMC direction. Care should be taken to include as many frames as possible per visit to reduce this 1/ f noise source: thus, we recommend the smallest detector subarray sizes one can tolerate, four output channels, and readout modes that minimize the number of skipped frames (RAPID or BRIGHT2). We also describe a covariance-weighting scheme that can significantly lower the contributions from 1/ f noise as compared to sum extraction. We evaluate the noise introduced by preamplifier offsets, random telegraph noise, and high dark current resistor capacitor (RC) pixels and find that these are correctable below 10 ppm once background subtraction and pixel masking are performed. We explore systematic error sources in a companion paper.

Exoplanet atmospheres↗
NASA NTRS2021

Chapter 13: Errors and Uncertainties Associated with Quasi-Global Satellite Precipitation Products

Measuring precipitation on a global scale is only possible from satellite platforms. Satellite precipitation estimates are based on geosynchronous infrared sensors on geostationary satellites, characterized by high sampling frequency, and polar-orbiting microwave sensors on low-Earth-orbiting satellites with less-frequent sampling. Assessing satellite product performance is fundamental to infer the reliability of such estimates and effectively use them in water resources management, extreme event characterization, disease control, or weather forecasting. Nevertheless, errors and uncertainties associated with satellite precipitation products are often masked due to temporal and spatial sampling, as well as bias-corrections against a reference dataset. Moreover, the verification of satellite precipitation products is easier over land areas, where rain gauges and ground radars are available as benchmark, but extremely limited over the oceans. Substantial work still remains to better quantify relative and absolute errors and uncertainties within satellite-based precipitation products over land and oceans.

Viviana Maggioni↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Symmetry and Error Mitigation in Quantum Alternating Operator Ansatz

Quantum Alternating Operator Ansatz (QAOA) provides a platform for probing quantum advantage in optimization problems on NISQ hardware. By exploring symmetries in the system and the structure of unitaries in the algorithm, we proposed using problem-specific mixing operators to limit the quantum evolution within a subspace where the target state lives. As an example, in case of equality constraint, we studied the use of XY operators that preserve total Pauli Z. This QAOA variant, in the noiseless case, significantly outperforms the vanilla version of QAOA where the constraints are encoded as penalty in the cost Hamiltonian and the search is in the whole Hilbert space. In presence of noise, although the advantage still holds, error mitigation is needed for QAOA. I will overview our work on the design of QAOA in presence of symmetry, the implementation and compilation of XY-QAOA, its performance and error mitigation techniques in presence of noise.

Zhihui Wang↗
NASA NTRS2021

Application of Non-Uniform Beam Filling (NUBF) Doppler Velocity Error Correction on Airborne Radar Measurements

Non-uniform beam filling (NUBF) within an atmospheric radar sampling volume can cause significant Doppler velocity errors when the radar is located on a fast-moving platform. A case of strong NUBF errors was identified in ER-2 X-band Radar (EXRAD) data from the Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) 2020 field campaign. A basic NUBF correction was employed using an estimate of the along-track radar reflectivity gradient. The relationship is verified empirically using co-located Doppler velocity measurements from the higher resolution Cloud Radar System (CRS).

Matthew L. Walker McLinden↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of Numerical and Modeling Errors of RANS based Transition Models for Low-Reynolds Numbers 2-D Flows

In this paper we report the outcome of selected workshops organized as part of the NATO Applied Vehicle Technology (AVT)-313 activity Incompressible Laminar-to-Turbulent Flow Transition Study that focused on assessing the numerical and modeling accuracy of the γ−Reθ and γ transition models coupled to the k−ω Shear-Stress Transport (SST) two-equation eddy-viscosity model. Three different test cases involving nominally 2D flow configurations were selected: flow over a flat plate with two different levels of turbulence intensity at the inlet; flow around the Eppler 387 foil at a Reynolds number of 3×10^5 and angles of attack of 1 deg. and 7 deg. flow around the NACA 0015 foil at a Reynolds number of 1.8×10^5 and angles of attack of 5 deg. and10 deg. The flat plate flow conditions correspond to natural and by-pass transition, whereas the other two test cases include laminar separation bubbles that lead to separation-induced transition. For each test case, the selected quantities of interest include both integral and local flow quantities. Geometrically similar grids with a wide range of grid refinement ratios were generated for each of the test cases to allow the estimation of numerical uncertainties for all quantities of interest selected for this study. Several RANS flow solvers were used, employing common grids with the same boundary conditions and mathematical models. Therefore, it is possible to analyze the consistency of the results, i.e., to check if the intervals defined by the different numerical solutions with their respective uncertainties overlap with each other. Modeling errors can also be addressed for the selected flow quantities that have experimental data available. However, the experimental information available in these cases is not sufficient to guarantee that experiments and simulations are performed with the same settings. Nonetheless, the available experimental data is sufficient to guarantee that modeling errors are significantly reduced with the use of the transition models when compared to simulations performed using only the k−ω SST model.

CFD Modeling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effect of Cross-Correlation of Orbital Error on Probability of Collision Determination

This paper discusses the effect of global model error on probability of collision (Pc) determination. Modifications to the Pc formulation for cross-correlation of orbital error in prediction are developed and assessed for recent conjunctions. While specific geometries can be identified or constructed to produce significant change in Pc for the modified formulation, it is of operational interest to quanti- fy the relative occurrence of such cases for satellite conjunction risk assessment. Large-scale analysis is feasible per data collections in place over the past year.

Steve Casali↗
NASA NTRS2023

An Examination of Heavy Ion-Induced Persistent Visual Error Signatures in an Electronic Display Driver Integrated Circuit

Heavy ion irradiation of a display driver integrated circuit (DDIC) was performed, and persistent visual error signatures were captured. Based on the heavy ion results, error signatures were localized to configuration registers motivate potential mitigation techniques and observations relating to single event effect susceptibility. DDICs serve as an integral component of integrated display systems that will require the development of single event effects test methodologies in anticipation of extensive use in crewed spacecrafts outside of the Earth’s geomagnetic protection.

Electronic Displays↗
NASA NTRS2023

Evaluation of Systematic Errors on Polarization Parameters from POLDER Instrument Data for Use In CLARREO Pathfinder-VIIRS Intercalibration

One of the CLARREO Pathfinder (CPF) mission’s science objectives is to intercalibrate the reflective solar bands of the NOAA-20 VIIRS instrument against high-accuracy CPF measurements utilizing coincident, co-angled, and co-located footprints acquired over diverse Earth targets. To alleviate the effect of high polarization sensitivity of select VIIRS channels on intercalibration analysis, the CPF team will limit the intercalibration footprints over low-polarized scene types, which will be identified based on an empirical estimation of their degree and angle of polarization (DOP and AOP) using POLDER data. This paper describes the methodology for evaluating systematic errors in the estimation of DOP and AOP for Earth-reflected radiances using POLDER’s polarized bands and investigates their potential impact on CPF-VIIRS intercalibration uncertainty. The systematic errors were found to be less than 0.01 for DOP and less than 2.2 deg. for AOP, which will have a negligible impact on CPF-VIIRS intercalibration uncertainty.

polarization↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Unintended Consequences of Focusing on Human Error (And How You Can Help)

The literature on human performance is rich with findings of cognitive failures and methods to identify, label, and measure them. In many real-world contexts, however, outcomes are driven far more by successful than failed cognition. Designers of systems intended for human use, in an effort to be “data driven,” rely upon findings from the cognitive performance literature to inform their system designs. When most available data are about human error, data-driven designs focus on the human primarily as a source of failure. Designs intended to support or replace humans often fail to acknowledge or understand the capabilities that humans routinely contribute to successful performance. Consequently, designs intended to “protect” the system from “error-prone” humans can design-out the capability for the human to effectively intervene or adapt. The development of paradigms to study successful human performance represents a significant and largely untapped opportunity for research in cognition.

Jon Holbrook↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

From Formal Errors Towards Realistic Uncertainties

Evaluation of uncertainties of geodetic parameter estimates is the problem that is not yet solved in a satisfactory way. A direct evaluation of the uncertainties derived from a least square solution is labeled "formal" and is usually biased, sometimes up to an order of magnitude. Customary, the use of formal errors for scientific analysis is discouraged. We claim that the root of the problem is neglecting off-diagonal elements in the variance-covariance matrix of the noise in the data. A careful reconstruction of the full variance-covariance matrix, including the off-diagonal terms greatly improves realism of uncertainty estimates derived from least squares. We processed the dataset of VLBI group delays and built a prior variance-covariance of the atmosphere-driven noise based on analysis of the output of NASA high-resolution numerical weather models. We found that the uncertainties of parameter estimates derived from this least square solution that uses such variance-covariance matrices become much closer to realistic errors. We consider approaches for implementation of this method in routine data analysis of space geodesy data.

Leonid Petrov↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spectral Measurement Errors due to CCD Serial Pixel-to-Pixel Readout Interference in the Ocean Color Instrument of the NASA PACE Mission

The Ocean Color Instrument on NASA’s PACE mission is a hyperspectral imager with a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km and spectral resolution of 5nm in 2.5nm steps over 320-890nm. The detection system is based on two Charge-Coupled Devices (CCDs) operating in Time Delay Integration (TDI) mode to achieve high signal-to-noise ratio. The front-end optical imager is a rotating mirror-based system that images the ground-scene onto a slit with a field of view of 16km x 1km. The slit-image is re-imaged and wavelength dispersed on the CCDs. As the ground-scene moves through the slit, it moves along the CCD columns as charge is moved along with it. The accumulated charge at the end of each column is collected in a serial pixel. Each of the 16 CCD outputs read out 32 columns of the same ground scene spaced 0.625nm apart. The 32-pixel serial register is swiftly read out before the next TDI cycle. The telescope is spinning at 5.77Hz to achieve the required spatial resolution. This results in a serial pixel readout speed of 8.5MHz. Each serial read-cycle goes through a reset and video period that are each sampled to create a low-noise correlated double sample value. This only allows 59ns for the reset and video to be asserted and settled before sampling. Due to the short time period, the response of the CCD exhibits serial pixel-to-pixel readout interference as the reset and video signals do not have time to fully settle before sampling. Each serial pixel value therefore has a dependence on the value of the preceding pixel value. This leads to a spectral measurement error of up to 0.3%. We explain the operation of the detection system, the behavior of the interference and the resulting wavelength error with results from ground testing and on-orbit characterization.

Ulrik B Gliese↗