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The multicategory case of the sequential Bayesian pixel selection and estimation procedure

A Bayesian technique for stratified proportion estimation and a sampling based on minimizing the mean squared error of this estimator were developed and tested on LANDSAT multispectral scanner data using the beta density function to model the prior distribution in the two-class case. An extention of this procedure to the k-class case is considered. A generalization of the beta function is shown to be a density function for the general case which allows the procedure to be extended.

Pore, M. D.↗

Watching Without Seeing a Tool to Surveil Astronaut Health Outcomes While Maintaining Astronaut Medical Privacy

BACKGROUND The Privacy Act of 1974 regulates the use a nd disclosure of personally identifiable information by US Federal agencies. The Act applies to biographical, financial, a nd other identity-linked information, a s well a s personal health information (PHI). As such, the use of astronaut PHI is limited to authorized personnel for preapproved uses, with data reporting often limited to aggregated information about groups. These limitations on the use a nd reporting of astronaut PHI complicates surveillance efforts, wherein epidemiologists a t the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)monitor the incidence of targeted health conditions in the astronaut population, or to discover emerging trends of aging and disease. Stratification on one or more covariates –particularly time-period, sex, a nd mission participation –can lead to extremely small datasets such that the reporting of results is potentially attributable to individuals. An additional challenge is the small size of the astronaut population, both in terms of numbers of individuals a s well a s in terms of density of exposure time. Such small datasets yield volatile rate estimates that are difficult to interpret. To a id the epidemiological surveillance efforts, a surveillance tool is required that can (a) satisfy the need for rapid computation of condition-specific incidence and mortality rates; (b) improve the statistical estimates of these estimated rates; and (c) maintain astronaut privacy. Here we describe a nd demonstrate such a tool. METHODS We devised a system that models incidence a nd mortality rates rather than calculating them directly. This ha s the advantage of using all the available data to derive the estimates, lea ding to rates that a re not attributable to any one individual, a nd a re a s numerically stable a s they can be given the extremely limited data. The system models disease endpoints using a Poisson regression model with exposure density (measured in person-years) a s a n offset term. By doing so the model is estimating event counts per person-year, equivalent to modeling the rates directly. It uses a standard (pre-specified)set of covariates; the system does not engage in “model-building” as model parsimony is not the goa l. Instead, it is explicitly recognized that if a covariate is not statistically significant a nd not a confounder then it will likely have very little effect on the estimate of the incidence a nd mortality rates. Users are able to specify the disease endpoint of interest and the covariates over which they would like to stratify. The system then uses the resulting model to compute the estimated rates for the user-chosen configuration of variables as visualizes those either over an age range within a specified time-period, or over time for astronauts with a specified age range. RESULTS The first iteration of the tool computes incidence a nd mortality rates for cardiovascular conditions and cancers. Code ha s been developed to retrieve the appropriate data from the IMPALA analysis platform, compute the models for incidence a nd mortality, a nd then use those models to generate the corresponding rate curves. A companion graphical user interface allows the user to specify the curves and visualize the results. CONCLUSIONS It is important to note that the rapid surveillance tool described here is neither meant to be a definitive assessment of the incidence or mortality of any particular disease or condition in the astronaut population, nor is it meant to be used for research purposes. Rather, it is meant as an early indicator that in-depth investigation may be warranted. By automating a repetitive process and leveraging carefully curated astronaut health outcomes, the tool makes possible a rapid “first look” into known areas of concern, and, if used judiciously, may surface new areas of concern for long-term astronaut health. This work is supported in part by the Translational Research Institute for Space Health (TRISH) through NASA Cooperative Agreement NNX16AO69A.

R J Reynolds↗

Boosting CO2R Performance of Ag Electrocatalysts by Sulfur-Doped Carbon Support

We find that S-doped carbon support can boost the CO2 reduction (CO2R) performance of Ag electrocatalysts. Firstly, surface science enabled electrocatalysis showed that Ag supported on S-doped highly oriented pyrolytic graphite (HOPG), a model electrocatalyst, demonstrated 100% higher CO turnover frequency (TOFCO = 3.6 ± 0.2 CO/atomAg/s) than that supported on S-free HOPG (TOFCO = 1.8 ± 0.2 CO/atomAg/s). Computational modeling based on density functional theory (DFT) revealed a more stabilized *COOH intermediate on Ag supported on S-doped carbon and thus a more favorable energetic pathway of CO2-to-CO, consistent with experimental results from the model electrocatalysts studies. Finally, this proof of concept was translated to the synthesis of powder electrocatalyst with 2 wt% Ag supported on S-doped carbon black, demonstrating > 40-fold high CO mass activity than a commercial Ag cathode with steady FECO ~ 96% at 100 mA/cm2 for 50 hours of continuous operation in a gas diffusion electrode (GDE) electrolyzer. For comparison, 2 wt% Ag supported on carbon black without S- doping showed a maximum FECO ~ 70% at 100 mA/cm2. This work demonstrates a successful bottom-up design of CO2R electrocatalysts guided by surface science enabled electrocatalysis.

CO2 conversion↗

A Debris Disk Case Study: 49 Ceti with Herschel

Gas-poor debris disks represent a fundamentally different class of circumstellar disk than gas-rich protoplanetary disks. Their gas probably originates from the same source as the dust, i.e. planetesimal destruction, but the low gas densities make it difficult to detect. So far, Herschel has detected far-IR gas emission from one debris disk, Beta Pictoris. Here I discuss a well-known debris disk system in the GASPS survey, 49 Ceti. It serves as a case study for modeling low-density gas in optically thin disks. The dust disk appears to be spatially resolved at 70 um. Most interestingly, there appears to be a hint of ClI 158 urn emission at the roughly 2 sigma level. Preliminary modeling suggests that reconciling the sub-mm CO emission from this system with the weak or non-existent far-IR atomic lines may require an unusual chemical composition in the gas of this disk.

Roberge, Aki↗

Pedersen density drift instabilities

This paper describes the linear kinetic theory of electrostatic-drift instabilities driven by Pedersen and density-drift velocities. The model uses a uniform magnetic field B; a weak, uniform density gradient in the x direction; and a weak, uniform electric field in the y direction. Weak charged-neutral collisions are represented by the addition of BGK model terms to the Vlasov equation. The resulting local dispersion equation is used to study the properties of the associated instabilities at ka(i) greater than about 1 (where k is the wave number and a(i) is the ion gyroradius). Results show that the E x B gradient drift instability at ka(i) = about 1 may grow in the auroral ionosphere primarily in the vicinity of 200 km and only if the electron density is sufficiently small.

Gary, S. P.↗

Model dynamics for quantum computing

A model master equation suitable for quantum computing dynamics is presented. In an ideal quantum computer (QC), a system of qubits evolves in time unitarily and, by virtue of their entanglement, interfere quantum mechanically to solve otherwise intractable problems. In the real situation, a QC is subject to decoherence and attenuation effects due to interaction with an environment and with possible short-term random disturbances and gate deficiencies. The stability of a QC under such attacks is a key issue for the development of realistic devices. We assume that the influence of the environment can be incorporated by a master equation that includes unitary evolution with gates, supplemented by a Lindblad term. Lindblad operators of various types are explored; namely, steady, pulsed, gate friction, and measurement operators. In the master equation, we use the Lindblad term to describe short time intrusions by random Lindblad pulses. The phenomenological master equation is then extended to include a nonlinear Beretta term that describes the evolution of a closed system with increasing entropy. An external Bath environment is stipulated by a fixed temperature in two different ways. Here we explore the case of a simple one-qubit system in preparation for generalization to multi-qubit, qutrit and hybrid qubit–qutrit systems. This model master equation can be used to test the stability of memory and the efficacy of quantum gates. The properties of such hybrid master equations are explored, with emphasis on the role of thermal equilibrium and entropy constraints. Several significant properties of time-dependent qubit evolution are revealed by this simple study. - Highlights: • General realistic density matrix evolution model shown for one qubit. • Unitary pulses & bias yield quantum gates without harmful phase accumulations. • Gate friction, dissipation included by random Lindblad noise pulses. • Bath & entropy terms yield equilibrium; test algorithms, gates act on Larmor grid. • Measurement modeled by strong, fast Lindblad pulses.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Plasma generation near an Ion thruster disharge chamber hollow cathode

In gridded electrostatic thrusters, ions are produced by electron bombardment in the discharge chamber. In most of these thrusters, a single, centrally located hollow cathode supplies the ionizing electrons. An applied magnetic field in the discharge chamber restricts the electrons leaving the hollow cathode to a very narrow channel. In this channel, the high electron current density ionizes both propellant gas flowing from the hollow cathode, and other neutrals from the main propellant flow from the plenum. The processes that occur just past the hollow cathode exit are very important. In recent engine tests, several cases of discharge cathode orifice place and keeper erosion have been reported. In this paper we present results from a new 1-D, variable area model of the plasma processes in the magnetized channel just downstream of the hollow cathode keeper. The model predicts plasma densities, and temperatures consistent with those reported in the literature for the NSTAR engine, and preliminary results from the model show a potential maximum just downstream of the cathode.

cathode↗

Developing lake sampling strategies with existing Landsat data

On the basis of the assumptions that Landsat image densities relate to water quality, that lake densities can be modeled, and that homogeneous water quality areas can therefore be predicted, a method is developed for the selection of optimum water quality sampling locations on Oneida Lake in central New York. Patterns of Oneida Lake density on 24 Landsat band 5 images were traced from the screen of a density slicer, and the lake was gridded into 161 1.25 X 1.25-km cells, with image density levels encoded for each cell. Cell density levels were then employed as the dependent variable in correlations and multiple regression equations with degree days, resultant wind speed, and resultant direction. Cell density levels were averaged over two-week periods, and the averages were correlated with water quality measurements.

Philipson, W. R.↗

RANS Simulation of Variable Density Turbulent Round Jets with Coflow using xRAGE Hydrodynamic Code and BHR Turbulence Models

This work for the fiscal year 2023 (FY23) is a continuation of previous efforts to evaluate the BHR turbulence models for their ability to accurately simulate variable density turbulent round jets with coflow. As before, RANS simulations are carried out using the xRAGE hydrodynamic code. The following are some of the previous findings. Israel showed that i) the symmetry boundary conditions for the BHR models in axisymmetric simulations were in error, ii) three grids of different resolutions did not lead to converging solutions, and iii) BHR 3.1 simulation exhibited instabilities and did not reach a steady state. Saenz and Rauenzahn derived and implemented into xRAGE the correct BHR boundary conditions at the symmetry axis. Cline conducted sensitivity studies with various parameters including the BHR models (versions 2, 3.1 and 4), gravity, material pressure, specific heat, initial turbulent kinetic energy and initial turbulent length scale, and found that the largest factor impacting on simulation results was the BHR model version, followed by the initial turbulent length scale. In addition, freeze boundary conditions at the exit and the side wall of the computational domain were used to remove anomalous flow behavior. Cline adjusted the inlet jet velocity, initial turbulent kinetic energy and initial turbulent length scale to obtain the best reasonable match with the experimental data of Charonko and Prestridge. It was found that the BHR 2 and 3.1 models performed in a similar manner, but the BHR 2 model produced much lower levels of density-specific-volume covariance and turbulent kinetic energy. The main focus for the FY23 is to study the effects of computational parameters related to the boundary conditions, mesh, domain size and timestep size. The reasoning behind this is that, unless simulation results can be shown to be reasonably independent from the aforementioned computational parameters, it would be difficult to attribute any discrepancies between simulation and experimental results to turbulence models. This important aspect has largely been overlooked in the previous years, and therefore will be studied comprehensively here. Additionally, effects of varying the initial turbulent length scale will be examined because it was previously identified as a major factor affecting the flow fields.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Charge density wave and superconductivity in the disordered Holstein model

The interplay between electron-electron correlations and disorder has been a central theme of condensed matter physics over the past several decades, with particular interest in the possibility that interactions might cause delocalization of an Anderson insulator into a metallic state, and the disrupting effects of randomness on magnetic order and the Mott phase. In this work, we extend this physics to explore electron-phonon interactions and show, via exact quantum Monte Carlo simulations, that the suppression of the charge density wave correlations in the half-filled Holstein model by disorder can stabilize a superconducting phase. Our simulations thus capture qualitatively the suppression of charge ordered phases and emergent superconductivity recently seen experimentally.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Establishing a process-structure-property-performance framework for SLS additive manufacturing through integrated multiscale modeling

This study presents a comprehensive suite of high-fidelity computational models that integrate multiscale and multiphysics simulations to capture the full Selective Laser Sintering (SLS) additive manufacturing process—from initial melting and solidification to mechanical response under external loads. Process simulations are linked with mechanical analysis through Representative Volume Elements (RVEs), establishing a process-structure–property-performance framework. The interaction between laser light and polyamide 12 (PA12) powder is modeled, accounting for laser characteristics and the optical, thermal, and geometrical properties of the powder. The heat source is incorporated into a heat transfer model, coupled with crystallization kinetics and densification models to predict material density and crystallinity. The porosity distribution from the densification model and crystallinity interpolated from experimental data are used to construct the RVEs. A multi-mechanism constitutive model is then calibrated using mechanical tests to predict the stress–strain response. Simulation results show good agreement with experimental data in terms of porosity, crystallinity, and mechanical performance when sufficient laser power (62 W or higher) is used. This research supports the inverse design of 3D-printed structures by introducing a high-fidelity framework that combines multiscale and multiphysics modeling with experimental calibration for predictive and performance-driven additive manufacturing.

SLS↗

Increasing the density in Wendelstein 7-X: benefits and limitations

In stellarators, increasing the density is beneficial for the energy confinement. While there is no single reason for this observation, it is still very robust across different devices and this is reflected in the empirical energy confinement time scaling for stellarators, ISS04. In order to study whether this is also true for Wendelstein 7-X, here the density scaling of the energy confinement time is analyzed and compared to ISS04 for the first divertor experiments. When the density is increased beyond a critical density, however, radiative collapses are frequently observed. Existing analytical models for the critical density are revisited to assess whether they can predict the accessible density range. Furthermore, since close to the collapse the radiation losses increase substantially, the impact on the global energy confinement is investigated. It is found that in plasmas with high radiation the density scaling of the energy confinement time becomes weaker, the reason for this observation is not yet clear. In the second half of the first divertor campaign, boronization was applied to W7-X for the first time. This broadened the operational window, allowing for operation at higher density and, hence, higher stored energy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Bayesian approach to model-based extrapolation of nuclear observables

Here, we considered 10 global models based on nuclear density functional theory with realistic energy density functionals as well as two more phenomenological mass models. The emulators of two-neutron separation energy residuals and Bayesian confidence intervals defining theoretical error bars were constructed using Bayesian Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks. By establishing statistical methodology and parameters, we carried out extrapolations toward the two-neutron dripline. While both Gaussian processes (GP) and Bayesian neural networks reduce the root-mean-square (rms) deviation from experiment significantly, GP offers a better and much more stable performance. The increase in the predictive power of microscopic models aided by the statistical treatment is quite astonishing: The resulting rms deviations from experiment on the testing dataset are similar to those of more phenomenological models. The estimated credibility intervals on predictions make it possible to evaluate predictive power of individual models and also make quantified predictions using groups of models. The proposed robust statistical approach to extrapolation of nuclear model results can be useful for assessing the impact of current and future experiments in the context of model developments. The new Bayesian capability to evaluate residuals is also expected to impact research in the domains where experiments are currently impossible, for instance, in simulations of the astrophysical r process.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Assessment of Variability of the TEC in the Equatorial Anomaly Region with a Focus over Africa Using Rz and F10.7 as Input Drivers

This paper mainly intends to address the assessment of altitudinal variability of the vertical total electron content (VTEC) extracted from the Global Positioning System (GPS), the new versions of the International Reference Ionosphere Extended to the Plasmasphere (IRI-Plas 2017), and a quick-run ionospheric electron density (NeQuick 2) model in the equatorial anomaly region with a focus over Africa. This is manipulated employing the daily sunspot number (Rz) and 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7) indices as the driver for the models during 2013–2016. The results show that the GPS-derived VTEC values are generally smaller than the modeled VTEC (IRI-Plas 2017 and NeQuick 2 VTEC) values, especially while utilizing the models with the Rz index. The modeled VTEC values are closer to the GPS VTEC values while using the models with the F10.7 index than Rz. The VTEC values obtained while using both models with the F10.7 index tend to increase while traversing from the high to the low solar activity years (especially in the March equinox and December solstice). The top-side ionospheric and plasmaspheric layers contribute the highest and lowest values to the total VTEC. Hence, the signal propagation through the ionosphere is largely affected when the signal crosses the top-side layer. Unlike other layers, due to the limited impact of the EUV on the ionization of neutral particles in the plasmasphere, the VTEC in the plasmaspheric layer (ECpl) shows smooth pattern with similar hourly values. Moreover, the IRI-Plas 2017 model does not effectively respond to the geomagnetic storm time variability of the VTEC with altitude.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Rapid temporal evolution of radiation from non-thermal electrons in solar flares

Solutions of the time dependent Fokker-Planck equation was found for accelerated electrons undergoing Coulomb collisions in a magnetized, fully ionized plasma. An exact solution was found for arbitrary pitch angle and energy distribution in a uniform background plasma. Then, for an inhomogeneous plasma, a solution was found for particles with small pitch angles. These solutions were used to calculate the temporal evolution of bremsstrahlung x-rays from short bursts of nonthermal electron beams, and these spectra were compared with observed high time resolution spectra of short timescale solar hard x-ray bursts. It is shown that the observed softening in time of the spectra rules out a homogeneous background and therefore the possibility of electrons being confined to the corona either because of converging magnetic field or high densities. The inhomogeneous solution was also applied to a model with constant coronal density and exponentially rising chromospheric density. The spectra are shown to be consistent with that produced by a collimated beam of electrons accelerated in the corona with certain given conditions. These conditions could be violated if large pitch angle electrons are present.

Lu, Edward T.↗

Rapid temporal evolution of radiation from nonthermal electrons in solar flares

Solutions of the time dependent Fokker-Planck equation was found for accelerated electrons undergoing Coulomb collisions in a magnetized, fully ionized plasma. An exact solution was found for arbitrary pitch angle and energy distribution in a uniform background plasma. Then, for an inhomogeneous plasma, a solution was found for particles with small pitch angles. These solutions were used to calculate the temporal evolution of bremsstrahlung X-rays from short bursts of nonthermal electron beams, and these spectra were compared with observed high time resolution spectra of short timescale solar hard X-ray bursts. It is shown that the observed softening in time of the spectra rules out a homogeneous background and therefore the possibility of electrons being confined to the corona either because of converging magnetic field or high densities. The inhomogeneous solution was also applied to a model with constant coronal density and exponentially rising chromospheric density. The spectra are shown to be consistent with that produced by a collimated beam of electrons accelerated in the corona with certain given conditions. These conditions could be violated if large pitch angle electrons are present.

Lu, Edward T.↗

Updates on the Debrisat Hypervelocity Experiment and Characterization of Fragments in Support of Environmental Models

To develop, maintain, and update orbital debris environmental and break-up models, such as the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) and the NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model (SSBM), the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) relies on the most recent validated datasets from various measurement sources, both laboratory and environmental. One key project that will provide insight for break-up events using modern-day spacecraft materials and construction techniques is the DebriSat laboratory hypervelocity-impact test. Based on the mass of the target, the projectile, and the impact velocity, the expected number of fragments greater than 2 mm, generated using the NASA SSBM, was estimated to be close to 85,000. To date, the DebriSat fragment database continues to grow, with over 200,000 fragments collected that will help inform updates to the SSBM. Additionally, the growing fragment ensemble will support key parameters for the next release of NASA’s environmental models, employing fragment shapes, densities, and size distributions. To further support these environmental models, specifically the size parameter used in ground-based optical measurements, optical characterization on a subset of DebriSat fragments is being conducted in ODPO’s Optical Measurement Center (OMC). Broadband bidirectional reflectance distribution (BRDF) measurements will provide insight into the optical-based NASA Size Estimation Model (OSEM). The OSEM equates an object’s brightness to size (e.g., diameter of a disk or sphere) given several assumed parameters, including a defined phase function, albedo, and range. To address the first defined parameter, the ODPO has been using ray-tracing software to simulate light conditions in the OMC and to generate phase functions (i.e., specular, Lambertian, and experimentally-derived) of known shapes, materials, and sizes. This simulated data, in addition to the experimentally derived measurements collected in the OMC, will aid in determining whether a new phase function would be suitable for an updated OSEM. The OSEM also assumes a single-value albedo, thus pre-impact spectral measurements on a subset of DebriSat materials were acquired for baseline material characterization and to provide insight into spacecraft material taxonomies. This DebriSat spectral data, along with spectral measurements from other known spacecraft material samples, will allow for better analyses of albedo variations and the effect on size calculations of defined laboratory targets, thus further supporting OSEM updates. This paper provides an overview of DebriSat, the status of the project, updates on the parameter distributions, an overview of the NASA SSBM, and ongoing fragment characterization efforts within the OMC.

Heather Cowardin↗

Updates on the DebriSat Hypervelocity Experiment and Characterization of Fragments in Support of Environmental Models

To develop, maintain, and update orbital debris environmental and break-up models, such as the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) and the NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model (SSBM), the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) relies on the most recent validated datasets from various measurement sources, both laboratory and environmental. One key project that will provide insight for break-up events using modern-day spacecraft materials and construction techniques is the DebriSat laboratory hypervelocity-impact test. Based on the mass of the target, the projectile, and the impact velocity, the expected number of fragments greater than 2 mm, generated using the NASA SSBM, was estimated to be close to 85,000. To date, the DebriSat fragment database continues to grow, with over 200,000 fragments collected that will help inform updates to the SSBM. Additionally, the growing fragment ensemble will support key parameters for the next release of NASA’s environmental models, employing fragment shapes, densities, and size distributions. To further support these environmental models, specifically the size parameter used in ground-based optical measurements, optical characterization on a subset of DebriSat fragments is being conducted in ODPO’s Optical Measurement Center (OMC). Broadband bidirectional reflectance distribution (BRDF) measurements will provide insight into the optical-based NASA Size Estimation Model (OSEM). The OSEM equates an object’s brightness to size (e.g., diameter of a disk or sphere) given several assumed parameters, including a defined phase function, albedo, and range. To address the first defined parameter, the ODPO has been using ray-tracing software to simulate light conditions in the OMC and to generate phase functions (i.e., specular, Lambertian, and experimentally-derived) of known shapes, materials, and sizes. This simulated data, in addition to the experimentally derived measurements collected in the OMC, will aid in determining whether a new phase function would be suitable for an updated OSEM. The OSEM also assumes a single-value albedo, thus preimpact spectral measurements on a subset of DebriSat materials were acquired for baseline material characterization and to provide insight into spacecraft material taxonomies. This DebriSat spectral data, along with spectral measurements from other known spacecraft material samples, will allow for better analyses of albedo variations and the effect on size calculations of defined laboratory targets, thus further supporting OSEM updates. This paper provides an overview of DebriSat, the status of the project, updates on the parameter distributions, an overview of the NASA SSBM, and ongoing fragment characterization efforts within the OMC.

Heather Cowardin↗