Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “data predictive control”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,261 records · Page 70

State predictive information bottleneck

We report the ability to make sense of the massive amounts of high-dimensional data generated from molecular dynamics simulations is heavily dependent on the knowledge of a low-dimensional manifold (parameterized by a reaction coordinate or RC) that typically distinguishes between relevant metastable states, and which captures the relevant slow dynamics of interest. Methods based on machine learning and artificial intelligence have been proposed over the years to deal with learning such low-dimensional manifolds, but they are often criticized for a disconnect from more traditional and physically interpretable approaches. To deal with such concerns, in this work we propose a deep learning based state predictive information bottleneck approach to learn the RC from high-dimensional molecular simulation trajectories. We demonstrate analytically and numerically how the RC learnt in this approach is connected to the committor in chemical physics and can be used to accurately identify transition states. A crucial hyperparameter in this approach is the time delay or how far into the future the algorithm should make predictions about. Through careful comparisons for benchmark systems, we demonstrate that this hyperparameter choice gives useful control over how coarse-grained we want the metastable state classification of the system to be. We thus believe that this work represents a step forward in systematic application of deep learning based ideas to molecular simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The case for digital twins in metal additive manufacturing

The digital twin (DT) is a relatively new concept that is finding increased acceptance in industry. A DT is generally considered as comprising a physical entity, its virtual replica, and two-way digital data communications in-between. Its primary purpose is to leverage the process intelligence captured within digital models—or usually their faster-solving surrogates—towards generating increased value from the physical entities. The surrogate models are created using machine learning based on data obtained from the field, experiments and digital models, which may be physics-based or statistics-based. Anomaly detection and correction, and diagnostic closed-loop process control are examples of how a process DT can be deployed. In the manufacturing industry, its use can achieve improvements in product quality and process productivity. Metal additive manufacturing (AM) stands to gain tremendously from the use of DTs. This is because the AM process is inherently chaotic, resulting in poor repeatability. However, a DT acting in a supervisory role can inject certainty into the process by actively keeping it within bounds through real-time control commands. Closed-loop feedforward control is achieved by observing the process through sensors that monitor critical parameters and, if there are any deviations from their respective optimal ranges, suitable corrective actions are triggered. The type of corrective action (e.g. a change in laser power or a modification to the scanning speed) and its magnitude are determined by interrogating the surrogate models. Because of their artificial intelligence (AI)-endowed predictive capabilities, which allow them to foresee a future state of the physical twin (e.g. the AM process), DTs proactively take context-sensitive preventative steps, whereas traditional closed-loop feedback control is usually reactive. Apart from assisting a build process in real-time, a DT can help with planning the build of a part by pinpointing the optimum processing window relevant to the desired outcome. Again, the surrogate models are consulted to obtain the required information. In this article, we explain how the application of DTs to the metal AM process can significantly widen its application space by making the process more repeatable (through quality assurance) and cheaper (by getting builds right the first time).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Adaptive Urban Traffic Signal Control for Multiple Intersections: An LQR Approach

Traffic congestion leads to severe problems especially in urban traffic networks. It increases the chance of accidents, energy waste, and social costs. In order to address these problems, an adaptive linear quadratic regulator (LQR) approach is developed for traffic signal control at multiple intersections in an urban area. The proposed method controls the green time of the traffic signals to reduce traffic congestion and smooth traffic flow. Real-world data from vision-based traffic sensors are used to build the traffic network model, which mimics the real-world traffic behavior. In addition, the proposed control utilizes recursive least square parameter estimation, which is capable of tracking dynamic changes in traffic conditions. Simulation of Urban MObility (SUMO) is used to analyze the efficacy of the proposed method. Results of the simulation show that the proposed method outperforms pretimed control in various aspects.

adaptive LQR control↗

Iraq/Afghanistan war lung injury reflects burn pits exposure

This descriptive case series retrospectively reviewed medical records from thirty-one previously healthy, war-fighting veterans who self-reported exposure to airborne hazards while serving in Iraq and Afghanistan between 2003 and the present. They all noted new-onset dyspnea, which began during deployment or as a military contractor. Twenty-one subjects underwent non-invasive pulmonary diagnostic testing, including maximum expiratory pressure (MEP) and impulse oscillometry (IOS). In addition, five soldiers received a lung biopsy; tissue results were compared to a previously published sample from a soldier in our Iraq Afghanistan War Lung Injury database and others in our database with similar exposures, including burn pits. We also reviewed civilian control samples (5) from the Stony Brook University database. Military personnel were referred to our International Center of Excellence in Deployment Health and Medical Geosciences, Donald and Barbara Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell under the auspices of Northwell IRB: 17-0140-FIMR Feinstein Institution for Medical Research “Clinicopathologic characteristics of Iraq Afghanistan War Lung Injury.” We retrospectively examined medical records, including exposure data, radiologic imaging, and non-invasive pulmonary function testing (MGC Diagnostic Platinum Elite Plethysmograph) using the American Thoracic Society (ATS) standard interpretation based on Morgan et al., and for a limited cohort, biopsy data. Lung tissue, when available, was examined for carbonaceous particles, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (Raman spectroscopy), metals, titanium connected to iron (Brookhaven National Laboratory, National Synchrotron Light Source II, Beamline 5-ID), oxidized metals, combustion temperature, inflammatory cell accumulation and fibrosis, neutrophil extracellular traps, Sirius red, Prussian Blue, as well as polarizable crystals/particulate matter/dust. Among twenty-one previously healthy, deployable soldiers with non-invasive pulmonary diagnostic tests, post-deployment, all had severely decreased MEP values, averaging 42% predicted. These same patients concurrently demonstrated abnormal airways reactance (X5Hz) and peripheral/distal airways resistance (D5–D20%) via IOS, averaging – 1369% and 23% predicted, respectively. These tests support the concept of airways hyperresponsiveness and distal airways narrowing, respectively. Among the five soldiers biopsied, all had constrictive bronchiolitis. We detected the presence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH)—which are products of incomplete combustion—in the lung tissue of all five warfighters. All also had detectable titanium and iron in the lungs. Metals were all oxidized, supporting the concept of inhaling burned metals. Combustion temperature was consistent with that of burned petrol rather than higher temperatures noted with cigarettes. All were nonsmokers. Neutrophil extracellular traps were reported in two biopsies. Compared to our prior biopsies in our Middle East deployment database, these histopathologic results are similar, since all database biopsies have constrictive bronchiolitis, one has lung fibrosis with titanium bound to iron in fixed mathematical ratios of 1:7 and demonstrated polarizable crystals. These results, particularly constrictive bronchiolitis and polarizable crystals, support the prior data of King et al. (N. Engl. J. Med. 365:222–230, 2011) Soldiers in this cohort deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan since 2003, with exposure to airborne hazards, including sandstorms, burn pits, and improvised explosive devices, are at high risk for developing chronic clinical respiratory problems, including: (1) reduction in respiratory muscle strength; (2) airways hyperresponsiveness; and (3) distal airway narrowing, which may be associated with histopathologic evidence of lung damage, reflecting inhalation of burned particles from burn pits along with particulate matter/dust. Non-invasive pulmonary diagnostic tests are a predictor of burn pit-induced lung injury

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Transient mixing behavior of a supercritical fluid injected into supercritical and subcritical environments

Transient, near-field mixing of a supercritical fluid injected into supercritical and subcritical environments is investigated experimentally. Fuel (propane) from a 100 μm diameter Bosch diesel injector is injected into a high-pressure test rig with a steady flow of heated, low-velocity nitrogen to control the ambient pressure and temperature. The fuel supply pressure is approximately 190 bar, allowing short injections lasting 3–4 ms to be performed in quick succession to acquire statistically significant datasets to represent the unsteady fuel–air mixing. Two test cases with the same ambient density and injector inlet pressure and temperature were chosen in an attempt to isolate effects of mixture phase behavior. Microscopic rainbow Schlieren deflectometry (RSD) is used for visualization and quantitative data acquisition. In the case of the supercritical ambient, the injector inlet and exit and ambient conditions are all supercritical. The RSD analysis reveals a mixing process similar to the single phase fluid mixing, though condensation is also observed locally, and can be explained by the adiabatic mixing theory presented in the paper. For the subcritical ambient case, the injector inlet is supercritical, but the injector exit and ambient conditions are both subcritical. The results show a rapid expansion in the near-field promoting mixing between propane and nitrogen. At downstream locations, significant condensation is also observed as predicted by the adiabatic mixing theory. As a result, the supercritical ambient case exhibited longer and narrower jet penetration compared to the subcritical ambient case.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Validation of MPACT BWR capabilities against critical experiments

Over the years, significant validation work for the neutronics code MPACT has been performed against zero-power critical benchmarks and measured data from operating nuclear power plants. As a part of the Modeling and Analysis of Exelon BWRs for Eigenvalue and Thermal Limits Predictability project, new validation efforts relevant to boiling water reactor (BWR) core applications have been performed. This paper presents the results of the critical experiment portion of the BWR validation efforts for MPACT. The Kritz-4 experiments and IPEN/MB-01 BWR-relevant configurations are modeled with MPACT. The Kritz-4 BWR critical experiments were performed at both cold and hot conditions, which is a unique feature among other critical experiment facilities. The MPACT results with linear source (LS) Method of Characteristics (MOC) have very good agreement with the measured criticality. When using the 60-group BWR library with LS and P2 scattering, the maximum k{sub eff} error is 109 pcm, and the average cold-hot bias is only -0.11 pcm/K. The fission rate distributions of MPACT are also verified with Serpent calculations. For the IPEN facility, two configurations are considered: one with a large central void, and one with a cruciform control rod. The MPACT k{sub eff} errors are less than 50 pcm for all IPEN problems. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Permeate fluxes from desalination of brines and produced waters: A reactive transport modeling study

The increasing interest in the use of membrane systems to desalinate inland brackish water, agricultural drainage, and industrially produced wastewater demands improved means of predicting desalination system performance under variable feedwater compositions. The interaction among water flow, solute transport, and chemical composition in these systems impacts permeate flux evolution. Here, an established multicomponent reactive transport simulator that accounts for these coupled processes is applied to compute osmotic pressure and permeate fluxes in reverse osmosis (RO) systems. The model is first validated by predicting permeate fluxes for a set of benchtop crossflow experiments subject to a range of feed flow rates and compositions, under fouling and non-fouling conditions. Results compare favorably with measured data that show that solutions with similar total dissolved solids concentrations but different compositions result in different permeate fluxes. The model is then applied to predict permeate fluxes from the desalination of produced waters using a commercial spiral wound RO module. For NaCl-dominant brines, at total dissolved salt concentrations (TDS) below about 70 g/L, permeate fluxes are inversely proportional to water mole fraction as the latter is a reasonable approximation of water activity (i.e. ideal mixing). In the case of Ca–Cl-, Na–CO3- and Na–SO4-dominant brines below about 70 g/L TDS, this relationship does not hold as well and tends to overpredict osmotic pressure and thus underpredict permeate fluxes. However, the opposite becomes true at higher TDS values for typical produced waters. The scaling potential of these waters is also computed by allowing the precipitation of minerals above their saturation limit on the RO membrane. This work demonstrates how reactive transport models developed for the analysis of waters from geological systems can be extended to improve process design, optimization, and control in desalination systems from produced waters and beyond.

Molins, Sergi↗

A Multi-Scale Computational Platform for Predictive Modeling of Corrosion in Al-Steel Joints (Final Report)

The research team proposed to develop innovative multi-scale models to predict corrosion and the resulting mechanical performances in aluminum-steel joints. The methods of joining considered are resistance spot welding, self-piercing riveting, and rivet-welding, all suitable for mass production applications. The multi-scale models integrate high throughput first-principle calculations based on density functional theory (DFT), high throughput calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD) modeling, and finite element method (FEM) simulations. These models are to be validated through laboratory experiments. Furthermore, the models are available as open source so as to enable scientists and engineers in the community to adapt and contribute to the development and application. The approaches rely on the research team’s extensive experience on the prediction of properties of individual phases at finite temperatures and variable compositions through DFT calculations, and our broad expertise on dissimilar material joining and their corrosion. The proposed computational framework enables high throughput computations for improved predictions of corrosion and the associated mechanical performance in dissimilar material joints, resulting in significant reduction in computational time needed by the current state-of-the-art methods. With the participation of researchers from three universities, an auto manufacturer, two manufacturing technology/equipment suppliers, and a software developer/vendor, the interdisciplinary research team applies the technical development on both phase-based modeling and laboratory experiments into the automobile body joining processes for validation and technology demonstration. The global cost of corrosion was estimated at about 3.4% of the global GDP in 2013. By using available corrosion control practices, it is estimated a saving between 15-35% of the cost of corrosion. In the U.S., more than $276 billion is spent repairing corrosion damage. Prediction of the corrosion and its impact on performance of the dissimilar material joints is critical for reducing the massive number of the current corrosion-based recalls for automobiles. Thus, the project goal is to develop models to enable predictive maintenance and end-of-life planning of multi-metal joints with risk of corrosion under different conditions such as exposure to high temperatures in summer and salt solutions in winter, quantified through its pH. An academia-industry consortium led by the University of Michigan and including Pennsylvania State University, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, University of Georgia, General Motors Company, Livermore Software Technology Corporation, and Optimal Process Technologies, LLC. created multi-scale models for prediction of corrosion in aluminum-steel joint structures such of them used in vehicle subassemblies – chassis and transmission systems. Starting from the first principle calculations, the team developed mathematical and data-driven models to predict the metallic components, which are formed during joining of two metals, for example aluminum and steel - a lightweight multilateral system which is currently used in more than 60% car bodies. These models were used for simulating chemical reactions that are happening when the joining metallic components are exposed to high temperatures and different pH values. The team was able to predict how the corrosion installs on the metallic components and how they lead to a sudden failure of components in cars. Newly developed machine learning algorithms combining Science, Technology, Engineering and Math disciplines, advanced finite element simulation and experimental validations have been integrated in a platform for prediction of the corrosion evolution and prediction the failure of joints under mechanical loadings and fatigue. Moreover, based on machine learning and inverse analysis, the team proposed solutions for designing new metallic alloys less susceptible to corrosion when joining multi-material assembles. An average of 4% error compared with experiments was achieved for the most common joints that are used in vehicle subassemblies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development and Validation of Algorithms That Analyze Communicating Thermostat Data to Identify Enclosure Retrofit Opportunities

Annual energy savings of up to $\$ 4$ to $\$ 5$ billion could be achieved nationwide through basic insulation and heating system retrofits of existing homes. However, current utility energy efficiency programs are costly and challenging to scale. Customer acquisition occurs primarily through energy bill mailers, mass media, and online advertising that lack specificity about home-specific retrofit opportunities, expected energy savings, and cost-effectiveness. Specific retrofit opportunities are identified via on-site home energy assessments (HEAs) that are inconvenient to homeowners, expensive, and of variable accuracy. We developed computational algorithms that automatically analyze communicating thermostat (CT) heating data that could be used to increase the customer uptake of insulation and air sealing energy conservation measures (ECMs) by identifying homes with the most significant retrofit opportunities, estimating post-retrofit energy savings, and formulating home-specific outreach. The algorithms are based on an extended second-order grey-box model that characterizes a building’s thermal response using lumped elements, coupled with an empirical model of infiltration that accounts for both wind and stack effects. The basic parameters of the model correspond to actual physical parameters of the home, i.e., the home’s overall R-value of and the building envelope ACH50. Unlike the conventional approach, which estimates model parameters based on the best fit to the observed time-dependent room temperature, our approach derives correlations between the daily heating system runtime and temperature difference (indoor-outdoor) that are more robust to data quality issues in real-world applications. We also used HEA data for algorithm development and validation. With the help of our utility partners, Eversource and National Grid, we obtained data sets for hundreds of Massachusetts homes. For each home, these data sets included three sets of information anonymized by the utility: (1) CT data (HVAC runtime, room temperature, and, for some vendors, outdoor temperature and wind speed) collected by the CT vendor (one of three) over a heating season, (2) HEA report performed by the HEA vendor (same vendor for all homes), (3) Monthly utility gas bills coincident with the CT data (3 to 24 per home, depending on availability). For some homes, we also obtained blower-door test results. Initially, we applied the algorithms developed to homes with a single CT and then extended them to homes with two CTs by using an equivalent home approach. Finally, we developed algorithms for prediction of energy savings and a methodology of comparing our predictions with those generated by HEAs. The main technical results indicate that we can reliably identify homes with insulation and/or air sealing retrofit opportunities and provide accurate savings predictions. Our hypothesis is that the algorithms could be applied to utility energy efficiency programs to identify homes that could realize significant energy savings from insulation and/or air sealing retrofits. This information could then be used to reach out to those homes with highly customized outreach, thereby delivering increased program energy savings and cost-effectiveness. This would: Significantly increase the uptake rate of on-site HEAs, and Significantly increase the fraction of HEAs resulting in ECM implementation. To test these hypotheses, we designed and conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT). The RCT results suggest that personal messaging leads to a two- to five-fold increase in the HEA uptake rate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Predicting resistive wall mode stability in NSTX through balanced random forests and counterfactual explanations

Abstract Recent progress in the disruption event characterization and forecasting framework has shown that machine learning guided by physics theory can be easily implemented as a supporting tool for fast computations of ideal stability properties of spherical tokamak plasmas. In order to extend that idea, a customized random forest (RF) classifier that takes into account imbalances in the training data is hereby employed to predict resistive wall mode (RWM) stability for a set of high beta discharges from the NSTX spherical tokamak. More specifically, with this approach each tree in the forest is trained on samples that are balanced via a user-defined over/under-sampler. The proposed approach outperforms classical cost-sensitive methods for the problem at hand, in particular when used in conjunction with a random under-sampler, while also resulting in a threefold reduction in the training time. In order to further understand the model’s decisions, a diverse set of counterfactual explanations based on determinantal point processes (DPP) is generated and evaluated. Via the use of DPP, the underlying RF model infers that the presence of hypothetical magnetohydrodynamic activity would have prevented the RWM from concurrently going unstable, which is a counterfactual that is indeed expected by prior physics knowledge. Given that this result emerges from the data-driven RF classifier and the use of counterfactuals without hand-crafted embedding of prior physics intuition, it motivates the usage of counterfactuals to simulate real-time control by generating the β N levels that would have kept the RWM stable for a set of unstable discharges.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Reevaluation of the 22 Ne(α,γ) 26 Mg and 22 Ne(α,n) 25 Mg reaction rates

The competing 22 Ne(α, γ) 26 Mg and 22 Ne(α,n) 25 Mg reactions control the production of neutrons for the weak s process in massive and asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars. In both systems, the ratio between the corresponding reaction rates strongly impacts the total neutron budget and strongly influences the final nucleosynthesis. A number of experimental studies have been performed over recent years which necessitate the reevaluation of the 26 Mg and 22 Ne(α, γ) 25 Mg reactions control the production 26 Mg and 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg reaction rates. Evaluations of the reaction rates following the collection of new nuclear data presently show differences of up to a factor of 500, resulting in considerable uncertainty in the resulting nucleosynthesis. To reevaluate the 22 Ne(α, γ) 26 Mg and 22 Ne(α,n) 25 Mg reaction rates using updated nuclear data from a number of sources including updating spin and parity assignments. With updated spin and parity assignments, the levels which can contribute to the reaction rates are identified. The reaction rates are computed using a Monte Carlo method which has been used for previous evaluations of the reaction rates in order to focus solely on the changes due to modified nuclear data. The evaluated 22 Ne(α, γ) 26 Mg reaction rate remains substantially similar to that of Longland et al. but, including recent results from Texas A&M, the 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg reaction rate is lower at a range of astrophysically important temperatures. Stellar models computed with newton and mesa predict decreased production of the weak branch s process due to the decreased efficiency of 22 Ne as a neutron source. Using the new reaction rates in the mesa model results in 96 Zr / 94 Zr and 135 Ba / 136 Ba ratios in much better agreement with the measured ratios from presolar SiC grains. The 22 Ne + α reaction rates 22 Ne(α, γ) 26 Mg and 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg have been recalculated based on more recent nuclear data. The 22 Ne(α, γ) 26 Mg reaction rate remains substantially unchanged since the previous evaluation but the 22 Ne(α, γ) 25 Mg reaction rate is substantially decreased due to updated nuclear data. This results in significant changes to the nucleosynthesis in the weak branch of the s process.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Enhancing chemical bioproduction with rational control of bacterial post-translational modifications

Efficient conversion of inexpensive feedstocks to valuable chemicals by microbes is critical for a robust bioeconomy, but the ability to rationally design bacteria is hampered by insufficient knowledge of how post translational modifications (PTMs) control bacterial protein function and thus bioproduction phenotypes. Our study will focus on the lysine acetylation, a ubiquitous bacterial PTM that can affect the function of enzymes in central metabolism that are often critical for bioproduction processes, disrupt transcriptional regulation, and reduce translation. However, most lysine acetylation data is observational, which means that we do not know when, how, and what specific acetylated residues affect protein function and bacterial physiology. For our model host, we will use a Pseudomonas putida strain that we previously engineered to convert lignocellulosic feedstocks into chemicals such as itaconic acid (ITA). With this strain, we use a dynamic two-stage bioproduction process in which ITA is produced during a non-growth associated production phase. Production is highest during growth stages when lysine acetylation is low in other organisms (early stationary phase) and stalls in conditions where acetylation is highest (late stationary phase). The switch from high to stalled ITA production is also correlated with an unexpected increase in acetate levels – the precursor to non-enzymatic lysine acetylation. As such, we predict that lysine acetylation plays a substantial role in regulating the metabolic pathways required for ITA production. We will develop a generalizable approach that combines high-throughput genetic screens and cutting-edge genome engineering with state-of-the-art proteomics, metabolomics, and genetic code expansion methods to identify and modulate lysine acetylation patterns in bacteria. Ultimately, these strategies aim to manipulate protein expression and acetylation patterns to enhance bioproduction phenotypes (e.g., sustained ITA production in late stationary phase).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A User-Friendly GUI Tool for Automated Microstructural Analysis of Fiber-Reinforced Composites and Porous Structures

Understanding and quantifying microstructural features such as fiber orientation and porosity is critical for predicting the mechanical behavior and performance of fiber-reinforced polymer composites. Traditional manual analysis is time-consuming, subjective, and unsuitable for high-throughput datasets. We present a graphical user interface (GUI) application that automates the analysis of microscopy images to extract key microstructural metrics, including fiber orientation tensors, fiber orientation distribution, porosity and pore size distribution. The app integrates multiple image segmentation techniques including global and local thresholding, clustering, and region-based approaches, offering flexibility for different types of image qualities and features. Users can load microstructural images, select regions of interest and segmentation techniques tailored to their image dataset. It also addresses a critical challenge in fiber orientation analysis: the ambiguities caused by touching, overlapping, or partially cut fibers. It supports autorun examples for standardized workflows, enabling reproducible analysis and facilitating training and benchmarking. This tool significantly reduces manual intervention, enhances consistency, and accelerates data generation for structure–property modeling, process optimization, and digital materials research. The tool is intended for use by materials scientists, engineers, and researchers engaged in composite characterization, quality control, and machine learning-based microstructural studies.

Chawla, Komal [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000190327565)↗

Data-driven Mori–Zwanzig modeling of Lagrangian particle dynamics in turbulent flows

The dynamics of Lagrangian particles in turbulence play a crucial role in mixing, transport, and dispersion in complex flows. Their trajectories exhibit highly nontrivial statistical behavior, motivating the development of surrogate models that can reproduce these trajectories without incurring the high computational cost of direct numerical simulations of the full Eulerian field. This task is particularly challenging because reduced-order models typically lack access to the full set of interactions with the underlying turbulent field. Novel data-driven machine learning techniques can be powerful in capturing and reproducing complex statistics of the reduced-order/surrogate dynamics. In this work, we show how one can learn a surrogate dynamical system that is able to evolve a turbulent Lagrangian trajectory in a way that is point-wise accurate for short-time predictions (with respect to Kolmogorov time) and stable and statistically accurate at long times. This approach is based on the Mori–Zwanzig formalism, which prescribes a mathematical decomposition of the full dynamical system into resolved dynamics that depend on the current state and the past history of a reduced set of observables, and the unresolved orthogonal dynamics due to unresolved degrees of freedom of the initial state. We show how by training this reduced order model on a point-wise error metric on short time-prediction, we are able to correctly learn the dynamics of Lagrangian turbulence, such that also the long-time statistical behavior is stably recovered at test time. This opens up a range of applications, for example, for the control of active Lagrangian agents in turbulence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Correlative Surface Imaging Reveals Chemical Signatures for Bacterial Hotspots on Plant Roots

The rhizosphere is arguably the most complex microbial habitat on earth, comprising an integrated network of plant roots, soil and a highly diverse microbial community (the rhizosphere microbiome)1. Understanding, predicting and controlling plant-microbe interactions in the rhizosphere will allow us to harness the plant microbiome as a means to increase or restore plant ecosystem productivity, improve plant responses to a wide range of environmental perturbations, and mitigate effects of climate change by designing ecosystems for long-term soil carbon storage1. To this end, it is imperative to develop new molecular approaches with high spatial resolution to capture interactions at the plant-microbe, microbe-microbe, and plant-plant interfaces. In this work, we designed an imaging sample holder that allows integrated surface imaging tools to map the same locations of a plant root-microbe interface with submicron lateral resolutions, providing novel in vivo analysis of root-microbe interactions. Specifically, confocal fluorescence microscopy, time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and scanning electron microscope (SEM) were used for the first time for correlative imaging of the Brachypodium distachyon root and its interaction with Pseudomonas SW25, a typical plant growth-promoting soil bacterium. Imaging data suggest that the root surface is inhomogeneous and that the interaction between Pseudomonas and Brachypodium roots was confined to only few spots along the sampled root segments and that the bacterial attachment spots were enriched in Na- and S-related and high-mass organic species. We conclude that attachment of the Pseudomonas cells to the root surface is outcompeted by strong root-soil mineral interactions but facilitated by formation of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS).

Plant root, Plant growth-promoting bacteria, soil,↗

Rapid estimation of photosynthetic leaf traits of tropical plants in diverse environmental conditions using reflectance spectroscopy

Tropical forests are one of the main carbon sinks on Earth, but the magnitude of CO 2 absorbed by tropical vegetation remains uncertain. Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) are commonly used to estimate the CO 2 absorbed by forests, but their performance is highly sensitive to the parameterization of processes that control leaf-level CO 2 exchange. Direct measurements of leaf respiratory and photosynthetic traits that determine vegetation CO 2 fluxes are critical, but traditional approaches are time-consuming. Reflectance spectroscopy can be a viable alternative for the estimation of these traits and, because data collection is markedly quicker than traditional gas exchange, the approach can enable the rapid assembly of large datasets. However, the application of spectroscopy to estimate photosynthetic traits across a wide range of tropical species, leaf ages and light environments has not been extensively studied. Here, we used leaf reflectance spectroscopy together with partial least-squares regression (PLSR) modeling to estimate leaf respiration ( R dark25 ), the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco ( V cmax25 ), the maximum rate of electron transport ( J max25 ), and the triose phosphate utilization rate ( T p25 ), all normalized to 25°C. We collected data from three tropical forest sites and included leaves from fifty-three species sampled at different leaf phenological stages and different leaf light environments. Our resulting spectra-trait models validated on randomly sampled data showed good predictive performance for V cmax25 , J max25 , T p25 and R dark25 (RMSE of 13, 20, 1.5 and 0.3 μmol m -2 s -1 , and R 2 of 0.74, 0.73, 0.64 and 0.58, respectively). The models showed similar performance when applied to leaves of species not included in the training dataset, illustrating that the approach is robust for capturing the main axes of trait variation in tropical species. We discuss the utility of the spectra-trait and traditional gas exchange approaches for enhancing tropical plant trait studies and improving the parameterization of TBMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Boundary Layer Controls on the Shallow-to-Deep Cumulus Transition (Final Technical Report)

This project advanced our understanding of the processes governing cumulus cloud formation and provides an improved observational basis for validating earth system models. To be specific, the project used laser- and radar-remote sensors to examine the physical properties of updrafts that rise from earth’s surface and initiate clouds deeper in the atmosphere. These updrafts comprise “thermals” and “plumes” and occur at small spatial and temporal scales (e.g., 10s of minutes, 100s of meters). These small scales preclude explicit representation in most earth system and climate models, and thus necessitate “sub-grid-scale” parameterization of updraft processes. The innovation of this project was to directly measure the size, shape, strength and water vapor content of these updrafts with Doppler and Raman lidars, respectively, and to link these updraft properties to cloud processes using vertically pointed weather radars. The resulting data sets comprise 100s of thousands of updrafts and thousands of clouds, which far exceeds previous efforts, and thereby provides a robust statistical and physical representation of these processes. From these large datasets the project produced a sequence of scientific analyses that: (1) Elucidate how variations in the turbulent structure of the convective boundary layer control shallow cumulus convection, (2) Quantify the upward transport of water vapor to cloud base via thermals and plumes, (3) Validate large-eddy simulations of updrafts and shallow convective clouds, (4) Demonstrate a size-to-strength relationship between updraft width and updraft speed, and (5) Demonstrate how updrafts interact with the stability at the top of the convective boundary layer to modulate the depth and vigor of convective clouds. These results have been disseminated via several published journal articles, academic theses, and conference presentations. Collectively these results contribute to the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program’s goal to “improve understanding of the key cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and radiation processes that affect the Earth’s radiative balance and hydrological cycle, particularly processes that limit the predictive ability of regional and global earth system models”.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

KGML-ag: a modeling framework of knowledge-guided machine learning to simulate agroecosystems: a case study of estimating N<sub>2</sub>O emission using data from mesocosm experiments

Abstract. Agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emission accounts for a non-trivial fraction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. To date, estimating N2O fluxes from cropland remains a challenging task because the related microbial processes (e.g., nitrification and denitrification) are controlled by complex interactions among climate, soil, plant and human activities. Existing approaches such as process-based (PB) models have well-known limitations due to insufficient representations of the processes or uncertainties of model parameters, and due to leverage recent advances in machine learning (ML) a new method is needed to unlock the “black box” to overcome its limitations such as low interpretability, out-of-sample failure and massive data demand. In this study, we developed a first-of-its-kind knowledge-guided machine learning model for agroecosystems (KGML-ag) by incorporating biogeophysical and chemical domain knowledge from an advanced PB model, ecosys, and tested it by comparing simulating daily N2O fluxes with real observed data from mesocosm experiments. The gated recurrent unit (GRU) was used as the basis to build the model structure. To optimize the model performance, we have investigated a range of ideas, including (1) using initial values of intermediate variables (IMVs) instead of time series as model input to reduce data demand; (2) building hierarchical structures to explicitly estimate IMVs for further N2O prediction; (3) using multi-task learning to balance the simultaneous training on multiple variables; and (4) pre-training with millions of synthetic data generated from ecosys and fine-tuning with mesocosm observations. Six other pure ML models were developed using the same mesocosm data to serve as the benchmark for the KGML-ag model. Results show that KGML-ag did an excellent job in reproducing the mesocosm N2O fluxes (overall r2=0.81, and RMSE=3.6 mgNm-2d-1 from cross validation). Importantly, KGML-ag always outperforms the PB model and ML models in predicting N2O fluxes, especially for complex temporal dynamics and emission peaks. Besides, KGML-ag goes beyond the pure ML models by providing more interpretable predictions as well as pinpointing desired new knowledge and data to further empower the current KGML-ag. We believe the KGML-ag development in this study will stimulate a new body of research on interpretable ML for biogeochemistry and other related geoscience processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗