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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Universal correlation for falling film evaporation heat transfer coefficients of water and seawater

Horizontal falling film evaporators are widely utilized in desalination industries to increase fresh water supply. However, universal correlations for seawater falling film evaporation under varied operational and geometrical conditions are simply unavailable in open literature. Thus, this study aims to develop such a universal correlation for both plain and enhanced tubes. The detailed heat transfer mechanisms are reviewed, and rational parameters are incorporated to develop the universal correlation. A dataset of 994 data points from 9 sources covering a wide range of conditions was compiled. These conditions include Reynolds numbers from 10 to 7235, heat fluxes from 7.7 to 208 kW/m -2 , saturation temperatures from 278 to 401 K, salinities from 0 to 60 gsalt kg -1 water, tube diameters from 15.8 to 50.8 mm, and liquid feeder height to diameter ratios from 1 to 2.25. Upon analysis, it was found that most of the recommended existing correlations exhibited poor predictive accuracy, as evidenced by larger MADs. The developed correlation in this study demonstrated the best predictive accuracy for the entire dataset, yielding a MAD of 16.8 % and an R 2 of 0.82. Furthermore, the performance of the new correlation was individually assessed across a broader spectrum of operational and design conditions, reflecting the individual conditions’ influences with an overall MAD of 20 %.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High Temperature Erosion Modeling in Particle Based CSP Systems

1. Introduction. Wear and erosion damage of materials from solid particle and surface interactions is a major issue in various industries. Although more common in mining and oil and gas production, erosion is becoming a critical issue in renewable technologies as well such as particle based concentrated solar thermal power (CSP) systems. In particle based CSP systems, solid particles are used to absorb solar energy and as thermal storage. However, these particles may cause significant amount of wear to system components while through the system at high temperatures. This damage can be costly, and therefore, requires a greater understanding of solid particle erosion in CSP systems. Throughout the years, models and tools have been developed to predict and control erosion in industries such as oil and gas production. However, these erosion models and erosion prediction tools have been mainly developed based on erosion data for much higher velocities and lower temperatures, i.e. the operating conditions for which the existing models have been built are not pertinent to those expected in CSP system. It is known that erosion depends on many factors such as material properties, erodent particle properties, and particle impact speed and angle. However, the effect of temperature on erosion is not vastly investigated. In this work, a temperature-based correlation is introduced that will be used to modify the existing erosion models to predict erosion rates at velocities and temperatures relevant to Gen3 CSP systems. The existing models are first validated against erosion experiments run at low temperatures and low velocities. Subsequently, a temperature correction term is developed that can extend the existing models to high temperatures, based on the available experimental data showing the effect of temperature on impact erosion. 2. Erosion Models. Continuing sequence of impacts from solid particles on surfaces would result in loss of material due to mechanical interaction between solid surface and particles. Erosion equations have been developed to predict erosion under different conditions and erosion mechanism, including cutting and deformation erosion. These models are mainly either mechanistic, empirical, and semi-mechanistic models, when the latter combine the theory of the erosion mechanism and particle motion with the available experimental data. One of the first empirical correlation was introduced by American Petroleum Institute (API) Recommended Practice (RP) 14E [1]. This correlation was very conservative, and several improved empirical and semi-mechanistic equations were developed in the years following. More recently, the models introduced by Erosion/Corrosion Research Center (E/CRC) at the University of Tulsa and Arabnejad. et al. [2] are frequently used in the literature and industry, as they account for many parameters affecting erosion including particle impact speed and angle, material density and hardness, and particle size and shape. However, both these models were developed based on data at relatively high velocities and also do not take into account any mechanical changes in material associated with thermal cycling at high temperatures. 3. Erosion Prediction at High Temperatures. In this work, the accuracy of Arabnejad et al. model and E/CRC model is investigated to predict impact erosion at conditions relevant to Gen3 CSP systems. Two significant deviations expected in Gen3 systems compared to operating conditions used to build these models are particle impact velocities and system temperature. As a first step, the performance of these models was validated at low velocities and temperatures. Impact erosion experiments were conducted on SS316 coupons using HSP 40/70 ceramic particles. Assuming particle rate of 1 kg/s/m, 0.0254 m of particle curtain thickness, and particle velocity of 1.5 m/s in the system, an overall erosion of 0.59 mm/year was calculated. The experimental results were subsequently compared to those from computational simulations and erosion of 0.47 mm/year was obtained using the Arabnejad et al. model. The results indicated that the models work well at low velocities and low temperature conditions. To account for temperature effect, a mathematical correlation was developed using data published by DUCOM [3] for Inconel 600 eroded by alumina particles at high velocities. The correlation was applied to both Arabnejad et. al model and the E/CRC model. The prediction results from these modified models were within 20% of this experimental data. Predictions of of erosion by the modified E/CRC model at three different temperatures are made. Similar to the calculation at low temperature, a typical CSP system with 1 kg/s/m of particle flow rate per unit length of the particle curtain and a curtain thickness of 0.0254 m is assumed. The annual thickness loss calculations were run for different particle impact velocities, assuming a uniform particle impact area equal to the cross-sectional area of the curtain (particle-particle interactions and dispersion of particles are not considered in obtaining the results). It is observed that erosion increases exponentially as temperature increases. Furthermore, it is also noted that, erosion changes non-linearly with impact velocity. Currently, experiments are also being conducted to measure erosion of SS316 at 800 ºC with HSP 40/70 particles at low impact velocities. We expect to use the results from high temperature testing to further improve the temperature correlation function. Similar models are also being developed for abrasion erosion resulting from particle sliding along the surfaces as well as attrition from particle to particle and particle to surface interactions. References. [1] Institute, A. P. (1991). API Recommended Practice for Design and Installation of Offshore Production Platform Piping System, API RP 14E. [2] Arabnejad, H., Mansouri, A., Shirazi, S. A., and McLaury, B. S. (2015a). Development of mechanistic erosion equation for solid particles. Wear, 332–333, 1044–1050. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.wear.2015.01.031. [3] https://ducom.com/high-temperature-erosion-evaluating-sample-wear/

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Reactor Containment Passive Safety Analysis: Steam Condensation in Presence of Non-condensable Gas Scaled Experiment and Modeling

This study presents steam condensation scaled experiments and semi-empirical models in presence of nitrogen (N)—a noncondensable gas (NCG), simulating air in the reactor containment—to support water-cooled small modular reactors (SMRs) passive containment cooling system (PCCS) design and analysis. Previous experimental studies on PCCS are focused on fixed and smaller tube (mostly 2-in.) geometries and specific test condition variations, bringing challenges with geometric scaling and mismatching with SMR prototypic design. To address these challenges, this study presents steam condensation test dataset obtained from three scaled test sections of 1-, 2-, and 4-in.-diameter steam condensers with an annular/jacket cooling of 2-, 3-, and 6 in.-diameter tubes, respectively. Test data were collected for steam ranges from 58 to 63 kg/hr., and NCG flow of 4.4 to 13.3 kg/hr. Annular cooling water flow was varied to obtain required testing conditions of saturated steam inlet and fully condensed outlet. Axial temperature test data of bulk cooling water, steam and condensate were collected by thermocouples for three test sections and various steam-NCG mixing/testing conditions. A standard data reduction method was adopted—utilizing iterative and nodalized mass and heat transfer calculation—to estimate axial local heat fluxes, heat transfer coefficients (HTCs), condensation rates, film thickness, and Nusselt number. Based on the obtained dataset semi-empirical model results—a ratio of experimental and Nusselt’s theoretical HTC are presented. Such results and findings are supportive of developing scaled-up testing facility, to enable model validations and accelerate next generation of reactors development and deployment

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Presentation: Reactor Containment Passive Safety Analysis: Steam Condensation in Presence of Non-condensable Gas Scaled Experiment and Modeling

This study presents steam condensation scaled experiments and semi-empirical models in presence of nitrogen--a noncondensable gas (NCG), simulating air in the reactor containment--to support water-cooled small modular reactors (SMRs) passive containment cooling system (PCCS) design and analysis. Previous experimental studies on PCCS are focused on fixed and smaller tube (mostly 2-in.) geometries and specific test condition variations, bringing challenges with geometric scaling and mismatching with SMR prototypic design. To address these challenges, this study presents steam condensation test dataset obtained from three scaled test sections of 1-, 2-, and 4-in.-diameter steam condensers with an annular/jacket cooling of 2-, 3-, and 6 in.-diameter tubes, respectively. Test data were collected for steam ranges from 58 to 63 kg/hr., and NCG flow of 4.4 to 13.3 kg/hr. Annular cooling water flow was varied to obtain required testing conditions of saturated steam inlet and fully condensed outlet. Axial temperature test data of bulk cooling water, steam and condensate were collected by thermocouples for three test sections and various steam-NCG mixing/testing conditions. A standard data reduction method was adopted--utilizing iterative and nodalized mass and heat transfer calculation to estimate axial local heat fluxes, heat transfer coefficients (HTCs), condensation rates, film thickness, and Nusselt number. Based on the obtained dataset semi-empirical model results--a ratio of experimental and Nusselt's theoretical HTC are presented. Such results and findings are supportive of developing scaled-up testing facility, to enable model validations and accelerate next generation of reactors development and deployment.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Pyrogenic Organic Matter Laboratory Experiment: Aerobic Respiration and Geochemistry from Variably Inundated Stream Sediments (v3)

This dataset supports a broader study examining the effects of variable inundation and pyrogenic organic matter on ecosystem respiration. The dataset provides data generated from a laboratory batch experiment investigating the interaction between variable inundation conditions (wet and dry sediment) and pyrogenic organic matter (burned and unburned treatments). The contents include time series dissolved oxygen, sediment geochemistry data, and field metadata (including qualitative information on instream and river corridor characteristics). This data package was originally published in November 2025. It was updated in April 2026 (v2; new and modified files) and May 2026 (v3; modified files). See the change history section in the readme for more details For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) field metadata; (4) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; (5) readme; (6) field protocol; (7) sample name metadata; (8) an environmental context picture for the dry and inundated sampling locations; and (9) a subfolder with sample data from the sediment incubation experiment. The sample data subfolder contains (1) dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC); (2) total nitrogen (TN); (3) gravimetric moisture; (4) partial pressure and production rates of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide; (5) field wet sediment mass, dry sediment mass, water mass, and field wet sediment volume in incubation and sediment NPOC/TN vials; (6) methods codes; (7) respiration rates, pH, and temperature from after the incubation, raw time series dissolved oxygen and temperature, and a subfolder containing associated plots and scripts; (8) ions; (9) FTICR-MS methods; and (10) a subfolder of 12 Tesla (12T) FTICR-MS data. This folder contains the CoreMS processed data and three subfolders, one containing the .xml files, one containing the CoreMS output files, and the other containing instructions and scripts for processing the files in CoreMS (https://github.com/EMSL-Computing/CoreMS). All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .xml, .html, .Rmd, .py, .cal, .json, or .jpg.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Continual Learning for Production-Level Machine Learning in Particle Accelerators

Particle accelerators operate in complex environments where data distribution can change dynamically, leading to data drifts that significantly challenge Machine Learning (ML) models. These non-stationary conditions often cause ML models to deteriorate in performance, making it difficult to maintain reliable predictions in operation. The primary sources of data drifts are changes in accelerator settings and changes in equipment performance which cannot be measured directly. To bridge this gap between ML development and long-term deployment in operational settings, we identify key areas within particle accelerators where continual learning can help mitigate drift-induced performance degradation. We will provide a practical guide on selecting the appropriate method given resource constraints and desired stability plasticity trade offs. As a concrete example, we will present a real-world use case for anomaly detection to predict errant beams at the Spallation Neutron Source accelerator, where continual learning has been employed to demonstrate stable performance on drifting data streams. We will present practical challenges, lessons learned, and the results from the deployed ML model.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗

Validation and Verification of Python based Neutron Spectrum Unfolding Software

To validate and verify the python-based code (PySL), designed to replicate the programs used by STAYSL for Beam Correction Factor (BCF) and Self-Shielding Factor (SHIELD), a series of tests were performed. To test BCF a python script was written to generate a random flux history file and both versions of the code processed the data. The test verified matching values up to at least one decimal place, approximately 10,000 tests where run and each one passed. Isotopes began to fail the tests once neutron saturation was reached. To verify this the total time of exposure was varied the isotopes that failed were compared to a list of their half-lives. The test process for SHIELD was very similar but, in this case, the code began by producing an input file with varying thickness and device type/environment for the SHIELD input. The failure condition for this test was if any of the data points for an isotope had a difference above 3%. Approximately 40 of these tests were run and there were only 3 isotopes that had reoccurring failures but only 2% of their points were above the 3% difference. A visual comparison was conducted by plotting the results from both programs. Although the test failed, the differences between their values were minuscule, and the self-shielding factor’s shape was preserved when plotted. Next steps for this project will be validating and verifying the python-based SigPhi code and then reproducing and testing the least squares unfolding performed by STAYSL.

73 - NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Data collection from crystals grown in microfluidic droplets

Protein crystals grown in microfluidic droplets have been shown to be an effective and robust platform for storage, transport and serial crystallography data collection with a minimal impact on diffraction quality. Single macromolecular microcrystals grown in nanolitre-sized droplets allow the very efficient use of protein samples and can produce large quantities of high-quality samples for data collection. However, there are challenges not only in growing crystals in microfluidic droplets, but also in delivering the droplets into X-ray beams, including the physical arrangement, beamline and timing constraints and ease of use. Here, the crystallization of two human gut microbial hydrolases in microfluidic droplets is described: a sample-transport and data-collection approach that is inexpensive, is convenient, requires small amounts of protein and is forgiving. It is shown that crystals can be grown in 50–500 pl droplets when the crystallization conditions are compatible with the droplet environment. Local and remote data-collection methods are described and it is shown that crystals grown in microfluidics droplets and housed as an emulsion in an Eppendorf tube can be shipped from the US to the UK using a FedEx envelope, and data can be collected successfully. Details of how crystals were delivered to the X-ray beam by depositing an emulsion of droplets onto a silicon fixed-target serial device are provided. After three months of storage at 4°C, the crystals endured and diffracted well, showing only a slight decrease in diffracting power, demonstrating a suitable way to grow crystals, and to store and collect the droplets with crystals for data collection. This sample-delivery and data-collection strategy allows crystal droplets to be shipped and set aside until beamtime is available.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Learning neural representations for X-ray ptychography reconstruction with unknown probes

X-ray ptychography provides exceptional nanoscale resolution and is widely applied in materials science, biology, and nanotechnology. However, its full potential is constrained by the critical challenge of accurately reconstructing images when the illuminating probe is unknown. Conventional iterative methods and deep learning approaches are often suboptimal, particularly under the low-signal conditions inherent to low-dose and high-speed experiments. These limitations compromise reconstruction fidelity and restrict the broader adoption of the technique. In this work, we introduce the Ptychographic Implicit Neural Representation (PtyINR), a self-supervised framework that simultaneously addresses the object- and probe-recovery problem. By parameterizing both as continuous neural representations, PtyINR performs end-to-end reconstruction directly from raw diffraction patterns without requiring any pre-characterization of the probe. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that PtyINR achieves superior reconstruction quality on both simulated and experimental data, with remarkable robustness under challenging low-signal conditions. Furthermore, PtyINR offers a generalizable, physics-informed framework for addressing probe-dependent inverse problems, making it applicable to a wide range of computational microscopy problems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Intelliquench: An Adaptive Machine Learning System for Detection of Superconducting Magnet Quenches

In superconducting magnets, the irreversible transition of a portion of the conductor to resistive state is called a “quench.” Having large stored energy, magnets can be damaged by quenches due to localized heating, high voltage, or large force transients. Unfortunately, current quench protection systems can only detect a quench after it happens, and mitigating risks in Low Temperature Superconducting (LTS) accelerator magnets often requires fast response (down to ms). Additionally, protection of High Temperature Superconducting (HTS) magnets is still suffering from prohibitively slow quench detection. In this study, we lay the groundwork for a quench prediction system using an auto-encoder fully-connected deep neural network. After dynamically trained with data features extracted from acoustic sensors around the magnet, the system detects anomalous events seconds before the quench in most of our data. While the exact nature of the events is under investigation, we show that the system can “forecast” a quench before it happens under magnet training conditions through a randomized experiment. This opens up the way of integrated data processing, potentially leading to faster and better diagnostics and detection of magnet quenches

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Investigating the Impact of Power-Take-Off System Parameters and Control Law on a Rotational Wave Energy Converter’s Peak-to-Average Power Ratio Reduction

Due to the irregular nature of real waves, the power captured in a wave energy converter (WEC) system is highly variable. This is an important barrier to the effective use of WECs. To address this challenge, this study focuses on a rotational WEC power-take-off system in which high-speed and high-efficiency generators along with a torque/power smoothing inertia element can be effectively utilized. In the first phase of this study, the U.S. Department of Energy’s reference model 3 (WEC-Sim RM3; two-body point absorber), along with a slider-crank WEC, were integrated for linear to rotational conversion. Relative motion between the float and spar in RM3 was the driving force for this slider-crank WEC, which is connected to a motor/generator set through a gearbox. RM3 geometry was scaled down by 25 times to work within the limits of the physical motor/generator set used in the experimentation. Once the integration in a hardware-in-the-loop simulation environment was successfully completed, data on the peak-to-average power ratio was collected for various wave conditions including regular and irregular waves. The control algorithm designed to keep the system in resonance with waves was able to maintain relatively high speed depending on the specific gear ratio and wave period. Initial results with hardware-in-the-loop simulations reveal that gear ratio and crank radius have a strong impact on the peak-to-average power ratio. In addition, it was found that output power from the generator was maximized at a larger gear ratio, as the crank radius was increased.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗

Data efficiency assessment of generative adversarial networks in energy applications

This study investigates the data requirements of generative artificial intelligence (AI), particularly generative adversarial networks (GANs), for reliable data augmentation in energy applications. Generative AI, though seen as a solution to data limitations, requires substantial data to learn meaningful distributions—a challenge often overlooked. This study addresses the challenge through synthetic data generation for critical heat flux (CHF) and power grid demand, focusing on renewable and nuclear energy. Two variants of GAN employed are conditional GAN (cGAN) and Wasserstein GAN (wGAN). Our findings include the strong dependency of GAN on data size, with performance declining on smaller datasets and varying performance when generalizing to unseen experiments. Mass flux and heated length significantly influence CHF predictions. wGAN is more robust to feature exclusion, making it suitable for constrained synthetic data generation. In energy demand forecasting, wGAN performed well for solar, wind, and load predictions. Longer lookback hours and larger datasets improved predictions, especially for load power. Seasonal variations posed challenges, with wGAN achieving a relatively high error of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.32 for load power prediction, compared to RMSE of 0.07 under same-season conditions. Feature exclusions impacted cGAN the most, while wGAN showed greater robustness. This study concludes that, while generative AI is effective for data augmentation, it requires substantial data and careful training to generate realistic synthetic data and generalize to new experiments in engineering applications.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

FY23 Progress on Computational Modeling of the Water-Based NSTF

This report summarizes the system-level modeling effort by Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) of the Natural convection Shutdown heat removal Test Facility (NSTF) in FY23. As a continuation of the modeling effort from FY22, this year’s work focuses on improving the RELAP5-3D model developed previously for two-phase flow simulations. The RELAP5-3D model is updated to more accurately capture the heat loss experienced by the facility. The updated model is compared against experimental data for benchmarking purposes of the RELAP5-3D input model. By correctly accounting for heat loss, the updated RELAP5-3D model can now predict the two-phase baseline case more accurately. The onset and the duration of instability are captured well by the model. Furthermore, analyses are performed to better understand the instability mechanism experienced by the flow where the expansion of the boiling boundary in the chimney is studied in details and the fundamental frequencies of the oscillations are obtained. The updated RELAP5-3D model is further compared against four fault conditions, namely the reduction of riser header inlet flow area, depletion of system inventory, blocked riser channels, and static boiling scenario. For each fault condition, minor modifications and tuning are performed to improve the predictions of the model. The purpose of the analyses is to investigate the capability of RELAP5-3D in predicting complex two-phase flows in possible accident scenarios in actual Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). Overall, the model is able to capture the behaviors and trends of these fault conditions relatively well. Some discrepancies remain between the experimental data and the predictions, many of which are likely due to the differences in the predicted and experimental vapor generation rate. Future work will focus on the continued development of the current RELAP5-3D input model of the NSTF to both improve the accuracy of the model’s predictive capability and continue supporting the experimental program needs. The mutually beneficial relationship between analysis and experimental efforts has become integral to the parent NSTF program, and the greater objective to fully understand and accurately predict the heat removal performance of a full scale RCCS concept.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Modeling Air Handling Units to Create a Diverse Fault Dataset for FDD Innovation: Lessons Learned and Recommendations

As energy management and information systems (e.g., automated fault detection and diagnostics [AFDD] tools) become more prevalent in the commercial building stock, it is important to determine the effectiveness of these technologies by benchmarking their performance. The authors have been working to develop the largest publicly available dataset of HVAC fault datasets for performance benchmarking applications, covering the most common HVAC systems and designs including chiller plants, rooftop packaged units, dual duct air handling unit and single duct air handling units. This study covers the development, modeling, and validation of a synthetic fault dataset for the air handling unit (AHU), one of the most common HVAC configurations found in the commercial building stock. Despite this being a common system, real-world time series data are scarce and usually do not span a wide range of weather conditions. Due to this limitation, two detailed AHU models, which included the single duct AHU and dual duct AHU developed in the Modelica language and HVACSIM+ were employed to carry out annual simulations of numerous common sensor faults, mechanical faults, and control sequence faults. The fault inclusive data were then validated by comparing fault effects on system performance to expected symptoms. We summarize the nature of each fault and their impacts under different weather and operation conditions. We report some lessons learnt during the efforts of validating the high volumes of the FDD data sets. Finally, we highlight considerations for FDD developers that may want to use this dataset to assess their algorithms’ performance and their improvement over time.

Casillas, Armando↗

Neutron computed tomography of B12W and M8N socket sections of the Arecibo telescope

From neutron user principal investigator: We kindly request the public release of three neutron imaging datasets through ONCat. All datasets were collected from two forensic specimens, B12W and M8N, sectioned from zinc-filled steel-wire sockets recovered from the collapsed Arecibo Telescope. The dataset titled “Neutron radiographs of B12W and M8N socket sections of the Arecibo telescope” contains normalized two-dimensional (2D) neutron radiographs of the specimens, showing the geometry and spatial distribution of the steel wires embedded within the zinc matrix, as well as internal features such as voids and cracks. The dataset titled “Neutron computed tomography of B12W and M8N socket sections of the Arecibo telescope” contains normalized 2D neutron projection images acquired over a range of specimen rotation angles for one selected region of each specimen. These projection images were used to reconstruct three-dimensional (3D) tomographic volumes that reveal the embedded-wire geometry and internal defects. The dataset titled “Bragg edge imaging (BEI) of B12W and M8N socket sections of the Arecibo telescope” contains six time-of-flight (TOF) neutron imaging datasets, three from each specimen, acquired at regions of interest selected based on the radiographs. The spatially resolved 2D TOF images show the zinc matrix and embedded steel wires, and the wavelength-dependent neutron transmission data were used to characterize crystallographic texture within the zinc. All components and their condition are in the public domain as they are the property of the National Science Foundation (NSF). The neutron imaging data, part geometries, and detailed forensic information have been widely published in the Arecibo Telescope Collapse Forensic Report by Thornton Tomasetti Engineers and others (NASA report and NASEM report).

Bilheux, Hassina↗

Investigation of acoustic waves under subsurface conditions to improve the predictions of rock mechanical properties and natural fracture characteristics

Mechanical properties and natural fracture characteristics are critical to investigate for subsurface engineering applications, including carbon storage, well drilling, and stimulation, as they govern rock stability, fluid flow, and mechanical behavior under stress. This dissertation integrates experimental and machine learning approaches to enhance the prediction and understanding of these properties by analyzing acoustic wave behavior under varied subsurface conditions. First, the influence of temperature, pore pressure, and supercritical CO2 (scCO2) saturation on poroelastic properties is examined using Gray Berea sandstone samples. The results show that temperature and pore pressure significantly affect the bulk modulus and Biot’s coefficient, while scCO2 saturation impacts rock compressibility, informing strategies for effective geological carbon storage. The study extends this understanding by experimentally evaluating the impact of reservoir depletion on the dynamic mechanical properties of the emerging Caney shale in South Oklahoma with the employment of unsupervised machine learning to predict static mechanical properties across the Caney shale. Integrating petrophysical data and chemostratigraphy, the workflow—featuring K-means clustering, principal component analysis (PCA), and inverse distance weighting (IDW)—improves stratigraphic characterization and the estimation of static-to-dynamic modulus ratios, which is vital for optimizing drilling and stimulation strategies. Finally, the work explores how natural fracture characteristics in shale influence acoustic waveforms and shear wave splitting (SWS) analysis. Experimental data on fractured samples under different stress and temperature conditions, combined with machine learning models such as K-nearest neighbors (KNN) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), reveal key fracture properties impacting SWS and wave propagation. Together, these studies provide a comprehensive framework for linking acoustic wave behavior with rock properties, advancing the methods for monitoring and predicting geomechanical changes. The insights offered valuable implications for safer, more efficient CO2 injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and subsurface management.

Elkholy, Sherif↗

CIS Project 22359, Final Technical Report. Discretized Posterior Approximation in High Dimensions

Our primary aim in this work is to understand how to efficiently obtain reliable uncertainty quantification in automatic learning algorithms with limited training datasets. Standard approaches rely on cross-validation to tune hyper parameters. Unfortunately, when our datasets are too small, holdout datasets become unreliable—albeit unbiased—measures of prediction quality due to the lack of adequate sample size. We should not place confidence in holdout estimators under conditions wherein the sample variance is both large and unknown. More poigniantly, our training experiments on limited data (Duersch and Catanach, 2021) show that even if we could improve estimator quality under these conditions, the typical training trajectory may never even encounter generalizable models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗