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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Modeling and Evaluation of the Global Sea-Salt Aerosol Distribution: Sensitivity to Emission Schemes and Resolution Effects at Coastal/Orographic Sites

One of the major sources of uncertainty in model estimates of the global sea-salt aerosol distribution is the emission parameterization. We evaluate a new sea-salt aerosol life cycle module coupled to the online multi-scale chemical transport model NMMB/BSC-CTM. We compare 5 year global simulations using five state-of-the-art sea-salt open-ocean emission schemes with monthly averaged coarse aerosol optical depth (AOD) from selected AERONET sun photometers, surface concentration measurements from the University of Miami's Ocean Aerosol Network, and measurements from two NOAA/PMEL cruises (AEROINDOEX and ACE1). Model results are highly sensitive to the introduction of sea-surface-temperature (SST)-dependent emissions and to the accounting of spume particles production. Emission ranges from 3888 teragrams per year to 8114 teragrams per year, lifetime varies between 7.3 hours and 11.3 hours, and the average column mass load is between 5.0 teragrams and 7.2 teragrams. Coarse AOD is reproduced with an overall correlation of around 0.5 and with normalized biases ranging from +8.8 percent to +38.8 percent. Surface concentration is simulated with normalized biases ranging from minus 9.5 percent to plus 28 percent and the overall correlation is around 0.5. Our results indicate that SST-dependent emission schemes improve the overall model performance in reproducing surface concentrations. On the other hand, they lead to an overestimation of the coarse AOD at tropical latitudes, although it may be affected by uncertainties in the comparison due to the use of all-sky model AOD, the treatment of water uptake, deposition and optical properties in the model and/or an inaccurate size distribution at emission.

Bias↗

Estimation of Vegetation Aerodynamic Roughness of Natural Regions Using Frontal Area Density Determined from Satellite Imagery

Parameterizations of the frontal area index and canopy area index of natural or randomly distributed plants are developed, and applied to the estimation of local aerodynamic roughness using satellite imagery. The formulas are expressed in terms of the subpixel fractional vegetation cover and one non-dimensional geometric parameter that characterizes the plant's shape. Geometrically similar plants and Poisson distributed plant centers are assumed. An appropriate averaging technique to extend satellite pixel-scale estimates to larger scales is provided. ne parameterization is applied to the estimation of aerodynamic roughness using satellite imagery for a 2.3 sq km coniferous portion of the Landes Forest near Lubbon, France, during the 1986 HAPEX-Mobilhy Experiment. The canopy area index is estimated first for each pixel in the scene based on previous estimates of fractional cover obtained using Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery. Next, the results are incorporated into Raupach's (1992, 1994) analytical formulas for momentum roughness and zero-plane displacement height. The estimates compare reasonably well to reference values determined from measurements taken during the experiment and to published literature values. The approach offers the potential for estimating regionally variable, vegetation aerodynamic roughness lengths over natural regions using satellite imagery when there exists only limited knowledge of the vegetated surface.

Jasinski, Michael F.↗

Probabilistic Analysis of Long-Term Degradation of Microwave Cavity Flow Sensor

We are investigating a microwave resonant cavity transducer for flow sensing in the vessel of a high temperature fluid advanced reactor (AR), such as a molten salt cooled reactor (MSCR) or a sodium fast reactor (SFR). This transducer is a hollow metallic cylindrical cavity, with the flat wall of the cylinder flexible enough to undergo microscopic deflection due to dynamic fluid pressure. Membrane deflection leads to a shift in the resonant frequency, which can be detected with a spectrum analyzer. We have performed a proof-of-concept experiment of flow sensing with the transducer in liquid sodium at 340°C in impinging liquid jet geometry. The transducer remained in liquid sodium for 70 days. After removal, no structural damage was observed, and the expected transducer response was verified in a water test. Because long-term (multi-year) experimental tests of transducer resilience to harsh environment are not practical, we have developed a probabilistic model of creep to estimate transducer resilience to the harsh environment. The probabilistic model considers diffusion creep under the condition of high temperature and low stress, where the stress and temperature are allowed to be random variables with Gaussian distributions. Using the probabilistic model, we estimate inelastic membrane deflections due to creep for several temperature ranges. We conclude that for temperatures less than 650°C, creep has negligible long-term effect on the transducer performance. Since a yellowish residue was observed on the transducer surface after 70 days of immersion in liquid sodium, we have investigated possible evidence of corrosion. Chromium depletion is a typical indicator of the corrosion process in stainless steel. Scraping off a residue from the transducer and performing scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy dispersive analysis (EDS) did not find any chromium in the residue. Approximately 60% of the residue consisted of copper, which can be attributed to contamination of sodium due to powder residue from machining of copper and brass components of the transducer.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Final Report on Development of Microwave Resonant Cavity Transducer for Fluid Flow Sensing: Development of Microwave Cavity Flow Meter for Advanced Reactor High Temperature Fluids

We are investigating a microwave resonant cavity transducer for flow sensing in the vessel of a high temperature fluid advanced reactor (AR), such as a molten salt cooled reactor (MSCR) or a sodium fast reactor (SFR). This transducer is a hollow metallic cylindrical cavity, with one of the flat walls of the cylinder flexible enough to undergo microscopic deflection due to dynamic fluid pressure. Membrane deflection leads to a shift in the microwave resonant frequency, which can be detected with a spectrum analyzer. We have developed a continuum electromechanics model of the microwave resonant cavity transducer performance. The deflection of the membrane is calculated using equations from the theory of plates and shells for deflection of radially constrained thin circular disk under uniform load. The microwave frequency shift is calculated using the equations from the microwave cavity perturbation theory. The transducer model was validated with proof-of-concept experimental data of water flow sensing with a Brass 360 right circular cylinder with 22.2mm diameter and 203µm thick wall. The cavity was excited through a subwavelength hole in TE 011 mode with resonant frequency f ≈ 17.8GHz. Subsequently, we have performed a preliminary proof-of-principle test of flow sensing in high temperature liquid sodium in environment. For this test, we have developed a cylindrical resonator with the same dimensions as for the Brass 360 cavity. The resonator for high temperature liquid sodium test was machined from stainless steel 316 and electroplated with silver on the interior surfaces. We have also developed and insertion probe consisting of a 50cm WR-42 brass waveguide enclosed in a protective SS316 tube. The cavity was excited through a subwavelength hole on the side of the wall of the cylinder in the TE 011 mode with resonant frequency f ≈ 17.8GHz. The liquid sodium setup consists of a cylindrical vessel with a center feed line, where a transducer inserted through the top cap of the vessel measures velocity of the impinging liquid jet. The sodium flow sensing study was performed in a liquid sodium vessel at 340°C temperature and ambient pressure. The flow rate was changed by varying sodium pump power, and a frequency shift of several hundred kHz was observed. The transducer was removed after 70 days of testing. No visual damage was observed, and the electromagnetic response remained the same. As a calibration experiment, we have assembled a water vessel with a center feed, and with dimensions similar to those of the liquid sodium setup. Water flow sensing was performed before and after liquid sodium test. The responses in both cases are similar and agree with COMSOL computer simulations. Because long-term (multi-year) experimental tests of transducer resilience to harsh environment are not practical, we have developed a probabilistic model of creep to estimate transducer resilience to the harsh environment. The probabilistic model considers diffusion creep under the condition of high temperature and low stress, where the stress and temperature are allowed to be random variables with Gaussian distributions. Using the probabilistic model, we estimate inelastic membrane deflections due to creep for several temperature ranges. We conclude that for temperatures less than 650°C, creep has negligible long-term effect on the transducer performance.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Bayesian estimation of crack initiation times from service data

Lockheed C-130 Hercules aircraft have during their service life been periodically inspected and growing cracks around rivet holes were recorded. This record has recently been used to determine the statistical distributions of crack initiation times and the distribution of initial crack sizes. When crack initiation times are calculated from such cracks, by backward extrapolation of the growth relation, the resulting distribution of crack initiation times will indicate a preponderance of short times to crack initiation. If however, such distributions are combined with the reliability of the inspection procedure, the statistical distribution of missed initiation times can be estimated. The method used is based on Bayes theorem which permits the calculation of the 'prior' distribution (initiation times before inspection) from a knowledge of the 'posterior' distribution (initiation times obtained from the inspection) and a 'likelihood function' (reliability of the inspection) procedure. The results indicate that during an early inspection a large percentage of initiation times will be missed and that the fraction of located initiation times increases during later inspections.

Heller, R. A.↗

Chemistry imaging and distribution analysis of rare earth elements in coal using LIBS and LA-ICP-MS instruments

Currently, demand for rare earth elements (REEs) increased significantly. Coal is actively evaluated as potential economic sources for extraction of REEs. Here, in this work, laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) was evaluated for rapid estimation of REEs content and their distribution in the natural coal samples. The results were compared with similar laser ablation–inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) measurements. Thirteen coal samples (nine standard samples and five natural samples) were used in this study. Powder samples were pressed into pellets while coal chunks were directly ablated for data recording. Pellets of the powder standard samples were used to optimize the data acquisition system and then data recorded with this optimized system was used to identify the proper data acquisition and analysis models. After establishing the proper data acquisition system and analysis model using the standard samples, natural coal samples in powder form and their chunks were utilized to record LIBS and LA-ICP-MS spectra. Multivariate calibration models were developed using four of the natural samples, which were evaluated by predicting the REE content in the fifth sample. Principal component analysis was performed on the LIBS data obtained from the natural samples and it classified all the samples with high accuracy. Two-dimensional (2D) elemental mapping on coal chunk samples was also performed using both LIBS and LA-ICP-MS to study the distribution of REEs in the samples. The resulting elemental images and their correlations can be used to infer mineral distributions.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Application of Point Precipitation Frequency Estimates to Watersheds

This report documents work sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) as part of the RES project, “Application of Point Precipitation Frequency Estimates to Watersheds.” This project was implemented as part of the Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program. The objective of the PFHA Research Program is to develop tools and guidance on the use of PFHA methods to risk-inform NRC’s licensing of new facilities as well as licensing and oversight of currently operating facilities as they relate to flooding hazards. Many nuclear power plants (NPPs) are located on or near rivers so riverine flooding hazards need to be considered in their design and operation. Probabilistic riverine flood models are important tools for realistic assessment of flooding risks. However, these models require areal estimates of the depth, duration, and frequency of rainfall distributed over the watershed, which are not often available. Point precipitation frequency estimates are more widely available. For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has published NOAA Atlas 14, which provides point precipitation frequency estimates for 5-minute through 60-day durations at average recurrence intervals of 1-year through 1,000-year. The research documented in this report addresses areal reduction factors (ARFs), which can be used to convert the widely available point precipitation frequency estimates, to estimates of areal precipitation frequency over a watershed. The most widely used ARF source is Technical Paper 29 (TP-29) published by the then U.S. Weather Bureau in 1958. However, both the methods and the underlying precipitation data used to produce TP-29 are seriously out of date. For example, due to the small gauge network available at the time of TP-29’s compilation, ARF estimates developed are only for watersheds smaller than about 400 square miles. Due to the relatively short record lengths of precipitation data available, frequency considerations could not be accurately determined. Other factors such as regional climate and seasonality were not addressed. Several newer methods have been published since TP-29 was developed and both the type and quantity of precipitation data have increased significantly, along with computational resources and analytical tools such as geographic information systems. This report reviewed and assessed the available precipitation products and methods for conducting ARF analysis. The work applied up-to-date precipitation data products and analysis methods with a novel watershed-based approach to investigate how ARF estimates vary across different methods, data sources, geographical locations, return periods, and seasons. The overall findings reported here regarding basic ARF trends are in line with other recent studies showing that ARFs decrease with increasing area, increase with increasing duration, and decrease with increasing return period. This study found significant differences among the available ARF methods. This work also found a strong geographical variability across different US hydrologic regions, suggesting that the ARF are specific to regional climate patterns and geographical characteristics and should not be applied arbitrarily to other locations. The results also reveal the importance of data record length, especially for high return level ARFs. The work reported in NUREG/CR-7271 will assist NRC staff in assessing different classes of ARF methods in conjunction with available rainfall data sets. It will also support the development of guidance for application of point precipitation data in PFHAs. It should be noted that the ARF values presented in this report for any location or region were developed for the purposes of comparing methods and investigating the factors that influence ARFs. They should not be considered official and should not be used in leu of a site-specific analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System Trajectory Reconstruction Algorithms and Flight Results

The Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System is a part of the Mars Science Laboratory, Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation project. These sensors are a system of seven pressure transducers linked to ports on the entry vehicle forebody to record the pressure distribution during atmospheric entry. These measured surface pressures are used to generate estimates of atmospheric quantities based on modeled surface pressure distributions. Specifically, angle of attack, angle of sideslip, dynamic pressure, Mach number, and freestream atmospheric properties are reconstructed from the measured pressures. Such data allows for the aerodynamics to become decoupled from the assumed atmospheric properties, allowing for enhanced trajectory reconstruction and performance analysis as well as an aerodynamic reconstruction, which has not been possible in past Mars entry reconstructions. This paper provides details of the data processing algorithms that are utilized for this purpose. The data processing algorithms include two approaches that have commonly been utilized in past planetary entry trajectory reconstruction, and a new approach for this application that makes use of the pressure measurements. The paper describes assessments of data quality and preprocessing, and results of the flight data reduction from atmospheric entry, which occurred on August 5th, 2012.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗

Momentum Flux Determination Using the Multi-beam Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar

In this paper, we develop an estimator for the vertical flux of horizontal momentum with arbitrary beam pointing, applicable to the case of arbitrary but fixed beam pointing with systems such as the Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR). This method uses information from all available beams to resolve the variances of the wind field in addition to the vertical flux of both meridional and zonal momentum, targeted for high-frequency wave motions. The estimator utilises the full covariance of the distributed measurements, which provides a significant reduction in errors over the direct extension of previously developed techniques and allows for the calculation of an error covariance matrix of the estimated quantities. We find that for the PFISR experiment, we can construct an unbiased and robust estimator of the momentum flux if sufficient and proper beam orientations are chosen, which can in the future be optimized for the expected frequency distribution of momentum-containing scales. However, there is a potential trade-off between biases and standard errors introduced with the new approach, which must be taken into account when assessing the momentum fluxes. We apply the estimator to PFISR measurements on 23 April 2008 and 21 December 2007, from 60-85 km altitude, and show expected results as compared to mean winds and in relation to the measured vertical velocity variances.

Momentum flux↗

A study of explosive-induced fracture in polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA)

The fracture response of geologic materials is of interest for applications, including geothermal energy harnessing and containment of underground explosions. To better understand the explosively induced fracture response of geomaterials, polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) was used as a transparent rock surrogate to allow imaging of internal shock propagation and fracture growth processes. Experiments were conducted using high-speed shadowgraphy and photon Doppler velocimetry (PDV), which were compared to numerical simulations. Experiments measured fractures produced in 304.8mm × 304.8mm × 304.8mm PMMA cubes with two simultaneously initiated detonators. The cubes were subjected to varying amounts and directions of externally applied uniaxial stresses, including no stress, 2 MPa stress, and 20 MPa stress. The fracture radius as a function of time was extracted from the high-speed videos. Post-test images of the PMMA cubes aided in the determination of three-dimensional effects not directly imaged by the cameras. The surface velocity history and the shock response captured in PDV and the high-speed videos were compared to the simulated explosive-induced shock response. The simulation results indicate that the shock drives the fracture for the first 20 μs corresponding to a fracture radius of approximately 15 mm in the experiments. The gas-driven fracture extent was estimated analytically using an equilibrium stress distribution calculated after the shock wave propagation through the sample. Reduction in the gas pressure due to the leakage of the explosive products through the crack as a function of time was accounted for. In conclusion, the estimated fracture lengths were in agreement with the experimentally observed fracture lengths.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Understanding Uncertainties in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Modeling Using Synthetic Storms

Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall hazard assessment is subject to the bias in TC climatology estimation from climate simulations or synthetic downscaling. In this study, we investigate the uncertainty in TC rainfall hazard assessment induced by this bias using both rain gauge and radar observations and synthetic-storm-model-coupled TC rainfall simulations. We identify the storm’s maximum intensity, impact duration, and minimal distance to the site to be the three most important storm parameters for TC rainfall hazard, and the relationship between the important storm parameters and TC rainfall can be well captured by a physics-based TC rainfall model. The uncertainty in the synthetic rainfall hazard induced by the bias in TC climatology can be largely explained by the bias in the important storm parameters simulated by the synthetic storm model. Correcting the distribution of the most biased parameter may significantly improve rainfall hazard estimation. Bias correction based on the joint distribution of the important parameters may render more accurate rainfall hazard estimations; however, the general technical difficulties in resampling from high-dimensional joint probability distributions prevent more accurate estimations in some cases. The results of the study also support future investigation of the impact of climate change on TC rainfall hazards through the lens of future changes in the identified important storm parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Volume and Mass Estimation of Three-Phase High Power Transformers for Space Applications

Spacecraft historically have had sub-1kW(sub e), electrical requirements for GN&C, science, and communications: Galileo at 600W(sub e), and Cassini at 900W(sub e), for example. Because most missions have had the same order of magnitude power requirements, the Power Distribution Systems (PDS) use existing, space-qualified technology and are DC. As science payload and mission duration requirements increase, however, the required electrical power increases. Subsequently, this requires a change from a passive energy conversion (solar arrays and batteries) to dynamic (alternator, solar dynamic, etc.), because dynamic conversion has higher thermal and conversion efficiencies, has higher power densities, and scales more readily to higher power levels. Furthermore, increased power requirements and physical distribution lengths are best served with high-voltage, multi-phase AC to maintain distribution efficiency and minimize voltage drops. The generated AC-voltage must be stepped-up (or down) to interface with various subsystems or electrical hardware. Part of the trade-space design for AC distribution systems is volume and mass estimation of high-power transformers. The volume and mass are functions of the power rating, operating frequency, the ambient and allowable temperature rise, the types and amount of heat transfer available, the core material and shape, the required flux density in a core, the maximum current density, etc. McLyman has tabulated the performance of a number of transformers cores and derived a "cookbook" methodology to determine the volume of transformers, whereas Schawrze had derived an empirical method to estimate the mass of single-phase transformers. Based on the work of McLyman and Schwarze, it is the intent herein to derive an empirical solution to the volume and mass estimation of three-phase, laminated EI-core power transformers, having radiated and conducted heat transfer mechanisms available. Estimation of the mounting hardware, connectors, etc. is not included.

Kimnach, Greg L.↗

Distributed Energy Resource (DER) Reliability for Backup Electric Power Systems

Hospitals, emergency services, military bases, ports, airports, industries, commercial facilities, and others rely on backup power systems to provide electricity for their critical loads during grid outages. The purpose of this report it to provide accurate reliability information on commonly deployed distributed energy resources (DERs) to improve quantitative estimates for the reliability of these backup power systems during a grid outage. A backup power system consists of DERs, an electric distribution system with its associated switches and other devices, and mechanisms to control and manage the flow of electricity. Too often, facilities and campuses fail to properly quantify the reliability of their backup power systems. DERs are assumed to be 100% reliable, with the only concern being the availability of fuel. Such assumptions can lead to gross errors in the backup system's reliability estimates, particularly for long-duration outages. This report provides a set of estimates for reliability of emergency diesel generators (EDGs), natural gas prime generators and combined heat and power (CHP) prime movers, solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, and Li-ion battery energy storage systems (BESS). The estimates are derived from empirical data when available and supplemented by modeling results when needed. These reliability estimates are for the DERs ability to provide power during a grid outage, ranging from an hour to 2 weeks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Lunar PMAD technology assessment

This report documents an initial set of power conditioning models created to generate 'ballpark' power management and distribution (PMAD) component mass and size estimates. It contains converter, rectifier, inverter, transformer, remote bus isolator (RBI), and remote power controller (RPC) models. These models allow certain studies to be performed; however, additional models are required to assess a full range of PMAD alternatives. The intent is to eventually form a library of PMAD models that will allow system designers to evaluate various power system architectures and distribution techniques quickly and consistently. The models in this report are designed primarily for space exploration initiative (SEI) missions requiring continuous power and supporting manned operations. The mass estimates were developed by identifying the stages in a component and obtaining mass breakdowns for these stages from near term electronic hardware elements. Technology advances were then incorporated to generate hardware masses consistent with the 2000 to 2010 time period. The mass of a complete component is computed by algorithms that calculate the masses of the component stages, control and monitoring, enclosure, and thermal management subsystem.

Metcalf, Kenneth J.↗

Exclusive J/$\psi$ detection and physics with ECCE

The EIC Comprehensive Chromodynamics Experiment (ECCE) detector has been recommended as a reference design for the proposed Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) program. Here, this paper presents simulation studies of exclusive J/$\psi$ detection and selected physics impact results in EIC using the projected ECCE detector concept. Exclusive quarkonium photoproduction is one of the most popular processes in EIC, which has a large cross section and a simple final state. Due to the gluonic nature of the exchange Pomeron, this process can be related to the gluon distributions in the nucleus. Preliminary results estimate the excellent statistics benefited from the large cross section of J/$\psi$ photoproduction and superior performance of ECCE detector concept. The precise measurement of exclusive J/$\psi$ photoproduction at EIC will help us to more deeply understand nuclear gluon distributions, near threshold production mechanism and nucleon mass structure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Velocity-dependent J-factors for Milky Way dwarf spheroidal analogues in cosmological simulations

We study the impact of the dark matter velocity distribution modelling on signals from velocity-dependent dark matter annihilation in Milky Way dwarf spheroidal galaxies. Using the high resolution APOSTLE simulations, we identify analogues corresponding to Milky Way dwarf spheroidal galaxies, and from these directly determine the dark matter pair-wise relative velocity distribution, and compare to best-fitting Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution models. For three velocity-dependent annihilation models, p-wave, d-wave, and the Sommerfeld model, we quantify the errors introduced when using the Maxwell-Boltzmann parameterization. We extract a simple power-law relation between the maximum circular velocity of the dwarf spheroidal analogue and the peak speed of the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution. We show that this relation can be used to accurately calculate the dark matter relative velocity distribution, and find that it allows us to estimate the dark matter annihilation signal without the need to directly calculate the relative velocity distribution for each galaxy. The scatter in the J-factors calculated from the analogues dominates the uncertainty obtained when compared to the J-factor as determined from the observational data for each dwarf spheroidal, with the largest scatter from d-wave models and the smallest from Sommerfeld models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Power system state estimation for a spacecraft power system

An application of the maximum likelihood state estimator to a space-based power system is presented. The state estimator uses current and voltage measurements to generate estimates of node voltages for an electrical power distribution system for the Space Shuttle. Preliminary results on the effect of noisy measurements on estimated parameters are reported. The software used in generating these results is part of an overall package being developed at Louisiana Tech University. Intended applications of this package include the analysis of power systems and real-time parallel processing on the Space Shuttle.

Berry, F. C.↗