Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “data intensive computing”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

1,254 records · Page 70

Validation of Non-Invasive Waste Assay System (Gamma Box Counter) Performance at AECL Whiteshell Laboratories - 13136

Low-level radioactive waste (LLW) in solid form, resulting from decommissioning and operations activities at AECL's Whiteshell Laboratories (WL), is packaged in B-25 and B-1000 standard waste containers and characterized before it is shipped to an on-site interim storage facility, pending AECL decisions on long term management of its LLW. Assay of the waste packages before shipment contributes to an inventory of the interim storage facility and provides data to support acceptance at a future repository. A key characterization step is a gamma spectrometric measurement carried out under standard conditions using an automated, multi-detector Waste Assay System (WAS), purchased from Antech Corporation. A combination of ORTEC gamma acquisition software and custom software is used in this system to incorporate multiple measurements from two collimated high-resolution detectors. The software corrects the intensities of the gamma spectral lines for geometry and attenuation, and generates a table of calculated activities or limits of detection for a user-defined list of radioisotopes that may potentially be present. Validation of WAS performance was a prerequisite to routine operation. Documentation of the validation process provides assurance of the quality of the results produced, which may be needed one or two decades after they were generated. Aspects of the validation included setting up a quality control routine, measurements of standard point sources in reproducible positions, study of the gamma background, optimization of user-selectable software parameters, investigation of the effect of non-uniform distribution of materials and radionuclides, and comparison of results with measurements made using other gamma detector systems designed to assay bulk materials. The following key components of the validation process have been established. A daily quality control routine has been instituted, to verify stability of the gamma detector operation and the background levels. A test box containing plywood (specific gravity 0.5) with holes for reproducible positioning of known point sources has been constructed and used in several configurations. Gamma spectra have been processed multiple times with user-adjustable parameters set to a variety of values to gain agreement on the most appropriate settings. A similar optimization process was followed with the custom software provided by the instrument manufacturer to reach agreement on the most stable settings for reliable results. Measurements made with the Canberra In-Situ Object Counting System (ISOCS) instrument were compared with the WAS results as part of an estimate of instrument precision and accuracy. The validation report will conclude with recommendations for the configuration, appropriate use and limitations of the Waste Assay System. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis – Simulated Wind

The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis, hydrogen compression and storage, and variable hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes hydrogen production using a single, simulated wind turbine. The electrolyzer is a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 system manufactured by Nel Hydrogen . While the unit supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack. For the simulated wind energy profiles, NLR used OpenFAST to simulate a 3.4-MW International Energy Agency (IEA) reference wind turbine. The hour-long wind energy profiles varied over wind turbulence intensity (Class A or Class C) and average wind speed (5, 7, or 9 m/s). To match the power limits of the 1.25-MW electrolyzer and 3.4-MW IEA wind turbine most effectively and to maximize the efficiency of hydrogen production at a given average wind speed, the profiles were sometimes scaled by two times. This means that, in some cases, the experimental setup assumed two 1.25-MW electrolyzers were coupled with the wind turbine, representing a total maximum electrolysis load of 2.5 MW. Finally, NLR experimented with two settings for the electrolyzer power supply minimum and maximum current ramp rates (gain and slew): 200 and 400 amperes per second. The simulated profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1-Hz frequency. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single wind turbine electrolysis experiment and is formatted as follows: {technology}-{average wind speed}-{turbulence class}_{number of 1.25 MW electrolyzers connected}-{electrolyzer ramp rate in amperes/second} For instance, “windIEA3.4-5ms-C_2-400.zip” represents the hour-long experiment using the IEA 3.4-MW turbine, subjected to an average wind speed of 5 m/s and Class C wind turbulence, and connected to two 1.25-MW electrolyzers with the power supply set to a maximum current ramp rate (gain and slew) of 400 A/s. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data. An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production in kilograms per hour, electrolysis power consumption, and input wind turbine power. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30 minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all simulated wind experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_wind_experiments.csv". NLR also built an AI/machine-learning predictive model based on these datasets. The model ingests the electrolyzer current command in amperes, as well as various pressures and temperatures across the system, and predicts hydrogen output in kilograms per hour. The complete model can be found at https://huggingface.co/NatLabRockies/ptmelt-hydrogen-electrolysis .

08 HYDROGEN↗

Evaluating a Historical Airborne Release Test with Modern Modeling Methods

Safety analysts throughout the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex rely on the data provided in the DOE Handbook, DOE-HDBK-3010, to determine source terms that may be incorporated into the document safety analyses. Most often, analysts simply take the bounding values due to time constraints or simply to bound calculations. This is a safe approach that helps avoid regulatory critique; however, it may not provide results that are meaningful or relevant to the conditions being evaluated. The derivation of the data, such as airborne release fractions (ARFs) and respirable fractions (RFs) in the Handbook often depend on very limited table-top and bench/laboratory experiments, as well as engineering judgment which may not be well substantiated, and may not be representative of the actual situation. One historical dataset included a test where a solid contaminant was sprinkled over a liquid gasoline pool and set on fire (also referred to as Mishima and Schwendiman's test later in this paper). The airborne release was measured over the duration of the burn, but then collected separately for a time after the burning was completed. It can be assumed that the collected contaminant in the latter period corresponds to re-suspended particles, whereas the earlier period collected contaminant includes a combination of directly released as well as early released re-suspended particles. This scenario was recently modeled using SIERRA/Fuego as part of a parametric sensitivity study, however there were some shortcomings of the analysis methods. First, the code at the time lacked a multi-component particle evaporation model, which is necessary to capture the particle size effect of liquid/solid particles that can dynamically evaporate the liquid component. Second, a particle sticking and resuspension model did not exist at the time of the study. Recent model implementation now permits the study be repeated with the improved physical models. In the earlier work, four potential mechanisms were considered to potentially contribute to the release of the particles. These were: 1. Evaporation Induced Entrainment (EIE); 2. Surface Agitation by Wind; 3. Surface Agitation by Boiling; 4. Residue Entrainment (Resuspension). The sensitivity study evaluated mechanism 1 and 3 in the above list. Parameters varied were selected to be a reflection of a practical range of test conditions. The varied parameters included the boiling duration, fuel height, injected mass, particle size, turbulence intensity, and initial particle height. The boiling duration was the most significant parameter. The most significant mechanism was no.3, Surface Agitation by Boiling. This paper reports the implementation of the new multi-component evaporation model and its effect on the findings from the previous effort. The Mishima and Schwendiman test was re-modeled with the new evaporation model, and the results of the re-evaluation are presented. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

A combined static-dynamic single-dose imaging protocol to compare quantitative dynamic SPECT with static conventional SPECT

Background: SPECT myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) is a clinical mainstay that is typically performed with static imaging protocols and visually or semi-quantitatively assessed for perfusion defects based upon the relative intensity of myocardial regions. Dynamic cardiac SPECT presents a new imaging technique based on time-varying information of radiotracer distribution, which permits the evaluation of regional myocardial blood flow (MBF) and coronary flow reserve (CFR). In this work, a preliminary feasibility study was conducted in a small patient sample designed to implement a unique combined static-dynamic single-dose one-day visit imaging protocol to compare quantitative dynamic SPECT with static conventional SPECT for improving the diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods: Fifteen patients (11 males, four females, mean age 71 ± 9 years) were enrolled for a combined dynamic and static SPECT (Infinia Hawkeye 4, GE Healthcare) imaging protocol with a single dose of {sup 99m}Tc-tetrofosmin administered at rest and a single dose administered at stress in a one-day visit. Out of 15 patients, eleven had selective coronary angiography (SCA), 8 within 6 months and the rest within 24 months of SPECT imaging, without intervening symptoms or interventions. The extent and severity of perfusion defects in each myocardial region was graded visually. Dynamically acquired data were also used to estimate the MBF and CFR. Both visually graded images and estimated CFR were tested against SCA as a reference to evaluate the validity of the methods. Results: Overall, conventional static SPECT was normal in ten patients and abnormal in five patients, dynamic SPECT was normal in 12 patients and abnormal in three patients, and CFR from dynamic SPECT was normal in nine patients and abnormal in six patients. Among those 11 patients with SCA, conventional SPECT was normal in 5, 3 with documented CAD on SCA with an overall accuracy of 64%, sensitivity of 40% and specificity of 83%. Dynamic SPECT image analysis also produced a similar accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. CFR was normal in 6, each with CAD on SCA with an overall accuracy of 91%, sensitivity of 80%, and specificity of 100%. The mean CFR was significantly lower for SCA detected abnormal than for normal patients (3.86±1.06 vs 1.94±0. 0.67, P < 0.001). Conclusions: The visually assessed image findings in static and dynamic SPECT are subjective, and may not reflect direct physiologic measures of coronary lesion based on SCA. The CFR measured with dynamic SPECT is fully objective, with better sensitivity and specificity, available only with the data generated from the dynamic SPECT method.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

WE-G-16A-01: Evolution of Radiation Treatment Planning

Welcome and Introduction - Lawrence N. Rothenberg This symposium is one a continuing series of presentations at AAPM Annual Meetings on the historical aspects of medical physics, radiology, and radiation oncology that have been organized by the AAPM History Committee. Information on previous presentations including “Early Developments in Teletherapy” (Indianapolis 2013), “Historical Aspects of Cross-Sectional Imaging” (Charlotte 2012), “Historical Aspects of Brachytherapy” (Vancouver 2011), “50 Years of Women in Medical Physics” (Houston 2008), and “Roentgen's Early Investigations” (Minneapolis 2007) can be found in the Education Section of the AAPM Website. The Austin 2014 History Symposium will be on “Evolution of Radiation Treatment Planning.” Overview - Radhe Mohan Treatment planning is one of the most critical components in the chain of radiation therapy of cancers. Treatment plans of today contain a wide variety of sophisticated information conveying the potential clinical effectiveness of the designed treatment to practitioners. Examples of such information include dose distributions superimposed on three- or even four-dimensional anatomic images; dose volume histograms, dose, dose-volume and dose-response indices for anatomic structures of interest; etc. These data are used for evaluating treatment plans and for making treatment decisions. The current state-of-the-art has evolved from the 1940s era when the dose to the tumor and normal tissues was estimated approximately by manual means. However, the symposium will cover the history of the field from the late-1950's, when computers were first introduced for treatment planning, to the present state involving the use of high performance computing and advanced multi-dimensional anatomic, functional and biological imaging, focusing only on external beam treatment planning. The symposium will start with a general overview of the treatment planning process including imaging, structure delineation, assignment of dose requirements, consideration of uncertainties, selection of beam configurations and shaping of beams, and calculations, optimization and evaluation of dose distributions. This will be followed by three presentations covering the evolution of treatment planning, which parallels the evolution of computers, availability of advanced volumetric imaging and the development of novel technologies such as dynamic multi-leaf collimators and online image guidance. This evolution will be divided over three distinct periods - prior to 1970's, the 2D era; from 1980 to the mid-1990's, the 3D era; and from the mid 1990's to today, the IMRT era. When the World was Flat: The Two-Dimensional Radiation Therapy Era” - Jacob Van Dyk In the 2D era, anatomy was defined with the aid of solder wires, special contouring devices and projection x-rays. Dose distributions were calculated manually from single field, flat surface isodoses on transparencies. Precalculated atlases of generic dose distributions were produced by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Massive time-shared main frames and mini-computers were used to compute doses at individual points or dose distributions in a single plane. Beam shapes were generally rectangular, with wedges, missing tissue compensators and occasional blocks to shield critical structures. Dose calculations were measurement-based or they used primary and scatter calculations based on scatter-air ratio methodologies. Dose distributions were displayed on line printers as alpha-numeric character maps or isodose patterns made with pen plotters. More than Pretty Pictures: 3D Treatment Planning and Conformal Therapy - Benedick A. Fraass The introduction of computed tomography allowed the delineation of anatomy three-dimensionally and, supported partly by contracts from the National Cancer Institute, made possible the introduction and clinical use of 3D treatment planning, leading to development and use of 3D conformal therapy in the 1980's. 3D computer graphics and 3D anatomical structure definitions made possible Beam's Eye View (BEV) displays, making conformal beam shaping and much more sophisticated beam arrangements possible. These conformal plans significantly improved target dose coverage as well as normal tissue sparing. The use of dose volume histograms, gross/clinical/planning target volumes, MRI and PET imaging, multileaf collimators, and computer-controlled treatment delivery made sophisticated planning approaches practical. The significant improvements in dose distributions and analysis achievable with 3D conformal therapy made possible formal dose escalation and normal tissue tolerance clinical studies that set new and improved expectations for improved local control and decreasing complications in many clinical sites. From the Art to the State of the Art: Inverse Planning and IMRT - Thomas R. Bortfeld While the potential of intensity modulation was recognized in the mid- 1980's, intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) did not become a reality until the mid-1990's. Broad beams of photons could be sub-divided into narrow beamlets whose intensities could be determined using sophisticated optimization algorithms to appropriately balance tumor dose with normal tissue sparing. The development of dynamic multi-leaf collimators (on conventional linear accelerators as well as in helical delivery devices) enabled the efficient delivery of IMRT. The evolution of IMRT planning is continuing in the form of Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy (VMAT) and through advanced optimization tools, such as multi-criteria optimization, automated IMRT planning, and robust optimization to protect dose distributions against uncertainties. IMRT also facilitates “dose painting” in which different sub-volumes of the target are prescribed different doses. Clearly, these advancements are being made possible by the increasing power and lower cost of computers and developments in other fields such as imaging and operations research. Summary - Radhe Mohan The history does not end here. The advancement of treatment planning is expected to continue, leading to further automation and improvements in conformality and robustness of dose distributions, particularly in the area of particle therapy. Radiobiological modeling will gain emphasis as part of the planning process. Learning Objectives: The scope of changes in technology and the capabilities of radiation treatment planning The impact of these changes in the quality of treatment plans and optimality of dose distributions The impact of development in other fields (imaging, computers, operations research, etc.) on the evolution of radiation treatment planning.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Updates to the Alliance of Genome Resources central infrastructure

The Alliance of Genome Resources (Alliance) is an extensible coalition of knowledgebases focused on the genetics and genomics of intensively studied model organisms. The Alliance is organized as individual knowledge centers with strong connections to their research communities and a centralized software infrastructure, discussed here. Model organisms currently represented in the Alliance are budding yeast, Caenorhabditis elegans, Drosophila, zebrafish, frog, laboratory mouse, laboratory rat, and the Gene Ontology Consortium. The project is in a rapid development phase to harmonize knowledge, store it, analyze it, and present it to the community through a web portal, direct downloads, and application programming interfaces (APIs). Here, we focus on developments over the last 2 years. Specifically, we added and enhanced tools for browsing the genome (JBrowse), downloading sequences, mining complex data (AllianceMine), visualizing pathways, full-text searching of the literature (Textpresso), and sequence similarity searching (SequenceServer). We enhanced existing interactive data tables and added an interactive table of paralogs to complement our representation of orthology. To support individual model organism communities, we implemented species-specific “landing pages” and will add disease-specific portals soon; in addition, we support a common community forum implemented in Discourse software. We describe our progress toward a central persistent database to support curation, the data modeling that underpins harmonization, and progress toward a state-of-the-art literature curation system with integrated artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Subtask 1.3 – Integrated Carbon Capture and Storage for North Dakota Ethanol Production

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with Red Trail Energy, LLC (RTE), a North Dakota ethanol producer; the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) Renewable Energy Program (REP); and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), conducted a feasibility and implementation study for a commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) effort. This subtask provided technical support and developed recommended practices of how small-scale industrial CO2 emitters (<1,000,000 tonnes of CO2 emitted annually) may economically deploy CCS. The 64-million-gallon dry mill RTE ethanol facility, emitting an average 180,000 tonnes of CO2 annually, was the subject of the case study. The positive outcome of this research, which shows technical and economic potential for ethanol–CCS in North Dakota, has resulted in RTE acquiring an approved Permit to Drill on December 2, 2019, for a stratigraphic test well in early 2020, a necessary step toward a North Dakota CO2 Storage Facility Permit (SFP) for the RTE CCS effort. Outcomes include 1) validating the Broom Creek Formation as a regional target for CCS, 2) determining the full carbon life cycle of an industrial fuel production facility with CCS, 3) developing a field implementation plan (FIP) for small-scale CCS, and 4) determining the validity and pathway for using CCS to meet low-carbon fuel (LCF) standards. The technical team included the EERC, RTE, Trimeric Corporation, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Computer Modelling Group (CMG). Findings from activities conducted November 2016 – May 2020 are summarized as follows. Several key steps have been accomplished toward validating the Broom Creek Formation as a CO2 injection and storage target at the RTE CCS site, including verification of the presence and structure of sandstone layers that may comprise the potential CO2 storage reservoir and the several thousand feet of overlying confining zone. Work included site characterization using existing data, interpretation of seismic data within the study area, and geologic modeling simulation of CO2 injection. Interpreted results estimate 3000 feet of confining zone between the Broom Creek Formation (storage target) and the lowermost underground source of drinking water (e.g., the Fox Hills Formation). The thickness of the Broom Creek injection target varies 230–420 ft within the survey area. Results were used to inform the location of a stratigraphic test well and associated characterization test program. No impediments were identified within the targeted CO2 storage complex that would prevent the project from moving forward. A stratigraphic test well is the next step to validate these results and to acquire remaining data necessary to develop a North Dakota CO2 SFP application. The EERC generated full carbon life cycle estimates for CCS integration with the RTE ethanol facility. Results indicated that an average 40% reduction in CO2 emissions is possible through CCS implementation. Approximately half of the carbon in the overall life cycle for a dry mill ethanol plant is generated through the fermentation process and emitted to the atmosphere; this is the CO2 stream targeted for CCS. The remaining carbon is attributed to corn feedstock farming (diesel, fertilizer), energy for fuel processing (natural gas, electricity), and transportation (diesel) of the fuel product. Life cycle carbon estimates are also affected by the anticipated energy consumption of a potential capture facility, which depend on the type of CO2 product generated. For example, a 30%–40% net CO2 emission reduction is estimated if a liquefied CO2 facility were incorporated compared to a 40%–50% net CO2 reduction if a supercritical “injection-grade” CO2 product is generated; i.e., more energy is required to further refine the CO2 stream, affecting the full carbon life cycle estimates. A CCS FIP was developed and initiated at the RTE CCS site, resulting in the development of several guidance documents: a CO2 Capture Process Design Package, a North Dakota CO2 geologic Storage Permits Template, and a Public Outreach Package for CCS in North Dakota. General FIP components include CO2 capture system, pipeline and well designs; monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) plans; geologic characterization and testing programs; and permitting and outreach plans. Vendor bids were also acquired for the CO2 liquefaction facility. Near-surface characterization (groundwater and soil gas sampling) and geologic characterization (seismic survey) were initiated to inform development of a UIC Class VI-compliant MVA plan compliant with a North Dakota CO2 SFP. Designs (well and geologic testing) were completed for a stratigraphic test well compliant with a North Dakota CO2 SFP. In addition, the outreach plan was executed, including community open houses, meetings with city/county/state officials, and development of public materials. Although other entities continued to mature incentive programs in 2019–2020, California and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) currently provide the most advanced economic opportunities for CCS integrated with fuel production. The California Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) adopted a CCS Protocol in January 2019, allowing submittal of a design-based pathway (DBP) application for an approved temporary (not certified) carbon intensity value for a fully engineered facility. An ethanol–CCS DBP application to the California LCFS Program (officially approved February 28, 2020) was developed to show that the RTE CCS effort meets LCFS requirements. The approved DBP provides confidence to advance the project and supports potential investments. Other entities continue to mature incentive programs. The IRS issued guidance in February 2020 that addresses the definition of beginning of construction and revenue procedure on partnerships for the Enhancement of Carbon Dioxide Sequestration Credit (a.k.a. Section 45Q) CCS tax credit program; the IRS anticipates issuing further guidance on issues such as secure geologic storage, utilization qualifications, and recapture of claimed credits. Maturing incentive programs coupled with workable permitting regulations provide confidence to advance CCS projects in North Dakota and support financial investment to proceed with designing, constructing, and implementing CCS projects at small-scale fuel production facilities. The largest hurdles for CCS implementation at small-scale industrial systems are often business/economic-related (i.e., not technical). Market uncertainty already exists for agriculture-based alternative fuels such as corn ethanol, for which production has increased by ~33%, and prices have correspondingly lowered since 2015. Passing the Section 45Q tax credit program improves economic feasibility for CCS but may require external investors for a small business to achieve maximum benefits. Public–private partnerships with NDIC and DOE have resulted in foundational technical and regulatory knowledge, growing stakeholder confidence, and a pathway to implementation that enables similar industrial CCS projects in the region to advance. This subtask was funded through the EERC–DOE Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by NDIC and RTE. The authors would also like to thank CMG, ESRI, IHS, Neuralog, and Schlumberger for allowing the use of their software packages in support of this work.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Epi Archive: automated data collection of notifiable disease data

LANL has built a software program that automatically collects global notifiable disease data—particularly data stored in files—and makes it available and shareable within the Biosurveillance Ecosystem(BSVE) as a new data source. This will improve the prediction and early warning of disease events and other applications. Most countries do not report national notifiable disease data in a machine-readable format. Data are often in the form of a file that contains text, tables and graphs summarizing weekly or monthly disease counts. This presents a problem when information is needed for more data intensive approaches to epidemiology, biosurveillance and public health as exemplified by the Biosurveillance Ecosystem(BSVE).While most nations do likely store their data in a machine-readable format, the governments are often hesitant to share data openly for a variety of reasons that include technical, political, economic, and motivational issues. For example, an attempt by LANL to obtain a weekly version of openly available monthly data, reported by the Australian government, resulted in an onerous bureaucratic reply. The obstacles to obtaining data included: paperwork to request data from each of the Australian states and territories, a long delay to obtain data (up to 3 months) and extensive limitations on the data’s use that prohibit collaboration and sharing. This type of experience when attempting to contact public health departments or ministries of health for data is not uncommon. A survey conducted by LANL of notifiable disease data reporting in 52 countries identified only 10 as being machine-readable and 42 being reported in pdf files on a regular basis. Within the 42 nations that report in pdf files, 32 report in a structured, tabular format and10 in a non-structured way. As a result, LANL has developed a tool-Epi Archive (formerly known as EPIC)-to automatically and continuously collect global notifiable disease data and make it readily accessible. We conducted a survey of the national notifiable disease reporting systems notating how the data is reported in two important dimensions: date standards and case definitions. The development of software to regularly ingests notifiable disease data frand makes this data available involved four main steps scraping, extracting, parsing and persisting. For scraping: we would examine website designs and determine reporting mechanisms for each country/website as well as what varies across the reporting mechanisms. We then designed and wrote code to automate the downloading of report pdf files, for each country. We stored report pdfs along with appropriate metadata for extracting and parsing. For extracting: we developed software that can extract notifiable disease data presented in tabular form from a pdf file. We combined the methodology of figure placement detection with the in-house developed table extraction and annotation heuristics. For parsing: we determined what to extract from each pdf dataset from the survey conducted. We then parsed the extracted data into uniform data structures correctly accommodating the dimensions surveyed and the various human languages. This task involved ingesting notifiable disease data in many disparate formats extracted from pdf files and coalescing the data into a standardized format. For persisting: We then store the data in the Epi Archive PostgreSQL database and make it available through the BSVE. The EpiArchive tool currently contains subnational notifiable disease data from 10 nations. When a user accesses the EpiArchive site, they are prompted with four fields: country, region, disease, and date duration. These fields allow the user to specify the location(down to the state level), the disease of interest, and the duration of interest. Upon form submission, a time series is generated from the users’ specifications. The generated time series can then be downloaded into a csv file if a user is interested in performing personal analysis. Additionally, the data from EpiArchive can be reached through an API. LANL as part of a currently funded DTRA effort so that it will automatically and continuously collect global notifiable disease data—particularly data stored in pdf files—and make it available and shareable within the Biosurveillance Ecosystem (BSVE) as a new data source. This will provide data to analytics and users that will improve the prediction and early warning of disease events and other applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantitative Characterization of Impacts of Coupled Geomechanics and Flow on Safe and Permanent Geological Storage of CO 2 in Fractured Aquifers

This is the final scientific report for the award DE-FE0023305, entitled “Quantitative Characterization of Impacts of Coupled Geomechanics and Flow on Safe and Permanent Geological Storage of CO 2 in Fractured Aquifers.” The work has been divided into six tasks. In Task 2, we characterized rock properties, which are important when developing a quantitative approach for understanding and predicting geomechanical effects on large-scale CO 2 injection and long-term storage in the subsurface. Rock properties of interest for this characterization include porosity, permeability, elastic constants, strength, and heat capacity. We measured rock properties for three different rock types: concrete, sandstone and shale. These properties were obtained from the acoustic measurement, permeability and porosity measurement, Brazilian test, the uniaxial compressive test, and heat capacity measurement. Then, using the Brazilian technique to fracture samples, we measured their permeability under brine injection for varying effective stresses, followed by similar measurements of permeability under sc-CO 2 injection. Permeability to brine and sc-CO 2 decreased as the effective stress increased. The apparent permeability to sc-CO 2 was an order of magnitude less than that for brine, a consequence of CO 2 being the non-wetting fluid. In Task 3, we developed understandings and correlations for CO 2 injection pressure induced fracturing. We initially fractured four eight inch cubes of concrete with brine to establish a standard test procedure. Then, additional concrete samples were fractured using brine. Confining stresses were exerted on the samples and brine was injected at a constant rate into a borehole that was previously drilled into the concrete cube. The borehole pressure was measured and fracture initiation was identified as a peak in the pressure profile. That was followed by fracture propagation, which was identified as a plateau in the pressure profile, and finally the fracture reached the sample surface. The sample surfaces were photographed before and after fracturing, which enabled determination of where the fracture reached the sample surface. Afterwards, aqueous food dye solution was injected into the fractured concrete samples to color the fracture planes. The borehole was filled with food dye solution in advance, a gas pulse was transmitted to the borehole, and the borehole was then shut in to allow the food dye to be driven into existing fractures. Then, the concrete samples were broken down by high-pressure gas injection to reveal the geometry and morphology of the hydraulic fractures. In addition, acoustic measurements were conducted on multiple locations on each face of the concrete samples before and after injection for comparison. This comparison was used to confirm changes in the internal structure of the concrete sample, namely the formation of fractures. There were six concrete samples fractured with brine. Afterwards, concrete samples were fracture using sc-CO 2 . The main change in experimental procedure was the inclusion of temperature control, since in the field, we mostly encounter temperature and pressure conditions above the supercritical point of CO 2 . The concrete samples were pre-heated in an oven to elevate their temperature, and thermal tape was used to heat the CO 2 to a temperature above its supercritical temperature. Two concrete samples were fractured using liquid CO 2 , four concrete samples were fractured using gaseous CO 2 , and twenty two concrete samples were fractured using sc-CO 2 . For the concrete samples fractured using sc-CO 2 , three had pre-existing hydraulic fractures on the surface near the wellbore, and two were water saturated (as opposed to containing only air). Two concrete samples were composite samples, with a high permeability ball in the center, in order to represent CO 2 injection into a high permeability zone surrounded by a low permeability sealing formation. Later, we fractured five shale samples, obtained from the Niobrara shale outcrop, with sc-CO 2 . The injection rate was constant, confining stresses were applied, the shale samples were pre-heated in an oven to the desired temperature, and the sample was then fractured. An analysis of the failure type was done for many of the concrete samples, based on the predicted break down pressure for tensile and shear failure, and it was found that most samples fractured due to shear failure. Also, the presence of induced fractures has little to no effect on the fracture initiation pressure, but significantly changes the fracture morphology. The CO 2 fracturing in water saturated samples behaved much similar to brine induced fracturing. There was a significant difference of breakdown pressure for injection of CO 2 and brine, where the breakdown pressure for CO 2 induced fracturing is generally around the minimum horizontal stress and that for brine is much higher. Finally, the fracture orientation for most samples with large confining stress differential was perpendicular to the minimum horizontal stress. When the stress differential, especially the difference between the two directions with the smallest stresses was small, the fracture orientation was determined not only by the minimum stress direction, but also the magnitude of the confining stress, the tensile strength of the rock, and the breakdown pressure. In Task 4, we modified our coupled flow-geomechanical models to model fracture growth and propagation in storage formations and caprocks. These flow-geomechanical models are TOUGH2-CSM and TOUGH2-FLAC. The TOUGH2-CSM fluid and heat flow formulation is based on the TOUGH2 formulation of mass and energy conservation equations that govern fluid and heat flow in general multiphase, multicomponent, multi-porosity systems. The TOUGH2-CSM simplified geomechanical formulation is based on the linear theory of elasticity applied to multi-porosity non-isothermal (thermo-multi-poroelastic) media. We previously derived, from the fundamental relations of the linear theory of elasticity, an equation relating mean stress, pore pressures, temperatures, and body force (the Mean Stress equation) that we added to the TOUGH2-CSM fluid and heat flow equations. We extended the TOUGH2-CSM simplified geomechanical formulation to calculate the entire stress tensor by deriving equations for stress tensor components from derivatives of the Cartesian thermo-multi-poroelastic Navier equation components. In addition, we derived equations for stress tensor components in rz-coordinates. We solved these geomechanical equations using the integral finite difference method. This method utilizes momentum fluxes obtained by “factoring” a divergence operator out of each geomechanical equation. In Task 5, we did a literature survey to determine suitable correlations for fracture initiation, growth, and propagation. After surveying numerous papers, we modified TOUGH2-CSM to model stress dependent fracture initiation and growth using the Mohr-Coulomb criterion for shear failure in faults and caprock and the condition of negative minimum effective stress for tensile failure. Tensile failure results in a fracture whose width depends on the difference between fracture pressure and minimum stress and whose propagation is based on the difference between the stress intensity factor at the fracture tip and the rock toughness. The TOUGH-FLAC model is based on the FLAC3D ubiquitous joint model, extended for the modeling of permeability changes induced by changes in effective normal stress across fractures as well permeability changes caused by shearing along fractures. In Task 6, we validated our coupled flow-geomechanical models using analytical solutions and problems from the literature. We validated the TOUGH2-CSM modifications using analytical solutions to the displacement from a uniform load on a semi-infinite elastic medium and the two-dimensional Mandel-Cryer effect. Those were followed by a sample problem to test our stress tensor calculations, which was for injection into a single-phase reservoir with constant properties. Comparisons of our simulator to published results were done on for the depletion of a single-phase reservoir with stress dependent porosity, two examples from the In Salah gas project, an axisymmetric baserock–reservoir–caprock system with a normal faulting stress regime that had thermally induced shear stresses, simulations of CO 2 leakage through caprock in a two-dimensional reservoir in Cartesian coordinates, and predictions of caprock failure from CO 2 injection into an axisymmetric reservoir. Finally, we simulated CO 2 injection pressure-induced fracturing from one of our laboratory studies, Sample 39, and obtained a fracture profile. We also validated the TOUGH2-FLAC model for fluid driven fracture growth against solutions based on the KGD model and a case with an inclined fracture that was loaded from the boundaries to achieve wing-crack propagation. The strain softening tensile behavior and softening of modulus considering a simple damage approach was verified by a simulation representing hydraulic fracturing stress measurement around a vertical well. Finally, the model was validated against deep fracture zone opening and surface uplift at In Salah with inverses analysis used to improve the match of simulation with field data. In Task 7, we developed a scheme based on inverse modeling that can be used to identify caprock leakage. Injection of fluid into a reservoir results in a time varying pressure profile that depends on the properties of the rock and the fluid. The presence of significant caprock leakage would effect this pressure profile and we used inverse modeling, namely the Levenberg-Marquardt method, to determine the leakage location from the pressure profile. A two-dimensional and a three-dimensional example based on published data were presented. The published simulation was run and its results were considered as “field” data. In the two-dimensional example, a simulation of CO 2 injection into a two-dimensional aquifer-caprock system, the caprock had a vertical fault through which leakage could occur. The location of this leakage was obtained from our inverse modeling scheme. In the three-dimensional example, the simulation domain had four geological layers, one of which was the injection zone that contained a horizontal injection well. We simulated fractures as high permeability gridblocks, introduced a fracture that spanned the caprock depth, and ran a simulation to obtain “field” data. Then, using our inverse modeling scheme, we obtained the location of that fracture.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Case Study: Nuclear-Renewable-Water Integration in Arizona

This document reports the application of the N-R HES software framework to a case study for Arizona Public Service (APS); the manager and part owner of the Palo Verde (PV) nuclear power plant. The case study is a work in progress of which this report presents a detailed description of the current model input data, assumptions and the corresponding results produced by the developed software framework. The goal of the report is, that with this information APS (together with INL) should be able to identify where more detailed data and more accurate model assumptions are necessary to reproduce all driving physical and economic phenomena in order to capture enough complexity of the reality to allow APS to use the results for their strategic decisions. The N-R HES software framework started being developed at INL two years ago [ref]. The framework has reached some level of maturity so that it can be applied to more than simple demonstration cases, e.g. real industry problems. Nevertheless, more capabilities are constantly added to accommodate the special needs of these challenging real life problems. The N-R HES framework is built on top of the RAVEN code [ref] and uses it as driver and workflow manager for all calculations. The framework has specifically been developed for the economic assessment of N-R HES systems. There are four main cornerstones of the N-R HES simulation framework: 1) generation of stochastic time series, 2) a probabilistic analysis and optimization set of algorithms available in RAVEN, 3) a set of models for representation of the physical behavior of N-R HES, and 4) a RAVEN plug-in that maps physical performance into economic performance called CashFlow. Within this framework, a broad spectrum of questions related to N-R HES can be addressed. One of the challenges currently of high interest is that the increasing penetration of variable renewables is altering the profile of the net demand (demand after removing all non curtailable renewable energy sources), with which the other generators on the grid have to cope. The N-R HES software framework is capable to analyze the potential feasibility of mitigating the resultant volatility in the net electricity demand. One possible solution to that problem currently intensively studied by the energy industry is adding stabilizing loads to the grid. These loads can be external industrial processes that are able to ramp production up and down quickly or adding variable internal loads that will lift the base load of the power plant. The latter is a possible solution currently studied by APS. APS if currently anticipating several challenges that will likely arise in the near future. One of them is, as mentioned, coping with the rapid growth of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources put on the grid. Although APS can sell its electricity for a fixed retail price to cover the local demand first, it also sells electricity in excess of the local demand at the Palo Verde energy hub. Due to the growing VRE penetration, the Palo Verde hub electricity spot price is negative more and more frequently. To mitigate this price volatility, APS is seeking to add more base load, so that the quantity of excess energy to be sold for prices potentially less than the internal retail price or even negative prices at the hub is reduced. A second challenge APS is facing is that their cooling water acquisition contract with the Sub Regional Operating Group (SROG) will expire soon and a renewal can only be done for a significantly higher price of the water. Therefore, APS is also seeking for alternative sources for their cooling water. An opportunity currently under investigation is to pump a limited quantity of brackish water from the regional ground water. Although much cheaper than the water from the new SROG contract, the salinity of the brackish water is so high that a blend of brackish and SROG water would need additional treatment to improve its quality for use in the cooling towers. An on-site reverse osmosis (RO) desalination plant is envisaged to reduce the salinity to an acceptable level. This report investigates the economic impact of such an RO plant. As one can see, the RO plant would help with both problems APS is facing: First, it would rise the APS base load helping to mitigate VRE induced hub price volatility. From this perspective, the RO plant can be seen as a stabilizing load on the grid as would be any other industrial process. Second, the RO’s goods, e.g. the clean water produced can be used by APS itself for a (hopefully) lower cost than 100% SROG water would be. The report will first describe the APS water procurement strategy in detail and lay out the possible alternative scenarios studied in this document. This is covered in Chapter 2. Next, in Chapter 3, the APS case model developed within the N-R HES software framework is described. This chapter includes also a description of the needed framework developments to accommodate the APS study.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluating cosmological biases using photometric redshifts for Type Ia Supernova cosmology with the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program

Cosmological analyses with Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) have traditionally been reliant on spectroscopy for both classifying the type of supernova and obtaining reliable redshifts to measure the distance–redshift relation. While obtaining a host-galaxy spectroscopic redshift for most SNe is feasible for small-area transient surveys, it will be too resource intensive for upcoming large-area surveys such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, which will observe on the order of millions of SNe. Here, we use data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) to address this problem with photometric redshifts (photo-z) inferred directly from the SN light curve in combination with Gaussian and full p(z) priors from host-galaxy photo-z estimates. Using the DES 5-yr photometrically classified SN sample, we consider several photo-z algorithms as host-galaxy photo-z priors, including the Self-Organizing Map redshifts (SOMPZ), Bayesian Photometric Redshifts (BPZ), and Directional-Neighbourhood Fitting (DNF) redshift estimates employed in the DES 3 × 2 point analyses. With detailed catalogue-level simulations of the DES 5-yr sample, we find that the simulated w can be recovered within ±0.02 when using SN+SOMPZ or DNF prior photo-z, smaller than the average statistical uncertainty for these samples of 0.03. With data, we obtain biases in w consistent with simulations within ~1σ for three of the five photo-z variants. We further evaluate how photo-z systematics interplay with photometric classification and find classification introduces a subdominant systematic component. This work lays the foundation for next-generation fully photometric SNe Ia cosmological analyses.

(cosmology:) dark energy↗

Full-polarization millimeter wavelength variability of Sagittarius A * during the 2018 EHT campaign

Context. Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), the supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, provides a unique laboratory to study accretion dynamics and plasma processes near the event horizon. Aims. We investigated the variability and polarization properties of Sgr A* using ALMA observations during the 2018 Event Horizon Telescope campaign. Methods. We analyzed high-cadence full-polarization light curves from ALMA at millimeter wavelengths, performed time-series analysis, and investigated the temporal behavior during an X-ray flare observed by Chandra on 2018 April 24. The variability characteristics are compared with expectations from standard accretion flow models. Results. We find low variability in total intensity (σ/μ < 10%), but significantly higher variability in linear and circular polarization (∼30% and ∼50%, respectively). A time-series analysis reveals red-noise variability, with power spectral densities between −2 and −3 across all Stokes parameters. Polarized intensity shows stable intra-day timescales, while total intensity exhibits more variable timescales, suggesting distinct emission regions, with polarization likely arising from a coherent structure. On April 24, a statistically significant inter-band delay in polarized intensity coincides with a near-simultaneous X-ray and millimeter peak that deviates from the typical delayed flare scenario. This event also features enhanced millimeter variability and coherent polarization loop evolution. The observed simultaneity challenges standard models of transient synchrotron emission with cooling delays, favoring instead a scenario of continuous energy injection in an optically thin region. Conclusions. Our results offer new constraints on the physical mechanisms driving variability in Sgr A*, and provide key observational input for refining theoretical models of accretion and plasma behavior in the vicinity of supermassive black holes.

Galaxy: center↗